Attorney General William Barr quietly took the oath of office in the oval office today with Chief Justice John Roberts administering and officiating the swearing in. [link]
With the introduction of a fully empowered and confirmed U.S. Attorney General there is likely to be a great deal of speculation about how AG Barr will interact with the seditious conspiracy scandal known collectively as ‘spygate’.
No doubt the tick-tock-boom club will sell more books with declarations of soon to be announced indictments, grand juries, etc. However, as with all political horse trading in DC, the reality of accountability usually falls far away from headline predictions.
Attorney General Barr will be navigating a myriad of high-powered political interests through his office at the Justice Department.
If we presume William Barr is not intending to cover-up for the gross misconduct of the DOJ and FBI, which is a considerable presumption, it will be worth watching how the two camps, Team Obama and Team Clinton, react to the shifted DOJ landscape.
♦ Team Obama consists of: John Brennan, Susan Rice, James Clapper, James Comey, James Rybicki, Loretta Lynch, John Carlin, Samantha Power and all former White House officials.
♦ Team Clinton consists of: ¹Andrew McCabe, ¹Sally Yates, ¹James Baker, ²Mary McCord, ¹Dana Boente, ²David Laufmann, ¹Mike Kortan, ¹Peter Strzok, ¹Lisa Page, ¹Nellie Ohr, ¹Bruce Ohr, ²John Podesta and essentially all of the former DOJ/FBI small group who are also currently operating within the ³Mueller operation and ³Lawfare (Benjamin Wittes) community.
NOTE: Team Clinton has three sub-sets: ¹direct involvement; ²indirect involvement; and ³cover-up.
Each team has unique interests and exposure to the former operations against candidate Donald Trump. Team Obama was more of an assisting co-conspiracy role; and Team Clinton was more of a direct conspiracy/involvement role. Team Clinton has direct legal exposure. Team Obama has indirect legal exposure.
If there is any actual substantive investigation initiated by William Barr:
- Generally speaking Team Obama should be anticipated to remain silent, except for those members who now hold media pundit/analyst positions.
- Generally speaking Team Clinton will be the most visible as their exposure means they have a need to shape the narrative. [ex. Andrew McCabe]
The media supports both teams; however, if they were forced to chose the media would be far more supportive of team Obama.
If there is an inflection point (big “if”), it will likely come as an outcome of someone (McCabe is most exposed) breaking the code of Omerta from Team Clinton and attempting to implicate someone from Team Obama. In that situation U.S. media will defend team Obama and leave team Clinton at risk.
If the “Spygate” fiasco explodes (TBD), it will be team Clinton’s people who will be exposed in the collateral damage. Team Obama will escape with the help of the media and a more favorable DC alliance willing to protect them. Everyone on Team Clinton knows this.
However, all of that said, it would be remarkable if any of the participating members were actually exposed to legal jeopardy. A far more likely outcome is some backroom deal where both teams agree to being criticized, perhaps publicly – perhaps by the Inspector General, but no-one faces legal exposure….
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is then instructed to ditch the impeachment narrative, Mueller gives an unsatisfying report to Barr, and everyone heads into 2020.