This is funny. No, really, it is actually funny. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its outlook of the global economy. If you read the IMF prior “dire forecast” from July 17th –yes, only a week ago– you’ll discover the humor aspect.
The IMF is now upgrading their forecast of U.S. economic growth; and admitting -in essence- that President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A. The increase in their forecast isn’t a small increase, it is essentially adding .3 percent (from 2.3% to 2.6%) or $60 billion more.
However, you’d have to go through two-thirds of the Reuters press coverage of the IMF release; and plow through a littany of doom and gloom; before you found this obscure reference: “The IMF raised its forecast for U.S. economic growth to 2.6% in 2019, but left its 2020 forecast for 1.9% growth unchanged.” Apparently the economic team at Reuters has a sad… harrumph!
Even the Washington Post, despite their earnest efforts, couldn’t actually put a negative spin on the new IMF projection:
(WaPo) The U.S. economy is growing even more rapidly than initially thought, the International Monetary Fund said Thursday, though it warned that President Trump’s trade war could slow momentum.
The U.S. economy is on track to expand by 2.6 percent this year, the IMF predicted, up from its April forecast of 2.3 percent growth. The increase is largely the result of a better-than-expected start to the year and the Federal Reserve signaling it is likely to lower interest rates.
“The revision to 2019 growth reflects stronger-than-anticipated first quarter performance,” the IMF wrote in its World Economic Outlook, adding that the Fed’s “dovish tilt” has “helped markets regain their poise.”
Last year, the U.S. economy grew at nearly 3 percent. The White House forecasts the nation will hit that level again, but the vast majority of independent economists predicts that growth will cool as the stimulus from the tax cuts begin to wear off. If the IMF projection is correct, it would still be a strong year. (read more)
OK…. So the IMF, which is euro-centric, increases the projected U.S. economic growth for 2019 to 2.6 percent. They then go on to warn everyone else, that globally the world economy is in a position of weakening, or shrinking etc; and you won’t be surprised at the reason for their negative global forecast. Of course it’s horrible Trump and his strategic trade reset that’s to blame. Grumble, grumble, grumble.
However, let me just remain focused on the U.S. growth projection for a moment…. We already know the 2018 U.S. GDP result was +3.1 percent. So it is worth looking back to 2017 and see what the IMF was projecting for the U.S. in 2018 to see their rate of accuracy:
July 24, 2017 – “The IMF now projects the U.S. economy will grow at a rate of 2.1 percent in both 2017 and 2018, it said in its July update to the World Economic Outlook. In its previous estimate issued in April, the organization predicted the U.S. economy would grow at 2.3 percent in 2017 and 2.5 percent in 2018.
“Over the next two years, U.S. growth should remain above its longer-run potential growth rate. But we have reduced our forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 to 2.1 percent because near-term U.S. fiscal policy looks less likely to be expansionary than we believed in April,” wrote Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist.” (link)
Whoopsie!
The IMF projected 2018 U.S. growth at 2.1% and the actual result was U.S. growth at 3.1%.
Not only did the IMF miss that projection ball-park, they missed the city and state where the ball-park was located. Missing a forecast for the worlds largest economy ($20 Trillion) by a full percentage point is like a geography expert standing on the equator and pointing North to identify the location of the South Pole. Yes, it is that ridiculous.
All of that said, the strength of the U.S. economy, and specifically the focused growth that is happening ONLY because U.S. President Donald Trump is directing our economy, is entirely an outcome of Trump policy that reverses decades of neglectful stewardship by prior politicians who controlled trade and economic policy.
What they did was purposeful.
Indeed, these MAGAnomic results are a big part of the reason why the globalists hate him.
In the bigger picture this is why President Trump is the most transformative economic President in the last 75 years. The post-WWII Marshall Plan was set up to allow Europe and Asia to place tariffs on exported American industrial products. Those tariffs were used by the EU and Japan to rebuild their infrastructure after a devastating war. However, there was never a built in mechanism to end the tariffs…. until President Trump came along and said: “it’s over”!
After about 20 years (+/-), say 1970 to be fair, the EU and Japan received enough money to rebuild. But instead of ending the one-way payment system, Asia and the EU sought to keep going and build their economies larger than the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. was carrying the cost of protecting the EU (via NATO) and Japan with our military. The EU and Japan didn’t need to spend a dime on defense because the U.S. essentially took over that role. But that military role, just like the tariffs, never ended. Again, until Trump.
The U.S. economy was the host for around 50 years of parasitic wealth exfiltration, or as most would say “distribution”. [Note I use the term *exfiltration* because it better highlights that American citizens paid higher prices for stuff, and paid higher taxes within the overall economic scheme, than was needed.]
President Trump is the first and only president who said: “enough”, and prior politicians who didn’t stop the process were “stupid” etc. etc. Obviously, he is 100% correct.
For the past 30 years the U.S. was a sucker to keep letting the process remain in place while we lost our manufacturing base to overseas incentives. The investment process from Wall Street (removal of Glass-Stegal) only made the process much more severe and faster. Wall Street was now investing in companies whose best bet (higher profit return) was to pour money overseas. This process created the “Rust Belt”, and damn near destroyed the aggregate manufacturing industry.
Fast forward to 2017 through today, and President Trump is now engaged in a massive and multidimensional effort to re-balance the entire global wealth dynamic. By putting tariffs on foreign imports he has counterbalanced the never-ending Marshal Plan trade program and demanded renegotiation(s). Trump’s goal is reciprocity; however, the EU and Asia, specifically China, don’t want to give up a decades-long multi-generational advantage. This is part of the fight.
One could argue that China’s rise happened inside this period, and as a consequence they have no comprehension of an economic history without the institutional advantages. They’ve never competed with the U.S. under any terms of equivelence or fairness; they’ve only ever known the advantages. Combine that with the Chinese communist mindset and you get the extreme severity of their position.
So yeah, there’s going to be pain – for them; massive economic pain – as the process of reestablishing a fair trading system is rebuilt. This dynamic is the essence of reciprocity that benefits Main Street USA. Unfortunately, putting ‘America First’ is now also against the interests of the multinationals on Wall Street; so President Trump has to fight adverse economic opponents on multiple fronts…. and their purchased mercenary army we know as DC politicians.
No-one, ever, could take on all these interests. Think about it… The EU, Asia, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, China, Russia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Iran, U.S. Congress, Democrats, U.S. Senate, Wall Street, the Big Club, Lobbyists, Hollywood, Corporate Media (foreign and domestic), and the ankle-biters in Never Trump…. All of these financial interests are aligned against Main Street USA and against President Trump.
Name one individual who could take them on simultaneously and still be winning, bigly.
They say he’s one man. They say they have him outnumbered. Yet somehow, as unreal as it seems, he’s the one who appears to have them surrounded.
Incredible.
Lord knows we can’t spare this man.
He fights!
.
…. And why we will keep on winning.














Oh but wait, Elizabeth Warren predicted the last economic disaster and is predicting one for the near-future, and her groupies moan they will be paying more for all the goodies imported here from China, which will wipe out the few dollars tax breaks individuals got this year. And besides, it was Obama who set the wheels in motion to make our economy good right now. How would they know reality when MSM never reports it? Trump tweeting it means nothing, because he still is an illegitimate President, according to most of the Liberals.
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As I recall, under MAObama, we would have needed to accept 1% growth, or even lower, and higher unemployment and lower work-force participation as The New Normal.
Under MAObama, America needed to “manage its long-term decline” into a 17th-rate country, a necessary decline because of all of AmeriKKKa’s past crimes.
So…how is this possible?!
It is gratifying to see Fake News struggle with the Truth.
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Her prediction was made in 2010/sarc
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“Elizabeth Warren predicted the last economic disaster and is predicting one for the near-future…”
Yes, if elected President she fully intends to cause that economic disaster.
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Warren predicted the last 28 economic downturns and 2 of them actually happened.
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But this time, if she’s elected she can be right again!
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All these economists are the ones who correctly predicted 37 of the last 12 recessions. And no, that isn’t a typo. Call gloom and doom often enough and like a stopped clock it will occasionally be correct.
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warren is a deep state player
she is a puppet for the one world order,just as obama,bush,and of course the clintons
and their puppet master is the one world order/luciferions/illuminati
12 families rule our world thru their master satan
ancient blood lines with ancient beliefs and their beliefs are child sacrificing and depravity
as we have seen displayed by the ones that are under the satanic control
and they advocate for the most vile immoral disgusting cultures
make no mistake about it
satan is making big moves in this world thru the people that we see today that stand for everything destructive and divisive for our nation and for the world
this is a battle of good vs evil
satan vs GOD
evil knows no bounds
dark to light
imho
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Ya know how “ I “ know the economy has vastly improved?
There were always a bunch of college kids working at the fast food places.
Working just to get by.
Now…….most of them are gone…..
They’ve all gotten jobs….Almost no more college kids at the fast food joints…
And the main reason I noticed is:
Now these places have / are hiring lower level people.
Heck,….now if I order more than one item, they have to have a meeting to decide which bag to put my Big Mac and Fries into.
“Don’t ever go to the Drive Thru”……..Joe Pesci…..Lethal Weapon
But Seriously……Great job Mr. President……You’ve got em surrounded
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I noticed it last year while driving back from dropping my son at college in Chicago. Some of the interstate plaza restaurants were staffed by women who looked like they might of been unemployable in prior years. Good for them, we need everyone working.
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WE must remember that these jobs you speak of are slowly (quickly) being supplanted by machines. Surely you have noticed.
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Observations from a smaller limb.
IMF economic growth projections of 2019 for some of the other places for a bit of comparison.
U.S.: 2.6%
Euro Area: 1.3%
Spain: 2.3%
France: 1.3%
Germany: 0.7%
Italy: 0.1%
Canada: 1.9%
U.K. 1.3%
Japan: 0.8%
😎
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Toast to Ghost!
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WooHoo
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I wonder why Japan is so low ?
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Japan has structural and demographic issues that go back to the 1980’s that have not been corrected. They have smothered their economy with debt service on loans made against wildly inflated collateral, i.e., real estate. Until they allow immigration they are destined for slow stagnation. They are a race in decline. Very sad but no real secret.
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If they had children of their own they wouldn’t need to allow immigration. That is the fundamental issue.
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I wonder why Marxist Spain is so high?
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Perhaps Spain is faring well because they’re not part of the EU, and they aren’t saddled with the onerous obligations that membership demands.
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Spain is part of the EU. The only Western European nations that are not are Norway and Switzerland, IIRC – though the UK may join that list.
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You are absolutely correct, and I am in error. Thank you for informing me.
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American leftists who desire to be like Europe don’t understand that the USA has been underwriting Europe for many decades. Not just militarily. Even Europe’s much envied (by the left) socialized health care system is underwritten by the USA. There is a perception out there that Europe is peaceful because the Europeans at some point became more enlightened. Take away the protective umbrella of the American foreign legion and let’s see how many years the continent remains at peace.
Thus the question I always pose to them is, if we are to become Europe, then who is going to be our America? They don’t seem to know what I’m talking about, because these things are not taught in school or spoken of in the MSM. And never mind their blissful ignorance of Europe’s 2 decade long (and running) economic stagnation.
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He needs to get re-elected to complete the process.
Our economic opponents are playing the smart play — wait out the Trump presidency. First it was, “he will be impeached or resign.” Now, 2020 is just around the corner. The world can hold out until January 2021 when there will be a more reliable partner in the White House. But if he wins in 2020, they will realize they are stuck with him for the next four years and dealing with him is a necessity. This will finally give Trump the opportunity to make this transformation more permanent. This is true on other grounds as well, Iran, deep state prosecution, etc. Trump is the great disrupter. Everyone can wait for the disruption to end in 2020, but no one can hold their breath till 2024. This election is for all the marbles, and Trumps enemies foreign and domestic know what is at stake and will stop at nothing.
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Tommy,
Agree and would add; there is an ADVANTAGE to being term limited, a variation on “they can only hang me, once”.
Every President has more latitude after reelection. He doesn’t have to concern himself with how his actions might impact reelection.
Notice Obamas most agregious Chicago politics operation, using NSA database to spy, started in 2012?
Notice how his pen and phone rule started in 2012?
Similarly, PDJT can be more,…aggressive after reelection in 2020. POSSIBLY in ALL areas, from Trade, and International relations, to immigration, to draining the swamp.
You think he has been moving at a fast pace, so far in promises made, promises kept? You ain’t seen NOTHING yet! PDJT is goung to be hearing a clock ticking; he ONLY has 4 years, to accomplish as much as he can, and he will be moving at light speed!
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Street recon, KC, MO last week: Yungun’s schooling on MS degrees understand that VSG is making their future much better. 2017 BS grads had it rough, but are now getting good positions. Sample set: 12.
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Has the motivation to allow and continue this “bleeding” of our country been mainly to destroy it?
Or, did they think the “free lunch” would survive forever?
Or, was it easier for the globalist to operate that way, and fill their pockets with less effort?
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Never assume malignity when short-sighted self-interest is a reasonable explanation. Malignity takes much more work.
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All one has to do to jump the needle from “self-interest” to “malignity” is look at the FBI/DOJ.
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Indeed. Malignity IS their interest.
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Eventually the Democrats will give up on Russia, and switch to a tactic that worked in the past.
Trying to cause a recession, like they did with Bush.
A Congressman is on record saying that they need a recession to get rid of Trump.
Although it may be harder to do with Trump than it was with Bush.
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Coming Attraction: RAMIFICATIONS
[Massive KUDOS to Sundance – particularly his brilliant Marshall-Plan Insights!]
President Trump continues to ratchet up PRESSURE on counterparts who
• Continue WRONG-DOING … China, Rogue States, Trading Partners with Barriers & Tariffs
• Delay TRADE DEALS … China, EU & Every Other Trading Partner
• Need access to USA MARKETS … All of the Above
• Import MIDEAST ENERGY … China, EU, Japan, India, etc.
• Need USA PROTECTION of Sea Lanes … Energy Importers
• Need USA PROTECTION from Iran … Energy Exporters
• Need access to USA DEFENSE EQUIPMENT … Everyone who fears Communists & Islamists
PARASITIC CHINA pursues NEW ECONOMIC HOSTS with a vengeance:
• EU Countries
• Belt & Road Countries
• Resource-Rich African Countries
• Leadership-Poor Americas Countries
EXFILTRATION MULTIPLIES for Host-Countries’ Resources, Industry, IP and Wealth
… Causing them to turn to America in DESPERATION.
POTUS WINS with “AMERICA FIRST”:
• They buy our Defense Equipment … but that’s NOT ENOUGH.
• They fund our Defense Alliances … covering our Bases, Troops & Equipment in Host Nations
• They pay for Sea Lane Escorts … against Iranian [and Chinese & Russian] Disruption
• They buy our Energy Exports … to avoid Mideast Instability & gain Supply/Price Stability
• They pay Trade Tariffs … until they drop Barriers and Tariffs in favor of Trade-Deal Reciprocity
• The USA Economy SOARS … as Globalists & Foreigners discover our MASSIVE UPSIDE
… as the “Most Hospitable Environment” for Investment on the PLANET.
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Retitled:
Trump’s Global-Leadership RAMIFICATIONS
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Most important: Put Ukraine in preferred Country status. They will destroy Russia by economy then.
For good.
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Over eight years from 2009 – ’16, under the simpering BHO America’s economy grew at a geometric annual rate of 1.83% per annum, never exceeding 2.70% (2014). From 4-Qtr-16, Trump Prosperity has bootstrapped GDP from $18.979 to $20.332 trillion (est. 2-Qtr-19; Fed figures are due out this coming Friday, July 26th), an increase of $1.353 trillion (7.13%) over ten (10) quarters.
Compounding at 3.108% per annum over 30 months, Trump’s record accordingly outdoes Gangrengous’ lumpen Rat growth-rate of 1.834% PA over eight years by 1.699 : 1, an altogether astounding figure proportionately exceeding every competing country’s since 4-Qtr-16.
Practical-political consequences of this aside, the prevailing 85-year old Keynesian monetarist consensus –based on Big Gummint dirigiste largesse plus Bretton Woods’ elevation of the U.S. Dollar as a gold-backed Reserve Currency ’til Nixon fatally abrogated bullion exchange @ $35 per ounce in 1971– is due for doctrinaire comeuppance.
From so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) on down, not one of some ten dozen recently polled senior academic economists disputed generational theft via worthless promissory (deficit-spending) obligations, parroting Keynes’ outlook that Public (sovereign) Debt is a non-issue, not only because fiat scrip can deflate its worth to zero but because –voila!– “we owe it to ourselves”. (Of course, this “we” does not include those yet unborn, a goodly number of whom will be aborted post-partum anyway).
So… amidst all else, let’s wait-and-see how long ossified collectivist-Statists of Keynes’ “Cloud Nine” variety take to register Trump’s demonstrated New Reality. As anthropogenic CO2 charlatans constantly assert, “consensus validates hypotheses”– except that tides of theory fail before one sand-grain of fact. Dating from the last 36-year socio-cultural inflection-point in AD 2004, we give this reigning Beansprout Consensus another twenty years before Millennials’ functioning upper quintile (born 1990, Class of 2012) peaks at age 58 in AD 2048.
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Sundance writes:
“All of that said, the strength of the U.S. economy, and specifically the focused growth that is happening ONLY because U.S. President Donald Trump is directing our economy, is entirely an outcome of Trump policy that reverses decades of neglectful stewardship by prior politicians who controlled trade and economic policy.
What they did was purposeful.”
Why even use the word ‘neglectful’ if it was indeed intentional? Let’s call a spade a spade: prior US administrations were purposefully tanking the US economy…
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Thankfully, Donald Trump is our President. One man changed the entire dynamic of the USA economy. … If Hillary or Jeb Bush were our President, >workers in the USA would be like people walking in deep mud.
……. “What they did was purposeful.” = This sentence might be part of a few following sentences. =
“In the bigger picture this is why President Trump is the most transformative economic President in the last 75 years. The post-WWII Marshall Plan was set up to allow Europe and Asia to place tariffs on exported American industrial products. Those tariffs were used by the EU and Japan to rebuild their infrastructure after a devastating war. However, there was never a built in mechanism to end the tariffs…. until President Trump came along and said: “it’s over”!
After about 20 years (+/-), say 1970 to be fair, the EU and Japan received enough money to rebuild. But instead of ending the one-way payment system, Asia and the EU sought to keep going and build their economies larger than the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. was carrying the cost of protecting the EU (via NATO) and Japan with our military. The EU and Japan didn’t need to spend a dime on defense because the U.S. essentially took over that role. But that military role, just like the tariffs, never ended. Again, until Trump.
The U.S. economy was the host for around 50 years of parasitic wealth exfiltration, or as most would say “distribution”. [Note I use the term *exfiltration* because it better highlights that American citizens paid higher prices for stuff, and paid higher taxes within the overall economic scheme, than was needed.]
President Trump is the first and only president who said: “enough”, and prior politicians who didn’t stop the process were “stupid” etc. etc. Obviously, he is 100% correct.”
*****************************************************
Many of the politicians, Wall Street billionaires, and their supporters are just >first interested in >their own wealth. They just did NOT give America and the American worker much consideration. = Trump changed the dynamic with Make >America Great Again with his America First policies.
Trump’s message is NOT something new. It’s a return to a sincere appeal for supporting our >Nation, which was once made by Democratic politicians, too. … John Kennedy could say, ““Ask not what your country can do for you – ask what you can do for your country,” He asked this of ALL Americans.
Donald Trump is also speaking to ALL Americans with his America First speeches.
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MSM, Democrats, and never-Trumpers:
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9 NOV 2016 – 7:47PM
Paul Krugman predicts a global recession after Trump’s win http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2016/11/09/paul-krugman-predicts-global-recession-after-trumps-win
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this Paul Krugman? https://whyevolutionistrue.wordpress.com/2010/09/24/krugman-on-republican-obstructionism/paul-krugman-and-the-not-dead-cat/
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“…independent economists predict that growth will cool as the stimulus from the tax cuts begins to wear off…”
This doesn’t make sense since the tax cuts aren’t going away any time soon. What am I missing?
Also, none of this takes into account the likely passage of the USMCA by the end of this year. That won’t help the EU and China, but #MAGA and #KAG!
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Cheetah, a particularly rediculous statement, given the MAIN part of the stimulas was from CORPORATE tax cuts, and repatriation of offshored corporate funds.
Those moneys have and are being invested in manufacturing plants, which take several years to get up and running. Hence the first ones started are just beginning to come on line, now.
And, you have the opportunity zones, $10’s of billions of dollars that are capital gains exempt, if reinvested in substantive projects.
They are flat wrong, SO wrong. This economy is just getting started, and the fed can apply the brake, but they can’t stop it, or derail it.
In fact, apply the breaks for too long, while simultaneously putting the pedal to the metal, you burn out the breaks.
If Fed keeps it up, they may well expose the fallacy of HAVING Central banks.
As MAGAnomics progresses, and their biased projections are shown to be consistently WRONG, they become irrelevant.
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He may be one man but he has God behind him
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“If God be for us, who can be against us?”
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My most sincere kudos to Sundance. In the byzantine world of economic-speak, he says things in the most profoundly understandable way. I’m a college graduate with a BS in Mathematics yet the language gets too complicated for me most times. So I tip my hat to you, Sundance, and urge you to continue! And to President Trump – nothing and no one compares to your MAGA mind. I am in awe……
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Read some Murray Rothbard. He could cut through the BS…
Most economics is intentionally made to sound complicated. It really isn’t…
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AMEN.
100% FACT.
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So you’re saying wealth redistribution is bad! But what happens if all the DC Swamp knows how to do is redistribute wealth?
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You get wealth exfiltration. And the exfiltrators need to earn their keep . . .
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MAGA! This is great news.
I’m an old, ignorant cuss so I don’t always understand all of the economic data out there. When I want to see how the “economy” is really doing, I just take an afternoon and go driving on the nearest interstate highway. Semi after semi truck abound, mile after mile. When goods are shipping……the economy is chugging along.
Thank you President Trump!
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Working people from my generation, I’m 61, to the present day have been deliberately economically strangled by the Chamber of Crony Capitalists, Wall Street Banksters, and other assorted Deep State Never Trumpers.
Who can forget this revealing piece of reptilian depraved indifference. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/working-class-whites-have-moral-responsibilities-defense-kevin-williamson/
This is what these bastards think of us. Getting even isn’t good enough, not after 30+ years of lost jobs, lost opportunities, lost financial security & prosperity for our families. Broken homes, divorce, drug & alcohol addiction, etc.. perpetuated by their policies. Retirees who scrimped and saved to afford a comfortable retirement have had the hoped for interest from those savings robbed by globalist scum such as these and have to work until the day they die.
Well, it’s National Review and it’s ideology that deserves to die.
These people are our mortal enemies, treat them accordingly. Vote and advocate for America First like your lives depended on it, because they do.
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Can Americans ever return to the pre- Trump status quo that the E.U.,China, K St., Wall St. etc have grown fat on at the expense of the U.S. Taxpayer? This is what terrifies THEM the most.We always knew deep down,and sometimes on the surface that we were being taken for suckers
by our “allies”and “trading partners.” The jig is up.But that wont stop them from trying to force all this back down our throats when PDJT is gone.This is why THEY want us disarmed.
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“President Trump’s America-First agenda is relocating global wealth back to the primary host nation known as the U.S.A.”
It’s more like capital FLIGHT from the rest of the poorly performing world by those in search of ANY yield. It’s the least dirty shirt in the laundry basket effect, not an “everything is wonderful and will last forever” in the DEBT funded US economic uptick.
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Love me some Kudlow! Always puts a smile on my face.
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“They say he’s one man. They say they have him outnumbered.”…
President Trump:
😄
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I don’t see how you could read this article and not conclude that Our President is Providential, of the same order of magnitude as the other major inflection points in our entire history – our founding, the Civil War, the World Wars, the Cold War…
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No doubt. PDJT’s saga will put Homer to shame.
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Liz Peek pointed out last night (radio) that the good news re: IMF elevating projected U.S. GDP growth was intentionally NOT mentioned by the day-time economic programs like CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, etc.
More deliberate manipulation by Fake News.
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Three Cheers For Sundance!! You called it 3 years ago. You are the best!! I would appreciate more articles on your thinking of what the economy and stock market will do going forward.
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Our President is one man, and yet he has them surrounded (and makes it look easy)-! All of doesn’t seem to be aging him, in fact he looks like he’s actually getting younger in the office…it must be God’s blessings manifested.
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Debt. Control the deficit. Please understand what that means.
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Time to stop being welfare for the rest of the world. If they would like instructions on Capitalism, just ask.
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