I am fielding a lot of questions about President Trump’s direct announcement today to place a 50% tariff on autos from Canada contrast against the USMCA (CUSMA) and other trade matters.
First, for President Trump this is not political; it’s pure economics. Donald Trump has been talking about this issue for 40+ years. Trump has held the same position about American manufacturing and exploitation of U.S. industrial jobs long before he officially became a politician. President Trump is not looking at the politics of the matter, nor does the midterm election play a part of the consideration.
This is the economics of the thing, politics be damned, and the Canadian politicians have no concept of how structurally important this is to Donald Trump personally. For Canada it’s political, for Trump it’s business – deliberate, direct and consequential business. There are trillions at stake.
VIA TRUTH SOCIAL – “Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American Patriots, and has long created a 60 Billion Dollar Deficit between our two Countries. Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE! On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%. Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS. Canada will be treated like a State no longer! On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with. They feel entitled, and yet, WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US! They do 95% of their business with the U.S., with us, the exact opposite! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
The second aspect to the inbound questions center around the USMCA (CUSMA) and anticipated legal challenges to the 50% tariffs in violation of the USMCA trade agreement. Those questions are coming from people who don’t understand the first point above, in combination with what we have outlined for years, President Trump does not want the multilateral USMCA to remain. Trump has been very direct about this.
As to the legality of the matter. If you accept the USMCA is not valued as a reciprocal trade tool by the U.S. administration, then you set yourself up to understand there are two options available.
First, President Trump can terminate the USMCA as a matter of principle, based on the current trade conflict. There is no justification required in the action: Option 34:6:1
Second, President Trump can terminate U.S. involvement in the USMCA as an outcome of Canada signing a trade agreement with a “non-market economy,” China. Specifically, the part of the Canada-China trade agreement that permits Chinese autos to enter North America. That is a direct violation of the USMCA should President Trump choose to give a justification: Article 32:10
That violation was the reason for Mark Carney to talk to President Trump at the G7 in Paris and try to assure him that Canada put limits and quotas on the Chinese imports. However, Carney’s justification doesn’t matter from the perspective of the U.S. and the potential for Canada to try and litigate against President Trump’s tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO)
If Canada wants to take a legal path to try and force the U.S. to remain in the USMCA they will fail. However, this goes back to the same structural problem that Canada has, thus far, even considered. President Trump doesn’t want to be in a multilateral trade agreement with Mexico and Canada at the same time. He wants two distinctly different bilateral free trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.
As a consequence of that baseline, all of Canada’s banter about granular details within the USMCA/CUSMA trade agreement is moot. Tariff this, tariff that, respond with this, respond with that, all of it is moot if you recognize the USMCA is going to dissolve. However, Canada refuses to fathom that could take place.
Additionally, Canada could not/would not promise to stop Chinese steel being transshipped into auto parts & then into the U.S. market. Why? Because the U.S. requires a strict “melt and pour” rule.
Steel and aluminum must be melted and poured in North America to qualify for preferential treatment. This stops Chinese steel from entering Canada, getting light processing, and crossing the border as “North American” content to evade tariffs.
Why is this a problem for Canada specifically (not Mexico)? Well, steel and aluminum cannot be made without coal and gas (heavy carbon emissions), because the core issue is heat (joules) for the melting. You cannot make molten metal from renewable energy, (ie. windmills and solar farms) you need massive heat (oil, gas, coal). It’s simple science, you need joules.
Canada’s energy policy, climate change stuff, is about the creation of electricity and non-carbon emissions. They have decarbonized their industry, and as a consequence have disconnected their ability to melt metal. That’s why they import rolled steel and cast aluminum ingots from China.
Their choice to decarbonize is exactly why Steel and Aluminum tariffs against Canada are structurally irreconcilable.
PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Lots of “bluster” from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the Canadian Province of Ontario, but who is better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer! The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive — It’s where they get all of their money and, because of their current bad leadership, primarily Governor Carney, and his Flunky, Ford, they will not be allowed to keep taking advantage of the United States — Their key to survival.
Remember, much of the Electricity, Oil, and Gas that Canada gets is transported through the U.S.A. Someone should get these clowns to “fall in line” or, the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE! Canada’s Unemployment Rate is now at 10%, and rapidly rising. Their businesses are fleeing for the United States, and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership! The days of ripping off our Farmers, and other Businesses, are OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter.“
Freeland as Grimace! Oh my aching sides… 😀
well, she is a few fries short of a Happy Meal…
The resemblance is totally amazing !!!
One of the funniest pictures I’ve seen. The perfect meme.
Leonia is getting Larger!! 🙂
Formerly known as “The Evil Grimace”…..
I understand the context of the McDonald’s characters, but she resembles Barney the Purple Dinosaur more accurately!
She looks like she lost weight🥴
Trump’s actions based on long-held beliefs on finance and economics resulting in tariffs and bilateral agreements are majorly incongruous with his beliefs about work visas (H1B1, etc) and protection of the individual American worker it seems to me.
Evidently there are 1M work visas and millions of unemployed, or under-employed, men in the US.
Perhaps the businesses coming back stateside will settle your angst.
Jobs, leo.
That’s what’s on your mind, right?
Close to 3 Million Illegal Aliens have been sent home . . . who were stealing the jobs of the least skilled US workers . . .
Unemployment in the USA is around 4% today . . .
US Steel just outproduced Japan for the first time in Decades . . .
USA is the No. 1 G7 Economy today . . . other 6 are not even close . . . Canada of course is LAST !
Factories under construction, AI facilities being built, huge Chip Factory in Arizona . . .
USA now the largest Oil and Gas Exporter . . .
Every Month more stuff is opening up . . .
Leo . . . if you make your product in the USA there are NO Tariffs . . .
Why onshore if we continue to import workers? Labor participation still low.
It is time to end giveaway programs in the U.S. no more food stamps, free housing, welfare etc. end all federal giveaways.
Instead move these freeloaders to wherever the jobs are and put the grifters to work.
You don’t work, you don’t eat.
None of the giveaway programs were ever the responsibility of the Federal Government, nor should the Feds have any direct influence over the governing of the Union States that are actually independent sovereign nations. Federal responsibilities are strictly limited to those listed in Article 3, Section 8 of their contract, The Constitution of the United States of America (1789). Their jurisdiction is within International Land and Sea, not National Land and Soil. They have usurped the authority of the nation states.
I understand the sentiment, but the problem is that most of the available jobs in this country require a considerable amount of training. Taking “freeloaders” from hotbeds of unemployment ,who don’t know how to do much other than screw, drink and smoke dope, isn’t going to be very helpful to many American employers.
As a consumer, the effect of tarifgs on goods boils down to a Choice at the Market’s aisle: “Do I buy the best product I can afford, or splurge to buy the tariffed one I want?” In a matter of months, if not weeks, consumers of Canadian products may become accustomed to other substitute brands and products creating a new consumer habit.
The issue of immigration is separate and different to that of trade, and has been corrupted by decades of weakening by foreign interests and the US Chamber of commerce. Ideally, worker’s visas should be time-limited to one or two years and non-renewable, nor lead to any other immigration status adjustment. They should require the worker to return to his home country for a period to be with his/her family before applying for an additional tour. In other words, it should be more onerous to tbe employer than hiring and developing workers already here tariffs make foreign goods as costly as domestic. Thus, the primary excuse for importing STEM slaves vanishes. One can make the argument that Tariffs are a tool to maintain our essential industries properly staffed with American labor.
The tariff should be enacted today along with an announced dissolution of USMCA in 6 months.
Exactly. Why wait until Jan 2027? Let’s git ‘r done now!
he’s giving a landing spot to Carney to shine the light on the messy lipsticked pig
Yeah, but every time Trump gives these guys a bit of time to do the right thing, the other countries just run the clock. We literally have 2 years left, and we are running out of time. I don’t trust Vance to continue Trump’s policies, which means we have to grab everything yesterday to onshore jobs by 2028. The GoP have already shown they value globalism over the American worker, and the Democrats will sell their own mothers for more Socialism. Iran is way past its expiration date, as is Ukraine, the EU, and NATO. But here we are, no balanced budget, not even a fraud reduction, just more debt piling on.
Tempus fugit, Not much time left for our POYUS.
Trump on Oprah. Same views then and now.
“It’s strictly business.”
And sovereign economics!
🤣 😂
I really appreciate President Trump and his steadfast dedication to get the best deals for US that he can! He’s the Best!
McDonald’s has it’s place in my rotation, but that might be over. Man, that’s rough. It’s the Keystone Kops of any kind of policy up there.
That last pic is GOLD! 😂😂
Canada, Iran, Mark Elias….its too much winning lol.
whats the news on Elias? i missed it
Maybe its the mail in ruling, yea that’s it
Grimace, bah ha ha
Sundance, can you make the Z-man the hamburglar?
Amazing how these little league losers try to interfere with our midterms by using the very freedoms they deny their own citizens. How are they any different from Islamists who are doing the same thing? You can’t hate them enough
Grimace reference is fantastic.
She’s fat as hell, but I think that pic is SLIGHTLY doctored.
never trust politicians who are unable to exercise self-control
I was a steelworker for a number of years up here in Alberta. Different clients on different contracts would specify different types of steel for their projects, and it was interesting to see how steel from different countries tended to conform to a certain character.
American steel was effectively our baseline. Not the absolute best of the lot but generally very good quality and exhibiting relatively few defects.
Russian steel was course, rough stuff requiring a lot of pre-treatment but usually solid enough to get the job done.
Chinese steel was absolute shit, pitted and corroded out the wazoo, with such a high failure rate I suspect it outweighed whatever savings the clients thought that they were making by using it.
Japanese steel was hands-down the best.
Worked in a plant that made a product completely out of steel. Many different jobs there. Worked for years in a cold roll steel mill portion of it. Never used Chinese or Russian steel but did use U.S. and Japanese steel. I found your analysis spot on with the American steel to be the most consistent of the two.
To be fair, my sample-size for Japanese steel is relatively small. It was pretty rare that it would be brought in for a contract.
Somewhere I’ve got some pictures of my bent drill bits. Seriously, bent like melted candles while using a hand drill. Turns out, they weren’t made in USA.
Can confirm LOL.
It seems to me, I remember that Japan was using electric furnaces for making steel. You would probably know. Is that right?
I seem to remember hearing something about arc-furnaces being used to recycle scrap-steel (might have been from one of our electricians; he loved all that sort of thing, anything electrical) but it’s not something I really know anything about, unfortunately.
Arc furnaces sure, but I’m thinking that Japan imports a lot of petroleum coke also for the steelmaking. Would have to check to be sure.
I used to work the steel mills in the Mon Valley and the worst steel (coiled) I saw came from Italy. We made a lot of coiled steel back then. After we doctored that Italian steel, maybe it was for those old wringer/washer tubs my mom used to use. Memories.
Find out, they will!
I wonder how many more provinces besides Alberta will soon try to opt out of Carney’s Cartel…
Also will the EU invade those provinces to stop them?
October is just around the corner!
The EU invading Alberta or other provinces on the behalf of Ottawa would be a quick way to break the EU and or NATO both.
Provinces have effectively exerted individual trade policy with the USA. Therefore, the US should negotiate with the provinces individually.
All quotes: ” Canada has something we desperately need, and that gives it a different weapon: an export tax, a charge on its own oil as it leaves the country. Think of it as a tariff in reverse. Canada has used it on us before. In 1973, of all years, Canada taxed its oil exports to the United States, then put them on a schedule to be phased out completely. That squeeze is why the chart above bottoms out in 1981. Just last year, Ontario briefly slapped a 25% surcharge on the electricity it sends to three American states. And here is the twist: we could not answer in kind, because the U.S. Constitution flatly bans taxing our own exports. Canada faces no such limit. If Canadian oil gets caught in this crossfire, the cost of making diesel in America jumps at the worst possible moment.”
https://www.data4thepeople.com/p/running-out-of-diesel
That was Canada’s first marxist PM . . . ole PET father of Justin . . . he was a big fan of Chairman Mao . . .
Not going to happen because Canada is broke . . . and the USA is the only substantial customer.
But Alberta may decide to vote on leaving . . . if they do, how long till BC and Sask do the same?
hold on google says Venezuela has the same crude as Canada only twice as much of it .
My thoughts exactly.
Good luck with that.
Canada does not have the ability to use its own oil. It can’t transport its oil to where its oil demand resides.
Canada’s refineries in the populated east can’t handle the heavy sour tar-sands oil. Most of what they refine comes from… the USA or from Africa or Middle East. Also Canadian refineries cannot supply all the refined products Canada needs, so they must import refined products from … the USA.
Neither does Canada have the ability to export more than a tiny fraction of its oil. There are proposals to build a mega-pipeline but those are just proposals, not reality.
Canada exports its oil to the US and then imports refined product from the US. If Canada tariffs its exports to the US it is actually tariffing its own imports of refined fuels.
So Canada can either export oil to the US or else it must drastically curtail oil production. There’s no place to put the excess. Electricity is even worse. If Canada doesn’t export excess hydro-power to the US it can’t sell it. You can’t bottle electricity or load it onto a ship very well.
This video explains the Canadian predicament very nicely.
https://youtu.be/IqnVaXaBKvU
Reminicient of the “peak oil” mantra – fool me once, shame on…
I think people would more likely buy into a lack of refining capacity.
Thank you President Trump putting
America first, we are with you 💯💯💯💥
🦅🇺🇸✝️💥💥💥
These tariffs should also be levied against the Lincolns and Buicks that are produced in China and any “American” car not produced in this country.
The cold hard image!!
Is that the Canadian Trade Delegation in the last photo or their EU puppet masters?
Could have been either or both…right up until Freeland ate them all for dinner.
These are the 10 car models assembled in Canada in 2025If you’re looking for a comprehensive “buy local” list of products out of the Canadian automotive industry, this is it
https://driving.ca/car-culture/lists/canadian-made-car-models-built-assembly-tariff
PDT: “Remember, much of the Electricity, Oil, and Gas that Canada gets is transported through the U.S.A.”
Wait a minute. Quebec sells us hydro electricity—without it, we’d be bereft here in the NE. Alberta sells us petroleum—that’s what the Keystone pipeline was for, before Autopen cancelled it. So what is the President talking about?
I suspect he meant to say that their market access is through the US infrastructure
Thanks. That “Readers added context” paragraph clarified much.
“USMCA = NAFTA = Chinese Spigot!”
Maybe the Mexicans still have more pride about their nation than the Canadians do. But the simple fact remains that both of these so-called “trade agreements” were nothing more than plumbing to allow China, in particular, to dump products into the United States.
And the two countries in question – one of them maybe realizes this now, the other doesn’t yet – were always being exploited. Nothing more or less. Did your country ever receive any benefit from it? No.
Repeat after me: “Make [Mexico|Canada] GREAT Again!”
Try again. And again. Again. Again. Again. … … There! Now, was that really so hard?
“M[xxx]GA” is not just an acronym on a hat. It has to be what you do. Because, if you are not championing “your country” in every single thing that you do, absolutely no one else ever will. (Why should they?)
Dr. Chester Karrass: “In life, you don’t get what you deserve. You get what you negotiate.”
https://x.com/NSceptic11501/status/2091962213112115497?s=20
And yet the “I’m a union man” lunkheads here in the Midwest continue to persist in their ignorant, msm fed TDS. I know many who refuse to look honestly at their “orders” from their union masters to be dyed in the wool vote dem zombies. If they could only open their eyes they could see who is truly on their side. Brainwashed. Stupified. Useful idiots.
Yup, vote democrat or dont vote was the way it was. Still that way for anybody i know who still lives back east
Freeland was in line at the MacDonalds and her pager went off the family behind her panicked and stared screaming Look out She’s backing up !
Que the lefts judges blocking every thing Trump is trying to accomplish here. These leftists have no basic understanding of economics, only that Orange man bad and look what he’s doing to our ally in the North.
Canadians I know think Trump is messed up. Well the they watch CBC and BBC, so they are fed pure propaganda. I don’t know why people don’t understand when Canadian good flow freely here and none of ours up there. Pretty cut and dry! Go Trump !!
I always wondered what happened to Violet Beauregard after she got turned into a giant blueberry at Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory. Now we know.
Let’s see how things look for Canada in 3 or 6 months.
They may feel very different about things then.
It won’t take long. Carney, Ford and the lot will be taking a ton of phonecalls from Industry leaders ready (forced now that the grift is up) to flee.
“Steel and aluminum must be melted and poured in North America to qualify for preferential treatment. This stops Chinese steel from entering Canada, getting light processing, and crossing the border as “North American” content to evade tariffs.”
If your environmentalism ends at China’s border and your labor solidarity disappears at the tariff line, you’re not defending workers or the planet—you’re on your knees giving Beijing a tariff-free blowjob while calling the political grease “free trade.”
Liberals lol
The lesser Ford is threatening to cut electrical power to those parts of our northern states that get electricity from across the border in Ontario. But how will that work if an hour after he cuts the juice PT terminates the flow of all electricity, oil, and gas that Canada gets from or through the U.S.? Canada simply has no cards, except of course for the jokers.
The sooner this happens, the better with winter coming.
If this also manages to kill off the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) running up our electric bills, I’m all in.
What constraints or restraints keep these tariffs from happening immediately ?
They should be imposed now not in 5 months.
Hahahaha! Ahhh, that meme with the Ronald McDonald, the fries, the Hamburgler and the extra Fat Lady whom we are familiar with but isn’t really that fat, well, Hahahahaha!
Can’t stop laughing!
Can these folks really be so dumb not to know they are playing with fire!?
Still laughing!
Laughter really is best medicine. 🙂
why wait until 1/1/2027? Does he have to? Why f-around with these people? They are completely clueless. We might feel some small pain in the interim, but they would take the gas pipe right away.
Just drop the hammer. So tired of all the talk…….
For those wondering about the Grimace character:
(I know, it’s Wikipedia)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grimace_(character)
According to Google AI, the U.S. annual output of aluminum from ore is about 670,000 tons (down from a peak of 4.65 million tons in 1980). Canada reportedly produces 3.3 million tons of aluminum from ore per year. These numbers do not appear to agree with Sundance.
Google AI says that the United States mines and processes roughly 38 to 48 million metric tons of iron ore, while Canada processes roughly 11.5 to 12.3 million tons into crude steel at a rate of per year. These numbers do agree with Sundance.
Is Google AI lying, or is Sundance using incorrect numbers for aluminum?
That’s a great photo of freeland what a beauty as most liberals are…🤣
Is that really her?! What happened?
These economic moves are brilliant, the equivalent of kicking a wastrel runt out of our “basement” without a dime.
Good luck whining to China. Scott Bessant’s announcement today (pertaining to any aid to Iran from any nation) puts the squeeze on them, too.
Support from true dictatorships comes at a very steep price. No matter how much shade these Canadian fantasists throw at us because they want their way, they’ll learn the difference the hard way.
Compounding their problems – loss of businesses…
Another historic Canadian mill is dying.
Howe Sound Pulp & Paper.
Port Mellon.
Opened in 1909.
First paper made on that site 117 years ago.
Last day is October 19.
400 jobs gone.
Another thousand around it on the Sunshine Coast.
The local mayor says that’s about 15% of the workforce.
A tugboat captain who’s been there 22 years said it out loud:
no more pulp after 117 years.
Next to somebody dying, worst news he’s ever had.
Domtar calls it “indefinite idling.”
$500 million poured in since 2010.
380,000 tonnes of pulp off the market.
Same company already killed Crofton last winter.
B.C. forestry has lost about 15,000 jobs since 2022.
More than 20 mills gone since 2023.
Where’s the national press?
Ottawa will do a week of tariff theatre.
This town gets a press release and a last shift.
That mill didn’t fail because the guys on the floor quit.
It failed because the country stopped treating production like it matters.
Once that knowledge walks out the gate, it doesn’t come back.
Alternate link:
https://nitter.poast.org/JayGenXer/status/2091528461739348403#m
wow
Such a shame. I’ve always hated to see good industry leave (it never “fails”). When the Milwaukee foundry my grandpa worked in closed? Sorrow.
It’s good to work with your hands. Making something that says I built that, I left a piece of my butt behind there is satisfying. Pride in a job well done.
My guess is that he will use the latter.
CONgress will have a very rough road attempting to interfere there as Empress Piglosi interfered previously.
What is to stop a Democrat president elected in 2028 from just reinstating the USMCA with Canada? Nothing I know of.
I expect that is what Canada is banking on.
Ahhh, those memes/pics are priceless! Thank you Sundance!!!
Good Lord, that Freeland is a porker! If she had to “haul ass”, she’d have to make FOUR TRIPS! Hasn’t she heard about GLP-1 semaglutide drugs yet?
If you don’t produce things you are a thief.