The business and financial wires are melting down today as ADP Payrolls, the nation’s largest private sector payroll providing service, releases data from January showing a drop of 301,000 jobs. [ADP Raw Data Here]
The financial, economic and business pundits are completely caught off guard and using the words “shocked”, “unexpected” and “surprised,” within their analysis. These employment numbers just don’t align with an economy growing at 6.9%, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). However, for CTH readers who have carefully scrutinized the economic claims and looked at the bigger picture through the prism of kitchen table checkbook economics, these results are not a surprise.
Every sector of the employment picture on Main Street USA is hit. The pundits, following the narrative first seeded by the White House on Monday, are pointing to Omicron as the justification inside their review. That’s nonsense. For the better part of seven months these same pundits first claimed Delta, then shifted to Omicron as a way to explain the structurally weak economy. All of that is nonsense.
What we are witnessing are the outcomes of massive inflation now hitting the labor market. A drop in demand, and a subsequent drop in the employment of goods and services, is an unavoidable outcome of inflationary pressure on wages.
Let me say it again, on a macro level, natural consumer DEMAND has dropped – we are only now starting to see it surfacing in the statistical measures.
This is why White House spokesperson Jen Psaki made that weird statement on Monday.
Given the nature of how heavily manipulated the government institutions are, there’s a strong likelihood the Bureau of Labor and Statistics have been surprised by their January employment polling results. That internal tremor, a concern amid the political tribe, is then conveyed to someone, who then relays the warning to the White House economic team…. and that’s how Jennifer Psaki received the briefing material last Monday.
The real dynamic inside the economy has been hidden by federal spending, bailouts and payroll support. However, that spending has contributed to the inflation that is creating the need for federal subsidies. We are in a circular economic argument created by White House economic policy.
(Reuters) […] Economic growth slowed in January, with an Institute for Supply Management survey on Tuesday showing its measure of national factory activity falling to a 14-month low.
The economy grew at a 6.9% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, helping to boost overall growth in 2021 to 5.7%, the strongest performance since 1984. Growth estimates for the first quarter are mostly below a 2.0% rate.
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey published in mid-January, 8.8 million people reported not being at work because of coronavirus-related reasons between Dec. 29 and Jan. 10. This has left some economists bracing for a decline on Friday in the nonfarm payrolls count for January.
According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 150,000 jobs last month. Estimates range from a decrease of 400,000 to an increase of 385,000. The economy created 199,000 jobs in December, the fewest in a year.
The White House has been frantically trying to prepare the nation for a disappointing payrolls number, with several officials offering a preview of the report. (read more)
The employment situation has absolutely nothing to do with Omicron. However, Omicron provides a plausible cover story so long as people believe the propaganda pushed by financial media trying to protect the white house.
The economy doesn’t go from 6.9% growth in December to ZERO growth a few days later without something substantive happening in the background. My guess is the inventory buildup, cited by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in December, was the result of a massive drop in demand that took place in the three previous months.
The inventory and inflation driven inventory evaluation that helped inflate the metric of the Gross Domestic Product, was not the result of the supply chain coming back to normal. I will bet a donut the inventory buildup was specifically because demand collapsed.
My view of that situation is supported by the historic drop in productivity that was noted in the last half of 2021. The federal spending, and the federal subsidies for businesses and corporations to retain employees, ran past the period where payrolls would have naturally contracted due to the drop in demand.
If I am correct, the employment situation was artificially influenced, because interventionist COVID spending/bailouts allowed payrolls to be covered, and employees to remain on the payroll register, during a time when they should have been dropped if natural sales/profits were responsible for filling the payroll accounts of companies. This would explain the macro drop in productivity while macro employment was retained.
The natural outcome of that viewpoint is…. When the federal deposits into the private sector payroll accounts dry up, employers eventually drop employees.
That rather dramatic scenario is enough to trigger the BLS to freak out when they did the payroll polling.
Just a hunch… We’ll find out on Friday.
ADP Payroll infographic 1
We are in the inflation hurricane right now.
The good news is… if domestic demand continues naturally contracting, due to unsustainable inflation, eventually prices will have to stabilize. It seems counterintuitive, but a strong cash position is valuable despite inflation right now.
Inflation will continue hitting wages hard, but there is light at the end of the tunnel. If you have prepared to ride out this storm of inflation, we should see things start to turn around in about six months. Unfortunately, between now and then, there will be significant job losses as inventories continue to build and sales get stagnant.
Prices on fast turn consumable goods like food, fuel, energy etc. will never return to their pre-inflationary price. The high prices on highly consumable products are here to stay and will never decline. Unfortunately, there are several indicators that those prices will go even higher throughout the next six months until they plateau mid-summer.
However, on the backside of this inflationary hurricane, the prices on long-term durable goods will start dropping sooner as consumer demand continues to focus on prioritization of spending and employment becomes more tenuous.
Very sad. Here were some predictions about this from 2020 and beyond:
The Brandon Variant Strikes.
Otherwise known as the Marx Variant.
Crypto-Obama Variant…
4 Economic downturn from lockdowns could kill millions of children, UN
Same for covid vaccs. Untold genocide in progress
It’s diabolical what this wrecking crew have done to small businesses and families, the backbone of a stable nation, griever. Munchausen by proxy economically speaking. Done by economic illiterates and Keynesians over the decades. Add in the satanic evils that are corporatism, globalism and medical fascism…and here we are.
How to turn this around? I have no idea, nor does anyone else apparently. The disingenuous Psaki statement saying the upcoming disastrous payrolls report on Friday is because people are sick…sickness never figures into those reports…simply shows us the bad seeds in control of this economic abortion have no business near any levers of power. They are incompetent, stupid and ignorant… a deadly combination for the health of our nation.
We are now all on a ventilator and the prognosis doesn’t look good.
Yes, absolutely criminal, evil, and sick, and all by design.
How to turn it around? That is what I am desperately trying to figure out, Betsy. The odds are against us and the situation is grim. Quite the mess they’ve left us with.
Betsy and I are open to ideas to anyone reading this…
Stop the mandates, get government out of the way and America will work it out one citizen at a time.
Mouse: Well said and simple, except for the government part. 🙂
I agree, Mouse. We have to kill the mandates, reduce the size and expense of the Federal Gov’t, return power to the states where it belongs, and that’s going to take Article V; it’s the only non-violent option we have left – literally.
And drill baby drill.
That’s a start. But the roadmap is visible for those that have no qualm at destroying the country for their own personal gain. And as Sundance has detailed, the 4th branch is not likely to stand down easily, if at all.
The solutions to our problems are legion, but the people who have stolen our country can never allow us to regain control. Things will get much worse before they can get better. All we can do is prepare to ride out whatever is coming. We’ve been screaming about the stolen election for over a year, and we’re called terrorists. This is WW III, but most refuse to see it. The entire Earth is embroiled in this war. Prepare.
And that is not overstated (ie., all true).
Boy, are we!! No one seems to be on our side anywhere else…or at least where it counts. Until.someone shows up, we’ll all be hunkering down for the ferocious storms incoming.
As my wife asked me once… “How do you get rid of these people?”
I thought for a couple of seconds.. “Well, historically in Europe, we have a war of some sort.”
The more I think about it, the more I see a Civil War of sorts in the near future. I actually don’t think it will come to battle though, I think a bunch of states will simply declare enough is enough and there will be some sort of a Convention of States backed by the threat of the National Guards and Sheriffs.
That’s the one thing that is missing in Canada and Oz right now. They don’t have the strong federalist make up that creates states like Texas and Florida, able to counterbalance Calimexistan and New York.
I have been posting recently, about how whats happening in Canada shows us the way forward.
The “adults in the room”, people who have absolutely NO desire to “lead” (making them the ONLY ones qualified to actually do so) need to, and ARE “stepping forward” to get us out of this mess.
PDJT was “ahead of the curve”; when you read what he has said about his decision to enter politics.
MANY are now echoing his words and deeds; remember the “Retired Truck Driver” who unseated an incumbent, spent a couple hundred $ on his campaign?
VIEW the initial statement by KariLake, announcing that she was leaving broadcasting career.
And finally, WATCH the full 40 minutes of the press conference “from an undisclosed location” of the leaders of the CanadianTruck convoy, contrasted both wit JTS press conference, and videos of Canadas parliament, to me its clear.
The Truckers are “the adults in the room”, they have NO desire to be “in charge” (main qualification to BE “in charge) and,…..
They ARE in charge; they mentioned, in passing that O’toole, the leader of the Conservatives needs to go, and within 24 hours the conservative caucus is giving him the boot.
Frankly, the Trucker leaders make it clear his temporary replacement isn’t much better, and a shakeup of the conservative party needs to happen.
Put this in perspective; imagine a US convoy, and a call to remove McConnell and McCarthy from their leadership positions is responded to w/in 24 hours!
The truckers are basically ignoring JT, because he is now irrelevant, and will inevitablt be ousted; they are already focused ob WHAT is going to replace him.
Senators and Congressmen can’t be impeached or recalled, and primarying them is deliberately made difficult.
However,…they CAN be “forced to resign”. So far, this has only been done due to sex scandals, rarely for financial scandals.
WHY do we allow THEM to detirmine what justifies public condemnation forcing resignations?
We KNOW they are corrupt, its BLATANT.
We KNOW they are consistently pursueing policies that are NOT in America or Americans best interest.
WHY aren’t THOSE seen as legitimate grounds for such a mountain of public condemnation, that it demands they resign, like weiner texting pics?
WHY aren’t they having rotten eggs and veggies thrown at them, WHENEVER they show their face in public?
THEY profit from SEWING DIVISION. WE must finally step up, be the adults in the room, throw this miscreants OUT, and then sew UNITY to heal the division.
And, I believe it IS coming.
It’s coming alright..
I think the answer to your questions is that up to recently Americans have except for a criminal minority generally respected the law. Truly MASIVE and lawful civil disobedience might result in some resignations but probably not.
It’s going to take more than that and more than more “investigation” and black-holing of the crimes.. Going to be interesting.
“WHY do we allow THEM to determine what justifies public condemnation forcing resignations?
We KNOW they are corrupt, it’s BLATANT.
We KNOW they are consistently pursuing policies that are NOT in America or Americans best interest.”
Amen.
Politicians deserve to be run out of office and hounded until they resign, by simply repeating loudly and often a list of actions they took that went against voter’s demands or actions they did NOT take when the opportunity was in front of them to fix problems that voters demanded to be fixed.
-Such as voter integrity and election fraud by mail-in ballots, lack of voter ID requirements etc.
-Such as blatant criminality by DC officials that is ignored or excused by the corrupt DOJ.
-Such as blatant violation of basic human rights by military brass against military rank and file in forcing them to get jabbed with dangerous unproven toxins being criminally misrepresented as a vaccine.
-Such as doing NOTHING about the nationwide attack on law and order by communist local government officials who are reducing law enforcement and increasing pressure on remaining police to act as social workers.
-Such as passing laws to prevent the teaching of racially biased fallacious subject matter in publicly funded school classrooms such as CRT and “white privilege.”
-Such as stopping with hard and fast legislation the unmitigated free flow of unvetted illegal aliens into our nation, much less flying them across the country under the cover of night and limited access airports to undisclosed locations; most of whom then become full-time customers of the state and federal social welfare systems or worse, become criminal predators against legal US citizens.
Every politician in DC deserves to be forcefully ejected from office because they have knowingly allowed these problems to continue to worsen, unabated, while doing NOTHING substantive towards resolving them.
Oaths to the Constitution are so yesterday, GB. Dear Leader says that document is always evolving. But just in case, there are always work arounds, as you have very nicely pointed out in detail.
The solution is simple, but I am not ready to be rounded up yet. Just start on your block or in your community. Join into a support/action plan with responses to meet anticipated assaults on your freedoms. And Americans must support each other. You now know who is friend and who is foe.
We have to do what Iceland did
rid off f*cking banksters…… !!!!!!!
Re “How to turn this around? I have no idea, nor does anyone else apparently.”
I believe Donald Trump knows how to turn it around, including the high prices on consumable goods like food, fuel, energy etc.
The trick is to get him back in office so he CAN turn it around.
Unfortunately, Jesse, that doesn’t help now. This a big ship to turn around. If there is any hope of salvation, it needs to start now. We can’t wait 2 years in hopes he somehow manages to beat the odds while the deliberate destruction continues apace.
the big gorilla in the room is 30 trillion debt.getting close to 500 billion yearly payback, & interest rates set to go up this year.
Yes, tom. The Fed has certainly done a bang up job of seeing that their favoured groups were just fine from 2008 onward. Kept moving the goal posts on the “acceptable” rate of inflation whilst printing and printing and …
Congress’s talent for spending money which isn’t theirs is well known. Budgets not passed, debt limits ignored and then shoved upwards.
Together they’ve lost control of the horse and are now backed into the corner. And we are in that corner with them. The worst of all possible worlds.
Get our lives and economy back to normal, and reduce imports so we make stuff here.
It is happening and has been happening since Trump came down the escalator. It is the greatest sting-operation in the history of the World.
The People have to; Hear it, See it and Feel it. We are now entering the “Feel It” phase. Good things happening will speed-up but not without universal pain felt by all people.
Including the Dems’ voters. And yes, they ARE starting to feel it and are starting to speak up. No one will spared. To quote, “Where we go one, we go all”…right over the proverbial cliff.
Just take a look at what is happening in Canada with the truckers. Yes, if enough people get pissed off they can make changes for the better. All I know is if the Truckers do it in the USA like in Canada, I am going to join the convoy along with them.
that’s include 30% “normies “………
That’s key people gotta feel it… if what hear and see ain’t good then it sure can’t feel good.
We are fast moving into “this don’t feel good” stage.
PDJT did have that magic wand, after all.
No single person can consolidate all the power needed to break all the political, economic and military MONOPOLY interests that the WORLD POWERS hold and protect. Trump found out, even as POTUS, he could not successfully delegate to anyone else, be given honest opinions or obtain truthful reporting from subordinates. Even his aides and close associates were working against him from day one, until the rigged election. These problems will be solved, by either God or somebody with a bunch of thermo-nuclear weapons.
Although not a complete panacea getting our energy sector going again is where we need to start. That is the single most item that contributes to cost for every item from food to service companies, producer goods, transportation for individuals and moving goods. Lower those prices and eventually all prices can stabilize. It also takes some pressure off family budgets directly through lower utility and transportation costs.
In the end that will certainly help no doubt. But as long as the idiotic Cult of the Green still has a strangle hold on these government imbeciles, I’m not hopeful for that’s happening, patriot. I mean, we all know what would help restart the engines. It’s moving the Ass which has sat down in the mud and will not be moved.
History says a big bloody war will settle everything down, especially when insanity prevails! Brace for it!
It’s simply criminal
What worries me though, is that a lot of jobs will come back now that most Americans are ignoring the covid BS and Biden will get credit for it right before the mid terms. I want people to get good jobs so they and their families can be happy and successful but I also want to absolutely destroy the DNC in this next election.
If the feckless Republican Party was serious, they would be hammering this message, but they will no doubt talk about meaningless drivel.
Enough, it’s because the Republocrat Party or UniParty, are all in on this destruction. Who is standing up? We can count on 2 hands, MAYBE, and that’s it. Is anyone garnering support for any bills introduced to end this nonsense? That would be a big NOPE. Therefore, all of them traitors and all complicit in the destruction of the economy. It breaks my heart to think of all the small business owners who poured there hearts and souls, not to mention their life-savings, into businesses only to have them destroyed by these evil tyrants.
Yeah, I’m sure they are working on things like “immigration reform” again instead of planning to enforce the immigration laws that are already on the damn books. That’s the kind of moronic thing they always do. The worst part is that millions will be dumb enough to fall for it again and millions more will hold their noses and vote for the RINO scum because they’re not quite as bad as the leftist scum.
Nothing happens as fast as we think. Store shelves aren’t barren everywhere. Wage gains are taking the edge off of inflation. And employment is a lagging indicator of recession (2 consecutive quarters of GDP contraction). We’re not even at one quarter of GDP contraction yet, let alone two. So that’s June maybe. Based on past history of Obama/Biden “economics”, they will overcompensate in a way that drags out the recession’s effects. If the Fed overcorrects and crashes stocks and housing markets, things will get a lot worse.
But all of that would take months and months to play out.
There’s a reason the Government Party is running screaming from COVID right now. It makes for a good excuse for bad policy choices “the covid excuse”, but outside of deep blue cities almost nobody talks about COVID stuff any more. Other than my thrice vaccinated coworkers who are all out this week.
With COVID.
Jobs for unvaxxed? Jury is still out on that.
They want to use Covid fear to force acceptance of mail-in ballots so they can cheat AGAIN this fall and hold on to Congress.
Destroy the DNC in the next election?
If the current fraudulent election systems and processes are not fully exposed, condemned, and replaced with un-riggable systems & processes, then we may never fix the problems of the entrenched totalitarian Corrupticrat Uniparty without using brute force.
“Unexpected”
No, not by anyone who has actually been paying attention!!
What we really need at this point is a decline of 300,000 government workers! That would be a drop in the bucket but at least a step in the right direction!
The other day Paski was asked about inflation. She shifted to used cars, something we do not have to deal with in our daily lives.
Do you think the millions of economic migrants coming across the border are in the market for new cars? Probably not, so it is likely that would put pressure on used car prices.
Illegal aliens need to be permanently deported, yesterday.
they are not here to work – they want freebies
All the more reason to evict them and their dependents.
Spawn.
Not really. Despite the freebies Brandon is offering, the vast majority coming in, yes STILL, are “economic migrants”.
They are coming here, because economic opportunity (JOBS, not welfare) is far better than their home countries.
So, if Brandon sufficiently trashes the economy, so a dentist in Mexico isn’t better off getting $12/hr, to wear a costume and wave a sign on a streetcorner here, thats ONE way to stop the economic migration.
The other is to deny business licences to anyone employing illegals.
The WAYs to deincentivise illegal migration have always been there, are employed by many other countries, it has simply been the desire of the Political elites to INCENTIVISE, rather than de-incentivise illegal migration.
There is NO challenge, no difficulty in ejecting illegal immigrants; de-incentivise, and they will go.
We need to do the same thing to the Globalist; de-incentivise them to occupying the “halls of power”, THAT is the challenge.
You would have better luck abolishing the Federal Reserve then kicking out all of the globalists making all of those policies possible.
The earth could open up and swallow all of DC, which would not only improve the financial outlook significantly, but would make the world a much better place
I know someone who can make this happen.
Let us pray.
He needs to have the Earth swallow up everything from DC down through Arlington & Quantico to Langley VA too.
I would settle for a repeat of the Tunguska event circa 1908, centered on DC.
it would certainly change landscape of- DC…..
Alynski them; both faces of the Uniparty play the “government shutdown” game, keeping open only “essential services”,..let them play their game, and then call.
Don’t reopen, at all!
Is that “too simplistic”?
And they expect us, who have lost jobs, homes, friends, etc, to feel sorry for the poor gov’t employees who (temporarily) get paid their extravagant pay and bennies, who never saw a day without a paycheck this whole time.
Sorry, not sorry. There’s NOTHING they do for me. Nothing.
does anyone know whether that might actually be happening?
There are reports of military quitting over the vax
if gummit demands vax then people will quit.
Then there are the reports of folks getting very ill – many insurance reports of increased payouts of policies
A treeper once upon a time gave us reports – I have not seen any numbers in a very long time
I don’t know the status of gummit contractors either
wondering….
“Lower your expectations.”
And have a margarita!
If they were any lower they’d be underground.
Economy began its freefall on January 20, 2021. It continues right up to this moment and will continue until President Trump returns to the White House on January 20, 2025.
“plateau mid-summer”
Ah, optimism.
What the heck does 8.8 million people being off due to covid have anything to do with unemployment? All those people were still getting paid and they still have their jobs after being off a week or so.
An astute person could use that falsehood against them and say people getting fired due to having COVID has to stop. Make them live by their own lies.
Nothing. It’s illegal in CA to fire someone bc of the SinoVirus. Prob’ly same in most of US.
The latest ‘Rona iteration, like the ones before it, is no more serious than a typical cold for 99% of everyone who got it.
No-one is fired or quits bc of a cold. Its bullsh*t.
The CDC suggests only five days off; there’s literally no impact to payrolls.
I agree… when someone is out sick they are absent, not unemployed, so they would be in an employee headcount. They may apply for temporary disability benefits (say they were off for multiple weeks), but they would not be filing for unemployment. Even if a business had an outbreak and closed for a couple of weeks (like bank branches and restaurants in my area) these are still employed people.
And yes, businesses slowing or closing and needing less staff is a big part of this (sadly). But, I’ve got to think the vaxx mandates kicking in are a factor as well. People being out of work (quit or fired) for saying no to shots – that would certainly lower employee headcounts.
I’m also wondering if they are working up a lower-than-reality number to publish this week, which will quietly be revised downward in the future… so they can try another round of “It’s better than we thought it would be… so that’s good!”
If you think this is bad, just wait until these figures are quietly revised downwards in a few weeks. That’s how it is when Democrats are in the White House.
We are now entering an inflammatory recession. The worst of all possible worlds. Welcome back, Carter! –FJB
I noted some differences, mainly marked social tension these days, a fragmented job market, and oddly historically low debt and savings interest rates, particularly low mortgage rates, comparing to my time under Carter.
I remember the latter because I bought my first house around the time Reagan was elected and inflation was still in full swing and 30 year mortgage rates were in the high teens.
I actually paid my own way through college during Jimmy’s administration, working a summer job as a carpenter. Paid tuition and books and didn’t have to work during the semesters.
Today, whoa. IDK, maybe I’m cynical from decades of life experience but damn.
Shocked, stunned, surprised. They haven’t a clue and they think we can’t see it.
Yep, they think that if they ACT shocked, stunned and surprised, we won’t blame them for causing it to happen.
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” ~ John Kenneth Galbraith
2/3 of losses are from small and medium sized businesses. The Great Reset is making gains.
The CDC and FDA completely falsified the Coronavirus Death and Hospitalization numbers for two years by deceitfully including any person hospitalized WITH Coronavirus or any person who died WITH Coronavirus when they knew that Coronavirus had nothing to do with the persons hospitalization or death. There’s no reason to believe that the government isn’t going to report misleading employment and economic numbers, too!
It will be interesting to see how they try to blame Trump for this. You know they are working overtime to come up with some insane reason just like Obama was still blaming Bush at the end of his eight years.
Seems to fit in with the d33p stat3 goal of generating support for “guaranteed minimum income,” a pre-cursor to socialism. Apparently, a Republican introduced legislation recently to prevent COVID funds from being used for this.
Just lower your expectations for Biden’s job performance and your standard of living, and your stress levels will come down a bit.
81 million “votes,” or ballots, for this outcome. If there are any White Hats left in the US government, wake the hell up before the Republic is lost forever.
All because of a LARP.
You said it Sundance. Downward spiral is all that is pretty much left. And as you say, prepare accordingly.
The breaking point maybe 2024, if Biden is reelected, then civil unrest that America has not seen in 180 plus years. 2022, will be an indication of how corrupt the election processes really is, people will be total feed-up by then?
If there is no big change in congress by election day 2022???
If they were smart they’d rig the system to throw a bone to the GOP side of the Uniparty to ‘legitimize’ the election process and further shout down the MAGA claims of election fraud. We’ll see.
I really see the possibility if not liklihood that events will overwhelm or overtake politics, and 2022 and 2024 will reflect, rather than shape our future.
If the majority of Americans realise the Politicians in DC are irrelevant, guess what.
They become irrelevant!
“Suppose they gave a mandate, and nobody CARED!”
Suppose they called each other “rascist”, and the people simply IGNORED them, and went about there lives?
They have NO “Power” its the ultimate “red-pill”; its only the ILLUSION of power.
I ran errands this past weekend, and EVERY SINGLE BUSINESS, bar none, had a “hiring” sign on the door. I talked to the gal in the deli, which has cut their hours of service in half. She said that people quit over mandates, and no one is applying until lifted. Biden’s job-killing policies are bankrupting this country.
Working as planned by the Marxists
When I rolled through town shortly before 9pm last weekend I noted no help wanted signs, a lot more papered over windows and, oddly, the local mom and pop grocery store, one of two stores in town, was already closed and the whole parking lot was empty, dollar store, hardware store, everything empty.
In fact the whole main street was like a ghost town and I rolled through all the lights on the main highway. Only place obviously open was the fuel station. Diesel was 3.84/gal cash. No customers. Weird. Very unusual in a popular beach destination for outdoors people and tourists. Even the dive motel along the highway that has nine rooms and is forever booked up way in advance had the ‘vacancy’ sign, on a Saturday night. Wow.
Anyway, I’m sure there are jobs somewhere but I didn’t see much of any activity, at all. One snapshot in time. In rural Oregon we always opine if one can make it through winter, that’s the canary. Plenty of people don’t.
The bi-sh*t admin lied about near 7% GDP for a quick headline and talking points.
7%!!! That’s post-WW2 growth. Impossible without bustling econ activity going on all around you, which obviously isn’t happening. It’s completely fabricated.
Reality bites them in the ass 3 days later. As always. MSM pretends it was totally unexpected and could never have been foreseen, and calls you racist for noticing.
Not more complicated than that.
THIS.
But Jeff Zucker … But Whoopi … But, but …
The effects of a consumer purchasing slowdown are everywhere. Even look at automobiles for sale as an example. Look at the marketing time. How long these vehicles have been advertised. Some of them for months. Meanwhile the construction industry has been getting battered with cost of material overruns. 200 300%. Increases on construction materials is unsustainable. These costs and home buying as a whole has been kept afloat by the FED keeping interest rates artificially low. Now in March the FED is talking about raising interest rates to curb inflation. That means a further slow down. This is not magic nor the supernatural. This is a man-made problem. And the men who are doing it are absolute clown idiots.
New Ford economy pick-up, about $20k, has 7-8 month back-log and Ford stopped taking new orders.
No parts / computer chips. 90% made in china.
that is FUNNY since the Taiwanese own 48% of the ENTIRE world’s chip market through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (TSMC) and other Republic of China chip giants
Reality has a way of biting the oblivious on the slow trailing behind, aka government bureaucrats.
Killing off the middle class.
As fast as they can.
For what it’s worth- One of my small businesses is in the retail sector and includes a brick and mortar space on Main Street that I rent as well as two online shops where I sell mostly vintage and handmade goods.
I did well all through the scamdemic including during the lockdowns. My Main St. location never really closed because the owner carried merchandise that was considered necessities. The online stores did better than ever especially during the 2020-2021. Everything I sell is either a gift or collectible, nothing anyone really needs.
Based on my conversations with fellow merchants, we all got slammed just before Christmas when sales came to almost a dead stop. Our holiday season ended the first week of December and hasn’t picked up since.
Even the tourists are not buying like they used to- in fact, even during the holidays Main St. was dead when usually it’s filled with shoppers.
People are holding on to their money for sure. They need to pay the mortgage, rent, taxes, heat, food, etc.
I have a question- if the Bidenistas set out to destroy our Country, tell me one thing that they would do differently than what they’ve been doing since they stole the election?
There is no good news going to come from this Junta/ Administration. They are barely even pretending anymore. Spokes-weasel Nurse Ratchett Pissaki is just perfect at her job. She is so smug and condescending, she has all the answers.
She is definitely one of the players who is running things. Her, Dr. Jill and a bunch of others that we can only guess at.
We have to hold the line as best we can until our President Trump returns to lead us out of this mess.
I see the phony conservatives and wannabe Never Trumpers seeding the conversation with their phony caring articles like this one:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/02/why_donald_trump_should_not_be_the_republican_nominee.html
Screw them all. There is only one real leader on the field and that is Donald J. Trump. I am more convinced of that every day that goes by.
Well said
Politicians in general are Performance Artists! (with a few exceptions, we hope!) – they read from someone else’s script, emote as directed, then walk off-stage.
That’s why they have no continuity, sense of shame, standards, and seemingly, no soul as well!
We must fight the spiritual forces behind them and help everyone who supports our God, country and cause!
United we stand! Oblivious, we fall!
We the People are America!
Seneca: “spokes-weasel Nurse Ratchett Pissaki…” That’s good material. I’d hold on the that one.
The reason they are destroying us is because the CCP is in a proxy war against America. Our own government is their proxy.
This.
I’m reading Red Handed. Even though most of it you already know, we are completely infiltrated by China.
Hm…….I think they (The CCP) are winning.
i really tried to think of what Biden could have done differently to hurt America more.
it was confirming, seeing it was hard to find anything.
the only thing i could come up with, was the Texas Grid. they failed killing it last February 2021.
We are surrounded by magical thinkers, Seneca.
The near-death of Christianity does not produce people who believe nothing, as Chesterton maybe said. It produces savages, superstitious savages who believe anything.
Global warming, transgenderism, the power of facemasks to stop viruses. They will believe anything.
If you saw the unhinged comments by Trudeau about the truck drivers you saw insanity worthy of the Salem Witch Trials. Justin the Black in Face can make himself believe anything.
Science is, at best, a magical incantation to hold off the witches.
The Hegelian delusion that western society only moves in one direction bears hard for the rocks of the fascism that is clearly all around us.
Excellent!
I read the article, which only strengthened my resolve, in the opposite position.
I DO firmly believe, however that 2020 was a blessing, in many ways.
When PDJT returns to the Oval in 2024, he needs an ARMY of officeholders, at all levels from School board to Congress, Governors and Legislatures, all committed to AmericaFirst, and driving Rinos to extinction.
PDJT can’t do it alone, he needs our help.
Agree. President Trump will need all the help he can get – all new people who will be 100% LOYAL to him. No more Mike Pence or any of that ilk.
I have been trying to become a member of my local town GOP committee so that I can help with the upcoming elections. The chairman of the party is worse than a RINO and does not want MAGA people on “his” committee.
In years past when I was on the committee I was one of the best worker bees. I got a lot done, got people elected, worked hard for good people.
Then the leadership changed and all the good people left. Now we are trying to take it back but it’s not so easy. I’m sure we’re not the only ones at street level who are experiencing this.
Perfect with a backdrop of $ 30 trillion of debt excluding off balance sheet obligations like Medicare etc. The FED will be printing another $ 9 trillion shortly. The decades long talk about kicking the can down the road will come to an end in the road.
0bama akbar!
ROTFLOL
too funny yet sad Catturd
There is no inflation, whatever that means. There is no crime and no soft on crime Dems…..Americans who believe there is crime and soft on crime Dem officials live in an alternate reality. …..Signed, Jen Piss Hockey, proud Marxist Propagandist
No! According to Democrats, there IS crime, but it’s all caused by Trump-supporting Republicans!
Sundance said: “The economy doesn’t go from 6.9% growth in December to ZERO growth a few days later without something substantive happening in the background. My guess is the inventory buildup ….”
But Sundance, Dec GDP wasn’t really 6.9%, was it?
In your article on ports the other day, you showed that the imports report (goods unloaded at ports) was curiously delayed past the calendar-month ending date
… and speculated this was deliberate so that imports wouldn’t lower the GDP number coming out the same day (thereabouts)
So you portrayed the GDP stat as artificially inflated, likely deliberately
So the “economy” didn’t grind to a halt from 6.9% …. it was never at 6.9%
Their subterfuge is so convoluted and blatant that the one gummint hand can’t keep track of the other gummint’s hand creating fraudulent statistics … and then they claim to be “surprised”
[“… there’s a strong likelihood the Bureau of Labor and Statistics have been surprised by their January employment polling result”]
So I understand your pointing at “the inventory buildup” … but a good part of the “grind to a halt” is just fudged statistics, no?
The Bloom Is off The Ruse, White House Port Manipulation Hiding Economic and Supply Chain Issues
About the only thing that can slow or stop the hyperinflation of the next 6 months is oil going back down to 50 dollar a barrel but we know that is never going to happen with the cheater/imposter in the White House.
People didn’t realize it then and not enough realize it now. The United States was attacked by a “Bioweapon” by both foreign and domestic enemies. The United States Constitutional government was replaced by a Communist/Fascist/Totalitarian Dictatorship of Power and Control.
We are not going to get our Freedom and Liberty back without a fight. The Canadians are ahead of the rest of the World in this regard. Their win will be the United States win. Their win will be the Worlds win.
Disparaging Biden is just diversion tabloid entertainment. People need to get serious with the real issue and it is not Biden/Harris.
I agree with you. It was a hostile takeover. Our government is illegitimate.
whats stopping them from releasing another bioweapon.
my guess – this is why the national security PDJT team and PDJT team are tip toeing on this topic.
this movie……..14 months is way,way…too looooong……
I’m old enough to remember the 1970s and Jimmy Carter’s stagflation.
The baby boom generation was maturing and desperate for jobs. But young adults can stay home a little longer.
And being young is always a compensation for most anything, except the draft.
The baby boom generation is now at the tail end of the Carter-Biden continuum of woebegone liberalism.
Old people in America will now be dependent on the welfare state. As planned. They will curse big government while clinging to the skirt tails of mother welfare.
Don’t take early retirement unless you are richer than a Biden. Hanging on to the welfare state is like hanging onto a truck tire in a flood. Always precarious, never pleasant.
Speaking of rich, if you have a marketable trade, a butcher, a baker, a candlestick-maker, you are now better off than most of America’s college graduates. The return to 19th century values comes thundering down on the Democrats who thought they wanted it. Ha!
Depression Era skills.
Is this why Nitwit Tehran Nan-Xi hasn’t invited Delusional Joe to his 1st FAKR & FRAUDULENT SotU yet? So much gloom and doom it is hard to bury it all.
Let them eat cake!
THIS Is where we were before the DIMs and their RINO friends tanked our MAGA economy.
Loss of 301,000 when ADP is notorious for being out of sync. Wait till we see the Establishment vs Household data Friday. It is skewed towards growth in self-employed likely due to vaccine mandates forcing individuals away from traditional firms reporting weekly and into running their own businesses. The trend in the reports supports such thinking.
A bike rider tends to fall forward, going over the handlebars, when some jerk runs a broom handle through the front spokes.
The economy is the bike rider. The government is the jerk. Covid mandates are the broom handle.
nice analogy, bill
or is it a metaphor?
I didn’t pay enough attention in English class
Metaphor, and a good one.
Need the words ‘like’ or ‘as’ for an analogy.
Perfect.
The Biden gang isn’t going to stop until they have completely ruined the US economy.
Why would you think they are supposed to stop before reaching their goal?
Mandatory Minimum Wage increases kicked in around Jan 1st. Small businesses in my area have begun laying off some employees or not hiring additional staff. Methinks this also factors into things….
So when does FJB start pushing another stimulus check to try and get people to buy up these idle inventories building up? Probably a month or two before election day.
Unemployment and pain …….. it’s what Democrats deliver.
It is very simple to me. When you have to pay outrageous amounts of money for gas, home heating fuel and food, that does not leave you any money to purchase anything else. A mom who does the grocery shopping knows this better than any of these half educated dumbasses we have in Government.
Colleges are a scam. Colleges are not about “education”. Colleges are about political “indoctrination”. Parents are paying to have their children come out of college as dumb and stupid as a pile of rocks…..that is a communist pile of rocks.
Colleges had a paradigm about 30 years ago moving from a facility for education to an ideological business model….most now employ MORE administrators than professors
What is the effect of such a massive contraction in demand, specifically on the “Just In Time” (JIT) aspect of the supply chains?
JIT DEPENDS on AI (Artificial Idiocy) in which computers monitor demand, and constantly “tweek” production of raw materials, sub-components, packaging materials, etc in order to get maximum efficiency, at the cost of redundancy.
Supply shortages is ONE way JIT can be thrown off; look at all the new cars sitting, awaiting computer chips, and the astronomical prices for used cars, as a result.
But, a sudden increase or decrease in DEMAND can also confound the AI systems that actually “manage” the supply chain.
The TP “crises” in the early stages of Covidpanic, illustrate how the computers were totally flumoxed by a sudden increase in demand.
Months after stores had set limits on TP purchases, supply issues continued.
A sudden DROP in demand, such as Sundance is writing about, can be equally confounding to AI control systems.
AI uses PAST performance, to predict future performance. This works well at subtle adjustments, to keep JIT systems running at peak efficiency and thereby maximising profit and keeping prices low, and therefore competitive.
However, such programming lacks the human ability to adapt and adjust to sudden, major shifts up or down
And, the reason they went to AI systems is because these systems are both monitoring thousands of inputs of data, and then making thousands of decisions.
Put simply, like a run-away nuclear reactor thats operated by computer, its simply not possible to intervene and establish human control over the system.
We have a “Cascade of critical errors”, where one small problem, causes multiple downstream problems, each of which causes multiple additional problems.
“Open the pod bay door, Hal!”
“No can do, Dave!”
I’m afraid I do not share Sundances optimism, that this will all stabilise in 6 months or so, as logic, rather than hope, leads me to believe it COULD last much longer, and cut much deeper than that.
If payroll is decreasing, what is the cause?
Whats the percentage of each category?
key point to see is – IT DOESNT MATTER. they did everything PERFECT to get a 6.8% GDP to run on the HEADLINES.
A washout on the horizon?
FB down 20% after hours
Others down big today, including after hours:
$SNAP down 25%
$SPOT down 22%
$PYPL down 27%
$PINS down 20%
$TWTR down 15%
Overloved, overowned and overhyped names of the decade will implode and take everything with them
Consumer staples have held up so far but in the final leg down, they will also decline (although less than the indices).
The economy will decelerate considerably in H1 ’22. If a company’s revenues are not truly recurring, it’ll be vulnerable over the following weeks.
The only true ‘safe haven’ is US$ cash
if we had a Public Relations Firm worth a damn – they could be saying (truth or not! the implication is what they do to us) THAT it looks like a massive number of people were terminated for not meeting an unconstitutional vaccine mandate.
then just group up everyone fired from March 2021 to NOW in a class action
6 months?…Good grief, I’m prepared for a dirty bomb in Miami or Tampa and life in the YeeHaw bunker for 10,000 years.
Quick…name that movie you should be thinking about. (Hint: Christopher Walken)
This is going to get very messy. I’m doing my best to be prepared
Of course it is going to be messy. Only the dumb and stupid are not preparing.
People have posted about the record US debt.
What people are not discussing is how much of that debt is short term and will need re-financing. At the magnitudes of debt now on the books, even a slight rate hike in interest rates would mean most of government spending will be for nothing but debt service. And of course, it can (and has elsewhere) exceeded the governments ability to spend.
So that means they can’t raise rates and the left never stops spending which means printing more dollars. The true believer faction of the left will never admit supply and demand is real or should have any part in government policy. It will be interesting to see if the oligarch/crime faction will try to oppose them. This is why the left in other countries always has so many different political parties.
The government will want to spend and the FED print. That’s going to be something with the debt and inflation levels. They have sucked the well dry, they’ll be coming after money wherever they can find it.
If you believe that 80 Million U.S. Citizens Voted to Remove The Brightest Minds in Business,
and replace them with the Dumbest SOB’s in OUR HISTORY…
Then YOu’rE a REalLy dUMB ASS Numbskull.
If this continues there will be only 6 “Banks”, 6 Cable “News”, and 6 “Radio Stations”.
Sleep tight America.
There are only two ways out of the massive inflationary spiral: a massive hike in interest rates or a massive recession. We may actually wind up getting both.
Kind of the same thing. The hike in interest rates necessary to slow spending (inflation), intentionally brakes the economy. Hence the recession that follows. Necessary medicine after we have printed this much money unfortunately.
True and also consider how much more the government will have to spend to cover the interest on the debt – it’s mostly short term and is constantly rolled over. I’m not an economist but the $420 billion spent annually at near 0% interest to service the debt will easily become the largest budgetary item, dwarfing SS, Medicare, or Defense with just a moderate increase in interest rates – not the shock needed to beat down inflation.
In my mind it’s a death spiral for the Fed/Treasury- raising interest rates will cause increased monetization of the debt aka printing money which causes inflation… and the cycle repeats.
As the great Lady Thatcher said socialism works until you run out of other peoples money…
Thanks go to PedoJoe46.