The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released the first estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (July, Aug, Sept). [DATA HERE] The top line number of two percent GDP growth is significantly worse than most economists and financial pundits expected.
The second quarter GDP was 6.7%, so a slow down to 2% is very significant considering the economy should be rebounding and reopening after the COVID-19 impacts. However, when we dig into the details [Table One] you will see how what is happening in your life is actually reflected in the data. None of this should be a surprise, as the data is simply reflecting what is happening in your personal checkbook economics.
First, here’s the media jaw agape, with false explanations and justifications:
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The drop has nothing to do with the ‘delta variant’, and everything -EVERYTHING- to do with inflation and impacts from Joe Biden’s economic policies.
Let’s take a look at the details, and you will see how the national GDP is simply a reflection on what we are doing to survive the Biden economy.
GDP growth is the measure of what is happening inside the U.S. economy. GDP reflects the value of goods and services produced in the U.S. minus the value of goods and services we import from outside the U.S.
Consumer spending represents two-thirds of our overall U.S. economy. When Americans stop buying stuff, our GDP drops.
A few things to remember about the value of goods and services. Inventories are an asset, increases in the inventories of goods we produce is a positive driver of GDP. Those inventories become sales, and those sales are also calculated in the value of goods we build, like houses. Considering how much housing values have increased; and considering how much more value that should add to the GDP overall; when the economy “decelerates”, as housing values increase, that tells you something is profoundly askew.
Consumer spending represents two-thirds of our overall GDP growth. Now take a look at the data in Table-1
Notice what is highlighted? Massive drops in consumer purchases of Goods (-9.2%), specifically in consumer spending for ‘Durable goods’ -26.2%
That statistic should not come as a surprise to those CTH readers who have followed along in the past few months. That statistic is simply a reflection of what we are doing. We are paying so much more for energy, gasoline, fuel, housing and food (all driven by inflation), that we are not spending on durable goods like cars, trucks, or long term appliances, electronics or other non-essential items.
-26.2% in one quarter is a massive contraction in the purchasing of durable goods. However, it should not be a surprise. Overall inflation increased 5.4% in the third quarter as measured within this first estimate analysis of GDP. However, inflation on food and gasoline was more than four to eight times higher, respectively, than overall inflation. As a result, disposable income has collapsed:
“Disposable personal income decreased $29.4 billion, or 0.7 percent, in the third quarter”, according to the top line first analysis. However, again this is a preliminary estimation and reflects a very skewed data point. With inflation on essential items running much higher than wage growth, the -0.7 percent first estimate for personal income is profoundly generous to the Biden administration. We can expect the second estimate in late November -with more complete details- to be a significant downward revision because disposable incomes have dropped much more than -0.7%.
Purchases for durable goods do not drop by 26% with only 0.7% drops in income. Look at your own checkbook economics. All of us blue-collar and working class folks are hunkering down and prioritizing food, fuel and home heating costs. We are not out buying new stuff.
Private residential sales are down 7.7% in the July, August, Sept, period according to the BEA data. Remember when CTH said at a macro level housing prices peaked in the last two weeks of May and first two weeks of June? There’s another supportive data-point.
Yes, there are regional impacts from relocation that are driving home values up in key regions like Florida and some suburban neighborhoods as people flee the crazy. However, overall home values have peaked, and only institutional investors (not families) are purchasing them now. Those institutional investors are buying property because they need tangible assets…. because their paper assets are extremely vulnerable. Vanguard and Blackrock purchasing houses gives them a tangible asset they can then leverage for pennies on the dollar for more low interest loans from the fed. Those houses are then turned into rental incomes feeding the mothership.
Lastly, exports should be a benefit to GDP, but as you can see in Table-1 exports are -2.5%, we are exporting less value in part because the value of our currency has dropped so dramatically.
The bottom line is this. The first estimate of Q3 GDP growth is merely a reflection of what you know is happening in your life and around your neighborhood. The next revision to this data (late November) will be lower than the first estimate because you can see the first estimate has not yet caught up to the current status as it existed in September.
Not “unexpectedly”? The pundits didn’t use that word this time. It must be clear even to them that the cliff edge has been breached.
After 2 quarters of FJB administration the USA stood at the cliff’s edge. During the third quarter it made a giant step forward.
Ah The Great Leap Forward.
Rings a bell.
Fall Down Harder: The revised version of BBB.
Breached and free falling.
Mark Steyn made a very good point about decline in his AMERICA ALONE saying that, when he wrote in 2006, decline is always gradual, so much so that few will notice it day by day (and yes, I am paraphrasing). But when the fall eventually comes, as it always does, it will be abrupt and devastating.
I agree. We’ve been declining for decades… economically, morally, spiritually. Now, suddenly, we have fallen off the edge we’ve been heading towards for decades. It seems sudden, because we have not been aware that we were in decline. Only in looking back, historically, can we see where we’ve been…and know absolutely and finally, that what seems to have happened in such a short time is simply the end of the ride.
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
“What brought it on?”
“Friends,” said Mike. “I had a lot of friends. False friends. Then I had creditors, too. Probably had more creditors than anybody in England.” —Ernest Hemingway, “The Sun Also Rises”
We have many similar friends: Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq,..
We are the world’s foremost debtor nation and continue to dig the debt hole deeper at an accelerated rate.
When will the bill come due?
Superb post. Yes we have similar “friends”. I believe the bill came due long ago. But we continue to rob Peter to pay Paul. And if Peter’s pockets are empty, we print into oblivion. And so it goes. Fiscal and monetary probity is dead and buried deep.
Those of us who lived through the Carter years knew exactly what the Q3 GDP was going to look like, and we also know what the Q4 number will be once the layoffs, firings and suspensions without pay due to the vaccine mandates hit the economy. It will be negative.
As a child of the ’70s, and a teenager in the ’80s, Carter and President Reagen shaped my politics.
A blind badger could see the difference in quality of life between the two presidential eras.
Unfortunately, the social media engine, the academy and MSM will continue to poison the minds of the next generation…something not as finely tuned during those years between Carter and Reagan. We must remain vigilant and stand strong against this marxist takeover.
I take it you were not a fan of ceding the will of the people and U.S. authority to the Trilateral Commission.
Yeah, bought my first home just after the end of the Carter era. Interest rates were breathtaking 😮
However, plenty of regular guy work was available and pay was good and no pandemic BS, not even during the swine flu in the mid-70’s.
I was running two gas stations in Chicagoland during the Carter regime.
Long lines of cars were waiting for me when I opened up in the mornings.
They wanted to get their 5 gallons and then go find 5 more so they could get around.
Gas only on odd or even day,was it your address or tag number,cant remember?
Tag
That was fun wasn’t it? I bought my first home about the same time and the rate was 11.75%.
I remember double digit interest rates, double digit inflation rates, and double digit unemployment rates. And trying to work and raise a family through it all. Ah, the good old days.
Soon,…too soon we will LONG for “only double digit rates,..as Bidenettes are not content to simply emulate Carter, they want to SURPASS him.
And it was still near impossible to dislodge that sap Carter. How those Ds cling to their overlords.
Went to the house settlement in 78, bank gave us 9 1/2 % loan, at the table bank person said your rate went up to 10%.did not sound like much but we were young.
Too bad many Americans are woefully, and wilfully, deaf,dumb and blind in that regard.
Then this will be a “Learning Experience” for them.
On purpose. 2020 happened because they feared and loathed the roaring Trump Economy.
Exactly.
We were on the way to being completely re-opened and a V-shaped recovery during the summer of 2020, and they shut the blue states down again in the Fall to stop it all and set-up the steal.
And I think you actually meant the plandemic of 2020.
And I agree with you that it was launched to stop the roaring Trump economy.
And now, we are suffering through Biden’s economic plan, which is evidently called the Delta variant!
Correction; Obama’s and The New World’s Order. Simple; follow our rules and we will let you do what we want. If you don’t then no pizza or water.
and they also FEARED the mean tweets!
Totally worth it to pay $4 for a gallon of gas and $10 sirlions….
And the recovery – if and when we ever return to our senses – will take many times longer than it took to get us into this mess.
Lets Go Brandon
Pretty sure they want this to be the new normal.
You’re correct.
Except it is probably the beginning of much worse to come.
The permanent normal envisioned is to come.
You are correct, as this is only 280 days of the worthless communist administration. It still has 3 + years to go, just imagine the destruction they will cause.
Won’t last “3 + years”.
Hang in there. I think God’s got a few surprises up His sleeve.
But you don’t start planting new seed until you have cleared away the deadwood and the weeds.
And, the ice cold water bucket is about to hit the remaining sleepers in the face. Too many lean on the government or their retirement nest eggs for security, not God.
Seek ye first the Kingdom of God and all these things will be added unto you.
Although, you can still be like Noah too, if you see the storm acomin’.
And, get out of cities. It’s getting to be last call.
Agree, any still in cities, even in “Red States”, get out NOW, to avoid the rush.
In any kond of disaster, (90 percent of which can be seen coming, by the discerning) at some point the Government makes the decision to make all highways, both “sides” one way; OUT.
This is because of ALL the people that HAVE the means to “bug out”, but wait too late to excercise it.
The smart ones are ALREADY out, and staying in motel rooms, outside the danger area.
Be SMART, don’t put it off.
Obama’s third term is progressing just as they want it to.
Just swimmingly!
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I think it’s his fourth, The duly Twice Elected President -in-Exile still managed to get quite a bit done with MaObama’s Shadow Presidency attacking him st every turn.
F-BO. Where is BO? Just asking because someone asked me in a store. Told them I did not know.
At least Jimmy Carter wasn’t running around trying to inject everyone with poison masquerading as medicine.
At least, when we got sick of Carter’s incompetence, we were able to vote him out.
Life was better without the needle nazis and under relatively fair elections (though, of course, the Democrats have always been the party of election fraud whenever they could get away with it).
While nowhere near as invasive and draconian, the swine flu vaccine program during the Ford/Carter era turned out to be quite a mess. I believe it was one impetus to the legislation Reagan signed in the mid-80’s limiting legal remedies for vaccine injuries for certain groups to no-fault in the Court of Federal Claims and arbitration.
Reagan’s mid 80s amnesty didn’t help matters either.
IMO JoBama is using the plandemic scam to ruin the US economy for his communist boss in China.
Forcing people to take injections that they don’t want is tyranny.
Went to the grocery store today. Walked out posses off and I wasn’t the only one. Unreal.
pissed off.
don’t you just love autocorrect.is there a way to shut it off?
I did too, but I bought what we needed as the price will be higher next month. Could not even entertain filet mignon at 24.98 a pound. We used to get them and split with crab legs that we can no longer afford at 34 f0r 2 pounds. That used to be a special meal out, then a special meal at home now not at all.
Soon you will be strictly eating plant based food and loving it.
Real meat,
Its for our elite!
Be careful with those plant based foods with the mRNA added.
https://thenewamerican.com/edible-vaccines-ca-scientists-developing-mrna-vaccine-producing-plants/
Don’t you mean masters?
Yes, but it did not rhyme with “meat.”
Elite=Masters.
All the same to me.
stocking up on p nut butter, think we can survive a good long while + what comes out of garden.
If too many people begin gardening for food, it will be outlawed.
Cannot have food independence.
It simply will not do!
Learn stealth gardening.
They need to just print ‘market price‘ on the packages. If one needs to know the price, one can’t afford it 😮
Myself, I haven’t had butcher-fresh beef or pork from the store in over a year. Too expensive for my fixed income. Happy that folks can still afford it. That and just going to a store makes me want to clean my gun. Heh.
Deer season is upon us, sir.
might want to make some deer jerky for when the power goes out.
Prices are rising weekly, this is almost unheard of in our country. Buy what you need for atleast the next 2 years relating to stuff you commonly need, Light bulbs, soap, cleaning supplies, etc. (I know food is harder to do that with.)
Essential medications, equipment –
I’m doing my best to stockpile essentials, but snarled supply lines – it’s already scary.
stockpile weekly eg toothpaste, dish detergent,clothes detergent,deot, bleach,recipes for homemade cleaning supplies, dry soup mixes, canned soups, and use closets etc to store as much as possible God bless America
Imagine when it becomes impossible to blame Pres. Trump and/or the China virus? I look forward to the syphilitics media whores contorting into knots trying to create excuses.
How many years did Obama blame Bush?
They will always blame Trump and a covid-super-cold variant.
Well, the Bush family and the neocons are as guilty as the Democrats in selling out this nation and corrupting society. They did their part to bring us to this place. President Trump was the cure.
They are the “UNIPARTY”. Out of 500 politicians we may have 4, possibly 5, that are true constitutional conservatives. All the rest are destructive communist traitors.
The whole horrible 8 years.
No one told Obama the story of “the 3 letters”,…
“FJB”
Don’t underestimate the hold that leftardism has on the human mind once a mind has been infected by the radical left controlled academic domain, MSM/Big Tech, and government bureaucracy. Many of those infected will never be able to overcome their infection no matter how bad it gets.
Yep, the brainwashed ain’t likely to come back.
Remember when Biden and his crew trashed shale oil, and the Alberta oil industry.
We’ll just today, Suncor, ( Canada’s largest tar sands player) jumped nearly 10% and doubled their dividend.?
Millions of folks sit home all day, CNN on, or other T.V. drivel.
I just got off the phone with an individual asking “what can we do”
I said never surrender, or succumb to the inducements.
These folks have yet to feel pain, but they will.
Fill your cupboards, put a bunch of cash in your house safe, and out of the eyes of these criminals.
Network with likeminded folks, and avoid the jab at all costs.
Pain is a coming..and fast.
Most here will do just fine, the lambs. We know what happens to them.
Cheers!
JoeBama and the uniparty are all in on this. All by design. FJB ..
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Of course there will be a revision downwards. Just like there was every single time from 09 through 2016…….
This. A very quiet, nearly unreported, revision.
The exact opposite of what they did with PDJT.
It is all state propaganda now. Question EVERYTHING.
That’s why it was so important for JoBama to shut down our energy sector, and open the borders on day one.
Along with Fidel Trudeau, Keystone.
ChiCom riding in on a pair of donkeys.
Bidenflation
The economy is being cratered on purpose. The “fundamental transformation” is continuing apace.
I guess my question is: when will this end–and how? If anyone viewed the video from Tucker Carlson’s opening monologue last night, he did comparisons with similar economic downturns and we are in worse shape–and getting worse–than in 2008.
I do not believe we can survive another three years under Joe Xiden. In fact, I don’t think we can survive another year….at least, not at this pace.
Maybe ‘Tucker’ should have reported on Hunter Biden’s laptop, or the abject theft of the 2020 election, when he had the chance?
You obviously missed the one-on-one interview between Tucker and former Hunter Biden (and the Big Guy) business partner Tony Bobulinski. Bobulinksi laid it all out (ad did the New York Post–which was censored by Twitter and Facebook). Any other presidential candidate would have been crushed (and defeated) by the accusations Bobulinski made. But as we know, the corporate media and Big Tech circled the wagons to get the Big Guy elected.
The interview aired a few days before the November 3rd election. And yes, before AND after that interview, Tucker referenced the lap top.
Pro Tip: do you home work before commenting in online comment threads.
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The problem wasn’t the reporting but that none of the corrupt and cowardly would do anything about it after the reporting.
General John Kelly, President Trump’s former chief of staff, complained that he hated working with Donald Trump because all their dealings were “transactional”. I puzzled over this cryptic word, until I realized that Kelly hated working for a businessman, any businessman.
The federal bureaucracy is saturated with socialists and communists, most definitely including the military. Washington newspaper columnist Diana West has tried to tell us for years that James Comey and John Brennan, and so many others, are communists. A job within the federal bureaucracy is a splendid sanctuary from economic reality. The bureaucrats will be getting raises during any recession – they did in 2009.
Leftist dogma teaches them that economics is zero sum: if America becomes poorer, American wealth will magically migrate to poorer countries. They actually believe this.
Most of all, the Left is now fiercely at war with the private automobile. The decline in auto sales is beautiful to their eyes. The Co-Vid lockdown produced a decline in air pollution. The next lockdown may be explicitly justified to fight global warming.
I think it will end with bloodshed, either theirs or ours.
Hopefully, very little of ours, and rivers of theirs.
Not at this rate.
We are heading to an economic collapse. Prepare, prepare, prepare
The amount of debt defaulted on will make the 2008-12 collapse look like a pleasant sunny afternoon IMO. Exciting times. Good time to have general survival skills and experience. Those of us who grew up in the aftermath of the Depression remember and developed or were taught those skills.
The JoeBama Mis-administration has been a real shot in the arm for the U.S. economy.
Yessiree! Just what the doctor mandated.
If its anything like the mandated shot then that explains everything
That F’n CNN bitch starts by saying the drop was ‘unsurprising’ bc of the Covid restrictions “PEOPLE PUT ON THEMSELVES, FRANKLY”!
You see, peons, you did this to yourself. You caused the drop. You caused the mandates. You caused the business and school closures. You caused the mass firings. You did it to yourself and its your fault, so stop complaining.
Rigged elections in order to install a corrupt puppet, has awful consequences.
Hey, Ms. Romans! It’s not the delta smelt variant. It’s the Brandon, stupid!
“…we are exporting less value in part because the value of our currency has dropped so dramatically.”
When an exporting country’s currency declines in value, the importing customer countries’ currencies buy more of those goods so our exports should increase in volume. But if we measure the exports in dollars, yes the value has declined. So this statistic (-2.5%) also says the export volume didn’t increase enough to offset the decline in value.
So where President Trump increased the value of exports, OBiden has reversed course via Quackcine mandates
Shhhhh, that’s some edjumacation talk. We plebes n maroons can’ts gets this.
“We are paying so much more for energy, gasoline, fuel, housing and food (all driven by inflation) that we are not spending on durable goods like cars, trucks, or long term appliances, electronics or other non-essential items.” – Sundance
True but one of the reasons we are not spending on durable goods is they aren’t available! Try buy a refrigerator! I ordered one from Lowe’s 6 weeks ago when it came time for delivery they called and told me they had cancelled my order. What they thought was available wasn’t. The manager said he would give me $300 off any refrigerator. Every refrigerator that I could afford/need was out of stock and they weren’t taking orders because they had no idea when they would get them! Home Depot, Best Buy were the same. Luckily I found one at a local scratch and dent appliance store! Can’t buy durable goods if the retailers have only floor models (which they won’t sell) and no inventory and don’t know when they will!
My sister owns two high end appliance stores selling Wolf/Meile/Subzero etc. If you ordered a Subzero fridge in May you might be getting it now. It’s a 5-6 month wait. I’m sure it’s longer if you ordered now.
Just try getting a Generac!
That one’s very much on purpose I do believe.
As I said before, jobs are a lagging indicator. No sales = no jobs. Services and manufacturing will both be affected. Government jobs will be the “go to” solution for the left as always. Those of course will be awarded only to the “right” people. And those jobs will be indistinguishable from plain old welfare.
The left only cares about the economy to the extent it weakens their power. Otherwise, their preference is to keep pushing socialism for no reason other than socialism. Of course, you can add “environmentalism” and wouldn’t you know Mother Nature loves idle factories or no factories at all.
My cousin works for a large family owned manufacturing company. He said, as soon as Biden stole the WH, he noticed a rapid change in people buying things. It’s almost down to a trickle of work now. Whereas under Trump they were doing record sales monthly.
Deep-state coup Bidenomics = economic depression + spiraling inflation + Supply shortages + spiraling taxes + spiraling debt + rapid social deterioration/disintegration and spiraling government authoritarianism.
It’s going to look like Venezuela soon.
Without cheating their side would never win.
One explanation from someone in the retail automotive business which is the largest category of durable goods. Price increases in both new and used vehicles far exceed the inflation rate and have for over two years. With inventories at all time lows due to the supply crunch combined with the chip shortage which started the problem in a way, although there are many other factors, people are simply waiting, knowing this cannot last. Used truck values do not increase 50% over two years while they are being driven and worn instead of the usual depreciation in the value of a used vehicle. This is not normal. You have to pay far over sticker to buy a new vehicle and the used ones are even worse compared to what they were selling for only a couple of years ago but, this problem started in 2009 with cash for clunkers, one of the most brain damaged things a government could do but, hey, O was starting his reign of terror.
I know the business quite well through family.
You are absolutely correct, parts and service costs are a necessity.
Check them prices out…
A mid range import cost is stunning, an average $ amount going into the dealers pocket would surprise many.
Prices are anticipated to drop, but I wouldn’t bet on that anytime soon.
We are keeping out two vehicles an 2009 Honda, and a 1995 GMC 3/4 ton extra cab 4×4
My son in the business has suggested buying a 2021 off his lot at 0.99% The unit gets near 40mpg, and really isn’t that expensive, Yet!
He anticipates that the normal depreciation on a new is unlikely, and a 2021 may hold its value into model year 2023.
The skyrocketing gasoline price is everything to our economy….Gasoline prices affects the peasants the most…..and the reason we headed for a severe recession…..
Gasoline affects the peasants. Lead, or my lathe-turned coppers, affect the communist coup participants. One does inevitably follow the other as winter does summer.
Well, add a match to the gasoline and it does affect the communist coup participants. Much more pleasantly too, at least from my humble perspective.
“gasoline and propane, ho ho,..no more SNOW FLAKES, oh, oh!”
This is why Biden attacked our oil industry first, he knew it would cause massive inflation across the board. He is not as stupid as he seems relating to that, the only question is why is he attacking our oil industry and economy at scale?
You actually mean “Obama-from-congo” (like Chi-rac-go, IL).
This is on purpose.
Destruction of our economy, main street, US dollar, society, education system, medical system, judicial, law enforcement, military….the list is long.
All to usher in Communism.
Been to this rodeo. It is savage, evil and ugly.
When you lay on your deathbed, will your last conscious thought be, “Why didn’t I do more to disrupt and delay the communist take-over?”
Give it your best effort today because tomorrow may find us all enslaved.
They counted on docile victims and looks like they were correct.
Once we reach the realization that all “things” here in this life are transitory, we will be more willing to give them all up for what is righteous.
And when people are willing to sacrifice all their worldly things to fight for those more valuable freedoms and spiritual essentials, Tyranny in this world is quickly chased and extinguished.
Be willing to lose all, to fight for the priceless freedoms that are being stolen from us and our children. Just as the Founders did.
Exactly ?
Couldn’t of said it better myself.
The addiction to buying things. The promotion of bad things as good. The fear of government. Fear and terror which drives all of this. Entitlement to pleasure all the time. Fear of pain.
We are definitely at war and it’s a spiritual one. A fight for the good, great, and true freedom against progressive evil, mediocrity, and technological tyranny.
Everyone can say no.
And, the irony Piggy, is that when we lose that fear. The fears you mention. The fear of not dying. We will win. Once the fear of not having goes away and we the people stop buying goods. Well, the elites will be the ones to eventually suffer. The elites are just too arrogant to realize this…..
Amen.
And more so, when people realize that death doesn’t impact them, it only impacts those left behind. And when you have nothing to lose, you fear not giving your life so that those you leave behind can have what either was taken from you or you didn’t have in the first place.
As I have gotten older, I have feared death less and less. I am only 43 and don’t fear it anymore. Do I want it, nope, not at all. But I lived a good life doing many good things and those left behind will remember those actions. And, because of that- I won’t ever die.
I say that because I am sure many feel the same. If needed, I will die standing, not on my knees.
Today’s Americans are not made of the same stuff as our Founders.
Sorry, but it’s true.
OK. I see Biden’s solution. He is giving $500,000 to every “migrant” family separated at the border. This will inject massive cash flow into the economy and fix everything.
Too bad about the rest of you suckers.
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/396222.php
Wall Street Journal: Biden Administration In “Talks” To Use US Taxpayer Funds to Give Almost a Half Million to Any Person “Separated from their Families” At the Border in 2018
As noted in the article, this is politically toxic to anyone with a sense of decency and justice. So the left will be for it as well as most RINOs although it is so poisonous they will be afraid to admit it.
Also. It signals that the left no longer has any fear of election consequences. From the same article:
Deb Heine, Dissident @NiceDeb
This is your black pill that elections no longer matter in this country. You don’t do something this politically toxic unless you have future elections locked up.
I agree that the left is acting as if elections are not a concern. They are acting like whatever they do, there will not be any backlash that takes away their power. The left has watched the GOP react to industrial scale vote fraud and they are now certain they have the green light to proceed with abandon.
War and/or gulags are coming. And mass starvation too.
Thats because THEY DO have the green light, from the RNC.
We have watched as the GOPe benefitted from the Steal, countenanced and cooperated WITH it.
So, why WOULDN’T they assume they can continue to steal elections?
Not one of them has suffered any consequences. With such encouragement of course they’ll continue.
Dutch, it’s why I get frustrated when these elites are classified as R and D’s. Doing that just keeps the same train going. I wish more and more people would wake up and realize there is only one party running this country masqueraded as two. It’s the elites and us. The elites have lection fraud down to a science and they control all of the agencies that would be needed to shut them down: The Executive Branch, the Legislative Branch, SCOTUS, State Executive offices, local offices in big cities, MSM commentary, social media control, and in some places local law enforcement.
I don’t know how to get others to see this fact. In discussion with others, it appears based on their responses, some people can’t see that both sides are the same. I always ask during these conversations- if they are different parties why then, when it comes to voting on bills, they always vote for the same programs, programs that only seem to ever steer us to more socialism? They only thing they do is argue about thge amount of prize money. If they were so different, wouldn’t one side be opposed to it based on principal?
No one ever answers that question directly. Never got a direct response. Mainly, I get the not true, ther are always people who oppose bills.
The lack of critical thought in my fellow citizens is scary. Few and far between finding someone who critically thinks.
It’s why I like coming here.
So, exactly, why WOULDN’T they assume they can continue to steal elections. They have it all and that includes some of the electorate too.
The other day I had a conversation with a leftist who I had thought was otherwise intelligent.
I explained that when prices go up, people have less money left over to buy things. You spend the same amount as before but get less stuff. So overall demand goes down.
The guy told me that’s “Trump-o-nomics” and makes no sense. He advised me to read Krugman. I rolled my eyes and gave up.
Leftism and intelligence are mutually exclusive.
Leftism is a worldview that disregards facts and truth.
So is magical thinking a worldview, that somehow things will right themselves.
Trump knows what’s up.
You need an expanding economy to handle the expansion of the dollar.
If you go back to Obamanomics, you instantly get inflation over the Fed approved 2%
Now, here we are.
1% growth (if that) after a decade plus of fed easing (dollar injections).
Trillion dollar stimulus bills won’t fix anything until energy is cheaper, taxes are lowered, and growth matches inflation rates.
“The drop has nothing to do with the ‘delta variant’, and everything -EVERYTHING- to do with inflation and impacts from Joe Biden’s economic policies.”
It has a LOT to do with COVID-19 policies from day one which includes Trump’s time.
Shut down an efficient “just-in-time-delivery” manufacturing system which minimizes required warehouse space and truck parking/unloading spaces now badly needed with supply lines finely tuned for efficiency with fewer, very large for economy of scale sources for essential items, many from China.
Flood the economy with debt-based handouts and unemployment supplements to avoid the economic consequences, in many cases providing people sitting at home with more income than they had when working which spoiled them and especially when those unemployment supplements weren’t ended, dissuading them from returning to work at their previous wage. Result: serious labor shortages with demands for higher wages, leading to supply shortages and higher wages, both leading to inflation.
Those two and other COVID-19 related issues combine to cause massive supply line congestion by creating great demand with lower capacity to supply the demand. Result: shortages and inflation.
The Fed is trapped because if it raises interest rates to fight inflation it crashes the entire, colossal Everything Bubble that has been growing since the last bubble burst, the subprime crisis cause by massive, blatant fraud for which the perps walked.
Pushing on a string…
Shippers Fear “Catastrophic” Fallout From “Crazy” California Port Fees
28 Oct 2021
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shippers-fear-catastrophic-fallout-crazy-california-port-fees
The point of the “Hail Mary” Los Angeles/Long Beach fee plan is to forcibly unclog the terminals and get containers moving faster. The members of NSAC argued that these emergency port fees — as with traditional demurrage and detention fees — are not increasing container velocity given the current supply chain situation.
According to Miller, “I don’t think anybody on this committee would admit to using the port to let containers sit there because they want to. Everybody has the full intention to get these containers out, but they physically can’t.”
Adnan Qadri, director of global imports at Amazon, said, “In the past, the whole idea of detention and demurrage was incentivizing faster turns, returning of equipment and bringing fluidity into the network and the supply chain. But in its current state, the way supply chains are moving right now, I don’t think detention and demurrage are incentivizing anything.
“Folks are not sitting on [container] returns because they want to. They’re sitting on them because they can’t get those containers returned. It is very difficult for us [Amazon] to wrap our heads around the idea of these detention and demurrage charges, which don’t drive any kind of positive behavior [given] the way the supply chain is currently set up.
It’s funny to hear companies like Amazon complain because the government now wants to charge them more fees. I agree with their reasoning but oh well. Companies like Amazon support this BS at the Federal level with their lobbying groups buying favor and gaining legislative support that screws over local and small businesses all the time. Now that these same grubby government hands want to take more of their money- they have an issue
Hey Amazon, you are a company with executives and an owner that helped create this mess….no pity from this guy. Although, I agree with the companies sentiment.
The “efficient “just-in-time-delivery” manufacturing system” is fragile and lacks resiliency. The winnowing of suppliers to single sources and/or geographical political control creates a military and economic stranglehold. That system needs broken and distributed/dispersed so multiple suppliers can provide. This dependency on perfect timing and perfect systems is moronic.
It wasn’t moronic under President Trump’s leadership when everything was productively humming along.
The current problem stems from letting this communist regime destroy capitalism.
Hurts, but it’s true.
Two classes of citizens will weather the disastrous JoeBama economic policies. The federal DC workforce including the politicians (these are the real insurgents) and the illegal immigrants and refugees flooding into our nation. We the people will suffer the consequences. Meanwhile the Marxists are busy with perfecting their vote harvesting and dominion strategy’s.
They may find their country of origin more appealing than America and return home once the free stuff is gone and the shelves remain empty.
They won’t have the money to get home and that’s the one thing this communist government won’t fund.
They want them here to displace us.
There is one thing to factor in, still in our favor friends- well, even two.
First- China is imploding. Their property ripoff is TOTALLY exposed and is going to crush the Yuan like never before. The dollar will be weaker- IS weaker- but, the Yuan is going to bottom out. They may well go into revolution, before us.
Second- the Jab is designed to get rid of their own voters- they didn’t see it coming, they’re so greedy.
The diabetic, weak, un-needed MSM nipple fed will be the first to go. As the immune-deiciency comes in… the people (and states, like Florida) that have RESISTED outright mandates and even pushed back against the very fear of Covid- will win, BIG time.
And the cesspools like Illinois, Jersey, California and more who have PUSHED it so bad- are going to find that they killed off their own voting populace. The jabs and the ripoffs are destroying their own people. The unions are turning on them, now- so is they ENTRENCHED (real!) military. It’s on.
Their BIG hope is the illegal invasion- which is ALSO their own exposed artery. It is angering people on EVERY side of the political spectrum and the more it is shone in the light- the more they lose.
It’s going to be very rough. Please be prepared. But, do NOT lose hope. Their own greed has burned their OWN backsides.
“First- China is imploding. Their property ripoff is TOTALLY exposed and is going to crush the Yuan like never before.”
Which explains their recent hostile moves against Taiwan, the source of 92% of the world’s most advanced electronic “chips.” If they seize THAT capability combined with their monopolies on so many things they already have, they own the future.
As some actual China experts who have long seen them as the sinister force they have always been have recently warned, they may see now as their now or never window of opportunity to move on Taiwan.
On their internal economic problems, it is believed they’ll bail out domestic investors, but foreign investors will get screwed which will be what they deserve in my opinion, but that would lead to reduction in foreign investment in China. So, like us they’re also in a lose/lose situation.
CCP can take Taiwan anytime they want. Getting a green light from JoBama / Sorus is just the “cherry-on-top”. Plus,
(a) CCP needs diversion from domestic,
(b) logistics requirements from Allies a big negative, and,
(c) most importantly, “The Joe & Ho Circus” too busy destroying America (plus Joe sold out America to the Chi-Coms a long time ago)
Taiwan spends less of its GDP on defense than we do.
Their all-volunteer military is puny. I see them folding fast.
Maybe they’ll go for the best Finlandization position they can negotiate for themselves..
The massive drop in our economy is feature,not a bug, of Biden’s admin.
There is no intention of working for anything other than its complete destruction.
The communist long plan all along.
We went from MAGA to Meta … im tock tock at a time.
No, I don’t know what Maga has to do with the rebranded Facebook.
Meta is Facebook.
I got a long-term Dow Jones Industrial Average technical sell signal. I haven’t seen this sell signal since January 2020. January sell signal was followed by a buy signal April 2020 until the present sell signal.
IMO, the Stock Market has been grossly manipulated by the “Powers that be” to artificially support the present Communist/Fascist/ Totalitarian Biden administration. Can you imagine as to what now is visual Swamp unraveling, plus people’s retirement, the fear Americans would be “feeling” about now?
The question is how long can they keep manipulating the Stock market and maintain their false financial World? I like to think because of the rare long-term sell signal, it won’t be long before they can no longer maintain a Fake manipulated Stock Market.
Good write-up. When market caves, it will be blamed on the non-VAXed populations not allowing full recovery from COVID-19 (Fausi / Chi-Com BioWeapon). Has anyone checked Fausi’s bank accounts?
I know we’re not officially in a recession, but it sure seems like one.
Didn’t all the Dems wanted to tank the economy when Trump was in office? Be careful what you wish for.
Many on here have seen good and bad economic times. On this site we do try to live our best life but rarely have we been in a period where the future seems such a mystery. In the last 9 months this imitation president and the people calling the shots every major decision has had the worst possible outcome for the majority of people who value freedom. And this is with the media and the wh lying about the facts of most the results of these decisions. 500 americans still left in afgh. This is unprecidented I am in preservation mode and my wife and I have never been overtspenders.i used to joke that I always wanted my last check to bounce. Fuel and food have certainly increased and fortunately have little effect . Being closer to our expiration dates certainly seems to be a positive.Pray and try to stay positive though it can be challenging.
This is classic Obama economics, remember the outlandish statement Obama made that the good times are behind us 1 to 2% GDP growth will be the new normal. Then came President Trump, and truly proved Obama wrong. We’ll know her we are, Trump forced out of office, Obama/Biden installed again, and watch the economy tank once again.
The only question I have will this administration destroy our economy/nation so badly we can not recover.
Destroy the US economy and get a raise from my boss.
Chairman Joe!
This is boom town compared to what’s coming.
You’ve GOT to have growth to absorb the dollar injections.
Trump knew that.
Reducing corporate taxes fueled growth. So did shit canning regulatory over reach, and expanding energy development.
Damn the environmentalists and warm earthers!
Weve got an economy to run here.
FBO.
Just think- Joe “Syphilis Rotted Brains” Biden did all this in only 10 months: wrecked America. But wait theres more! Now he plans to give every illegal alien mentally damage by President Trump for being kicked back across the border $450 thousand dollars! Isnt that cool? How much did he give YOU?
Here’s a novel idea….what if….JoeBama stopped stepping on the necks of the middle class and small businesses with thousands of regulations?
I mean, it’s not like we’ve not seen this film already. In fact, in this 3rd Obama term, we’re seeing what we saw in his first 2 in terms of overall economic performance; it’s abysmal…yet they’re shocked?
Obama averaged 3,000 NEW regulations a year for 8 years, cratered economic growth in the process which ENDED at 2%; the worst ‘recovery’ in 60 years…
It’s primarily why, under JoeBama, the Democrats lost 1,032 state and federal seats 2010 mid-terms, one of the worst beatings the Dem-Tards have ever taken, and was also the genesis of The Tea Party and drove such wide-spread campaign success for Trump (who then grew the entire economic pie, especially for latino’s and blacks).
Yet here we are again with JoeBama and their 15lb Marxist sledge hammer, wrecking everything they touch…but it’s “unexpected“…. got it.
As I read elsewhere:
Elections have consequences, fraudulent elections have catastrophic consequences.
We are in an “Obama” 3rd term because of fraud. But, most here know to understand this fact. Most though, don’t make the connection that this is an “Obama” 3rd term. A large majority of Americans don’t understand that the majority of FJB’s staff, appointees, and nominees are the same people that were in the Obama WH.
Mark Twain said “an expert is anyone 50 miles from home” others have punned an “ex-pert, is just a former spurt.
HOW long can these people continue to claim they are “experts” on financial matters, when their Political bias obviously impedes their ability to understand whsts going on with the economy?
For four years, they were constantly “Surprised!” and even AMAZED at the Trump economy, whoch consistently exceeded their expectations.
NOW, they are just as SURPRISED! that the Biden economy, consistently MISSES their expectations.
So, they get a “C” for consistency, and an “F” for accuracy….THIS is what “experts” our Universities are producing.
And poor forecasting skills would not underestimate republicans and over estimate dems. So they are all just propagandists, and not forecasters at all any more.
Dutch, I laughed when I read this because it’s true.
It’s not just the financial experts. It’s with all of these “experts” they put on the MSM roundabout: lawyers, doctors, economic, and even the sports news experts.
The populous causes me to doubt this at times, but there are some brilliant people in this country. Including a lot of people who frequent this site, myself included. Many of us are more knowledgable or just as knowledgable as those “experts.” We can see the data, read a report, etc. and understand the issues at hand. Yet, these experts stare at the screen and spew forth words. The words don’t have to say anything; instead, they say words to add credence to their words to explain their words better.
And, when as a thinking person, you address this in conversation with others, you get: what do you know? They are an expert you are not; I’ll take their word over a non-expert. It matters not how disconnected the expert is and how easily it can be shown.
And now after hours, Amazon and Apple stock prices are plunging on misses from both. The darlings of Wall Street. Also advancing with each quarterly earnings report.
Everything goes on…until it doesn’t.
Time for the corrupt money to clean up on the stupid money.
Extremely decent odds tomorrow is the 1929 crash all over again. With Vanguard and Blackrock and Warren Buffet and George Soros waiting on the sidelines with tons of cash to pick up stocks dirst cheap as the retirement accounts get wiped out.
Unless . . . Bitcoin and crypto have changed the game enough that it’s just the end of the Petrodollar as the world reserve currency and the Fed goes broke. It is wrapped into the US Treasury now. Maybe the US goes bust. Like Zimbabwe.
Who knows.
Catastrophic Q4 coming after massive unvaxed firings.
Major uptick in civil unrest in 2022 coming. Parallel society forming.
Robert Barnes has links on his Locals channel for jobs not requiring the jab.
https://vivabarneslaw.locals.com/upost/1169836/job-sites-listing-open-jobs-w-no-vax-mandates
Oh, the tragedy of treadmills.- Jen Psaki
I detest these CNN clips. They are disgusting. But I cannot stop myself from watching. Kinda like when the dog snacks from the cat’s litter box.
Plastics prices up.
This one was pretty obvious as I’ve noticed for a couple months that things I’ve never seen like:
1) Bread bag ripping open on the end that should be closed
2) Frozen foods packed in plastic bags full of holes once you get it out of the cardboard box
3) water bottle so flimsy you can’t get the thing open without losing some of the water
etc.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/business/2021/10/1/22704697/chemical-shortage-industrial-chemicals-higher-prices-paints-plastics
Americans have become so accustomed to using plastic packing materials – that worked- for so many decades now. It’s gonna be a learning curve.
Few years ago thickness of store-used plastic bags was thinned out. As a consumer, tired of the “thinner” bags breaking, had to use 2 or 3 bags instead of one
Doing anything to “save the environment” ! / Sarc. Thanks Al Gore (I’ve been Gored).
“The top line number of two percent GDP growth is significantly worse than most economists and financial pundits expected.”
REALLY??!! SERIOUSLY??!! Most MAGA people saw it coming before the ink was dry last quarter. Sundance certainly did.