There is a general rule that applies to geopolitical contexts surrounding 96 hours or four days.  The timing is the difference between an event happening Day one, the analysis of the event by nation states communicated to leadership, and the policy shift outcome in Day four.  The rule of 96 is consistent and it is worth understanding.

Four days ago, the EU oil disruption from Saudi Arabia’s East/West pipeline event was noticed. In the four days between event day and policy day (#4) the EU have been beating the drumbeat for war against Russia.  However, you will notice the shift in tone and policy now that we have reached day four.  Analysis has reached policy makers. You might say reality sets in.

Europe now recognizes a vulnerability that was not in their policy briefs 96 hours earlier.  Things change {SOURCE}, and the quiet stuff starts to become visible. Russia has been sending France oil/gas energy products, quietly. Macron needed the internal stabilization because he’s been up against a wall.  On top of all his other issues, Macron could not afford an energy crisis.

Simultaneously, despite what we have been told by Western media, the 5,000 strike drones into the Moscow region should again be taken in context.  Russia is an analog system in a digital world. Russia is exceptionally resilient and can repair and recover much faster than western analysts ever fathom.  Again, apply the ‘rule of 96.’

Russia is now overproducing diesel fuel. Wait, what(?) you might ask.  It’s true.  Russian strategic diesel fuel reserves are now full and overproducing 15% beyond storage capacity. {SOURCE} So, where is the excess capacity going?  To the “stans” in Central Asia, from there it ships to forward destinations. Turkey is a dependent beneficiary. Do you remember the strategic agreement between the USA and Kazakhstan? {Source}

Russia increased diesel supplies to Mongolia by 73.4% in August from July to 215,000 metric tons, while shipments to Kyrgyzstan surged 16.4 times to 72,000 tons and deliveries to Tajikistan rose 3.5 times to 56,000 tons. Russia also exported 28,000 tons of diesel to Kazakhstan after making no deliveries there in July. {source}

As the Saudi energy disruption, a problem that travels like boxcar impacts in a train collision, now reaches the EU, the NATO alliance begins to react.  Their policy briefs are different than they were four days ago.

Saudi Arabia is now producing again on the previously closed East/West pipeline; however, it will take time to reach the EU.   A policy window is opened by the disruption.  This is the window where President Trump is operating, and it is timed with the UN General Assembly meeting.

On the potash announcement by President Trump and subsequent notes by Belarussian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, remind yourself that potash is not sold by government – it is sold by companies, from one to the other.  Lukashenko is an ally of Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin.  Lukashenko has one foot in the EU perspective and the other in the Russian perspective.

Potash from Belarus can be potash from Belarus.  Potash from Belarus can also be potash from Russia.  Again, companies are involved and should be considered when government officials make announcements. There is no shortage of potash from Russia, but there are political constraints from anything surrounding Russia.

A company who does business in Belarus and Russia is not uncommon.  Belarus may not officially have potash to deliver (Lukashenko), but also potash can be abundant in supplies as inventories by companies who do business with Belarus (John Coale).   Who is John Coale?  Where was John Coale, U.S. special envoy for Belarus, four days ago?

TALLINN, Estonia (AP) — Belarus’ authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko met with a U.S. envoy on Tuesday to push for the lifting of the remaining U.S. sanctions against his country.

Speaking at a meeting with John Coale, the U.S. special envoy for Belarus, Lukashenko said that “we have reached quite a few agreements related to our economic ties.” He urged Washington to help unblock some Belarusian assets he said were “stuck in Citibank.”

[…] Speaking before the meeting with Coale, Lukashenko said that he’s open for discussing “a deal big or small.” Lukashenko also said that he would like to discuss the prospects for lifting more U.S. sanctions, exporting Belarusian fertilizers to the U.S. (more)

Who controls the sanctions of the Belarusian assets held in Citibank?  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Four days ago, John Coale was in discussions with Lukashenko.  The Belarus President wanted something, President Trump wanted something.  At the same moment Saudi Arabia was notifying the EU of a force majeure issue with oil/gas contract supplies.  Four days ago, Russia had maxed out storage for diesel fuel and was shipping excess capacity to Central Asia, as President Trump was asking Volodymyr Zelenskyy not to target Russian diesel refining capacity.

Things change in four days.

Policies change in four days.

Perspectives change in four days.

One of the strengths of President Trump, primarily a strength that stems from business, is that Trump understands the timeline of action and visible consequence.  Trump is working four days (or more) ahead of what we see in the media.  It may not make sense at the moment we see it but give it four days and go look at it again.

Live your best life.  Pray thankfulness every day to a loving God.

Find your internal peace; then relax and let him work.