BUMPED by request. Unfortunately, there is a lot of wrong information being discussed and shared. Even reputable regional media are giving inaccurate information, making wrong interpretations {LINK}, and generally getting the explanations wrong. Additionally, there’s general misinterpretations of ordinary outages based on the day of the week (Sunday) and bad weather in the Northeast {ex Twitter Thread}.
All of these #BidensEmptyShelves assumptions, which are being heightened by increased attention and social media, are leading to confusion.
An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption. Those are mostly location and regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather and employee shortages.
What CTH has been describing for the past several months is NOT what is noted above. What we have been describing is a long term supply chain crisis that will slowly unfold over a period of about a week or two, and then remain a problem over time, for a period of 6+ months. {GO DEEP}
The thirteen bullet points below are the issues we will first notice as the general food supply chain begins to show signs of that type of vulnerability. This outline explains why it is happening and how long it can be expected.
In the previous October, November and December warnings, we emphasized preparation and counted down the 90-day window. Now, as we enter the final two weeks before mid/late January, the date of our original prediction, it appears that some media are starting to catch up, and the larger public is starting to notice.
Feel free to note in the comments section what is happening in your area. Hopefully, most of us are much better positioned than the average person who has not been following this as closely over the past several months.
Initial food instability signs in the supply chain. Things to look for:
(1) A shortage of processed potatoes (frozen specifically).
And/Or a shortage of the ancillary products that are derivates of, or normally include, potatoes.
(2) A larger than usual footprint of turkey in the supermarket (last line of protein).
(3) A noticeable increase in the price of citrus products.
(4) A sparse distribution of foodstuffs that rely on flavorings.
(5) The absence of non-seasonal products.
(6) Little to no price difference on the organic comparable (diff supply chain)
(7) Unusual country of origin for fresh product type.
(8) Absence of large container products
(9) Shortage of any ordinary but specific grain derivative item (ex. wheat crackers)
(10) Big brand shortage.
(11) Shortage of wet pet foods
(12) Shortage of complex blended products with multiple ingredients (soups etc)
(13) A consistent shortage of milk products and/or ancillaries.
These notes above are all precursors that show significant stress in the supply chain. Once these issues are consistently visible, we are going to descend into food instability very quickly, sector by sector, category by category.
At first, each retail operation will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
♦ BACKGROUND – Do you remember the dairy farmers in 2020 dumping their milk because the commercial side of milk demand (schools, restaurants, bag milk purchasers) was forcibly locked down? Plastic jugs were in short supply, and the processing side of the equation has a limited amount of operational capacity.
To remind us of how the issues started in 2020, a dairy farmer helps to explain:
“Are we dumping milk because of greed or low demand, no. It’s the supply chain, there are only so many jug fillers, all were running 24/7 before this cluster you-know-what.
Now demand for jug milk has almost doubled. However, restaurant demand is almost gone; NO ONE is eating out.
Restaurant milk is distributed in 2.5 gal bags or pint chugs; further, almost 75 percent of milk is processed into hard products in this country, cheese and butter. Mozzarella is almost a third of total cheese production; how’s pizza sales going right now??
A bit of history – Years ago (40+) every town had a bottler, they ran one shift a day, could ramp up production easily. Now with all the corporate takeovers (wall street over main street) we are left with regional “high efficiency” milk plants that ran jug lines 24/7 before this mess, no excess capacity.
Jug machines cost millions and are MADE IN CHINA. Only so many jugs can be blown at a jug plant. We farmers don’t make the jugs, damn hard to ramp up production.
I’m a dairy farmer, believe me NO dairyman likes dumping milk; and so far there is NO guarantee they will get paid. Milk must be processed within 48 hours of production and 24 hours of receipt in the plant or it goes bad. Same with making it into cheese and butter, and neither stores well for long.
The same supply line problems exists where restaurants are supplied with bulk 1 pound blocks of butter or single serv packs or pats; and cheese is sold in 10 to 20 pound bags (think shredded Mozzarella for pizza). Furthermore, it is not legal for this end of the supply chain to sell direct to consumers in most states.
Take cheddar cheese for instance; it goes from mild to sharp to crap in storage. Butter, frozen, only stores for so long and then must be slowly thawed and processed into other uses as it gets “strong”. At Organic Valley we cook it down into butter oil or ghee for cooking.
We are headed for the same problem with canned veggies. The vast majority of produce comes off and is processed in season; canned or frozen. The supply is already in cans for the season; restaurants use gallon cans or bulk bags of frozen produce.
At some point we will run out of consumer sized cans in stock because home size sales are up (40%+) and restaurant sales are almost nonexistent. Fresh produce out of U.S. season comes from Mexico (different climate). I’m talking sweet corn, green beans, peas, tomatoes, all veggies are seasonal in the USA. Fresh, out-of-season, row crops are imported. (There are exceptions, like hydroponic grown, but small amount of total).
Someone mentioned “time to raid all those bins of corn”. Those bins on the farm contain yellow corn, cattle feed and totally unfit for human consumption, now or at harvest.
Eggs? Same problem. Bakeries and restaurants of any size use Pullman egg cases, 30 dozen at a pop, 30 eggs to a flat, 12 flats to a case. There are only so many 1 dozen egg cartons available and only so many packing machines.
Industrial bakeries and processors of packaged food buy bulk liquid eggs, no carton at all. Also in many states it is illegal to sell this supply-chain directly to consumers.
On your standard buffet of any size, do you really think they boil eggs and peel them? They come in a bag, boiled and diced; those nice uniform slices of boiled egg you see on your salad, a lot of them come in tubes boiled and extruded at the same time, just unwrap and slice. Your scrambled eggs come in a homogenized bag on most buffets.
Another example of Main Street being gutted and “improved by wall street” NO local egg processors available or many small egg producers either, all corporate and huge, contracted to sell to the corporate masters.
This is a warning the same problems exist in all supply chains.
The supply chain is farked.”
~ David Osterloh, Dairy Farmer
Potato farmers and fresh food suppliers were also told to dump, blade or plough over their crops due to lack of commercial side demand. These issues have longer term consequences than many would understand. These are fresh crops, replenishment crops, which require time before harvest and production.
The retail consumer supply chain for manufactured and processed food products includes bulk storage to compensate for seasonality. As Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue noted in 2020, “There are over 800 commercial and public warehouses in the continental 48 states that store frozen products.”
Here is a snapshot of the food we had in storage at the end of February 2020: over 302 million pounds of frozen butter; 1.36 billion pounds of frozen cheese; 925 million pounds of frozen chicken; over 1 billion pounds of frozen fruit; nearly 2.04 billion pounds of frozen vegetables; 491 million pounds of frozen beef; and nearly 662 million pounds of frozen pork.
This bulk food storage is how the total U.S. consumer food supply ensures consistent availability even with weather impacts. As a nation, we essentially stay one harvest ahead of demand by storing it and smoothing out any peak/valley shortfalls. There are a total of 175,642 commercial facilities involved in this supply chain across the country
The stored food supply is the originating resource for food manufacturers who process the ingredients into a variety of branded food products and distribute to your local supermarket. That bulk stored food, and the subsequent supply chain, is entirely separate from the fresh food supply chain used by restaurants, hotels, cafeterias etc.
Look carefully at the graphic. See the fork in the supply chain that separates “food at home (40%)” from “food away from home (60%)”?
Food ‘outside the home’ includes restaurants, fast food locales, schools, corporate cafeterias, university lunchrooms, manufacturing cafeterias, hotels, food trucks, park and amusement food sellers and many more. Many of those venues are not thought about when people evaluate the overall U.S. food delivery system; however, this network was approximately 60 percent of all food consumption on a daily basis.
The ‘food away from home‘ sector has its own supply chain. Very few restaurants and venues (cited above) purchase food products from retail grocery outlets. As a result of the coronavirus mitigation effort, the ‘food away from home’ sector was reduced by 75% of daily food delivery operations. However, people still needed to eat. That meant retail food outlets, grocers, saw sales increases of 25 to 50 percent, depending on the area.
Covid regulations and lockdowns destroyed this complex supply chain in 2020.
It takes time to recover, because the replenishment is based on harvest cycles. This stuff must be grown.
When the food at home sector was forced to take on the majority of food delivery, they immediately hit processing constraints. The processing side of the supply chain to funnel food into suppliers for the grocery store has “x” amount of capacity. That system cannot (not feasible) / did not expand to meet the 20 to 50% increase in demand.
Think about potatoes. A potato farmer sells into one of the two paths “food at home” (retail stores, or a processing supplier) or “food away from home” (commercial food or commercial food processors). Other than bulk raw potatoes, the harvest goes into: (1) processing or (2) storage.
(1a) processing for retail sales (40%), ex. Ore Ida frozen potatoes, canning, or any of the other thousand retail products that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
(1b) processing for commercial sales (60%), ex. McDonalds french fries, or any of the thousand restaurant, lunchroom and cafeteria needs that use potatoes, whole or mashed.
♦ Processing – When 1b was shut down in 2020, 1a quickly reached maximum retail processing capacity. Massive multi-million machines and food processing systems have a capacity. The supplies they use also have a capacity: plastic bags, cardboard, trays, bowls, etc. The 1a processing system can only generate “X” amount of retail product at maximum capacity.
The remaining 1b commercial product was shut down. A massive percentage of 1b (commercial) potatoes have nowhere to go, except waste.
♦ Storage – Each processor in 1a stores product (deep cold or frozen storage) for 365-day processing and distribution. Those storage facilities have a limited amount of capacity. The 1b customers need fresh product for the majority of their outlets. Ergo, storing for 1b customers who might eventually be allowed to open later only works for a short period of time. The fresh potato sales missed by 1b outlets = the 1b discard by potato farmers.
When you restart 1b suddenly the 1b short term (fresh) storage product is quickly depleted. Refilling that 2020 storage is dependent on a new 2021 harvest, which simultaneously has a greater immediate demand because the supply chain on the processing side was boxcar’d (over capacity) and then reset to a higher capacity playing catchup.
The amount missing from 2021 storage, because it was used instead of saved, is essentially equal to the amount that was wasted in 2020.
Now you end 2021 with less reserves because storage is depleted, because a greater percentage of the current harvest was immediately used. You enter into the beginning of 2022 (winter) in a race to try and spread out the stored potatoes as you cross your fingers and race against the clock for the next harvest before running out.
You probably noticed – but attached to this issue is yet another motive to keep people (employees) away from large industrial cafeterias and even students from school lunchrooms. The total food supply chain needs time, and harvests, to catch up.
In the example above you can replace *potato* with just about any row crop or retail/commercial food commodity like milk.
The reason I list the shortage of potatoes as the #1 precursor is because every food outlet sells a potato in some form. Every supermarket and every single restaurant (fancy, sit down or fast food) sells some form of potato. Potatoes are demanded by every single food outlet; therefore, a shortage of potatoes is the first noticeable issue.
The 2020 demand disruption problem now becomes a 2021/2022 supply chain problem on both the fresh and processing side (depleted inventories), with each vector now competing for the same raw material: wheat, soybeans, grains, beans and stored row crops.
Making matters worse, the protein suppliers also need grain as feed for cattle, pigs, cows, chickens, etc.
[Note: who gets the short straw? The pet food manufacturers]
That’s the nub of the background supply chain issue in the food sector. Additionally, recovery is not a single-issue problem.
The recovery price and shortages relate to everything from current oil and gas prices to diesel engine oil prices, to fertilizer and weed killer costs, to plastic costs and petroleum packing shortages (Styrofoam especially), to cardboard and sustainable packaging costs, to energy costs and transportation/delivery costs. All along this complex supply chain there’s also workers and higher payroll costs.
Thus, we get the double-edged sword of higher prices (inflation) and simultaneous shortages.
Here’s what you can do to offset grocery store shortages (while possible):
(1) Buy the generic or store brand equivalent (sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(2) Purchase the organic version (another sub-set inside retail supply chain)
(3) Purchase the powered/dehydrated version (potatoes, milk, etc) and experiment (jazz it up).
Each retail operation, or chain of stores, will show varying degrees of the supply chain stress according to their size, purchasing power, and/or private manufacturing, transportation and distribution capacity.
This is where field to fork supplier relationships can make a big difference. However, every outlet regardless of their operational excellence, is going to have significant shortages in their inventory. It’s an unavoidable outcome of the previous chaos.
On average, the retail shortages will last for about as long as one full harvest schedule (4 to 6 months) depending on the commodity. By September of 2022, the various sector should be relatively recovered.
However, government intervention could make the issues worse, or the recovery time take longer, depending on how they respond when people get seriously stressed in a few weeks. The densely populated urban areas are going to be making a lot of noise and demanding the government fix the crisis.
Final note on INFLATION – The short term prices will go up again. Another 10, 20 up to 50% should be expected depending on the item. Those prices will eventually level off, but it’s doubtful they will be able to come back down until supply and demand find some equilibrium again, if ever. Right now, predicting future retail prices is too far off to even fathom.
I hope this outline provides you with information to help you make decisions for your family.
And just like that , a ready distraction waits in the wings ?
nasdaq.com
Exclusive – IMF , 10 countries simulate cyber attack on global financial system
Important to have cash at home.
unless hyperinflation. which IMO is inevitable
I’d rather have commodities like liquor or bullets. will hold their value like gold.
Damn skippy, MB
Outside of having a good stash of food for months, try to have cash, liquor and beer (distilling and brewing your own is good), bullets, silver, gold, etc. all at home. Not that it will “save you forever”, but these can buy you some time.
MB
My mantra for many years had always been:
Food and water for me and the pets.
Alcohol and tobacco for barter.
Lead and their companion for protecting the above.
Beans, booze, band aids and bullets, as the saying goes….
The “plan” is to go totally digital: vax passports and digital money, so they can track you at all times.
It’s like we are their herd of sheep.
The real problem is the idiots who harm the supply chain. Get rid of them and the root problem is solved.
I can only store a few weeks worth of food, fuel, etc. The Farmers aren’t the problem, nor the truckers, grocers, distributors, butchers, etc.
The true, real, actual, problem is that Idiots have been allowed to interfere in Liberty, Commerce and Economy.
Fuel is a problem, but because I have a freezer, garden and can, I have a decent stock of food.
Because of gas taxes in PA, we routinely have 4 -6 weeks normal driving stored. We could stretch it further.
Local Winco last night ( Richland Washington). fresh chicken case 98% empty. No iceberg lettuce. produce pretty sparse. Wet pet food about half stocked. Canned goods,(soups,tomato sauces) some empty spaces.
Go Bombers
I’m an rhs alum
RHS here as well!
Here in Columbia County Georgia, wife went to local Walmart on Saturday. No eggs, no frozen french fries. Kroger, Publix and Food Lion had both items a plenty.
For years Sam’s Club has always had canned cat food, but the last 6 months they have been out of it more than they have had it.
Check Chewy.com for canned cat food. And for all pet foods and nutraceuticals as well.
Not worried to much about canned cat food. Its just a weekly treat for my two cats. And to “I wont back down” and Martin. GO BOMBERS. Now about that other alumni. Jim Mattis. spit.
The canned cat food thing has been going on for a while, it is weird that is the one product that has pretty much disappeared and doesn’t seem to get replaced. I find it at the Wal-Nut website. Grocery store has been out since the beginning of Rona.
“An empty retail shelf or case for a 24, 36 to 48-hour period is not, I repeat, NOT, part of a systemic supply chain disruption. Those are mostly location and regional specific out of stock situations caused by localized events, weather and employee shortages.”
Kind of what I thought. My local organic market for example is out of several items the last few days because of the weather.
I’ve never found Sundance to be wrong and I have long thought his primary field was economics so this weekend I went to Walmart and Costco and a lot of money stocking up. We already had food saved but I added to it.
I read through the comments after the last few threads on the supply chain crisis, took notes on what people were suggesting and bought the items.
Here in Scottsdale, Arizona I didn’t see any empty shelves at all. The stores were well stocked.
I only noticed one other person who seemed to be buying a large amount of staple and nonperishable goods
From the very sparse information available about Sundance, he is a retired buyer for a grocery chain. Sundance knows the food supply system intimately.
Executive level. Also military experience at nco. Imho
Also.lots of experience with hurricanes
and chain saws
Isnt it amazing how God puts his people in the place and time where they are most needed. With just the right preparation he’s been giving them years before the need shows up?
Thank you Sundance .
Our God is faithful and he will not abandon us in our troubles.
Compliment Sundance but no doxing.
Pittsburgh, pa here. Stores seemed stocked okay. Some items low, lots of turkeys, no wet food for my cat (going to chewey for this), milk plentiful, meat outrageous, still holding strong. Glad I only have to buy for one, me. Bidens killin me smalls! Best of luck to all my friend in the treehouse, pray without ceasing, and more importantly, pray for our enemies that God will touch their heart so they ma pry find repentance and salvation through Jesus Christ.
Wishful thinking praying for your enemies when their sole intent is to smite thee.
We pray for our enemies so that we don’t become poisoned by the bitterness, hatred and violence.
Forgiveness liberates US!
Sometimes it spills over and saves their sorry souls.
But it is health to our bones if we obey God.
Speaking from experience
AMEN. True words spoken.
Heading back to Pittsburgh this weekend..Bonnie..check out your People’s Gas Bill..2.30 an Mcf to 4.81Mf..
I see a lot of empty shelves where I live, but no hoarding. The problems from what I have talked to people I know in the grocery industry regarding the supply chain is mostly trucks and drivers. That has changed from what they were telling me early on, when it was actually product availability. Product quality also seems to being impacted. Take chicken, the chicken parts here are large as turkey parts, and skin and bone with little meat. When I have asked the butchers for smaller pieces they tell me all the chicken coming in is like that. Leads me to believe these are not raised to be fryers, but probably were layers that are being substituted. I would guess different areas of the country are experiencing different shortages depending on regional production.
In Dallas it is hard to find Fritos. No regular ones at grocery stores, gas stations, or other retail locations. Plenty of Doritos, potato(e) chips, etc. Checkout clerks mentioned they haven’t had them in a while -maybe FritoLay is converting corn production from their hundreds of local plants to meet demand of 2 million more people in US wanting to buy tortillas?
I went to two different stores yesterday. My husband had asked me to pick up some Frito’s. Not one bag in site. I thought is was because of the holiday just passed, and that a delivery would be made in the next day or two. I will keep my eye out.
I’m in Lafayette (Louisiana) and have noticed over the last month and a bit that Fritos were not to be found anywhere in my area. And I do mean nowhere. Just before Christmas, one store in my area (Drug Emporium) got in a shipment. That was the only store that had any at all. I read somewhere that the company that manufactures Fritos had ceased production of them temporarily and was concentrating on a limited number of products that were deemed to be their most popular sellers. The hubs and I were pretty surprised to hear that Fritos weren’t in the most popular category. I imagine all of the other people I encountered haunting the snack aisles at numerous stores fruitlessly searching for a bag of Fritos probably felt the same way….and there were a lot of them.
Milk and milk related products are still available in my area but the prices have gone up. Meats as well. Couldn’t find Campbell’s original chicken noodle soup (the only one I buy with the exception of the occasional can of cream of mushroom) for over a month. When I finally found some, I bought all that was on the shelf…the store, Walmart, had received just one case (24 count). In all the stores I’ve been in, there are many empty sections on shelves that hold canned and boxed goods. Thankfully, I’m somewhat paranoid and have slowly been stocking up on things for quite a few months now. The hubs and I aren’t what you would call “well off” but there’s some extra in the budget so that we can buy ahead of need. I feel so bad for those that have no extra give in their monthly budgets to accommodate the increases in food, fuel and utility costs and are already stretching their dollars as far as they can.
I MISS FRESCA!!!!!
Heh, we’ve always had Fresca, but for months, I couldn’t get my diet Squirt. It’s magically back now. Greek yogurt has disapeared forever. Every week the grocery list has “if they have it” next to items, as they seem to come and go. Not empty shelves, just mysterious….missing items.
As for farmers, it’s all corporate here, as I thought it was everywhere…except for the Amish. We’re all going to go live with the Amish when the crash comes, and when we use them up, we’ll all go to DeSantis’s Florida.
A distributer told me it was lack of available corn. Also, noticed HEB is not as stocked as much with their store brand Fritos. Also, was told it is difficult to get some parts for processing machinery that has broken down as most of the parts come from China, so that causes shortages for the consumer too.
Oh No! No Fritos? Now I will have to go looking. I quit eating them, just too darn good. I had some over Christmas w/onion soup dip, so addicting.
I noticed those skinny chickens too! They put them out as cooked rotisserie, all skin and bones.
Although I usually buy parts, I noticed that there were no fresh oven roasters in the display case. No pork roasts either. I scored a small package of ground beef, which I used to make chili, and a bottom round pot roast.
I also saw different packing material in the beef roast, which was also cheaper than normal. It was packed in a different absorbent foam material.
In produce, the (out of season) strawberries and blueberries tasted like rubber. I used them for dessert with whipped cream and it wasn’t good at all.
The lettuce is wilted, the mixed salad bags are mushy and the organic produce, like carrots, is much cheaper than usual.
I’ve noticed that now instead of frozen chicken breasts, it’s frozen chicken pieces.
Thanks to Sundance, me and my dawg will be okay. Last stop: the liquor store to buy those little bottles for bartering or drink……..whichever comes first.
My sister in Orlando said Costco is well stocked but Publix has bare shelves. Why the difference?
The difference is obviously their respective supply chains, and customer base.
We have a few Costco stores around central Maryland, but the vast majority of people who I know do their weekly food shopping at the retail grocery stores and farm markets. Folks who I know say they go to Costco on occasion to buy large sizes of items that aren’t available in the grocery stores., and occasionally pickup other items that are on sale at the time of their visit.
Biggest reason is location / distance. Closest Costco to my village is 13 miles away on local 2 lane roads (no highways) and it is located in a relatively high crime area where parked automobiles are subject to breaking in and theft. However 4 major grocery stores are ~3 miles away on a 4 lane state road in a very safe area. It’s a no-brainer.
Publix, large as it is, does not have the negotiating power of Costco (or of Walmart).
My belief is that Cosco is membership only store similar to Sams Club and many folks donr want to pay the fee to shop. Publix is open to anyone and you’re not required to buy huge amounts of food.
Most local grocers in my area have adequate stock.
Many of those items have recently increased in price to the tune of 15 to 20 percent.
Prices have definitely increased.
Prices are up on hard goods, too. Example: Home Depot has sold a 36-pack of Energizer AA alkaline cells for $16.50 for the past two years. Now it costs $18.80.
Tractor Supply had them on sale for around 4.50$…I bought a pack to go with my horse paste.LOL
Heh, you, too?
And they have lots less juice!!
And packaging is smaller.
My larder is currently fully stocked.
But my most recent trip to a supermarket (Krogers) found it is lacking in Dole fresh foods like slaw cabbage and mixed salads, regular carrots, celery, pastas, soups (had plenty of a few varieties) meats, seafoods and poultry.
My latest purchases included dried split peas, lentils and beans for making slow cooker soups and chiles.
Here, in Utah there are many different stores to try to find what you’re looking for.
I check a different store each time I shop.
There has been a recall of packaged salads mostly Dole.
there was also a large recall of hamburger within the last few days in Oregon/WA
DOLE and a few other brands just had A MAJOR RECALL DUE TO LISTERIA!!! The stores SHOULD HAVE REMOVED IT.
Kroger Grocery Store chain — on 12/25/2021, “S2 Underground” reported that the Kroger Store chain has ‘started to remove health care benefits and is charging insurance fees for all their unjabbed employees as a way to target the unjabbed population’.
(I’m sorry not to provide the link, but a general search with the info provided will bring up the website. )
Having spent most of my life in Texas prior to Florida, I am becoming more and more disappointed in Kroger. It is by far one of the best grocery chains. But the fact that Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, is now on the Board of Directors for Kroger’s makes me sad and disappointed. Hearing this news about their benefits doesn’t surprise me after seeing their recent change in direction to becoming more liberal.
I have had a hard time finding celery too. I was making ham and bean soup on New Years and what I found looked almost limp but I used it anyway.
At least you can get away with the not-quite-crisp stuff for soup.
Celery seed is my back-up. I freeze celery and even though it thaws kinda soggy it still works for soup and casseroles. Limp celery is better than no celery. At times I have substituted a can of water chestnuts for celery when I want crunch in a dish.
Oregon here
*Today I received my 1/3 of the large family order of long range food (Patriot Foods) and that is safely stored away
*noticing lots of frozen turkeys in the big open freezer units in stores–like would ordinarily be there in November/December. Unusual for this time of year, I think…Sundance mentioned that would be happening.
*canned foods, staples, etc. have filled up every available spot in our various homes (including extras of iodized salt…don’t want to run out of that when it’s no longer being delivered to the stores)
*preparing to get into the details of planning a vegetable garden in an expanded way – of course, will have to deal with the reality of neighborhood thieves coming in the night to shop–one thing at a time–
*advance purchases made for things needed to maintain three vehicles
*LOTS of empty shelves and refrigerators at Walmart, Safeway, and Costco this week – I’ve been able to find what I’m looking for at one or the other place….but I’m only able to imagine what’s going to happen when it dawns on the general public that resupply is not happening in the stores…three years ago the freeways were shut down (north/south into CA) because of heavy snow. No truck traffic moved for about 5 days. What a complete mess! It became very obvious that very few people practice preparation of their own food…the refrigerated sections of prepared food went empty immediately-
At this point, everything on our list has been crossed off and I’m glad that I have no specific reason to have to go shopping any time soon. When the reality dawns on people, …. home is where I want to be.
You make a great point. Remember toilet paper? Once ‘everyone’ realises these aren’t just “none today, but it’ll be here tomorrow’ people will begin buying two, where they would have otherwise only bought one, because “there may not be any available for a long time, AND the price is ONLY going to go up”.
And this will totally banjack the AI systems, which are inadequate to adequately deal in sudden increases or decreases in demand; they haven’t ‘learned’ about that, because they have never encountered it before.
Toilet paper and eggs, awhile back encountered this problem, hence limiting customers to one package.
Speaking of eggs–yesterday in Safeway, 18 eggs/$5
Part of this is normal winter slow down. Flocks don’t lay as much and it’s a time of year they get culled.
Eggs keep and freeze. I stocked up and froze 10 dozen a couple of months ago when they were 30¢ a dozen and have kept an extra 4+ dozen in my shop fridge. We eat a lot of eggs when they are cheap. So I started this with 8-10 dozen ‘fresh’ in the fridge, plus those I had frozen.
Do you freeze eggs in the shells?
I just read another person say crack the egg and scramble it, then pour into a muffin tin and freeze. Once frozen empty your muffin tin into a freezer bag, and store in the freezer. He said they were good for a year in the freezer
No, you crack them first. You can spray an ice cube tray w/Pam, one egg per cube, freeze them and they pop right out to put in a baggie, or you can get snack size baggies and put the egg in that and freeze it. I prefer the ice tray method.
Hasn’t most everyone already been grabbing an extra if the stock in any one item looks low? I know I’ve been doing it since the toilet paper shortages. Seems most everyone I talk to has been doing the same.
Yes, and that itself disrupts the normal supply chain dynamics. Creating hysteria is part of the “Bad Guys” chaos plan. It keeps the People’s attention from them as a cause of anything.
Some certainly have been stocking up a bit. There is a YouTuber who says when you see something on sale buy 1 for now and 2 for later.
But not everyone has that mindset or income. Also a lot of those buying with ‘food stamps’ just buy what they want since often the amount of money they are getting is quite a bit. It is annoying when I’m buying pasta that is on sale for 2/$1 and they are putting a nice brand name in that’s $1.45 for likely the exact same thing.
Then again I was behind someone in a Discount/Salvage grocery and they were obviously being good stewards of what they had been given.
My non paying tenant is living rent free for 15 months..it took me 7 months and 2 court appearances to get the back ERAP…I creeped her BF’s FB yesterday and the kitchen is stocked with food , pictures of them eating steaks and crab legs..he’s not on the lease but the Judge said it’s OK for him to live there, it’s their house and they were to pay me NO money.I’m stuck with them until July..
Landlords are a ‘bank loan’ to their tenants, for which the tenants need to fill out zero application forms. Short of money? Don’t pay your rent. Instant loan. (Former landlord here.)
When it comes to toilet paper mania, the Libtard communist are quite adept at creating it.
If you plan to do any canning, you will want some non-iodized salt, canning salt, or Kosher salt. Iodized salt will turn your canned veggies strange colors over time. Yes, I did that once with green beans and didn’t realize it mattered. I threw those jars out (which really hurt after all the effort) so I can’t tell you if they were okay to eat.
Yes, I have a supply of the canning salt. Good point!
I haven’t canned for 12 months, or so. There are no Ball jar lids to be found anywhere!
Target had a large supply of both jars and lids last time I shopped there. (2 weeks ago) I went ahead and bought the large mouth jars and some extra lids because they were non existent last fall.
I actually did canning over the weekend. I’m very happy to have bought Tattlers (reusable lids & gaskets) a couple of years ago.
The price of lids is ridiculous. Many people are reusing them a couple of times if they aren’t bent and the sealing ring looks good.
Just ordered ten boxes of 12 lids (120 in all) from Target.com
Yes. I have a friend (middle aged single female) who does not cook from scratch…. she does carryout and very basic (frozen food or open up a can) cooking. She is always cash-strapped. Recently, she was sick with something flu-like and did not leave her apartment for several days…. I shopped for her because she was out of so many essentials: dog food, medicine, tissues, eggs, soup (pantry was bare), bread…. she is a good friend, and I have warned her in the past that stocking up would be wise, because of predicted supply chain shortages, and she has basically shut me down because she doesn’t want to hear the doom and gloom.
It’s very frustrating because this is a good friend. I would not want her to starve and would want to help. But on the other hand, it’s irritating because I know that she COULD prepare and refuses to listen to my warnings. I am not intending to prep beyond my own household’s needs because it’s financially difficult to do so. I would just love it if others would also step up and take responsibility. I dread what is coming.
Biden voter who will be relying on your responsibility in the coming days?
actually, no. But she is also not a Trumper. As I said, she is a good friend, but she is just not “political.” She does not want to know about the ugly side of life, and she is a very cheerful person. Sees the good in everyone, everywhere. Nice person to know and be around. But also a bit of magical thinking about there always will be abundance in the supermarkets…. she’s not going to be able to rely on me to support her. Trust me — I’d support a bunch of my very good friends, in a community where we all support each other, if that could possibly be. BUT — that’s not my reality. I live in a very blue city, I am able to “get by” but don’t have much extra, and no one I know of sees things the way we’ve learned to do here, with Sundance’s insights. I’ve tried — and failed — to get some important things across to the people I care about.
Where as in the past 2 years we’ve eaten out once. With the Wuhan Virus we were avoiding indoor spaces with a lot of people.
I understand being single and not wanting to cook all the time, but it’s not rocket science and eating out is expense!
The beauty of being single is when you make a batch of something like chili, stew or soup, it last for days and for the freezer, too.
Eating out sure eats the budget, people don’t like doing dishes and want the convenience of it. I have a single friend that eats out for almost every meal always w/drinks. I have tried to warn her as well, she won’t listen.
So all the empty shelves are the result of the ChiCom bio attack using C19 which we helped them develop, the miss handling of C19 by the CDC and Fauci, the unnecessary shutdown of the economy, the denial of therapeutics, ChiCom Joe threatening “vaccine” mandates and all of it has been self inflected by our own government! The massive fraudulent 2020 election giving us ChiCom Joe occupying the White House has made everything much, much worse! God help us! Hosanna!
Its nothing new; the whole “opiod crises” was ENTIRELY caused by FEDERAL govt. policy.
Medicare/Medicaid services established a new metric for compensating Drs and Hospitals, based on “pain management”.
Simplifying, they pay hospitals “X” amt. per Medicare/Medicaid patient, per day hospitalised.
Hospitals were to ask patients their “pain level” 4/day, using a 0-10 scale.
The info was, in aggragate sent to MM financial services, that cuts the check.
If, in aggragate a hospitals patients had pain at 0-2, the hospital got “X” +”Y”, if above 5, they got “X” -“Y”.
Similar for Drs handling patients after they were discharged.
This motivated hospitals and Drs to push pain killers, leading many to addiction.
Recall Rush became addicted.
THEN, the DEA told Drs they must drug test every patient they prescribed opiods to, and if they tested positive for any drug OTHER than what the Dr had prescribed, like marajiuana, they must cut them off, and so many then turned to street heroin.
Insane counterproductive policies, enacted and enforced by idiots,…
Or, all part if some master plan, you decide.
“Fentanyl: China’s Deadly Export to the United States … Mass quantities of fentanyl, a low-cost and highly potent synthetic drug, are being produced in China and brought illegally to the United States, contributing to a growing U.S. opioid crisis.” 2/1/2017<~ USCC(dot)gov.
****************************
Drug Overdose Deaths in the U.S. Top 100,000 Annually. For Immediate Release: November 17, 2021<~
“Provisional data from CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics indicate that there were an estimated 100,306 drug overdose deaths in the United States during 12-month period ending in April 2021 <~, an increase of 28.5% from the 78,056 deaths during the same period the year before.”
“The new data documents that estimated overdose deaths from opioids increased to 75,673 in the 12-month period ending in April 2021, up from 56,064 the year before. Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids (primarily fentanyl) and psychostimulants such as methamphetamine also increased in the 12-month period ending in April 2021. Cocaine deaths also increased, as did deaths from natural and semi-synthetic opioids (such as prescription pain medication).” CDC(dot)gov.
Think of this Dutch, it took Florida Legislature 14 years to close the “Pill Mill” loophole that gave millions of folks a taste for Doctor Dope. It took the Legislature 16 months to craft a bill to outlaw synthetic marijuana (K2, Spice). Little M.I.A Marco, co sponsored and passed a bill with some liberal jackass whose name escapes me to protect the DEA and large distributors of pain meds like Cardinal Distribution from prosecution as they were supposed to be the “check and balance” to stop any suspicious (large) orders. Oddly enough, I learned of this bill from 60 Minutes about 4 years ago. Almost like clockwork in 2011, when the Pill Mills were being raided around Orlando, 5-7$ dollar baggies of “China White” heroin cut with fentanyl started appearing everywhere from the richest to the poorest neighborhoods in the Orlando Metro.
I think it’s a master plan, but not of man – insane idiots carrying it out. Evil can work all kinds of mischief with morons, the greedy, and the childish.
A while ago, just as all kinds of crazy things happening, rioting, election, etc., I asked the Lord what the heck was happening and when was would the craziness going to end. The answer I got was a thought, “evil has no lack of evil plans”.
Mid-Wisconsin 60,000+city with 5 national grocery chains plus a food coop and food carried by gas stations and building supply stores.
Grocery store shelves are mostly stocked, but the supermarkets are changing the shelf space allocation:
the baked goods aisle with crackers and cookies is now much smaller than it used to be. Fewer brands offered. Saltine crackers seem to be often out.
National products carried before are no longer available at chains where the had been.
Oranges are in short supply and have been for a long time.
Cheese, dairy, eggs, potatoes, apples, beer, liquor, sausages, all plentiful, much made/grown in Wisconsin.
Meat plentiful, much processed in Wisconsin.
For some reason almond windmill cookies have disappeared (extract shortage??)
Paper goods stocked but often low. Paper goods also made in Wisconsin.
Prices are much higher.
Gasoline prices higher, but lower compared to much of USA. Gasoline is refined in Mid-west from USA oil.
Labor shortage continues especially in retail/ cashiers/ fast food/ restaurants.
The grocery stores are adapting by trying to keep their shelves more fully stocked with what is available.
Much the same here.
My brother in law manages a huge grocery store. He says they’re under orders to avoid empty shelves. So when they run out of an item, they are to fill the space with whatever they’ve got. I’m certain that my local BJs is doing the same thing. It can make shopping a frustrating experience as you never know where you may find an item.
This explains the sudden grocery shelf reset at our local Ingles (a western NC-based midsize grocery chain).
I do a side gig shopping at a Whole Foods Market, to offset reduced income due to the initial lock downs. Over the last month the shelves are slowly seeing less and less. Not completely out of stock, but fewer of each item
from my usual shopping list…
frozen yogurt dessert bars of most flavors and large canister planters mixed nuts and cashews have disappeared from Meijer stores in W. Michigan for several weeks now. Nature Valley biscuits etc. getting real thin for weeks.
I help some seniors shop… so i know this is not just one store.
EYES WIDE OPEN.
You can buy nuts at sprouts in bulk. They were recently $5 for a 1.275 lb bag. Hopefully they still have them tomorrow. Our store deli carried biscuits and gravy for breakfast. They haven’t had biscuits for about three weeks. The refrigerated biscuit section is low and small prepared 6 oz biscuit mix is non existent. They did however have a new brand of 6 oz cornbread mix that was 2 for a $1.00. I like using smaller size packaging as there is less waste rather than opening a large box. Easier to store. Store brand butter on sale for $2.99 and there was Lucerne block cream cheese, no whipped packages. Cambell’s soup section down to half its size, no cream soups. Few bags of large dogfood, or for that matter most, section is sparse. Cat food look low also. No bagged fresh salads. Most dog food has jumped in price. Ramen section empty, guess people will learn 101 ways to use Ramen. Halo’s $8.99 a bag, up from $5.00 at Christmas.
There is a recall on Dole packaged salads.
Sundance,
I did not have any difficulty clearly understanding your previous posts, or the difference between the empty shelves we have been seeing,, and whats coming.
Thru JIT and integrated supply chains which are Global, it has become a very complex process with many integrated parts,. .like a swiss watch.
Take out one little, tiny gear, and the whole watch stops working.
JIT, Just In Time systems have always had a potential vulnerability; they traded the durability of reduncy, for the efficiency of integrated, AI controlled system ‘efficiency’.
It IS more efficient, and therefore more economical, so long as it ticks along, like a Swiss watch.
But, one hole in the system, and the whole thing is buggered, at least until the hole is fixed.
And, what we have is not one hole, but 6 and each hole causes other holes, and a cascading collapse if the system.
Just in Time, becomes never at any price.
As if that weren’t enough, the system is automated thru AI, Artificial Stupidity, mirroring the intellectual midgets who set it up. AI ‘learns by doing’ which means that as its running a system thats running fairly smoothly, with slight ups and downs in supply of raw materials and of demand, it learns to adjust “things” always striving to constantly keep product moving, according to its JIT prime directive algorythm.
It has NO experience with addressing MAJOR disruptions, or sudden changes in demand, or major shortages of ingredients or components.
If a car manufacturere can’t get computers, it can’t make cars.
If Cambells soup can’t get carrots, many of its product line, it can’t produce.
Even a shortage of packaging, a component vital to the finished product, shuts down the line….but meanwhile the other conponents keep funneling in to the bottle neck, building up behind, even as things downstream empty out.
Like a river with a narrow passage that gets blocked with debris.
Its not simply a matter of replacing the missing component once available, (unplugging the passage) and reestablishing the flow in short order.
The system was never designed to handle this, it was designed for CONSTANT FLO, there is no space to accomodate the backed up materials.
This is going to be a cascading collapse, a problems in one area, creates 6 other problems, which each create 6 other problems, and so now one problem, which have been managed, becomes 36 which are unmanageable.
Its 3 mile island, and probably the only thing to do is, like Jurrasic park, shut the whole thing down, reboot and “hold on to your butts” as no one really knows what will happen, or how to unsnarl a massive traffic jam of global purportions.
6months is frankly very optimistic. It took almost that long, just to get the toilet paper supply chain back to something approaching normal.
We’re talking about something MUCH larger and more widespread.
Could be YEARS, if ever.
Its like if the power grid ever was truly “knocked out” by EMP. HOW would you get it back up?
When their is a region that loses power, crews from other regions come in to help restore power, but if the whole country loses power?
And how are they going to fuel their trucks, with no power to the gas stations, etc.
Cascading collapse, where problem compounds on top of problem.
“…crews from other regions come in to help restore power,…”
After the ten day power outage last winter from a massive ice storm, PG & E made plainspoken announcements as we headed into summer that any oncoming issues needing repair would likely taken longer than normal to repair because they had lost so many employees, and were finding it difficult to promise normal maintenance on the lines.
Cascading collapse indeed…………
Our city recently went with Ercot , after all of the power outages last winter, windmills frozen, no power during freezing ice and snowstorms and they choose this company who had not ONE board member living in the state. Electricity was down over large swaths of the state for some time. We did well at the time because our energy was provided by NM, afraid the next major storms will leave us in a bad place. Guess it all comes to follow the money. Been looking for a decent generator.
Propane and/or dual fuel (gas + propane). The propane stores almost indefinitely, if no leaks.
Your cars are rolling gas storage facilities.
Thought propane would not be allowed in city limits. Drove by a junk store last week and they had a new small pot belly cast iron heat/cook stove out front with the chimney pipes. Sign said $200 Was running an errand and went back and it was gone! 20 minutes! We do keep our trucks and suv’s full. Always topping them off.
This is exactly what I’m thinking. It’s extremely overwhelming and none of us can possibly purchase everything we are accustomed to having at our fingertips. I sincerely believe this will be worse than the Great Depression.
A lot more violent, for sure. Urban savages – a group that did not exist in our nation in 1930 – will roam far afield in search of sustenance and negotiable items.
I agree, it will be far more violent. They will steal the hair off a dogs back.
Likely worse for some who are used to having pre-made everything. I didn’t notice any shortage of potato products…. because I buy 50 pound bags from a farmers market and make everything from scratch.
How do you store 50lbs of potatoes? I grew up on potatoes almost every night, I don’t buy them often but decided to get a couple of 5# bags. Now I’m hoping to store them so they don’t spoil. I do use them in soup, and I’ll eat an occasional baked potato, but for just me and my husband 10# is quite a lot to have on hand at one time.
From what I’ve been told, people were more open to strangers during the Great Depression. Many stories exist of beggars at the back door being fed from whatever the family had.
I don’t see that happening much during the next depression. Too much violence, too much fear, too many crooks and scammers, and less connection with others outside one’s own tribe. Where I live near the southern border, people are even more wary of strangers.
I believe they were. Times were hard for everyone and I do believe their was more respect back then. My father was born in 1921, my mother in 1930. I grew up with the “hard luck” stories, now it appears I may have to try and remember all the things they told me. The difference this go around is that most people do not live on their own land in rural areas where their Grandparents, Aunts, Uncles and Cousins are a unit. We are completely disconnected. I’m lucky, I have like minded neighbors but I’m scared because I’m way to close to Nashville. A big city that is starving is a frightening prospect.
Yup TP took about 6 months to come back in regular stock.
It took another year for it to have real sales. Luckily we had enough ;).
I managed to find everything on my list at Winco in Salem, Oregon. A lot more people not wearing masks.
I saw a couple not wearing masks in OR Walmart today–and he was wearing a shirt that said MY RIGHTS DON’T END WHERE YOUR FEELINGS START. I had to chuckle and just said to him in passing, “Hey! I like your shirt!” His wife was walking a few steps in front of him, immediately looked shocked, and said with a laugh, as she turned around to double check, “Which one is it??” Funny. Apparently he has a collection and perhaps pushes a few buttons here and there! Funny.
l live near Exton PA (25 mi west of Philthy PA)) I haven’t noticed any glaring shortages. I shop around with many choices> Walmart, Costco, Giant Whole Foods, Acme (Albertsons) and my go to Shoprite. Every Tuesday SR has what I call “Blue hair day”. I know this is ageism at its worst but, All purchases made are at 5% discount if over 65! I’ll be 70 next month so dilligaf? Progresso soups/$1 a can, Bumblebee solid white albacore in water/10 for $8.90 and other bargains are ready for picking. I did see elsewhere on the web that tires may soon be limited supply items so I had new sneakers put on my pickup. It was due. If it matters, I have Freedom Blood!
I haven’t been able to buy bone in chicken breasts for several months now. There has also been an ongoing shortage in lunch size paper plates. Before Christmas I couldn’t get the cans of pillsbury cinnamon rolls. The shortages are definitely here in Philadelphia but the stores don’t want to have empty shelves. If the shortage is not in a product you normally buy it’s likely you just wouldn’t notice.
Aldi FL has been out of paper plates for a couple of months
Me to! Don’t forget Aldi (Exton is the cheapest one around). Likely have seen you at SR.
Another manufactured crisis, waiting to be “solved” through more government intervention.
If we can get by without the not-vax, we can get by without frozen potatoes.
IMO, there will be fewer people going to restaurants because of higher prices for restaurant meals. There will be less demand for restaurant food supplies. The restaurant/home ratio could go from 60/40 to 40/60.
Overall, it could be healthier for people eating at home instead of “Fast Food” establishments. It still gets down to supply and the transportation necessary for delivery.
This is where politics enters the picture. It gets down to mandatory vax or not mandatory vax. It is the final decision outcome which will tells the story.
However, it may not be the final solution. The “Bad Guys” want chaos it is from the chaos the “Bad Guys” see final control of the People.
The restaurant portion also includes school breakfasts and lunches, college cafeterias, and government and corporate lunchrooms. Will the Department of Agriculture will have to prioritize school meals which might affect food availability for home?
Wonder how many of the restaurants which managed to stay open in 2020 and 2021 will wind up closing its’ doors now? The restaurants just can’t catch a break.
Indianapolis Metro area — mostly an Aldi’s / Costco shopper. Aldi’s wiped out of canned fruits. Limits set on most canned goods of 4 to 6 cans, so no splurge shopping. Aldi’s, at least, doesn’t appear to be price gouging.
CVS drug stores… repeated incidents of trucks not delivering inventory for weeks on end. With two stores less than 4 miles apart from each other, stark difference in shelf stock. One is abysmal, while the other seems to be keeping its head above water, but DON’T DEAL with the Pharmacists if you can help it! They are practically manic and probably the closest I’ve ever seen to losing their minds. Medications, OTC’s, in short supply and prices high, high, high… especially for “therapeutics” that can alleviate some of the C-symptoms. Plunked down almost $60 for a 100 ct Mucinex DM 12 Hr.
Meijer – Organic milk sky high pricing and the one by me has plenty of produce, however shelf stable items look about 25% bare. Really weird and reminds me of going into international markets at how things are randomly arranged and shelves are faced, not near the neat marketing endcaps popular with merchandisers, more like a Wal-Mart after a Black Friday beating.
Costco feels like you’re walking into the “Hunger Games”. People have that wily look in their eyes and every one is MASKED!!! Except me and you’d think I had the plague with the looks. Again, prices don’t seem to have increased much with Costco and they had All dye free / fragrance free clothing detergent on sale for $4 off, taking it down to about $11 for the large container. I don’t purchase a lot of meat there, so I can’t reasonably comment on that.
Wet cat food has been horrible for going on two months now. We feed the Science Diet and I even went so far as to switch to a different type this week because prices shot sky high and orders are constantly getting canceled. Purchased ahead litter, dry feed, and more wet food. Going to be rough with the latter, as we have some high maintenance fur-children with few teeth and elder in age. Already one seems to be ill and gaunt, so I am seriously questioning quality of what’s in the Science Diet.
I’ve been gradually building my shelf staples and am thinking of grocery alternatives — farmers / alternate sources. Couldn’t really afford to, but we overpurchased and put it on credit… while we could source things. I’ve still got a no-interest card handy, so it’s taken a run around the block.
Today, went to the gun store. Ammo was in short supply up until recently and they were using a 9MM from Turkey that the clerk told me had issues with instability and flaming out the gun. I didn’t experience that in my range practice. (Thank God!) I purchased ammo today and he alluded that he thought the supply issues were correcting themselves, but encouraged me to buy ahead target ammo in addition to standard hollow points. We adopted two G-19’s today. One for home, one for the car.
Indy has become Detroit 2.0 and our liberal Mayor is MIA. Not a damn peep about the increased crime, or anything, for that matter. Must be on vacation in Florida with AOC. Everything just looks so worn down and the roads are hideous. So much for that surplus.
At this point, we can only wait and PRAY…
JWoo is anyone going to primary Greg Pence in Indiana?
In SE Louisiana I haven’t noticed shortages of anything EXCEPT canned cat food. My 15 yr.old cat is extremely picky,
so I am starting to hoard the one type of food she likes…Purina Pro Plan. So far, no problems getting the dry food,
but the cans of cat food have been getting more and more scarce.
I’m in down-state IL. Per the outline above provided by Sundance, our stores here have been in this phase since mid-October. Local stores: Walmart Grocery, Schnucks, Meijer, County Market, Aldi, Hy-Vee, Save-a-Lot, Sam’s Club, and Dollar General.
Items not available at any of the stores above: tomato sauce (store brand, nor name brand), tomato paste (store brand, nor name brand), soup (name brand), saltine crackers (store brand, nor name brand), jelly (name brand), peanut butter (name brand), Miracle Whip, Ketchup (store brand, nor name brand), Soda (name brand), bottled water (Nestle pure life, it’s all we buy and no one has ANY), toilet paper (very low stock in store brand, name brand unavailable), paper towels (very low stock in store brand, name brand unavailable), kleenex (store brand, nor name brand), garbage bags (store brand, nor name brand), sandwich bags (store brand, nor name brand), cookies (store brand, nor name brand), canned tuna fish (store brand, nor name brand)
[b]Meat prices[/b]
Chicken at Aldi’s is still $1.99 per lb. Chicken prices at the other stores mentioned above have gone up by at least 30% or more. Organic chicken is around the same price as, and in some cases, cheaper than, conventional chicken at all of the above mentioned stores. Meat cases are about 40% full no matter what day you go or what time you go.
Pork is expensive at all of the stores and there’s not much available to select from.
Ground beef (80/20) ranges between $3.75 per lb to $9.00 per lb (not organic) depending on where you buy it. The store I normally buy it from has for the last several years charged $2.89 per lb and now it’s $6.50 per lb. I no longer buy it there and now purchase it from Aldi where I can buy it for $3.85 per lb. Availability is spotty.
Stew meat (100% angus beef) used to be available for less than $6.00 for 1.05 lbs and now it’s $18.00 for 1.05 lbs, when you can even find it. I refuse to pay that much for stew meat!
[b]Vegetables[/b]
Potatoes are not available at most of the stores. The ones that do have them (and not very many available at that) are either rotten inside the bag, or the bag smells foul and is oozing liquids, or they’re from outside the country (Mexico, Canada). Prices on potatoes (when you can find them, and they’re not rotten) have gone from $3.85 for a 10 lb bag to $8.00 for a 10 lb bag. The rotten potatoes can be purchased for $2.82 per 5 lb bag.
Scallions (long green onions), tomatoes, peppers, and lettuce are scarce and have been for months. Prices on all of the aforementioned vegetables have risen about 20-30% over the past year.
[b]Dairy[/b]
Milk is available and the price is between $4 to $6 per gallon. If you buy chocolate milk, it’s more – almost $8 per gallon. Salted butter quarters are available in some of our stores while others have been out for several months. Price is between $4 and $8 per carton of butter (4 sticks). Sour cream is $2 for store brand $5 for name brand. Yogurt (both store brand and name brand) is widely available and not very expensive, usually around $0.79 per 6 oz container.
[b]Frozen Items[/b]
French fries, hash browns, and tater tots are unavailable at quite a few of our stores and this has been the case for months now. You can sometimes find them at Aldi’s but not very often.
Frozen vegetables (peas, carrots, broccoli, cauliflower) are not widely available either. Aldi has been out for months, so has Walmart. You can find some at the other stores but they’re very expensive now. The price has nearly doubled what it used to be.
Oh, and I should add that the shortages on our local shelves isn’t due to weather. We haven’t had any snow yet but we’ve had lots of rain and have had sub-zero temps during the wee hours of the morning (when stores are closed for the night).
I am so sorry for your situation. It sounds like it will be all of our situations soon. I’m originally from southern Illinois. I know how rough the politicians in that state treat those below Springfield. God bless, and a I hope your farmers are still producing. You are giving us all a look into our near future.
Question for you Sundance, or anyone who cares to guess – do you think this will be world wide? We left the US last June and were super happy. Our stores are thankfully so stocked. They are overflowing, actually.
I’m just wondering if these issues will be limited to the US.
In the US I think it depends on trucker vaccine mandates as well truck environmental rules which could require trucks taken off the roads.
Yes.
Puget Sound, WA, still recovering from a “Christmas storm” that affected grocery shelves?
https://www.facebook.com/112779115408517/posts/5342528265766883/?sfnsn=mo
Well, that “Christmas storm” started in November. That’s when I first noticed empty potato pallets in local grocery stores (40 miles north of Seattle). Spuds have now been restocked – and are in such poor shape they’re not worth buying.
I’ll say it, never underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to “jack” things up.
Don’t Americans need to be poorer so Xioe can be richer? Democommunists believe there’s only one pie.
Besides, we’re easier to handle that way. Maslow’s pyramid-thingy.
I remember when Hugo Chavez destroyed generations-old dairy farms in Venezuela by forcing price controls on them…a great loss for that country.
Gratefully aware of the looming situation thanks to Sundance’s enlightening information.
That’s the good part.
Sadly, the scamdemic ruined my career and income months ago. No money to stock up and prepare, no extra freezer to store frozen goods anyway.
That’s the soberingly bad part.
At least I don’t have to worry about getting fat this year. 😳
What skills do you have that you can barter with? We all likely have something that another cannot do. Well, except politicians and academics…
Can you buy seeds? You can find them at Dollar Tree 4/$1 for easy to grow items like tomatoes, squash, cucumbers, peas, beans etc…. You can turn a few dollars into fresh food this spring/summer/fall.
On a happy note… I look forward to the vaxxed zombie cannibals eating D.C. politicians and their staffs. Then they can start on all the alphabet agency’s located there.
My wife and I are pretty well stocked up. No more fine dining and trips to get a midnight snack (In-N-Outburger, or Pepe’s Mexican food) are on hold. But, I will admit I do have a weird craving for Hot-Cheetos. So today I drove to five, 7Elevens and 2 markets, 3 liquor stores to find my Hot Cheetos. Nobody had them in stock, except for one store one town over. I made a small complaint to the owner about no one in town having Hot Cheetos. He said said he understood and that he had to drive to the frito-lay processing plan one county over to buy his supply of chips for his store. Apparently they can’t find people to work and deliver chips. To me this is like swell that is brewing. First you get the ankle slappers, which will eventually turn into double-overhead waves that crush everything in its path.
Maybe you missed the story of the Cheetos shortage that was so important that USA Today ran a fact check on it. Yeah, me too.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17031013/are-flamin-hot-cheetos-discontinued/
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/12/29/fact-check-frito-lay-not-discontinuing-flamin-hot-cheetos/8986194002/
So simple and so clever and effective.
Buy tires, now!!
But I can’t find a car to put them on.
I won’t back down is buying a car Johnny Cash style.
Hey Peoria, steal one! 😎
I think you are right. Been holding off on buying a set of Michelin for my truck.
I put about 20 to 30 thousand miles per year on my truck traveling to see ranching clients .
I usually get about 100k (or more) out of a set of Michilens versus 60k out of Goodyear.
My mechanic suggested I go ahead and get new back brakes because for a while they couldn’t get them. He called today to say he found some. Not an expense I want right now, but brakes are an important feature on a car. Someone on this site suggested buying oil and filters which I am going to do as well. My mechanic said they hadn’t had a problem getting oil or filters, but also agreed to have some extra on hand isn’t going to hurt.
I do not believe it will stop at food either. All of our medications come from overseas, there are shortages of some tire sizes, paper products include oil filters, A/C filters, everything is packaged in blow molded plastic. Plastic comes from petroleum, you name it, they’ve PURPOSELY screwed up the system! Everyone should read “One Second After”, a real eye opener.
Yes, a good point and one I have already considered. I’ll do without so when my current supply gets low, I will go from one pill a day to one every other day….and so on. When they all run out, well then, maybe I can live without them anyway.
I am dependent upon two specific inhalers for fourth stage COPD. I cannot imagine what would happen without them.
For those who have not read it, the book is fictional and written to illustrate what would happen after an EMP.
But, perhaps more to the point for this thread, it lays out a pretty realistic and stark picture of what happens to a community when everything stops. No more trucks, no more deliveries, no more fuel – and how fast most households would be out of EVERYTHING without their regular trips to the market, pharmacy, gas station and such. Very sobering book that would prompt even a skeptic to keep some non-perishables in the pantry (if nothing else).
Sundance i hope you truly understand how much we appreciate all the time and effort you put in to informing us helping us to be prepared . somehow saying thank you just seems to fall short of the gratitude we feel i truly hope you feel that . so for what it’s worth THANK YOU R.D.
Thank you for the distinction, Sundance. Most people just don’t get how this works.
No need to hoard, but stocking up on the things you may personally need and rely upon is advised. The things you normally buy will be more expensive later, and some may be hard to find. Be prepared.
Empty dairy, veggie, meat and other normal stuff last week because of rare western Washington snowstorm. Tonight the shelves are stocked but chicken is up approximately 100% from pre-Biden prices: $7.99 per pound for chicken thighs. The ordinary semi-premium cuts of steak (NY strip, T-bone, etc.) are all over $20/lb (also up approximately 100% from Trump-era prices). Thanks to a-holebama and his stuffed monkey.
I used to be able to schedule a grocery delivery for the next day (or for the same day, if I scheduled early enough in the day). Not recently. On Monday, I requested a grocery delivery, and the earliest delivery slot they had open was the following Friday.
I don’t know if that was because of increased demand for delivery, or because delivery drivers were out with Omicron, or because of fewer delivery drivers because of vaccine requirements, or what.
Here in Oslo I have noticed two products missing from the stores since several weeks before christmas: my favourite foreign beer Newcastle Brown Ale and pistachio nuts. In the first case the staff blames the rising price of aluminium , but Tuborg and Heiniken etc in boxes are still in sale, for the nuts they have no explanation, they are mostly grown in California and Iran.
I can certainly live with this but enjoy the combination so mutch that I have looked around and there seems to be none found in my town at all…and yes: fish soup in portions ready to warm, they are almost completely gone.
The price of foodstuffs in general and also electricity have really increased very mutch lately, not just in Norway but all over Europe.
…and in Norway we have been kind of spoiled with cheap electricity for generations, then our politicians thought it wise to lay subsea cables to Denmark and Germany etc, these started working a few months ago and the result are that our prices rise and approach the prices of the EU.
This is stirring a lot of complaints here but we had national elections last september and basically those we foolishly votet for can do as they like until 2025.
My lineage came to America from Norway in the late 1800’s, (Overos).
I must say that the shortages we may face in the near term will be nothing compared to the hardships felt by those of that period!
Which part of Oslo? More years ago than I’d like to say I spent a year as a student at the University of Oslo and lived in Kjelsas. I loved Norway and have revisited many times over the years.
We have family in California that farm fruits and nuts in the San Joaquin Valley, almonds, clementine oranges – on way to Gilroy you go through the pistachio farms & processors – loved to buy 5# bags of various flavored pistachios fresh from cooking.
There have been no recent issues with the growers, other than CA and US govt diverting more Ag water to go out the river to help the non-indigenous Delta smelt. Almost all farms now have to have dedicated water sources now to keep from turning back to desert.
I noticed the price on aluminum foil rose sharply months ago…crazy high.
Aldi US is out of salted peanuts
Hello Norwegian Troll! My wife and I loved our vacation in southern Norway 22 years ago. We visited in the summer of ’00. Spent several days in Oslo (loved the floating restaurant bar down at the harbor and the walking mall)., then Stavanger, then Bergen, then Balestrand, then Flåm, and back to Oslo.
If we can find a way to connect w/out the whole world viewing I could send you a few bags of Pistachios. I saw some the other day, happy to check to see if they are still there for you.
Fear not everyone, the Lord is guiding all of this. Everything is in His hands. Peace he leaves us, his peace he gives us. Trust completely in the Lord. He knows what we need. He will provide. Pray. And then pray again.
Thank you Bonny for your beautiful encouraging post.
God bless us everyone.
From ‘a dairy farmer helps to explain’:
Furthermore, it is not legal for this end of the supply chain to sell direct to consumers in most states.
Why is it not legal? Why can’t it be changed / waived temporarily? 🤔
A 2.5 gallon bag of restaurant milk isn’t really that much for a family.
Why do people have to buy eggs in a container?
People have containers at home.
same is true for beef industry. a relaxing of regs would put more beef available .
I can buy from local farmers, but I can not buy fresh. They can only sell it direct to consumers frozen. So they send it out to a specialized slaughterhouse that slaughters and freezes it.
I save egg containers and give them to a food bank. I buy flats on occasion. Also while I prefer larges, I will buy mediums or extra large/jumbo if the price is right.
I hate waste and like reuse so I’ve always saved things like egg cartons.
I plant single seeds in egg cartons
One of the primary reasons is packaging and not the size and type. Commercial packaging does not have the Nutrition Facts and other required information. It may have the info but be the wrong size print or color to match regulations. It is not illegal to sell the stuff it is illegal to sell the stuff in the packaging it is in. Except for fresh food, once it is in the package and sealed, it can only be opened by the final consumer. It can not be opened and repackaged as it is likely illegal to do so. Not unsafe or unhealthy. Illegal. And it does not matter that half the country is starving, the regulators will shut you down if you try to break their system.
It doesn’t matter to me what we call the current issues. The fact is, they are here and were ultimately caused by China and their release of the virus and then compounded by leftist policies that have driven inflation, etc.
So ultimately, take care of yourself and your family. Plan and sustain for it will be a long, hard Winter.
Given all we know about the UNIPARTY sleeping with China, how can it all be China’s fault? Nope, they are working hand in hand to destroy America.
Metrowest MA area –
shortage on frozen potatoes for a good month or more
chicken is sporadically short – can’t always get exactly what I want,
fresh produce – different packaged lettuce and salads out sporadically, have to buy different brands
potatoes – usually huge mound in produce section, noticeably smaller now
lunchmeats – prepackaged brands like Oscar Mayer and Hillshire harder to find – easier to get store brand
cream cheese – had to go to 3 stores to find some yesterday, ended up with store brand, bought 2 since so hard to find
wet cat food – stores shelves are very sparse wherever I look, good thing our cats eat dry food, but I’m buying and storing it
general observation – lots of sparse shelves with just a few items pulled to the front, unsure if due to Friday snowstorm
Since I hit 3 stores yesterday, I heard lots of consternation from various shoppers as they realized they couldn’t find what they wanted. Also overheard a manager saying to pull stock forward so the shelves wouldn’t look bare and spread out stock of one brand if another one is out to make shelves look full.
“Also overheard a manager saying to pull stock forward so the shelves wouldn’t look bare and spread out stock of one brand if another one is out to make shelves look full.”
My husband noticed this last night at the BJ’s in Dedham.
Pay no attention to the impending hyperinflation and famine! Look at this horrible conspiracy to overthrow the government and make Donald Trump dictator! That and getting jabs numbers 4 through 7, from which many will die and which will now begin to kill the children, is what we really need to be upset about!
I don’t disagree, but you can’t fight on an empty belly. If we’re prepared and unvaxxed, it means the Liberals die.
Dont forget to make sure all your provisions are safe from insects and rodents.
sprinkle/dust a very fine layer of diatomaceous earth all around your stored goods — it can even be put into bags of beans that you will later wash — this kills any insects.
Just north of Houston TX we are starting to see major shortages at the local big grocery store. Doritos (for a favorite chicken recipe) are non existent, my morning coffee drink in a can is sparse. Meat is already gone from sam’s club but still some at HEB. Frozen potatoes were sparse, I found my kids favorite fries though. Soda is still well stocked. Cheese seemed ok as well. Some items are already hard to find, others with longer storage life were still available. We have prepared as best we can. Now it’s just a matter of changing how we consume and thinking about further changes as shortages play out. We are not wealthy we live almost from check to check with my steady (so far) job of 10+ years. Even engine oil was short when I went to change my oil a few weeks ago. Guy at the auto store said there was no rotella T3 (for diesel engines) and that everyone was just using the house brand for gasoline engines. I thought how the heck does the koof affect engine oil production, ah large corp with time off and layoffs over personal health choices.
Sometimes when something is unavailable, like Doritos, there’s a homemade substitute: https://www.momentswithmandi.com/homemade-doritos-style-chips/
If you can’t get corn tortillas you can make them with instant masa, cheap and easiest if you use a tortilla press, cut off the zip part of a gallon zip lock bag, slice open 2 sides but leave bottom uncut, keeps prepared masa from sticking to press. No press, no problem, just roll balls of prepared masa between plastic with a rolling pin or smooth bottle or press it out with a flat bottom heavy pan. Then a quick toast in a dry skillet. Check online for a video.
When times are tough making a favorite recipe can be a great comfort.
In NE PA cream cheese is on limited supply, can’t find saltines or oyster crackers very easily, egg noodles and other pastas had disappeared from the shelves or had onesies/twosies, meat prices have skyrocketed and I’m seeing more of that fake meat crap in it’s place. Liquid milk products are spotty. Might be time to buy local or start our own gardens. The noose is tightening I fear.
After church last night, we did our usual. We had to run by the store for some little thing. While there, we cruised the aisles and picked up available things we do not need right now but are shelf stable and will need eventually. It is what we have been doing for a couple of months, so we are getting stocked. Last night, they had wet cat food, ground turkey that we like and have used for years, some canned items, all on sale. While my wife was shopping, I went next door and grabbed a box of 40 S&W to add to my stash.
The corrugated companies are getting hammered across the country. Every day is a challenge deciding who is getting boxes and who isn’t based on availability of paper from the mills.
Don’t forget to stock up on any medications/vitamins you may take. Many of these are made overseas and supply chain issues could limit availability.
In north central Florida the only long term shortage I have seen is the frozen potatoes, and it is across brands not just Ore-Ida. I have not noticed any other shortages other than Molly McButter which my wife uses and we have not seen that for months now. Living in the south where most of the products are produced and packaged probably helps.
SW CO
My foodservice provider is mostly in the same condition as I posted before:
Sun / Wed order days for next day delivery.
Zero Bacon that I use NO ETA I’m still working on my hoarded bacon from May, not much left though from the hoard.
Zero backup bacon (got once before really don’t want it again) ETA still Jan 17 & 18 total of 32 cases incoming if I needed it I could only order on 19th it would be gone I’m sure.
Zero corn meal ETA jan 17 & 21 managed get 1 last order. keep 2 in stock (4-6 month supply)
Zero red onions lg or med ETA 11 & 13th about 450 cs incoming but bet they will be out by Wed.. I just use Kroger anyway.
Zero onion rings, these have been out for months (JULY!) ETA 13th & 17th 240cs also bet they are gone by this wed, this is just a personal item for me & I can do without guessing the price will be outrageous too.
Zero 73/27 beef chub (this is the cheap one) NO ETA
81/19 in stock but outrageous price heck cheaper to buy 1lb chubs of 93% @ Kroger, on sale at old price of 3.97 wish I had freezer room may force some room in them today assuming they still have any in stock.
Zero WI mozzarella blocks that I prefer been out for a month plus ETA still Jan 17th and only 14cs…heck I buy 4-5 myself a month can’t imagine getting one of those 14, just stocked last week with something else anyway.
Zero Pepperoni ETA 10th & 17th only 40cs incoming I got 1 left from what I stocked up on in May, need to see if I can snag 1 or 2 to restock.
Zero packetized Parmesan cheese ETA NONE glad I stocked up in May as well. Always was hard to get before the plandemic.
Zero mild picante salsa of name brand I personally use ETA 10th & 18th looks 40 today 11 next week. I’m guessing zero stock tomorrow since there are 10 Mexican restaurants in this town probably 500 to 1000 or more in their service area. Again Wal-Mart item.
Zero PIT hams ETA Jan 13th still 48cs been out of them for over a month, glad I hoarded this as well in May. Bet those don’t last a day either.
Zero pre-cooked chix wings been out for other a month ETA 12th & 17th 159cs each of those days bet they do not last the day.
Zero Jumbo chix wing ETA none price they have listed is down by -1.50 though bet it is a guesstimate that wont stay that price.
Kroger owned chain store:
Bananas have been empty for a while now they did get some yesterday or day before. Walmart has been out too.
Heavy cream out at both, did manage to get 2 half pints @ 6 am as I was the first customer in the door and they only had 12 total all else was empty no half & half either (had looked the night before too)
Milk & eggs has been hit hard and is empty on daily basis, got both @ 6am as being stocked.
Produce has improved in quality & supply since last time, probably moved to the next picking season elsewhere finally, quality before was horrible.
TP aisle is about 40% full instead of empty but then again I was looking at 6am store opening time.
Turkeys are filling up its entire area of freezers .89c must be a lot of formerly overpriced turkeys or as Sundance pointed out somewhere here as the last readily available protein.
MMW
Already seeing some of this here in south Texas. Fortunately a lot of the fresh product available here comes from here. I hope the farmers can keep up.
My local Winn Dixie Friday night had NO fresh produce with the exception of zucchini and eggplant and a few raggedy heads of cauliflower, bags of tiny potatoes and onions, some limp looking citrus, and a few tubs of wilted strawberries. There were no premixed salads of any stripe and no greens with which to make a salad. Fresh salad greens have been short the past few weeks, but this was the first time I’ve seen them completely non-existent. Bacon is outrageously expensive for a very small package of Wrights that might last three days. There is no variety in the milk at all. There was only one half-gallon of whole milk left. Example: Week before Christmas, there was no eggnog with the exception of three quarts of Lactaid eggnog. Weird.
Bread seems to be in good supply, but poor selection. It is sporadically on BOGO if you are not picky what bread you make a sammich out of.
I don’t have pets, so I did not cruise the pet food aisle. Cold cereal is picked over. Granola is stocked, but no variety. Do you like honey oats and almond? You are in business! (Blech.)
A full cart of staples for the week cost me $180 in October 2021. Friday, January 07, 2022, it cost me $230. I am not adventurous and neither is my family. We get the same old things every week. No wine, beer, massive steaks, brisket, slabs of hog, nothing. Just staples.
Signing off.
AG
My big problem this year coming is… deer! I’m stocked up on canned goods, freezer is full, home can meat, but deer can wipe out my garden overnight. They hop right over the fence or through it if I put up higher mesh. They ignore the deterrent I spray around my property. I’m pretty sure some neighbors have them trained and feed them so in this semi suburban area they are somewhat domesticated -I can’t make them venison. They show up mostly at dusk or dawn but last year two of them wiped out my tomato crop in the middle of the day when a thunderstorm made the light look dim. I’ve been reading of shortages here, are there any suggestions for keeping those critters out so my victory garden will be successful this year? Thanks in advance!
Deer hate lavender but it can be tricky to grow, requires soil ph of 7, I think. They don’t like marigolds either, but you already be growing them for deterring bugs.
Sweet corn farmers use a product called deer mace.
A friend in WY swears by fishing line, at least 30# test. Put up stakes around your garden, run the fishing line in a couple of strands, about 18″ and 36″. Something about them being unable to see the line because of eyes at the sides of their heads so when it brushes against them they get spooked.
There’s probably other ideas online, will just take a bit of research.
Good luck!
I saw on a homesteading channel on YouTube to put up a double fence about 3 feet apart. Apparently the deer are confused and won’t jump over. Sorry I don’t remember which channel but try a search for double deer fencing.
going to try it out this year.
Can you put something around the plants, that’s mildly unpleasant for the deer? Maybe prickly bushes, or barbed wire whose barbs are short, so that they don’t injure the deer – the deer just don’t like it?
Or put something there, that has the scent of a mountain lion, to scare the deer away?
Or maybe put some stones on the ground that are difficult for deer to walk on, with their hard hoofs?
Bless
We fenced the garden with chicken wire 10′ tall and planted zinnia’s around the outside of the fence No problem after that, they didn’t even attempt to jump the fence.
Bells on the mesh? Although, we have a similar neighborhood with a few salt licks, and tame deer. The noise mght spook them.
They don’t like rotten eggs. Break a few old eggs open where you want to protect your plants. They don’t like chives either. Lanna is right, they don’t like lavender. I have also strung up old CD’s on string on nearby plants, they move around and catch light, the deer don’t like that.
Have gardened for years, and over the long term wild animals are our most damaging problem by far. For deer, we use fencing 6 feet high, then run a strand of hot wire above that, powered with a solar charger. One needs to make sure the hot wire does not touch the regular fencing (we use fiberglass sticks inserted into the fence here and there, then wrap the hot wire around the sticks).
One must make sure to turn off the charger when going through the “gate” into the garden, which swings open. We use an aluminum pipe above the gate when it’s closed to carry the current for the hot wire across the gate area.
Through the years, we’ve had problems with coons, woodchucks, and even rats (ugh). Havahart traps and rat traps have helped a lot with those critters – they will dig underneath the fencing, even when there are flat concrete walking blocks or logs placed around the perimeter. For the traps, the animals seem to love marshmallows and powdered sugar donuts. Sometimes we’ve had to adjust the sensitivity of the havahart traps. We take those animals to a wild area relatively far away from our property and turn them loose.