I am fielding a lot of questions about President Trump’s direct announcement today to place a 50% tariff on autos from Canada contrast against the USMCA (CUSMA) and other trade matters.

First, for President Trump this is not political; it’s pure economics.  Donald Trump has been talking about this issue for 40+ years. Trump has held the same position about American manufacturing and exploitation of U.S. industrial jobs long before he officially became a politician.  President Trump is not looking at the politics of the matter, nor does the midterm election play a part of the consideration.

This is the economics of the thing, politics be damned, and the Canadian politicians have no concept of how structurally important this is to Donald Trump personally.  For Canada it’s political, for Trump it’s business – deliberate, direct and consequential business.  There are trillions at stake.

VIA TRUTH SOCIAL – “Canada has been ripping off the United States of America for years. Their ridiculously high tariffs on our Farmers and farm products has made life impossible for these great American Patriots, and has long created a 60 Billion Dollar Deficit between our two Countries. Not sustainable, and NOT ANYMORE! On January First, 2027, Tariffs on all Cars, Trucks, both large and small, Automotive Parts, and Steel, will be increased to 50%. Build in the U.S. and there are ZERO TARIFFS. Canada will be treated like a State no longer! On Trade, and in other ways, also, they are among the worst Nations in the World to deal with. They feel entitled, and yet, WE DON’T NEED CANADA, THEY NEED US! They do 95% of their business with the U.S., with us, the exact opposite! Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

~ President DONALD J. TRUMP

The second aspect to the inbound questions center around the USMCA (CUSMA) and anticipated legal challenges to the 50% tariffs in violation of the USMCA trade agreement.  Those questions are coming from people who don’t understand the first point above, in combination with what we have outlined for years, President Trump does not want the multilateral USMCA to remain.  Trump has been very direct about this.

As to the legality of the matter. If you accept the USMCA is not valued as a reciprocal trade tool by the U.S. administration, then you set yourself up to understand there are two options available.

First, President Trump can terminate the USMCA as a matter of principle, based on the current trade conflict.  There is no justification required in the action:  Option 34:6:1

Second, President Trump can terminate U.S. involvement in the USMCA as an outcome of Canada signing a trade agreement with a “non-market economy,” China.  Specifically, the part of the Canada-China trade agreement that permits Chinese autos to enter North America.  That is a direct violation of the USMCA should President Trump choose to give a justification:  Article 32:10

That violation was the reason for Mark Carney to talk to President Trump at the G7 in Paris and try to assure him that Canada put limits and quotas on the Chinese imports. However, Carney’s justification doesn’t matter from the perspective of the U.S. and the potential for Canada to try and litigate against President Trump’s tariffs at the World Trade Organization (WTO)

If Canada wants to take a legal path to try and force the U.S. to remain in the USMCA they will fail. However, this goes back to the same structural problem that Canada has, thus far, even considered. President Trump doesn’t want to be in a multilateral trade agreement with Mexico and Canada at the same time. He wants two distinctly different bilateral free trade agreements; one with Mexico and one with Canada.

As a consequence of that baseline, all of Canada’s banter about granular details within the USMCA/CUSMA trade agreement is moot. Tariff this, tariff that, respond with this, respond with that, all of it is moot if you recognize the USMCA is going to dissolve. However, Canada refuses to fathom that could take place.

Additionally, Canada could not/would not promise to stop Chinese steel being transshipped into auto parts & then into the U.S. market. Why? Because the U.S. requires a strict “melt and pour” rule.

Steel and aluminum must be melted and poured in North America to qualify for preferential treatment. This stops Chinese steel from entering Canada, getting light processing, and crossing the border as “North American” content to evade tariffs.

Why is this a problem for Canada specifically (not Mexico)? Well, steel and aluminum cannot be made without coal and gas (heavy carbon emissions), because the core issue is heat (joules) for the melting. You cannot make molten metal from renewable energy, (ie. windmills and solar farms) you need massive heat (oil, gas, coal). It’s simple science, you need joules.

Canada’s energy policy, climate change stuff, is about the creation of electricity and non-carbon emissions. They have decarbonized their industry, and as a consequence have disconnected their ability to melt metal. That’s why they import rolled steel and cast aluminum ingots from China.

Their choice to decarbonize is exactly why Steel and Aluminum tariffs against Canada are structurally irreconcilable.

PRESIDENT TRUMP – “Lots of “bluster” from Doug Ford, who is the Premier of the Canadian Province of Ontario, but who is better known as the less charismatic, intelligent, and overall unimpressive brother of the late, great, Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer! The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada couldn’t survive — It’s where they get all of their money and, because of their current bad leadership, primarily Governor Carney, and his Flunky, Ford, they will not be allowed to keep taking advantage of the United States — Their key to survival.

Remember, much of the Electricity, Oil, and Gas that Canada gets is transported through the U.S.A. Someone should get these clowns to “fall in line” or, the consequences for Canada will be far WORSE! Canada’s Unemployment Rate is now at 10%, and rapidly rising. Their businesses are fleeing for the United States, and it’s all because of their failed policies, and inept leadership! The days of ripping off our Farmers, and other Businesses, are OVER! Thank you for your attention to this matter.

~President DONALD J. TRUMP

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