Commerce Secretary Wilbur “Wilburine” Ross sits down for a big picture conversation to discuss the upcoming NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) trade renegotiation.
This interview is well worth the time to understand the dynamics and objectives of the Trump administration.
We are incredibly blessed to have Wilbur Ross, Steven Mnuchin (Treasury) and Robert Lighthizer (U.S. Trade Rep.) as the leading edge of the new America-First economic revitalization.
These U.S. policy titans of trade, finance and commerce are the most comprehensively well-skilled people we have had assembled in our lifetime.
Also, semi related, there’s some confusion about the leading economic indicators, specifically the messaging, coming from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.
We repeat a familiar refrain for emphasis: This new economic dimension is uncharted territory. The BLS and the larger FED policy groups have no accurate way to present economic data that runs in conflict to their reference points.
Additionally, there’s a political angle within the federal bureaucracy that is partisan and inherently predisposed to undermining the policy outcomes of the Trump administration.
You will notice several incongruities in most of the BLS financial reports. Cue today’s audio/visual demonstration within a single article:
- …”Roughly 180,000 new jobs each month are needed to keep up with demand in the labor force.”
- …”U.S. employers added 138,000 net new jobs to the rolls last month.”
- …”the jobless rate, also declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, hitting the lowest level since 2001.”
See the incongruity?
If it takes 180,000 jobs each month to retain stasis, and the economy only added 138,000 jobs, then how does the unemployment rate decrease from 4.4 to 4.3%?
The FED and BLS are unable to reconcile what is happening within the economy because they have no reference point for what happens within the time and space between the two economic engines (Wall Street and Main Street).
Just like their “rate of inflation” measures do not include high consumables (food, fuel and energy prices), so too does their employment measure miss any jobs disconnected from actual GDP outputs.
The ADP payroll stats (actual payrolls spent), do a better job accounting for those who are involved in the pre-economy manufacturing work force. Think of it like a house being built.
During the construction period of a home all of the workers are being paid but there is no end product to provide a valuation. After the home is built it has an immediate value that becomes part of the GDP.
President Trump’s economic policies (and the investments therein) are in the building stage, currently not part of the larger economic valuation.
…”Average hourly earnings, a closely-watched metric, rose 0.2% during the month, as expected, putting year-over-year wage gains at 2.5%. The figures help reinforce the idea consumer spending, and therefore overall economic growth, will see a bounce.”…
According to BLS stats, wages increased May ’16 -vs- May ’17 by 2.5%. In my opinion this is significantly underestimated. Wage rate growth is much higher on ADP payrolls, but yet unrecorded because the end product created by the worker is not yet recorded in the economy.
Last point, and I mean this will all sincerity… THANK YOU for voting for President Donald Trump. No-one else understood; no-one else was even close to understanding what was needed; and no-one else could have, or would have, assembled the economic team we have leading our national economy.
Every single positive economic outcome for you, your family, your children and your grandchildren is directly and specifically due to your vote for President Trump.
Thank You just doesn’t seem to convey the scope of appreciation.