A few days ago, we were discussing the disconnect within the economy as it relates to corporate valuations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics report today [DATA HERE] highlights another economic disconnect, this time with labor. According to the BLS survey 528,000 jobs were added to the economy in July, the unemployment rate drops to 3.5%.
The household data [Table A] shows the number of eligible workers unemployed dropped 242,000; however, the number of eligible workers no longer in the workforce increased by 239,000. The total labor force is shrinking as unemployment drops.
Keep in mind the previous BLS survey of job openings (JOLTS report) showed available jobs dropped 605,000 in July. “On the last business day of June, the number and rate of job openings decreased to 10.7 million (-605,000) and 6.6 percent, respectively. The largest decreases in job openings were in retail trade (-343,000), wholesale trade (-82,000), and in state and local government education (-62,000).” [JOLTS survey]
Going back to today’s release, 303,000 part-time jobs were added in July; these are workers working part-time for economic reasons. The Household Data shows that within the leisure and hospitality sector [Table B-1] restaurants and bars added 74,000 jobs.
If we combine both BLS surveys two days apart is: 605,000 job openings cancelled, and 528,000 new jobs gained.
Of the 528,000 new jobs gained, 303,000 were part time jobs with the largest growth in the jobs in restaurants and bars.
Again, blending data from both reports and focusing on retail. The retail sector cancelled 343,000 job openings in July, and the retail sector added 21,600 jobs in July. Within the retail sector (table B-1), jobs at automotive dealers, furniture stores and clothing/apparel stores dropped by a combined 7,200 jobs.
BIG PICTURE: ♦Energy prices are squeezing consumers and paychecks. ♦Energy driven inflation is high. ♦Rising housing costs, food costs, gasoline costs and energy costs have hit the consumer hard. ♦Credit card balances have jumped (highest increase since ’02). ♦Consumer sales on non-essential items have dropped. ♦Factory activity around the world (Asia and Eurozone) is slowing or has stopped. ♦Durable goods inventories have climbed everywhere. ♦Shippers of durable goods are not shipping. ♦Employment in auto sales, furniture and clothing have all declined. All of these datapoints align.
Everything in that “big picture” is fact based on current data, and it all makes sense. However, there is still a disconnect in the big picture.
How does an economy add over 4 million jobs this year, while simultaneously shrinking?
The value of those jobs has to diminish in proportion to the economic contraction. The disconnect only reconciles if the wages which lead to eventual spending. With wage growth at 5.2% and the cost of everything up 9.1% (inflation), the difference between the two is how the economy shrinks even with more jobs added.
Think of all the activity (buying stuff, eating out, ordering food etc) as units. All of the unit activity costs more money, but the earnings of the workers is only keeping pace with half of the increase in price. Therefore, less units are being engaged made, sold and purchased.
The GDP, which measures the value of everything created in the economy (minus imports) dropped 1.6% in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second. The unit economy is contracting.
As I have said before, “an intentionally managed decline of western economic activity should have a direct impact on the private corporations within those economies. If the politicians are collectively going to stop energy development, raise energy prices (inflation), then use monetary policy to shrink the economy down to the level of energy available, we would normally think corporations were going to make less money.”
However, in our current scenario, as long as price increases (energy inflation) can be passed along and wage gains can remain low, the profitability remains strong. Here’s the worst part of this dynamic. The people investing in the profit get richer, the workers creating the profit get poorer.
Our Joe Biden economy, and the economy of the western nations that are following this same climate change agenda, is getting smaller. Within the smaller economy, the rich are getting richer and the workers within the Joe Biden economy are getting poorer.
You can find more info here as well:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/something-snaps-job-market-multiple-jobholders-hit-all-time-high-unexplained-18-million
Incredible stats in that read. Thanks.
No problem
The Government stats today show a seasonal adjustment of 900K. Non-seasonally adjusted number was 385K Jobs LOST.
Last July we lost 41,000 job. This July we loas 9 times more jobs than last July (excluding adjustments).
Its utterly depressing, and now we have the riot police out in the UK getting ready. Wonder when USA will kick off?
I wonder what the seasonal adjustment was at this same time last year.
Not happening around here (southern AZ)…labor market is very tight…
The meat in that:
Guess what: at a time when the Biden admin is now being accused of fabricating energy numbers to push oil prices lower, the jarring divergences and inconsistencies in the jobs report just hit escape velocity.
[much analysis of graphs]
So what’s going on here? The simple answer: Fewer people working, but more people working more than one job, a rotation which picked up in earnest some time in March and which has only been captured by the Household survey.
And since the Establishment survey is far slower to pick up on the nuances in employment composition, while the Household Survey has gone nowhere since March, the BLS data engineers have been busy goalseeking the Establishment Survey (perhaps with the occasional nudge from the White House especially now that the economy is in a technical recession) to make it appear as if the economy is growing strongly, when in reality all they are doing is applying the same erroneous seasonal adjustment factor that gave such a wrong perspective of the labor market in the aftermath of the covid pandemic (until it was all adjusted away a year ago). In other words, while the labor market is already cracking, it will take the BLS several months of veering away from reality before the government bureaucrats accept and admit what is truly taking place.
We expect that “realization” to take place just after the midterms, because the last thing the Biden administration can afford is admit the labor market is crashing in addition to the continued surge in inflation.
Just checked, and estimates for 2023 Social Security COLA are 9.8-11.3,..so tracking with my estimate of around 10 percent,…it will be based on the year over year cost of living increase, focusing on THE THIRD QUARTER, which is another reason the Biden admin has tried to SLIGHTLY reduce inflation in June.
The increase is going to mean Social Security costs are going to go WAY up, going forward. And, its going to cost a lot more to borrow the $ to meet them.
Their estimate of insolvency for SS, goes from 2035 to 2034, so for recipients now, no need to panic, but its not good.
The thing that upsets me the most is the Brandon Administration’s policies, even with an SSA COLA, is not going to be enough to keep Seniors from either freezing, dying of heat stroke, or starving. Even a 10% increase doesn’t cover the gas, electricity, and food increases, most of which are 100% increases.
The clerks at the local stores can’t keep up with the price increases as they go up daily. Imagine being a Senior and carefully selecting groceries and supplies, only to get up to the checkout counter and find you don’t have enough money. Anyone who is not on that tight of a budget, keep an eye out for your Seniors. This is brutal on them. And it’s criminal of the Brandon Administration.
I joke that the prices change between the time I enter, say, the grocery store and the time I get to checkout. Pretty soon, I suspect that will be the case.
I shopped today and shoppers all have the same concerned looks on their faces. I spoke with a few who proclaimed that they are not buying anything but necessities. Most are not buying meat. There was no water on the shelves (gallon jugs) and hasn’t been any for months.
I’m alone and have really cut back but continue to spend more on the little I purchase. I rarely eat lunch and it’s casseroles and stew for dinner.
Again I ask the question, what are our next steps to stop this progression?
Cannibalism?
The NYT already had an article advocating that. 😒
Signs soon to be seen in suburbia: Trespassers Will Be Eaten.
Toss ’em in the hog pen for free entertainment now and bacon down the road.
Maybe. The NY Times promoted that in a “feature article” two weeks ago.
We are the same, Spryte. I am truly so sorry. We’ve eliminated meat as well in the main. I suppose we could splurge once in a while and buy a pot roast which we could eat for a few days (I make a mean pot roast).
But we daren’t after our last electric bill. August’s will be brutal. So we make economies now in anticipation.
I have no idea what the next steps are. None. But I do believe when the situation becomes worse, the thin threads holding us together (barely)snap, what comes will be very unpleasant.
Blessings to you, Spryte.
Betsy and Spryte – same here. I can’t remember the last time I bought meat. I live on whatever is on sale at the store – try not to drive too much and have cancelled any summer vacation. What a load of crap….Luckily, I have really good food storage so I may be tapping into that soon…
Saw the writing on the wall back at the beginning of Covid and haven’t purchased fresh meat in over two years. I figure there’s a whole ocean of fish a short walk from the house so have been training the body to seafood as a protein source.
I am a senior on a fixed income so can identify with others so burdened during these difficult times. Having had Depression era survivors for parents helps; it puts things in perspective. I thank God daily for my health and the little bounty and freedom which remains.
Since I ran my own shop for over 30 years no employer in their right mind would hire me anyway. Too militant, too independent, lousy slave. I haven’t been part of their ‘numbers’ for decades. I imagine there are millions of others out there like that too.
Needs…now or in the future, as far as we are able to see…must take priority over wants, which include spontaneous treats in our household until we are no longer on shifting sands. Which will probably be a lot longer than most are figuring on.
We don’t drive much either, but we are retired and have no commitments jobs wise as so many do. And we are fortunate to have close access to our bank, grocery, pharmacy, etc. So a day by day life, hoping so much for the best for all, but expecting worse to come….and planning accordingly as best as we are able.
Kill all the lawyers first then all the commies. Than ask for more guns n money 🙂
A good first step is to stop supporting and supplicating to the corrupt legal system. Think of other solutions besides litigation and ignore the legal system entirely. That’s called civil disobedience.
We can get to the killing part later. First, economic warfare and sand in the machinery.
You forgot the “journalists” spouting the Party Line…
Just got back from the grocery store. $8.99 for a watermelon.
And $7.39 for a big box of cheerios. Ridiculous
Nothing will change until voters change. As long as people believe that government can give them stuff and take care of them at no cost to them, this will continue. Argentina is suffering from massive inflation and debt problems, and at least one government official wants to cut the budget. The result is protests, which will probably be followed by riots. Apparently a large percentage of the population doesn’t work at all, and expects government to take care of them. Governments respond by using inflation and borrowing money, but eventually the chickens come home to roost.
Hi Betsy.
You aren’t off on that, in fact it does happen. But there are added other losses/costs that don’t show up in any of the stats. For instance the added office time involved in construction/service.
For decades contractors estimated jobs based on a general sense of what similar jobs cost recently. That’s gone. Since mr. poopypants was installed every job has to be carefully priced and quoted. A project that is quoted today will be out of date 2 or 3 days from now. Materials costs are jumping up as much as 50% overnight, sometimes much more than that. Every minute item in a project now has to be suspect in the quote and has to be rechecked. And the checking is not only for price, we also have to confirm that they exist, and will be available at price we are being told. Failure to carefully source and price every single item can result in enormous surprises in the price of the project as a formerly minor part has suddenly become a major expense item, or worse, the part is simply not available. Imagine a car repair shop that rebuilds a motor then can’t get the car out the door and the bill paid because there are no spark plug wires or they can’t get the oil filter.
What this causes is enormous lost productivity as so much time is spent on quoting and locating materials. An 8 hour job ends up taking 3 or 4 hours of office time to line up. I am not exaggerating that ratio.
Oh I can well believe it, SK. My own husband had to source materials for steel buildings he has constructed long ago in Britain when prices were unmoving. We’ve had endless conversations about this. Would he be able to do it today? Oh H*** no!
Nothing is stable. No one can plan. This situation is as destructive to an economy as the prices themselves when no one knows where they’ll be.
I’m glad to see you. It’s been a long while, and I do hope you and your family are well and surviving as best you can. All blessings to you, SK. Bet
I recall bids in the volatile times (Carter) and the conditions included. The wholesale house would get a quote from the distributor who got it from the factory and the quote would be handed down from one desk to the next the morning of the bid openings, to have the most recent price. Then the bid would have a built in kill date or price escalator since the supplier wouldn’t guarantee the price more than a few days.
This is in many ways worse, because it’s stealing so much additional time confirming that the part will even be available.
I follow your comments as I lurk in the shadows. Always good to see your comments and exchanges with your pals around the world here.
I agree.
Thanks, SK.
And funny you should say that about pals around the world, because I was thinking about this recently…how many friends we all have… friends from parts that we’ll never visit. I treasure them all, even I don’t know their faces…don’t need to know them. We know them by their hearts and that is a gift.
And yes, I agree!! Time is a currency we can never make up if lost. Unlike money. I know which is more valuable. So the loss of time is more egregious and unforgivable when deliberate policies, incompetence, or ineptitude cause us to lose it. Godspeed, SK. It was a pleasure to reconnect with you.
I was an estimator in construction for almost 50 years. I know how it is about the uncertainty of the times. The most notorious of just in time sub bids were from electrical contractors. Like just minutes before the opening bids. I just thought it was crooked as hell back then. But now I. get it, it’s. survival of the cheatest.
Well put, randy. Embedded corruption. Often as well who you know…or don’t. Those connections which allow, for example, no bid contracts so beloved by blue state governors. There is no way to fight that sort of evil and unethical practice. My sincerest sympathies that you have had to do so. I hope that you’ve been very successful in securing bids other than those hopefully few times when you are submarined even before you submit one.
Glad I shut the shop in early 2020 and kept the three plus decades of inventory instead of dumping it or giving it away.
I’ve got tens of thousands of parts and raw materials for industrial stuff squirreled away in the forest.
However, to give the materials price/availability matrix a test, I picked something common, used everyday in construction, from the same vendor I purchased from when I did a roofing job on the office in 2018. Nothing fancy, composition shingles. In stock and within a dollar per bundle of what I paid in 2018.
A more volatile product, 7/16″ OSB for the decking, cost me about 13 bucks a sheet in 2018 and is now 19.15 per sheet. That’s a pretty big increase but not bank busting.
I’ll just say this, as a long-timer in industry. People lie, cheat and steal for money. Humans are greedy sons a bitches. Narcissists too. Trust but verify.
OSB and plywood were running about 80 dollars around here for much of the last year. They’ve come back down now. Plywood and OSB were essentially the same price, and 1/2″ was essentially the same price as 3/4″. There is no explanation other than manipulation and gouging.
Within a month or two of the fraudulent’s installation the price of insulated wire (NM, THHN, etc.) suddenly went up almost exactly 400%, in the space of a few weeks. Some of that increase was literally overnight, or mid-day, as the price would change 20-80% in an hour. The price of bare copper wire didn’t change in that same time.
The price of the myriad odd small parts, the stuff that used to be included in the cost calculations as misc. with a catch-all amount has become so unpredictable, and availability so problematic, that nothing can be taken for granted now. A part that used to be too minor to individually track suddenly becomes critical to the job and impossible to obtain, plus the price is now a significant multiple of what it formerly was.
Much of last year plumbers were hoarding elbows because they didn’t know when or where they would get more. Tomorrow I’ll end up driving halfway across town to buy up one of the last remaining in stock of a part that is so common that until the plandemic no shop ever worried about getting one. The markup on that part isn’t enough to cover the gas to go get it, but without the part the job can’t be completed.
None of that time can be built into the project quote.
Try buying an airline ticket. Before you can finalize the flight, the price has gone up. And they make light of it.
It would take a 20 man team to get me on an airplane again. Ticket prices would be only one reason why I won’t.
Flying used to be a pleasure of sorts. No longer.
Bread in my area is 3 x what it was before…. so 200% increase in price, seems to be the going rate under Commie in Chief Joe Stalin.
I’ve noticed eggs here. One week a hideous $3.12/dozen. Two weeks later $3.59. Then at this point I’m bound to say I guess I should be thrilled we still have them at the store where we shop.
It happened in the weimar Republic (Germany between the wars). On payday, people were paid in the morning and promptly left work to go grocery shopping, etc: if they waited until the end of the work day, their paycheck would literally buy them 10% less than it would have 8 hours earlier.
Can’t happen here? Famous last words….
Oh I think it can…and will unless something monumental happens.
I still can hardly believe when we were feeling food and energy secure two years ago, that this almost Weimar Republic is where we are now. Sometimes I find it unfathomable.
The Guatamalan president tweeted out a few months ago the only reason for our sudden precipitous collapse was clearly because we were being destroyed from within.
And for that bold, honest, and very public statement he was very nearly assassinated. That’s where truth telling gets you…targeted by the CIA (I firmly believe).
In my store we are installing electronic tags which make that possible. They are liquid crystal tags which update through store wireless broadcasts. We are becoming capable of changing prices by the hour!
Well…so my flippant joke is soon to become reality. I’m not surprised.
We’ve had two people who retired last year come back to work as they cannot make it on the fixed income that supported them a year earlier. They HAD to come back into the workforce, luckily they got their old jobs back.
I need to but after retired for 15 yrs I’m out of muscle and my trade has passed me by.
I’d like to put my tools back on my truck and start a little handyman business but OMG the paperwork and BS are more than I want to tackle.
Every time at the grocery store, I see this same scene play out with increasing frequency.
Almost always a lone senior, standing in fronvof a case or shelf, looking for many minutes.
I think they are not looking to try to figure out which is the “best deal”, they are wrestling not with “is THIS can of whatever a better deal than THIS one”,…they are wrestling with realising they simply don’t have the $ for ANY of the cans of whatever, and deciding what other thing on their already paired down to essentials list, they will have to do without, in order to afford the can of whatever.
And yes, its heart breaking to witness,…
Just think about all the EBT welfare folks, they don’t even think twice, or look at the price Lol.
Since I pay for my own food, I am like the elders you speak of…. especially when prices are up 200% on some items. I’m actually recalibrating my food items for the second time now, first time under the fake covid shortages, now due to Joe Stalin Inflated mess, I am changing it up again. (Did add to the garden though, that’s the real blessing, everyone needs to grow a garden if they can.)
Im cleaning out an apartment after an eviction..lady was on emergency rental assistance for 13 months after getting fired from her job in spring of 2021..the govt paid her 11,000 rent for 13 months..I lost out on 2 months when the money dried up..The Sheriff removed them from the property..from the paperwork I saw both her and her BF were getting public assistance..I paid all utilities..The kitchen was jammed packed with food,lots of fresh fruit, a huge box of sweet potatoes, canned goods..I found the cable modem still on and found the bill..9.90 a month..the place was filthy with all the cleaning supplies I left in the apartment Dec of 2018 untouched..I have to store all there stuff for 30 days..it’s all junk..I guess this is the new normal..
What I notice is it seems way, way well over 80% are still way, way too fat. I don’t see many skinny people, but just fat people. My guess, the American people could cut back on 50% of the crap they buy and call “food” and be better off financially as well as physically.
When I see pictures of people who look like pictures of the people in the 1930’s then I guess, I may become a little concerned about it.
The problem is the stuff that makes them fat cost less than the stuff that is healthy. The food industry and the pharmaceutical companies work hand in hand. Food makes them fat and the pharmaceutical companies sells them the drugs to treat cancer, diabetes, and heart disease.
Carbs are filling and cheaper.
Yes. Hard to eat Keto when a 3 lb bag of almond flour is $21 and a 3 lb bag of white flour is $4. If you cook for yourself. Then there’s the meat. A pound of bacon, a pound of hamburger and a couple pounds of stew meat don’t go far unless you put pasta or potatoes with them.
Freezing and dying seniors is a feature not a bug, reducing as it does the number of people collecting SS payments. The COVID jab aftermath might help the left, too, except that it might hit working age people harder, yielding less funds propping up the dying welfare state.
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/08/04/covid-vaccines-are-killing-one-in-every-800-over-60s-and-should-be-withdrawn-immediately-says-leading-vaccine-scientist/
FTA “Covid vaccine boosters in older people are killing one person for every 800 doses administered and should be withdrawn from use immediately, a leading vaccine scientist has said. Dr. Theo Schetters, a vaccinologist based in the Netherlands who has played a leading role in the development of a number of vaccines, has analysed the official data from the Dutch Government and found a very close correlation between when fourth vaccine doses were administered in the country and the number of excess deaths, as shown in the chart below.”
This is unconscionable! No way these poisons wouldn’t have been pulled just 5yrs ago. We have mass murderers at the helm of this sinking ship.
I expect that families will have to depend on each other more, which is what families have always done in tough times. It will be bad for those who do not have anyone close to them to help them out.
That won’t bother them, Dutchman …they’ll claw it all back with Medicare premium increases way higher than whatever COLA ends up being. It was always thus.
They even play the same game with rate changes within Medicare.
Simple Example: The Medicare Silver Script drug plan dropped their premium last year but if one multiplies the value of the drop in the monthly premium x 12, that number equals the increase in the Silver Script Deductible.
Yes…and we’ve already had one midyear increase. Hoping there isn’t another before October.
My Part D premium increased only slightly but my maintenance drug tier’s copay rose so much that I’m better off – for now – using a discount drug service. Trump was trying to fix the insane drug sales world but that’s down the toilet now. I can’t imagine what will happen if China decides to embargo drugs.
Honestly, people would be far better off if many drugs were less available.
I wonder at what point seniors in reletively good health will decide to “opt out” of medicare part B, in order to survive (buy food).
Yes, after many years at $140/mo. they raised it to $170.
Not advocating one way or the other,…but;
If you have no health insurance (other than part A, which only kicks in if you are hospitalised, so for something major), and you have no private insurance, and your only income is Social Security level i.e. around the “poverty level” of $12,000/ ind, $25,000 couples,…
In all likelihood there are clinics in your area that will treat you, with regular Drs appts, etc and charge you based on “ability to pay” typically $30-$50/ visit.
Lab tests, regardless of how many tests ordered, $30/ draw.
Many drug companies will supply meds for free, again if you qualify, and mail them right to your door.
So, what EXACTLY are you getting, for that $170/ mo medicare premium, except a lot of headaches dealing with co-pays and deductibles?
I know an elderly couple, on SS, annual income around $25,000 /year, that spends $150-$250 / year, TOTAL for their medical costs.
This includes 2-4 office visits a year, with lab tests before, and several Rxs they pay nothing for.
So, for about what a Medicare person or couple would pay, for ONE MONTH, they getxa year of medical care.
Its NOT for everyone, it takes seeing through the ILLUSION of ‘security’ of health insurance, but its presented here as an option for consideration.
Also, IF you “opt out” of part B and the Rx drug plan, and later decide to go back, their IS a penalty that permanently increases future medicare B premiums, ….on the other hand, the couple I am referring to have no intention of EVER “going back” and seem quite content with their medical care choices.
In my area, if you tell your medical provider that you are private pay, they charge you much less than what they charge insurance or medicare.
For seniors on Medicare with monthly income of $1,549 or less (single, $2,080 or less married) there is a program called Medicare Savings Program that will pay for the Medicare Part B premium (currently $170 a month) and there is another program called Extra Help if the senior has a monthly income of $1,719 or less (if married 2,309 or less) which covers the cost of prescription drugs plan premiums, deductibles, co-payments and coinsurance. That one, the Extra Help, is reimbursed to the State by the federal government. There are other requirements such as assets (not including one vehicle, home, and life insurance under a certain amount).
Taking advantage of those extra helps can make a difference for seniors trying to make that decision between medicine, food, or heat. There are companies that sell the medicare advantage programs whose agents can help the seniors sign up for those programs and at the least help to discover if the senior is eligible.
Many seniors own their homes outright, so don’t qualify because of assets. It is worth investigating tho.
Throw sand in the gears…
The homes, owned outright or not, are not counted in the assets regarding qualification.
Forgot to add, if you can’t get meds from the drug company for free, you can order them from India.
Meds that cost $10 and up/ pill here, out of pocket cost $1-$2 pill there.
I know of one medication that costs $3,000/ mo. here and $2800 for 400 pills, ordering from India.
THATS the kind of mark up we are talking about!
Ordering from International pharmacies can be tricky, as there ARE i-net frauds out there.
I have been ordering meds from international pharmacy for many years, and never gotten ‘burned’.
Global pharmacy
Jeff
1-916-269-8485
While I agree with you, it’s an element of Russian Roulette. If all goes well you save a ton of money. If not, you go bankrupt.
These days almost 2 out of 3 people are diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives. You need part b, otherwise typical cancer treatment for a treatable will cost you around $150,000 for chemo and another $50-$100,000 for surgery. If you add radiation, it’s another $100k.
I had cancer 3 years ago. I refused radiation but did do 5 months of chemo and had 2 surgeries and then physical therapy for 6 months. I was a self pay patient with a medical sharing group. Total cost of my treatment 3 years ago was $196,000. Tough to pay out of pocket.
If you’re in your late 70s or above then maybe no part b would be a good bet. If you’ve just turned 65, it’s a much tougher choice.
I was 61 when I was diagnosed, and my parents are in their 90s. I’m looking at possibly another 25-30 years to live and needed my savings to stay intact.
I’m sure many more may choose this route as times get worse.
On a related side note… before retirees drawing social security plan on spending that 9.3-11.3% bonanza (//s), better wait to see how much the Medicare Premiums raise as last year’s Medicare Premium Increases ate the SSA kishka COLA.
For those who are not yet on Social Security and/or Medicare … US Government Medicare Premiums are subtracted from the Social Security Checks before they are written.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s only IF one’s intention is in wanting Medi-Con, no?
You do not have much choice. You will be fined by the Us Government via assignment to a Medicare Drug Plan and you will essentially be forced to sign up for at least basic Medicare.
If you have not done so, highly recommend creating an account on Medicare.gov and SSA.gov to see what is happening as well as your your obligations. It is also important to have an account if you are deriving healthcare from an employer or ex-employer as well as trying to work past age 65.
The health providers and health insurance carriers force the issue if you want any kind of care, let alone try to do some sort of maintenance.
From a Social Security point of view, that online account is important to determine how much your Social Security is impacted by WEP (Wind fall Elimination Provision) and GPO (Government Pension Offset) if you have a State or Municipal Pension Plan.
In Oregon, the QMB-BAS plan pays the Medicare premiums, deductibles and co-pays. Current net limit (there are deductions to gross) is 1133/mo single- 1452/mo couple. I presume the ‘gross’ is the SS benefit before the Medicare premiums are deducted to give the net payment each month.
It appears that seniors on Oregon Care (the state MedicAid program) who have accounts with the state online have a streamlined application process.
It’s a good time to be healthy and I thank God daily for historical good health. The medical industrial/pharma complex would go broke if the majority of people were like me.
Good tips all around from Treepers at this time of strife for many seniors. We’re tough though; we’ll make it.
I’ll bet you a couple Benjamins that SSA recipients will not see that 9.8 to 11.3 increase next year in our payments. Why? Because Medicare premiums will be jacked up a couple points higher than any SSA increase offered.
Do the math. A 10% increase on $170 is $17. A 10% increase on $2500 is $250. Still a net win, if you call 10% inflation a win…
This just adds to my concern for my kids.
How convenient for the SSA that they only have to figure COLA once a year. As my Dad used to say, a dollar late and a day short.
alot to unpack there and alot of good mile markers…
It’s great that we have both SD and ZH to break reports like this down to their bare truths.
Thank you. ZeroHedge is to accurate economic news, what CTH is to accurate political/social news. We need to read both, daily.
ZH is mostly fear porn. Know what you’re reading.
Read both, and others, every day multiple times just to keep up with events that are always fluid.
FJB and whoever the actual *president* is.
Right.
As our polarized society moves closer to the brink of Great Depression 2.0, which the bankers within the Fed once again purposefully did while the corporations like Blackr0ck ready themselves to pillage the country, remember that the banking houses are global and all of them untouchable as they have planned. Don’t be surprised to see a repeat of 1930s cardboard houses of homeless as banks ramp up foreclosures and an uncontrollable public.
We may be calling the future depression “the Greater Depression.”
True. and Hoover called out the Army to get the great ‘unwashed’ Bonus Army protests out of DC.
Yep, and which three later war heroes ran them out and burned their camp? One became President. Never forget the Bonus Army. Never forget Ashli Babbitt.
In the past, we didn’t have an “information age” but today we do. In the past, the players were faceless and nameless. Today, that’s impossible — we know a LOT of them.
They are going to need powerful paramilitary guardians who won’t turn on them.
And are willing to put themselves and their families into the maw of how things go sideways once they go into action. No prisoners, no rules. Everything is on the table. Their biological attack was the opening shot. We took a lot of casualties. That’s OK. Payback is a dish best served cold.
Don’t worry Be Happy . Worries give one wrinkles!! Positive thinking only! President Trump will rectify the situation with our help!
I am sure they THINK they are untouchable, like all those living in “gated communities”, but they may realise too late, that the security they thought they had, is justcan illusion.
The banks & the FED are not our friend. It would be prudent to prepare for hard times as did Joseph after his dream interpretation. Store food, water, precious metals, brass, & some fiat. The crises will come like a thief in the night. Our money will be converted to a Central Bank Digital Currency. It will caused by something big such as war or large financial institutions going under. We’ll all go along with it out of fear. FDR changed the rules in 1934 grabbing the citizens gold and silver wiping out 69% of American savings with the signature of his pen. EO 6102 for gold and EO 6814 for silver. Look it up. It WILL happen again but will Most likely be a conversion to CBDC this next time.
I’ve got a grand total of under 20 bucks in banks and financial institutions. Anyone who wants a piece of me will have to go after hard assets and my family is dead and I’m happy to make an appointment with God for any and all comers and go smiling with them into the great nether.
This time, unfortunately, there’s going to be a lot of death involved since we know what’s up and who’s behind it and that it isn’t ‘just the way life works out’.
I hope the tyrants soldiers no matter what uniform they wear understand that. No prisoners, no rules. Bring lots of body bags.
The kitchen table economists will not find extra cash to eat out. What then? It won’t matter what transport costs.
I am wondering about the farm to fork issues for the kitchen table economists who also place plates of food on the kitchen table…
Yesterday, somewhere I posted a Bloomberg article that said this recession will last long than other recessions, partly due to the lack of preparation and calling it what it is…a recession. They said the typical recession lasts about ll months and they thought this would last longer.
One ominous fact they mentioned…job layoffs, and financial pain for many.
Did the farmers lock in their seeds and fertilizer costs prior to the heavy inflation? Can they/did they do that for diesel for their tractors?
And the “unit economy is shrinking” and so is the dang ‘unit’.
And all those container ships (sitting in harbors) from china packed with “durable goods” produced how long ago? And when in market, will be sold for how much more??? Obsolete and deteriorating products…am wondering about the expose of a say, vacuum…to salty ocean air…or a ‘fridge or use your imagination. I wonder how good the packaging is or the container, to prevent salty ocean air from penetration the cargo.
If we can get Trump back in, American Manufacturing should rectify that issue, ASAP! I work too hard for my Benjamin’s to play chinese checkers!
Yup, prepare accordingly.
I was working high end dining and catering in Orlando in ’07. I wasn’t working any kind of dining or catering halfway through ’07.
Other than Unicorn farts, there is NOTHING to stop it, slow it down etc.
Given that, any predictions of its death are premature.
WHY 11 months, why “a little longer”,..truth is with nothing to stop it, and its spiraling nature, the reasonable prediction would be “no endvin sight”, which is, I believe Sundances prediction.
It will last longer because it’s intentional.
Yes Aggiegirl, Thanks for the reminder of
“… all those container ships (sitting in harbors) from china packed with
1) “durable goods” produced how long ago? And when in market, will be sold for how much more???
2)Obsolete and deteriorating products…am wondering about the expose of a say, vacuum…to salty ocean air
3)…or a ‘fridge or use your imagination.
I wonder how good the packaging is or the container, to prevent salty ocean air from penetration the cargo.”
The penetration of salty Ocean air from the cargo packaging. Especially, with the condensation effects from temperature differentials.
Making an assumption that there are different packaging procedures for oceanic containers traveling for six weeks, 12 weeks, 6 months, and longer.
These containers maybe 12 weeks.🤔🤔
Love it at the TREE HOUSE, the Treepers supplement, Professor Sundance’s writings. Giving another aspect of what is going on.
“Everything in that “big picture” is fact based on current data, and it all makes sense. However, there is still a disconnect in the big picture.
How does an economy add over 4 million jobs this year, while simultaneously shrinking?”
It adds jobs by mathemagic. Given the government’s demonstrated incompetence and dishonesty, why would anyone believe government economic statistics are accurate? When things don’t “add up”, it is highly probably the inputs were “made up”, adjusted, misperceived, fudged, stochastically improved, found under a bus seat, not entirely candid…
How could the Economy be shrinking with job growth ? Un-productive job creation = Inflation.
And that’s what we’re witnessing (along with 21st century creative bookkeeping).
I LIKE that, “Mathemagics; reimagining the inscrutable World of #’s” (added to it, obviously).
Their goal is to destroy, or deconstructvthe fiat currency system, in order to replace it with digital currency.
I think, being half-assed, they WILL HALF succeed.
They WILL destroy fiat currency, at least in the WEF (YELLOW) Countries.
However, they will NOT succeed in replacing it with digital currency.
Firstly because the Brics+ alliance will actively fight this, and the means to do so is readily available to them.
A currency backed by something with intrinsic value, whether its prescious metals, or a basket of commodities, including oil (?).
Quadafi was working on such a project, and may have well been why he was targeted for removal.
Fiat currencies, not backed by anything are worthless, regardless of the form, so whether paper or digits on a computer, they are equally worthless and subject to manipulation.
The advantage to THEM of digital currencies is they increase their control over the masses, and increase their ability to manipulate.
They are absolutely committed to digital currencies and I think thats because without the control digital currencies provide them, they can NOT force their sick fantasies on us.
“How do you disarm the American populace?”
“With digital currency.”
How do you force people to “own nothing and be happy”?
“With digital currency”.
DC is an ESSENTIAL element in their fantasy, so they will NOT give up on their quest.
And, essential to implementing DC, is destroying the current fiat currency.
In most of the World, outside the U.S. people regularly transact in U.S. Dollars.
In the not too distance future, we in the U.S. may find ourselves transacting with “BRICS BUCKS” even if they are outlawed.
Its either that, or $1’s, $5’s, $10’s and $20’s are replaced with boxes of .22’s, .38’s etc. and nickels, dimes, quarters are replaced with 1-2 rnds.
Ammo and home made liquor will be the only currencies.
Those served fairly well in Appalachia during the 1920s and 1930s.
Those served Appalachia fairly well from the first settlers to present day!
Home made liquor is easy, you can make it out of ANYTHING.
A bottle of ‘store bought’ liquor will be quite valuable, however.
Cans of pipe/cigarette tobacco, because unlike hootch, are almost impossible to produce yourself, will be valuable.
Similarly, CHOCOLATE is impractical for DIY. Just findca way for long term storage.
Soldiers carried nylons and chocolate forca REASON, LOL.
Digital “currency” is where we need to focus our attention…use cash, use a local bank to slow them down. As you say, the U.S. Dollar transacted internationally is losing ground. But at least we will remain sovereign individuals if the DC is stopped.
Definitely the projectile units will be valuable. I think in terms of bartering what I can grow and any skills I’ve developed. I think the bartering economy will thrive. We should definitely improve our bartering “library” and skills now before we have to.
Before digital currency, we will see our assets torpedoed by MMT.
“DC is an ESSENTIAL element in their fantasy, so they will NOT give up on their quest.”
And most people in D.C. seem to have no clue how serious the consequences of a move to DC would be.
Math-A-Magicians !
Here is a question that has bothered me for a few months. If/When the BRICS nations make the transition away from the dollar to their own currency, don’t they also take a sizable loss with any debt they hold in dollars? It is very clear the WEF demons are all about global control and destroying the US. How can their evil intents not impact BRICS also?
Any country holding US debt will see the value of that debt decline if the dollar declines.
The US also gets hit by a declining dollar. Especially and in particular, the ability to finance future debt using foreign bond purchases.
It is a tradeoff between taking a loss on existing debt vs the threat of staying under the constant attacks from the WEF including color revolutions, sanctions, and attempts at old fashioned corruption. In the long run, the WEF is the greater threat.
The BRICS will “decouple” from the WEF dominated west. The rest of the world will choose between real commodities and trade based on gold or real “stuff” including food and fertilizer or continue letting the west try to force them along the great human culling project.
In terms of simply wanting to be left alone to make their own decisions and practice their own cultures, I would guess most countries will opt for the BRICS.
The BRICS is advertising that once you join them your dollar debt is no longer. Those countries are now worth the raw materials, labor and value that they bring to the BRICS table.
It’s like a reverse freezing of your assets by the SWIFT banking system. Hey my country just ain’t gonna pay back what’s owed. Go ahead and freeze my debt and take it to the UN, we be joinin a new monetary system over here. Go ahead and sanction us, we got new tradin partners who are honest. ROTFL
Go to WarNews24|7 , Global developments New financial system and currency announced, date 6/27 2022. Read the article. It’s in Greek so use google translate.
Lavrov said Russia don’t care what the west thinks and now thanks to pelosie China doesn’t either. Can’t believe FJB and the State Dept, and the Pentagon WALKED RIGHT INTO THE TRAP.
Many on Main Street will never know the truth. They’ll continue to believe what they are told and disbelieve all that they see and experience. The regime prints money and that creates inflation which shrinks the value of the dollar.The regime mandates energy policy that has the same effect: We’re paying more for everything because of their policies. But, to cover their collective asses, the regime and the media turn the truth upside down and call business’ that need to raise prices on whatever they’re selling because it’s costing them more to make it or acquire it…Price Gougers.
Lies, dammed lies and statistics.
What’s really going on?
The messy process of “owning nothing” but missing the “liking it” part.
Which by the way only applies to peons outside the credentialed elite. No matter what, they will still own their mansions and yachts and private planes.
If we are not happy, then beatings will continue until morale improves.
Solon said
Call no man happy until he is dead.
WEF not only wants our stuff. They want to be SURE that we are happy.
They’ve yet to be made aware of how fragile their lifestyles really are. PDJT doesn’t have the market cornered on droning enemies. Branch 4 doesn’t have the market cornered on ‘accidents’. We designed and built that stuff, both the weapons and the infrastructure. Those clowns have no idea what we can do if we put our mind to it. God willing it won’t go that far. If it does, everyone loses.
The Democrats say, don’t believe your lying eyes, when in fact you’ll never make sense of lying numbers from proven liars?
There are more sheep in the country than we thought.
Retired Magistrate here: There is nothing new under the sun. During the Depression there was a song that became very popular with the “average joe/jane” becase it reflected reality: “Ain’t We Got Fun”. Some of the song went as follows: “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, in the meantime, in between time ain’t we got fun.”
While the average middle class American lost everything, or almost everything, during the Depression based on speculation during the Roaring Twenties, many people made a fortune off others misery. Yes, some of the wealthy on paper lost everything also due to stock market speculation; however, it was the little guy who really suffered.
The manipulation may be different this time but the outcome will be the same: “the rich get richer and the poor/middle class get poorer.”
My Papa ws a Kansas farmer and lived through the Depression. He told me about a man in the Ozarks who started an auto salvage yard on his rocky backwoods land. Before the ’29 Crash, the guy was just eking out a living. By the end of the Depression and the subsequent rationing of WW2, he was a millionaire.
I know of a guy in western Kansas who did the same thing, as of 10 years ago they still had cars that the old man bought during the 30’s and 40’s, which were still netting very good returns for his kids. I think the 3rd generation came in and crushed everything recently though. The guy was in the middle of nowhere and down in between the hills. You could only see his yard from a plane, or by chance of going down his gravel road. Which is how I found out about him.
Heard a similar story, with more details.
Two brothers, big salvage yard operation, and so generating a decent amount of $, which they kept in the bank.
When the depression hit, people began to pull their savings, in “Bank runs” and the banks didn’t have their $ in cash, cause it was all investedvin mortages, many of which were defaulted on.
This is why Roosevelt ordered the banks “closed”, but they were actually not.
The banks called these brothers, and said (basically) “We do not have your “X” amount of $, kin cash. However, we have several fine mansions we have recently foreclosed on, would you take them, instead?
THATS, I think how some profited during the Depression, as they got those mansions at “rock bottom” valuations, and after the economy recovered, the values returned to previous levels.
Knew a banker in Pennsylvania that used his position to amass great wealth during the depression. He did do good things for people with his money, though.
Yes, that did happen. During the Great Depression a wealthy man in Hutchinson,Kansas, constructed a new six-story hotel downtown. In that time when most commerce was paralyzed, he took a gamble with his money. He made an act of faith that the future would be better, and he gave life-saving employment to many men. Decades later, he was still much honored by the people of the town
still hearkens back to the “Appeal to Authority” fallacy every time you use that open……you undercut your own posts doing so….in fact I skip your posts when I see it as you as much as admit you have no argument without trying to use fallacy as a basis
Yes, I completely agree. It’s very off-putting to me when I see that self-aggrandizing title in her posts. It’s vanity.
Not quite true. While the middle class certainly did not get wealthier, many did in fact keep what they owned as long as it wasn’t leveraged and they had a halfway decent job.
My grandfather was a country lawyer, he did ok and even bought a 3 bedroom vacation house on the beach… for $2300 lol. Of course that was in 1929 and it had an outhouse instead of a bathroom, but there it was, on the beach.
My great uncle was a milliner in downtown Baltimore, he did fine too. My great aunts were department store models in Baltimore as young women, which was good pay for women at the time.
None were well off but they all owned houses in nice neighborhoods and owed no one any money.
The thing is, you need skills that someone must pay for at some time to live. Lawyer, doctor, plumber, electrician, farmer. You may not get rich in a depression but you won’t be homeless and starve either.
Only the connected very rich got richer. There were many paper millionaires who lost their shirts, and everything else.
None of those jobs were at the Oregon DMV.
I took the day off from work to take my dog to the vet for her rabies vaccination and to take care of some business at the DMV.
The vet visit went quick.
I went to our local small town DMV, a sign at the door said it was closed due to staffing issues.
I went to the next closest DMV, 30 miles closer to Portland Oregon and it was packed, really really packed. At least 40 people in line just to check in and another 60 people sitting inside and quite a bit more milling outside waiting and even more sitting in their cars. The parking lot was full and cars were parked street side for a long ways. I left and came home to make an appointment. There are no DMVs within a 150 miles that have an available appointment within the next 45 days, with the closest ones not having any available appointments at all.
If it was a private business, there would be tents setup to process as many, as quickly as possible in order to make the cash flow like a river. Not the DMV, I despise the incompetent leftist Oregon pig ass freaking dog wad government.
I will have to take another day off from work, get there early, like going to a Trump rally and I hope to be close enough to the front of the line that I can get out of there before closing. At my age, I may have to wear a diaper for the first time since I was a baby, I don’t think I can hold it for 6 hours. No water or coffee before going to the Oregon DMV.
“I despise the incompetent leftist Oregon pig ass freaking dog wad government.” Excellent sentiment!
It would be simple to assign numbers to those waiting in line. That way you can take a coffee/potty break without losing your place. That is how our local Canadian DMV operates. The people can do it themselves if the DMV people can’t be bothered. We need to take the initiative like that, in many ways, as we go through this crisis. The self-organization of the Truckers’ Convoy was amazing –worthy of a book and dissertations in Sociology.
They do. But you have to be able to get inside the office to get a number. And you have to remain inside, as they don’t have a loudspeaker outside the door to hear when they call your number.
The DMV is wanting for employees. The ones that might want to work for them are folks like me who can’t as the government jobs require you be jabbed. And all the young people seem to be living off of welfare and food stamps or living in their folks spare bedroom or basement and getting welfare and food stamps.
If we don’t rise up, all states will soon be like yours.
What is the incentive to visit the DMV? So you can hold a booby prize?
There really is no incentive, except perhaps if one wants to have a driver’s license. After Covid, everything else went online or by mail pretty much. Where I live in Oregon, we hardly ever see a cop and I wouldn’t be surprised if people drive without licenses or insurance, especially if it’s a choice between gargling the balls of the man or having food on the table. I know what I’d do.
In my neck of the woods I sometimes wonder if anyone goes to the DMV. Expired registration tags, no license plates, old vehicles cruising by, who know who owns them. I did everything by the book when moving there but gotta chuckle a bit about how life really goes in the woods.
Haven’t been to the closest DMV since Covid but it’s over an hour away through the forest and who knows I might never go there again.
ETA, love Oregon though, just not the Commies that run it.
How could the Economy be shrinking with job growth ? Un-productive job creation = Inflation.
And that’s what we’re witnessing.
Inflation has made retirees return to the job market for their retirement income can no longer support them.
That could very well be but gotta opine I live on practically nothing, on purpose, and do quite well. SS under a grand a month. That’s it.
I crunched the numbers on ‘work’ and, at the local rate for any jobs available, none in my skillset as a journeyman machinist, I’d have to work at least one hour a day, that’s one hour a day, just to pay for the diesel to get to town and back. I’d rather spend that time walking to the beach and going fishing, considering the price of fish these days.
That’s the one. Bingo.
Economist: You got that right. The low-end service economy is “booming” with poorly educated morons and people who cannot sleak English.
But, but, but Lunch Pail Joe is for the little guy.
Peter Schiff
@PeterSchiff
The gain of 528K #jobs in July as the labor force participation rate fell to 62.1, means that most of the new jobs went to people who already had jobs. Collapsing real wages force many workers to moonlight to pay the bills. If the labor market were strong one job would be enough.
The workforce participation rate is troubling. A whole lot of people do not want to work right now. I had some plumbing work done the other day, the plumber said his son stopped working because the COVID payouts were better than what he could make on a job. A young-ish guy making $4k per month doing nothing. Remember what Trump said? Trump is so prescient it’s not even funny!
Maybe that plumber’s son was on to something, he could make $4k / mo sitting on his hands while I worked as hard as ever after 13 years of my career to only being making about $4300/mo after tax.
Hey, maybe the real idiots are us! (not really)
It is not what Trump says about something which is ever wrong. It is the something Trump says about which is wrong.
When do the COVID payouts finally end!
When the check cashes
When do the COVID vaxx sales end? Same date for both.
The only one I’m aware of as a former self-employed person is the USDA SNAP supplement. California ended pandemic UI for self-employed people in 2021. Employed people who play the unemployment fraud game I trust still continue to play that game. It was around long before Covid though.
It sounds like the LPR dropped, not entirely because folks didn’t want work, but because job openings fell as businesses began cutting back because consumer spending is down.
Unless they defrauded PPP I have no idea how they could work that out and, besides, it all ended last year for self-employed people. No mas. Last September if memory serves. I was on pandemic UI and even at its most robust, which was only a short period with the 600 fed kicker, it was under 3 grand a month. That was over pretty fast back in 2020. After, it was half that. After last September, in California anyway, over and done.
I surely will never get vaccinated to work. I worked for myself for nearly 40 years and the main consistency throughout that time was distrust and hatred of government and all the humans in it. Businesses, particularly the small ones, found that out in spades during the bioweapon operation. Never again. This society blows.
All I can think of is people who are in real trouble. Two over the last 24 hours…
One lady in my community who, along with her husband, is employed, has children. But she posted anonymously saying she is ashamed, but has nowhere to turn. Inflation and electricity bills are wiping them out. She is sitting with AC at 90 degress. School clothes are out. She is desperate.
Another lady today on another thread who is over 55, lives in a small house with a mortgage in Florida, who needs a new (almost prohibitively expensive) roof. She said she can’t afford to buy food. Her insurance company will not renew her policy. And yes, I know, insurance companies in Florida are apparently dropping coverages because of damages that can be extensive if bad weather strikes.
Her mortgage is threatened because of this. She has nowhere to turn, and this morning was crying as she posted. She is terrified.
My heart is torn into bits for these people and I’m sure millions more like them.
So when I see the smirking faces of the malignant spokes-morons from this diabolical evil ideological administration telling America that yes, they know their policies are causing distress (they don’t know and worse, don’t care)…and yes, it is worth it…I find myself hating them all with an intense, blood boiling fury I’ve never felt in my life.
There is a name for people who intentionally inflict fear, misery, hopelessness, tears, worry, panic and financial devastation on others from their air conditioned offices whilst they enjoy all their creature comforts of a normal life WE’RE paying for.
Unfortunately my Southern upbringing won’t let me say it. Though in the most unChristian way possible, I do wish for every single soulless creature in government to receive a righteous dose of their own medicine. Now that would be Divine justice. A pox on all their houses.
Well said Betsy Jones!
Respectfully, Betsy and not knowing the particulars, many are suffering because without much thought they “did what everyone does” and even “what their parents did” and opted for “the great credit TRAP”.
Many don’t really want to know, and have no idea how much using credit REALLY costs them.
I had the opportunity for a side by side comparison with a neighbor awhile back.
He asked, because he couldn’t understand what he could see;
He was out of $, for the last week of every month.
And, had to watch every penny for the first 3 weeks.
Our incomes seemed (and when we compared, were) similar, and yet he saw me stockpling food, and apperently having $ ‘left over’ every month.
And it was almost entirely due to CREDIT, and yes it made an enormous difference.
I have ALWAYS been a contrarian, and look at how “everybody else does it” and then explore OTHER ways; 30-40 years ago, my kids were homebirthed and homeschooled.
I never got very far into the credit trap, and affirmatively got out, over 20 years ago.
“What if you have an EMERGENCY??” I access my reserve funds, sort of like “self-insuring”.
We make choices, and not to be cold, but certainly SOME of those who WILL Genuinely be hurting in the years to come,..are living with the consequences of decisions and choices they made, while not even realising they had options,…because its what ‘everybody else does’, they forgot what our parents told us; “If everybody else jumps off a cliff,…?”
I do understand what you are saying, Dutchman, and yes…particulars are important. But the truth is for these ladies, we simply do not know and can’t assume.
Many have come undone because of credit. I’d like to see a high school course required for graduation on personal finance, which would include the blazing facts about the use of credit.
But regardless, intentional destruction of citizens and our country is going on. And for me, to read others’ posts of fearfulness and distress and hopelessness? Well, no one has the right to inflict those sorts of inhuman actions which cause those feelings. No one.
This government is at war with every citizen. And that war was declared on November 3, 2020. the United States government is a terrorist organization. I’m afraid watching the effects their hideous deliberate ideologies on no matter whom is a dreadful thing. Inflation is a killer for many on limited funds. Deliberately killing the fuel lifeblood of everything in this country is a killer for everybody.
Seeing it, regardless of what has happened within the lives of those suffering to this point, but who are definitely being targeted with policies designed by psychopaths angers me more than I can adequately state. I’m sure you would feel the same, my friend.
Thanks for your comment, Dutchman .
When the government arbitrarily decided which business were essential and which weren’t and locked down citizens and businesses alike, I made a choice. I preserved my hard assets, not that fcking fiat currency, and used that stellar credit rating I had for over 50 years to fck the financial industry as much as possible. I’ve long known they are the real enemy in this. Have been since Jesus kicked the moneychangers out.
The government fcked with my business and my way of life after a lifetime of their regulatory bullsht. That was the last straw. It’s war now, to the death. I’m going to enjoy every minute of it no matter how it ends.
Oh, and power for the house and shop in CA last month was just under 350 bucks. Lighting, irrigation, minimal HVAC in the irrigated desert. A bit more than one third of my monthly income. No problem. I’m smiling now. Mission contours are fully fleshed out.
IT’s getting really bad, people are losing their financial abilities to pay for basics because bidenflation is eating their money so rapidly. You now see the same folks wandering around in the big cities like they are lost, they have no capacity to pay for things, cars, houses, insurance, etc. The California affect is going countrywide under Joe Stalin and we are just in the first inning of his Communist BS.
I know, Sam. If the Stalinist greenies in power in California cut off water to the farms during this terrible drought, we will all feel it sooner rather than later. And in fact, I suspect that’s the centerpiece of their abominable Holodomor type machinations. Newsome and his lieutenants seem to be great admirers of that part of Stalin’s genocidal reign of terror.
I can’t stress enough how worried I am for those who see no way out, including families who have children. You know, those small humans who the sociopathic Dems always trot out in their odious political weep-fests, pretending to actually care about them.
Which, given their attempts to perform genital mutilation on said children, indoctrinate them into perversion, or kill them with their beastly jabs, they’d be advised to eliminate from their future ads.
We southerners do have a way to express it genteelly- well bless their hearts…
Said in just the right tone., with an imperceptible dash of sarcasm and a dollop of pity.
Desantis needs to do something about the insurance mess in FL…If she has a mortgage they will place a policy on her home for the value of the mortgage. I shopped around for my AIRBNB insurance and found two policies, one is 3600, one 3800..in FL. We were at our Ocala house in May/June and the Christian Church around the corner from us had cars lined up waiting for boxes of food..There are many small Christian Churches in NC FL..maybe have your friend hook up with one..I belong to local community FB Groups and find them very supportive, friendly and helpful..more so in FL than SW PA..
this is deja vu ~2009 forward all over again – “Employment is getting better!”
Take the total job gain, subtract the part time jobs and you are left with full time jobs declining
and the same ol same ol decreasing labor participation
deja vu man
“Shovel Ready Jobs” or something.
A job at McDonald’s is not the same as that of a commercial pilot, yet both count the same for jobs cteated.
We are back to the Obamanomics of just a few years ago..
Real unemployment July 2022 ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment rose to 24.4% from 24.3% on top of U.6 rising to 6.73% from 6.67%
The unemployment rate is so low because there’s so many deadbeats whom have quit looking for work and are waiting for the inevitable big government program or check.
Some people retired early to avoid the clot shot. Most would have had a difficult time finding comparable work and pay, being in their early sixties.
Such things are very easy to say, but unless you know these lazy layabouts personally, you might want to consider the possibility that there’s more to it than that.
Just because they aren’t working doesn’t mean they are lazy.
Maybe they are doing other things… not everyone has to work to survive.
Most people don’t know how to manage money, so they will always be slaving away on the plantation.
I know, that’s my point. I’m not part of “the labor force” because I’m a SAHM. Doesn’t make me a deadbeat.
I haven’t worked for years and pay for my own stuff, stop believing your own lies.
So… basically, the people who are working, are working even harder, often taking on secondary and tertiary jobs to keep up with inflation. While the people who aren’t working are still not working.
I’d still like to know “where are all the workers”? Who are the people who have dropped out and why? Gosh I wish I knew how to research that. There are so many manipulated numbers coming out of the government there’s no telling what’s happening under the surface.
I can only go by experience and in my immediate family (children, spouses, grandchildren), 2 adults dropped out of the workforce due to covid policies and they have not gone back to work as their families adjusted to one income. Several families moved to lower cost of living states and adjusted to a lower standard of living. All of us feel the pinch of inflation, some more severely than others (the commuters). Some are reeling from the increase in electricity, gas, food. This economy is in a very weird place and it’s definitely not healthy if you’re a regular American.
I appreciate TCH for giving me data points from real people in real places about what’s happening. In the fairly-well-off parts of our family, not much seems to have changed; in the less-well-off, there is more looking at moving elsewhere, more gardening, stocking up, and encouraging teenagers to seek serious jobs sooner than might have happened otherwise.
Under Obama I was putting in 80-90 hours a week, after all was said and done the taxes ate up all the excess gains I should of had. Now with BidenInflation and the (high taxes) these people working 2-3 jobs are gonna get their A$$es completely cleaned out come tax time.
A mass amount of people who are struggling right now are the same people who voted for Biden.
And they still blame Trump!
If there is any silver lining on this black turd cumulus cloud, that may be it.
I would not call Slo Joe’s feeble support a “mass” unless you are including the fantasy numbers that Dominion made up for him
Amen.
I’m Calling BS on the Second Straight Amazing Jobs Report, Understanding Why
The economy added a much higher than expected 528,000. This follows a much higher than expected 372,000 jobs in June. But the discrepancy between jobs and employment is amazing.
5 Aug 2022
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-big-jobs-blowout-are-the-numbers-believable-or-will-there-be-revisions
New York Fed Credit Report Demolishes Myth of Strong Consumer Balance Sheet
Credit card usage surged $46 billion in the second quarter as consumers struggle to maintain their standard of living,
AUG 3, 2022
https://mishtalk.com/economics/new-york-fed-credit-report-demolishes-myth-of-strong-consumer-balance-sheet
So, just as with the CPI figure, COVID vaccine effectiveness and safety, etc., etc., etc., etc., it’s all BS.
A colossal crime that must be cleared by an arrest, prosecution, and sentence that provides Justice.
And that won’t happen. We’ll just have interminable hearings that produce nothing but hot air telling us what we already know.
All this jiving with the numbers at the source reminds me of the game playing that Obama engaged in to appear to be repairing things during his first term. It was all smoke and a few mirrors as I recall.
Sorry Sundance you are arguing the incorrect point. The correct argument is that the BLS is an openly partisan org that is cooking the books. Trying to use logic based upon bogus data is a losing proposition.
I work in the employment space and the disconnect is very real. Several things are happening that unless you work in this space, you will not understand the numbers. 4 million women have not re-entered the job arena and unless the opportunity is remote, most will stay out.
As we are entering this downturn, more employees will be contract. Within 2 years over half of all positions will be contract. This trend has been happening for the past 3 years.
A lot of people are dead or permanently injured.
The biggest difference are the sign on bonus hoppers. This is something my clients are encountering often. A person is staying long enough to collect a bonus and then starts looking. The positions are closed and then several months later reopened thus looking like perpetual job creation. Some can collect 7k a pop, half at hire half in 3 months. Some are not even waiting depending upon the offer agreement.
Another job close job reopened situation is the counter-offer. This can come up to several months later even. It is crazy.
Good points, but I’d challenge “more jobs will be contract”, when Leaders Of The Future such as Gavin Newsom are doing their damnedest to end contract work. It’s all about unions and tax revenue to the progressive governors.
Companies want to be able to scale up or down fast. There is definitely an upswing trend in contract employment that we have been seeing for a few years. I do this for a living. Companies will move these types of employees to plants or facilities in other states. Contract candidates are not afraid to move around. There is also an upswing in contact with possible direct.
Out of curiosity – didn’t California just make being an independent contractor illegal? Forcing freelance writers to get onto a company’s payroll, Uber drivers to become employees with taxes, etc. deducted, even independent truck owning drivers being required to become an employee of a trucking firm or they can no longer make deliveries in California – how will that affect things?
Yes, with negative affects. Many with those jobs have left the state for other states. Other negative affects have not bee felt, as of yet, but its coming.
also basically destroying the owner-operator trucking industry in the state
𝐒𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐛𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐥𝐚𝐛𝐨𝐫 𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐛𝐞𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/labor-market-pandemic-recovery-complete-131235603.html
We have a number of people in town working multiple jobs because they cannot get enough hours at only one.
Some business, mostly small restaurants still close a couple of days a week because of insufficent staff….or the ability to pay more and remain profitable to be open all week.
And there still is no shortage “Help Wanted” banners, posters and sign up tables at many businesses.
.
From a Zerohedge article just posted…
Consumer credit reported today for June (one month late…wonder why?) jumped an additional $40.154 billion. The expectation was for a “mere” $27 billion. People’s credit cards which are sustaining them are coming perilously close to being maxed out.
I thought the following comment will be perhaps the best I’ll see on this horrible situation, brought to us by the CEOs of USSA, Inc.
“Ever see a horse get spooked? There is such a look of panic in their eyes. Horses are lovely creatures, but when spooked, they are known to cause harm to themselves and their rders. Most simply lose control.
I see that same look now when I look in people’s eyes…
Most of these people have no idea what is coming for them…but they have a ****ling feeling it’s not going to be good.”
I agree. And here I thank Sundance for following this as closely as he has done.
The one thing not said is that once the reality of the state we’ve been pushed to hits those who are not aware so far, it will certainly get extremely ugly as panic buying sets in. With deliberately disrupted supply chains slow to keep stores filled, that will be the point when I believe this country, already balancing on the edge, will finally lose its footing.
I pray mightily it won’t come to that. But I sense we are much further down that road than most will admit, courtesy of fantasy BLS and other government issued figures, designed to keep the masses in a state of ignorance as to our true situation.
Betsy, I went out last evening just to get a feel for things locally, as I have been traveling a lot the past month.
Reading your comments just now helped me to settle in my mind some of what I was experiencing last night. Things could get ugly very fast, indeed.
I am so sorry to hear that Phflipper. And yes, there is an unpleasant, disturbing miasma in our area as well.
Remembering one of Neil Oliver’s monologues on how no matter what one may hear to the contrary (state sponsored propaganda), there is just a gut feeling that things aren’t right, and that we should all trust our instincts.
Call it intuition. Call it anything you like. My experiences are exactly like yours.
I ve been saying for awhile now thst I haven’t seen the any drop off in business as far as my restaurants go. We can’t keep up and we are massively short staffed looking to hire.
It might be a phenomenon of “eat drink and be merry for tomorrow ye die”. Then tomorrow comes … suddenly.
It could be. But like Sundance says it just doesn’t make any sense.
what State?
Washington.
That’s very powerful pic (painting)!!
Prices are getting really high. I was just on a 4-day in-state road trip. I looked at my account when I got home, and the amounts spent on my debit card for fast food, grocery store filler for the hotel, and non-fancy sit-down restaurants are the highest I’ve ever seen.
For example:
We ordered a gyro, a pepperoni pizza, and a kids spaghetti with 4 teas at a mom and pop pizza place: $54.53 before tip.
At Buffalo Wild Wings we ordered a kids cheeseburger meal, kids chicken tenders meal, an adult cheeseburger with fries, I think an 8 count wings with fries meal, and 4 teas: $53.12 before tip.
At Outback a kids cheeseburger meal, adult fried chicken sandwich, adult chicken tenders, an adult cheeseburger, and 3 iced teas: $60.13 before tip.
The grocery store (Harris Teeter) was almost worse – I can’t remember exactly but for 1 bottle of seltzer water, 3 frozen dinners, a pre-made deli sub, a bag of chips, some fruit, and 6 cupcakes: 43.85
Restaurants, unnecessary merch retailers, and the like are not going to stay open at these prices and a lot of people are going to lose their jobs.
SW OH Farmers market today:
4 tomatoes
6 ears of sweet corn
2 smallish cucumbers
2 largish green peppers
$15
A cooler, some ice, lunch meat, chips and water would be a lot less.
seems you are oblivious at POS….I notice higher prices as they are presented not after they are a fact
I don’t know what your problem is. I was just sharing recent prices because I had receipts. No need to be unpleasant to a complete stranger.
I think you did pretty good.
All they do is lie.They think people do not see whats going on in the real world.Walmart cutting corporate positions,as are many others.Smaller businesses scaling back also.They are in desperation mode as a majority no longer buy into their propaganda media.Now just read that they are looking at canceling student loan s in order to get more people to vote for these hyenas at the midterms.This is their Waterloo moment and they know it.Look at Kari Lake in AZ.praise God she was victorious and the crooks are shaking even though they may not show it.Now is the time to stick together to get as many of these corrupt and power drunk individuals out this November.Pride goes before the fall.
My small neighbourhood Walmart is cutting the hours of its employees, many of whom I’ve gotten to know well. These friends tell me they can’t live on the 4-8 hours a week a number of them are getting only. It’s just a matter of a short time before these fine people quit and look for work elsewhere.
What then? Keep reducing the store workers’ hours so that hiring will be difficult? I am wondering if in the future we will see Walmart shuttering some stores if things are so bad they are eliminating positions at the top.
Walmart treat their employees horribly. I know from several family/friend experiences. I hate Walmart with a passion.
Unfortunately we have 30 more months of O’Biden, after which there may be nothing left to save. A 2023 Congress bloviating in worthless hearings won’t stem the red tide.
“303,000 were part time jobs with the largest growth in the jobs in restaurants and bars.”
This sounds like a jobs report from the 1st Obama era.😒
Speakeasies were crowded all thruout the depression,…so bars will always do well.
In good times, people celebrate.
In bad times, they commiserate.
Either way, booze is a main ingredient.
And don’t forget the Obamacare fiasco..my insurance premiums tripled..
“,…and in State and local education (-62,000).
That isn’t just because of summer break, right?
Teachers are still counted as employed,…right?
Cause otherwise this is great news, and seems inexplicable.
Are the purple haired, nose ringed trysexual demons of tic toc abandoning teaching jobs, because now they have to go back to “work” instead of “working from home”,…seems unlikely.
“Labor Report, 528,000 Jobs Gained in July, Large Gains in Restaurants and Services.”
These are Temporary Visa Jobs.
They are filled by Foreigners working temporarily in the US.
They will go back home to their countries in a few months.
“A few days ago, we were discussing the disconnect within the economy as it relates to corporate valuations.”
“Something is profoundly disconnected, or else the corporations would be raising hell with the politicians.”
It’s probably a combination of things:
1. With regard to Corporations:
The boards are being replaced by liberal activists who won’t complain.
Many board members don’t own stocks in the company (Twitter…for example).
So, they don’t care if the company crashes.
They collect a paycheck as long as they keep their mouths shut.
Why would they complain to the politicians?
2. With regard to the stock market:
The fund managers can buy the losing ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance)
stocks with funds from pension funds and individual 401K or IRA investments.
The largest loss ratio compared to portfolio size for this past year has been to Main Street portfolios…
not Wall Street Big League portfolios.
As long as they can keep transferring the losses to Main Street portfolios, why would Wall Street care?
This action is a break of their fiduciary trust to their clients and is illegal.
They certainly aren’t going to complain to the politicians.
The largest LOSS RATIO compared to PORTFOLIO SIZE for this past year has been to Main Street portfolios…
not Wall Street Big League portfolios.
As long as they can keep transferring the losses to Main Street portfolios, why would Wall Street care?
Yep!
Economy in free fall and people just trying to survive, the Old Joe dementia math economy.
If they cannot sell all the junk they are making, now? And people are working multiple jobs to pay for a roof food utilities and transportation to and from work, that pays for a roof food utilities. They have created a world of no joy! Reminds me of the old Soviet Union, never saw a smiling face in commieland, never. Now the whole world will experience that same miser.
Just like the Soviet Union where the people that caused that miser, they will be put down. This time the people will put them out of their miser, hard. You know the old saying, ‘Misery Loves Company,’ well, I for one do not like miserable people!
It took 70 years of misery before the Soviet fall, and they’re still not smiling in the way the free world has been used to.
There is plenty of stuff, nobody can afford any of it. Quite the interesting predicament. Brand new cars on lots all over the place, just wasting away. When you saw Obama stick his hands in the GM cookie jar, you knew car prices were going to go up and they did. Then you see the European luxury carmakers trading down from $60,000-$100,000 vehicles to more lower end $30,000 vehicles to make sales and yet people still can’t afford them without taking out a 6-7 year car loans in this crap economy. It’s the communist way, but hey Biden is still throwing our money at the automakers and the unions that control them. So I guess they will never learn, as long as the kickbacks keep flowing back to democrats that is.
There was a rise in the number of people with two jobs not counted, My belief was that unemployment only counts the people that file, with all the lost jobs, and people collecting complete benifit, you need to have past working history to collect, need to pay in before you can collect so some have no reason to file. The numbers we get are all fudge Sundance has shown it many times.
Logical explanation thanks for the information.
gasoline sales are same dollar amount now as pre-Covid which means only half the gas amount is being sold because gasoline costs twice as much today. So only half as much is spent on production and delivery yet profits have essentially doubled.
Never fear. They’ll revised the numbers once the very fake news hysterical drive media has convinced the a&&es that the economy is in the bestest state EVER. Just hold yer breath…
It needs to be stressed that 303,000 part time jobs does not mean 303,000 workers. There are people working full time by stringing as many as four part-time jobs together. This is how you get a jobs increase in tandem with a declining labor force participation rate.
Wages are not nearly as good an index of economic health as benefits. How many part time workers enjoy the kinds of benefits packages that typically attach to full time employment?
There you go again making sense. That’s so militia violent extremist…
Thank you. And now you know why I am an emeritus member of the faculty of one of America’s more prestigious research-oriented universities. The one thing university administrators are no longer willing to tolerate is faculty who make sense.
1. They outright steal the 2020 election
2. Lie to you about the Covid Vax
3. And simply redefine the word recession to deny reality,
And you are scratching your head to make sense of lying numbers from proven liars?
“Therefore, less units are being engaged made, sold and purchased.”
Fewer, not less. Arghhh!
The Fortune 50 manufacturer I work for just this week is cutting spending, reducing headcount, and not hiring unless necessary. That happened just this week, 1 month into the 3rd qtr. Oct could be ugly. The area hospitals are looking to reduce agency, even if it means consolidation of services. Also, where I live there are very few ‘gubbimint’ jobs, so folks are quick to pull back – that really started after July 4th.
Most of the jobs are in restaurants and bars, eh? Most likely those jobs are being filled by people who cross the border recently.
In simple economic terms, those with pricing power win (connected corporates) and those without pricing power (common wage earners) lose. Inflation is a cruel game that transfers wealth from the have-nots to the haves.
Like most of everyone here, I have ZERO confidence in any numbers the US government is putting out. Been that way since the first two Obama terms (we’re essentially in his third). They fabricated back then. They lied during Trump’s…to the negative. And they’re fabricating now.
Regarding the hospitality industry, my guess is…among other things…they are not counting jobs lost as workers leave one place of employment to go work at another. I’m intimately familiar with two popular fast casual chains and their worker churn at my locations is virtually unprecedented. Certainly in comparison to the past 30 years.
I have a 25 year career under my belt in high level corporate HR jobs, I’ve worked for Fortune 100 companies, and worked for companies that were vendors to them as well. I made good money, but I was becoming fat, depressed and feeling like I was back in high school. Dow Chemical forced my hand in 2018 when they terminated my contract – 2 months notice, no severance. I live in rural area and was commuting 40 minutes every day. I floated from little contract work here and there, doing some work for the City on a project that was funded through a grant – at any rate, I decided to be a waitress until I found another “big girl” job. I’m proud to say, I’m no longer fat, I’m not depressed anymore, and I’ve had one hell of a spiritual awakening. While the “back in high school” feeling is there because there is workplace drama – but I’m making as much, and some days more per hour than I did contracting at Dow.
I help run a small family owned restaurant that is in our central downtown area of our small town of 3000 – but its a stop off the road for travellers because its halfway up “North” for the big cities, its quickly becoming a tourist destination….well I started there as a waitress 3 years ago under the understanding that it was temporary until I found my next corporate gig. Well I’m still there, finding myself guiding misguided youth that shuffle through there for job, giving guests a kind word when I read they are down, its really become a part of me. The owners take care of me. And I make great tips, I’m close to home, tax benefits, etc. etc.
But the point is, we can’t keep anyone working. The money isn’t great for kitchen staff. We try, but its super hard because costs just to keep the place running keep going up. We had to up our prices a buck across the board on the menu. Supply issues are still a problem. There is no trust and loyalty between employees/employers anymore and that sucks.