The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published a jobs report yesterday [DATA LINK] that has stunned the professional financial class. However, those who have followed the BLS data assemblies were laughing – not surprised. Eventually, if this continues, the BLS pretzel logic will start using terms like “eleventy.”
Throughout 2022, the BLS modified the underlying data they used to assemble their jobs reporting. The latest release shows that 517,000 jobs were gained in the labor market, despite every other economic indicator showing we are in an economy of contraction. The question becomes, why the disconnect?
There are two surveys that make up the BLS reporting. The Household survey is conducted by calling people and just asking if they are employed. The Payroll survey is conducted by reviewing large and medium businesses, no small businesses are included, and that plays a role in the disconnect.
Since the spring of last year, the two surveys have completely disconnected from each other. The household survey finds a net gain of 12,000 jobs in the last three quarters; the Payroll survey shows gains of 2.7 million jobs during the same time.
ZeroHedge did a good dive on the issue (SEE HERE), and their analysis reports, “[…] the number of full-time workers in March 2022 was 132.587 million. Fast forward to January 2023 when it was 132.577: that’s right: total US full-time workers declined by 10K over a period of 10 months. Meanwhile, part-time workers soared from 25.908 million to 27.400 million, an increase of 1.492 million! So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”
Additionally, Forbes dove into the data (SEE HERE) and reached a similar conclusion, the BLS data is all nonsense covered in statistical noise.
Forbes – […] “The Payroll Survey shows employment growth of nearly 2.7 million jobs between March and November. The Household Survey, over the same period, shows 12,000. Something is seriously wrong! The headline number that is broadcast in the media is the Payroll Survey, so if it is incorrect and the Household Survey is accurate, then the “hot” jobs market, which the Fed uses to justify its rate increases, is really a “cold” jobs market.
Looking at the recent past, the two surveys were in sync until March, when the Payroll Survey took off. Some of the issue could revolve around the small business birth/death assumptions. Since the Payroll Survey doesn’t sample small businesses, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adds a number based on a time trend, and they even seasonally adjust this data. Over that March to November period, the Birth/Death model added 1.3 million jobs. This appears strange to any observer of economic trends, which tells us that business is contracting, not expanding. Even if the Birth/Death add-on is eliminated, the discrepancy is still 1.36 million jobs between the two surveys.” (read more)
Housing is collapsing (already collapsed in the predictable epicenters), housing starts have dropped, contracts are abandoned, businesses are contracting, companies did not hire for the holiday season, shopping and consumer purchases were nonexistent (Nov/Dec), inventories have climbed, manufacturing has contracted, thousands laid-off in the tech sector (including Amazon), and yet the BLS data shows jobs growth. These Main Street economic inconsistencies are not reconcilable unless the BLS data, models and underlying assumptions are wrong.
“Housing is collapsing (already collapsed in the predictable epicenters), housing starts have dropped, contracts are abandoned …” Anecdotally– I live in a Del Webb over-55 community in suburban Indianapolis that is not quite built out. In this sort of neighborhood, you have some small percentage of churn, usually governed it seems, by mortality, deciding this type of neighborhood just isn’t for you and the ever popular “the grandkids are moving, we gotta go.” We have been in this neighborhood not quite five years and in that time, for the first four years at any rate, if a house came on the market it was rapidly gobbled up. I know of several which were sold before the realtor’s sign even made it into the yard.
If forced to make a guess I’d say the market in this neighborhood started collapsing last summer. There was an FSBO attempt that failed and which was then sold to a broker and the broker wasn’t able to get rid of it until December. One house near mine came empty in November and doesn’t seem to have been shown since then. As the houses under construction come complete, new lots don’t seem to be taken up for construction (although very few remain).
Within two miles of me a desirable area of larger lot sizes meant for higher end stick-built homes was site prepped with power, water, and roughed in roads beginning late ’21, into the spring of ’22. The lots started sprouting ‘sold’ signs as the weather warmed. And then it became obvious nothing was being worked. Nearly all the sold signs have disappeared and there’s still no construction going on. I’ve begun to wonder if the ‘lot sold’ signs weren’t actually a sales tactic and if so, it didn’t work.
Yep, flat as a pancake around here.
A big point made by Sundance, Forbes & ZeroHedge survives BLS data revisions. The Household Survey employment estimate undermines the Establishment estimate. The former now shows 200-300k jobs gained between Mar-May 2022 and Nov 2022. This is about 10% (one tenth) of the gain shown by the latter.
Another big point also survives. The job gains shown by the household survey & establishment survey conflict with historical relationships between employment, industrial production, GDP, personal income and other economic activity.
More troubling for me is the behavior of ADP’s jobs data since ADP altered its methodology. ADP’s numbers now closely track BLS establishment data. Prior to the alteration, ADP showed less job growth.
I believe ADP showed 110k jobs added in January. Heard on both the radio and seen in print same day the BLS 500k+ number was released.
Clown world we live in.
But seriously, does anybody believe anything that comes out of this administration? I know with everything they put out, it’s more likely just the opposite is true.
This would be funny if it wasn’t about the rot and decline of our country.
The conniving liars that run our government (leftist Dems) are using two familiar vehicles to gaslight the “hot jobs” market. One is a survey that is essentially a political push poll, where a key demographic (small businesses) is entirely omitted while the few favorable instances exaggerated. Second, a model is now used – a time trend or Birth/Death model “add in” – that conveniently adds 1.3 million jobs out of thin air (much like the sham global warming climate models). It’s all a sham. They’re cooking the books, again.
“So at least we know where the bulk of the increase in US labor came from in the past year: virtually no full-time jobs, and all part-time.”
Translation: People that were once making a comfortable living just two years ago have had to find additional employment to make ends meet because of bidens soaring cost of living.
I know I retired very comfortably while Trump was President. Since then the Biden economy is getting closer to causing me to dip into my savings since my monthly expenses are now about $700 more per month since I retired. It is not yet to the point that I would need to return to the work force, but I can see how others may not be so prepared and will have to put off any planned retirement for a few more years.
The only thing we can count on this government for is that they will lie to us about everything, they will steal everything they can and will kill as many as they can. The government agencies we thought were there to protect us are actively working towards the demise of the nation and eliminating as many people as possible. The FDA and CDC work towards hiding effective cures and forcing deadly treatments on the people. The FBI and DoJ enable criminal and destructive activity by fringe groups and themselves while prosecuting patriots and anyone who opposes them while they sabotage and destroy critical elements of our food chain and energy infrastructure. The USDA falsifies disease testing on livestock and forces farmers to kill thousands of perfectly healthy animals to raise food prices and create shortages. Biden cripples our energy supply with moronic executive orders stopping oil and gas production and delivery while forcing environmentally destructive EVs on the country.
Our government is most definitely out to destroy the nation and slaughter the people.
This is good news, not bad news. It means things are moving in the right direction, toward a rather mild garden-variety recession.
“Housing is collapsing” is completely overwrought. Housing prices are adjusting to higher interest rates just like always. All those high prices people insisted were “fake” are returning to reality, and that’s the whole idea. The locations where prices went up the most will now come back down the most, as they should. This is nothing like 2007, banks and the citizens are in much better shape than then. We still have a housing shortage, we still have a young generation with a lot of high-income jobs that want housing. The readjustment will happen and the economy will recover. The wet-dreaming “collapse” hopers will claim it’s all “fake” when it recovers, like always. They will simply continue to be left behind economically as always.
This is not what you think it is. We are at the end of the economic / monetary system we are in. I think interest on the national debt I read something like $500 Billion and growing. We can not sustain this spending and our dollar is no longer going to be the world’s reserve currency. When we return to a commodity based system, things around the world are going to re-set and in the short run it could be a disaster for us. Look at Saudi Arabia accepting currency other than US dollars for oil. Look at the moves by Russia with their commodities. BRICS nations are uniting against the US Dollar. Banks worldwide have quadrillions invested in derivatives that are going to collapse. You need better news sources.
~$528 billion currently per the US Debt Clock
The lead story on page 1 of the Wall Street Journal on Sat, Feb 4, mirrored all the mainstream media in gushing about the great news on unemployment, including all the statistics Brandon bragged about. Somebody is lying here. I would like to believe this article because I don’t believe anything the government says, but why did no media report the statistics as Treehouse has here?
The largest growth in jobs, according to the government, is in “leisure and hospitality” (read low-paying minimum wage, part-time, and temporary jobs) and the lowest is in “manufacturing” (read good-paying, full-time mining, and factory jobs. The only employment drop shown is in Tech, and every day we see more articles about layoffs of high-paying white-collar jobs, not just in Tech, but in the banking and management ranks of large companies. How does any of this help the economy and middle class?
A must watch
https://rokfin.com/post/121264/The-US-dollar-collapse-is-coming-with-Peter-Schiff-Alexander-Mercouris-and-Glenn-Diesen
from BLS Employment Situation FAQs:
4. Does the establishment survey sample include small firms? Yes; about 40 percent of the establishment survey sample is comprised of business establishments with fewer than 20 employees. The establishment survey sample is designed to maximize the reliability of the statewide total nonfarm employment estimate; firms from all states, size classes, and industries are appropriately sampled to achieve that goal.
Does jobs “created” translate into an actual hire, or does a created job equal a help wanted sign at the curb?
Biden’s Economy Lost 2.5 Million Jobs in January, despite Media Claims of 517,000 ‘Gain’ https://slaynews.com/news/bidens-economy-lost-2-5-million-jobs-january-media-claims-517000-gain/