While all attention is on the outcome of the national election, a storm notice for Florida is essential.

The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

All Florida east coast residents should pay attention to local officials and state emergency management for guidance in advance of Nicole’s arrival.  All storm preparation should be rushed to completion within the next several hours.  Nicole is anticipated to deliver storm impacts far beyond the immediate hurricane zone.

(Nation Hurricane Center) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 26.5 North, longitude 76.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Thursday, and north or north-northeast on Friday.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will move near or over the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas today and move onshore the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area tonight. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night, and then across the Carolinas Friday and Friday night.

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The National Hurricane Center is advising Florida east coast residents to prepare for hurricane conditions during the Wednesday overnight hours. [NHC Website]  Tropical Storm Nicole is moving quickly toward the Bahamas and will approach the Florida east coast late Wednesday.   Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency to release resources and trigger support mechanisms.

[NOTE: Florida West Coast – Nicole is a large system with tropical storm force winds extending for 380 miles from center.  For SWFL residents in the debris and recovery zone from Ian, the winds from Nicole will be coming from the North, starting soon. Keep this in mind when securing already destabilized structures, roof tarps, fences, debris etc. Anticipate tropical storm force winds arriving from the North tomorrow.]

(NHC) At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 72.7 West. Nicole is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to west-southwest motion should continue through Wednesday. A west-northwest motion is forecast to begin on Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Thursday and Thursday night.

On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will approach the northwestern Bahamas today and tonight, move near or over those islands on Wednesday, and approach the east coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area Wednesday night. Nicole’s center is then expected to move across central and northern Florida into southern Georgia Thursday and Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength by Wednesday and Wednesday night while it is moving near the northwestern Bahamas and approaching the east coast of Florida. (more)

The majority of my advice below is for the Florida EAST COAST:

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The ‘context’ of Ian was shared previously {Go Deep}.  Here we outline things to consider if you are prepping for a hurricane impact and/or deciding whether to stay in your home or evacuate.  Standard hurricane preparations should always be followed.  Protect your family, secure your property and belongings, and prepare for the aftermath.

What you do before the hurricane hits is going to determine where you are in the recovery phase.

Additionally, and this should be emphasized and discussed within your family, if you cannot be self-sufficient in the aftermath – for any reason, then you should evacuate.

Self-sufficiency in this context requires being able to cope for up to several weeks:

(1) potentially without power; (2) potentially without potable running water (3) potentially without internet service; (4) potentially without communication outside the region; and (5) with limited municipal and private sector assistance.   If you decide you cannot deal with these outcomes, you should evacuate.

Additionally, as a family or individual, you should also honestly evaluate:

(1) your physical abilities; (2) your emotional and psychological ability to withstand extreme pressures; and (3) your comfort in losing daily routines, familiar schedules and often overlooked things you might take for granted.  Post hurricane recovery is fraught with stress, frustration and unforeseeable challenges.

I saw a video presented by a structural engineer who was sharing his experience with Hurricane Ian.  I am going to use his video for a few references because even with professional credentials, some of the common mistakes people make are highlighted in his experience.  Keep in mind his video is taken about 30 miles inland from where the majority impact area (coastal region) is located.

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Many CTH readers know I have been involved in hurricane prep and recovery as a longtime member of a civilian emergency response team.  I have physically been through four direct hurricane impacts and responded to recovery efforts in more than fifteen locations, often staying for days or weeks after the initial event.

Through the years I have advised readers on best practices for events before, during and after the storm. In this outline my goal is to take the experience from Hurricane Ian and overlay what worked and what doesn’t work from a perspective of the worst-case scenario.

Hurricane Ian was a worst-case scenario.

Let me be clear from the outset, I am not advising anyone to put greater weight on my opinion or ignore local emergency officials or professionals in/around the disaster areas. What I am going to provide below is my own experience after decades of this stuff, against the backdrop of Ian, and just provide information that you may wish to consider if you are ever faced with a similar situation.

Hurricane preparation can be overlaid against other types of disaster preparation, there are some commonalities.  However, for the sake of those who live on/around the U.S. coastal areas where hurricanes have traditionally made impact, the specifics of preparation for this type of storm are more pertinent.  I’m going to skip over the basic hurricane preparation and get into more obscure and granular details, actual stuff that matters, that many may not be familiar with.

Let me start by sharing a graphic that you may overlay with the information you may have already seen from national media coverage.  The graphic below shows Hurricane Ian in relation to Southwest Florida and points to locations that you may have seen on the news.  The context of understanding Ian is going to be critical when contemplating preparation, so it must be emphasized.

This satellite image was likely taken around 4 to 7 pm on the evening of September 28, 2022, approximately three hours after Hurricane Ian officially made landfall at Bokeelia, a small community on the Northern end of Pine Island. All of my discussion below is from the ‘major impact zone’.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has spent the past several days in/around the western impact zone of Hurricane Ian, the areas hardest hit.

Restoration and recovery work continues overcoming serious obstacles with infrastructure destruction particularly around Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island, Captiva Island, Cape Coral, Pine Island and up toward the Boca Grande pass. These western coastal areas were impacted by sustained 150+ MPH winds for multiple hours as slow-moving Ian crept inland; hence the scale of the destruction.

The power infrastructure is slowly returning to Fort Myers Beach, however, most of the properties are a total loss and/or so heavily damaged power restoration to the structure is unsafe. The work on Sanibel Island is reconstructing the physical power transit system, which will take a long time. According to state officials, approximately 80% of the mainline power grid on Pine Island is now rebuilt; however, many homes are heavily damaged (like FMB) so lines to structures will take longer.

Governor Ron DeSantis gives an update from Burnt Store Marina, which is located between Cape Coral and Punta Gorda on the west. WATCH:

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Governor Ron DeSantis also announced an official request to The Dept of Commerce and NOAA to declare a federal fisheries disaster which would provide relief to families and businesses impacted by the loss of economic activity in the fishery sector.

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No one imagined this was feasible. Every expert put the timeline for repair at around a year.  However, the git r’ done crews and the Florida Dept of Transportation have accomplished a massive feat of reconstruction in phenomenal time.  Major kudos to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and the construction crews who worked every hour of every day, day and night, for two straight weeks and have created/built a temporary bridge to Sanibel Island. [Videos below]

Trust me, having seen the aftermath, this is absolutely remarkable.  The causeway is made up of three bridge spans (A, B, and C) and three spoil islands.

The rapid response construction crews just kept bringing truck after truck of everything imaginable including rocks, concrete slabs, gravel, sand and more to fill in the missing parts of the roadway and spoil islands.  Then they surfaced the road and are now working on paving it in record time.  Today restoration emergency crews drove across the bridges, and they anticipate opening the causeway to residents of Sanibel for civilian use on October 21st. WATCH:

Today the construction crews moved aside to allow, over 200 bucket trucks, 150 electric line and pickup trucks (LCEC, FP&L, Duke Energy) towing 50 trailers and two tractor-trailers carrying first responders to the island.

Additionally, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was on the Fort Myers side of the bridge to celebrate the accomplishment at a press conference.  WATCH:

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There is a particular texture and smell familiar to those who have trekked through saltwater marshes.  In ordinary times the moment when the greyish matter takes custody of your shoe, you quickly ponder whether to stick your hand into it or just buy another pair of sandals and move on… often it’s the latter.

The sand, sediment, dirt and decomposing nature -to include fish bits and wildlife food sources- creates a blended muck and grows slowly over years.  The moist muck does not like to be disturbed.  It has a very particular smell when it is disturbed, until it dries, almost like a natural defense mechanism.  Hurricane Ian disturbed the backwater shoreline inland and introduced that sludge mix to places it was never before, like inside buildings.  Thankfully it is drying out now.

The officials in charge of Fort Myers Beach have determined that almost every structure on the island is unsafe after the storm pushed a massive surge of water onto the island while the wind destroyed the buildings.  Residents are being carefully managed and kept away from areas where search crews are still looking through rubble.

A plan for a limited number of residents to be bussed into one part of the area to look for belongings has been released [link].  Beach officials are calling it, “debris management and the effort to locate our friends and loved ones.”  It is now a full ten days later, and no one wants to use the real words, ‘dead people.’   I think about Ms Veronica being so clear and true in her point a few days ago, “there are dead people and there are survivors.”

Further north and to the west on Pine Island there are lots of survivors.  With the temporary road giving access, there are lots of people picking up bits, fragments, and other important stuff that holds their memories; each bit revisited in the handling of it, many bits thought about tenderly for the first time in decades.   Fragmented bits hold memories, and those memories are exactly what make up the invisible links of our lives.

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As many long-time readers will know, we do have a little bit more than average experience dealing with the aftermath of hurricanes. I am not an expert in the before part; you need to heed the local, very local, professionals who will guide you through any preparation, and neighborhood specific guidelines, for your immediate area.

But when it comes to the ‘after part’, well, as a long-time CERT recovery member perhaps I can guide you through the expectation and you might find some value.

Consider this little word salad a buffet. If you are new to Florida hurricanes, absorb what might be of value pass over anything else.

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[National Hurricane Center Data]  As of 11:00am ET Tuesday, Hurricane Ian has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph [Category 3].  Ian is anticipated to continue strengthening in the next 24 hours as it enters the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane [Cat 3+].  All west coast Florida residents from Bonita Springs to Tampa should use Today to finalize their hurricane preparations.

Today is the last good weather day to finish your preparations and secure your property.  Do not be alarmed but do take this hurricane seriously. This is not a ‘wait and see’ type storm.  All reasonable precautions should be completed today, and all coastal residents are urged to pay close attention to local officials for evacuation orders.  Each locality is different, each coastal locality has a zone of potential flooding and storm surge.  As a general rule, hunker down from wind – but evacuate from water.

[NHC] At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ian was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 83.5 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in a couple of hours, pass west of the Florida Keys later today, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night. (more)

Official projections now put the storm further east and slightly south, just off the Florida southwest coast on Wednesday night, with the potential for a 24-hour duration cycle. That is an alarming amount of time for a major hurricane to be centered near or on the coast.  That is a minimum of two tidal cycles, which will make a big difference from prior hurricanes in terms of flooding and the potential for a historic storm surge into inland waterways.

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pointed out the difference between Hurricane Charley (’04) and the current Hurricane Ian, with both of them projected to follow a similar path, yet both delivering a different threat.  Charley was a fast-moving category 4 storm carrying lots of wind damage.  Ian is anticipated to be a slow-moving Category 4 storm pushing a lot of water damage and dangerous storm surge.

Additional information provided in the briefing, including 28,000 pre-staged power and utility workers.  WATCH:

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