Too funny. The economic pretending is so strong almost every outlet leads the Gross Domestic Product news release by saying “better than expected.” Duh! The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases the GDP date for the second quarter (Q2) and shows a 3.0% jump in economic growth.
We say “duh”, because it was an entirely predictable result. Why, because imports are a deduction to the GDP equation and imports dropped 30.3% in the second quarter (Table 1, line 19). We said this was going to happen because there was a surge of imported goods in the first quarter as companies tried to be proactive with orders in advance of tariffs.
That massive influx of imports made the Q1 GDP weak (-0.5%). Conversely, with all those goods delivered in the first quarter, the products were not imported in Q2 and the GDP rebounded. The lack of imports, ultimately the lack of deduction, resulted in a 5.18% positive change to the second quarter GDP (Table 2, line 47).

[Source, Table 2, Line 47]
But wait, the winning doesn’t stop there. Remember, the Big Beautiful Bill just passed in July. That means fixed asset investment is likely to expand in Q3 because 100% expensing on capital investment was part of the BBB.
But wait, there’s more. Annual wages spiked 4.4% — double the rate of inflation (2.1%). That means people are growing their wage incomes twice as fast as prices are rising. Real wage growth is back again! Yes, REAL WAGE GROWTH.
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