Things that seem disconnected but aren’t. The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins show signs of vulnerability. This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.
In the previous October, November and December warnings we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window. Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up and the larger public is starting to notice. [NOTE: We nailed the timeline almost to the week]
Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area. Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.
Initial food instability signs in the supply chain. Things to look for:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).
And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.
(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).
(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.
(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.
(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.
(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.
(8) Absence of large container products
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
(10) Big brand shortage.
(11) Shortage of wet pet foods
(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.
These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
At first, each retail operation will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
♦ BACKGROUND – Do you remember, the dairy farmers in 2020 dumping their milk because the commercial side of milk demand (schools, restaurants, bag milk purchasers) was forcibly locked down? Plastic jugs were in short supply, and the processing side of the equation has a limited amount of operational capacity.
Potato farmers and fresh food suppliers were also told to dump, blade or plough-over their crops due to lack of commercial side demand. These issues have longer term consequences than many would understand. These are fresh crops, replenishment crops, which require time before harvest and production.
The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality. As Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted in 2020, “There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products.”
Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February 2020: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.
This bulk food storage is how the total U.S. consumer food supply ensures consistent availability even with weather impacts. As a nation, we essentially stay one harvest ahead of demand by storing it and smoothing out any peak/valley shortfalls. There are a total of 175,642 commercial facilities involved in this supply chain across the country
The stored food supply is the originating resource for food manufacturers who process the ingredients into a variety of branded food products and distribute to your local supermarket. That bulk stored food, and the subsequent supply chain, is entirely separate from the fresh food supply chain used by restaurants, hotels, cafeterias etc.
Look carefully at the graphic. See the fork in the supply chain that separates “food at home (40%)” from “food away from home (60%)”?
Food ‘outside the home’ includes restaurants, fast food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more. Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 60 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.
The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain. Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets. As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort, the ‘food away from home’ sector was reduced by 75% of daily food delivery operations. However, people still needed to eat. That meant retail food outlets, grocers, saw sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.
Covid regulations destroyed this complex supply chain in 2020. It takes time to recover because the replenishment is based on harvest cycles. This stuff must be grown.
When the food at home sector was forced to take on the majority of food delivery, they immediately hit processing constraints. The processing side of the supply chain to funnel food into suppliers for the grocery store has “x” amount of capacity. That system cannot (not feasible) and did not expand to meet the 20 to 50% increase in demand.
Think about potatoes. A potato farmer sells into one of the two paths “food at home” (retail stores, or a processing supplier) or “food away from home” (commercial food or commercial food processors). Other than bulk raw potatoes, the harvest goes into: (1) processing or (2) storage.
(1a) processing for retail sales (40%), ex. Ore Ida frozen potatoes, canning, or any of the other thousand retail products that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
(1b) processing for commercial sales (60%), ex. McDonalds french fries, or any of the thousand restaurant, lunchroom and cafeteria needs that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
♦ Processing – When 1b was shut down in 2020, 1a quickly reached maximum retail processing capacity. Massive multi-million machines and food processing systems have a capacity. The supplies they use also have a capacity: plastic bags, cardboard, trays, bowls, etc. The 1a processing system can only generate “X” amount of retail product at maximum capacity.
The remaining 1b commercial product was shut down. A massive percentage of 1b (commercial) potatoes have nowhere to go, except waste.
♦ Storage – Each processor in 1a stores product (deep cold or frozen storage) for 365-day processing and distribution. Those storage facilities have a limited amount of capacity. The 1b customers need fresh product for the majority of their outlets. Ergo storing for 1b customers who might eventually be allowed to open later only works for a short period of time. The fresh potato sales missed by 1b outlets = the 1b discard by potato farmers.
When you restart 1b suddenly the 1b short-term (fresh) storage product is quickly depleted. Refilling that 2020 storage is dependent on a new 2021 harvest, which simultaneously has a greater immediate demand because the supply chain on the processing side was boxcar’d (over capacity) and then reset to a higher capacity playing catchup.
The amount missing from 2021 storage, because it was used instead of saved, is essentially equal to the amount that was wasted in 2020.
Now you end 2021 will less reserves because storage is depleted, because a greater percentage of the current harvest was immediately used. You enter into the beginning of 2022 (winter) in a race to try and spread out the stored potatoes as you cross your fingers and race against the clock for the next harvest before running out.
You probably noticed – but attached to this issue is yet another motive to keep people (employees) away from large industrial cafeterias and even students from school lunchrooms. The total food supply chain needs time, and harvests, to catch up.
In the example above you can replace *potato* with just about any row crop or retail/commercial food commodity like milk.
The reason I list the shortage of potatoes as the #1 precursor is because every food outlet sells a potato in some form. Every supermarket and every single restaurant (fancy, sit down or fast food) sells some form of potato. Potatoes are demanded by every single food outlet; therefore, a shortage of potatoes is the first noticeable issue.
The 2020 demand disruption problem now becomes a 2021/2022 supply chain problem on both the fresh and processing side (depleted inventories), with each vector now competing for the same raw material: wheat, soybeans, grains, beans and stored row crops.
Making matters worse, the protein suppliers also need grain as feed for cattle, pigs, cows, chickens, etc.
[Note: who gets the short straw? The pet food manufacturers]
That’s the nub of the background supply chain issue in the food sector. Additionally, recovery is not a single-issue problem.
The recovery price and shortages relate to everything from current oil and gas prices to diesel engine oil prices, to fertilizer and weed killer costs, to plastic costs and petroleum packing shortages (Styrofoam especially), to cardboard and sustainable packaging costs, to energy costs and transportation/delivery costs. All along this complex supply chain there’s also workers and higher payroll costs.
Thus, we get the double-edged sword of higher prices (inflation) and simultaneous shortages.
Here’s what you can do to offset grocery store shortages (while possible):
(1) Buy the generic or store brand equivalent (sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(2) Purchase the organic version (another sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(3) Purchase the powered/dehydrated version (potatoes, milk, etc) and experiment (jazz it up).
Each retail operation, or chain of stores, will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
This is where field to fork supplier relationships can make a big difference. However, every outlet regardless of their operational excellence, is going to have significant shortages in their inventory. It’s an unavoidable outcome of the previous chaos.
On average the retail shortages will last for about as long as one full harvest schedule (4 to 6 months) depending on the commodity. By September of 2022 the various sector should be relatively recovered.
However, government intervention could make the issues worse, or the recovery time take longer, depending on how they respond when people get seriously stressed in a few weeks. The densely populated urban areas are going to be making a lot of noise and demanding the government fix the crisis.
Final note on INFLATION – The short-term prices will go up again, another 10, 20 up to 50% should be expected depending on the item. Those prices will eventually level off, but it’s doubtful they will be able to come back down until supply and demand find some equilibrium again, if ever. Right now, predicting future retail prices is too far off to even fathom.
I hope this outline provides you with information to help you make decisions for your family.
kitty litter was almost sold out in all of the stores in SW Washington State. I still received what I needed from Chewy at this time. All stores in my area for miles around have some empty shelves.
I found the same thing with canned cat food, litter and even treats in short supply in stores but mostly available at Chewy. The canned cat food was out of stock for a few days but I was able to order ita few days after I first tried.
Wet cat food, particularly pate, is one thing I’ve noticed a supply issue with, same vendor, same product. Some is arriving today, three days late and over a week after ordering, quite a change from historically just a day or two. It’s not a particular product only but across a range of products.
I’m still using Amazon for anything that can dent or splatter because they use their own contractors/employees who seem to do well and USPS/UPS do a bang-up job of destroying packages. Recently I got one in a plastic bag. Why? They exploded the laundry detergent and put the soaked box in a bag and left it on the porch. Gotta love ’em. Only saving grace was half of it was still in the bottle and it was a pricing error, got it for a quarter of normal price so I guess I made out OK.
The fall of the US to Communism. This is from a person who lived under the Soviet mass murdering Bolsheviks
“Prepare in anyway you can:
Get out of the cities — warmer areas where you can grow your own food are the best, in my opinion.
If you are alone, gather some friends/relatives in a group and do it together — you will go back in time technologically, and living off the land is easier in a group.
Learn to grow anything that can nourish you and your family.
Learn to hunt.
Prepare alternative sources of water.
If you can rig your own electro grid, do it.
Learn a craft others may need and would be willing to pay for in goods.
Money will be useless for a while — have stuff you can trade.
Get guns and ammo to defend what you have — others WILL try to rob you of anything valuable.
The situation, most likely, will be different from state to state, and some will have it harder than the others — if you are in a blue state, leave.
It may not be obvious, but Russians actually had it easier and suffered less than Americans will — they were less spoiled, had less stuff, and their fall was less destructive because there wasn’t much there anyway.”
I am waiting for hunting to be off limits. They are now trying to scare hunters with the “hunters are giving the deer covid”.
There is no way they can prevent people from hunting. They do not have nearly enough people. The real danger is in overhunting. This occurred during the (First) Great Depression. Game just simply disappeared for a few years. Same with fishing. You are better off (if you can do it) to raise your own chickens or pigs for meat. Rabbits work as well and take little space.
You by Chehalis?
I saw the same thing at a store just north of Seattle – I do realize that our weather has been awful and all East-West passes have been closed since Wednesday so that is a partial explanation of empty shelves (which were on almost every aisle – not just pet food! But this is not a new trend – it has been happening since last summer at least.
I was in Mud Bay last week, getting the only kind of food that my spoiled kitty with a sensitive stomach can/will eat. I bought almost every can they had in the store and the clerk mentioned that they are hearing that more shortages are coming. He specifically said that the word is out that the actual components for making pet food (i.e. grains and meat by-products) are in short supply and that is what is driving the problem.
Start trying fish based pet foods before the crisis hits.
they are at 50% production IIRC from an earlier SD post…
It is all coming down and fast.
We bought a stash of dogfood at Tractor Supply here in West Boise area I live(15 miles out of the woke area of ID).
At first, the T-1 month call from SD, I was a bit skeptical but still started stocking up bigly.
Then last week…more of the same…but still not seeing the SHTF like in early 2020. only 5% masked last week.
Today, 65% masked and much angst. Had a lot of LGB fun with the fam at Costco today-see other post.
try the Purina BREEZE litter box – the pellets are like a hard porous ceramic bead. I rotate litter pans by washing beads, put out in sun. I get lots of extra mileage doing it this way, the cats seem happy. Purina says to dump them in a months. mine lasts about 6 months or more before my nose says they can’t be rinse off any more. And I extend the life of the pee pads by using newspaper on top – it makes the pad last long. I have 4 cats and 3 pans.
Queens,, have you seen where using the Breeze litter box system is used by setting the section with the slits and the side piece over a deeper bottom? Instead of using the breeze pellets a horse bedding pellet is used. The pellets absorb the liquid and puff up into sawdust. The sawdust is sifted through the slits and contained below in the deeper bottom piece.
A pee pad that is larger than what is used for the Breeze system is used in the bottom pan and the solids are picked out as they appear. Every so many days the pee pad is pulled together and tossed. A new pee pad is started.
I’ve been getting a 40 pound bag of Marth bedding pellets for $6.50 at Fleet farm and ordering the large pads on Amazon that fit my bottom section that extend over the top so it is easy to lift the used saw dust out. I put it all in another bag and toss it in the trash.
This was suggested to me by my vet when my kitty had some issues with her front paws.
Here is a video I found that walks through how to set up the system if you’re interested:
A touch of pool chlorine will remove the smell. Fed rid of the chlorine by placing in the sun after rinsing, it will break down. Like new.
Household bleach contains soaps, usually (tensides), so not so good.
Chewy is great.
Cats: food, treats, and litter
https://www.petmountain.com/category/cat/cat-food
https://www.petmountain.com/category/cat/cat-treats-catnip
https://www.petmountain.com/category/cat/cat-litter-center/cat-litter
Dogs: food, treats, toys
https://www.petmountain.com/category/dog/dog-food-toppers
https://www.petmountain.com/category/dog/dog-treats
https://www.petmountain.com/category/dog/dog-toys
Hope this helps some of you 🙂
Cheers.
Just ordered a discounted bag from Amazon for our blind cat.
She can’t read so it is no big deal.
Here is the link for more details.
https://slickdeals.net/f/15028144-amazon-com-meow-mix-tender-favorites-wet-cat-food-poultry-beef-variety-pack-2-75-ounce-cup-pack-of-48-pet-supplies-20-16
What is the saying ? Anarchy is only 3 missed meals away ?
Remember something like that.
9 meals from anarchy
9 meals from anarchy, 21 meals from cannibalism.
Remember to eat vegans first. Closest to grassfed you can come!
Haha
I plan to use antifa and blm for firewood.
Alex Jones will survive.
Better if they’re free range as well!
It is possible to go many days without eating. Classic Christian fast is 40 days.
After day 3, liver moves towards using the excess fat for energy.
Not suggesting this as a solution, but rather that reduction of a meal for more easily getting through this crisis will not usually cause great harm.
Very important to have multi vitamin & mineral supplements to ensure health. May be able to add vegetable protein powder as a substitute for meat.
I’ve been practicing intermittent fasting for almost 3 years. Somedays the only reason I have dinner is to be civil to my wife, I think I could go on a water fast for a few days. look up autophagy.
Lost weight, shaved my beard, my wife says I look younger, etc…
Oh, we got a bidet seat and 400+ rolls of TP. The best kind: The “red” super duper super soft Charmin. We use one roll per week so you figure.
Which bidet did you get?
I have a Kohler one that is connected to a toilet seat.
However, one needs an electric outlet close to the toilet.
It is awesome.
My daughter and hubby have 4 teenage sons. They installed a little hose ‘bidet’ on their toilet. The boys love it.
There was a ton of baby back ribs (3 racks per pack) at Sams the other day. No one wants em at $50ish (for now) when they were normally $22.
what happens to all the meat that doesn’t sell?
Usually gets reduced to sell.
We have 3 days to a week of “food security” here in Honolulu.
Then it’s the dog. With the last of the Heinz Ketchup.
I bet the dog has other plans… 🙂
What is going to happen in Honolulu? Have a kid there
“How much food supply does Hawaii have?
University studies have estimated there’s only an 11-day supply of food in the state at any given time.”
I think the govt keeps a large backup of spam for emergencies.
Well, they’ve certainly invested a lot in bull.
I am in Supply Chain – 1st – There are 1000’s of pounds of Potatoes rotting on Prince Edward Island because Brain Dead Biden will not allow Canadian trucks to move produce across the border. The chains including McDonald’s are bracing for a French Fry Shortage.
2nd – Citrus and grapes, Berries, etc from South America are rotting on container ships at LA – Long Beach – Importers are looking to other countries, especially Brazil to bring produce to East Coast Ports.
With Biden and Sec. of Transportation Butthead in charge, it will get way worse.
Famine are man made and government funded.
Is there money to be made driving to PEI and returning with a car load of taters?
we could start a convoy…Operation Tater…
Its because potatoes are white racist food.
They need to go to Florida ports
And Texas ❤
And Charleston, SC!
Yesterday eve. at local Walmart , hardly any bread left. Fresh vegetables area : No bananas, No tomatoes, the deli counter sign said they had machine problems so it was closed…yeah right. Meat area NO RED MEAT AT ALL.
Cat food was a bit better than other stores, that means there were 2 kinds of regular sized cans of cat food, NOT MANY .
Eggs almost gone. Here we go again. Some store folks from different stores have told us that the trucks come in but they do not have enough employees to put out the goods. They can’t find anyone that wants to work.
I cannot understand what the young people are living in $ that have quit jobs? How are they getting money to do anything if they’re not working? Besides the ones living off of parents. Of course if the jab is keeping them away, I understand that. It’s keeping tons of Drs. & nurses away too and with good reason.
How are they getting money to do anything if they’re not working?
Why, they just go sign up for all the federal and state freebie programs.
As long as the fed keeps printing money, as long as the communist, racist demoncrats
are charge, there’ be free everything for all those who got used to sitting
on their unproductive butts during the lockdown.
The rest of us will pay for it, one way or another.
Most are on welfare and whatnot, but some saved money and can go years without working.
You’re off track. Read today’s Gateway Pundit article. If they made 53 thousand or less, they’re getting paid more than that from the government to stay at home.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/bidens-3-9-unemployment-farce-workers-needed-government-paying-stay-home/
They don’t do anything. If they live with parents, they can eat at home and play video games online with friends all the time.
There is a significant part of the older Gen Z and younger millennial populations that don’t really go out and do anything. They don’t need much money.
My son refuses to not work. He gets up and does the job. Every day.
He’ll work until Biden bankrupts him, then he’ll do something different.
You raised him right!👍
I have two sons left at home. They both work fulltime and pay rent and they help with the house/yard. I’ll never complain about it.
Plenty of cat food at Tractor Supply.
Where?
If you know how to manage and save your money you can live for a long time with no job.
My local Aldi is advertising $16 an hour. For that, I would gladly work part time about 15 hours a week and pick up some extra money, except to be very, very honest…. I do not want to have to wear a mask all day at work, and around here the major employers only want vaccinated workers because they don’t know (yet) which way the wind is going to blow on the OSHA mandate.
I’m hoping to ride it out…. and who knows, but hopefully this madness passes and employers will once again want to take a chance on an unvaccinated worker.
It’s brutal.
I usually work at Kohls over the Christmas season. This year the only reason I didn’t apply was because I was not going to wear the useless mask they require employees to wear.
Its looking like us holding out on mask wearing/ shot taking is not putting enough pressure on them to stop the requirement for employment.
Seems they truly want sheep for workers?
They want slaves for workers. The multinationals do not want educated, independent thinkers who will question things. The young HR people do not want older experienced workers. Bureaucrats run everything, and they do not care about quality, the consumer, even profits. They care about their turf. Period. They want dumb workers and low level “managers” they can scapegoat for the poor outcomes from their bad decisions.
Living close to Amish Country in Ohio, I like to buy their bulk food. Noodles, spices, jams, cake mixes, just about everything. You can look up any of these below or search Amish Bulk Foods or just Bulk Foods. Usually get better prices this way too!
Dutch Country General Store. (IA) They sell bulk in different sizes and ship. (This store just came up in my search, so I threw it on here too)
Walnut Creek (Walnut Creek, Ohio) also sells bulk. You can order and they will ship. They also have just about everything.
Swiss Village Bulk Foods, Ashery Country store (Fredericksburg, Ohio) just to name a few others. There are tons of them.
LGB!!!
Oh and not sure which one, but one also had pet food. Which was interesting to me.
Thank you! A few things there my hubby will enjoy!
Your welcome!
We’re in the underwriting stages of buying a house near Amish country around Dover, Ohio. We visit that whole area all the time and decided to go for the house when we saw it for sale. Love the area.
Congrats! I have a friend who lives in Dover! Very cute a charming little town! Hey! If you are new to the area…..they have fabulous wings and pulled pork at Hog Heaven!
Malagator,
Do you live in Tuscarawas County?
No. I live up in what they call the gateway to Amish Country. Wayne County and very red 🙂
Walnut Creek has good products. Our local Wholesale/Retail market sells many of their items. My other half likes their potato chips because of their “potatoey” flavor. Also their canned meats.
I have their canned meat in my cart!!!
Yes, I really like Walnut Creek’s products.
Spray starch is super hard to find in lower Arkansas for some reason
What’s it made from? Potato?
Yes
So, what is going to happen to all the fast-food drive-ins like McDonalds, etc.?
The corporate chains are stuck buying product from the home office. SW Missouri has many mom and pop fast food joints that are not subject to buying product from one source. They mainly buying from commercial food suppliers for bulk and price, but are free to go to the grocery store in a pinch.
And we should all be supporting the Mom and Pops over the big chains.
Hope it improves but people love their cheap stuff from the big box stores. I saw it in industry decades ago when customers eschewed my products for cheap industrial goods made in China. They were good enough for short-term quarterly thinking. It’s a hard habit to break.
…”customers eschewed my products for cheap industrial goods made in China.”
Precisely why I do not shop at places like Walmart. I rather shop at the local organic store that carries locally grown produce and items made by small mom and pop businesses. I’d rather pay the higher price than use/eat cheap chynese chit.
I love our mom and pops. None of the employees are required to wear a mask, and they still put the salt, peeper, catsup and mustard on the table.
The big chains are becoming more expensive than the Mom and Pop places. Hubby likes McDonalds fries as a treat. This week he paid $3.50 for a large fry. He’s not liking them so much anymore. The same for Taco Bell. Their regular crunchy 12 count Party Pack used to be $10.99. It is now $17.99. (This is greater Columbus, OH area).
These prices aren’t sustainable for average working families. Also, these restaurants aren’t gonna make it very long with limited dining times. We have so many restaurants around us that are only open for around 5 hours a day. The franchise owners have got to be losing money, or they took out PPP loans to cover themselves.
Our country is in for a very rough ride.
They are franchises that will go to the wall!
It is worst than self inflicted wounds.
What happens if this …
https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-revolutionary-guards-commander-says-revenge-coming-for-soleimani-strike-from-within-us
translates as a drone attack that targets a very significant portion of our refinery capacity.
With assist from the FBI and the muslim loaded CIA, no doubt.
Has John Kerry been to Iran recently?
Been watching and preparing, and it’s been a steady decline in grocery availability. However, today was shocking, but expected. Every isle was missing more items than usual. Produce and meat was limited and juices were wiped out. Not too good.
Pet food at Tractor Supply still plentiful, but they were packed today.
Yes, I noticed that. Did you know apple juice and sauce comes from China?
The end result of course will be food rationing. It is not unlikely that only vaccinated people will be allowed to buy food. Perhaps it sounds tin foil hat now, but who would have predicted all of the other stuff that has happened in the last two years…
I was in a Market Basket close to Boston, MA… they have an abundance of items… it really makes me wonder about their supply chains, as so far, so good. It will be interesting to see how things unfold.
That particular retailer seems to be one of the better, more organized grocers in the northeast. The one near me was one of, if not the first to get restocked after the great toilet paper shortage a while back. They made the news when employees resisted a big corporate takeover. I think the employees wound up buying the company.
Market Basket is the best and most affordable of all the local stores in blueMA, IMHO.
Some places operate closer to the margin than others. If the business has invested in warehouse space to manage expansions and contractions in their supply, one might experience less supply issues than another business that operates just in time right on the edge. One missed train car or a few trucks is the difference between normal and a bunch of empty shelves.
I was always an ‘extra stock for my customers’ type setup, mainly due to the remote location. Sure, it cost money to invest in inventory like that but it serviced the customers far better. It wasn’t food, rather think the machinery that farms the food and processes the food. Machine goes down and there goes the schedule and supply chain consistency.
Historically, we all worked together to bring farm goods to the consumer. These days, IDK. Weird world out there.
Thanks for sharing your experience and knowledge.
Our rural Virginia town has a newer local general store that won two grants because we are considered a “food desert.” The owner bought several new coolers and buys local meat, produce, dairy, bakery, flour, cornmeal, eggs, and even local canned goods. If a local store can expand to cover these food items, it will be a blessing to our communities.
I think the grants were through our state. Not sure if the feds provided the $ but the concept of “food deserts” was a Michelle Obama thing, IIRC.
And here in the South, our independent/employee owned regional chains like Market Basket are not playing the shortage game. While there is legitimate shortages, I believe the Marxist corporations like Heinz and Walmart hold food deliveries in back not refreshing the shelves – I haven’t noticed out of stock items at pickup at local Walmart superstore (I still buy some items from Walmart). Our Kroger and regional chain Food City seem to have everything I need.
How is your Publix & Food Lion?
It has been a constant struggle to find red and green capsicum. Noticed the orange juice is almost nearly empty, but I have traditionally always fresh squeezed my own which has been incredibly frustrating the past year as the oranges are awful (what used to take 2.5-3 oranges to get 12-14 oz now takes 6) and the juice is bitter. Bought some grapefruit recently since this is just about in season for FL grapefruit. Almost all produce is bruised or wilting, sad. I need to get our garden operational this spring.
Capsicum is easy to grow from a red bell pepper. Let it go wrinkled in a sunny spot, scrape out the seeds and plant about 3mm deep. 1/8th inch? They need sun. Harvest green for vitamins, yellow or red for polyphenols.
Just a thought to keep in mind , once things get scarce and society gets ‘ sporty ‘ , I’m wondering if that is when exercise — CYBER POLYGON — goes live , a cyber-pandemic already war gamed out just like pre-plandemic ” Event-201 ”
April 3 , 2020 Wakk St Journal Op-Ed by Henry ( dark oracle ) Kissinger where he said :
” WE need to have a ” Parallel Enterprise ” to ensure ‘order’ in a post Covid-19 world “
Wall St Journal
but Wakk St works too …. LOL
We have a number of fruits trees like pears, apples, pawpaw, plums, persimmon, apricots, peaches and grapes. We have fish pond and we will be expanding our veggie garden this year. We are just stocking up on meat.
Apples and cherries are hardy, but in the last decade we’ve lost our pear trees, plums, apricots and peaches. Harsh winters are not easy on fruit trees. Planted blueberry and fall gold raspberry in hopes for more fruit next season.
Can’t wait to get started on the greenhouse and enclosed garden project. Whew.
Agreed. We have plums that were killed by harsh winter. We still have patches of strawberries, blueberries, raspberries, gooseberries, honeyberries, chokeberries and blackberries. Hopefully, we can survive with those and maybe share or barter with neighbors.
Buy local types. They are hardy.
If you have rooms for fruit trees, you have rooms for chickens. That will help your meat situation. They are easy to keep, and require very little space. Another idea is rabbits. Tastes like chicken once you get past the Thumper factor…
Avoid giving names to the rabbits. Makes it easier to eat without having to explain to the kids that you are eating their pet.
Unfortunately, we get too attached with our animals. We probably become vegetarian first, maybe when armageddon comes. LOL.
Anyone thinking about chickens:
About space for chickens, remember they are live creatures with their own social structure and they won’t do well if they are crowded.
Generally the rule is at least 4 sq. ft per chicken in the coop and at leat 8 sq. ft. per chicken in the run. However, if you will not be letting them out of the run, expand to 14-16 sq. ft. per chicken in the run.
Keep in mind that the ready-made set-ups are usually inadequate for a happy, healthy flock.
Learn before you start: backyardchickens.com
Thinking about quail…cheaper to keep..less trouble to keep…but takes 3-4 eggs to equal 1 chicken egg
I’d like to add to that, baby clothes. Boo has needed a new wardrobe since it started getting cool, but all you can find is 3-6 months, and even those are sold out now. Ordering online presents the same problem – Gerber is the only brand with clothes over 3-6 months still in stock, and after ordering several footsies I see why they were rejected by other parents.
This time last year Parent’s Choice diapers were $17.99 for a big box. Checking out today they were $23.99.
Old Navy has some great baby clothes and they’re pretty cheap.
What about resale baby and children’s clothing? Any stores selling such in your area?
Only one, and they’re a total ripoff. Garanimals and Child of Mine are cheaper and fit better.
Even the local Salvation Army stores have raised prices. I’m not blaming them. It’s a sign of the labor & rent & utility times.
I went to Baby consignment stores for my little ones, hardy ever got anything new for them. They grow out of them so fast.
I don’t post that often (only if/when I have something to say/add), but I read here on a daily basis and have for years.
Some places to check for reasonably priced baby/toddler/children’s clothes: Kohls.com, Boscovs.com, BuyBuyBaby.com, Burkesoutlet.com. Boscov’s is one of my favorite stores, I shop there often.
Some other places online (legit and trustworthy sites) where you can buy reasonably priced baby/toddler/children’s clothes:
https://babymallonline.com/
https://www.childrensplace.com/
I don’t have any little ones anymore, and so far no grandkids yet, but I have a few friends who have upwards of 8 children, so I purchase clothes for their little ones for Birthdays, Christmas, and Easter, from time to time. The sites I listed above are all places I have personally shopped at.
Hope this helps 🙂
Luckily where I live (SW Missouri) we are blessed with 3 dairy bottlers, an abundance of dairy farms, cow and hog farms and a couple of meat packers that use local product. We also have a large Associated Grocers warehouse that supplies the local and regional supermarkets (where I shop) . We also have a chicken hatchery and egg producer. Supplies (as of today) are still good except the cookie/cracker aisle and wet pet food.
I have noticed that saltine
crackers are limited in the stores in Kokomo Indiana. Weird!
I’m thinking I need to buy lots of saltines. If bread is in short supply, PB & J on saltines taste great. I’m in MI. I’ll check stores tomorrow (Monday).
Consistently unable to find Half and Half in any brand at several supermarkets that always carries it!
California is your first problem.
There is more…
Yesterday there was a business news article that when I clicked on it lead to a 401 server response.
No amount of search could turn up the article.
Title of article…
RPg Family Wealth Advisory LLC decreased their weight in the consumer non-cyclicals.
This RPg Family Wealth LLC represents the home offices of some of the Richest families in America with billions of family wealth in the marketplace.
non-cyclical aka food, ultilities, pharmaceutical etc.
Get the picture…
Oh yes. Absolutely.
Year 2 and no one in our government is seriously talking about sending a bill to China. They won’t even talk about China as the culprit.
China is their employer…
In Skowhegan at the Pig Time 89cent store they are having a sale on everything rectal from fleet to crack cream half off , out dated butt who cares , latex free fissures ointments , the store is all jazzed up like a party atmosphere , people dressed up like pigs , free donut holes and everything
They close at 9 so hurry!!
Hard pass for me. Butt thanks!
I remember those “expired food ” stores up in Maine. LOL.
Wet dog food and dog treats were nowhere to be seen in my Aldi. A few packs of doggy style jerky and that was it! You are correct about Organic being almost same price. I got romaine hearts organic today and they were just 20 cents more than regular.
Clearly, we need to have the US Military take over all this complex shortage and supply chain stuff. The US Military is very good at this kind of thing and would get it all delivered.
Of course, they would probably deliverer most of it to the Taliban, but at least someone wouldn’t go hungry.
Spot Check – Two Days ago, Walmart – Central Montana
Wet cat food shelves were stocked at 10% capacity
Frozen potato items….stocked at 10% capacity
Carrots – new green growth, these babies had been in storage for quite some time.
Not one single banana, organic or otherwise in the produce department.
Two weeks ago, Ramen & Kraft Macaroni & Cheese – zero product
Two days ago, maybe three cases of Kraft Macaroni & Cheese in the center aisle, still no ramen
One aisle in the store is usually filled with different holiday products. One would expect this aisle to now be filled with Valentine’s day products…Nope…the entire aisle is another aisle of soda
That makes three entire aisles where soda has been used to give the impression that the shelves are full.
Our Wal-Mart has an aisle that one has to walk through to get to the carts. This aisle is usually filled with canned goods…Nope…the entire aisle was filled with cheap beer.
Paper plates – shelves at 25% of capacity
Milk Cooler – stocked at 50% capacity
I’m not a cook, so I’m a fan on McCormick’s, Knorr, etc spice packets that you can use to make spaghetti, or soup, or season a roast…Two days ago, there were brand names I’d never heard of, boxes and boxes of product I’d never seen before and it was disguising another 36 feet of floor space that was missing product.
Local grocer – usually carries about 25# of chicken livers…..5# available
usually has about 50 frozen fryers on hand…..4 available
The entire cooler for all other chicken was empty…no chicken of any sort….
Price of 5#, 10#, 20# bags of potatoes in both stores were up in price.
Picked up my prescription refill….normal medications that millions of people take daily..the price of my prescriptions went up 80% from last month.
Noteworthy: Massive turnover at this WalMart. All checkers were over retirement age.
Another thing i noticed in my market was most of the employees were in their 60’s 70’s.
Yikes.
Annnnnnnd … the press is spinning this as “people sick with Omicron are putting the strain on business and transport” so “: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10381669/Five-million-people-call-sick-week-hits-second-highest-daily-case-count.html
What if “Omicron” is simply the flu…
More like a cold, no severe joint pains, nor high fever.
So preppers don’t look so crazy after all, huh? Have you stocked up on your seeds?
dollar tree 4 packs of seeds for a dollar,been getting them for years.
But do they grow? I have purchase their seeds and nothing happens, and I do the planting properly
that’ll be the next thing in short supply…
Seems like everything is primed for large-scale food theft. 🤔
Thank you Sundance. Stocked up on months of canned dog food, and going for extra bags of dry dog and cat food this week. So far the shortages locally Central Upstate NY have been spotty and short-lived. Bread, most often. Oranges are outrageous but grapes are fantastic. Pork reasonable except for BACON :(. Chicken (skinless boneless breasts) commonly still available on sale at $1.99/lb.
Bacon is EASY to make. Got salt? Got bacon. Smoker? Smoked bacon.
Bremerton, WA Winco has plenty of stuff last time I was in there, a day before new years.
I went to Home Depot today and the holes on the shelves were a lot more noticeable. Lots of things China sourced out of stock. I was specifically looking for a utility water pump, and all that was there was 200 plus dollar sump pumps, which I don’t need. Insulated staples for stapling up Romex were low in stock, too.
Regarding potatoes, they shouldn’t be a diet staple anyway, no carbs should be. Carbs -> sugar by the body, and those calories go right into fat cells if your glycogen stores in your liver and muscles are full.
If you consume 4000 kcal per day, you will get gout if you eat mostly protein. Too many fats will block the liver and pancreas, so cards remain for cals.
Couch potatoes should agree tho…
I noticed organic ginger priced cheaper than regular ginger, at $1.29/lb
Great for indigestion, acid reflux, and nausea.
Don’t throw away the rind. Boil it for tea.
Good to know! Thanks. I have a whole list of medical uses for ginger tea.
The Golden Road to Unlimited Socialism
https://gatesofvienna.net/2022/01/the-golden-road-to-unlimited-socialism/
“What lessons, if any, can be taken from the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and applied to those of us stuck in the upcoming fall of the US Bloc?”
“The signs are everywhere:
A senile leader, lying media, a lawless society, corrupt institutions…
The fall is coming and I don’t think we can stop it.
If you haven’t seen, “Pandora’s Box”, watch episode 1 for a front row seat.
“Pandora’s Box, subtitled A Fable From the Age of Science, is a six part 1992 BBC documentary television series which examines the consequences of political and technocratic rationalism. The series was awarded a BAFTA in the category of “Best Factual Series” in 1993.”
-EP 1: The Engineer’s Plot (Communism in The Soviet Union)
youtube.com/watch?v=h3gwyHNo7MI
Report here from the Peoples Republic of Maryland (Bel Air – 30 minutes northeast of the beautiful no-go zone Balt) – We shop at Sprout’s every week. First time today I saw some empty shelves. Not any just a few parts of shelves. Milk, eggs, and tortilla shells were wiped out. We had a snow storm (1-1/2 inches which qualifies as a storm nowadays and they closed schools) on Thursday.
The price of navel oranges jumped up from $.89 to $1.49 each. I bought honey tangerines instead which were on sale at 3 for $1. I usually buy Satuma oranges and they were the same price at $.79 each but the quality was no good. Mangos jumped up to $1.50 each and were so-so quality. We only buy meat if it is on sale. Last week we picked up 3 pounds of ground pork at $.99/pound. This week we snagged pork chops at $1.99/pound and stir fry pork at $.99/pound. We buy Bronzini every week and the price has been steady at $9.99 per pound for over a year. All other fresh meat was way too overpriced for us since we have a decent amount in our freezer
Looked like the store was trying to get rid of their New Year’s overbuys. Found a party bag of potato chips for $.99 and a smaller bag for $.50. Lots of stuff discounted for quick sale at $.99.
We buy pretty much fresh fruit and vegetables and snacks and some fish and meat. We usually spend around $80/week for the two of us. Been steady for the last two years. And we eat like kings and queens. Both my wife and I can cook really well. We don’t buy prepared foods and only buy what is on sale and stay away from brand names unless they are on sale. I very rarely ever buy any Heinz or Kraft products. We cook all of our meals at home.
Just remember meat and fat are essential, green vegetables good, avoid carbs, cut out seed oils and grains
Take this time to change the mix of what you eat
Good comment, Rona! Just to expand with the basics:
Good oils = Avocado oil, olive oil and coconut oil (btw, don’t buy cheap olive oil, should spend at least $10-$20 per bottle or it’s not legitimate)
Bad oils: vegetable oil, canola oil, soybean oil
Borderline okay oils: sunflower/safflower oil
BTW, choosing the right oil is universal across all food categories. Whether it’s salad dressing, bottled sauces, crackers, chips, or any processed food, etc. only choose the foods with olive, avocado or coconut oil. If they have soybean oil, canola oil, vegetable oil, etc., you are damaging your health.
Thanks Sundance, now I know what to use my new chest freezer for. However, if I am to adopt a new kitty it looks like I better really stock up on cat supplies too.
Today I was at Sam’s. Yes I needed some paper towels & not really TP!
However there was a limit of one on all these paper products, so I get a big thing of TP too even though I have 2 big Costco ones along with just having opened a big Costco TP package.
Hey worse comes to worse, TP lasts forever so I can use it to barter or give to someone in need.
Will say that some of the shelves in some aisles were sparse, but it is Saturday.
Frozen beef liver is still fairly cheap , less per pound then premium wet dog food , easy to prep and mix with kibble , my pup loves it .
More on the potato shortage.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/potato-shortage-leads-to-global-shortage-of-french-fries-potato-chips
Most people do not know this, but only a few countries can grow potatoes. The USA being one of them.
South America, Asia and Africa cannot grow potatoes in natural soil.
“Although the disease that wiped out the potato crop was a natural phenomenon, most historians now agree that the resulting famine was largely man made because of government incompetence and even wilful neglect. Some officials at the time even regarded the famine as God’s way of getting rid of excess population.”
The Great Famine in Ireland – the ‘Irish holocaust’
https://ireland-calling.com/irish-famine/
Trinity, by Leon Uris
The Incas practically inventer potatoes.
Sweet potatoes in our neck of the woods. Better than regular potatoes anyhow.
speaking of groceries and supply chain issues, what is Elaine Chao doing as a member of Kroger’s board of directors?
Doesn’t Mitch McConnell’s wife have more high stakes things to insert herself into?
According to the article, this happened last August.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-elects-elaine-chao-board-203000349.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAnJClR0WHhNqWvPmXooIeJT7JajYQwpbBUjJ-5JJjbFHa2BDWMeoOuM0_VuOr_WLRbP7jgd2S3mKjfIgUE7R_hjbTa-mE9836BFFcppUGib4mJIvqgfgrD2yYYmuDgF4xXJi-fUSORIrIpofChG2wbi19nIng1njR4GEQl05_oa
Wendy Gramm received $100,000/year as a board member of Enron while her husband, Phil Gramm, was the chair of the Senate Banking Committee.
Strange how such things happen./s
No frozen hash browns in my frys supermarket in Cottonwood Arizona, Many of the shelves were empty on a Saturday.
Biggest food shopping day of the week.
Sorry if anyone has come up with this. I have a four year old and a 15 year old to keep fed. The little one is hopelessly addicted to milk.
Idea:
Powdered milk (I’ve gotten 4 big cans stored) and add a bit of Neosure. It has lots of zinc. Add protein powder.
Bulk vitamins
This way they have protein, carbs, and vitamins.
Any ideas?
Also, my grandpa in law (90!) makes ammo. He just made my FIL a ton, but now he can’t find primers. I’m sure you all know, but I wanted to add it to the list.
idea: weaned humans do not need milk. Look for other protein sources. (yes, we LIKE dairy products, but they are not essential). Vegetable calcium sources abound — do a bit of research and try to shift your family’s diet if you need to do so. Just saying, don’t worry too much that skipping milk means skipping an essential nutritional source. There are better alternatives to milk, health-wise.
My town in Eastern Oregon has two large potato processors. The harvest and storage functions around here have been going strong since Covid appeared. The plants shut down for 1-2 weeks when those pesky positive tests were reported and our dictatorial health guy shut em down. They are going full tilt right now and hope it stays that way, baring petty dictators.
Every aisle I walked down today had noticeable holes (bare shelf areas) and most aisles had more than one. These are not the stores from the America I grew up in.
This is Joe Stolen’s Communist USSA
Fact about pet food. 2 items: Local stores nearly devoid of canned cat food. Nearly every store, nearly every shelf, completely empty. Second: Fiancée works a processing/filling line at a major dog food plant. All but one line is shuttered due to raw materials not being available to process.
Photo of the closest store to me, but not the only one in this condition. Canned cat food does not exist here. https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Wjgq6drPIuiw1E9vs1nVnPV_gDGuq13/view?usp=sharing
Looks like that is the wrong pic.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PT-eM93s9j8bwi_7zoLzv_PDUVatbfHX/view?usp=sharing sorry…yeah, I’m a dumbass.
LOL. I do such things all the time.
I visited a number of Rio Grande Valley businesses in January 2020 before all the covid nonsense started. I had heard there was a robust cold storage business and asked if I could see what was there. A municipal executive drove me around one afternoon to look at cold storage construction sites not far from the Mexican border. This wasn’t a matter of how many square feet was being built, but a matter of square miles.
Growers in Central America were among the biggest financiers of this construction. Many of them have two growing seasons a year due to favorable climate and soil conditions, and they needed somewhere to store their production until it could be moved to food processors or distributors.
These facilities and growers could very possibly mitigate or relieve some of the adverse effects described in this post.
The Irish Famine – the Great Hunger (Irish Holocaust)More than a million people died and another million emigrated because of the famine in Ireland in the late 1840s. But it wasn’t just a natural phenomenon. Increasingly, it is being seen as genocide by incompetent and callous government officials.
https://ireland-calling.com/irish-famine/
I’m glad he can’t read any of this!
Would mixing kitten chow in a bit help the cat food have more nutrittion in smaller amounts?
Kitten food has more calories so be careful – if you haven’t seen the “chonk chart” look for it online 😂 I’m sure there’s plenty of articles online about feeding kitten food to adult cats. You could call your vet too and ask for guidance. My vet is aware of the supply chain problem and suggested Taurine powder to sprinkle on non cat food/people food if we have to feed our cats more creatively.
I got a cat this August who was 1.5 years old and the local SPCA sent home a bag of kitten food. He loves the smaller bites but I shifted him to Purina adult (made in USA) and he is happy with the chicken/turkey indoor cat type.
Kitten foods are generally rich in fats and extra protein, that’s why you switch to adult foods to help keep them from getting to be fat cats. It would help extend your cat food but if your cats are like mine they will know if the bowl isn’t as full😅
3) Purchase the powered/dehydrated version (potatoes, milk, etc) and experiment (jazz it up). My mom fed us powered milk during the depressive 70’s. It was horrible to drink but made a good macaroni and milk soup. Bizarre
I went to the Acme grocery store on Tuesday it was completely out of frozen potatoes, pasta, bread and pie crust. Dry Pasta is very limited. If a food shortage is in our future, I feel bad for all the people who have never experienced a “poor” spell in their lives. They will be hardest hit.
Thank you, Sundance – You feed my mind.
NIDO dried milk is much better than that stuff our moms gave us. I remember it well. Yuck!!
Was surprised when I tasted the NIDO at how much better it is th/ that stuff.
I use Saco powdered buttermilk for making pancakes and cornbread. Nothing to complain about.
An Morta Gor, 1848, Ireland, 1.6 million dead in four years. All this talk of potatoes reminded me of the kindness of the betters to their slaves. Though not the same, exactly, the current use of BBB, COVID, mandates and supply chain issues smacks of the same (evil) human nature we see before us. God help us; and, yes, Heaven helps those who help themselves , and, through thoughtfulness and kindness, help our neighbors. Our betters be damned!
Let me check this list for Dallas Texas:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically). (Yes)
(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket. (Yes)
(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products. (Yes)
(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings. (haven’t checked)
(5) The absence of non-seasonal products. (Yes)
(6) Small to little price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain) (Yes)
(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type. (Yes)
(8) Absence of large container products (Yes, gallon milk, gallon vinegar)
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (haven’t checked)
(10) Big brand shortage. (Yes)
(11) Shortage of wet pet foods (Yes, for specific brands 1 month plus)
(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (haven’t checked)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries. (Yes)
Restaurants in our area only closed for three weeks in 2020. Most served take out for another 8 weeks. Very few went out of business.
We aren’t seeing lots of empty shelves in our area, anyway at the stores where we shop. We just spent $1.25/lb for amazing delicious strawberries. Paid what we’re used to paying for boneless/skinless chicken breasts. I can’t complain. At this point in time anyway.
Folks, PLEASE include your location, whether region, state, county, or town, as general or specific as you like.
Your ground report is much more helpful when we know what part of the country.
THANK YOU!