Those in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area need to pay particular attention to the path of this storm throughout the day today and tomorrow.  Michael is expected to become a hurricane much sooner than initially forecast.  There is a potential for strength to major hurricane status in the Northern Gulf of Mexico prior to landfall.  Those in the Mississippi and Alabama coastal area should also keep an eye for updates.
[National Hurricane Center] At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan Channel today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.
(more…)

Coastal residents of Northern Florida (Panhandle), Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana should keep an eye on tropical storm Michael.  The storm is anticipated to become a Hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico sometime late Tuesday/Wednesday.

At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.
(more…)

Earlier today President Trump traveled to North Carolina for a briefing by local, state and federal officials who are responding to the recovery efforts in North Carolina following Hurricane Florence. Following the briefing, President Trump toured some of the impacted regions and thanked those who are assisting in ongoing recovery efforts.

[Transcript] – Cherry Point, North Carolina – 10:47 A.M. EDT – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. We appreciate it very — the job you’ve done has been incredible. Incredible. They’re talking about it all over the world. And we want to keep it going that way, because some of the hard work is now. We’ve gone through very dangerous work, and still dangerous, but some of the hard work is taking place right now, even though its nice and beautiful and sunny.
(more…)

Several communities and towns within North Carolina have been completely cut-off by rising flood waters as a result of Hurricane Florence and the unprecedented amount of rain.  The cities of Wilmington and Jacksonville, NC, are surrounded by flooding.
Pay attention to all local officials, and heed all notices to evacuate based on the advice from local and state officials.  The threat is increasing in multiple regions throughout the state of North Carolina.  Evacuations are ongoing with all resources deployed to assist stranded residents.  FEMA, the national guard, the coast guard, and all state and federal resources are currently deployed for ongoing rescue efforts.

.
Florence has weakened to a tropical depression but forecasters warn the next few days could bring the most destructive round of flooding in North Carolina history. The National Hurricane Center says the effect is expected to be “catastrophic.”

NORTH CAROLINA – The city of Wilmington, North Carolina, has been completely cut off by floodwaters, and officials are asking for additional help from state law enforcement and the National Guard.
Woody White, chairman of the board of commissioners of New Hanover County, said Sunday that additional rainfall Saturday night made roads into the city impassable.
(more…)

The head of FEMA, Brock Long, appears on Fox News Sunday for an interview about Hurricane Florence and the subsequent flood damage.

(more…)

As of the 2:00pm Advisory – Florence remains a weakened tropical storm as massive amounts of rain and flooding continue to be a problem for North Carolina and South Carolina. “Rainfall will continue to produce catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.”
Florence is moving slowly toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h) and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through today. A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Sunday. Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio Valley by Monday.

Radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the east of the center in heavy rain bands over water. Gradual weakening is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight. (more)

According to the latest 2:00pm advisory from the National Hurricane Center Florence remains a hurricane with 75mph winds as it meanders on the coast slightly southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.  Coastal communities on the Northern (top side) of the storm are dealing with severe coastal erosion and storm surge; those communities on the Southern (or bottom) of the storm fortunately have outflow winds.
Because Florence is essentially on the border of the Carolinas, the North Carolina coast is being hammered with inbound winds, storm surge and coastal erosion. The South Carolina coast has outbound winds and little storm surge.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly over water. Gradual weakening is forecast later today and tonight. Significant weakening is expected over the weekend and into early next week while Florence moves farther inland.
(more…)

Here’s the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Florence was located by NOAA Doppler radar and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 76.8 West. 50 miles south of Moorehead City, 60 miles east-south-east of Wilmington, North Carolina. Florence is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).
Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft, coastal surface observations, and NOAA Doppler radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Florence core moves inland on Friday.

A turn toward the west-northwest and west at a slow forward speed is expected through Friday, followed by a slow west-southwestward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to move inland across extreme southeastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina Tonight, Friday and Saturday. Florence will then recurve across the western Carolinas and the central Appalachian Mountains early next week.
(more…)

Secretary Wilbur Ross is in North Carolina today touring the NOAA facility and listening to projections of how long Hurricane Florence may disrupt rail, road and shipping transport.  Mr. Ross then calculates the economic impact.

(more…)

There will be a 2:00pm interim update soon.  As of the 11:00am update this morning Florence had dropped wind speed to 105mph (Cat2) but remained on the previously forecast track. Florence is located approximately 145 miles east-southeast of Wilmington and traveling forward at 10mph.
[Hurricane Center] Florence is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a further decrease in forward speed, is expected to continue through today. A turn to the west-northwest and west at an even slower forward speed is expected tonight and Friday, and a slow west-southwestward motion is forecast Friday night and Saturday.

On the forecast track, the center of Florence will approach the coasts of North and South Carolina later today, then move near or over the coast of southern North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina in the hurricane warning area tonight and Friday. A slow motion across portions of eastern South Carolina is forecast Friday night through Saturday night.
(more…)