Have you ever seen egg prices at $1 per egg range, or $12/doz? Hold on a few months and perhaps you will. That is the context for the scale of food price increases the USDA is now starting to predict. The highest predicted change in food costs in well over 40 years, that’s the USDA warning in their revised May “Food Price Outlook”. [DATA HERE]
This month the USDA just re-re-revised the forward price outlook, and things are grim. It likely doesn’t come as a surprise to many CTH readers because we have been discussing the convergence of events since October of 2021, when we first were able to predict Wave-1 (Dec/Jan), and Wave-2 (March/Apr) inflation. However, the underlying data for Wave-3 is double the prior two phases.
Keep in mind the data is national & skewed toward low estimations as represented by (+).
When the USDA predicts egg prices increasing by 19.5 to 20.5% (from where those prices are now), there will be regions with much higher retail increases than estimated.
Just two months ago, USDA had egg inflation at 2.5%-3.5% range, year over year. Again, that’s the scale of change; from a 3.5% forward outlook to a 20.5% forward outlook effective right now.
Food at home (grocery store) prices: up 7% to 8% in this monthly review, versus the April outlook of a rise of 5% to 6%. That means the USDA is predicting the highest grocery store price rise since 1980 when prices rose 8.1% (prices rose 7.2% in 1981). There is no reason to think the USDA forecast will not rise again in June.
[Click graphic to expand – Data Set Here]
If you have not taken food price stability seriously before now, please take proactive measures to secure your family. We are talking about future retail food prices that were simply unfathomable last year.
You know how much prices at the supermarket have increased in the last six months. Double that, and there’s your estimation for food prices later this fall.
Behind all the datasets, statistics, BEA, BLS, USDA and analysis of these things, there are real people living paycheck-to-paycheck that are likely to be in serious food insecurity position for the first time in their lives.
I’m not talking about poor people, I’m talking about solid upper middle-class working families with kids who are already being hit hard by gasoline, energy, housing and grocery store increases. Another twenty percent increase in food costs can easily become a crisis.
The core issue is this snowball of production costs inside the field to fork supply chain. Diesel prices, fertilizer prices, energy prices, seed and feed prices, all of it has doubled and tripled in less than a year.
Add in transportation and distribution costs that have doubled, and all of that cumulative impact is going to flow through the food supply chain from the field to the processor (wholesaler), and into the supermarket. Fresh foods, especially in the produce section, will catch many people off guard.
Not all news associated with this is bad news. As you read this you have information that allows you to take control and be proactive. YOU will not be part of the national population that is stunned in September and October. YOU know what is coming. With that in mind, do what you can today, tomorrow, this week, to be proactive and offset the impact. Taking action reduces stress.
Perhaps shop proactively for your holiday shelf stable food items now. Look at the circulars and on-line for coupons, not for then – but for use now. Perhaps learn to make some of the foods you would normally purchase already prepared. Small proactive seeds, kept in mind while carrying on day-to-day life.
I know from reading comments that many of you have planted ‘victory gardens’ this year. Those harvests are worth 50% more now they were three months ago. That’s the way to look at it. Every amount of saving matters…. and yes, grandma carefully washed the aluminum foil and reused it for a reason.
My grand mother as well use to wash off her aluminum foil to reuse. That would have been late 60’s early 70’s.
I still do it. I reuse foil 3-4 times at least before discarding.
And rinsing out plastic freezer bags to reuse, and saving bacon grease. Using washable flour sack towels instead of wasteful paper towels. Composting table scraps and starting your home garden, in soil/pots/raised beds or grow bags…….YES!
SD thanks for keeping us informed!
Unfortunately i a lone voice crying in the wilderness.
My biggest obstacle to preparing is my disbelieving wife lol.
And among a couple hun
I started prepping with the first COVID lockdowns. We bought an extra freezer at that time. But after Sundance wrote that “prices are going up so plan accordingly” post, I began buying shelf stable food in earnest. My husband tolerated all my prepping measures with a bemused smile and a shoulder shrug, but the $5 gas and the baby formula shortage has thrust him squarely into the “I hope we’re wrong” category. He’s definitely freaked. He’s planning on putting some more shelves in the basement.
Try to raise a garden if you are able. A few laying hens can keep you supplied with eggs. Learn to can and dehydrate foods, because electricity may become sketchy.
Only share your concerns and preps with those you trust.
FYI, for us beginning canners, there is a real learning curve. Got a 23 quart Presto pressure canner. Been testing it using only water on our glass top stove, to see how it works and attempting to master the art of attaining and maintaining proper pressure for our altitude before trying actual jars of food. Not to discourage anyone who wants to learn. This is very doable! And absolutely worthwhile. But it will take some time, research, learning, trial and error. Just be aware. Happy canning!
I hear you about the pressure canner. I remember helping my Mom when all 5 kids were still at home and we were canning tomatoes and they ended up on the kitchen ceiling. We had a helluva mess! Not to mention, no tomatoes left. It’s not as easy as it sounds.
My hubby is building shelves in our laundry room for food storage. I am glad you and I are awake and aware, and pray that millions more see the light!~
My grand mother as well use to wash off her aluminum foil to reuse. That would have been late 60’s early 70’s.
So food riots set commence right before mid term elections. Why am I not surprised? The occupational regime is engineering all this economic pain. They called the citizens of the US enemies of the state. Does that sound like a representative government to you? Is that sinking in yet?
Prepped for nearly 10 years but this year I’ve expanded my garden planning to include sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, corn, both canning tomatoes and sauce, 3 types green beans, carrots, 3 types peas, broccoli including spinach, lettuces, kale. I’ve planned in a succession planting for fall. Increase broiler chicks by +30 this year for a total 70 in two batches. For 3 years I’ve been working on a fast growing meat bird and will phase that production into this year’s second broiler batch. That way I can raise my own broilers in event chicks are inaccessible. Culled my layer to the most productive and maintain a Rooster. Preservation includes canning and mainly freeze drying. Two freezers full of protein and off grid solar system in event of grid down. I’m expecting to help at least one if not two families on my rural road. I can always use the extra protection/security.
Do what you have to do to sustain in these times. Place a food barrier as I call it between you and the Commies.
They want to control us all via food shortages, gas shortages, etc.
America needs to revert back to its old days and get rid of all the parasites leaching off of us.
These Democrat nuts spread throughout Govt’ need to get a real life productive job and quit Stealing from us. It’s obvious most of them are in Govt’ to create problems at our expense and not fix them.
They’re in gubmint jobs because they don’t have to work, they are allowed to fly all over creation and they get all kinds of other perks, too. Those people could care less about you and yours. We need to vote them all out and start over. I’m highly disappointed in my state reps. 1 in particular is a complete dud, always has been. He could NOT make a living doing anything but sponging off the gubmint (which is really US).
You don’t think biden throws around/shares his OWN money, do you? Not on your life.
You are a hero!
This^^^^^^^!!!!
According to Volodin (chairman of the state Duma in Russia), “Joe Biden and Zelensky will go down in history as presidents who staged a famine on the planet.”
My concern is for those of us who are working close to the line already – I have two boys with special needs and my husband is disabled. I work and earn more money than I did a few years back but we’re hurting so badly right now between meds and transportation (lots of appointments) I am unsure how else to get ahead.
I’ve planted tomatoes and other veggies and am trying to stockpile what I can but I can only do so much. I’m really worried I’ll be letting my family down.
I can’t figure out how we deal with this as it gets worse. Our money is already limited so my stockpiling is also limited. How the heck do those of us already on the edge financially prepare for what’s to come?
well in grad school i had to and did begin a Lifetime of Learning all the delicious food you can make out of almost nothing. The same food as before, does not work. But there are recipes that do. It was not depressing; it was interesting. I found out that being thrifty is basically the whole underlying idea of French cuisine 🙂 how to not let go of one shrimp shell before you got the flavor out of it. most of the best dishes were thought up under pressure….
There are some great “Depression Era” cookbooks out there with some great ideas of how to use, use, and re-use things. And how to save $$ doing it. Ways to stretch recipes and ingredients. I would recommend looking into some of those ideas as a first best-effort move.
I cut everything I could to stock up on sales. Nothing is going down in price. One store had Ragu pasta sauce on sale this week for 99¢ a jar. I bought 2 cases.
I’m doing it as cheaply as possible. I can and do make my own sauce, but tomatoes aren’t cheap either!
Plant potatoes. Calorie dense and very nutritious and very easy to store. They can be raised in cardboard boxes. See YouTube for more info on this and lots of other ways to raise food and live cheaply.
Can you get a few laying hens? Eggs can be stretched by making a quiche ( four eggs, one cup of milk and whatever leftover meat and veggies you have.)
Can your hubby do some light kitchen duty? Have him learn to bake bread. Great YouTube video on the Jennycancook channel. Much cheaper than buying bread. She had a no-knead bread recipe that is doable by anyone who can stir a spoon.
Consider taking in a border. Maybe you will need to find another place to live. Maybe you can join forces with family or friends.
Do you belong to a church? Might be some help there.
Food banks are still in business. See if you qualify. If you or your hubby are military vets you may qualify for some sort of help.
You are in a tough spot, but our grandparents went the same thing during the Great Depression.
They survived. You will, too. God be with you, Dearheart.
ps- you are NOT letting your family down. I am proud of you!
My grandma reused our wrapping paper, boxes and bows on our gifts❤️ I admired her for it because my dad took the time to help us understand why.
We used to wrap things in newspapers, especially the comics section because it was colorful. Don’t think too many people will be able to afford to give many gifts this year tho. I know my family has cut way back on doing that sort of thing.
I’m going to see if I can find a local bunch of illegals who are getting everything free, and see if I can get them to do my grocery shopping for me. They won’t be paying for my stuff though, I will pay for it. I’ll get their prices and pay them direct with cash and a small tip for their service. They’ll be thrilled. It’s more than they ever got in their homeland, I’m sure of it. For all I know they may even pay lower prices than what you and I would have to pay at the checkout. I don’t know how biden has that aspect worked out. Whatever it is, you can bet it will be on your dime and mine.