We said it was happening {Go Deep}, and it is.  Last month CTH put the preparation window at 60 days +/- depending on region.  That window is now around 30 days before the next spike in inflation shows up from cumulative costs snowballing throughout the supply chain. The “producer price index” is essentially the tracking of wholesale prices at three stages: Origination (commodity), Intermediate and Final.

The final product inflation rate in July (reported in August) was alarming at 7.8%. However, we warned it would get worse. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) then released stunning price data for October [DATA Here], showing an even more dramatic 8.6% price increase in final demand. More intense warnings shared.

Today, we get the November BLS Result [DATA Here], and unfortunately the results are showing what was expected.  The cumulative costs of massive increases in energy prices are building into the supply at an astonishing rate.  The November data shows a rate of wholesale final goods inflation at 9.6%, the largest single month comparative rate increase in history.

The bureau even went back and revised/increased the August price index from 7.8 to 8.4 percent, and revised/increased the October figure from 8.6 to 8.8 percent.  The average monthly price increase is almost a full percent… every month.  It looks like the BLS backward revisions are an attempt to smooth down the rate of increase.

(BLS) – “The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.6 percent in each of the 3 prior months. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index rose 9.6 percent for the 12 months ended in November, the largest advance since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.” (more)

I modified Table A (final demand product pricing), taking out some of the noise to make it a little easier to see the big picture of what is happening.

When you see the wholesale level of prices almost double the increase in consumer level inflation rate, you can predict that consumer prices will likely go even higher.  Future finished goods, at a retail level, will carry the current wholesale price increase.

Stuff costs a lot now… and because the inbound stuff to make the finished goods is still climbing in price…. stuff is about to cost even more.   You can see this in the inflation rate of intermediate goods which I have highlighted below.

(more…)

Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

(more…)

The NBC media panel for Meet the Press is absolutely apoplectic about their inability to destroy President Donald Trump and his supportive base of pragmatic, awakened Americans.   The pearl-clutching and fear are palpable, as the leftist roundtable contemplates future elections that may deconstruct decades of election control, manipulation, fraud and falsehood.

What the panel of John Heilemann, Marianna Sotomayor, Kimberly Atkins Stohr and Brendan Buck really fear is the pesky system within our constitutional republic we call ‘federalism’.   They need to keep their attacks against Donald Trump cast in the role of eliminating baby Hitler simply to avoid confronting the flaws in their own ideological arguments.  They fear freedom. They need the collective. Individual liberty is against their own sense of self and purpose.

If you listen through their nonsense (not for the faint of heart), all of the panel apoplexy boils down to individual states in control of their own elections.  What they fear is federalism itself, which makes sense when you remind yourself there are two generations of leftists who were taught that collectivism (the we are the world crap), where only one centralized federal government, of all consuming power and authority, should be allowed to make decisions.  WATCH:

While it would be fun to debate a group like this, the core of their fear is a diminishing ability to control.  As CTH reminds frequently, the need for control is a reaction to fear. This applies in all levels of social society from elections to COVID responses.  Elites need control, because at their core they fear the inherent inequity of freedom.

Sally Struthers pleads into the camera for donations to feed the starving child in her arms in Africa… leftists swoon, and the U.N. activates.  Meanwhile, some pragmatist watching the commercial leans over to her husband and says, “I wonder why the cameraman didn’t just give the kid a sandwich”?

Control is a reaction to fear. Think in terms of politics and society – the fear behind leftist politics is the fear that someone might withhold things (opportunities, money, whatever) from me.  Fear that if you live your life in a way I dislike that it might affect my life. Fear that if you get that job, there will be nothing left for me. Fear that if you make tons of money, it means there’s less money out there for me. So, people who believe in leftist ideologies seek control as a means of trying to create guarantees and safeguards against those circumstances they fear.

The DC UniParty knows exactly how to exploit that fear, and both Democrats and Republicans love to provide those guarantees and safeguards.

(more…)

At the most troubling level, Joe Biden believes what people tell him to say for the reason they tell him to say it.  This reality underscores the reason why Barack Obama’s network selected Biden as their disposable front man in 2020.  Biden sounds convinced, because Biden is convinced.  He’s wrong, factually and fundamentally wrong, but he believes what he repeats in public.

The most painfully obvious examples of this dynamic are present when Joe Biden explains economic things based on what other people have told him.  The guy really is the modern personification of the naked emperor parading around to show off an invisible coat that he genuinely believes he’s wearing. The self-deception would be embarrassing except for the fact he is only deceiving himself; so people laugh…. but this is dangerous.

Questioned today about inflation, Joe Biden starts talking about his Build Back Better program.  It really is worth watching to see how oddly emphatic he is in the belief that if government pays for a thing (childcare, healthcare, prescriptions) the cost of that thing somehow mysteriously disappears.

Biden believes that if government subsidizes something there is no longer a cost associated with it.  He believes this.

Setting aside the historic fact/truth that anything government pays or subsidizes ultimately costs more, the real cognitive dissonance in Biden’s worldview is that any cost associate with a ‘thing‘ disappears if the government pays for that ‘thing’.   From that bizarre viewpoint, the disappearance of public expense for that government subsidized thing then creates “deflation”, or a lowering in overall prices.

This claim is abject nonsense.  Truly and genuinely batshit crazy nonsense.

Example.  According to Joe Biden’s talking point: if government pays for college education, the price of a college student’s car drops.  It doesn’t.  To make that claim is absurd in the extreme.   The college student may have more money to pay for a car if they are not paying for tuition, but the car itself doesn’t change in price.

A person may have more money to pay for groceries if they are not paying for childcare expenses, but the price of the groceries doesn’t change.   The inflation on the prices of products at the grocery store does not change just because some families no longer have daycare expenses.   But Joe Biden believes it does.   (more…)

If you have purchased your ticket to ride the Ronacoaster, Dr. Anthony Fauci now delivers the statement all ticket-holders were waiting for.  Ronacoaster 2.0 is under construction.  Notice how Fauci uses the word “we”, and even quantifies the term “we” by saying himself “and the pharmaceutical companies”, are prepared to start delivering variant specific vaccines as soon as the political scientists call for them.

This is the big tell, perhaps the biggest and most anticipated ‘tell’, that many were waiting to see.

This means each time some opaque entity within the system of world health identifies a “variant” of COVID-19, the business end of the process will trigger a vaccine response to keep the Ronacoaster wheels greased with taxpayer funds.

WATCH, and listen carefully to Fauci’s definition of who the decision-makers are.   This is a remarkable amount of sunlight on the motive:

.

Keep asking:

…”WHO IS THIS ‘WE‘ YOU SPEAK OF?”

This directly ties to the recent statement of New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Arden, saying the Ronacoaster is a ride that will never end.

(more…)

Considering the recent Democrat freakout over the ‘economic narrative‘, which included a request for corporate media to circle the wagons, their desperation is starting to make sense.

Patrick Murray is a notoriously partisan pollster from Monmouth University {use searchbar}.  Leftist favorite Murray puts the spin in spin-master when it comes to media polling and narrative engineering.

The Monmouth engineer recently released a heavily spun poll warning the communists and leftist Democrats, showing checkbook issues are the top concern priority for Americans – far beyond any concern about the COVID madness.

Keep in mind, Murray skews polls in extraordinary ways; however, yet even Monmouth cannot avoid seeing that 29% of leftist Americans are very concerned with inflation, while only 18% are concerned with COVID [pdf here].  Monmouth’s polls are always skewed with responses from the DNC base, so consider that result amid their own tribe.  Democrats are twice as worried about their household bills and inflation as they are worried about Omicron or any variant therein.

This explains the massive freakout in the backrooms of the White House and DNC at the moment.  Their economic policy chickens are coming home to roost.

“Concerns about inflation have taken center stage in discussions around America’s kitchen tables. And, as one would expect, many are placing the blame squarely on Washington,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. (link)

When you ignore the public spin Murray puts on the polling (Republicans horrible etc), the bottom line is devastating for Democrats.  This aligns with a recent Wall Street Journal survey showing that Latinos are flocking to the Republican Party, and there is now an even 50/50 split amid Hispanic voters.

(more…)

Many people on these pages said this was likely to happen; unfortunately, they were correct.   Alarming reports now coming from California about school districts vaccinating students without the consent of their parents.

In the video example below the students in this Los Angeles school were enticed with the promise of pizza for their compliance, and the students were told not to tell their parents. I cannot fathom the rage I would personally feel if I were one of those parents. WATCH:

(more…)

There’s a lot of convoluted internal stuff, but essentially Mitch McConnell is going to set up a process for Democrats in the Senate to raise the debt ceiling by themselves.

Mitch will enlist the usual Decepticon suspects to change the senate rules, for one-time only, allowing democrats to raise the debt ceiling without having to enter negotiations and concessions for anything republican lawmakers want (like eliminating the Biden spending bill).

McConnell will need nine more republicans to change the process, but it looks like he’s going to be successful.

This will permit Democrats to raise the debt ceiling by approximately $2 trillion, so they can continue debate on Biden’s Build Back Better bill.   Yeah, Uniparty gonna Uniparty.

WASHINGTON DC – […] The Senate minority leader spent Tuesday selling his members on a convoluted strategy that would require at least 10 Republicans to approve legislation that would later allow Senate Democrats to raise the debt ceiling by a simple majority vote. After a leadership meeting and a Senate GOP lunch, McConnell said he’d done enough work to clinch the deal in a vote expected on Thursday. (read more)

So the Senate DeceptiCons will *claim* to be against the multi-trillion ‘Build Back Better’, fundamental change, spending bill.  Yet they will have facilitated the Democrats not having to negotiate or eliminate anything inside the BBB bill, by removing the leverage of the debt ceiling raise.  Yep, Uniparty gotta Uniparty – all courtesy of the DeceptiCon caucus.  I hate them.

President Donald Trump notes the Mitch McConnell nonsense in a statement:

(more…)

Approximately three years ago New Zealand’s smiley-faced Fascist Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, replaced Angela Merkel as the female messiah to the global progressive movement. Everything about Arden, including her worldviews on politics, is carefully controlled and scripted for public display {Go Deep}.

Prime Minister Arden rose to international prominence on her virtue signaling around climate change.  The evolution of her leftist credentials continued with COVID-19 ideology including her positions on virus mitigation, insane lockdowns, geographic bubble dictates and her over-the-top vaccine mandate push.

Today the New Zealand Prime Minister appears on camera to say there will never be an endpoint to the objectives around SARS-CoV-2, including the need for an endless series of booster jabs that will require government enforcement. WATCH (30 seconds):

.

Semi-related…

(more…)

An inevitable evolution now takes place as rampant crime, violence and anarchy take over the municipal regions controlled by leftists and Democrats.  What is described, in the video excerpt from ABC news in Maryland, is what we have described as the “Safari Rules.”

As stunning as it may seem at first glance, the media are informing the public on how to behave when entering any area were Democrats are in charge of civil society.  It is important not to accept this new normal; instead think about this broadcast in the larger picture of what it represents.  The media no longer question if you will be attacked; the media are now advising us on how to mitigate our pending attack.  The attack itself is a foregone conclusion.

.

The deeper blue the region, the more dangerous the crime within it.  This is the natural outcome of policy on a local level that allows criminal elements to operate without fear or accountability.   Smash and grab robberies, armed robberies, carjacking, looting and the general breakdown of law and order is well underway in the municipal regions under the control of the Democrat Party apparatus.

These outcomes are the natural cause and effect from leftist policy being carried out.  This is exactly the type of social anarchy that is predictable from a process of demonizing law enforcement, promoting social justice and letting the criminal elements within society take over.

The evolution of the Safari Rules has been ongoing for several years; however, now it appears the point of no return has been crossed.   The situation is no longer reversible because the law enforcement mechanisms have been deconstructed entirely.   Additionally, the application of law and consequence has been withdrawn from the system.

(more…)