[National Hurricane Center Data]  As of 11:00am ET Tuesday, Hurricane Ian has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph [Category 3].  Ian is anticipated to continue strengthening in the next 24 hours as it enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane [Cat 3+].  All west coast Florida residents from Bonita Springs to Tampa should use Today to finalize their hurricane preparations.

Today is the last good weather day to finish your preparations and secure your property.  Do not be alarmed but do take this hurricane seriously. This is not a ‘wait and see’ type storm.  All reasonable precautions should be completed today, and all coastal residents are urged to pay close attention to local officials for evacuation orders.  Each locality is different, each coastal locality has a zone of potential flooding and storm surge.  As a general rule, hunker down from wind – but evacuate from water.

[NHC] At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. (more)

Official projections now put the storm further east and slightly south, just off the Florida southwest coast on Wednesday night, with the potential for a 24-hour duration cycle. That is an alarming amount of time for a major hurricane to be centered near or on the coast.  That is a minimum of two tidal cycles, which will make a big difference from prior hurricanes in terms of flooding and the potential for a historic storm surge into inland waterways.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pointed out the difference between Hurricane Charley (’04) and the current Hurricane Ian, with both of them projected to follow a similar path, yet both delivering a different threat.  Charley was a fast-moving category 4 storm carrying lots of wind damage.  Ian is anticipated to be a slow-moving Category 4 storm pushing a lot of water damage and dangerous storm surge.

Additional information provided in the briefing, including 28,000 pre-staged power and utility workers.  WATCH:

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[National Hurricane Center Data]  As of 11:00pm ET Monday, Hurricane Ian has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph [Category 2].  Ian is anticipated to strengthen rapidly in the next 24 hours as it enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane [Cat 3+].  All west coast Florida residents from Bonita Springs to Tampa should use Tuesday to finalize their hurricane preparations.

Tuesday is the last good weather day to finish your preparations and secure your property.  Do not be alarmed but do take this hurricane seriously. This is not a ‘wait and see’ type storm.  All reasonable precautions should be completed today, and all coastal residents are urged to pay close attention to local officials for any evacuation orders.  Each locality is different, each coastal locality has a zone of potential flooding and storm surge.  As a general rule, hunker down from wind – but evacuate from water.

Official projections put the storm just off the Florida west coast on Wednesday night, with the potential for a 24-hour duration cycle. That is an alarming amount of time for a major hurricane to be centered near or on the coast.  That is a minimum of two tidal cycles, which will make a big difference from prior hurricanes in terms of flooding and the potential for a historic storm surge into inland waterways.

Hurricanes can be frightening; downright scary. There’s nothing quite like going through a few to reset your outlook on just how Mother Nature can deliver a cleansing cycle to an entire geographic region.  If this storm rests on/near the coast for the projected duration (24 hrs), things could be much more sketchy than other hurricanes.  This possibility is not something to dismiss.  No one in Florida has a reference.

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With the forecasted path of Hurricane Ian anticipated to bring high water and winds to the west coast of Florida there is the potential for major storm surge in specific regions. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis held a press conference from Pinellas County to outline the latest information. WATCH: 

 ~ Florida Disaster Website as Outlined ~

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — This morning, Governor Ron DeSantis issued updates on Hurricane Ian at the State Emergency Operations Center with Florida Division of Emergency Management Director Kevin Guthrie. Full remarks from this morning’s press conference are available here.

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[National Hurricane Center Link]  Ian is now a hurricane and expected to intensify quickly tonight and tomorrow exiting the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane.  Cone of probability for landfall arrival in the U.S. is still fluctuating. However, all west coast Florida residents should be finalizing their preparations today and tomorrow.  Our chainsaws are sharpened, gear packed, toolboxes loaded. Today, we finish securing our property.

As a general rule, take cover from wind – but evacuate away from water.  Dangerous coastal area storm surges are now predicted from Fort Myers north into Tampa Bay (south side of storm).  Please outline your communication plan with your family.  Select a specific person outside the area to be your immediate contact. That person then relays information to the rest of your family.  Please do this [Example Why].

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to begin later today, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands today, and near or over western Cuba tonight and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, pass west of the Florida Keys late Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday. (link)

Right now, you are in control.  Do not be alarmed – but take every preventative measure your individual situation needs.  Work your hurricane plan and stay focused on what you do control.  Proactive planning prevents piss-poor performance. Work the plan, step by step and focus on what is in front of you.  Ignore the dark imaginings and turn off the national media.  Pay attention to your local officials and local media.

Do your laundry. Sanitize and stage your water storage.  Inventory your supplies.  Organize your tools.  Fill your freezer with water jugs to take up room and freeze.  Test your generator. Stage your extension cords. Stage your battery powered devices. Test your weather radio. Take small steps to prepare.  Secure your home. You are in full control.

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National Hurricane Center Data Here – After two years of relatively uneventful hurricane activity, and with two years of massive migration into the state since the COVID pandemic, there are millions of people potentially going to experience their first hurricane.  Thus, Florida emergency officials are being proactive in their alerts.

There is no cause for alarm, but the unspoken motive for officials to more firmly emphasize preparation is related to this ‘new resident’ dynamic. In the background several FL Civilian Emergency Response Teams (CERT) are now preparing.  Due to the confluence of events, all are is taking this storm seriously.

TD #9 is now Tropical Storm Ian, soon to be Hurricane Ian. – “At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 75.2 West. Ian is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Monday and a northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea today, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian will then approach western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.” (link)

The general forecast path has not changed much in the past 12 hours, but the timeline has slowed as the storm slowly gathers strength.  We are now likely looking at a Wednesday night landfall (projected).  There is a very wide cone of uncertainty and also more time to prepare.

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