“We aren’t going to take any old deal,” Trudeau said Friday at a town hall in Nanaimo, British Columbia. “Canada is willing to walk away from Nafta if the United States proposes a bad deal.
We won’t be pushed around.” (link)
The backdrop is important context here. Prime Minister Twinkles has been watching Trump, Ross, Mnuchin and Lighthizer closely. Two months ago Twinkles attempted to launch economic leverage by entering direct trade discussions with China; but there’s a problem – Twinkles actually believes Beijing is ‘playful panda’. PM Rainbow-brite doesn’t grasp that Playful Panda is a mask. [Wrong place for leverage.]
Trudeau is willing to open his door to Chairman Xi without realizing once inside Beijing will hold open the door for arriving goods, and shuttle out the Canadian manufacturers. Attachment to China is a one-way proposition; and China only indulged Canada from the context of using the Canadian NAFTA door, as a tariff workaround to gain entry to the U.S. market.
If Trump shuts the NAFTA door, the entire dynamic changes for China and Prince Rainbow Sparkles will discover he’s in bed with the dragon. As Wilbur Ross would say: “how’s that trade leverage working out for you?”
Think about it.
Take your time.
Now,…. simultaneous to this really bad panda trade-planning strategy, Canada has committed to the new and improved “Comprehensive and Progressive TPP” (CPTPP) without realizing that Japanese PM Shizo Abe has played the same hand as Chairman Xi Jinping; it was too easy.
The same reason China let Trudeau talk trade is the same reason ASEAN players were willing to make concessions to get Canada in TPP. The Asian manufacturing markets are all looking for doors to the U.S. market; they don’t particularly care about Canadian “Comprehensive and Progressive” politically correct market share.
Canada jumped into deals with China and ASEAN economies as protection from U.S. NAFTA withdrawal. However, the benefits to trade relations with Canada (for China and ASEAN economies) only exists so long as NAFTA is in place.
Without NAFTA China will shift terms to Canada; and the “Comprehensive and Progressive” TPP concessions (CPTPP) will evaporate.
So who needs NAFTA more as a result: Canada or the U.S.?
Wait, huh… wha?…
Yep. Canada went toward China and TPP as leverage in NAFTA negotiations. The problem is that move ultimately made Canada’s position weaker in NAFTA negotiations with Team U.S.A. because Beijing/ASEAN primarily entertain Canada as a NAFTA access route.
(Bloomberg) Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made some of his most aggressive comments to date on dealing with U.S. demands to rework the North American Free Trade Agreement, adding he still thinks he can get the right deal for his country.
“We aren’t going to take any old deal,” Trudeau said Friday at a town hall in Nanaimo, British Columbia. “Canada is willing to walk away from Nafta if the United States proposes a bad deal. We won’t be pushed around.”
His comments come days after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to get tough on trade, though he didn’t single out Nafta, in his State of the Union address. The latest round of Nafta talks wrapped up in Montreal on Monday, with all sides saying there had been progress, while acknowledging significant gaps remain on some issues.
Trudeau said the 24-year-old pact has been good for both Canada and the U.S. and a reworked deal could still be reached. “Canceling it would be extremely harmful and disruptive to people in the United States,” Trudeau said.
“We are going to keep negotiating in good faith,” he added. “We are confident we are going to be able to get to the right deal for Canada, not just any deal.” (read more)