Purchasing managers for both goods and services are reporting a strong contraction in orders. The decline in goods has been subtle up to this point, with June and July now reflecting a significant change to the negative. More concerning is the severe change on the service side.
Contraction within business activity is now happening in almost all sectors of the economy.
Bloomberg Reports – US business activity contracted in July for the first time in more than two years as manufacturers and service providers signaled sluggish demand that only adds to heightened recession anxieties.
The S&P Global flash composite purchasing managers output index slid 4.8 points to 47.5, the weakest reading since May 2020, the group reported Friday. Outside of the early months of the pandemic, the July figure is the weakest in data back to 2009. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.
[…] “The preliminary PMI data for July point to a worrying deterioration in the economy,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.
“Manufacturing has stalled and the service sector’s rebound from the pandemic has gone into reverse, as the tailwind of pent-up demand has been overcome by the rising cost of living, higher interest rates and growing gloom about the economic outlook,” Williamson said.
Similar results were seen in Europe. The group’s index of activity in the euro area unexpectedly shrank for the first time since early 2021. Output worsened among manufacturers, while growth in the service sector came close to stalling. (read more)
Keep in mind while this business contraction is happening, the policy makers in the U.S. and Europe are still using the talking points that “demand is driving inflation” – and they are *not* talking about energy demand.
The Federal Reserve and Central Bankers policies are constructed around a false premise that consumer demand for goods and services is the cause of inflation. The premise is a lie, they know it is a lie, and they know the people closest to the economy know it is a lie. Yet they continue to lie because the multinational corporate media is part of the narrative engineering.
The policies from western government, political, fiscal and monetary, are based on a lie to create a false justification. It cannot be overstated how dangerous this is, when the reality of what they are manipulating comes crashing into the unavoidable consequence of what they have created.
Talk about a group of lying scumbags! It’s the old saying, “A picture says a thousand words”.
Wow…Second commenter!! Awesome Sundance!!!!
Honest question: “When the reality of what they are manipulating comes crashing into the unavoidable consequence of what they have created,” what do you think will happen?
When they run out of manipulation and spin we will witness the real depth of their deception and lies. It will not be pretty.
One thing for sure, it won’t be pretty.
They will scurry into the darkness, making it someone else’s problem.
Returning later to try again. 🙄
The housing market will fall, unemployment will rise, basic goods will be out of reach of even the middle class. 401K will be gone, there will be bank runs and bail -ins with people losing up to 50% of their savings. Farmers will fall along with their farms. Truckers will stop trucking, cars will be parked unable to drive for need of parts, or lack of finance for gas. Rents won’t be paid, homelessness will rise, and crime will become so bad that even the left AH’s will be begging for a gun.
In short, it is the end of America.
Or war.
Oh dear Lord, I hope it’s not that bad! :'( Dearest Lord, Father God, we need you. Please guide and help us to defeat this wickedness. In Jesus’ holy name we pray; amen!
Unless the States stand up to the federal bureaucrats, it will be that bed. Layoffs are already starting.
War.
They will print more faux money !!!!
Sri Lanka and Panama here we come !
Hey, I know all the escape trails in Panama!
Bring out your dead!
Bring out your dead!
It’s all down hill from here!
And gaining momentum like any true avalanche .
It’s to late to be concerned about the crash just avoid impact & RECOIL …
Scum bags.
At this point, especially following Sundance’s sound forcasting, have we considered what a disastrously dangerous environment we’re heading for? Yes, absolutely the US and all of the Western WEF puppet nations are going to crash, but just how ugly things will get, is hard to imagine. It is no wonder why the current crop of globalist leftist puppets are trying everything they can to disarm the population. When this thing starts, sadly, you better have a sound personal protection and defensive plan with a ton more ammo than you might think you’d ever need. What’s that old saying? ‘BETTER TO HAVE IT AND NOT NEED IT THAN NEED IT AND NOT HAVE IT”
Get solar, ammo, plant potatoes etc.
Good advice; thank you! 🙂
Read up on permaculture. Something tells me they will outlaw homesteads with small amounts of livestock and neat rows of vegetables.
Plant your food amongst the shrubs and under trees. Make it look like a regular garden, or get grow lights while still affordable and utilize your garage or back room etc I have a wonderful hedgerow of sweet potatoes this year
Thank you; that is EXCELLENT advice. BLESSINGS to you and yours! 🙂
growing lemon trees to give to other magas from seeds next are oranges and my bananas have 2 rows very green planting onions as well plan on dehydrating eggs plan and prepare God bless sundance and CTH
All is going according to plan.
Double meanings exist.
That’s the problem.
Double the cost to move man and materials and the inflation in material costs and surprise your out of business . The customer base cannot pay the cost difference or won’t pay it so they retract !
Need to replace my deck forget it now $$$$ pre Biden $$ fact
I went everywhere and Online trying to find someone to erect a 6ft fence around 3 acres of land. No one wanted the job. Couldn’t even get a quote
Wow! 🙁
maybe think outside the box eg australian cypress grow very large and are invasive
They still have a way to go to break America. Just back from breakfast at Georgies where steak and eggs and bloody mary’s for two is $70 with tip. Ocean calm and still there. At a long table next to us were three competent young men who did not have any trouble knowing what a woman is and is good for because they each had a beautiful wife and three to four little children each. Just delightful! Little ones got a kick out of watching the whale spouts and pelicans. At the grocery store four young competent men were loading two trucks with groceries. As I went by I asked if they were going out for albacore. Black cod is what they are after. Comparing this real America to the wet fart in the white house …
great reporting merrie.
All the rich involved in this “transition” will get even richer. Has nothing to do with climate change or the environment. It is all about making money. Also, power and control.
They forget there are more of us than they, and they are not afraid of us. We need to change that narrative.
With 9% inflation they are 9% poorer already.
Wait for Turkish or Venezuelan rates…
Many of the Celebrities that Obama consults with behind closed doors, of whom are his biggest supporters are now looking at doing more business with the Chinese, (Especially since Biden is bankrupting our entire society here at home.) I recently saw one Obama celeb who is expanding her Mexican liquor line into China as a partnership. Her partner in the Liquor business all mexicans aside is a Clinton Associate, Lol.
Do you think all the socialist built gangs will sit still? I don’t think so. We on and in the right need to start recruiting from those violent folks.
Why are liberals so dayum ugly? Dark hearts and minds I’m guessing.
They have a master. The devil and greed has made them who they are. We on the right are lead by a higher intelligence but even more a Higher Power. Keep the faith and we will not fail.
It’s only a matter of time before the mass lay offs start. When that happens, millions of American citizens are gonna be furious with this government. And BTW, what are all of those unskilled and uneducated illegal aliens gonna be doing when the jobs go away?
Not to worry. Those unskilled, uneducated illegals are going to be living off our hard earned tax dollars. They will not do without. Guaranteed.
Job Openings are beginning to vaporize.
Then it’s the PLUNGE.
They will be well housed, well fed, well clothed, given free health care and education, and so forth.
They are your replacements. It is you that the government has in its sights … and it is going to pull the trigger.
Yes, see this “The great Replacement” First 20 minutes with Tucker
https://www.revolver.news/2022/07/deranged-racist-chuck-schumer-loses-his-ever-loving-mind-on-senate-floor-over-tucker-carlson-and-the-great-replacement-theory/
building almost exclusively apartments paid for by taxpayers for illegals
There will be war.
Long but brilliant analysis of the not so smart monetary leadership of our FED and the world .
As of today, the Treasury 2y 10y yield curve has been inverted for 14 business days.
Example (4 pm): 10-year T-note yields 2.770%; 2-year T-note yields 2.991%. 10y minus 2y yield = (2.770% – 2.991%) = -0.221%.
An inverted yield curve is a near-infallible indicator of recession, although lead times vary.
We could be in recession right now, since the Federal Reserve was very late to start hiking rates.
Or, as in some previous outings, a recession could follow up to 18 months after the inversion.
Because the Everything Bubble was global and affected all assets (stocks, bonds, real estate), its bursting is expected to be an apocalyptic event when things start breaking in earnest.
I converted all my long term bond holdings into short term just today.
Cracks beginning to appear in “Communications” sector.
This sector doesn’t need the Fed to drive Demand Destruction.
Their insane price growth has no doubt put “cutting the cord” at the top of the list for the working and middle class.
Ditto for “Everything Subscription”.
Communications Services -4.3% today
AT&T -10.6% this week
Verizon -12.9% this week
Yessss!
Communications Services contains the woke, cancel-culture actors that we despise the most:
Facebook (Meta)
Google (Alphabet)
Twitter
Disney
https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/sector/xlc/portfolio
I rejoice when these wrongdoers’ stock prices get bitch-slapped into the gutter.
More, please, kind sellers!
I cut the cord in 2005….Awesome
One data point from an eBay seller. I sell in Business and Industrial categories. My sales have died.
My consulting work as an industrial consultant is still OK, but we are nearing the point when I expect customers to start putting off or cancelling work.
Demand is a constant, but what is in demand is constantly shifting. And when the harvest comes in this autumn, and the energy costs of harvesting and processing hit the grocery stores, you will see demand shrink down to basic necessities.
What I want to stress is that the American consumer and the Chinese producer are bound at the hip. Collapsing demand for products manufactured in China will pour more fuel on an already raging fire caused by the disintegration of the Chinese real estate and banking sectors. It is a virtual certainty that this will lead to war in the western Pacific.
We are trapped in a truly bizarre situation. Americans must consume to keep China afloat, and Taiwan and Japan out of a war of China’s making. The Fed, in my judgment, will have no choice but to reduce interest rates and print a minimum of six trillion dollars for another round of stimulus handouts. This will probably happen in the context of the midterm election.
Choose your analogy … Zimbabwe? The Weimar Republic? The Roman Empire in AD 275? This is a well trodden path, but it always leads to the same place.
\
China doesn’t need purchases from us to survive.
Seen the pictures of tanks currently in the streets of cities all over China? They are on the verge of financial collapse– and we are far and away the biggest consumer of their finished goods. Xi’s hold on power is weakening, to the advantage of the PLA. It is the latter that is gung ho to invade Taiwan, and the generals will not be content with lockdowns and energy shortages as excuses for the crippling of the economy. Beijing is as corrupt as DC, but there is no analog in the US to the scale of municipal corruption over there, which is ubiquitous. China is going to pay a heavy price for its notorious inability to conduct audits.
But can they survive is they can’t sell to us?
PRC’s economy will collapse with or without our markets….they are overextended and their fundamentals suck…….they will attempt to avert disaster for a bit by engaging Russia in Siberia for the raw materials but that will just delay the inevitable
I was under the impression that the wealthiest in the world make their money from having others in debt to them. They charge interest on this debt and make a profit.
If country after country starts to fall and has to wipe out its sovereign debt, who is out that money?
If, for instance, a new government takes over in Sri Lanka or Ukraine, how do you enforce repayment of previous debt?
Is this all a part of the plan:
Destroy Fiat Currencies…
Cancel the Sovereign Debt for now…
Start a One World Digital Currency controlled by the WEF,IMF,BIS,World Bank…
Offer this new digital currency as new debt to these now bankrupt countries in exchange for national assets…
Like mines, oil fields, farm land, etc?
Didn’t Zelensky just say that he was deferring all sovereign debt payments for 2 years?
When the music stops, best to not be the last to find a seat.
I have already begun winding down my bank accounts. Just enough in them to cover property tax etc I have started buying gold and silver, but more silver than gold.
I have also inflation proofed my pantry thanks to Sundance. I only had emergency buckets before, but now I have a mini supermarket.
KC, earning interest isn’t the only or even the main way Deep Wealth makes money. Businesses, countries are persuaded to take on debt, and grow it till it becomes unsustainable. Then, the debt, currency or company are shorted, with hysterical help from the press, value collapses, and Deep Wealth buys up the assets at the bottom, earning exceptional profits on the way back up. Cycle repeat.
Some thoughts.
Organic boom and bust cycles have always been the case with the economy in following with changes in demographics, technology, etc.
The difference under central banks like the Federal Reserve is that they suppress the shorter, more mild cycles and make for bigger extremes in those cycles. Lots of opportunities for graft at every stage, especially as each successive bubble implodes. A long con.
The central banks are private banks owned by the very wealthy (Rockefeller, Rothschild and their ilk). If countries default on their debt, it will be the central bank owners that are left holding the bag. There is zero reason why the US Treasury cannot issue it’s own gold backed funds and charge interest itself instead of having the middle man of the Federal Reserve create money out of thin air.
Is that what Lincoln’s Green Backs were?
Some even speculate that was one of the major reason why he was assassinated.
Yup.
Well, besides the fact that he spoiled some other’s plans for America for at least a time.
Not like the British were going to back the Confederacy for their own selfish interests in seeing the Union fail. Reminds me too of the Russian Czar, Alexander II using his fleets to dissuade direct European (French/ British) involvement in the American Civil War.
Yup.
Seems like “If you want to get rid of the Federal Reserve Bank, they will get rid of you.”
Like “Guns for hire”, they are “Money for hire”…They will take your money.
Capitalism Magazine features over 9,000 pro-capitalist articles that are free to read & share.
https://www.capitalismmagazine.com/
Can someone explain in some detail how hedge fund managers make money off of the decline of America? I only have the vaguest idea of how that works.
I’ll try with a rather simplistic explanation.
The entire western debt based financial system is overleveraged. They system itself cannot sustain itself because of too much government borrowing and spending with too little in return. The entire thing is a giant ponzi scheme propped up for way to long by rampant money printing by central banks. At some point, the interest on that printing exceeds these institutions ability to service the debt they themselves created out of thin air. That is where we are now. The writing is on the wall, the system will collapse on it’s own, or in an attempted controlled demolition as we are seeing now.
The big money managers and finance houses know this. They also know the traditional ways of resetting the system, war, create a situation that takes years, in this case maybe decades, or never, to resolve. With the outcome uncertain.
What they are attempting to do is manufacture a new economy, with them still at the very top. All based around a system of total control, where the plebes will be either relegated to servants, or eliminated. They/ monied people, but not at the very top of the actual decision making, falsely believe that they will enjoy the benefits this new system gives to the very few. Most of these people will be eliminated immediately as they pose the greatest threat to this new system, their ass ets will be fed into system or, the grinder at the new protein plant, along with anyone else who resists.
EU has lifted sanctions on Russian grain, fertilizer, and agricultural banks
To little and to late.
WEF playbook proceeding according to plan.
I’m a Plant Manager that supplies medical, Oil and Gas, and Semiconductor Equipment companies. So far, all areas are pretty maxed out. Our problem is finding people to hire.
what kind of positions? Which states?
Well, the illegal immigrants came to be exploited for cheap labor.
Nobody is buying. Americans are tapped out as they have gas and food to buy.
The gubbmint printed-dollar largesse is about to go tits up with the collapse of the petrodollar.
Let’s hope they make a decent taco or tamale to sell on the street corner.**
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**It’s 11:00 O’clock. Do you know where your cat is?
I am in truckload transportation; I can affirm that the US economy is in the ditch. Some of our customers’ facilities look like ghost towns.
Crazy times. But the talking heads and media always act surprised once “recession”
is announced, as if it’s even news at that point.
Just a note: Mrs. H.R. and I need some services,
Her mom is in memory care, and we need to sell her place.
It’s the way of the world and the way things are with dementia sufferers; she insisted she was just fine and could manage for herself. Of course not.
Well, we got her into a place where she is largely content (a miracle!) and we are going through her things and prepping her place to sell.
Here’s the on-topic point. There are some things that need fixing in her place before we can sell it for her.
Two months ago, we couldn’t get contractors to talk to us.
Last month, we started getting quotes.
This month, we got two crews in for a couple of issues, on time and at (currently) competitive rates. (They did well 👍👍).
We have two more “fixits” to go, and the place will be ready for sale.
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So for Sundance’s topic regarding services, all of a sudden, the prices are competitive, allowing for inflation on materials, and the contractors are returning calls and meeting scheduling.
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My point is that the service sector is doing the best they can to respond to the rapidly changing crap that’s being shoveled our way by the Buyden puppeteers.
Yeah, it all sucks the big hairy one, but Yankees are still nimble and are adjusting as fast as they can.
The ones who can’t adjust aren’t getting a second look from us.
So…
a) Yay Yankee ingenuity and go-geddiit-ness and
ii) Let’s Go Brandon! (eff his puppeteers)
How does one prep for the Dark ages?