Many people have requested that I outline some context on the Iran conflict; so, here it is.
What follows is my own researched perspective on the challenge that President Trump is facing. I anticipate the non-interventionists will not be happy with it, and also the Israel First crowd will not like the brutal pragmatism of it. Alas, having spent a great deal of time watching things unfold, here’s my take.
Start with this question: Considering all the years the debate over Iran’s nuclear ambitions has persisted, why haven’t its strongest allies, China and Russia, ever provided Iran with a nuclear weapon?
Now, before anyone jumps into the nuclear non-proliferation perspective, let me remind you we are not going to pretend things here. You can pretend that Beijing didn’t give the DPRK nuclear weapons by pretending that North Korea isn’t a proxy province of China. Or you can stop pretending. The choice is yours!
So, what’s different? Well, in the DPRK example, Beijing holds the control mechanism. For Iran, giving religious fanatics a nuclear weapon would be tantamount to giving the Muslim Brotherhood the ability to start World War III.
As recently noted, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman urged President Trump not to back down from this moment of consequence and to eliminate the Iranian threat once and for all. MbS is about as close to a Middle East pragmatist as you can find. In response, a desperate British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed to Saudi Arabia hoping to change the position of MbS. Great Britain is almost out of fuel.
That’s a good place to start looking at the regional perspectives.
Islamic extremists, religious zealots, fanatics, cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons. Even those who are sympathetic to the Iranian regime, particularly Turkey and Qatar, are pragmatic about this issue.
Nuclear weapons must never fall into the hands of Hezbollah, Hamas, al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (ISIS), al-Nusra, and all of the extreme -perhaps most authentic- factions of Islam are included in that outlook.
While it is true that Israel has carried out a brutal, over-the-top, offensive against Hamas in Gaza, it is also true that Egypt – via President al-Sisi, spent two years destroying Hamas terror tunnels on the Egyptian-Gaza border and installed a five-layer security perimeter to keep the Islamist “Palestinians” out of the Sinai.
President Sisi (Egypt) and King Abdullah (Jordan) do not want to import Palestinian Hamas promoters, despite their very public opposition to the offensive methods of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
♦ The Muslim Brotherhood represents the political face of extremist (authentic) Islam. Turkish President Recep Erdogan is one of the zookeepers keeping the big cat cages under control, while simultaneously using the big cats to draw an audience.
Qatar is the banking side of The Muslim Brotherhood, feeding the big cats and providing them indulgences to keep them satiated. The intelligence services of Israel (Mossad) and the USA (CIA) are involved in this process.
When it comes to authentic Islam, you might say that essentially Mossad and the CIA are the physical cages, while Turkey (Recep Erdogan) and Qatar (Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani) are the zookeepers.
Turkey the gateway to Europe, is a NATO member not a NATO ally. Qatar has a foot in both the lawfully constrained western world and a foot in the religious fanaticism world. While the tightrope walking might seem difficult both Turkish President Recep Erdogan and Qatari Amir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani have navigated this dynamic as part of their own influence and affluence operation.
That said, none of the names involved thus far want the rabid faction of the big cats to get a nuclear weapon. President Donald Trump does not want the rabid cats to get a nuclear weapon. None of the voices in the Middle East, sans the fanatical Iranian religious faction, want Iran to have a nuclear weapon.
All of these various regional players have their own individual nuance to retain influence and power. However, on the issue of nuclear weapons they all agree – Iran must never have them, because Iran would represent the biggest threat in the entire world to using them. [Name a weapon that Iran has never used.]
None of Iran’s allies – not Pakistan, not Russia and not China – would ever fathom giving Iran a nuclear weapon, because the leadership of Iran is sketchy, unstable and, well, potentially batsh!t crazy enough to use it. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are just as zero-sum minded as the Islamic clerics they protect.
This accurate and factual baseline of common interest is why you do not see any of the regional voices opposing President Trump’s effort to ensure that Iran NEVER HAS a nuclear weapon?
How strong is that sense of common interest?… Strong enough to accept Israel bombing Iran in support of that common interest. Turkey, aligned in sympathetic voice with the Muslim Brotherhood, hates Israel; but they hate Israel slightly less than they hate the thought of Iran having a nuclear weapon.
So, against the backdrop of Iran rejecting any deal that precludes them from having a nuclear weapon, where does that leave things?
It leaves the entire Middle East in a position to continue supporting President Trump’s effort to stop Iran from ever having a nuclear weapon. It really is that simple.
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria, The UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and yes, even Qatar, are willing to endure a considerable amount of economic pain and internal friction in order to get to the place where Iran stops their nuclear objective.
It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that’s the problem. It’s the Iranian nuclear threat that has always been the problem.
This time, President Donald J Trump is trying to deal with that threat once and for all.
Europe is going bananas because they need oil/gas. The U.K is going bananas because they need oil/gas. Asia is really in a bad place because they too need oil/gas. The energy problem goes all the way to Australia because they too need oil/gas.
The more a nation chased the net-zero carbon, climate change, global warming nonsense, the more they are exposed to the dire Straits of Hormuz. Japan can hold out a little longer with reserves and China can ultimately make do with Russian provision.
Which brings us to the point where President Trump is saying the U.S. will end up having to control the Strait of Hormuz, and we should look for an extension to the Russian sanction relief as a direct consequence of Iran rejecting the terms of JD Vance and the USA delegation.
Now, there are some who claim that Iran doesn’t want a nuclear weapon, and/or Iran has a fatwa against nuclear weapons. These voices are ridiculous. Think about the irrational logic of the claim: Iran is refusing to stop pursuing something they do not want.
♦ It can be argued that Israel is being opportunistic and leveraging the regional support for Trump toward their own interests and objectives. It is a fair criticism to say the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is too militaristic and aggressive. Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy.
In fact, both President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have stated the goals and objectives of the USA and Israel may not be aligned on all matters, and Turkish President Erdogan has been exceptionally critical of Israel’s continued military operation into Lebanon, presumably targeting Hezbollah.
However, there is no indication that Israel is directing President Trump on the issue of a denuclearized Iran.
On the issue of Iran never having nuclear weapons, it has been the stated policy of every U.S. administration for 40+ years, and on that issue the entire Middle East is in agreement.
Thank you Sundance.
It’s an (intentionally) confusing time we’re in. The information warfare is nearly overwhelming and cognitively stressful.
I can’t be 100% certain that your analysis is 100% correct. I do feel 100% that you are a very serious and gifted person, guided by Truth.
Thank you Sundance, and thank you also to your family, particularly your Amazing wife.
You do provide comfort to many souls who are very in need of clarity within this cacophony of chaos…
What is so great about Sundance is that he breaks down extremely difficult political topics in easy to understand terms.
Been reading CTH since 2012 & off the top of my head, I cannot recall any instance in which Sundance’s perspective was wrong. In fact, I consider him to be prescient & will always look to CTH for the truth. I think he’s pretty spot on this time too.
Jared came up with a novel offer in an attempt to close the deal…
Well said! Thank you, Sundance!
MAGA. 👊👊🇺🇸🇺🇸🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thank you for the pragmatic clarity on this issue. A few here have been a bit confused. Pragmatism rules the world in Trumps world. It also rules the middle east and the sane world.
Remove pragmatism from geo politics and flase.gods take over nationalism dies and the imaginary improvements of worldwide communism are sold to the masses.
Why did Trump make Vance the lead in the negotiations?
To give Vance a chance to prove himself?
To use Vance as a cover so his regular negotiators wouldn’t lose face?
Another thought is that Vance isn’t Jewish. And yes, it’s putting Vance out front since 2028 election is in focus
And Jared Kushner is.
So is Whitkoff
Charlotte99
April 12, 2026 4:02 am
MOSSADIL COMMENTARY:
WHY TRUMP SENT JD VANCE
A lot of right-wing voices opposing a war with Iran are aligned with JD Vance. He’s not a hawk. He’s seen as anti-war. And he carries credibility with the Tucker Carlson crowd.
That’s exactly why I think Trump sends him. Not just to negotiate with Iran, but to manage expectations at home.
If a deal is possible, Vance will push hard to find it. If talks fail, no one can say the U.S. sent someone looking for war. That matters for Trump’s base.
Because if Iran rejects terms even from someone like Vance… It sends a very different message.
Problem is Tucker and Candace HATE Vance
That’s a problem for them NOT Vance!
Trump often uses Vance to convey the same message. He is extremely good at it. He has skills and positioning that Trump doesn’t have, and vice-versa.
Gravitas.
Also a possibility – maybe because PDJT’s extremely high level and controversial geopolitical positions translated into his security team NOT wanting him going into Islamabad Pakistan under any circumstances at the present time.
Remember – there are lots of radicals in that country who are just as batsh!t crazy as in Iran. VP Vance is nowhere near as internationally controversial as our President and would likely not have anywhere near as high a price on his head as would PDJT.
reason below.
Didn’t Iran say they only wanted to deal with JD as the lead?
Vance was less prone to get in to and continue the war. Additionally, Witkof and Kushner were involved in the previous negotiations that were ongoing when Trump pulled the trigger. In the Iranians eyes, Vance was the choice that would be most willing to find a path to peace, and added a a small variable of trust since Iran felt betrayed by Witkof and Kushner.
Because Vance is our second highest official which underscores the importance of the mission.
Exquisite explanation!
In the midst of perceived Israeli aggression, I wonder if the women r@ped and the men, women, and children held hostage and murdered by Hamas would characterize Israel’s response as anything but pragmatic and appropriate.
Israel jumped the shark in Gaza, and most people of common sense understand October 7th was allowed to happen to precipitate the opportunity to move on Gaza and the West Bank too.
The gambit failed, due to the Board of Peace, but Israel’s former reputation in the US will never recover.
That’s the pragmatic reality.
I suspect many Israelis are of the same view as to how it all turned out, never forgetting that Netanyahu had suitcases of cash walked in to Gaza to keep a nearly bankrupt Hamas operating.
Or, they will come to that view once a true deep dive into October 7 happens in Israel.
A reckoning should be had, inside Israel.
“Most people with common sense understand Oct. 7 was allowed to happen”
Actually, most people with “common sense” don’t believe that. But the narrative has gained traction among the crowd that hates Israel.
Leet, serious question. With their high level intelligence community, how could they not know? For hours…
They know what/who crosses their borders. It is a question I have been waiting to be answered. I love Israel, just not their govt., they seem to be as corrupt as ours. (President Trump excluded)
Of course that doesn’t mean I am for Iran. Ridiculous anyone has to even explain that. (And I don’t watch any stupid talking heads, so don’t bother going there.)
I watched one very informative documentary on October 7th. One thing that I did not know, that was revealed in the documentary is that some of the perpetrators of Oct. 7th were people that were known and apparently trusted by that community and regularly crossed the border there from Gaza. That may or may not help explain how it happened. I do not contend that Israel’s government is pure as the wind driven snow. But also, I despise the inference that is made that somehow Israel should not have been allowed to retaliate, or that their retaliation is somehow over the top because they “allowed it to happen”.
Thank you. I just know at the time I was sick watching it and wondered where help was.
I kept thinking of their IC being top notch. Why did they let it go on for so long?
Gaza cut all the coms and had devices that blocked cell phones in the area
>I despise the inference that is made that somehow Israel should not have been allowed to retaliate, or that their retaliation is somehow over the top because they “allowed it to happen”.
You can despise it but you can’t deny it.
Right-and no government-even ours-is pure as the driven snow.
I think there’s more to it than that. Just way too long to explain my thinking. In short; Woke, leftists living in a fantasy land rather than paying attention to real life in the military that was responsible for keeping that area safe.
“allowed” by whom? Bibi is anointed to lead Israel. He didn’t attack Israel.
I think an element of their Deep State did allow it. Just like an element of our Deep State sponsored 9/11 and the Virus/Vaxx Attack.
But we don’t say America did it. We love America. The Deep State Gangsters in both nations will be judged.
Israel hasn’t jumped any shark. But someone might have.
Zephaniah 2
Philistia
Selah.
Not arguing pro or con but it seems Israel has respect for the life of their citizens.
Israel has respect for life.
They may seem not to at this point in time, but they are in a war they want to win and finish.
But when a wounded enemy is captured they are immediately taken to a hospital in Israel and treated as if they were an Israeli.
Israel has respect for life.
Abortions are widely employed in Israel & sanctioned by the government. Not my idea of “respect for life.”
You are right.
Abortions murder babies every day.
I was talking about war and the enemies of war.
Most of us are at war with those who murder babies and yet, we “respect” their lives enough to not kill them.
Do you despise our own government as well?
Shades of FDR and Peral Harbor. There are still those convinced of the BS 80+ years later.
Right!
Allowed to happen? Come on. That’s just ridiculous. No way.
#1 rule of fighting, never underestimate your opponents which is what Israel did and why Oct. 7th happened.
These are the same people who believe the GW Bush administration blew up the Trade Center on 9/11.
Your “common sense” doesn’t make sense…
Israel was distracted by “Politics of destruction” and complacency within…
Occum’s Razor”
Hundred percent. Israel isnt perfect but by God they are never allowed to respond in kind.
This!
And yet the really intentionally ignorant electorate here can’t see the benefit to the U.S. and the international community of what Trump is trying to do. Nevertheless, the midterms are approaching and Trump will be a short lived two year president if he doesn’t find a quick off ramp and fix our domestic insurgency from Antifa, the democrat party, destructive judges, insidious Muslims, and widespread outrageous fraud. The patient back home is very very ill.
Then why did retail improve?
For who, you? People who are free from worry don’t get it.
It’s pretty sad that people who say anything regarding the domestic side of issues, have you, sitting on a pedestal, knocking them down. I support Trump 100% but a lot of his promises to the American people have been pushed to the wayside. Obviously ones that don’t affect you!
The most persuasive explainer of foreign policy the COUNTRY–not just POTUS and the admin–have is Marco.
At a certain point, before American public opinion on the Iran thing HARDENS, I’d make sure I put Marco every where I could to “educate” Americans as only he can.
I agree completely. I appreciate Vance but Rubio is the one I would like to see as next President.
The patient back home is only ill if they focus on themselves and not on their country and the work that needs to be done.
Antifa, the demoncrat party, destructive judges, muslim and fraud need to be fought by many more people than the one man we elected to protect our borders and our citizens — the two most important jobs of a leader (per the Bible) and President (per the Constitution).
It’s a small world. What happens elsewhere affects all of us. Hiding our head under the pillow doesn’t change that.
The United Kingdom needs to keep calm and carry on. This will require shared sacrifice. To quote Winston Churchill: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
This analysis ignores the Sunni–Shiite split, where the US backed the US/Saudi backed Sunni (ISIS) head choppers, who’s primary were Iranian-backed Shiite militias, whom the Sunni regard as traitors to Islam.
Since a meeting in Tehran between the various sects of Islam … this is not as pronounced as one would think .. as if there is a temporary acceptance until infidels are addressed.
Of interest is that Asian Oil Clients in Asia are mainly Sunni based nations or nations with Sunni populations. The Islamic minorities in China are Sunni.
Iran’s current “friend and intermediary” is Sunni Pakistan.
Your point is moot for the time being.
During this soft period of no active warring, I would hope our Israeli pals have their spies/informants out in Iran, locating all the top bad guys and learning their daily patterns. Sharing with Gen. Caine such information of course. Later this week, after the Iranians ask for more negotiations, hopefully a “mad Iranian commander will fire some serious drones toward American ships in the Straight, giving the go ahead to whack the present top leadership.
47 years –2 generations where the hatreds were taught using a deity/religion as the source of those truths showered into the heads of their true believers. How do you remove those beliefs? Took a couple of nuclear bombs on Japan for the change to begin…along with “unconditional surrender and occupation” if memory serves me.
True believers–think B. Hussein Obama’s people, don’t just up and quit with their beliefs. You’ve got to force them into a minority status/reality. Even today, we have the Nazi Party in America, along with the Marxists, etc.
It’s either boots on the ground or internal revolution in Iran that will offer the best chance for change. I’ll vote for internal revolution–but time is not on our side for those who hate in America can’t wait, they are on a mission to destroy Trump and the MAGA movement any way they can.
Japan had been willing to surrender for a while at that point, but not “unconditionally,” as they wanted a guarantee that the Emperor would be protected from retaliation, which the U.S. would not give, but ended up observing anyway during the occupation, so America ended up killing about 250,000 people and destroying the home of Japan’s most historically-significant Christian community for no good reason). ,
Iran wants to kill israel and a nookers would be the fastest way to do that
Iran would also be eager to destroy the U. S. and the entire non Shia world.
“On the issue of Iran never having nuclear weapons, it has been the stated policy of every U.S. administration for 40+ years, and on that issue the entire Middle East is in agreement.”
It might be the stated policy every U.S. administration but it wasn’t Obamboozler’s under the table policy.
THIS!!!
A note of interest on Turkish relationships with Israel.
I learned the following while living as an EXPAT in Turkey, on business.
Starting in 1986 at a Turkish Military Airbase in Eskisehir, Turkey …. Israeli Defense Industries set up an operation to assist in the modernization and equipping of Turkish Defense Forces, which is still in place today.
There were/are other commercial interactions between Turkey and Israel as well.
Before Erdogan came into power, this relationship was discussed in public by Turkish officials … afterwards not so much.
There is rhetoric spoken in the media and in public … and there is stuff nobody sees nor talks about.
Exactly!
Well, I’ll say it – apparently the most UNpopular opinion these days. Israel is sick to death (no pun intended) of being constantly pummeled by the evil doers, and they know more than most where those evil doers are hanging out. So I say, Godspeed. Take every last one of those radicals out, and then, maybe then, Israel will have peace and her people will not be constantly bombed, day in, day out, 365 days a year.
I think of it like this, on a tiny scale. If some radicals were bombing, shooting, kidnapping, raping, anyone in my county, the backwoods boys would hunt every last one of them down. Shoot. Shovel. Shut up. Maybe lawless, but at that point I would not care, as long as the threats were totally eliminated. That is my opinion.
To me, it’s super simple. I dare anyone to walk in an Israeli’s shoes.
Agreed …. Nobody every discusses how every decision made by the Governing Party in Israel has impacts on national survival to some degree, depending on the subject of the decision.
That’s how I feel. Snuff these mothers out.
Having been to Yad Vashem, I agree with you.
Yes indeed!
I wholeheartedly agree.
You’d need to walk in the Palestinians’ shoes too, by that logic.
If the Palestinians allow peace, peace will be established
Unfortunately they refuse that option Many years ago Israel agreed to all of Arafat’s demands. Arafat walked away from the offer and told the Israeli negotiators he would be murdered if he agreed to peace.
I remember too.
God bless you, Born Free!!!!
“Now, there are some who claim that Iran doesn’t want a nuclear weapon, and/or Iran has a fatwa against nuclear weapons. These voices are ridiculous. Think about the irrational logic of the claim: Iran is refusing to stop pursuing something they do not want.”
This should be the Medias collective effort. To point out the absurdity of the claim Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon, rather than engaging in the absurdity to lay cover for Irans easily intuited position.
I too noticed that none of the regional states opposed this war. Either (1) there was incredible coordination, discussion, and agreement up front, (2) they had a shared interest in the current regime being removed, or (3) President Trump has built up a tremendous amount of trust with the various heads of state during his many interactions over the years. My money is on (2) and (3).
Outstanding article!
“It is a fair criticism to say the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is too militaristic and aggressive. Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy”.
Sundance, I respectfully ask: What has the diplomatic path yielded for Israel against Iran and, as you describe, “all of the extreme -perhaps most authentic- factions of Islam”? What evidence is there that there is any possibility for Israel, or any of us, to “navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy” with one, or any, of them?
I ask because I see no evidence there is any possibility strong diplomacy will alter our collective future such that it differs from what the world has experienced at the hands of radical Islamic extremists for 1400 years. Do you mean that Israel would get more support from others in the region (e.g., Saudi Arabia) were they to take a less aggressive path?
Perhaps, however, seeing 1000s of your people brutally massacred the way they were on 10/7 and the violence of those actors that continued thereafter, and knowing that Iran and its network of extremists across the region were responsible, well, if it were me I’d be aggressive as well.
What am I missing?
You are not wrong. Israel is never allowed to respond in kind.
you don’t appear to be missing anything…you make perfect sense.
“What are you missing”¿ Absolutely nothing!!!!!
I started learning about Islam on Nov. 4th 1979. My first thoughts on seeing the Iranian reaction during the takeover of the US Embassy helped me to see the demonic influence in their religion. I still wonder if it would be helpful for those folks to do without electric and learn to live like the Amish for a while. On the other hand, the folks in Yemen seem pretty primitive but bat crazy also. Have you ever noticed that putting down wars is sort of like playing “whack-a-mole”? I think it was Jesus that pointed that out. The Apostle Paul says human government has the responsibility to protect the good and punish evil. Our President understands that. The Bible talks about a time when humanity will not be subject to the Devil’s influence for a period of time. We ain’t there yet. Can we feel His Peace in the storm? I struggle with that. I have met both Jew and Gentile, and we have found agreement in Jesus Christ. In Christ we are brothers. The Devil hates humanity. Some he uses and some he persecutes.
My question is this. For forty years we’ve heard an unending stream of politicians saying Iran will have a bomb in two weeks/months/years if we don’t act. It appears they never made a bomb. They’re not a third world country. They have advanced engineers, mathematicians, & scientists. Why no bomb still?
Because lots of below the radar efforts by various powers have sabotaged them at every turn and in the odd cases where it’s getting seriously close, Israel or America bombs their facilities.
It is a continual game of “whack-a-mole” and if we screw up once and they ever get a bomb it’s Game Over.
So President Trump is opting to end the games once-and-for-all in the time he has available to do so.
Because YES it is an existential enough threat that even tanking in the midterms is worth doing it. If he is impeached and removed and JD is impeached and removed and we get President Hakeem it is still preferable by the analysis of President Trump to leaving the prospect of an Iranian nuke wiping out a major US city (or worse, setting off MAD and hundreds of millions around the world dying in nuclear fire) in the near future.
That’s the no pretending answer; Iran’s nuclear ambitions are serious enough that President Trump is willing to risk impeachment (and the inevitable imprisonment and financial ruin of his family that would follow his removal) to end that threat.
So….? What is the Conclusion?
Professor Plum did it using the Candlestick in the Library
Thanks. Well done.
What concerns me is that Bin Salman had to “urge President Trump not to back down!” Why would Trump even consider backing down? Who has Trump’s ear on this? Whiny Vance?
It would be foolish for Israel to stop bombarding Hezbollah when they appear to be at their weakest.
I don’t have any sympathy for where Europe finds itself as far as energy- they’ve done this to themselves.
And, I expect that Iran will play this all like Zelenskyy has- the terms to make peace are never good enough for them.
The best thing they can all do to hurt Donald Trump is to keep these wars going, so they will.
“Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy.”
Well….that posture is a direct result of being the target of virtually all of their Muslim neighbors since 1948 🤗
And in the context of rampant antisemitism infecting most of their so-called European and American allies.
I completely agree with your observation. But I also strongly understand why the Israelis get “trigger happy”.
Suffice to say, the Israelis are the lest prone to pretending when it comes to national defense.
However, constrained as they are by the UN, EU and US, as well as the rest of the ME, they engage in limited pretending when they have no other choice, particularly under left wing governments who by nature are more prone to pretending.
The biggest mistake the Christians made during the crusades was not totally eradicating every single last muslime
It was (and is) the intention of Iran to eradicate all others who will not obey them in every respect. Notice how they treat their own subjects.
Balanced and rational approach.
Thank you, Sundance.
May God bring soon peace back to the region, once the crazy zoo creature is being dutifully caged back.
Never give telescopes to monkeys and nuclear weapons to cavemen.
Good overview Sundance, I concur overall.
However I would suggest there’s some inside baseball that might be “missing from the calculus” if you will.
Syria. We (by “we” I’m meaning primarily the US audience) seem to have mostly forgotten the place. And that’s the rub.
Israel has a certain, oh, Freedom or Action there if you will. Not Syria itself (that’s Erdogan’s part to play) No what it is, is the endgame that many of us seem to be overlooking. Lebanon without an Iranian, or at least a greatly reduced Iranian Boot on its neck just might be part of the calculus that the greater ME community – not “us” really – is considering.
Lots of moving parts though. But ultimately; to mangle a phrase “All roads to Damascus (pass through Lebanon).”
My first thought was, “What exactly is a NATO member that is not an ally? Who came up with that cockamamie idea?”
Then I realized that’s actually all of them. They ALL are members of NATO that expect to receive benefit but don’t reciprocate.
At least Turkey is up front about it.
Turkey and one or two others are symbolic of the “democrat” branch of the Anti-American Party. The rest of NATO are symbolic the “republican” branch. Pretending to represent one thing while consistently everything in their power to support the other thing all while having their hands out to get paid for what they are not actually doing.
Right on the money.
Refusnik, you are exactly correct!
“The intelligence services of Israel (Mossad) and the USA (CIA) are involved in this process.”
What do the CIA and Mossad get out of this? This is what boggles my mind.
Read the article again. Clearer to me now. US CIA and Israel Mossad are the cages. Everyone else is zoo keepers keeping the cats fed. No one wants the Cats (radical nations) to have nuks.
“Think about the irrational logic of the claim: Iran is refusing to stop pursuing something they do not want.”
They don’t want a nuclear weapon, but they want to maintain the possibility of making one if necessary as a deterrance. It is equally irrational to conclude that they want one but don’t have one, when, according to Bibi, they’ve been weeks away for a decade.
“It is equally irrational to conclude that they want one but don’t have one, when, according to Bibi, they’ve been weeks away for a decade.”
Well, if you pretend not to know about stuxnet, and the mossads routine assassinationa of top nuclear scientists, and other works of sabotage in the industry, coupled with strict sanctions and embargoes on the means necessary to successfully field a nuclear weapon,
well then it is irrational..
but then again so is pretending not to know things.
I see. So Israel’s sabotage is only able stop enriching past 60%. Makes sense.
I think there’s also an element of fear to this dynamic that cannot be overlooked and that partly drives Iran’s Arab neighbours into maintaining the current status quo, regarding the country, namely a fundamentalist government, without a nuclear capability. The Islamic radicals and their IRGS shadow government are hugely inefficient stewards whose interventions artificially depress the potential the country has, the drive for nuclear weapons has been a particular burden, in financial and technological resources, and has provoked international sanctions that have further eroded the country’s development.
As for Israel, I believe that this administration’s approach is to make sure that she is not surrounded by actors, both state and non-state, who want to destroy her, allowing the US to begin to decouple itself from the region.
The Arab fear of the radical proxy groups the IRGC supports is outweighed by the fear that a well-governed Iran, without the radicals, and with access to Western investment would experience a Golden Age as she fully utilised all her natural and cultural resources, leading to Persian dominance in the region, with the Arabs in finding themselves once again subordinate to people who regard themselves as inherently superior to them.
No one wants Iran to have nuclear weapons, but the Arabs also don’t want there to be any chance of a nationalist Make Iran Great Again movement, which threatens them both economically, politically, culturally and diplomatically.
Add to that, the Persians and Israelis are very friendly. So now you are talking about a golden age in an Iran that is a strong ally of Israel.
Persians are not Arabs, and Americans may tend to overlook this.
Excellent analysis as usual. The unnecessary anti israel snippets continue, however. It talks of Israels “brutal, over-the-top, offensive against Hamas in Gaza.” Israel attacked Gaza only after October 7 with the help of Iran and the United nations. Have you ever fully analyzed October 7 here? You may have and I missed it. It was horrid and brutal. It was also designed to end Israel if possible. If a comparable attack was perpetrated on the United States, how would we respond? We had Pearl harbor and we wiped out numerous civilians in order to get to japanese and German military infrastructure. Israel’s response Palestine in comparison and I think our response was totally justified. The unnecessary antisemitism will set the conservative movement back even if we have the better ideas. God makes war against antisemitism.
Such reckless misinterpretation of Scripture.
Pakistan has nukes.
Iran wants nukes.
Pakistan hosted the latest round of peace talks.
But, would Pakistan give nukes to Iran?
That would be insane. Right?
Like the triangular exchange of nuclear tech and components of the 90s and early 2000s, China to Pakistan, Pakistan to N. Korea?
Speaking of MbS, have y’all seen John Cullen’s analysis on Las Vegas? Makes a lot of sense to me.
I second the recommendation.
Makes more sense than the bs story that was put out. I still think it was some hopped up Arabs, high on drugs and power, knowing they’re untouchable, decided to waste Paddock (knowing he had a stash of guns) and shoot themselves up some American hilbilly’s, America’s newest unprotected class.
But the MBS scenario may be more factual considering what MBS did afterwards, with locking up the usurpers and feeding Khosagi to his relatives.
Yeah–still kinda wondering what the forces of Al Waleed bin Talal Al Saud did once they got the guns and headed upstairs. Was there a gun battle? Did anyone get smoked? How did MbS and Jared escape? Did they shoot up the Four Seasons? Who fixed that, and how long did it take? Was that purely an SA thang? Very short on those details.
Why Does Nearly Every Neighbour Hate Iran?
I haven’t been confused about Iran since 2006. I knew they were generally evil before I got to Iraq, but then I saw their work.
I was not a door kicker in Iraq. I was mostly a pogue during that deployment. One of my several jobs was to assist the troops dealing with remains at the mortuary affairs collection point.
I was at the MACP one night when the remains of 3 American Soldiers were brought in. They had been hit by an Iranian made and possibly Iranian triggered EFP IED. Those three Soldiers were reduced to 375 ziplock bags with pieces of flesh and fragments of bone inside.
The only ‘identifiable’ piece that I saw was the right trigger finger of the young female lieutenant that had been in the humvee. She had a muted shade of lavender on her fingernail.
So, while I know the IRGC and their supporters are only a small percentage of the 90 million people in Iran. I say we just keep bombing them until we work our way through the crazies. Hopefully somewhere along the way someone will crawl out of the rubble and say ‘OK, no nukes.’
If you don’t trust your crazy religious fanatic friend not to nuke you too, you don’t give them a nuke. Russia is Christian and China is communist atheist.
On a side note Hungary’s Orban lost the election. His opponent accused him of being in bed with Russia and says he will end Russian oil and gas. Does he have a clue about the rest of Europe’s energy situation?
Also Hungary will become flooded with illegal Muslim immigrants on government benefits.
Sundance,
Thanks for an informative article.
Looking forward to more discussion about the provenance of the Iranian uranium.
Thank you, Sundance! Yet another refreshing ray of sunlight from your analysis.
Regarding “…a fair criticism to say the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is too militaristic and aggressive. Israel’s continually aggressive posture makes it difficult to navigate the nuances of strong diplomacy.”
I disagree with the first sentence, even if the second one is spot on. After the Oct. 7th massacre, the globally broadcast hate party and excruciating hostage scenario, am guessing that Israel is DONE playing with attempting to accommodate everybody’s diplomatic sensibilities regarding erasure of this endless, implacable Hamas threat next-door. They’ve offered (and been pressured into) endless options for ‘the easy way’ since 1967 and IMHO, Netanyahu is exactly the warrior they need to finally *finish* this very nasty job.
Hey, it worked for South Africa. Oh wait…
Amen
Buy a little cheap geiger counter and be ready to test (for real) if we have been exposed to radiation.
I bought a little Radex three years ago.
Either the real thing or the false flag is coming.
What better reason for mail-in ballots.
Just thinking out loud (JTOL).
~Sundance and anyone interested. I did a deep dive on what is The Muslim Brotherhood exactly. I have it on PDF in Dropbox.
Here is the link if you want a deeper understanding of it. This is happening in the US too – NYC and elsewhere so it’s not only “over there”, it’s also “here”.
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/yx8hh8tdquhkifbo3e1dm/The-Muslim-Brotherhood.pdf?rlkey=1pogzkamwnrw8aplnxw056adp&st=w6ee7l38&dl=0
~By the way Erdogan (Turkey) is on video yesterday threatening that “Turkey may go to war with Israel if Israel continue with fighting Iran”. We are not extra worried about it. It’s talk , a lot of what he say is to please the Islamists in Turkey – hopefully so.
I posted it at my Rumble channel: https://rumble.com/v78e07k-erdogan-if-the-war-with-iran-continues-turkey-may-enter-the-war-against-isr.html
~As to Egypt and Gaza, I mentioned it before, there were many tunnels from Gaza to Egypt when we entered Rafah and located them. Egyptians were involved in the smuggling. A lot of the weapons and munitions of Hamas came through there. It is true that they did do a lot trying to prevent Gazans from moving to Egypt.
Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood that is the big enemy of Al Sisi the President of Egypt.
~Also by the way, We have been under 50-150 of rockets per day from Hezbollah since the Operation in Iran began. I wonder what the US would have done if there were hundreds of rockets from Mexico Cartels towards Texas daily. I would challenge the idea of being “over militant”- I would say “under-militant”. Our citizens in the north are living in a nightmare.
~But overall I agree with the main premiss that there is an agreement about a crazy Shia regime not having nukes.
The way they are dealing with the negotiations right now is just showing how crazy they are.
Thanks David, I’ve looked into the Muslim Brotherhood in dribs and drabs; this is all inclusive. I’m gonna read it again.
Do you think their spread was most effective with planned mass migration? Did Obama’s Arab Spring along with the NWO contribute to it’s success?
It does not take being an Israel-firster to appreciate that Israel did everything reasonably feasible to target combatants and warned innocents away from areas of bombing. That is not brutal.
Nor is it brutal for Israel to have undertaken a policy to extirpate terrorist infrastructure and its leaders from planning and executing further existential attacks on Israel. October 7 was not merely a massacre, let alone a brutal massacre of even medicated savagery. It was a multi-front initiative to destroy Israel that only happened on one front and was completely planned and undertaken by the Palestinians, be they Hamas or just others along for the ride. Israel’s response was different from its previous reactions under Obama’s Preaodency in that it enabled any and all peace initiatives to realistically take place. There would be no such discussion without Israel having rooted out the nihilistic Jihadist terror machine that the majority of Palestinians are and have been carefully cultivated to be – whether they are in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, or in New York City. They did not want coexistence on October 6 and they do not want it now. It is not brutal to eliminate someone before he elininates you.
Americans Matter you are correct on all points!
This is an excellent summary. The peace talks were always going to fail in my opinion because the regime doesn’t want peace, it wants internal control and external chaos.
Agree completley. Iran can never be permitted to have a nuclear weapon.
However, so long as the “death to America” death cult regime is in charge, Iran will never STOP seeking a nuclear weapon, regardless of anything they may publicly agree to. There can never be any confidence that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons so long as the “death to America” death cult is in power. Telling ourselves otherwise is just telling ourselves potentially deadly fairy tales.
Regime change is the only path to a non-nuclear Iran.
Thank you for the clarity you always bring to complicated topics. (along with subtle humor “dire Straits” LOL)
“On the issue of Iran not having nuclear weapons it has been the policy of every American administration for the past 40+ years . . .” Yet from 2009-2017 the political leadership DID encourage such development, so long as there was a decent interval to hide its fingerprints.
Unfortunately you are exactly correct and in supporting Iran they enriched themselves and harmed the United States.