The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class. However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised. Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.”
Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting. The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction. The question becomes, why the disconnect?
There are two surveys that make up the BLS reporting. The Household survey is conducted by calling people and just asking if they are employed. The Payroll survey is conducted by reviewing large and medium businesses, no small businesses are included, and that plays a role in the disconnect.
Since the spring of last year, the two surveys have completely disconnected from each other. The household survey finds a net gain of 12,000 jobs in the last three quarters; the Payroll survey shows gains of 2.7 million jobs during the same time.
ZeroHedge did a good dive on the issue (SEE HERE), and their analysis reports, “[…] the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”
Additionally, Forbes dove into the data (SEE HERE) and reached a similar conclusion, the BLS data is all nonsense covered in statistical noise.
Forbes – […] “The Payroll Survey shows employment growth of nearly 2.7 million jobs between March and November. The Household Survey, over the same period, shows 12,000. Something is seriously wrong! The headline number that is broadcast in the media is the Payroll Survey, so if it is incorrect and the Household Survey is accurate, then the “hot” jobs market, which the Fed uses to justify its rate increases, is really a “cold” jobs market.
Looking at the recent past, the two surveys were in sync until March, when the Payroll Survey took off. Some of the issue could revolve around the small business birth/death assumptions. Since the Payroll Survey doesn’t sample small businesses, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adds a number based on a time trend, and they even seasonally adjust this data. Over that March to November period, the Birth/Death model added 1.3 million jobs. This appears strange to any observer of economic trends, which tells us that business is contracting, not expanding. Even if the Birth/Death add-on is eliminated, the discrepancy is still 1.36 million jobs between the two surveys.” (read more)
Housing is collapsing (already collapsed in the predictable epicenters), housing starts have dropped, contracts are abandoned, businesses are contracting, companies did not hire for the holiday season, shopping and consumer purchases were nonexistent (Nov/Dec), inventories have climbed, manufacturing has contracted, thousands laid-off in the tech sector (including Amazon), and yet the BLS data shows jobs growth. These Main Street economic inconsistencies are not reconcilable unless the BLS data, models and underlying assumptions are wrong.
A bit trite I know, but…
Figures lie, and liars figure.
The MO of a false, debauched government for I dread to think how many decades.
It’s as simple as that. Revisions to this absurd figure will follow, as they always always do.
Positive numbers during Democrat Administrations are always “corrected” downward a few months later, while negative numbers during a Republican Administration are always “adjusted” upward… There is nothing new under the Sun!
No there isn’t. The definition of “wash, rinse, wash again, repeat.”
Every day is Monty Python.
Monty Python was funny (during its day). This modern version I am not keen on.
Yup, Go back and review the 8 years of NObama economic numbers vs the revisions.
“…virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”
Or multiple part-time jobs for one person which are then counted as two or three…because that is what it takes to put food on the table. Where is that number?
As for job listings, it has been known in the past to post openings for which there is no intention to hire. Looks good dressing up government data showing how the economy is “booming” with all those “jobs” available.
I suspect there may be some of that going on as well.
Job gains were fueled by an unexpected increase in balloon repairmen 🙂
Haven’t lost your touch, WORDMAN. 😉
So that’s where the phrase “the theatre of the absurd
“came from…
I think those numbers are inflated.
I see what you did there, GB!
Notice how the “balloon “ came into play just now ..🤣🤣…
As I’ve said many times “it’s all theater “…😠👎
🇺🇸💪😀👍
Or maybe just hot air.
Ooooooops, Jim…A reply I left for WORDMAN above was meant for you, dear sir…uber fat finger this afternoon😉
I can relate ..🤣😂👍..thank you 😀👍
🇺🇸💪😀👍
“All the world’s a stage..”
The part-time jobs is really annoying, too. In 2020, my daughter and son-in-law were making $13 and $15 an hour which wasn’t bad (but but really good) and people would say that people making that combined for 40 hours each a week could support themselves. The only problem is neither of them could get more that 25-28 hours a week because their employers would have to give them medical and other benefits – thanks, Obamacare! They were really hurting when her employer shut down for 10 weeks and they were just getting by on his $375 -400 per week. No unemployment because she, like others, could never get through to the unemployment office.
Fortunately, he is now full-time with benefits for them both and she, while technically part-time, works 35-45 hours a week and both are making 50% more now.
Well I am glad for that, mari. And yes, there is always that little workaround, isn’t there. Sounds good to trumpet that wage rise, until one finds out that the bottom line shrinks while every expense remains constant or increases. The deck is always stacked.
Never in my 74 years have I met a Democrat that told the truth! Ever.
My experience as well, Bob.
As in, “If you like your health plan, you’ll be able to keep it…”
(…unless you can’t afford it after we make sure you can’t.”)
Like that you mean.
Unfortunately, most Republicans (at least on Capitol Hill) don’t tell the truth, either. But then, most Republicans on the Hill are really Democrats. So, your comment holds up to critical review.
I also saw a report that stated millions of men are no longer working. So, even if FJB was creating all of these jobs, they aren’t being filled. This is not something to celebrate.
Or they are filling certain numbers of them with our newest “arrivals”.
Bet there are no government statistics for that, Michelle
Can’t count those who take jobs here. That counting is for the census and ” votong”.
Some time ago, I saw some figures that before Covid there were about 66% of men between 18 and 64 working. That after Covid lockdowns were lifted, that percent went down to 61%.
Economic reporting has been outsourced to the CCP. They use the what do you want the numbers to be methodology. We live in a land of propaganda driven pseudo reality.
Philly Fed did a deep dive on jobs 2 days after Jerome Powell gave a briefing stating that the jobs mkt was overheated and cited BLS reporting. The market promptly tanked. Philly Fed then comes out and says what zerohedge and others have been saying: there were no job gains . None . The 2million plus jobs were a fake. But Powell IS the Philly fed….now comes jan/Feb and he’s still citing bls. Well Jerome, which is correct: bls or ur own people in Philly fed?
I think Powell is citing BS figures.
Read about this yesterday and had to chuckle. Said to self that Sundance at CTH is going to have fun with this report!
I knew he would pick this up when the stock market went down on Fri,when they spewed this BS.
SOTU imagineering.
Statistics don’t lie. Liars use Statistics.
Every time the labor reports come out, I go over to see what Karl Denninger at market-ticker.com has to say. In addition to the above, he also noted the following:
Another piece of internal data — which is confirmatory of certain other suspicions — is that nearly a million people over the last 12 months were added to the disabled rolls. However, the percentage of said disabled people working increased, likely due to the end of pandemic “stay home and get a check” programs over the last year.
*** ends of quote***
When the free money runs out…
I’m really happy I’m retired and not worrying about losing my job. It’s stressful enough worrying about where this is all heading – well, knowing where this is all heading, actually.
I am skeptical about help wanted numbers and the supposed number of listings exceeding the unemployed 2 to 1
I am doing contract work for a company, they place help wanted ads and get dozens of applicants. Different kinds of jobs lower paying to middle income. Of course all the applicants aren’t a match but the company seems to have plenty of qualified applicants to interview. Anecdotal and may be geographic (Central Florida) etc. but doesn’t fit with there are no workers. I’ll finish with they’ve hired more than their fair share of losers.
Hard to taper a ponzi scheme, but much easier with misinformation
If I remember correctly, the definition of a “small” business is 500 or fewer employees.
My small business has 2. Just sayin
And long may you prosper.
When dealing with totalitarians, truth is a rarity. It reminds me of Soviet Union crop yield predictions.
Another indication of what is occurring: ChikfilA had a hiring sign up which included that they were hiring full time only positions (32+). Never in my life have I seen a retailer advertising for full time only. One possibility is that people are working 2 and 3 part time jobs to make ends meet.
Does that mean that 517,000 replacement workers were able to get jobs that US workers were not allowed to get?
As my Father used to say….they actually believe their own bullshit.
Nobody goes into the eye watering full dive of economic data. They see the headline that 517k jobs gained. That is political gold that not only deflects Republican criticism but puts them on their heals and forces them to go along with the White House.
You’d think they’d want to emphasize more f/t layoffs now, then build the numbers back up more toward the ’24 election cycle..
Oh, wait, that’s right.. They need a good story to deflect from those Classified Docs showing up all over the place RIGHT NOW!
I thought that was the balloon story.
Come on, man. Biden said that there is no inflation in his administration. He was elected President. Hunter is the smartest man he knows. His favorite flavor of ice cream is Tutti Fruitti. Jill is so fashion forward that she should be on the cover of every fashion magazine.
Any questions?
(BTW–Your handle. His disease.)
What’s funny from a trader’s perspective (me), you know the information is tweaked but in order to make money trading in the futures market, you have to go with the flow even when you know it to be false.
Glad you are not my advisor!
Again, they continue to lie and expect us to lap it up!
I for one, will not play this game.
No longer will I believe any “reports” on anything, unless I see it with my own 2 eyes and hear it first hand with my own 2 ears.
This is absurd.
So, for the Sunday Talk Shows the topics will be: 1) DOD shoots down a “Chinese Weather/Spy Balloon” and 2) Amazing 517,000 new jobs; great economy.
Exactly
I dont believe a dam thing this Government tells me. Not since Tet ’68. Not a dam thing.
I’m shocked, absolutely shocked that anyone would entertain the notion that the Federal Government would misrepresent the data!
I went to walmart and noticed a lot of price drops, big drops too.
Ie: 2 weeks ago i bought a box of 60 eggs for $20
today same box was $16 and on and on through out the store were price reductions..
I scored big Roma tomatoes today for .88lb!! Scored me about 25lbs and i’m gonna put up some more salsa to last me until mine are ready in August 😀
So… if the job market was as good as lyin biden says…..then everyone would be shopping and buying things .. right?
so why the big price drops?
Shhhh, we ain’t sposed to notice..
The masses that have been falling back on credit cards to make ends meet and are tapped out. Credit cards are full and the interest payments are eating away at disposable income. It is cheaper to by a bacon, egg and cheese biscuit at the Arches than make it at home….go figure! Oh and those 60 eggs were only $5.00 in 2020. Laying hens got a huge raise, which of course will be reflected in he next BLS farm payroll report. They have fudged these numbers for so long that there is no longer dough in the mixture!! Everything will look rosy on a 12 month ago comparison standard as prices level off due to supply and demand, but they will never be what they were. That transitory inflation has settled into something resembling concrete. I will never trust anything, be it statistics or promises that come from a government or MSM source.
During obam biden all job creation was “Part Time” but was reported as “full time”
nothing new under the communist democrat sun…. same play book in the works.
Well … maybe.
Perhaps all those newly unemployed folks at Twitter, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, PayPal, et.al. … found new employment at Starbucks?
Naw, they went back to their jobs at the FBICIANSADNCDHS.
In 1954 Darrell Huff wrote a book called How to Lie with Statistics. It would appear that the BLS has memorized every nook and cranny of lies that would have qualified for inclusion in the book. Like inflation numbers don’t include food or energy, omitting whether jobs are full-time or part-time makes a big difference to your standard of living. What qualifies as part-time? 2 hours a week, 20 hours a week, 38 hours a week or 30 minutes a week? Governmental sleight of hand is alive and well in the District of Corruption!!!
How many people are working multiple jobs to stay afloat?? I want to see those numbers, as well.
And how many of these “new jobs” have been filled by Illegal Aliens?
Even more ridiculous is the government reporting on core inflation. What a lot of people don’t know is that that rate does NOT include food and energy. How freaking stupid and useless.
Cooking the books, but can’t hide what Americans are feeling every day!
Businesses are closing in large amounts daily due to lack of help. No way are those job numbers correct!
I saw the jobs number during my Friday morning training session. I immediately spoke out (loud) that was a lot of hogwash. Maybe stronger words than that. It amazes me that people actually believe those numbers. I then recited to the people around me when the Philly Fed announced an over statement by BLS for Q2 2022 jobs by 1.1 million.
I know I’ve mentioned this before but I work in the temp staffing industry – we employ mostly unskilled workers. We are a small business treated as a large employer with all the regs that go along with it. It can be overwhelming sometimes considering what the government expects us to report since in reality we have 30 total permanent staff. It’s annoying actually. They don’t care. But I did the BLS monthly reporting for around 10 years and in 2021 after I saw how they were cooking the jobs number books I stopped. BLS likes to make you think it’s required but it’s voluntary. I still get calls from them and a monthly request to report our numbers. I processed 7300 W2s for 2022 and that was 1000 more W2s than 2021 but our billable hours were down. That’s how bad the burn rate has been with temp employees.
Between BLS and the Census department I’ve made no friends. Census requests 12 different reports at least once a year and most are for each of our offices. All of our offices are in the middle TN area. That’s 12 reports times 7 locations. I’ve sworn off all census reports even though they threaten you — often. They are such bullies. Bunch of good for nothing federal workers who wouldn’t know a days work if it slapped them in the face.
I have no use for them.
Butt 0f CUR$E, Bidet is Full 0F $HIT :
They’re not wrong, they’re FAKE, PHONY & FALSE!
They’re lying as usual!
If even Forbes is noticing there’s a disconnect with these numbers you know its bad.
After teaching qualitative statistic and analysis to doctoral student for the past 15 years I’ve observed that if you “torture numbers long enough they will confess to damn near anything.” Case in point.
Dr Jorey
In other news, the Department of Agriculture announced yesterday that Deputy to the Assistant Director of Agriculture Trofim Lysenko presented his final report on research into post-Mendelian genetics. According to Lysenko, who earned a PhD in Social Media Science by studying the effects of exposure to social media posts on plant life and bartenders, claims artificial fertilizers retard crop growth and yield. He states further that the fertilizer industry, an offshoot of WWI munitions production, has been the number one cause of famine over the last century, and continues to prosper due to heavy lobbying of governments and legislatures. During a press briefing Lysenko stated that crop yields could multiply four to five-fold, if farmers stop bombarding crops with synthetic compounds they cannot use and which ultimately block their innate ability to rise to a challenge. In summary, The Deputy said, “What does not kill corn only makes it stronger”.
Found in the bin… 🙁
In December it was reported that the US added just 10,500 net new jobs in the second quarter of 2022 instead of the 1,121,500 estimated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Why should we believe the current gaslighting?
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/2022/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf
200 of those jobs are sitting 3 employees per table at one hospital/clinic satellite of a major medical center as “Covid Screeners” doing absolutely nothing other than putting a “checked” sticker on every person that walks in the doors. Each one on payroll for 2 years. Not asking questions, not checking immunization status, some handing out masks. This system alone probably has close to 1000 such “employees” wasting our tax dollars.
You are missing the main factor- people working multiple jobs to make ends meet.
The household survey will record one job, BLS will record multiple jobs.
This started with Obamacare and it’s 30 hour rule. People would work 25 hours at McDonalds, and 25 hours across the street at Burger King.
The good news–the Administration created 517, 000 jobs!
The bad news; they were all bank tellers in the Cayman Islands.
There is such a disconnect between government reporting figures and what people are experiencing, what stores are experiencing, and what small and large businesses are basing their future purchases of stock and labor.
Look around the stores in your area. Are you seeing full shelves of optional/elective purchases as I am? Are you finding it harder to get help in a department store or find a checkout that is staffed? I think that the big layoffs that have been announced by larger companies are not the only stories. I think that stores are cutting 1 or 2 employees here and there or reducing the number of hours that employees work.
These numbers are a blatant lie.
Since when are any statistics from any federal government agency or department the truth. It was clearly shown that during the Trump Presidency, 90% of the federal employees were willing to lie, cheat and steal to undermine President Trump and his policies. If they were willing to do that to President Trump they damn sure didn’t have a come to Jesus meeting and decide to tell the truth during the current installed Presidents term. I consider everything, and I mean everything, that comes out of the federal government as a lie in some shape or form.
You just need to understand the higher math involved.
Every Government Bureaucracy messes with their statistical data to support the narrative of the Leftists and gives them more fodder for their Clap Trap Collectivist propaganda. Even NOAA fudges the daily weather statistics enough to make the Climanistas happy with the results by using daily rounding errors of up to 1 full degree higher every day and they have been doing this for at least 20 years. Everywhere we look, the Government numbers don’t add up accurately and the cumulative numbers build trends that the Climate Industry uses to bilk us taxpayers for more and more money. I am not surprised that the Government just tells monthly lies about our economy by using invalid data to support their claims.
This is not news, but it is to the half of our country who cannot do enough simple math to even notice what is obvious to many. I don’t know how many people pay attention to any of this, but it never seems to adversely affect the outcomes of elections for the Demcommies either.
A lot of people will never believe that most of the dishonest people in our country are aligned with the Democrat Party. It is very disheartening to see people even on this website instinctively attacking Repugs for every dishonest move they make, while completely ignoring the systemic dishonesty of the Democrats, as well. I have been around for too long to be fooled that Repugs in the DC Swamp are more honest than their Demcommie counterparts, but I am acutely aware of which party is spending billions to brainwash our children with Communist hogwash versions of reality, and why they do it.
We will ignore this difference at our own peril. Mitch McConnell and his acolytes in the Senate and a few in the House need to be gotten rid of, but not at the expense of empowering the Demcommie Party to continue with their systematic destruction of our Country. If you are one of these people your lack of foresight will turn into the same blinders that empowered Lenin, Stalin, and Mao to make the biggest mess that the world has ever seen.
What happened around March of 2022 to start this divergence? We just had two quarters of economic contraction. But if I remember the narrative, “how can you have a recession, if these jobs are still being created ar this record pace. “. These people start wars, so the concept of fudging data is not beyond their thinking
FJB desperately trying to get economic / stock market ( 402k) numbers up in time for 2024 ” re-election”.
There are signs for “Help Wanted” everywhere. Why? How?
What if they just make up the numbers?
Marty Walsh could do that.
Government math, government numbers, always wrong all the time.
I’ve said this repeatedly; a hot jobs report will require Powell to raise the Fed rate. One this hot would, by Powell’s own claims, require a 75-100 point raise.
We are in this Steange Other World where Joe can take credit for a fake jobs report and Powell destroys the economy in response to the fake jobs report. It’s bizarre.