There is something predictable about Main Street economics, eventually what you see around you overwhelms the great pretending. CTH has been outlining the state of the consumer economy in great detail for quite a while, and though it is difficult to note when the outcomes will surface, eventually they do surface. [Reminder Here]
CONTEXT. CTH outlined the moment when the purchasing power of the U.S. middle class actually began contracting. It was March and April of 2021 when that Rubicon was crossed. We saw it in the second and third quarter data from 2021, but few were willing to admit.
What changed in those two months back in ’21 was a dramatic drop in the “unit sales” of stuff within the consumer economy. The drop in unit sales was hidden because it happened simultaneously with the first wave of massive spike in prices. Prices rose so fast the sales data was giving an artificial impression of sales growth, but in the background the actual unit sales dropped. Those analysts correcting and adjusting historic data to ‘inflation adjusted terms’ are now noticing.
Additionally, and not coincidentally – because the metrics are connected, you will note this line from the Wall Street Journal review of the producer price index. “The producer-price index, which generally reflects supply conditions in the economy, rose 6.2% in December from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday, the slowest annual pace since March 2021.” In essence, the current rate of wholesale price increase on materials is now returning to the rate of price increase that happened in the period when prices spiked. Again, this is predictable.
Inflation is the measure of the ‘rate’ of price increase over time. March and April of 2021 were the beginning of the first inflationary spike.
Driven almost entirely by the supply side shock from Biden energy policy, in the subsequent 20 months the rate of price increase skyrocketed, peaked August 2022, and now the rate of increase starts returning. This does not mean price declines; this means the rate of growth in the price increase is lessening.
This is a cyclical outcome.
After 20 months of dropping unit sales, a result of massive price increases; and as the rate of inflation now starts to moderate created by the cyclical nature of it; what we now see is the inability of the price increases to continue hiding the drop in unit sales. [Background pdf Data] Total retail sales data is now exposed and that’s why we will see this increasing story about negative sales data as the inflation cycle plateaus.
(Via Wall Street Journal) – Retail spending fell in December at the sharpest pace of 2022, marking a dismal end to the holiday shopping season as rising interest rates, still-high inflation and concerns about a slowing economy pinched American consumers.
Purchases at stores, restaurants and online, declined a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in December from the prior month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Sales were also revised lower in November and have fallen three of the past four months.
The decline in retail spending late last year adds to signs that the U.S. economy is slowing. Hiring and wage growth eased in December, U.S. commerce with the rest of the world declined significantly in November, and existing-home sales have fallen for 10 straight months. The Federal Reserve said Wednesday that industrial production slumped in December, led by weakness in the manufacturing industry.
S&P Global downgraded its estimate for fourth-quarter economic growth by a half percentage point to a 2.3% annual rate after Wednesday’s data releases. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month expect higher interest rates to tip the U.S. economy into a recession in the coming year.
“The lag impact of elevated inflation weighs heavily on U.S. households, it’s very clear that the median American consumer is still reeling from the loss of wages in inflation-adjusted terms,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. “We’re moving towards what I would expect to be a mild recession in 2023,” he added. (read more)
When the Baghdad Bob economic pretenders say, “mild recession,” anticipate something more akin to a mild nuclear meltdown, something with breadlines and soup kitchens.
Now, you must keep in mind that almost every financial media outlet used the same Retail Federation talking point about anticipating an 8% increase in holiday sales last year. [Reminder] Apparently, collective pretenses must be maintained. Meanwhile, news crews and camera crews were having a desperate time finding any holiday shopping to use as background footage for the claims that sales were strong. Here we are in January and the pretending has hit reality.
Negative retail sales in November and December when prices are roughly +10% over the prior year, means the unit sales collapse was far more dramatic…. Far more.
Trying to survive policy driven price increases in housing costs, energy costs, electricity costs, home heating, food and fuel costs has forced consumers to reevaluate purchasing decisions. Consumer demand for non-essential items has collapsed, and Americans are dig deep into their savings just to sustain unavoidable expenses. Eventually, pretending this is not happening is going to run into the wall of reality.
On one hand the leaders of large multinationals must pretend everything is splendid; after all, the only acceptable position they can articulate is to support interest rates being raised because demand is just too darned high…. pretending. But on the other hand – those same suppliers and multinationals are furiously trying to calculate how to avoid being stuck with billions worth of unsold inventory and idle industrial equipment.
getting to be QUITE typical….. original reported economic data is revised UP for Republican leadership and DOWN for Dimm/commie leadership…..well after the fact ofc to soften the news
Bidenism
Exactly.
When President Trump was in office the numbers were good….and they still shaved off a point or two…but they never showed—just how great the numbers were.
The would quietly announce the increase in adjusted number later.
The exact opposite is true now. The numbers are bad. People don’t realize just how bad… the numbers are quietly adjusted down farther and people don’t pay attention or no big coverage of the adjusted figure.
This game began with Clinton and continued through GW Bush and then hit hyperdrive with Obama. NEVER trust govt. numbers – if they say the sun is going to rise in the east tomorrow morning you’d best check it out for yourself.
The large multinationals will do what they always do, write the inventory losses off on their taxes, and fire employees until real output matches real demand.
Brace yourselves.
Google going to start laying off 10,000 employees.
let’s hope so !!
Amazon is laying off too
Yep.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/amazon-set-to-begin-new-round-of-layoffs-affecting-over-18000-people.html
That would be stage 3…
1=energy inflation
2=consumer purchasing inflation
3=stagflation
Wait to see “our betters”from the WEF swoop in from Europe to buy up the economic colony’s assets at prices of week old mackerel…
Imho, real estate tax well explode, as governments see their plunder disappear. Corruption has a high price tag. Retirement accounts?
Isn’t the pain hidden from some by the amount of government support they receive ?
Oh, absolutely. They have become persuaded that they are not responsible for a single thing in their individual life. Their resentment and fury will escalate, as they look for stores to loot.
When the stores are finally mostly closed (which is already happening in many metropolitan areas because the business owners simply cannot sustain the costs of thefts and damage) and there is no easy-access-inventory to steal, they will turn to the residential areas….just like they predictably did in the summer of 2020 when they were honoring the memory and adopting the lifestyle of whatshisname George.
It will get real for them when they run out of Doritos with two weeks to go before the EBT reload.
Especially at superbowl time
I will share this insight, for what it is worth. If something breaks like a Lehman event, rates will be lowered to stimulate economic growth. However, there is higher chance no shock to the system occurs and rates will continue to rise to offset inflation to slow the economy down. The later is the course we are on.
Rates have been to low for to long. If there is a snap in the economy, asset prices will rise as the fed knows they have that option to lower rates in their toolbox.
Inflation is first and always a money supply issue. Prices go up and down with supply and demand, but the value of a dollar is a function of the amount of dollars in circulation and the need for those dollars as a medium for trade. If the petrodollar breaks, we will have inflation like this country has never seen before. The fact that the Saudis have required payment in dollars for decades is the only thing that allowed “The Club” to keep the party going this long. Once it becomes clear that OPEC will accept Yuan, or Euros, or Rupees, countries around the world will slash their dollar reserve holdings drastically.
$9 for a dozen eggs will look like a bargain.
I want to know, who do we owe? Our selves or somebody else. Nobody tell us that. I’m talking about America, my country.
We owe whoever we lent to. Anybody who purchased US Treasury bonds loaned money to the United States, and they expect repayment, with interest, just like any other lender.
The government also owes money to people who work, and are forced by law to pay into the Social Security and Medicare systems. The federal government “borrowed” that money and continues to “borrow” that money from the so-called “Social Security Trust Fund”. They replace that money with a journal entry. Basically an IOU from Uncle Sam. It is backed by nothing but the “good faith and credit” of the United States. Gives you a warm fuzzy feeling inside right about now doesn’t it?
The government also owes TRILLIONS of dollars to the Federal Reserve, who use freshly created money to buy US Treasury Bonds. Think of the FED as a national credit card with no limit, that “The Club” uses to feed their insatiable appetite for cash that they can enrich themselves with endlessly, knowing that they can ignore the bill.
People should not spend a lot of time worrying about the US debt, and just accept the reality that it is so enormous that it will NEVER be repaid. At least not with a currency worth anywhere near the value of what was originally lent. The government has already decided to default through inflation. They will print what they need to service the debt, which of course will only make inflation worse.
The only cure for inflation is to remove dollars from circulation (FED sells their bonds for dollars and removes them from the system), or to grow the US population dramatically and increase the demand for dollars that way. Neither one of those is likely to happen, but at least we can have some fun trying for the second one.
Neither of your solutions will work. Who is going to have the dollars to buy those bonds? No one. They are increasing the population and those people are being given money, housing, education, food, and phones. All of that is inflationary. There is not an economic solution to our problem.
Don’t forget the Russian Ruble. BRICS is a formidable antithesis to the West’s financial situation.
Terrific post!
Cheers!
https://ibb.co/rbzgbZr
Here we find ourselves…AGAIN!!!
The left love their pretending. When will they wake up?
I don’t mean to be rud and I really don’t care if I am, however,
that little girl is not the cutest thing.
rude
She’s not a little girl any more. She’s 20.
If I had behaved at 20 like she is, there would have been long line of relatives and lifelong neighbors contacting my parents and offering to slap me around a bit to see if it would help.
Looks like she is starting to put a lot of POUNDAGE on. I guess she isn’t eating that fake meat.
Depression.
Perhaps she is ONLY eating fake meat and a lot of soy cr*p. At any rate, she sure is a little butterball.
She will suffer the “Shirley Temple” syndrome?
Cute as a kid…but she grew out of it.
Next year it will take about 6 cops to fake arrest her and try to fake haul her away. Break out the wheelbarrow, boys in blue !!
The only green that spoiled brat is interested in is dollars. Someone is paying her to run around screaming the ‘house is on fire’. It’s a good grift and she’s working it well.
It’s the liberal look.
How DARE you !!!
LOL
Sundance — a suggestion would be for you to begin a thread, to get the ‘lay of the land’ — just like you did with your “Why Are You Not Jabbed” thread, it would be interesting to know from your audience.
These impacts may be regional & sporadic.
In my neck of the woods, store shelves are fully-stocked — and there are sales galore. Which leads me to think that there is too much grocery inventory, and they need to unload it.
Why would there be too much grocery inventory?
Interesting observation. My wife and I went to Walmart a few weeks ago. Produce prices were insane. Mr. Noodle was selling by the case. I felt so heart broken. A father had an entire case in his cart with his kids. I realized that they are starving us first by malnutrition. Anger stewed within me.
I’m seeing, like you, fully stocked shelves. I believe that millions of people are reducing food consumption and also the quality of food they buy simply because they can’t afford it. Now there is a glut of food available.
Most Canadians are simply too ill informed to understand why this is happening.
Although. Shout out to Sundance and CTH admin. I’m a member of a church group on current events. Someone posted an article from CTH. I’m guessing that CTH readership is far greater than we know. That is very encouraging.
DD
<Mr. Noodle was selling by the case.>
I didn’t think kids remembered Elmo’s World 🙂
Certain items are up but I find sales with no problem. Just bought 4 lbs of frozen extra jumbo shrimp for $4.50/lb. Most times it could be between $7.99 and 8.99. NY strip steak or t-bones last purchased at $5.99/lb. Boneless chicken breasts $1.49/lb. We buy on sale and put it in the small chest freezer. The wife is great about fixing dishes that use some meat and vegetables. Casseroles are big in our house.
I never heard of “Mr. Noodle.” I assume it’s a junk food.
Time to take down these junk food proprietors; including the proponents of the breakfast cereal companies (all sugars and manufactured ingredients), as well as the fake “energy bar” conglomerates. what a racket!!!
I remember as a kid, my mom would go to the town square to buy peanut butter manufactured on the premises by the propietor of the store. I wanted to have Skippy or Jiff like all the other kids, but my mom said that was all junk and not as healthy as the one made at this place of business.
Maybe ramen noodles? Nothing much nutrition wise, but a week’s worth of sodium and some pink bits of ‘meat’.
Yes, likely. Good shelf-stable carb and one can add the seasoning, or not, with the cheapest versions, or instead add protein, vegetables, etc, to make an inexpensive and nutritious meal.
I split the little 3oz packages into two servings and save the seasoning packets for emergency use if SHTF and commercial food gets cut off. Salt and spices can make otherwise bland repetitive food palatable, hence the ‘spice trade’ in the distant past.
Totally agree. To many people are programmed to think the sugar laden crap they are consuming is food.
It’s too bad you are not in here in Greater Vancouver, B.C.
Our grocery prices are IMO very reasonable with the exception of red meat. Even that can be gotten at reasonable cost if one knows their way around.
On sale Ambrosia apples were $1.00 a pound on sale last week ( usually about $1.69)
Pork and Chicken are reasonably priced.
We are fortunate as our farmers are excellent, and there are thousands of acres of greenhouses around.
A massive state of the art cannabis operation went bust, and the new owner bought the site on the cheap and produces tomatoes and other vegetables there.
Cheers!
“Why would there be too much grocery inventory?”
I would guess because many can no longer afford the prices. There are many things I used to buy and have on hand routinely, and just no longer do. Unlike the gubmint, I can’t just raise my debt limit again and again.
Grocery shopping today here, shelves full although selection very limited…not really many choices.. ya $185 for a cart of food with really not that much and not much meat really. Checkout careful with the pricey eggs.
I hear you, Sharon! I am now rationing my eggs as well as many other basic foods. Instead of eating 4 eggs a week, I’ve cut it down to 2 or 3.
focus on what I deem necessary for my health. It consists of animal, including fish, meat protein as a basic. Then i go to greens (lettuce, broccoli, brussels sprouts, red onions) and as an extra,a couple of times /week, a baked potato.
I will never give up my meat and fish. NEVER.
‘Which leads me to think that there is too much grocery inventory, and they need to unload it’. Except for perishables, yes.
The excess grocery items include the foolish fat and sugar-laden cereals as well as the calorie-laden so-called “energy bars.” Not to mention the calorie-laden “smoothies.” It is an outrageous scam.
The early settlers went out and performed all their farm chores at sun-up, if not slightly before, and then came in (after priming the water pump) to eat breakfast. Their breakfast consisted of what they had reaped and stored.
Early settlers…that’s what MY FAMILY DID – with the exception of the water pump!
A fairly common breakfast in our home was chicken fried steak, gravy, and biscuits, as well as a little orange juice on the side.
Be sure to check the expiration date on the food items. I found several on sale items just today that were on sale with the expiration date being this month.
JUSt and FYI those in most cases are NOT expirations DATES. They are Best used by. Which means squat. Canned food last a long Time. Learn how to judge a can. Many will last years beyond the best buy date. There is no rhyme or reason to how they do it. Its to make you think its not good and throw it away and buy knew.
Agreed; yogurt lasts a very long time after the ‘sell by date’…buy it when they put the sale tag on it…you will have it gone before 2 weeks.
Even meats/fish, etc., etc. freeze it.
I have purchased many bell peppers, etc. with ‘sell by dates’ and I just make roasted marinated peppers; delicious! Keeps for at least 2 weeks in the fridge.
Take advantage of the markdowns.
Just follow the price of chicken, eggs, and hamburger and power bills (electric + natural gas). In the heartland, eggs are in short supply and very expensive – under $5 a dozen is a bargain. I honestly do not know how people with children are making ends meet. I’ve heard most are simply maxing out credit cards for now.
Eggs are high due to avian bird flu. Just jumped from $1.78 to $3.74 here in Oregon. Poultry farmers are having to take extreme measures to protect their flocks. Social isolation for some. They do not want to pick up any infected particles to bring back to the hen houses. When you can get 50,000 canadian geese flying overhead crapping out infection it can be difficult.
Sure, egg prices have nothing to do with Communist taking over our Govt’ and attacking one of the cheapest sources of protein/food found at the stores which most people relied upon when times got bad.
reports are a NEW import from China in the Avian flu that can decimate our poultry operations……virus originates a mere 600 miles from Wuhan and is carried in the droppings of ducks and geese…..US birds farms have destroyed 58M laying hens to keep it in check…….the monitoring tests on a percentage of the destroyed birds costs $50 each to test for the flu
See Sarahjones65 above.
Were the chickens killed ? Yes.
Not for the reasons stated, however.
Yes, very sad. Chicken, eggs and hamburg are beyond affordable for many. As long as the Biden administration is in power, this will bot change; this is their “doctrine.”
Even the produce is increasing in price.
I believe a lot of this is simply “price gouging” because this administration is getting away with it.
Some people stocked up last summer and fall, some just can’t afford to buy more than they need right now. Some are taking advantage of any sales they see and leaving the other stuff.
Look at some of the comments on this post made by women all over the USA plus a few in Canada and the UK. See what they are experiencing and doing to save. I think it’s a good cross-section of people.
https://theprudenthomemaker.com/how-we-saved-money-the-second-week-of-january/
Thanks!
I checked out the website. I will be following.
And for others here that are book lovers check out Bookbub.
Thank you for this link. There are a few new ideas here which I like and can accommodate my home. I read it and will reread it again.
And your neck of the woods is where?
In my area, grocery shelves are still lined with junk food, shelf upon shelf with “Little Debbie” and many other junk entities. 2 days ago, on my shopping trip, I found no small bottles of my favorite olive oil, no favorite brand of my kalamata olives, and many other shortages. For the past 2 weeks, there were no chicken thighs. You can get boneless and skinless ones, but not the ones I love to buy and cook. Every week there is a “shortage” of stuff I want to purchase.
This New Wold Order needs to be abolished. The question is How Do We Do it?????
I just discovered this guy today — Joel Salatin (Homesteaders of America).
I discovered him on an interview with ‘Viva & Barnes Live’ — start at about the 12 minute mark:
Among many other things, he explains why so many hogs/pigs & chickens were slaughtered in recent years. The reason was the ‘supply chain’.
Great info in this video alone, although here are other videos from Mr. Salatin:
https://homesteadersofamerica.com/joel-salatin/
The bottom line is this — grow local; harvest local; process local & buy local.
Eat natural, unprocessed foods. Processed foods are killing people, slowly but surely.
If you can’t name everything on your plate in simple terms (exactly what it is!) — don’t eat it. The less UPC codes on the products you buy to consume, the better.
Commercial farming is destroying farming, along with the animals & soil.
I kinda see it like when my dad was in the war; he survived war chow for nearly four years, besides Fascist and Nazi bullets and bombs, and went on to live to a relatively old age. We’re at war now, some of us more or less than others. We’ll get through it.
It’s been months that I can buy everything on wifey’s weekly list at just one store. Things that are almost always in short supply here: cream cheese, ham, roast beef, certain cheeses.
As I said several weeks ago, when I go grocery shopping on Christmas Eve morning and the shelves are stocked with everything I need, that tells me that sales are slow. Because I am used to having to shop very early for toys, before they sell out, and early for groceries – especially things like baking supplies and holiday items.
I was at Whole Foods this afternoon and I noticed the egg shelf was empty.
we didn’t do store bought christmas at my house this year, just for the two tweens .
We made it more about “time together” .. we cooked together, we baked together
we did crafts, movies and games etc and it was more than enough
even if the economy becomes MAGA booming again, I don’t think we’ll go back to the commercialized Christmas ever again.
Good move, Ma’am, and especially good for your tweens. We jettisoned the Xmas routine after the first one was born and, although people thought we were cruel and crazy (especially our own families), they turned out just fine – all 4 of them.
That’s the point — “they” don’t want you to. BS to that!
I agree, Deborah. The “gift-giving” went beyond what the Christmas Spirit was all about. I agree that little kids and tweens should have the “magic” of Christmas, it’s past time to reign it in.
“even if the economy becomes MAGA booming again, I don’t think we’ll go back to the commercialized Christmas ever again.”
Amen. You get Deborah. Christ is Christmas! Thank you for posting this!
Bad news for China and just as they begin their demographic decline. I wonder what Xi will do to keep the population under control?
War is a good tool for this.
Instead of exporting manufactured goods they’ll be exporting ordnance.
Brilliant plan, if they win.
I am still concerned with an excess male population in the military age range of 40-50M…….that is inherently UNSTABLE and normally results in a war when there is a large demographic tilt like that
Speaking of “excess male population in the military age range….,” there are millions that keep coming across our southern border.
Anything he pleases…..which is how the WEF wants every government to be.
I see Microsoft is laying of 10k…. Useful idiots of Bill Gates.
Bill Gates has had little to do with the day to day operations of Microsoft for some years now.
Satya Nadella is the CEO that you want to assign the blame to.
https://www.businessinsider.com/read-email-microsoft-ceo-sent-employees-announcing-10000-job-cuts-2023-1
That’s right because we want Bill to be the face of the genocide his hands are all over with Covid bioweapon. Put that mass murdere in prison where he belongs.
Not like he was hiding being all for depopulation for many years.
Wasn’t he also the son of one of the founders of Planned Parenthood?
William Gates Sr. was a staunch eugenicist.
It will be good to have these techies get their fingernails dirty and learn what struggle is all about.
its simple arithmetic and common sense
the country is going downhill slowly but surely
Credit cards maxed out…
No money, no spendy.
It’s as simple as that…
I paid off and closed the one credit card I had about two months ago. Didn’t use it much and when I got notification of a 2% interest increase (from 14-16%) I just got rid of it, knowing the pattern was set and would continue.
I have one with 9.9% interest rate……..surprisingly they have never raised the rate. Strange.
We have just this evening had the credit card talk with our twin 17 year old grandlads and their 14 year old sister. Complete with figures on paper. The difference between “I need” vs “I want”. Only two of the many points we made.
Wise, Sharon.
Tell that to Congress ….
Ha! They need to be made to hear it, Please.
They’re not spending their own money. That’s the problem
I have an employee that has 6 credit cards. I was shocked when he told me this. My son, who slings real estate, said it’s not uncommon to have that many credit cards. Yikes
i admit i am not the brightest bulb… but IMO the key is no balance, not necessarily no cards. my wife and i actually have a bunch now, with no balance or annual fees.
if the SHTF at some point and society is collapsing, and i have no other options, i’ll be happy to turn that unsecured, pretend money into actual tangible goods that continue to sustain us. the banks can go fornicate themselves.
i’d love to be the guy i wanted to be when younger – always following the rules and never being a burden… but frankly all that got me was stolen from repeatedly and constantly. i will return the favor if the roof starts caving in on this former republic.
You are absolutely right Mord Bord. The key is zero balances.
I counseled the grown kids years ago the key to gaining and keeping primo credit rating was to use the cards and pay it off then let it sit a few months and operate on a different one in cycles.
Their credit score went from 600 and one even less to 820. It makes the card companies crazy when all I do is occasionally put $50 on one to keep it active.
I flat refuse to allow a credit card company to get a single penny of interest which is why I pay off balance. If I need something that I can’t make or fix I save up and pay for it in full.
NOT one cent will the banksters get. No mortgage, car loans or card interest.
I couldn’t get credit when I needed it so it became a vendetta against the banks.
An interesting aside, when I married my husband in 1970; he didn’t have a credit card. He paid everything with cash, even large purchases, e.g.: his trucks, horses, trailers, clothes, you name it!
If there was no cash; there was no purchase.
When we married, we needed to show a credit card for something (I cannot remember what it was) and I had to give my Sears credit card. That was the only credit card we carried for many years.
We still deal with cash and stash cash.
Amen! The one we use most pays us $25 every time we spend a certain amount anyplace for anything. Since we pay it off every single month, we never pay any interest and get paid, instead, to use their money for the month. No fees either.
Economic warfare 🙂
I knew of a married couple who bought two new Lexuses (plural Lexi? Just kidding…) weeks apart, she being the first. He is a doctor.
Her credit card debt at the time of finance was $136,000 with double digit interest rates. She was furious with the 4% rate she’d be paying on her car loan.
She couldn’t understand why her credit card debt was any of the salesman’s business when he correctly pointed out that 4% beat the high double digit rate she was paying on her credit card. He had to point out also that it was necessary to know it for her finance application.
And that is called financial illiteracy. I don’t believe she was a one of either.
Excuse me, I need to go pick my jaw up off the floor.
If you find mine, pick that up, too, Mari. Thank you.
(PS…her husband had $100,000 on his…)
Good lord… Back around 2016, I worked with a woman who refi’d their house to take out cash to pay off her and her husband’s credit cards, pay off their cars and start college funds for their 2 preteen daughrers. They were maybe 2-3 years from paying the mortgage off but went back to 15 years with a lower payment. Fast forward 3 years – no college funds because they HAD to have 2 very fancy Bat Mitzvahs (someone Jewish care to explain to me why one was Star Wars themed and the other Harry Potter for a religious celebration?), they continued taking $6-10K vacations annually because she DESERVED them and hubby’s credit cards were approaching $40K but that last wasn’t HER fault even though he bought all the groceries on them and paid for their 3-4 meals out every weekend because she DESERVED to not have to cook on the weekends). When our boss and I both retired, she had 10 years to go but was lamenting that she didn’t think they would ever have enough to retire. Yep, pretty sure you won’t.
It all boils down to foresightedness. Instant gratification has taken the place of that, as it clearly did with them long ago.
Now does not mean forever more. Priorities, priorities…
Just because a person has a college degree and is employed as a professional, has no bearing on their ability to balance a checkbook or make wise financial decisions.
That is an ability that is learned as a child and accelerated into adulthood.
That’s the difference in at least 2 generations after the zany Baby-Boomers. The Boomers had money and many societal advantages their parents did not have. With those advantages they gave more to their children with the false belief system that they were doing a very good thing for society.
We are now living through the end result of that child-rearing philosophy.
I suspect in the next generations, wiser parents will be forced to ensure that their children accept responsibility and learn how to manage money, otherwise, they will face grave consequences, as the digital dollar becomes a reality, their freedoms are restricted or lost and the boot of the government will be placed neatly on their necks for the remainder of their days in tyranny.
It’s their choice.
You’re right on all counts, Abigail.
Experience is a funny thing. It gives one the exam first and the lesson after.
“But you learn,” as CS Lewis said. “My God you learn.”
There really are going to lot of tears and shocked faces when it all happens.
Wait! She had a problem with her 4% car loan but not double-digit credit card interest? That is not financial illiteracy. That is pure, undiluted, stupidity beyond stupid.
I was being polite…
…biting my lip while I typed that.
I thought you were being “gentle”!!!!!
anyone teaching the “debt reduction ball” technique always counsels you to pay off the HIGHEST interest rate of consumer loans first….this free up much more disposable income at an accelerating pace
Yeah and common sense should tell them that. You really should not need a “counselor” to point it out. I am one of those millennials you hear about, and I KNOW that. Then again, my brain cells are intact.
“…those same suppliers and multinationals are furiously trying to calculate how to avoid being stuck with billions worth of unsold inventory and idle industrial equipment.“
It is my fervent hope that they choke on it. The quicker, the better.
For my part, when I shop, I’ll shop Main Street, mom & pop.
Right now when I see a new used clothing or second hand shop opening up I always think that they have a chance of surviving right now.
A new specialty store opening up – I believe the majority will quickly fail.
My good friend at a $20 billion paint manufacter just told me they are cutting UNIT production forecast by 10% this year.
I told him they will be lucky if its only 10%…
Offices are closing, no one is buying houses…
Only people who can paint are the unemployed with time on thier hands and able to afford $100 a gallon for paint.
FJB!
I’ll say it again.
FJB
PRIME credit rated auto loans repossessions have hit 3-4%. Normally below 2%. Banks are cutting auto financing as dealers are packed with over priced inventory.
Most likely repo’s will hit 20-30% in this Democrat induced slowdown, as vehicle prices have never been so out of touch.
Isn’t it funny how not only do the Democrat nuts support Unions causing vehicle prices to double and triple from the norms, but then the Democrats crash the economy with bad policy, some might even say enemy sabotage of our economy; causing people to lose their vehicles.
People should look on the bright side, as on the other hand weapons sales have gone up … … way up.
As have Zelensky’s and Biden’s bank account balances.
Tell it!!!!!!!!!
Something I wonder about every day is what event, what calamitous circumstance(s) will jar people from their stupor and awaken them to reality? What will it take to arouse the masses to action.
That is the first question. The second question-which in many ways is more important-is do those currently manufacturing this economic and societal meltdown have a plan to manage it to their benefit-or, are they just winging it?
To the 2nd question – they have a plan. Crash the economy, install a One World Government with Central Bank Digital Currency along with Digital ID, Basic Universal Income, you will own nothing, eat bugs, mandatory jabs and be happy.
Sadly, that will look good to too many people
Maximus-Cassius, imho, the “Arousal” part you mention is the masses being repeatedly kicked in the jewels.
Unfortunately, for the majority, the “Action” part you mentioned entails turning to “Social Media/MSM” for guidance.
They winging it. They don’t care about nobody but themselves. Folks, you are on your own. The government is not to help you. Better be vigalent.
I’ve contemplated both those things myself. The media can only gloss over so much. And what makes our WEF aligned friends so confident they’ll come out unscathed?
The FJB Consumer Price Index has risen to around 140 from 100 the day he was installed.
That’s the true measure of what these criminals have done.
If this is the face of global fascism and multinationals are guiding the way … what does this say about their business model? Don’t they need customers to buy stuff? Don’t they want to maximize profits in the long run? This sounds like shooting themselves in the foot.
I think the same. Those rich cockroaches in Davos want to remake the world in their image but their image is insane and they won’t be able to enslave everyone and keep their highfaluting lifestyle the same as today. They’re stupid “smart” people for sure.
Well if they want to remake the world in their image, it means we all will be driving large SUV’s and flying in private jets that run on fossil fuels.
The Davos disciples want to order us how we should run our lives, and it is not the same way they run their lives.
Phoniness on a grand scale!
There won’t be any lifestyle if they have killed many of us off…..no matter how many replacements they bring. Those would rather take what they have than serve them. IMHO
They’re trying to hurry, as most of them are pretty long in the tooth, and they’d like to enjoy the “fruits” of their “vision” before they end up thrown into hell for all eternity.
More and more, I speculate about how many of the Davos WEF crowd have paid for multiple human organs from murdered “donors.” I think they would gladly receive them knowing how they were obtained.
The most dangerous humans on the planet: Stupid smart people.
Leaving company names out, there is at least one major industrial Dow stock that hasn’t reported unit sales nor provided guidance for well over a year, but does report inflated revenue and flat to declining profits. It’s share price goes up because of buybacks and hopes of a return to QE. There is little truth in most economic news now it seems. Our economy is addicted to very large sums of printed money. And the establishment Republicans and their preferred candidate DeSantis are fully onboard.
Why leave out the company name?
2023 is going to be a very bad year in more ways than one.
Anyone who goes shopping for anything, must know how costs continue to skyrocket. Not to mention the low quality of produce and much of the meat/poultry/fish that is being stocked and sold.
Delicatessen prices are completely out of sight for anything good to high quality.
I shop and buy what is on sale to stock up on and I do not buy anything pre-made and occasional corned beef or roast beef from the deli; that’s out the window. I brine my corned beef and roast my own rump roast, along with everything else.
It’s back to the days of cooking for the kids, so they had lunch meats and soups, stews, whatever was necessary when they came home alone or with friends, while we were working.
I thought it would be easier and less expensive when we retired; not so. Currently, I’m spending monthly cooking for 3 adults, the same that I spent when I had 2 adults, 2 teenagers and their countless friends coming in daily.
That also excludes sweets, sodas, and other junk-type foods.
We’re fortunate that we live in the Egg Capital (near Athens GA), so we can find eggs and we buy plenty and we are in a rural area, which is far better than in or near Atlanta.
For us, it’s basics and I know that others sense the same as they shop and look for the best prices. The shelves are full, however, shoppers seem to be picking and choosing what is necessary, not what they feel like buying.
People are not happy, you can see it in their faces as they search for something worthwhile to put in their shopping carts.
It’s not a good sign.
The food pantries are having a hard time also and there are plenty of poor people. However, they don’t want the food from the pantries, they want the 1.99/burger and fries. The younger generation doesn’t cook (majority) like so many of the older folks.
Don’t get me started on the illegals that are here and they are easy to spot in the stores.
I don’t recall a downturn happening this quickly, while the government denies it with every report, in my lifetime.
Those of us who lived and worked through Carter would be a good demographic to sample. IME, that period was like a cakewalk, a party, compared to what’s going on now. A very few of us who are old enough to remember the Depression probably have more informed opinions.
I keep a peanut butter jar of nails my mom straightened as a reminder of that indoctrination. It wasn’t a party.
Lots of car repossessions taking place now because the residual auto loan amounts are more than the car is worth.
For the same reason, Elon Musk says the car market, particularly the electric car market, is a train wreck about to happen.
the “only way” for lenders to finance vehicles and help dealers get cars in the hands of consumers is to waive the open auto stipulations on loans — effectively letting buyers take out an additional loan while a first loan is still in progress, creating a high risk of default.
https://cleantechnica.com/2023/01/12/elon-musk-others-warn-of-looming-auto-crisis/
You would think at some point the dealers will have to start dropping the price to get them moved.
Or the manufacturer has to drop the price he charges the dealer.
Which is a strong probability since the manufacturer does not want his dealers to go bankrupt. Dealers are the only place that sells new cars.
“This morning I discovered something *extremely* alarming happening in the car market, specifically in auto lending. I’m now convinced that there is a massive wave of car repossessions coming in 2023.”
Supposedly a big dealer owner (Musk quotes the guy) and his explanation is here:
Tweets by GuyDealership
Twitter post around December 16 2022 8:50am
Wow, where have I heard something that rhymes with this? Oh right, 07…
Whaaaaa?
My son works for UPS.
He said that the company ended its “peak” season two weeks earlier than usual and his supervisors estimated that shipping was down about 10% during the peak (Christmas) period.
Since Amazon has their own fleet of drivers, I think they cut into both UPS and Fedex
According to my son, UPS is still transporting tractor-trailer loads of packages for Amazon.
I work and live in east central PA. Amazon built a new facility (the third in my immediate area) near were I work which opened in 2018. A new interchange on the state highway nearby was constructed to accomodate the traffic flow. Guess what opened up next store to Amazon? Yup, a new UPS hub. It is hilarious to see UPS rigs leaving Amazon, go down the road roughly a quarter of a mile and pull into UPS.
Let’s just face it Democrats did what they always do wreck the economy while enriching their donors at the same time.
Official inflation is 7-9%.
Most people know it’s higher, figure 15-20%.
Armstrong said real 2022 inflation was 32%.
If even after adjusting for official inflation sales in nominal dollars are falling, then real sales for discretionary items are positively cratering as people rapidly and dramatically change spending priorities.
So things are breaking.
The big question is, what breaks worst first in a high-profile way (and how best to prepare for it)?
I was in a Walmart supercenter store the afternoon of Friday, January 7. I parked 3 spots down from the sidewalk with about 10 empty spaces across 2 rows. This never happens. The store had customers but not nearly as many as usual. The weather was great so not a reason to be staying home. Canning jars in every size were sold out but Christmas items at 75% off were still on the shelves. Four people were using self-checkout rather than the usual dozen with a line. Several cashiers had no line to check out. I also went to Aldi and they had a bunch of Christmas stuff as well with people seeming to be concentrating on buying food.
It’s hitting in this area. January sales should be very interesting.
Walmart’s and Sam’s clubs in North Carolina are the same. Customer numbers are drastically reduced. Products are being marked down because of date expire. Shoppers that are shoping are doing more walking around than putting items in their carts. Egg demand because of price has gone down. Dairy products from low sales are going out of date. Produce is poor quality but available. High end meat products are available but few people are buying. Ham,chicken and low end pork roasts are the items being purchased. Those christmas spiral hams are the best buy on clearance. Many pharmacy prescription items are not available anywhere in town.
Looks like I’ll be able to score a good deal to replace my almost 10 year old laptop in the near future. Being a frequent credit card user I haven’t carried a balance in almost 12 years.
It’s been close to twenty-five years since I have carried a balance. I was a single mom of a 2 year old and starting to struggle so I did the one thing every financial adviser says to not do. I borrowed against my 401K with a five year loan and paid every credit card off. The interest rate was much lower and the payments were about $50 less per month than the cards. The bigger thing it bought me was peace of mind. That was priceless.
There is almost no “free” better than debt-free.
Thomas Jefferson is quoted as saying there are TWO forms of slavery…..physical slavery and economic slavery…..CC debt is a voluntary form of the latter
Same here.
My tablet went out awhile ago. It was really old.
Waiting for the prices to go down even farther.
Then I will seriously consider buying another.
Wait until all the Christmas returns are back. Stood in line at a major dept store for a long time to get rid of a bunch of stuff I ordered online and was disgusted by the poor quality.
If these numbers were in President Trump first half his first term what a show news would be.
Bottom feeding will soon be optimizing.
Well let’s see what the SEC, FASB and the big accounting firms can do to help them out
But some of the multinationals are experiencing something that requires them to lay off large numbers of workers. Microsoft is letting go about 10,000 announced today.
I wonder if our Treasury Secretary was panicking yesterday when Saudi Arabia announced that it would be open to accepting other payments than US dollars.
Everybody should be concerned at the Saudi announcement.
Welcome to AmeriKa.
I believe this is my fifth or sixth “recession” since I graduated high school in ‘71. This I believe will be a doozy. I’m waiting for the US Govt cheese. And oatmeal!
I keep a good rotating stock of oatmeal at all times, a bit more now. I’ll never disparage the humble oat because I make FANTASTIC oatmeal – cinnamon, honey, dried cherries, topped with chopped walnuts, blueberries, and a splash of milk.
Brown sugar, raisins (occasionally dried cranberries), quick oats and milk, often with a splash of syrup. I even make up several jars of the oats, sugar and raisins at a time. If I’m going to fix one, fixing 6 is no big deal.
Old fashioned oatmeal, with brown sugar, raisins, dried apple bits, and cinnamon. Yum.
That, as my dad would remind us around in the 1950s, will stick to your ribs.
Hearing on MSNBC that the price of non-essentials are dropping and it is a ‘good thing’ made me laugh. The price of non-essentials are dropping because buying the essentials eats up the entire paycheck. There is nothing left for the non-essentials.
Gas prices in my area of Central Florida are rising again too
Up 30 cents a gallon yesterday here.
same here – NW Louisiana.
I know they are all pretending; as Sundance has diligently outlined for a while now.
That said, I’m still confused how every other month they keep saying we are heading in to recession when I swear we’ve been in one for just about two years. And I don’t mean that in the sense of their pretending. I mean “everyone” has already acknowledged, albeit begrudgingly, that we already are in one previously. Am I crazy?
First there was the recession where they quickly changed the definition of one, for the first time ever, to falsely claim we weren’t, but that’s still admitting it. Then, even after the definition changed I could have sworn that just a few months later we were in one even defining it by their new definition. And everyone agreed?! That was a few months before the election, IIRC.
I feel like dejavu every time I keep reading new quotes from these lackeys that say we are heading in to one in the future or that they expect one to come. When did we ever pull out from the last? What am I missing? Please help fill in my memory gap.
Finally, recession used to happen every 7 years or so like clockwork. Is it simply the case that now that 7 year cycle happens every 5 months? Is that why they keep talking like I’ve mentioned? Are we supposed to accept that it’s a 6 months on recession, 6 months off cycle forever now?
You can’t negotiate with liars and you can’t depend on liars to tell you what’s going on. Stop trying to understand it. That’s just exhausting.
that is a temporary “redefinition” of what a recession is…IF and when an America FIRST candidate is able to beat the FRAUD machine of the Uniparty in an election it will revert to the old definition
SD is the best. Thanks for the economic follow up.
It’s super simple on Mainstreet.
Eggs are hitting $8+/dozen or they aren’t available at all, or they’re available, but you’re limited to 2 dozen. EGGS!!!!
Shelves are empty at a lot of stores. If they aren’t empty, they’re stuffed with off brands or with cheap crap from China rather than real food.
Not going to eat ze bugs or the GMO/mRNA lettuce or lab grown “meat” or any other fake food they peddle. I’m going to grow food. Real food. And I’m going to make sure my elderly neighbors have real food to eat. It’s just that simple to me.
We are nosediving into a Greater than the Great Depression. The talking heads are all liars.
Love y’all. Take care and keep your powder dry.
I asked my grandpa when I was very young, “How did you survive the Great Depression?”
Grandpa said to me, “We all went back to the Farms.”
Okay I got to ask, what area are you in? I’m on northern WA coast and we still have store shelves with food but prices rising. Got 3 dozen eggs for $8. I think you are right about get back to the farm. We enlarged our garden area in fall.
Got my seeds, three weeks to go until I start them on February 15th. I will be sharing what I can produce this year.
The eggs thing is weird. I bought eggs today for $1.99 a dozen, limit 5 dozen. They were on sale. Regular price $2.99. I bought my 5 dozen.
I think the eggs scam is a Democrat con…. some in the medical field also used eggs to make Covid Poison jabs, but that should not have caused the price spikes…. that is a Biden/Obama Magic touch.
Suppliers and multinationals good give their unsold merchandise to the people their policies have harmed?
Nah. Won’t happen.
Most Americans have decided to only purchase those things that they truly need or have put aside money to purchase. The “boomers” (which includes me) have adult children, and the conversations have been had regarding nonsense spending just to “give gifts.” It looks like the true meaning of Christmas will prevail, as it should. Enough with foolish spending, especially when the economy is in the toilet.
My wife and I had about an hour to entertain ourselves, so we decided to visit a very popular shopping center in a large southern city. It was between Thanksgiving and Christmas. It was practically deserted. Employees outnumbered shoppers. It was creepy. We walked around in unbelief. This center is in a wealthy neighborhood. Even outside the mall, the stores were sort of busy with shoppers, but checkout lines were open with no waiting. A few lookers and few buyers. We knew then that this was going to be bad.
Amazon has announced its discontinuing the “Amazon Smile” program very soon this year.
Blamed it on lack of expected growth in usage of the program.
Considering the massive layoffs they’ve recently announced, a better bet is that they don’t want to afford the few percent less in profits.
Charities / 501c3’s that benefitted from this program will have to look elsewhere…,
Gotta love corporate double talk… lack of expected growth in usage, heh…
All US charities have received
$400,026,236.70
as of December 2022
Even the tiny no-kill shelter I support has received nearly a quarter million in their time in the program.
Half a billion dollars. Lightly used program. /s
Exactly. Of course Amazon won’t reveal the truth and tries to deflect and defend its greed by blaming a lack of participation, but the numbers are staggering and someone of prominence hopefully will challenge Amazon’s veracity on this excuse.
The Dow dropped 600 points today … and I don’t foresee ANY positive economic news in the near future. In fact, now that the media seems to be piling on old dementia Joe, I expect they will finally admit that we’ve been in a recession for at least two quarters, and that all the INSANE Federal spending $$ has doomed our economy for a long time moving forward.
But Stuart Varney will be bashing Putin in the morning … and telling all the suckers that this is a GREAT BUYING OPPORTUNITY!! … as if … and then he’ll say that only Ron DeSantis can save us, because he’ll help Blackrock Stock shoot up, up, up …
January is a perfect time to drain those retirement accounts and perform a bank run. Destroy the beast. For the bold, default on all non-recourse debt. Force lawsuits. Force seizures. Force war. Let’s get to it. All this pussyfooting around just entrenches the WEF folks more. Feudalism inbound. Enjoy the ride. There’s no George Washington on the horizon. The sun never sets on the WEF Empire.
but all that federal spending was good for the Federal govt’ employees and their $100,000+ salaries.
KB Homes, a large home builder, just reported a 68% CANCEL RATE.
Cont….
The truth is at your local Walmart. Go in any time on a Friday and say my God there’s nobody here no lines on a Friday? Our eyes don’t lie.
Thank goodness my ‘local’ Walmart is over an hour away through the forest and i’ll never, ever, set foot in it as long as I breathe. Getting away from corporate fascism loomed large in my decision of where to go to die. Dealt with it in business enough for 40-some years. I doubt I’ll live to see the day when a critical mass of like-minded people make places like Walmart into ghost-towns. It is what it is. Free will. God bless us.
Nailed it.
This really begets the question: “what will corporations do when the government partnership shrinks their sales?” Fiat corporate welfare.
If sales are up, why are all these businesses losing their @$$€$?