Ground report follows NHC update.  Thankfully the slower forward progress has moderated the most severe and extreme Irma timing with SWFL tidal impacts.  Unfortunately, Tampa and St. Pete are now in the direct impact path. Tampa Bay storm surge is a very serious concern.

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 81.0 West. Irma is moving slowly northwestward away from the north coast of Cuba near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest with an increase in
forward speed is expected through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma is expected to cross the Lower Florida Keys Sunday morning and then move near or along the west coast of Florida Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Irma should then
move inland over the Florida panhandle and southwestern Georgia Monday afternoon.
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As part of FL CERT (Citizens Emergency Response Team), we are forced to reposition outside of the storm surge area.  As a consequence during the logistical move I will be out of the loop for most of the afternoon and evening.  We will respond to recovery efforts from positions East of SWFL.
Hopefully, I’ll be able to check back in and give updates later tonight.

To ensure continuance of communication, CTH has auto-scheduled posts set up throughout the next week which will run automatically without any need for human data entry.  [ie. the website is secure and will function as normal – and site admins are disbursed throughout unaffected timezones]  Other than my absence (hopefully sporadic), you should not see any disruption.
What can YOU DO?
Please pray for the people of Florida.  This is an extremely stressful time for many people, including a significant number of elderly.  Unfortunately, due to modern disconnection a considerable number of people do not have frequent contact with family.
If you know people in Florida, please just reach out to them via social media and let them know they are in your thoughts and prayers.  You don’t have to call them, your don’t need to look for a response, but a short note -just touching base- via social media (facebook etc.), with kind words, can mean the world to people who might be feeling isolated.
Trust me, I’ve been seeing and reassuring those faces all day.  It matters.
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Useful Link -> Florida Disaster Org <- Useful Link

Ground Report.  Many well prepared people are now facing a crisis of a severely dangerous storm surge warning.  CTH readers (Hi Ziiggii) will well note the Hurricane challenges specific to the West Coast and Southwest Gulf Coast community. These unique challenges that have not been tested in 50+ years – Well folks, this is it.  The 130 MPH on-shore winds are timed to arrive with the incoming tide overnight on Sunday into Monday morning.

Due to extreme demand gasoline has been in short supply for the area South and West of Lake-O (Okeechobee) for five days.  Approximately an hour ago, against the backdrop of the latest Hurricane Track -And Upward Projecting Storm Surge of 10 to 15 ft– South West FL officials just added almost a million people to the Mandatory Evacuation Area.  People who were safe last night, based on previous projections, are no longer safe even if well prepared.  Combine it all, and, well, FUBAR:

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Unfortunately the latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows another slight shift westward putting the South and Central West Coast of Florida in the path of immediate concern.  –ADVISORY UPDATE HERE–
If you’ve followed along you might have noticed the ‘worst case scenario’ for the West coast of Florida. –Outlined Here–  However, I want to draw your attention to the forecast timing; because there’s a remarkable synergy lining up with Hurricane Donna from 1960.  First here’s the latest NHC forecast map and times:

Timing is critical here.  Between the two “M”‘s [Max Winds] (2pm Sun, and 2am Mon) you might note the geography of the coastal community, shows an inlet.  That inlet is the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River.  Also known as Punta Rassa.
During 1960 Hurricane Donna the Caloosahatchee River dropped significantly as a result of the powerful Westerly winds from approaching Donna and the local tide.   It looks like the exact same thing might happen again:
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Hide from wind and run from water, is the general rule-of-thumb when it comes to hurricanes and storm surges.  Hurricane Irma is no different.  The scope of potential South Florida areas at risk from storm surge is massive.  –Interactive Link HERE– If you are in one of the evacuation zones, don’t wait – head to a shelter as soon as you can.
NBC-2.com is a great resource for residents in SWFL (Lee, Collier and Charlotte counties). They have a very useful “NewsLinks” section – SEE HERE

At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 77.7 West. Irma is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Irma will move near the north coast of Cuba through Saturday, near the Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.
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BREAKING: Officials: 5.6 million people have been asked to evacuate Florida ahead of Hurricane Irma.

— The Associated Press (@AP) September 8, 2017

Everything that can be done outside for myself, my friends and those in my neighborhood is done.  The remaining stuff is interior prep: filling bathtub and trash cans, w/ water etc. and putting the final touches on bug-out bag and emergency response vehicle w/ pets etc, along with enjoying the final days of air conditioning is what remains.
But boy howdy is the media missing the reality.  As usual the national news heads for Miami and Miami Beach; that’s not the only geography for this one.  For those of you interested here’s actual explanations of SWFL tonight.

Massive numbers of east-coasters came to the west coast based on storm path predictions two days ago.  This only exacerbated the fuel shortage south and West of Lake-O.  Seeing officials saying people need to make final evacuations now, just seems silly.  How do these officials  expect people to leave when there’s been little to no gasoline for days?  Weird.
After checking with people within my network, within the rescue/recovery process and actual private business interests, everything is closing tonight at 8:00pm and there are no plans for opening ANYTHING until Tuesday.    That’s approximately 4 days of severe hunkering down.
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“A man that hath friends must shewn himself friendly: and THERE is a friend that sticketh closer than a brother.”

~ Proverbs 18:24

 

Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert gives an update on preparations for Hurricane Irma, recovery from Hurricane Harvey, and takes questions from the press:

We are blessed to have solid leadership in key and critical positions. Tom Bossert represents one of the best.
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Taking a break to cool down in the AC and provide some understanding to the unique challenges the media appears to be missing for Hurricane Irma.
Florida is a long state peninsular 450 miles. In many logistical ways it’s more comparable to an island, with one-way in via land, from the North.
There’s never been a South to North Hurricane experienced or predicted like this.
The closest was Donna in 1960. There’s been massive population growth since then.
South Florida is attempting to evacuate North. Those who already left are running out of gas mid-state. Fuel trucks are needed mid-state to keep that traffic headed north. The fuel trucks headed into the state are stopping mid state, North of Lake O.  Port Everglades is an East Coast distribution hub for fuel via Atlantic side delivery for I-95 and Monroe County.
It is understandable, and entirely necessary; but those south of Lake O (on the West Coast) have been unable to locate consistent fuel supplies since this boxcar effect began two days ago. The state emergency teams are trying to keep the top of the line moving forward. Again, understandable. However, those South of Lake O are stuck without fuel. No-one’s fault, it’s just the way it is.  Millions of people.
Those of you who have been reading here for a few days will note the issues we outlined with a South to North Hurricane that tracks the West Coast of Florida. Unfortunately, the latest forecasts are predicting exactly that. Governor Rick Scott is trying to evacuate the South West Gulf Coast, however the fuel issues noted above are impeding that possibility.
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For those who might not be familiar there’s massive and widespread price gouging taking place right now in “South Florida”.   The predators know how to maneuver around the areas distant from govt offices and checks.  Florida AG Pam Bondi is calling out the individual companies and their franchise holders. THANK YOU.
CTH has had our differences with AG Bondi in the past, but she’s a wolverine on a righteous mission right now – Directly calling out 7-11 stores and Chevron.

Florida is a massive state.  Most of what we are seeing on the news is completely incorrect about “South Florida”.  There’s “south florida” (as defined by South of I-4), and then there’s “south florida” (as defined by Lake O).  There’s a considerable amount of simmering chaos in South Florida south of Lake O.
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