We can expect the pace of things to become increasingly fast in the next few weeks.

To our north, a small percentage of Canadians are just beginning to realize what the term “Associate Member” really means when it comes to a Canada joining with the European Union on strategic objectives.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has been selling a sovereignty argument to his constituents within his political package of antagonisms toward the U.S. trade team and President Trump. However, Europe has far greater restrictions and regulations on trade autonomy than the USA.  If Canada is to be partnered to the EU, then suddenly Canada has to adhere to a higher level of trade restrictions.  The EU makes the rules.

With Europe dictating trade standards, rules of production, manufacturing, access etc. Canada is no longer in alignment with the USMCA.  This plays right into the hands of President Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who would prefer two distinctly different bilateral trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.

The question then becomes, when do Trump and Greer announce the termination of the USMCA.  The most reasonable answer is after the U.S. and Mexico finalize a bilateral trade agreement.  With the U.S. and Mexico agreement confirmed, the Canadian leverage evaporates.

Carney had previously tried to pressure Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum not to reach bilateral terms.  However, again return to what Carney just did with Europe.  Telling Mexico to sit on their hands while organizing a separate side deal with Europe is more than a little hypocritical; in fact, it is really, really insulting.

This opens the door for Trump and Greer to exploit Carney’s self-centered political duplicity, and when you understand that dynamic you have context for why there’s suddenly a warmer embrace of such an agreement by Sheinbaum.  Any hope that Carney had to rely on Mexican favor toward them, was just eliminated by the gleeful backslapping in Strasbourg France witnessed by everyone.

That’s why we are seeing reports that Mexico and the United States have reached terms for a bilateral agreement.  Yesterday, President Trump and President Sheinbaum held a phone call to discuss final aspects of mutual agreement.

That leadership call doesn’t happen unless Greer and his Mexican counterpart, Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrand, have already ironed out the sticking points and eliminated any points of friction.

The trade negotiations led by Greer and Ebrand have been conducted over the past year as Canada sat on the sidelines and organized a political economic narrative on behalf of the British Commonwealth.  Those U.S-Mexico terms are now complete as noted by President Trump and Claudia Sheinbaum.

I strongly suspect the next meeting between Greer and Ebrand sometime around September 28th will contain an announcement of a completed bilateral free trade agreement.

Once that U.S-Mexico announcement is made, the next step will be the formal notice to Canada that the United States is terminating the USMCA, or what Canadians call CUSMA.

It is no longer possible for Carney to pick up the phone and call Sheinbaum, given recent events and his behavior as it pertains to bilateral terms between Canada and the European Union.  Carney has done this to himself, to his own position and to the Canadian people.

MEXICO CITY, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said on Friday that she spoke with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, and they reached some agreements.

Washington is speeding up its efforts to reach a bilateral trade deal with Mexico before the US midterm elections in October.

Sheinbaum did not provide details about the agreements during her daily press conference, but described the call as “very good.” (more)

This series of actions and consequences has been very predictable from the outset.  However, most people have been unwilling or unable to see exactly how President Donald Trump has outmaneuvered Prime Minister Carney every step of the way.

President Trump used Carney’s ego and Canada’s hubris against him/them by directing the Canadian Prime Minister to take actions against his own interests.  Carney never realized the guiding hand behind the path he was following, and suddenly if Carney now turns to the American congress and requests support, he is facing an audience that points out the incompatibility of his Canada-EU trade position.

People will try to deny that President Trump handled this perfectly, but when you look at all of the political elements Trump needed to overcome in order to get to this moment, there’s no denying that if this very specific sequence of events did not occur in exactly the way they occurred, the United States would not be in this incredibly strong position.

This was gamed out perfectly, and honestly, it’s been a lot of fun to watch!