The Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) provides the latest data on consumer prices (inflation) [DATA HERE]. We explained in 2021 how inflation would grow on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis until the calendar became more friendly and the government officials could claim “diminished inflation growth.” Well, we are now entering that phase of economic parseltongue.
October consumer prices increased 0.4% over September. However, we are now comparing year-over-year (Y0Y) inflation to the period where last year’s prices had already skyrocketed, so YoY inflation seems to be moderating at 7.7%, it’s a false premise. {Go Deep}
As expected, the energy-driven consumer inflation in the food sector has arrived. The proverbial field inflation is arriving at the fork, and the October CPI now shows the third wave of food price increases we had previously discussed.
Table 2 Details: Egg prices increased +10.1% last month and now 43% higher than last year. Butter +1.9% last month, 26.7% for year. Margarine +1.3% for month, 47.1% for year. Coffee +1.3% for the month, 15.6% for the year.
Heading into baking season we find flour +0.2% for the month, +24.6% for year. Essentially, as expected, all of the holiday foodstuffs are now rising in price as the increased field and commodity prices hit the store shelves.
Some row crops are starting to moderate in price growth, while dairy products continue rising throughout the fall season. It is going to be painful on the checkbook grocery shopping this holiday season.
On the energy front, home heating oil increased 19.8% in October and is now a whopping 68.5% higher than last October. Unleaded gasoline increased another 3.5% and now is now 20.9% higher than last year (Oct ’21), which was already 40% higher than January 2021.
Food, fuel, electricity, home heating and housing costs continue growing monthly, but give the illusion of moderating when compared to last year.
Food away from home (restaurants etc.) are starting to show the cumulative price impacts for restaurants, hotels and cafeterias. Additionally, as the kids returned to school the lunchroom prices have skyrocketed a jaw-dropping +3.8% for October and +95% compared to last year [Table 2]. Packing lunches for kids is going to become an even more important aspect for the family food budget.
The stock market is happy with the news because the lowered 7.7% (YoY) inflation number, a product of the calendar and nothing else, gives optimism the Fed may moderate the increased federal reserve rate hikes. However, don’t count on it because inflation is easily identified as embedded now. Lemons at the grocery store are now $0.99/each.
Think about that. $1 for a single lemon and roughly 50¢ per egg at the supermarket. A full shopping cart of groceries now easily exceeding $200. This is devastating for those on fixed incomes and blue-collar workers.
Wages are nowhere near keeping up with this level of price increase.
(CNBC) The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool.
The index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics release Thursday. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for rises of 0.6% and 7.9%.
Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 6.3% on an annual basis, compared with respective estimates of 0.5% and 6.5%.
A 2.4% decline in used vehicle prices helped bring down the inflation figures. Apparel prices fell 0.7% and medical care services were lower by 0.6%.
“The report overstates the case that inflation is coming in, but it makes a case inflation is coming in,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s pretty clear that inflation has definitely peaked and is rolling over. All the trend lines suggest that it will continue to moderate going forward, assuming that nothing goes off the rails.” (read more)
The Biden energy policy is the root of the consumer inflation. Nothing will happen to moderate overall consumer inflation on Main Street until energy policy changes.
Additionally, with the 2022 election in the rear-view mirror, we should start to see layoffs and unemployment increasing now. The bureaucrats will now let the recession become evident.
I hope all those idiots that voted for Biden have a cold, miserable Winter.
The people bringing this horrific BS to the world will never be cold or hungry
Some will, but it’s really hurting the rest of us.
OMG filled up the propane tank today….it was only half-empty….almost six-hundred dollars……
A new furnace was just installed Tuesday, bottom-of-the-line model……$6500……
Thank heavens somebody in this family shares in Nancy Pelosi’s favorite evil MIC investment or we’d starve and freeze.
How big is your tank, and which state?
I forget the capacity—in winter, we get propane delivered about monthly depending on the wx (Upstate Central NY), only for heating the house (thermostat 60 night 64 day).
The broken furnace was about 30 yrs. old so the new one should be more efficient at least, maybe it’ll even pay for itself since we financed it. Fingers crossed.
Gent who delivered the propane said that people using heating oil are in dire straits.
Every month? Are you using a propane tank for a grill? I had a 1200 square foot home with a standard 500 gal. tank and went thru one a year. Propane company tried saying I wasn’t using enough propane during the course of the year to justify having a 500 gal. tank and wanted to switch it out for a 250 gal. tank so they could charge me 2 delivery fees a year
They’re likely on a fillup plan, usually for a break on price. Upstate NY is no picnic, it gets wicked cold up there. My use in a 1800sq ft home in central CA, which gets cold but not wicked cold, pretty much mirrored yours for decades.
I fired the propane company a number of years ago and went to burning dead trees on the property in the fireplace insert for heat and used small bottles for the other stuff. Usually get a month or so out of a ten gallon bottle for water, dryer, cooktop..
Gonna be a tough winter for many. We’re on cheap hydro here in OR and winters at the coast aren’t rough. I run a couple space heaters and they do fine. Usually the electric bill hits around 90 bucks a month in the winter. So far, the price per kwh hasn’t gone up, still just under 8 cents per. For now.
“Wicked cold” … you made me laugh. Not to worry … lots more windmills on the way.
Every month? I have a 250 gallon tank, but is only for cooking/canning, and hooking up the generator in an emergency. Mine can last around 14 months and I cook every single day from scratch!
Well, it’s all on Biden and his current congress till at least early next year. When they pass the problem on and shift blame. Watch them cook the numbers till then and begin the narrative for 2024. While the masses remain distracted and hypnotized.
John Kerry spills the beans at U.N.’s COP27 meeting: They want to replace capitalism with a new economic system – Leo Hohmann
“The World Economic Forum’s climate change agenda was “modeled” off the effort to roll out vaccines during the Covid pandemic, John Kerry said during a COP27 panel discussion in Egypt on Tuesday.
That means we can all look forward to high-pressure, coercive government tactics, and not only from the government but from corporate elites.
[…]
“These globalists are on a mission to destroy not only the individual freedom that millions of Westerners have enjoyed in the Post-World War II era, but they also plan to destroy the market capitalism that led to a prosperous middle class. As long as the middle class is prosperous, it remains independent and capable of critical thinking. Wipe out their wealth and you wipe out their ability to think independently and make their own decisions.”
[…]
“So by purposely drying up the food supply, paying farmers not to produce, forcing them to drastically reduce the use of fertilizers, making them cull their herds of livestock and replace that protein in the human diet with crickets and other insects, this is somehow going to be more “sustainable” and feed more people? This is the World Economic Forum/United Nations agenda that Pope Francis promotes, so don’t believe him when he says he’s for a more equitable, sustainable, peaceful world.
This pope is a deceiver. John Kerry is a deceiver. They talk about climate change in a context that makes people think they’re trying to benefit humanity. But when you lift the veneer of rhetorical altruism, what you find is an extremely anti-human line of policies that support the greater U.N. depopulation agenda.”
According to the Independent Sentinel, Francis “wants the UN – the dictator’s club – to lead the world with this new system that sounds a lot like the World Economic Forum’s system.”
That’s because it is all the same tyrannical system being promoted right now by the four-legged beast — the political, the economic/corporate, the academic/media and the religious/spiritual realms.”
https://leohohmann.com/2022/11/10/john-kerry-spills-the-beans-at-u-n-s-cop27-meeting-they-want-to-replace-capitalism-with-a-new-economic-system/
First. They take away Free Speech … then they take everything else away. And nobody is allowed to even mention it.
Pope Francis has gout because he won’t stop gorging himself on cured ham. Such a complete phony.
He has gout because of too many carbs.
The Middle Class is a Crown Jewel of Western Society. Not only does it provide choices for its members, but it is also a bulwark against extremism and tyranny–which is exactly why these Globalist pricks hate it.
They prefer the Commandante’s Hacienda-model: Elites and their Serfs–because their father comes to steal, kill and destroy.
Depopulation is well under way. In the UK since May this year, 24,000 people under the age of 25 have died from heart conditions. The vax is the kill pill. They want to reduce global population by 2 billion, and remove the age group more likely to be reproducing.
My answer is … YOU FIRST!! SET THE EXAMPLE, you arrogan, insufferable spoiled brat.
Sell all your homes, move into a rented, low-ebd 2 BR apartment, sell your yachts, cook your own food, clean your own house, give everything you own to the climate exchange, work checking groceries. Live that way for 5 years, and THEN come back and tell us how it is.
SET THE EXAMPLE. YOU FIRST!
at 7.7 % inflation, your money is worth half as much in 9.5 years
what you bought for $100 today will cost over $200 ten years from now
https://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html?cstartingamount2=100&cinrate2=7.7&cinyear2=9.5&calctype=2&x=69&y=24#forward
We live in YOLO world. Ten years means nothing, it’s just too futuristic for anyone to care. Ten minutes is where the cool kids live….
can’t argue with you there, Miss
Well … not exactly. Because I’ve been told that the planet won’t even be here in ten years. If we don’t destroy our greedy, capitalist ways … we will have torched the planet into oblivion in ten years.
WE are not doing anything. The Sun takes care of everything in the end, and that is what we are currently experiencing. Solar minimum will cause droughts and extreme heat. The elites know they can’t feed everyone.
Leave the system and feed yourself.
Can you just imagine these people living in the new green deal world order?
After the bounce?
Imagination is the most rare of qualities.
Even the genius Spielberg could only come up with a pointless remake of West Side Story.
The average person cannot foresee the hell that the Democrats are creating by fighting the chimera of global warming. And the people who happen to be in power, Republican or Democrat, will absorb the wrath.
For a quick approximation use the rule of 72. 72/rate=time to double. 72/8 = 9.
all those stupid socialism lib’s vote for fake president Joe Biden and Democracy have a Big trouble with money.
They can’t do basic financial planning let alone fill out their own income tax forms. Here is Scott Adam’s list but I would add: 11: learn to file your income taxes by yourself. We used to get 2 sets of forms from the post office and fill them in with pencils and pens.
Great advice. I followed it, and some stuff from PDJT and Robert Bruss decades ago and thought I had it all planned out. Then life happens.
While survival skills are important, we should remember this is an engineered destruction of the country and attack on our lives under color of law.
Those of us who lived under inflationary and recessionary periods in the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s etc, we know what normal looks like. This isn’t normal.
Buy a house or rent an apartment close to where you work.
Gas will become extremely expensive. Or gas will become simply unavailable.
Riding the bus will become the only possible means of transit.
The city of Toronto, where I live, is now being resolutely crisscrossed with subway lines.
Some of these lines have almost no riders. Small potatoes.
If you build it, they will come..
Inflation is not moderating at only 7.7% Inflation is compounding at 7.7%
Yikes
I used to get super annoyed that, on a major cross street which I use a lot here in Manhattan, I had to battle through an avenue-long throng of people selling food which they obtained through various government programs.
As the price of food started rising, I thought, “Why am I paying $5-$6 for canned chicken at the supermarket when I can buy it here for $1.00 or $1.25?” So, after buying and tasting one, over the course of a few weeks I bought 40 cans. Expiration date: 6/24.
If and when the SHTF, we’ll be chowing down on lots of chicken dinners. 😉
Seriously, though, we’re not poor and we mostly plan our meals around sale items, but I don’t even remember the last time we had a steak. Hellman’s mayo is now either $8.99 or $10.99/30 oz., depending on the supermarket, so we’ve ordered it in bulk from Amazon. Ditto for other items with outrageous supermarket pricing. All this time and effort, as well as paring down all luxury items, and we’re still spending at least 25% more than last year for food.
Nonetheless, I thank God we have the resources to buy in bulk and in advance because I know a lot of families don’t.
Learn to can, it’s not that hard. Can your own chicken, and vegetables. Make a big pot of chili and can it too. You can also can meat, homemade soup. Save the chicken fat and bones, boil them and make your own broth.
I’m actually up this late waiting for the pressure canner to finish. I caught a sale on chicken 😉 .
I can lots of chicken. It’s one of the easiest things to can.
We are keeping to our budget. A few more bean meals than beef, lately less eggs and more oatmeal for breakfast.
July and August were real low months for sales and we ate a lot from our larder. November has had a lot of decent sales. Aldi has butter for $2 a pound and I bought enough for year! It freezes great.
Thanks for reminding me about Aldi’s, I never shop there but, I’ll start paying attention to their ads. Very sad I missed that butter price. We used to have a Price Rite which is part of Shop Rite/Wakefern but not any more (similar to Aldi, but US owned).
democRats and rinoRats ENJOY your demise, due to your own stupidity. Unfortunately the USS America is sinking. If you don’t CYA then that’s on You. No One, including any politician, is coming to “Save the Day” ….. Superman doesn’t exist.
genearly.substack.com
Biden and the DemScum want to break us and destroy us.
I wonder what will happen when people start dying from hypothermia and hunger this winter?
Seems to me the time for MAGA has passed. It is now MALA–MAKE AMERICA LIVEABLE AGAIN
We’ve noticed how Make America Great Again has morphed into Save America. PDJT knows, even if it doesn’t impact his everyday life and comfort. He knows.
Baking? Hell … no baking for us this Thanksgiving, we are eating hot dogs and store bought buns … you know … the Joe Bidinh “discount” July 4th “Holiday” meal.
hot dogs go really well with sweet-pickle relish and dijon mustard
and minced onion if you can manage it
or sauerkraut
yum
I grab baby-back ribs when they’re on sale. It’s our go-to for Thanksgiving.
I found some good deals on pie crusts and fillings on Amazon, bought a few cases and it’s the smell of pies if/when I’m feeling down. My favorite? Blueberry. It’s like heaven.
Cost per pie is about five bucks and it lasts four days so 1.25 per day. The heat from the oven heats the house and the power is cheap so I don’t count it.
If you want you can bake. There are sales out there.
It’s not a false premise, it is simply math. Figures really don’t lie but, liars use figures also. What you are essentially arguing is that the YoY inflation rate as measured and reported and commented upon and speculated about is not meaningful enough because it only reflects one year of time. I would agree.
One cannot properly analyze the prospects of any firm with only one balance sheet representing a snapshot of time and one income statement representing one year of time. The minimum is five years of each plus cash flow statements and every other statement one can get a hold of plus all the other factors that go into it. People love to analyze numbers and more economic numbers get invented and redefined all the time. No one ever really considers if the numbers are meaningful or not in and of themselves. Companies across industries often have very different capital structures and ratios which are almost meaningless until context is applied by understanding why and what is really important is how they compare against competitors within the industry rather than companies operating in completely different ways doing different things.
The actual effective inflation rate anyone actually incurs is only established by examining the actual basket of goods each of us actually buys rather than some average or compilation which may be of interest to academics or policy makers. We see what it is for the stuff we buy when we buy it again and again and that is what matters to our pocketbooks regardless of what the Bureau of Labor Statistics says it was this year based on their sample and calculation methodology. We see it most in food and fuel for our machines, the staples of surviving and working.
America is ripe for another Ross Perot – remember him?
Yes, his giant sucking sound quip and charts were epic. Got my vote and, even though he lost and never really did much in politics again, turned out to be a solid dude for the rest of his life. None of this chicanery stuff. Don’t regret that vote at all.
What I vaguely remember now but was so impressed at the time was when RP got his men out that had been captured , while our government hemmed and hawed. Pray and help others
Gas Prices had zero effect on Voting – The same amount of Gas that was sold at $1.99 a Gallon sold at $5.00 a gallon. People have not cut back on driving – just get on an Inter-State
I’m impressed they’re so wealthy.
When it was at $5 where I live, I noticed a lot less traffic. I think that really drained peoples savings – and of course, food prices. FJB manipulated the election by getting the price down – now that we’re past that, I fully expect gas to go to a minimum of 5, possibly 8. We’ll see, and soon I think.
The midterms’ winners and losers — and why the ‘giddy’ White House should worry
By Jonathan Turley
https://nypost.com/2022/11/09/midterm-winners-and-losers-and-why-giddy-white-house-should-worry/
Weak as usual. Turley just can’t let go of his biases as demonstrated by his stating that the incoming Congress is filled with less moderates.
I thought he loved the Constitution. Why doesn’t he address that the incoming Congress will be filled with fewer anti-constitutionalists and anti-America adherents if the repubs take one or both houses?
I read this on a Telegram channel. Not sure how accurate it is, but I did check a few of these figures and they were correct. This is an indication of contraction of the economy.
“Staff reductions in a number of Western companies, the share of dismissed from the total number:
Seagate: 8%
Docusign: 9%
Shopify: 10%
Twilio: 11%
GoFundMe: 12%
Chime: 12%
Meta: 13%
Redfin: 13%
Lyft: 13%
Stripes: 14%
Patreon: 17%
Coinbase: 18%
Opendoor: 18%
Flipboard: 21%
Intel: 20%
Snap: 20%
Dapper: 22%
Robinhood: 23%
Twitter: 40-50%”
Most of those employees are good progressives so they voted for it.
Looks like another tech bubble.
According to voters in Michigan killing pre-born babies trumps the increased cost of everything else.
Half of the people are too lazy to cook. Takes time away from video games and idiotic TV shows. people better learn, and learn to grow veggies, and learn how to can , how to bake.
Home heating oil increased 68.5% year over year? B as in B S as in S! I just got my tank filled today at $5.99/gallon. In 17 years, I’ve never seen it that high. In April it was $4.79 25% Last year, $3.29. 82%.
If you can’t dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with BS.
Let’s go Brenda says, “The country is doing just fine!”
I live on 2-1/2 acres………..I’m really starting to make a plan for self-sufficiency. Family welcome…..but they have to help clean the chicken coops and hog pens……….seriously…….all these states that buy into the democrat lunacy are going to self-destruct and they are so insanely stupid they won’t realize it until it’s too late. And when the Hunger Games come to fruition……I’m not going to have any sympathy. Zero. My Godson lives in Chicago…..I pray for him and his safety all the time…..but his choice…he owns the consequences. And I am sad for the looming results.
Obviously, a lot of people think none of this matters. Why else would so many democRATS have won? They must think the dems are going to take from the rich (anyone making more than the average household income) and give to them … so they won’t suffer from the bad economy. Otherwise, they just must be INSANE.
“Why else would so many democRATS have won?”
1) Fraud in the ballot harvesting process as outlined so eloquently by Sundance (and quoted by Bannon).
2) Self interest – when your work relies on government or gov funding, are you really going to vote yourself out of a job?
We’re in a very bad place and things won’t change until they have to change. It’s our job to make sure that the change we end up with is NOT the change that the WEF wants. Got your bucket of sand to throw into those lovely cogs of oppression?
Does anyone believe these government figures?
Taking on the State directly is folly.
The nascent recession makes splendid excuse for spineless Republican politicians to support cutbacks.
The fascist State will not tolerate dissent, so dissent must be disguised.
Not at all. And why is the “solution” to inflation always to crush demand rather than increase supply?
The killer for me this winter will be heating fuel. Like usual I filled up over the summer, but the next ones are really going to hurt.
Driving we know how to cut and groceries are staying stable by switching things around and buying on sale.
Safeway’s prices here in N CA keep spiraling up up up … we are now skipping meals in our household. It’s Ramadan every day 😵💫
The cost of eating at restaurants, even as an occasional treat, has reached the point of “uh, no” for me. And I think restaurants are an important part of the local economy I want to support — and no longer can. I’ve tried for years to buy local and mom and pop to do my part, plus I prefer that…. and my budget now is screaming that I can’t. I’m really being squeezed. My wages have NOT been increased.
I live in the suburbs of DC where we have had minimum wage increases to around $15/hour (so that is rapidly gaining on my wage, which used to be relatively more elevated). This has certainly contributed to driving up prices in service-heavy industries where automation is not as possible. (I’m not commenting on the people factor here — I want everyone to have an income that provides for the lifestyle they want to have).
So a couple years ago the price of a “good” burger/fries in an upscale restaurant was about $11-13. Just last month it is now $17-19. And that is the lowest item on the dinner menu. If I go out only occasionally (i.e. once a month as a treat), I have gone to more upscale restaurants. That has come to an end.
This is kind of like the burrito index, I guess. The upscale burger index. (well, ditto for McD’s)
The cost of a glass of wine or beer has also really shot up — happy hour prices were $5-$6 per drink just a couple years ago. Now they are around $10.
Going out with friends used to be an important part of my social life. It’s OK that I am now hunkering down by myself at home and cooking most of my meals from scratch, but it is a diminished life. Creative people find other ways to socialize, and of course I am counting my blessings and adapting (not whining — just pointing out what’s going on from my perspective).
You can call this “first world problems,” but we used to live in a first world country. We are going backwards due to power plays and politics way above our heads, that we can seemingly do little to influence. Is that OK?
I do understand that the evildoers want us to stop gathering (and having conversations) with one another. Definitely, the cost of this is making it harder to do regularly.
Keep the faith!