An article from Reuters discussing the position of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is interesting. Essentially the IMF is warning that “global economies” will contract by $455 billion next year due to the ongoing trade conflict between the U.S., China, the EU and to a lesser extent, Japan. Yes Alice, there are hundreds of billions at stake.
There’s really no reason to doubt the amount estimated, though I think it’s on the short side, but the yearly value seems in line. I have no doubt President Trump will cost the “Global Economy” $455 billion…. because that money will be transferring back to the America First economy. That’s what happens as MAGAnomics reverses the IMF trade (wealth distribution) model.
The IMF is correct in part (the effect), incorrect in part (the cause), and mostly hypocritical. The Euro-minded IMF rails against the high value of the U.S. dollar, but simultaneously ignores the motives behind the intentional devaluation of currencies that are pegged against the dollar.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday the U.S. dollar was overvalued by 6% to 12%, based on near-term economic fundamentals, while the euro, the Japanese yen and China’s yuan were seen as broadly in line with fundamentals.
The IMF has been at odds with U.S. President Donald Trump over his use of tariffs to resolve trade imbalances, but its assessment that the dollar is overvalued is likely to give Trump more fodder for his frequent complaints that dollar strength is hampering U.S. exports.
Trump has railed against European and Chinese policies that lead to what he calls a devaluation of the euro and other currencies against the dollar.
[…] The Fund – which has warned that the U.S.-China trade war could cost the global economy about $455 billion next year – said recent trade policy actions were weighing on global trade flows, eroding confidence, and disrupting investment. But they had done nothing to reverse external imbalances thus far. (read more)
China and the EU have devalued their currency in an effort to block the impacts from President Trump and the ‘America First’ trade policy. Because those currencies are pegged against the dollar, the resulting effect is a rising dollar value. In essence, the globalist IMF is now blaming President Trump for having a strong economy that forces international competition to devalue their currency.
That’s the stupid hypocrisy of global banking outlooks. They make a decision to devalue their currency, which causes the dollar value to rise, and then turn around and blame the U.S. dollar for being overvalued.
The root cause of the devaluation is unaddressed in their argument. The EU and China are trying to retain their global manufacturing position and offset the impact of President Trump’s tariffs by lowering the end value of their exports.
In the bigger picture this is why President Trump is the most transformative economic President in the last 75 years. The post-WWII Marshall Plan was set up to allow Europe and Asia to place tariffs on exported American industrial products. Those tariffs were used by the EU and Japan to rebuild their infrastructure after a devastating war. However, there was never a built in mechanism to end the tariffs…. until President Trump came along and said: “it’s over”!
After about 20 years (+/-), say 1970 to be fair, the EU and Japan received enough money to rebuild. But instead of ending the one-way payment system, Asia and the EU sought to keep going and build their economies larger than the U.S. Additionally, the U.S. was carrying the cost of protecting the EU (via NATO) and Japan with our military. The EU and Japan didn’t need to spend a dime on defense because the U.S. essentially took over that role. But that military role, just like the tariffs, never ended. Again, until Trump.
The U.S. economy was the host for around 50 years of parasitic wealth exfiltration, or as most would say “distribution”. [Note I use the term *exfiltration* because it better highlights that American citizens paid higher prices for stuff, and paid higher taxes within the overall economic scheme, than was needed.]
President Trump is the first and only president who said: “enough”, and prior politicians who didn’t stop the process were “stupid” etc. etc. Obviously, he is 100% correct.
For the past 30 years the U.S. was a sucker to keep letting the process remain in place while we lost our manufacturing base to overseas incentives. The investment process from Wall Street (removal of Glass-Stegal) only made the process much more severe and faster. Wall Street was now investing in companies whose best bet (higher profit return) was to pour money overseas. This process created the “Rust Belt”, and damn near destroyed the aggregate manufacturing industry.
Fast forward to 2017 through today, and President Trump is now engaged in a massive and multidimensional effort to re-balance the entire global wealth dynamic. By putting tariffs on foreign imports he has counterbalanced the never-ending Marshal Plan trade program and demanded renegotiation(s). Trump’s goal is reciprocity; however, the EU and Asia, specifically China, don’t want to give up a decades-long multi-generational advantage. This is part of the fight.
One could argue that China’s rise happened inside this period, and as a consequence they have no comprehension of an economic history without the institutional advantages. They’ve never competed with the U.S. under any terms of equivelence or fairness; they’ve only ever known the advantages. Combine that with the Chinese communist mindset and you get the extreme severity of their position.
So yeah, there’s going to be pain – for them; massive economic pain – as the process of reestablishing a fair trading system is rebuilt. This dynamic is the essence of reciprocity that benefits Main Street USA. Unfortunately, putting ‘America First’ is now also against the interests of the multinationals on Wall Street; so President Trump has to fight adverse economic opponents on multiple fronts…. and their purchased mercenary army we know as DC politicians.
No-one, ever, could take on all these interests. Think about it… The EU, Asia, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, China, Russia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Iran, U.S. Congress, Democrats, U.S. Senate, Wall Street, the Big Club, Lobbyists, Hollywood, Corporate Media (foreign and domestic), and the ankle-biters in Never Trump…. All of these financial interests are aligned against Main Street USA and against President Trump.
Name one individual who could take them on simultaneously and still be winning, bigly.
They say he’s one man. They say they have him outnumbered. Yet somehow, as unreal as it seems, he’s the one who appears to have them surrounded.
Lord knows we can’t spare this man.