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July 2nd – 2025 Presidential Politics – Trump Administration Day 164

In an effort to keep the Daily Open Thread a little more open topic we are going to start a new daily thread for “Presidential Politics”. Please use this thread to post anything relating to the Donald Trump Administration and Presidency.

This thread will refresh daily and appear above the Open Discussion Thread.

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Wednesday July 2nd – Open Thread

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy Name. Thy kingdom come. THY WILL BE DONE, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread. And forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but DELIVER US FROM EVIL.

For Thine is the kingdom and the power and the glory, forever and ever. Amen †

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President Trump Firm, No More Tariff Extensions Beyond July 8th

There is some interesting information within the video of President Trump aboard AF-1 as he returns from Florida. However, one of the more interesting aspects comes around 05:39 when asked if he was thinking about extending the tariff pause beyond July 8, 2025.

As noted by President Trump, very firmly, no. There is no reason to extend the deadline for reciprocal tariffs beyond July 8th for any country not in direct negotiations as of that date. Trump intends to just send them a letter outlining the applied tariff rate and that’s it. Done is done. WATCH:

This firm date is why India has extended their negotiation team in Washington DC, and is also the reason why Europe is coming Thursday.  The baseline tariffs are done, everyone pays 10% regardless of a FTA or not.  The reciprocal tariff rate will be applied to those without an FTA effective July 9th.

[The EU (who wants a trade deal now) is eventually going to align with Canada (who will need a trade deal later).  This factors into the current trade dynamic and looms over the decision making.]

Post July 9th, President Trump moves on to other important geopolitical matters with the tariffs as an ancillary weapon for adherence to the new international trade alignment.  Those who want to benefit commit to the U.S. dollar as the trade currency (that’s the reason for India’s announcement today), and trade preferences are then used to shake up the geopolitical alignments.  Watch for how this plays out with Trump’s planned UK visit.

From there, and after the gnashing of teeth settles down, later in the summer President Trump then triggers the USMCA renegotiation phase with Mexico and Canada.   President Trump is essentially ambivalent to the pleas from nations who want to continue their trade imbalance.  This sequencing and outline appears clear; but let’s watch and see what happens.

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University of Pennsylvania Apologizes for Allowing Lia Thomas to Compete in Women’s Swimming

A huge win for women in sports.  The University of Pennsylvania has completely reversed course and admitted they violated Title IX by allowing transgender male swimmer Lia Thomas to compete as a woman athlete.

PENNSYLVANIA – The U.S. Department of Education announced Tuesday that the University of Pennsylvania has agreed to a resolution with President Donald Trump’s administration to keep biological male trans athletes out of women’s sports, in a statement provided to Fox News Digital.

The department previously launched an investigation into UPenn on Feb. 6 for Title IX violations that occurred in the swimming program. Trans athlete Lia Thomas competed for the women’s team in the 2021-22 season, after previously competing for the men’s team.

“Today, the U.S. Department of Education (the Department) announced the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) has entered into a Resolution Agreement to comply with Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 (Title IX),” the statement read. (read more)

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Speaker Mike Johnson Wants Big Beautiful Bill Through House by Independence Day

♦ Some people just can’t take a win.  For the “I need to be outraged” group I would suggest their best time for complaining would be to join the collective association of the tech crew (Musk/Thiel), the alligator emojis (DeSantis/Cruz Crew) and the CONservative free traders (Massie, Paul, Roy).  That group of always unhappy, whining and never satisfied knuckleheads will welcome the griping, bitching and moaning.

However, that doesn’t work here. We have a big win to celebrate.

♦ The Senate version of the previously passed Big Beautiful Bill cuts more spending than originally delivered from the House.  You might ask why then did spending opposition narratives surface now and not when it passed through the House? Good question, we’ll get to that ‘political answer’ in a moment.

For now, the BBB is on track as it was originally planned (by July 4th); albeit right at the outer limits of the predicted timeframe that was announced in January.

[SOURCE]

The Senate BBB passed on a 50-50 vote split, highlighting it was the most conservative bill that could possibly squeak through the Senate.  It is the culmination of MAGA interests -vs- MAGA opposition, with the biggest win being the $70 billion for border security and ongoing deportation operations.

The original plan was always to use rescission bills to cut out the DOGE waste. Per Senate rules, the rescissions/cuts cannot be done until after the initial funding bill is passed (that’s BBB). Timeline: July – BBB, Aug – Rescission bills to cut DOGE waste {examples}, and Sept – FY 2026 Budget bill which begins October 1st.

Additionally, the narrative about the Senate bill including Medicaid spending for illegal aliens is false.

♦ The ban on Medicaid for illegal aliens is actually stronger than initially thought [See page 602. Section 77109].  As noted by Senator Schmidt, “the bill actually goes much further than the house version – beyond banning Medicaid for 1.4 million illegal aliens, it: • Requires states to verify citizenship status before providing coverage • Bans automatic Medicaid enrollment for children of illegal aliens • Excludes DACA from Medicaid.”

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Pentagon Stops Some Promised Munitions for Ukraine

If my data alignment points are accurate, now that the BBB is passed through the Senate we are likely to see some very major geopolitical changes come rushing to the surface.

Keep watching and let’s see if things happen the way we expect.

WASHINGTON DC – The Pentagon has halted shipments of some air defense missiles and other precision munitions to Ukraine due to worries that U.S. weapons stockpiles have fallen too low.

[…] In a statement following the publication of this story, White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said that the decision “was made to put America’s interests first following a DOD review of our nation’s military support and assistance to other countries across the globe. The strength of the United States Armed Forces remains unquestioned — just ask Iran.”

Included among the items being pulled back are missiles for Patriot air defense systems, precision artillery rounds, Hellfire and other missiles that Ukraine launches from its F-16 fighters and drones.

The losses will surely be felt on the ground as Ukraine continues to beat back fresh assaults by Russian forces. (read more)

In related news not getting attention, French President Emmanuel Macron had a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin today. [LINK]  Also, Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the president of Azerbaijan today, an ally of Putin [LINK]. Azerbaijan is to Russia as Mexico is to the United States.

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OMB Director Russ Vaught Breaks Down Major Value of Big Beautiful Bill and Likelihood of Passage

Another facet not discussed in the BBB background is data released by the US Office of Personnel Management showing a reduction of approximately 23,000 federal employees since the Trump administration took office. [LINK HERE] OPM adds that hundreds of thousands will drop from payroll in October 2025. [link]

Office of Management and Budget Director Russel Vought appears on CNBC to discuss the non-pretending facts within the Big Beautiful Bill as it passed through the Senate.  The House now needs to reconcile, support the bill and send it to President Trump’s desk by July 4th.

The key notation from Vought comes at 06:07 of the video below as he explains the BBB is just one facet of a larger cost-cutting initiative (tariff revenue, recission cuts, discretionary spending reductions etc.). WATCH:

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I’ve got two words for the Musk fanboys, Tech bros, CONservatives, Massie/Paul/Roy fools, and those who clutch pearls on the false budget apoplexy; those two words are not ‘Merry Christmas.’

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Europe in Rush For Initial Trade Framework – Reality of Baseline Tariffs Setting in

A serendipitous article about information from European Commission officials Björn Seibert and Sabine Weyand, as EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič urgently heads to Washington DC for emergency talks Thursday against the backdrop of a July 8 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump to do a deal or face 50 percent “reciprocal” tariffs.

Let me just remind everyone the ongoing failure to recognize or accept President Trump’s position regarding both the EU and Canadian trade position with the U.S. will be their undoing.  For whatever reason, likely because it has always been thus for them, they both have a massive cognitive disconnect.

EU trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic is going to try and avoid the baseline tariffs; however, the aggregate EU now accepts after reviewing the details of the U.S-UK trade agreement, they will not be able to get below 10%.  This alone has them considerably triggered.

The only real tariff positions the EU have to try and escape are the auto tariffs (25%) and Steel/Aluminum (50%).  There is no way for them to avoid the baseline 10% on everything.   Keep in mind President Trump will add a tariff surcharge for Spain’s refusal to meet their NATO obligations.  Trump cannot single out Spain, so the entire EU will be punished with the surcharge for not bringing them into line.

BRUSSELS — The outline of a trade deal between the EU and the U.S. is taking shape. It would contain a baseline 10 percent U.S. tariff, relief for specific industries and an “up-front” U.S. commitment to tariff relief, four diplomats told POLITICO.

[…] Brussels is pushing to secure a U.S. commitment to “up-front” tariff relief at the time of the agreement in principle, according to the diplomats. This would resemble a deal already struck by the U.K. with Washington, which offered tariff exemptions on auto and steel exports while talks on a comprehensive deal continue. A number of EU countries told the Commission no deal of any kind would be possible without such relief.

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President Trump Participates in Roundtable Discussion from Alligator Alcatraz

While holding a conference and press availability from the new Florida location for speedy processing of illegal aliens, President Trump hears the news of the Senate passing the Big Beautiful Bill.

President Trump, Governor Ron DeSantis and DHS Secretary Kristi Noem highlight the purposes of the latest deportation facility along with Florida officials.  WATCH:

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President Trump and Kristi Noem Discusses Possible legal Action Against CNN for Promoting ICE Block app

President Trump, Governor DeSantis and Secretary Noem deliver remarks from the Alligator Alcatraz facility. WATCH:

During a tour through Alligator Alcatraz (raw feed below) President Trump and DHS Secretary Noem were asked about the legality of CNN Promoting an ICE Block app to help illegal aliens avoid capture and detention.  WATCH:

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