It’s Trumponomics folks, he’s not a politician. In addition, we are well within the space between the two economies: Wall Street and Main Street. As each month progresses over the next two years you will see increased momentum on Main Street’s engine as it closes the distance from three decades terrible fiscal policy with clear tracks ahead.
The upcoming FED jobs data will be based on figures captured the week of May 12th. The ADP jobs/payroll data is through the end of the month of May:
US private payrolls jumped by 253,000 in May, according to the monthly report from ADP Research Institute. Economists had forecast 180,000 jobs, according to Bloomberg.
Hiring increased in every goods-producing sector including mining and manufacturing, the report showed. In services, only information and leisure and hospitality had declines. (link)
It is important to remember, there is no historic economic model for what happens in the space between the two economic engines. A resurgence in the actual or real economy (Main Street) creates a new dynamic in economic modeling; while the paper economy (Wall Street), traditionally driven by monetary policy, is disfavored or ‘less than‘.
The FED is almost admitting their inability to slow down growth. They’ve already reformulated the stasis position for jobs in order to try and reconcile additional jobs gained beyond what they have previously stated was “full employment” ().
Hedgefunds and the global betting on financial instruments (derivatives) will be more challenging to manage as investment dollars find a more predictable return in actual companies that build and create things within the U.S. economy. Short version, globalists will lose customers as investors move into national economic companies.
The S&P, NASDAQ and DOW should see growth through real companies invested in the United States. This growth dynamic will support continued their evaluation, but each company must be attached to Main Street USA.
There’s going to be a lag in actual GDP as the growth in jobs appears in the building of the infrastructure for later product creation. Companies have to create the ability to make stuff (the current phase) before they can actually make and sell stuff (coming later).
Much of the current jobs growth is in putting the foundational blocks into place to rebuild the infrastructure (capacity) for U.S. manufacturing and U.S. production.
The downstream support and supply businesses (small companies) are getting the biggest lift in this economic phase.
Good Stuff, with much more Good Stuff yet to come.