5:00am Hurricane Irma – Alert For West Coast Tidal Storm Surge…

Unfortunately the latest update from the National Hurricane Center shows another slight shift westward putting the South and Central West Coast of Florida in the path of immediate concern.  –ADVISORY UPDATE HERE

If you’ve followed along you might have noticed the ‘worst case scenario’ for the West coast of Florida. –Outlined Here–  However, I want to draw your attention to the forecast timing; because there’s a remarkable synergy lining up with Hurricane Donna from 1960.  First here’s the latest NHC forecast map and times:

Timing is critical here.  Between the two “M”‘s [Max Winds] (2pm Sun, and 2am Mon) you might note the geography of the coastal community, shows an inlet.  That inlet is the mouth of the Caloosahatchee River.  Also known as Punta Rassa.

During 1960 Hurricane Donna the Caloosahatchee River dropped significantly as a result of the powerful Westerly winds from approaching Donna and the local tide.   It looks like the exact same thing might happen again:

The maximum Westerly winds (top of the counterclockwise Irma) are forecast to happen during the outgoing tide.  Sunday: High Tide 5:09pm -then- Low Tide at 10:08pm (link) The current forecast timing of the top of Irma, pushing water out to the Gulf of Mexico, coincides with the outgoing river flow.

However, the important part –we continue mentioning– is the backside of the storm where the winds blow in from the West and bring the storm surge.

Unlike Hurricane Irma, in 1960 Hurricane Donna was traveling North East (she made a long loop), and the backside of the storm provided only a tidal rise of 4 to 7 foot storm surge to the Fort Myers/Estero area.  That was indeed damaging though SWFL area was sparsely populated.

WIKI – Early on September 10, Donna made landfall near Marathon, Florida with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h), hours before another landfall south of Naples at the same intensity. Florida bore the brunt of Hurricane Donna. In the Florida Keys, coastal flooding severely damaged 75% of buildings, destroyed several subdivisions in Marathon. On the mainland, 5,200 houses were damaged, which does not include the 75% of homes damaged at Fort Myers Beach; 50% of buildings were also destroyed in the city of Everglades.

Hurricane Irma is forecast to take a more Northerly (directly along the coastline) path.  Which predictably will bring a much stronger backside storm surge.  Unfortunately, that inbound Gulf of Mexico water coincides with the natural inbound tide.

Monday September 11th: High Tide 04:31 am -then- Low Tide at 11:35am (link).

In the time between the Low Tide Sunday at 10:08 pm, and the High Tide Monday at 04:31 am, the strongest of the East bound (on shore) winds are expected.

♦Irma is far more powerful than Donna was in 1960.  Irma is also far larger than Donna was in 1960.  ♦Irma is forecast to follow a much more damaging path along the coast than Donna was in 1960. ♦Donna brought a 7′ storm surge, Irma could dwarf that. ♦The coastal area is much more densely populated than when Donna hit in 1960.  ♦The Gulf Side coastal shallow water is more prone to movement by wind force.

What does all this mean?

Well, information is how we make prudent decisions.  If you overlay the National Hurricane Center timeline with the local tidal charts for the impacted communities; you see the potential worst case scenario for storm surge that could dwarf all prior forecasts of the worst case scenario.  These Maps could be under-stating the risk; they most certainly are not over-stating it.

I’m not trying to alarm anyone, but if you are near the coast -anywhere near the coast- from Ten Thousand Islands up to Tampa and St. Pete; especially in Charlotte Harbor or along the Caloosahatchee river basin; or if you are even in a moderate non-evacuated flood zone; if you live West of U.S. 41; and if you are wondering whether you should seek shelter on higher ground today…. JUST DO IT !

We have seen hurricanes carve up barrier Islands, remove and build others, and swamp coastal communities with storm surge.  We have never seen a recorded major hurricane track from South to North on, or near, the West coast of Florida.

The west coast tides and the arrival of the Atlantic region’s most powerful hurricane are in alignment for a worst case scenario for flooding and storm surge.  There is still time today to take shelter from that storm surge, and for those North of Boca Grande (North of Lake Okeechobee – 28° latitude) there’s still time to evacuate.

NHC Storm Surge Link 

(interactive map)

 

 

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211 Responses to 5:00am Hurricane Irma – Alert For West Coast Tidal Storm Surge…

  1. Founding Fathers Fan says:

    Hurricane Irma is wider than the entire State of Florida. Storm surge is just one of the dangers.

    Liked by 5 people

    • ladypenquin says:

      We’re all praying for good outcomes. It has occurred to me – for those who are not in harm’s way, and if you have a few extra dollars – it would be a good time to send a donation to Sundance. He would have some extra need at this time, and we know he is helping others.

      What say you fellow Treepers? It’s one way we can help and know that all goes to a good cause and the right use of our contributions.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Alison says:

        I will do that now.

        Sundance, we are all praying for you.

        Liked by 3 people

      • mrsqt says:

        What a great idea, ladypenquin. Donating to Sundance is not something I would have thought right now so I’m glad you mentioned it. It’s the very least I can do for all he does – I wish I could do more. I’m in Volusia County just a few miles from the coast and the information found here has been invaluable and has kept me from relying on the news. Sundance along with everyone here has made this extremely stressful time easier to deal with and I thank each and every one of you! All of you are in my prayers.

        Liked by 4 people

        • ladypenquin says:

          We all hope you’ll be okay. Let us know if you have needs. I’m sure Sundance will figure out a way to get help to folks. It was last night that I thought about the donating…I’m cautious about donations to quite a few organizations as the money isn’t always spent the right way, but with CTH, no worries. And you’re so right, the Treehouse provides so much information, comfort and support – any day of the week, every day of the year. Priceless. 🙂

          Liked by 2 people

      • Guyver1 says:

        Done.

        Liked by 2 people

  2. thetrain2016 says:

    Our phone woke us up at 6:00. “Imminent Extreme Alert”. “Hurricane Warning this area. Check local media and authorities. -NWS”
    We’ve planned to leave anyway… leaving our fully prepared house behind (with the exception of ammo and the precision instruments they were created for). Nashville or bust.

    Liked by 26 people

  3. Arkindole says:

    The Cape Coral area all the way out to Lehigh Acres has received most of the rain this year (inland to Moorehaven is dry as a bone) and the ground is absolutely saturated with a lot of standing water already. The fact that they show some flooding all the way out to Alma and maybe west Ft. Denaud (low lying) along the river should be taken very seriously.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Arkindole says:

      Another thing is this…I drove around yesterday morning and all of the significant retention ponds in our area that collect run-off from the ag/pasture lands SOUTH of the Caloosahatchee in the Felda area and dump into the river have their weirs at the normal height position (full ponds now). What that means is that they have not lowered retention pond levels prior to 12 inches or so of probably east eye wall rain. If they drop the weirs during the storm guess what’s going to happen downstream. (the water that would be coming downstream in is 22ft higher, on average, than Cape Coral.

      Liked by 1 person

  4. sundance says:

    Liked by 12 people

  5. nwtex says:

    Liked by 5 people

    • smiley says:

      the homeless

      Liked by 1 person

    • Arkindole says:

      Keep in mind that about 50% of houses in my area have nothing on their windows and their yards are full of balistic junk. They are also not leaving.

      There will be many many Darwin awards afterwards.

      Liked by 3 people

      • nwtex says:

        These are human beings!!!

        Liked by 3 people

        • svenwg says:

          They are? Are you sure of that? Could be throwbacks to before Cromagnum man, maybe???

          Like

        • Deb says:

          Yes NWTex. Those of us who have been blessed with common sense are tasked with taking care of others who might not be. The least we can do is remember they are human beings created in God’s image.

          Liked by 3 people

        • mw says:

          Yes, but their lack of preparation is harmful to themselves and to others who have prepared. That junk in their yard will cause harm.

          Liked by 7 people

          • Grandma Covfefe says:

            They are either depressed, in denial, frozen in fear, overwhelmed, or don’t care.

            Insted of some useless classes in high school, they ought to teach a semester of civics, and a 1/2 semester of survival of all disasters and 1/2 semester of disaster common in their space/area/community. These teachers would have to be certified and appproved by fed gov’t/FEMA not teacher unions. If everyone takes a survival class, there would be less fearful or overwhelmed people and more teamwork/helping others as well as yourself within your community space.

            Liked by 2 people

      • Sylvia Avery says:

        I’m trying to understand the lack of preparation you report. I’m failing.

        Like

    • mj_inOC says:

      Please evacuate to a FEMA shelter if need be.
      Continued prayers, Dear Patriots…

      Liked by 1 person

      • singingsoul says:

        My ex neighbor with family moved to Florida to retire . They are not well off and I wonder if they see the reality of this danger coming their way..? They struggled here . So many people like that who just scape buy because of cost of living and they never earned that much. Those people are in my prayers .

        Liked by 2 people

    • Grandma Covfefe says:

      Food for thought:: *Not all senior citizens are well off, and most of us have to really watch our money. *Many senior citizens are in poor health and don’t like to leave the comfort-zone of their home. *An event like this does take some senior citizens down a notch finanically with little means of recouping their finances, when they have been living within or below their means. It is a dicey situation. Once Senior Citizens spend some of their savings meant for future assist/end of life care, then they have harder time recouping the money than a younger career person. I know many of you here know all this, but you would be surprised to know many out there just don’t get the purpose of saving money from the senior citizens’ perspective.

      Many of us sensible-minded Boomers have been dealt a bad hand in our investments because of the lack of understand of finances/economy from previous presidents. We have made money since DJTrump became president, but sadly it is what I call catch-up finances for our future care.

      There are some, not all, homeless people who used to be like us. But when both spouses loses their jobs or health, that is where they ended up-homeless, beyond their control-very heartbreaking, but it is a lesson for us all to be careful with our money and to save so to use it for the good. We saw first-handed many who lost everything due to health and bad economy–too scary to watch.

      Note: I am not referring to homeless who have mental illnesses or are a danger to public.(we were attacked by Kelly Thomas-wiki him) And I’m not referring to Senior citizens who spend irresponsibility their whole lives with no care.

      *Another point-many senior citizens don’t adjust well to the cultural changes in our country and the loss of American patriotism. It give a sense of invasion within us, when we still remembered when we were one culture, one nation, one people, one flag, one GOD. I’ve had aliens bad talked me unnecessarily and scared me badly that I withdrew into the safety of my home.

      So sorry this was long. It is times like this that is very trying for us all, the young and the old, the rich and the poor–we are all in this together, so that we can dig ourselves out together thru work, encouragement, prayer or donations.

      This site has truly been the Last Refuge for us with fierce patriotism and common sense kicked in. We love all you Treepers. esp wonderful Sundance and his CTH crew.
      God Bless you all.

      Liked by 2 people

  6. sundance says:

    Liked by 16 people

  7. straightstreet says:

    First of all my prayers are for all of you in the path of Irma. I’ve been praying daily. Here’s my question, on the top map it shows 2 am Wed and 2 am Thurs with a “D” circled. Does this mean tropical depression is parked in that area for a couple days?

    Liked by 3 people

    • shadowcole says:

      I had the same question though may be too soon to really pinpoint that. We live just south of St. Louis and the cone each day has been getting closer to us and now it covers us. I assume that we have the possibility of some rain from Irma but not much else?

      Like

  8. nwtex says:

    6:06 PM – 8 Sep 2017

    Liked by 3 people

  9. GatorBait says:

    First time poster, I live in the Gainesville area. We have a great record regarding hurricanes. However, this one is very scary…..very. It has been moving West for well over 24 hrs. Not sure what the front is doing, but that is basically the lynch pin, in this thing. As of now, I have a feeling that the storm continues West and hits the Tallahassee area. But, the storm is so huge and strong, everyone will be affected. I don’t know much about the storm surge aspect, because I’m so far inland, I don’t deal with it. Just expect it to be worse than you think. I’m Conservatively thinking I’ll have to deal with a Cat 1 system, but the further West it moves, the better off I am.

    Liked by 15 people

  10. Steele81 says:

    I’m praying safety and divine protection, wisdom and God’s grace and mercy on everyone affected by these hurricanes.

    Liked by 22 people

  11. Bob Thoms says:

    It looks like Irma has tracked west of Cay Sal; Howie always said “watch Cay Sal” it will dictate what he does……………

    My hopes and prayers for everyone; especially in Naples. I used to have family in Naples and would make annual visit (1970s-1980s). An wonderful sleepy town back then…………I have a beautiful painting of the old mossy live oaks that line the streets of Old Naples……..fond memories.

    Liked by 7 people

    • Melanie says:

      Here’s A Question:
      How about if Irma doesn’t do the North Turn like she is supposed to do?

      Liked by 1 person

      • Bob Thoms says:

        That would be a shocker; wouldn’t it? All the experts agree it will make a hard right turn…..could be dangerous for the gulf states – Texas, LA, AL, or Central Mexico? No idea.

        Liked by 2 people

        • pawatcher says:

          Does the hockey stick model have you thinking: will the large storm Irma turn on a dime?
          Time will tell: Katia hit Mexico, she was on the same course as Irma and Jose………. time will tell.

          Like

          • Brant says:

            For awhile I’ve been thinking to model looks hockey stick like. Also remember, the same “scientists” who can pick the right track and we can see the dang thing are the same ones who assured us the ice caps would have melted 10 years ago.

            Liked by 1 person

      • Well every single projected track has been wrong so far.

        Liked by 4 people

      • dbobway says:

        Today is the time the inland high pressure gets close enough to the eye of Irma to turn it.
        The outer bands are already heading up the east coast.
        It just may be to far west to miss slamming Florida.
        The High Pressure system coming south is a strong one,
        It will punch Irma in the mouth, maybe breaking it up some and slowing it down toward a later land fall.
        The later the better for low tide times Monday evening.
        Water surge has no mercy.

        Liked by 7 people

      • Grandma Covfefe says:

        Well, the weathermen have been know to have been wrong….
        There are such things called “Flukes”. In this case I pray so.

        Like

    • NYGuy54 says:

      I just heard from my cousin in S Florida who took her 2 St Bernards and her 1 son and evacuated to Chattanooga, Everyone else is staying. The dogs are so cute. They are like big babies.

      Liked by 10 people

  12. yellowrosetx says:

    In Texas, you grow up used to the threat of tornadoes. Your parents teach you to watch the sky, watch the news, and hunker down for the relatively short time you need to stay safe or survive. I used to think it was probably the same in hurricane-prone areas because so many people usually choose to shelter in place and ride out the storm because their homes and their minds are prepared.
    But this. Days of anticipation, decisions that MUST be made as each day unfolds in the face of a storm like they have never seen…..the people of Florida consume my prayers today. I would imagine even the longtime veteran hurricane survivors find this daunting.
    My prayers to the Almighty for you are continual and in earnest.

    Liked by 14 people

  13. Martin says:

    Aside from the extreme risks along the SW coast, my concern is the size of the storm, and the proximity to infeed all along the path, all the way up to the Big Bend. And, how much weakening will occur. Or how little.

    I’m in what we call Soganofla, the FL/GA counties around the Tallahassee DMA. This ain’t good. Hermine made landfall just east of St. Marks, and quickly made a bead for Valdosta. 325k were powerless in TLH just from that, some for weeks. This lengthwise track with one foot still in the water, so to speak, isn’t good. At all. The area is packed with evacuees. Feeling followed probably isn’t a unique thing.

    So fess up. Which one of you is it? 😬

    Liked by 3 people

    • Deb says:

      We lived in Valdosta during the 2008 storm season, when Tropical Storm Fay caused fatalities in Florida. That was just one storm, that was a very active hurricaine season. I can’t imagine being in the panhandle and riding this one out. Prayers for all in this storm’s path.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Martin says:

        And the weather here now is just delightful, low 70’s, breezy. Gnats don’t know what to do. That’s gonna change. Hunker down, folks.

        Like

  14. bluegirl says:

    My thoughts and prayers are with YOU ALL in the path of this hurricane!!!! Please God watch over and protect them!!!!!!!!!!! God bless each and everyone of you.

    Liked by 11 people

  15. elize says:

    Normal daily routine – CTH as soon as I wake up (laptop by bed) and a final check before I go to sleep. And of course throughout the day for daily news and events. Over the weekend and the duration of Irma I am thanking God for every response by Sundance and those in the path as a confirmation they are still here. Thank God for technology and our CTH family. Much ❤ folks.

    Liked by 20 people

  16. Pam says:

    8am Advisory

    8:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 9
    Location: 22.6°N 79.6°W
    Moving: W at 12 mph
    Min pressure: 937 mb
    Max sustained: 130 mph

    ABOUT 10 MI…15 KM NW OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
    ABOUT 225 MI…365 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA

    Like

  17. JRD says:

    And all those who evacuated are stuck in Naples.
    FRILLIANT!

    Like

  18. Bruce says:

    You can watch the storm real time http://www.intellicast.com. Cuba experienced winds of 70 mph at a station about 60 miles from the storm as it skirted the coast.

    In Florida the surge is the biggest threat. The inlets allow water to be pumped into a confined area by a force that is creating a massive hydraulic pressure. Move away from the center if need be.

    The models continue to be unreliable for managing your next move.

    Liked by 5 people

    • Martin says:

      Yup. The Big Bend is like a giant dining room tray, just waitin’ for a big ‘ol sweet tea to be spilled on it. The St. Marks flood plain isn’t a good hiding place. At all.

      Like

  19. Publius2016 says:

    These snowflakes saying Mother Nature is angry at President for getting out of the Paris Accords are simply insane!

    Liked by 8 people

    • Right Mover says:

      Mother Nature = God, and the snowflakes don’t believe in God anyway, and they ARE both insane and contemptible. And there is a special place in hell for the Jennifer Lawrences of the world.

      Liked by 6 people

      • Bruce says:

        Romans chap 3 read the whole thing.
        9 What then? Are we Jews[a] any better off?[b] No, not at all. For we have already charged that all, both Jews and Greeks, are under sin, 10 as it is written:

        “None is righteous, no, not one;
        11 no one understands;
        no one seeks for God.
        12 All have turned aside; together they have become worthless;
        no one does good,
        not even one.”
        13 “Their throat is an open grave;
        they use their tongues to deceive.”
        “The venom of asps is under their lips.”
        14 “Their mouth is full of curses and bitterness.”
        15 “Their feet are swift to shed blood;
        16 in their paths are ruin and misery,
        17 and the way of peace they have not known.”
        18 “There is no fear of God before their eyes.”

        Liked by 3 people

        • Bruce says:

          Romans 3; 21 But now the righteousness of God has been manifested apart from the law, although the Law and the Prophets bear witness to it— 22 the righteousness of God through faith in Jesus Christ for all who believe. For there is no distinction: 23 for all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God, 24 and are justified by his grace as a gift, through the redemption that is in Christ Jesus, 25 whom God put forward as a propitiation by his blood, to be received by faith. This was to show God’s righteousness, because in his divine forbearance he had passed over former sins. 26 It was to show his righteousness at the present time, so that he might be just and the justifier of the one who has faith in Jesus.

          Liked by 3 people

    • Sharon Moe says:

      I think they’re using it as an excuse not to give any of their money for hurricane relief.

      Liked by 6 people

    • Deb says:

      Wait, I thought they only believe in “science?” I guess they really are tree worshipping pagans…

      Liked by 2 people

      • Esperanza says:

        Not even that, I’m a Neo Pagan and I know Gaia is powerful. Never forget the proverb, push Nature out of the door with a broom and see her come back through the window with a chainsaw.

        The two most polluting countries on earth are China and India. P accords do nothing to reduce their pollution.

        Like

    • Remington..... says:

      Yes they are certifiably insane, but we’ve always known that. This is just another platform to showcase that insanity.

      Selling our home in SW Cape Coral four years ago sure seems like brilliant move about now. ‘ And let’s not forget Jose is right around the corner. Talk about the old one – two punch.

      Like

  20. Pam says:

    Liked by 2 people

  21. NHVoter says:

    Liked by 5 people

  22. Bob Thoms says:

    WeaterBell Analystics Joe Bastardi has been missing in action on Irma; usually he is all over the tv with opinions and analysis.

    Like

  23. NHVoter says:

    Liked by 3 people

  24. HolyLoly says:

    For verily I say unto you, that whosoever shall say unto this mountain, ‘Be thou removed, and be thou cast into the sea,’ and shall not doubt in his heart, but shall believe that those things which he saith shall come to pass, he shall have whatsoever he saith. Mark 11:23

    We say unto Irma, be thou removed and be cast into the sea! We command the millibars to rise and the storm to dissipate and abate. We say, “Peace be still!” in the name of Jesus, our Lord and Savior.

    Liked by 5 people

  25. skeinster says:

    Prayers for all in the storm path. My brother and sil went to GA- if there were still there, it would be terrifying.
    Thank you, Sundance for your updates. Stay safe.

    Liked by 2 people

  26. Nationalist says:

    This GOES East satellite loop of visible water vapor has been my go-to source of weather self-forecasting for years…

    The key thing to watch is the curved dark area that defines the edge of a high pressure system extending down from Canada. That front is what will steer the hurricane. When the contest is cold front versus hurricane, the cold front always wins.

    That dome of high pressure has been stronger and has persisted longer than the NHC folks anticipated (in my opinion). However, at the end of the loop (at 8 am EST) you will notice that the front turns from a smooth arc to a sawtooth. That ‘sawtooth’ notch is where the storm will turn north (again, my opinion).

    Liked by 6 people

    • Nationalist says:

      In my original post the loop stops before showing the ‘sawtooth’. (To see the most recent series of images just click on the loop).

      In the screenshot above I have drawn in an arrow to show where the cold front starts to break up. That area is moving west to east and unfortunately, correlates with Sundance’s thesis of a move up the west coast of Florida.

      I am hoping that front can hold out a little longer, but it appears to be weakening.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Beenthere says:

        Hurricane Andrew was so powerful that it pushed through any fronts that were in its path. The experts were shocked at that tiime. Hurricane Irma is more powerful. Expect ft to defy predictions and prepare for the worse as it gets stronger.

        Godspeed to all in its path.

        Liked by 2 people

        • 1hear2learn says:

          My aunt lived in Homestead and went through Andrew. She had tried to convince great aunt & uncle who lived by intercostal in Pompano, to ride out storm with her, which they declined… no idea at the time Pompano would be safer than Homestead. She lost her business and home and was scared to death! She was so traumatized, she moved back to KY for several years after that. She had hard time even talking about experience years after, she was that scared…

          She eventually moved back to Naples, FL several years later, and now lives in Orlando area. Prayers for all!

          Liked by 1 person

  27. 1hear2learn says:

    Thoughts & prayers for all! My uncle in Tampa passed on Wednesday, more family also in Sarasota & Orlando area… going to be anxious few days for many across the country who have friends & family in Irma’s path.

    Hunker down & be safe!

    Liked by 2 people

  28. Patriot1783 says:

    Good luck and Godspeed to all in Irmas path.

    Liked by 1 person

  29. youme says:

    Liked by 2 people

  30. Brant says:

    I find it fascinating that globull weather “scientists” haven’t been able to predict the exact track of this storm down to the millimeter even in real time, but they were able to guarantee (ya know, a consensus) that the ice caps would melt 10 years ago.

    Liked by 2 people

    • I think that if you get a bunch of working meteorologists in a soundproof room and ask what they think of AGW, most will say, “It’s bunk!”

      OTOH, if you get a bunch of academic climatologists in that same room next, they will say, “Oh, yes. The science is settled. It’s all true. There is a consensus!”

      Let’s not blame our hardworking, reality-based meteorologists (weather men for those of you in Rio Linda) for things they haven’t said. Of course, if they have, go get ’em!

      Like

    • Grandma Covfefe says:

      Exactly!!

      Hubbie and I have been saying that for years and it really works, shutting the alarmists up fast!

      Like

  31. dogsmaw says:

    Im going to visit granddaughter and be back this evening to sit up with everyone here tonite on watch. God speed little ones and Stay Safe. I expect all of you to be here after the storm…specially Sundance 🙂

    Liked by 6 people

  32. Pam says:

    Like

  33. NHVoter says:

    Like

  34. Pam says:

    Liked by 3 people

  35. shadowcole says:

    My sister and family live in Safety Harbor, praying for their safety and all of those in the path of Irma. Godspeed Fla,Ga,+!

    Liked by 5 people

  36. Pam says:

    Like

  37. Pam says:

    Liked by 2 people

  38. Pam says:

    Like

  39. Pam says:

    Liked by 1 person

  40. NHVoter says:

    Liked by 3 people

  41. Pam says:

    Liked by 2 people

  42. Pam says:

    Like

  43. labrat says:

    My 94 y/o father begged my sister’s to head out of town on Thurs. He has always evacuated at the first hint of a storm heading his way.They could be safely in NJ right now. My sister’s insisted they could weather it out in their “hurricane safe” homes. So much for the “stubborn elderly” – many are actually wise.Too late now they are hunkering down in North Port just East of 41. Hope that’s far enough inland. My Dad’s house in Venice (my planned retirement home) is “toast”. My sisters better be right.

    Liked by 3 people

  44. TheLastDemocrat says:

    Recent noaa update says pressure 937 millibars, top sustained wind speeds 130.
    This is a huge storm, but the land masses are starving it.

    I think top sustained winds at surface are just above 100MPH right now.

    Liked by 1 person

  45. Laura says:

    I just thought of something that might be helpful to some people who are still preparing (and who might be able to get a few groceries–or for anyone who already has the ingredients on hand). Below is a granola bar recipe that is very fortifying and will stay fresh for a long time in a zipped closed bag (maybe double bag it if you think it could get wet).

    Granolas
    3 c. quick cook oats
    1 14-oz can sweetened condensed milk
    1 c. sliced almonds
    1 c. chocolate chips
    1/2 c. dried cranberries and/or raisins
    1/2 c. sunflower seeds
    1/2 c. chopped pecans

    Preheat oven to 350 degrees. Grease 9×13-inch pan. In large bowl, mix all ingredients until well blended. Using wax paper, press into pan. Bake 20-25 minutes or until granolas are light brown around edges. Allow to cool before cutting.

    For the above recipe, you can easily swap out whatever nuts and dried fruits you have on hand. I generally don’t measure anything other than the oats, but rather just use this recipe as a guideline.

    There are lots of other good granola bar recipes online, too, and many of them are very high in protein (some have quinoa in them, for example). These kinds of things you can make ahead of time might very well be a life saver. They’re much cheaper than store-bought granola bars, and if everyone is going for prepackaged food, you might just be able to find the ingredients on mostly bare grocery shelves.

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