There has to be a purpose to this messaging, though I’m not exactly sure what it is.
President Trump again draws attention to the Ukraine-Russia war creating havoc on the global diesel market. Trump notes that Russia has lost control of its diesel industry:
[source]
The strange thing about this message is that Russia has taken measures exactly the opposite of this framework.
Back in July, when NATO began increased targeting of Russian refinery infrastructure, Russian President Vladimir Putin proactively signed a government order banning the export of Russian diesel fuel. There have been no exports of Russian diesel since, with exceptions to the shipping industry and some humanitarian farm shipments.
Russia is the world’s second largest producer of diesel fuel and as soon as Putin made this announcement global prices of diesel began to rise. Russia then extended the bans, and the current export ban will run from Aug. 1 until Jan. 31, 2027.
Within the export controls there’s no doubt Russia is sending some diesel fuel to allied nations who are not part of the NATO attack alliance. In essence, Putin is controlling who gets the Russian output and the “ban” on exports simply puts the Russian government in control of it. This is what they call “intergovernmental agreements” which are not part of the ban itself.
Something about the western messaging on this issue just isn’t making sense.
Summary. Russia’s positon:
- Ban Duration: July 8, 2026 – January 31, 2027
- Products Affected: Diesel, gasoline, marine fuel, gas oils
- Exemptions: Direct producers, humanitarian shipments, intergovernmental agreements
- Reason: Domestic fuel shortages, refinery disruptions, price stabilization
- Global Impact: Reduced diesel supply, higher international prices, market tightening
The ban reflects Russia’s strategy to prioritize domestic fuel security while cautiously allowing limited exports to mitigate economic and geopolitical pressures.
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President Trump would not be messaging against Russia’s interests. There’s an element to this narrative that we cannot yet fully identify.
I suspect President Trump is messaging this issue because he is specifically positioning the USA for an export ban on diesel fuel. All of our “allied” downstream dependents would immediately be in freak out mode if the USA did this. So, President Trump has to enhance the position that diesel is increasingly a national security interest right now.
That’s how the issue reconciles.
President Trump putting an export ban on U.S. diesel would be intensely damaging to Europe, specifically the EU-NATO group. However, that same U.S. ban on exports would increase the pressure on Europe to support a solution to the conflict.
An easy way to expand Americas Diesel fuel pool is to temporarily pull back the 15 ppm sulfur requirement on ULSD which will expand the pool by 10-15 percent and then stop exports.
First, President Trump asks Ukraine to stop targeting Russian refineries. Now he is practically blaming Russia for losing control. Very uncharacteristic of him, not speaking from a position of leverage. This is not going in the right direction.
Take your pessimist Crap elsewhere…. sometimes you let the enemies reveal themselves… and that is exactly what he’s done.
Trump told Z not to target diesel.
NATO and Z targeted diesel.
And Trump says this?
No anger at Z.
No anger at NATO targeting American midterms.
MAKE THEM SUFFER!
I completely understand the acute pain Americans are suffering at the pump, and at the grocery store. To this I will add: The “Greatest Generation” endured much more hardship for a much longer period to ensure we achieved victory in WWII with much less whining and complaining.
you definitely have a point, though there are a LOT of other mitigating factors this time:
1-we were promised otherwise
2-normalcy bias does not take long to set in; i’ve heard all this whataboutism regarding the “historical” mortgage interest rate, too, but that doesn’t make it easier to buy a home.
3-we have had 2-3 generations of comfort since that time to create a weak people whose souls are deeply damaged, and i think we all know the “great men make good times…” adage. we are a LONG way from that sense of resilience, unity and cohesion as a culture and society.
4-the slogans aside, this was not even remotely as close to an existential threat as WW2 (and i think there is a lot of plausible debate to be had whether that was, either).
5-war has always been unpopular with americans, and we never got to debate it as a society. in 1941, the people’s representatives declared war and we agreed to send our blood and treasure away to fix a perceived problem. no such thing has occurred this time. if congress is useless and impotent, thats a big problem, but it also means we do NOT AGREE to proceed.
What I’m not understanding about diesel and gas production is why President Trump isn’t using the war powers act or an emergency declaration to build domestic production capacity here.
If the US is able to provide all the diesel that the world needs, that does not let us press the EU to stop its aggression. Simply more diesel for everybody is only good in the right context.
However?
“President Trump putting an export ban on U.S. diesel would be intensely damaging to Europe, specifically the EU-NATO group.”
“*However*, that same U.S. ban on exports would increase the pressure on Europe to support a solution to the conflict.“
However??