Information from the National Hurricane Center [DATA HERE] indicates currently slow-moving Tropical Storm Idalia will likely speed up quickly tomorrow and form a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.  The current cone of uncertainty puts the Northern and Western portion of Florida at greatest risk.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Idalia will come fast, most likely making landfall at a category 2 hurricane.  Those in the cone of uncertainty should pay attention, and people in the Tampa and St Pete region who have really lucked out in the past 30 years, should pay very close attention.

I hope you will understand why my proactive tips, advice and planning have modified since our experience with the September 2022 Hurricane, Ian. {Go Deep} Thankfully Idalia is not expected to be anything similar to Ian.  However, for those in the Tampa/St Pete area, do not be complacent.   This is a large metropolitan area with a similar demographic to the impact zone of Ian.

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The next sixty days are peak hurricane and storm season for the Southeast coast.  While we all hope for a non-eventful next few months, several people have requested a repost of the lessons from Hurricane Ian.  I am duplicating that information for sharing and bookmarking in case you missed it last year.

[Current Tropical Status per NHC]

The ‘context’ of Ian was shared previously {Go Deep}.  What follows below are things to consider if you are prepping for a hurricane impact and/or deciding whether to stay in your home or evacuate.  Standard hurricane preparations should always be followed.  Protect your family, secure your property and belongings, and prepare for the aftermath.

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Everything about the Maui fire is sketchy.  It was sketchy when it happened. It is sketchy in the aftermath, and it remains sketchy in the recovery stage.  The FBI, EPA and FEMA have essentially locked down the island, and there are reports of people being evicted who did not perish and did not lose their homes.

I’m not sure if the issues are related to systemically gross incompetence, nefarious constructs, a blue state with poor systems and weak leaders, or a combination of all the above.  However, what is abundantly clear is that the people of Maui are victims of more than just a massive wildfire.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green appears on “Face the Nation” to tell Margareet Brennan that the failure of the now-resigned Maui Emergency Management Agency Administrator was “utterly unsatisfactory, to the world.” “Of course, as a person, as a father, as a doctor, I wish all the sirens went off,” Green said.  The governor also stated there are more than 1,000 people still missing and many of them are children.  He blames global warming. WATCH:

[Transcript] –  MARGARET BRENNAN: We go now to Hawaii’s Governor Joshua Green in Honolulu. Good morning. Thank you for getting up so early, and I’m so sorry for what is going on in your state.

GOV. JOSH GREEN: Thank you, Margaret.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Governor, can you tell us how many are still unaccounted for, and how long will it take to identify remains?

GOV. GREEN: More than 1000 are unaccounted for, about 1050. It will take several weeks, still, some of the challenges are going to be extraordinary. As you reported, 85% of the- of the land of the impact zone has been covered now by what amounts to an army of search and rescue teams and 41 dogs. So 85% of the land has been covered. Now we go into the larger buildings, which require peeling back some of the floors and structures. That last 15% could take weeks. We do have extreme concerns that because of the temperature of the fire, the remains of those who have died, in some cases, may be impossible to recover meaningfully. So, there are going to be people that are lost forever. And right now, we’re working obviously with the FBI and everyone on the ground to make sure that we do what we can to assess who’s missing.

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We loaded a CERT toolbox trailer yesterday that is heading to Mississippi to assist as recovery efforts get underway.  Samaritan’s Purse is now on the ground in two locations, Rolling Fork and Armory [Register to Volunteer Here]  Any Treepers in the impact zone check in and feel free to provide updates on the ground events that relate to your area.

(Via Fox News) – Help began pouring into one of the poorest regions of the U.S. after a deadly tornado tore a path of destruction for more than an hour across a long swath of Mississippi, even as furious new storms Sunday struck across the Deep South.

At least 25 people were killed and dozens of others were injured in Mississippi as the massive storm ripped through more than a half-dozen towns late Friday. A man was also killed in Alabama after his trailer home flipped over several times.

“Everything I can see is in some state of destruction,” said Jarrod Kunze, who drove to the hard-hit Mississippi town of Rolling Fork from his home in Alabama, ready to help “in whatever capacity I’m needed.”

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At approximately 8:55pm on February 3rd a major train derailment happened near the border between Ohio and Pennsylvania. In an Ohio town called East Palestine, a Norfolk Southern train pulling 150 cars derailed. 20 of those cars were carrying hazardous materials, including a liquified substance called “Vinyl Chloride.”

A massive explosion and fire resulted from the derailment and the nature of the cargo. In an effort to mitigate the problem, responding emergency authorities dug a trench and allowed the chemicals to burn off into the atmosphere. However, vinyl chloride turns into hydrochloric acid when it mixes with water vapor. The resulting chemical toxins can travel with wind, forming toxic clouds.

Several people in the downwind region from the initial explosion have reported health issues. Additionally, animals and fish have been reported to have been killed in the zone where the chemical cloud traveled.

There is now increasing concern about longer term impacts from the release of the chemicals including vinyl chloride.

Norfolk Southern and the EPA released the full list of chemicals that were being transported, they include:

♦Vinyl chloride: a colorless gas that is used to make polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plastics and is highly flammable and decomposes to make toxic fumes. According to the National Library of Medicine, it is also carcinogenic and can cause other health issues.

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Hurricane conditions are expected from Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line along the coast in Florida tonight.  However, do not focus only on the center of the storm. Hurricane winds extend 25 miles from center, tropical storm winds 400+ miles from center, and massive rain are anticipated over central Florida with significant flooding north of Lake O.  Residents along coastal and inland waterways should be fully prepared for this storm.  Overnight conditions will deteriorate rapidly.

At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 78.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north and north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Thursday. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and into the Carolinas Friday.

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While all attention is on the outcome of the national election, a storm notice for Florida is essential.

The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

All Florida east coast residents should pay attention to local officials and state emergency management for guidance in advance of Nicole’s arrival.  All storm preparation should be rushed to completion within the next several hours.  Nicole is anticipated to deliver storm impacts far beyond the immediate hurricane zone.

(Nation Hurricane Center) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas today and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night.

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The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

[NOTE: Florida West Coast – Nicole is a large system with tropical storm force winds extending for 380 miles from center.  For SWFL residents in the debris and recovery zone from Ian, the winds from Nicole will be coming from the North, starting soon. Keep this in mind when securing already destabilized structures, roof tarps, fences, debris etc. Anticipate tropical storm force winds arriving from the North tomorrow.]

(NHC) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida. (more)

The majority of my advice below is for the Florida EAST COAST:

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The ‘context’ of Ian was shared previously {Go Deep}.  Here we outline things to consider if you are prepping for a hurricane impact and/or deciding whether to stay in your home or evacuate.  Standard hurricane preparations should always be followed.  Protect your family, secure your property and belongings, and prepare for the aftermath.

What you do before the hurricane hits is going to determine where you are in the recovery phase.

Additionally, and this should be emphasized and discussed within your family, if you cannot be self-sufficient in the aftermath – for any reason, then you should evacuate.

Self-sufficiency in this context requires being able to cope for up to several weeks:

(1) potentially without power; (2) potentially without potable running water (3) potentially without internet service; (4) potentially without communication outside the region; and (5) with limited municipal and private sector assistance.   If you decide you cannot deal with these outcomes, you should evacuate.

Additionally, as a family or individual, you should also honestly evaluate:

(1) your physical abilities; (2) your emotional and psychological ability to withstand extreme pressures; and (3) your comfort in losing daily routines, familiar schedules and often overlooked things you might take for granted.  Post hurricane recovery is fraught with stress, frustration and unforeseeable challenges.

I saw a video presented by a structural engineer who was sharing his experience with Hurricane Ian.  I am going to use his video for a few references because even with professional credentials, some of the common mistakes people make are highlighted in his experience.  Keep in mind his video is taken about 30 miles inland from where the majority impact area (coastal region) is located.

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Many CTH readers know I have been involved in hurricane prep and recovery as a longtime member of a civilian emergency response team.  I have physically been through four direct hurricane impacts and responded to recovery efforts in more than fifteen locations, often staying for days or weeks after the initial event.

Through the years I have advised readers on best practices for events before, during and after the storm. In this outline my goal is to take the experience from Hurricane Ian and overlay what worked and what doesn’t work from a perspective of the worst-case scenario.

Hurricane Ian was a worst-case scenario.

Let me be clear from the outset, I am not advising anyone to put greater weight on my opinion or ignore local emergency officials or professionals in/around the disaster areas. What I am going to provide below is my own experience after decades of this stuff, against the backdrop of Ian, and just provide information that you may wish to consider if you are ever faced with a similar situation.

Hurricane preparation can be overlaid against other types of disaster preparation, there are some commonalities.  However, for the sake of those who live on/around the U.S. coastal areas where hurricanes have traditionally made impact, the specifics of preparation for this type of storm are more pertinent.  I’m going to skip over the basic hurricane preparation and get into more obscure and granular details, actual stuff that matters, that many may not be familiar with.

Let me start by sharing a graphic that you may overlay with the information you may have already seen from national media coverage.  The graphic below shows Hurricane Ian in relation to Southwest Florida and points to locations that you may have seen on the news.  The context of understanding Ian is going to be critical when contemplating preparation, so it must be emphasized.

This satellite image was likely taken around 4 to 7 pm on the evening of September 28, 2022, approximately three hours after Hurricane Ian officially made landfall at Bokeelia, a small community on the Northern end of Pine Island. All of my discussion below is from the ‘major impact zone’.

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