Thank you to everyone who is taking the time to explain the downstream impacts of fuel shortages in citizen led recovery efforts – to any public official or agency contact who will listen.  Using every possible communicative tool in your network is working.
Good News – FEMA “Task Force Irma” is listening and pushing the message upward toward critical “leadership”. We received the following email last night:

FYI… following your reports. We are supplying millions of gallons of fuel. I have used your posts to provide leadership insights into life in much of the state. Prayers are with you.

Best Regards,

Steve Shea

STEVEN W. SHEA
Defense Logistics Agency
Liaison Officer to FEMA Region IV DCO
Task Force Irma
4075 Esplande Way
Tallahassee, Florida 32399

My reply:
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As I shared yesterday:

[…] With most hurricane power outages you can find something, usually a tree, that has actually severed the top power line on a neighborhood grid. If the tree is massive, with or without taking down the pole, the tree has to be removed first. If the power company has to remove a tree before they can restore power to an ordinary residential neighborhood, they drop the priority to “some later time”, and move on to quicker repairs… Ergo most of those without power, end Day #3 (September 13), will not see power until their rotation on the tree removal list comes up; sometime around the end of the month (two weeks away), or later.

A case in point.  Check this one out:

You can click on that image to make it massive.
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President Donald Trump, First-Lady Melania Trump, Vice-President Mike Pence and Second-Lady Karen Pence are all heading to Florida to visit first-responders, rescue and recovery workers and see the challenges first hand – Tomorrow:

Press Secretary Sarah Sanders has shared an expectation that President Trump and First Lady Melania are going to be in the Naples and Fort Myers area; that’s Lee County in Southwest Florida.
I’m hopeful the President brings Homeland Security Advisor Tom Bossert with him to review rescue, recovery and rebuilding efforts.  As a Floridian I find myself having high confidence in Bossert’s articulate approach focusing on root issues, getting government out of the way, and not getting dragged in the weeds and paralysis of bureaucratic analysis. [If there’s one cat who can figure out the logistics of the fuel issues, Bossert seems like the guy to deliver.]
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This is a great picture:

Heck, that’s a blessed picture.  Bigly.

If anyone with with an analysis background has the time to run some stats, I’d love to see what your results would be to overcoming this fuel problem and the duration of it.
teekay has some initial thoughts:
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Did you ever read that little story about the kid walking down the beach throwing starfish in the water, when the old man says he can’t save all of them, so why bother?  Well, that a parable for Day #2 in Irma’s impact zones.  That parable also explains why this follow-up is reaching y’all well after midnight on Sept. 13th.
[Hurricane relief work is a little like keeping a farmers schedule. As I understand it, the work schedule of a farmer extends the necessary shift until the job is done, which has entirely nothing to do with a clock…]
I said yesterday I thought that 50% of the residents of South Florida might be home.  I was wrong.  That estimation was overstated. Maybe a third of the regular residents were home on Day #1 – a few more showed up today (Day #2)…. and based on south-bound traffic observed, a whole bunch more are in in route tonight.
They ain’t going to like what awaits.
First things first.  Yes, we found fuel – it took driving past 47 empty gas stations to find one open with fuel.   More than 100 cars (easily) were around the block for this station at 8am.  We dispatched a volunteer to wait in line, and went about doing what we could w/out fuel, SCOUT.  Three hours later 40 ten gal cans caught up with us.  Oh, and another station opened around noon.
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We are on the road headed back in to coastal SWFL now.  We have immediate wellness checks and assessments to conduct.  I will touch base later.
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 82.6 West. Irma is moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to weaken to a tropical storm this morning and to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.
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There are millions of people without power throughout central and south Florida. As a consequence people are turning to broadcast livestreams available from local media on video platforms.  Here’s two livestream media sources for Tampa and Orlando:
♦West Coast –  Tampa, Bradenton, St. Pete (Manatee and Hillsborough Counties) via ABC Action News:

♦Central Florida – Orlando, Lakeland, Orange, Polk, Osceola, Citrus Counties via WFTV News 9:
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My apologies to those who have written complaining that CTH is not providing the comprehensive coverage of political news.  Unfortunately, home base for all current research consists of three duffel bags, a laptop, generator and a well suited 4×4; loaded with power tools, emergency kits and assorted roughneck supplies.
I will make every effort to return to political research and analysis – as soon as current logistics, community safety and overall concerns with safety/instability are abated.
Fortunately Hurricane Irma is weakening rapidly as the storm made contact with the Florida peninsular at Marco Island.

At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a north-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected by tonight, with that motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the eye of Irma should move near or over the west coast of the Florida Peninsula through Monday morning. Irma should then move inland over northern Florida and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
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Today is a good opportunity to reference the conversations we have discussed about this in the lead up to today.  In 1960 Hurricane Donna drained the Caloosahatchee River in Fort Myers during her NE turn toward Jacksonville.   Ironically That was September 10th, 1960.  The tidal flows will play a role in the pending Storm Surge.
Tampa Bay, moments ago:

The top of the storm is moving water away from the gulf beaches and barrier islands in proportion to the timing of the tide.  However, all of that water -along with the water carried by the storm’s energy, will come back in with the backside of the storm.  And if that times with an incoming tide….  The results are a fast and widespread storm surge, even up river as all the water piles up.
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For those outside the SWFL area, NBC-2 is a local network with exceptional coverage of Hurricane Irma for Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties.  Also, now that Irma is close to the keys the NBC 250 mile radar sweep allows them to follow Irma via their own radar which is far more precise and up to the hour accurate.  NBC-2.Com Website HERE
They also have a livestream Youtube channel NBC2 News HERE (embedded below), and they are broadcasting 24/7 on the storm as she arrives.  This information is far more useful than Weather or National Channel’s.

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