University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School of Business, Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel, takes a closer look at the June jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Professor Siegel notes a .01% drop in average hours worked is the labor equivalent of losing 450,000 jobs.
With factory demand dropping, and with inventories climbing, and with FTE’s (Full-Time Equivalents) dropping, the jobs report takes on additional context that aligns with the overall decline we feel in Main Street activity. Essentially, regardless of how many jobs are “created” within the economy, the overall economic activity -as measured by the value of products & services generated- is declining.
Additionally, as noted by Professor Siegal, the current best estimate as reviewed by the several data points, is a current drop in overall GDP in the -2% range. Seigal points this information out because the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates into an economy that has declining (demand side) consumer activity, which, correctly as he states, only makes the contraction more severe. WATCH:
The core supply side costs (all based on energy policy) continue to increase and drive consumer prices upward. Simultaneously, consumer demand is dropping because the goods and services impacted by the increased costs (most of which are unavoidable) are more expensive. This creates a downward spiral. Consumer prices are increasing on housing, energy, food and gasoline (supply side impacts), at the same time discretionary spending contracts.
In this scenario there is no way to avoid a steep recession. However, the real priority of Joe Biden surrounds whether Jill will allow his favorite pudding, and if the shoes on the pancake mix keeps making sparkly rabbit noises.
Pretty soon they will dust off the old Obamboozler term “jobs created or saved”.
I miss “Shovel Ready”.. Our shovels were ready, to collect dust!
The only shovel ready jobs we need are building more lamposts in DC. The streets don’t have enough for the size of the task.
Yeah… well… you better get yer shovel ready… ‘cuz we got 30 more months of this Horse Crap.
I wonder if hemp is still made here in the Good Ol’ USA…HMMMM??? Me thinks that would be the solution according to the Constitution!!!!!
Ashes!
They keep talking about the coming Recession. Aren’t we already in one hell of a Recession?? Also, how in the world is the Unemployment stat only 3.5% there is no way I believe that!
There are lies, damn lies, and there are statistics.
The number that is important is not the unemployment rate. Unemployment rate is those who are not working but actively seeking work. We have a lot of people in the US who have totally dropped out of the labor force. The “labor force participation rate” has gone down to 62.2%. So, the real “unemployed” rate is 3.5% plus 37.8% of the labor force who are not working. In other words, there are over 40% of the people in this country who are not working.
Yep, many people don’t realize the official unemployment number only includes those who are eligible to collect unemployment benefits from the time of losing their last job. Usually just a year, possibly 16 months.
Why do you think 37.8% are not working? There’s a significant portion hooked on government benefits. But I wonder if there’s a good number of parents out there choosing to pull their kids out of government schools and do home schooling instead. Not sure where we get the stats to figure that out. Anyway, I hope there’s a partially good reason why we have 37.8% not working.
I think we are. This gross manipulation of the June Payrolls indicates that they know we are but are trying to forestall the worst news. At least until they can construct their narrative.
Everything reported is a lie!
they define “unemployment” to not count a lot of the unemployed. Eg in some states you need a work history before you can get unemployment benefits. if you are on the benefit buy worked for 2 hours in the fortnight they do the count, you are not counted as unemployed. things like this. there are no markets , just manipulations.
Cut loose the legal hounds on the medical/pharma complex, allow responsible, legal/environmentally sound resource harvesting/refining to occur, and the economy largely rebounds into a healthful equilibrium.
Here in S. E. Tn you would not know the the demand side is down. Everything is packed and people here seem like trouble is a million miles away. Gas is down, milk is down and finding large increases only on a few things.
Just wait till winter.
Gas dropped from $4.89 to $4.69 whoopee. It was $2.49 when Trump left office.
TN is getting a lot of people moving in from Blue States which hides the slow down issue. Everything Dee mentions is slightly down from very very high levels. It is like saying the 10 foot flood has dropped 2 inches and we are in great shape. We still cannot keep our head above water.
The biden loyalists wont like this
I don’t know any.. I think they’re phony, too!
Come owhalalflimflaman!
-Joe Biden
There are zero Biden loyalist. MCConnell & Pelosi congressional coup installed Biden. Good buddies for 50 years. DC swamp is the NWO and will fail. I am astounded by anyone that believes anything out of any “CIA controlled propaganda.
MegaBidenstagflation
I’m just waiting for someone to create a new meme captioned “Greatest depression ever!”
I guess pretty soon we’ll have a std 4 day work week and 25-30 hrs as full-time. At that rate almost no wage earner will be able to make ends meet and socialism will take full effect with little resistance.
It’s hard to resist when you and your family are hungry, often sick (due to vexx damaged immune systems), and unarmed.
That last line just made me sniff soda up my nose with laughter.
#MeToo
A Professor of finance who understands economics seems to backup that they cooked the books. Didn’t Trump attend Wharton School of Business? Bungles Biden and his gang are starting look like nothing but a bunch of frauds when you look closely at the numbers.
I wonder how they are going to lie their way out of this mess.
Today I purchased an item at a local hardware store that has always cost under $5. Today it was $11.99.
I guess they’re sticking with inflation of around 6%?
Must be the new math.
Our electric bill for last month announced price increases, which we were expecting. A fraction under double per kwh.
Would not be surprised if that number is proportionally quite close to the increase in price for natural gas. Incidentally, one of the biggest sources of electricity on the grid via combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) generators.
Or the old “okey-dokey.”
Just say it……the numbers are a FRAUD!
The folks who run the BLS have been cooking the books for decades in favor of communist democrats and to the detriment of capitalist republicans. Time to clean house and get some new blood and brains in the every govt position
First, why don’t we eliminate all non-Constitutional govt. agencies. That ought to eliminate at least 80% of all govt. positions.
Love it! Just needs a bed, blanket, and binky in the background for nappy-nap time.
Prof Siegal’s calculations are quite clever. The hours of work also impact weekly income of course which is not good if the weekly hours are reduced during an inflationary period which seems to be the case today.
Meanwhile every mainstream media outlet today, including Fox, is touting the “great” jobs report of 372,000 new jobs and a booming economy. While this is totally misleading the 85% of the country that watches just these outlets is now convinced the economy is booming and a big win for Joe Biden. And don’t forget the coverage of how gas prices have dropped 20 cents in the last 10 days.
Gas is down 20 cents?
OH BOY! I can trash my application for a second mortgage. All is well. 🙄
This guy will be cancelled before the week is out. Shame on him for thinking on his own.
Our dinner guest this evening told us a story of how his wife’s assistant went to the Post Office to get their business mail. Payroll has to be paid and they needed any incoming customer payments to offset it. The Post Office worker said they hadn’t even finished processing June yet. Can’t get good help.
Apparently no one wants to work for the Delusional Joe occupied gubt regime.
They lie……
We know they lie…..
They know that we know they lie…..
But they continue to lie…..
They don’t care.
Sundance: “However, the real priority of Joe Biden surrounds whether Jill will allow his favorite pudding, and if the shoes on the pancake mix keeps making sparkly rabbit noises.”
We must, MUST keep the pResident focused on the top priority issues of the day.
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P.S. You left out “Changing Gropin’ Joe’s Depends when he gets fussy,” Sundance.
(Wish I could put a winky here, but it’s probably just a matter of fact.)
Just as beauty is in the eye of the beholder, data insights are in the mind of the interpreter.
With that in mind remember, when it comes to data insights, some people swim on the surface of the data pool. Some dive into the weeds. When you find the person covered in muck and sediment, that’s where you find real insight.
So the jobs created were part time work……….which means that the Biden Economy is forcing households to work two-three-four jobs to cover expenses like food, shelter, energy, etc.
Come this winter, people will die from the cold. And that fact will be all but ignored by the MSM to keep the sniveling fool from looking any worse that he already does. People will be dead, and the government won’t care so it can protect its power.
Biden is expendable.
When the heat for all these disasters gets too intense he will be “retired” in some way, and Kamala will be next up at bat.
Of course, none of the previous disasters were her fault, so the “press” will give her a pass on all that went before, and will cheer lead the nation in the wonders of the first woman president.
That’s if Hillary permits it, of course.
Global inflation is being driven by global energy prices/shortages caused by stupid/evil western government policies.
Raising interest rates just deflates the asset bubbles and perhaps reduces spending by the top 10%.
This reminds me of 1992 and our provincial government announcing they were fronting The Northwest Company money to buy a warehouse from The Hudsons Bay Company. It was creating 142 new jobs with this investment.
I remember finding this out as the CBC started its local news that night with this. I was one of 127 Bay employees losing our jobs that day. It was not mentioned in the government announcement nor by the CBC