MAGAnomics – Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 8,000 – Main Street Employment Remains Very Strong…

Unemployment claims dropped by 8,000 last week showcasing a very strong job market for all sectors of employment.  The U.S. Dept of Labor Report shows continued strong jobs growth surprising most economic pundits.

(DOL Report – pdf page 4)

(Reuters) – The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with strong labor market conditions and continued job growth.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 211,000 for the week ended Nov. 2, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 1,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims would fall to 215,000 in the latest week.  (read more)

Additionally, in a related Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report unit labor costs increased to 3.6% with a 3.3% increase attributed to increased wage costs.  This is a key metric.

The U.S. economy has started the process of re-coupling economic activity to the labor market.  This is going to be a key to watch moving forward. Watch closely…. Within this process the wage and benefit aspect to the production cost will now start to influence the output costs of the finished product, natural inflation.

Aggregate U.S. inflation has been heavily influenced by import prices dropping, a result of EU and Asian internal activity to offset tariffs, and the strength of the U.S. dollar.  In essence we have been importing deflation.  This process has been ongoing for more than two years.  [CTH predicted this outcome back in 2015.]

However, U.S. imports are now slowing…. and U.S. consumers are purchasing more products, finished goods, from within the U.S internal economic system [(manufacturing and production (which includes restaurants)].   As the percentage of total economic growth upticks from internal U.S. activity, and a higher percentage of overall GDP is internal to the U.S. economy, natural wage growth will begin generate inflation.

Do not be surprised to see this current quarter (Q4) when measured in late January 2020, showing the first significant increases in inflation.  Bookmark my prediction of 0.5% added to inflation in this current quarter we are in (Oct-Dec 2019).

Right now year-over-year wages are growing between 3.0 and 3.6%.  Output costs are now (re-coupling phase) starting to increase slightly more than wage growth, 3.3% just reported.   Natural inflation will now start to kick-in, domestic prices reconnected to wages.

Inflation has been running around 1.5% with slight ups and down relating to external dynamics (EU/China devaluation, subsidies etc.).  The international community has fired their main cannons, they have nothing left to defend against tariffs and policies that bring the production economy back to the U.S.

We should now start to see inflation growth due to internal dynamics.   Watch now as the Main Street engine is re-coupled and we’ll start to see inflation at two percent and more.

This is the beginning, the very beginning, of a return to natural economic cycles.

There are going to be many connected smaller economic elements yet to be settled. However, in the big picture the apex has been reached.  We are in the period of pause, where U.S. multinationals have to make a decision.  Either they remain overseas and face higher overall costs to bring their products to the U.S. market; or they return to an economic system that has now been reset to be competitive and more predictable.

We will watch it unfold together.

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This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Big Government, Donald Trump, Election 2020, energy, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

31 Responses to MAGAnomics – Weekly Jobless Claims Drop 8,000 – Main Street Employment Remains Very Strong…

  1. vikingmom says:

    During the previous administration the economic news was always “unexpectedly” bad, and then later revised even further down but the lower number was never publicized or explained …now, the economic news is always “unexpectedly” good and is revised upward later, again with no mention about why it was so different.

    But no, the MSM has no agenda! /sarc

    Liked by 14 people

  2. Scott says:

    Job market is so strong that Tillis is co-sponsoring Lee’s H1B visa push and is proud of it.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Reserved55 says:

    The illustration encapsulates it to a tee.

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Pa Hermit says:

    Hard to comprehend how far along America would be IF we had a Congress that had America’s interest at heart! Absolutely astounding that Republicans as a whole don’t get in line with American interests!

    Like

    • A Moderate Man says:

      You are so right, we could accomplish anything and solve everything. Democrats are small-minded, intolerant people with mean hearts.

      Like

    • Your Tour Guide says:

      Imagine what we would’ve had if we had
      received the “peace dividend” after Vietnam,
      instead of being subjected to an endless series
      of undeclared, costly “wars”.

      Including the one on drugs, which I think the
      usual suspects brought upon us for fun, profit,
      and torpedoing any human potential that Vietnam
      didn’t.

      Like

  5. Let Little Miss Lube Rack stick that in her pipe and smoke it.

    Like

  6. wildsailor2018 says:

    Okay, my naive little engineer brain is trying to wrap around the numbers…am I seeing unemployment at 1.2%?

    Like

  7. toocoolus says:

    Still not tired of WINNING!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. FL_GUY says:

    It is no question that the economy under President Trump is doing great. People have jobs and there are always “Now Hiring” signs up. I’ve seen new businesses opening up around here for the first time in years; before, it was watching business after business close down.

    People should be very happy and realize it’s President Trump that has given them back the American dream; we see the real mood of the people with the thousands who attend President Trump rallies. Yet, the D-rats and the media-rats continue to spout divisiveness and hate. The D-rats continue to steal elections using media-rat propaganda as cover.

    I am really tired of all the lies and negative crap that is constantly spewed by the D-rats and media-rats who bury the good news under piles of lies and crap. President Trump has done great things. He is the greatest President in history at this point. Yet, my state of being is assaulted daily by these EVIL people. We can’t feel good for 5 mins. And it’s getting really old. JMHO

    Liked by 2 people

  9. Perot Conservative says:

    1. Pass USMCA.

    2. Not a biggie, but Sundance’s predicted Q3 big GDP prediction didn’t happen. GM strike, Boeing, and international slowdown factors.

    Let’s hope for a strong Q4.

    Like

  10. @ChicagoBri says:

    As President Trump himself would admit, he hasn’t done this – rather he has established the conditions wherein WE have done this. In this, he remains the indispensable man.

    Like

  11. Sentient says:

    I just watched a clip of John McCain’s obnoxious, no-talent daughter chastising Donald Trump Jr over the president’s supposed lack of character. She can take a flying leap, in my opinion – except I don’t think she’s capable of leaping. Looking out for the interests of Americans is issue #1 when it comes to character in a president and President Trump has character in spades compared to that POS father of hers who wanted to use Americans as fodder in endless wars and who didn’t mind at all if the jobs – and very lives – of Americans were endangered by illegal alien invaders. I’d like to slap the false eyelashes off of that little piglet, but that would be unchivalrous.

    Like

  12. Mike in a Truck says:

    Best President of my lifetime. We are finally being freed as slaves of the Globalists. The strip mining of American wealth is coming to an end. Been a long 30 years.

    Liked by 1 person

  13. In the run up to the election next year, the Dems will do everything possible to destroy this economy. They know it’s what will get DJT reelected. Watch for what I expect to be an all out assault on business, trade, banking, etc. IMHO, of course.

    Like

  14. INFLATION TRENDS:
    President Trump will RELENTLESSLY work CONTROLLABLE DRIVERS to keep a lid on Inflation.

    1 – ENERGY costs will be suppressed with expanding supply.
    • LNG facilities will continue to multiply.
    • Permian Basin output will massively increase as new pipeline capacity comes online.
    • POTUS opened the Arctic Wildlife Preserve to new drilling.
    • POTUS opened California land to new drilling.
    • Any relief for suppressed foreign production will push prices lower (Syria, Iran, Venezuela, etc.)

    2 – PRESCRIPTION DRUG & HEALTHCARE costs are beginning to DECREASE.
    • Multiplied Generic approvals & accelerated approval cycles.
    • Importation of Drugs from lower-price foreign countries.
    • Multiplying Healthcare Plan competition from new Association Plans.

    3 – AGRICULTURE costs will begin to decline.
    • Large increases in production to support Trade Deal Exports.
    • Major reductions in Government Price Supports as Exports consume Supply.
    • Elimination of Government-Stored Product Waste.
    • Elimination of Cartel Control over Supply and Pricing.

    4 – EDUCATION costs may be next.
    • Competition from Charter Schools, Apprenticeship Alternatives, Corporate Re-Skilling.
    • Education Department publication of Hiring Criteria & Excess Supply for Job Classifications.
    • Education Department publication of Expected Income from College Majors & HS Degrees.
    • Reduction in Student Enrollments in low-demand and low-income College Majors.
    • Reduction in College Demand as Labor Shortages force companies to hire High School Grads.
    • Speculation: Requirements for colleges to insure their STUDENT DEBT against default.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Robster says:

    I hope it works. Recent data (ISM Manufacturing Index) shows manufacturing in a recession….this index (and GDP) is a key performance metric of the success of the policy. As far as inflation is concerned, we can thank the Fed money printing machine.

    Like

  16. A2 says:

    This is I told you so face😉

    This was in response to a poster who said Trump caved”

    A2 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 3:23 am
    No they haven’t. They want the US to commit to getting rid of tariffs before they make a deal.

    What deal? The US caves or we don’t buy pork and beans?

    This is the same old, same old, from the MSM since 2017. So far the President has not caved.

    The President and his team have made it clear. Structural reforms, enforcement provisions. The PRC will not do so. they will only obfuscate. And they have lots of “Americans” on the #GreatChinaPayroll to lobby for them. Huawei a case in point.

    If I know anything at all, I know how Xi and cronies think. I lived there for 35 years.

    Liked by 5 people
    Reply
    A2 says:
    November 7, 2019 at 3:32 am
    And if I may add, the Chinese statement has a lot of ‘ifs’. Don’t buy into the PR campaign.

    China wants a deal, but on their own terms. full.stop.

    Like

  17. A2 says:

    👇👇👇

    This is not just speculation. It is from the FM of the ROC (aka Taiwan).

    Taiwan warns of possible attack if China’s slowdown ‘becomes serious’

    (Excerpt.)

    TAIPEI (Reuters) – Beijing could resort to military conflict with self-ruled Taiwan to divert domestic pressure if a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy amid trade war threatens the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, the island’s foreign minister has said.

    As Taiwan’s presidential elections approach in January, China has stepped up a campaign to “reunify” with what it considers a wayward province, wooing away the island’s few diplomatic allies and flying regular bomber patrols around it.“

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-taiwan-diplomacy-china/taiwan-warns-of-possible-attack-if-chinas-slowdown-becomes-serious-idUSKBN1XH0H5

    Like

  18. NYMinuteman says:

    Vital not to ease up on tariffs unless China makes real and enforceable changes. The country is behind Trump on this. Not the percentage of lowlife globalist scum in the Democrat party, perhaps, but the rest of the country. This is a fight to the finish. China and Hulawei are the enemy. DO NOT RELENT,

    Like

  19. Rynn69 says:

    MAGAnomics update – I am in heaven. TY, Sundance.

    Like

  20. czarowniczy says:

    What I find interesting is how with brick mortar stores closing and predicted to continue to close at a record rate this year the unemployment is still as low as it is. As ecommerce dominates, national stores like K-mart, Sears, Barneys, Fred’s, Walgreens, Payless ShoeSource and many others are either paring back or totally shuttering their stores. In other tires that would be a sure sign of a recession yet unemployment’s staying down and the economy’s chugging right along.

    Wonder how long the Rat social engineers will let this continue, they generally do their best prospering when economic conditions are in the ditch.

    Like

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