On economic matters, no one really knows what is about to happen, with one possible exception. It is demonstrably certain inflation into 2022 will continue increasing. Beyond that, after pumping $9+ trillion into the U.S. economic system under the guise of COVID relief, we are entering some very uncharted waters.
On a macro level, CTH has an idea what is likely to take place in the next three years; however, before getting to that, allow me to present evidence for the underlying supposition. As you can see from this Biden message, shaped entirely by politics, on an economic basis the people around him have no idea what the downstream consequences of 2020 and 2021 will present in 2022:
The team behind Joe Biden brag about the U.S. economy being the only economy to continue growing during the COVID-19 pandemic period. Their top line reference point is the Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. Their brag is the U.S. GDP did not shrink during 2021 and the COVID pandemic.
However, what they omit (for political reasons) is that massive U.S. spending and bailouts covered the GDP hole. More than $9 trillion was injected for stimulus payments, blue state bailouts, payroll protection programs, rent moratoriums, school subsidies, medical payments to hospitals, student loan payment pauses, vaccination purchases, covid sick pay and years of continually extended and enhanced unemployment benefits.
They also omit that none of this domestic spending would be possible if the global trade currency did not take place in dollars. Our value is propped up by the fact that almost all trade takes place in U.S. currency. If that system was not in place, congress could not spend this much money without collapsing the U.S. into a devaluation position resembling what happened previously in Greece.
The only way for Biden to avoid the direct economic consequence of this massive injection of $9+ trillion, which has created the illusion of a strong GDP by subsidizing consumer spending, is to keep injecting more money to keep the artificial GDP inflated.
Biden really needs congress to keep spending. However, it now looks like congress does not have an appetite to do this….. so, the consequences are coming.
The prior spending covered a hole created by a drop in total economic activity. Outputs dropped, payrolls dropped, consumer spending would have dropped, etc. In essence, the void in economic activity was subsidized on a massive scale by government.
The U.S. economy was essentially a $20 trillion GDP going into the pandemic period. Think of the GDP as total value. We do not know what the total contraction on the economy was due to the first subsidy; but we do know the aggregate response over the past two years has been to subsidize -or cover- the contraction with a $9 trillion blanket.
That $9 trillion in artificial GDP value is the most direct cause of inflation. There are other aspects related to energy policy making products more expensive (energy, gas, fuel, transportation, heating, cooling, etc), but the $9 trillion artificial spend is the largest factor of current inflation.
These two figures will become important moving forward. A $20 trillion natural economy, and $9 trillion in unnatural spending to maintain it.
In our economic studies, CTH has assembled a reference library from which we can draw guidance. The 2008 and 2009 bailout phase [TARP, auto-bailouts, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), QE1 and QE2 as well as the porkulous bill] provide some reference points for long term outlooks.
There is a general investing guideline consisting of a factor of seven. Seven years to double money, seven years to recover investment, seven years of depreciation etc. The number seven shows up in multiple macro-economic reference points. Seven is also represented by an approximate of 13%.
Spending at the level of 25% of our GDP (over two years) creates an inflationary pressure point of a similar size. Two years at 13% is 26% inflation. In real terms, that’s roughly where we are right now – we are somewhere in the 25% range in higher prices on goods overall. That aligns with the spending subsidy inside the U.S. economy.
If my review of the ’08/’09 spending impact is accurate as an overlay, it means our natural economic cycle will take roughly four years to make parity between real wage incomes and the inflation rate. It will take us four years to grow wages enough to cover for all this spending. Meaning, in four years the level of overall wages will be enough to finally catch the inflation currently recorded in the price of goods.
However, the problem arises in the near future. Without that $9 trillion spent, our GDP would have contracted. We now need to work through the value of that contraction in the economy. We need wages to rise to compensate for inflation; but unfortunately, we are about to enter a phase where employment is likely to contract.
Two-thirds of the U.S. GDP is created by consumer spending. Inflation, created by prior spending, is chewing up current wages and incomes. As a consequence, disposable income is wiped out. Consumer spending on non-essential products and services (luxury stuff) is essentially gone. That reality is going to lead to a natural drop in employment as non-essential goods and services are no longer in demand.
We covered the prior point where the drop in demand for less essential products would have happened with government spending. That subsidy is now drying up, and the hole we avoided is now in front of us. All of the people who work in the economic process of providing ‘less-essential‘ goods and services will now likely see lay-offs.
This could potentially set us on a collision course. If the employment condition worsens, there will be no need for upward pressure on wages. At the same time, wage pressure decreases the inflation pressure remains high. This dynamic means it takes even longer than four years to cover the hole of the previous spending.
We have talked about the predictable consequences of this dynamic for approximately eight months. Some of the data is now beginning to surface to support exactly what we were discussing last year. All of the artificial spending is drying up, and now the inflationary bills (chickens) are coming home to roost.
Each spike on the WolfStreet graphic below is government COVID spending. Massive influxes of artificial payments into the economy. The first spike is the Paycheck Protection Plan and initial economic bailout. The second spike was the second covid relief bill, and the third spike (the tallest) was the soon followed even larger covid relief bill.
The WolfStreet analysis shows how inflation is much higher than wage growth {DATA HERE}. Those spikes represent approximately $4.5 trillion in spending – subsidy infusions into the U.S. employer and employee workforce.
Inflation will continue chewing up wages through next year. However, it can readily be expected that total employment will start getting a lot more tenuous as consumers/workers hunker down and prioritize spending on higher priced housing, food, energy and fuel.
“One Analyst”
Where’s Hunter?
The 25% permanent increase Biden just handed out in EBT is going to come up short.
someone has to rebel. and sell DIRECT. and deliver DIRECT.
we don’t need much. Meat. Drink. Fuel. Medicine. Ammo. Water.
Revenge.
I’d like that last item served cold…
Painting more $500,000 masterpieces.
I know. They found ONE idiot. That’s all it takes.
Don’t believe your lyin’ eyes!!!!!
Do they really think we are that stupid? /s
Well while you implied sarcasm, why yes, yes they do.
If the so called media had been neutral and serious about protecting the Republic, none of this
crap would have gotten beyond the wetting the finger and sticking in it the air phase.
As I said elsewhere, we all must prepare for the war between good and evil. They aren’t going to stop on their own folks.
When the SHTF the lyin’ media will need to run for the hills, but there really won’t be any place to run an hide. They will be hunted like dogs along with many politicians.
remember …all politics are local. Force all govt employees on the city, county, & state level from their jobs and nothing can be done by those in bunkers…no govt employees…no govt fxn.
The demagogue is one who preaches doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.
— H. L. Mencken
Exactly the single word response Reagan gave when someone asked him about Biden: “Demagogue.”
Yes they do. Biden not doing this. He probably don’t even know. It’s someone else doing this. He only does what they tell him. He’s a worn out old man. A puppet, not a president.
Yes. When referring to the current (mis)Administration, I think “Biden’s Shadow Regime” would be a bit more accurate.
The most important thing is the strength of the dollar and our integrity of the bond market. That’s why the debt ceiling scare is the biggest lie to the American people. The U.S. Government can never default on our debt obligations. That’s in our Constitutional guarantees. We’re just printing money out of thin air and when the music stops, who will be left holding the bag?
Look, just LOOK, at what happened to the -former- Great Britain when its pound lost world reserve currency status.
They are not even a shadow of themselves these days.
so who would be the coming US in that analogy?
China
interesting. ok, i get it now.
Now I understand why every person I thought was sleeping with a chinese spy, or had a chinese spy as a driver, or covered for China was committing treason – but they were really just investing in the future.
traitors.
I have been telling my beloved wife, we must keep our Covenant with God and trust Him.
Keep the Faith. Stand steadfast. Do not give in to doubt.
Go read the the book Soldier Ask Not by Gordon R Dickson. Then read the rest of the rest of the Dorsai/Childe Cycle stories.
Faith, when all else is in doubt, is what will carry you through. And God asks us all to keep the Faith.
Good books. I read most of them 30 or 40 years ago. Might re-read them.
Amen brother!
Yes, investing in THEIR future.
Dead right, the NWO deemed China as the world’s next superpower in the mid 70s .
Can the NWO be defeated is the real question as I see the situation.
So PDJT’s comment of CHINA did this to the WORLD – kills the Global Oligarch’s future!!!!
dont let it die!
I recall watching Mika’s dad tell us that all the power will be shifted to China. He was making the rounds because he had a new book out explaining it .
At the moment, it is the existential question for us all, Mungrel. They are at the apex of all this.
2032 per Socrates.
My theory is that it will be the U.N. and the World Bank. Their currency is the SDR, Special Drawing Right. The SDR is a currency that is issued by the World Bank and used by Governments. The SDR value is a basket of the currencies of the major economies of the world and weighted based on their GDP.
The Chinese Yuan has been a relatively new addition to the club. By the time our government gets through wrecking the US$, which they are doing for this reason, the same group of scoundrels will use their cronies at the World Bank to bail the U.S. and probably the world out and hence control us without the constraints of a national government or pesky oversight.
And it will be the usual suspects that will be pulling the strings, and you can bet that the Chinese ruling class will be at the table.
With all due respect, Sundance, I strongly disagree. 1) China’s demographics are on par with Japan’s, and that is not a good place to be. 2) The Chinese economy is a hot mess, with active lava flows in urban real estate, the financial sector, agriculture, and above all, on municipal books that have been cooked for the last 25 years. Their energy sector is deteriorating by the month, and it is unlikely to get better in the foreseeable future. And the final nail in their coffin is their complete dependence on an export economy. China’s economy is tethered to our own, which is why I expect them to start a war over Taiwan, a la Galtieri and friends in Argentina back in Maggie Thatcher’s day. We are all in a race to the bottom.
When after the war Japan stated that if you are ever going to defeat America, you are going to have to buy them. China took that to heart.
China would LOVE it, AND China NEEDS it, and maybe even HAS to have it, to stay afloat.
The Emperor for life has a LOT of built in, endemic problems coming to the fore.
YUGE debt bubble popping, energy crisis, rampant corruption, etc.
The US can keep printing all it wants and not go bankrupt.
Not if China suddenly puts its currency on the gold standard; that would stop the presses of printing more money and a move like that immediately crushes the US currency as being the one the world relies on. That would be a total Soros move but who says he hasn’t wooed the panda with that idea?
There is a trust issue with China that will never go away. A thousand gold Pagodas made of Bamboo.
Besides China Inc needs us they need a world of consumers to keep there slaves busy and keep them form offing there overseers.
Nobody is going back on the gold standard.
When the US dollar was overvalued relative to gold the world sent its gold to the US. When the gold became undervalued relative to the dollar the gold left.
Then we went off the standard. Last I checked our monetary gold was valued at $42.22 per ounce.
Wow…I have not thought of what you suggested…and I agree the printing would grind to an absolute stop!
Every water well has its bottom.
My feeling is that all of the government bureaucrats and politicians have been buying physical gold all of this time and crypto currency was a distraction to give them more time and less competition in buying that gold. When the SHTF and hyperinflation actually hits the USA, the Fed will announce that the dollar is now backed by gold and that it is worth $50,000 (insert value here) an Oz. Boom confidence restored in the dollar and now they are all rich beyond their dreams. What am I missing?
I’d take that value….
Only a very few are that smart & have the discipline to do so…
Yes, just like COVID/BLM/RIOTS have been a distraction to snap up land!
WEF and BIS have done dry runs for a cyber banking attack in the last 6 (?) months. The last one was in Israel with 10 nations and the BIS.
Discussed was a banking holiday and decouplings, among other things. Reuters had the exclusive. Their copy was the only copy used for anyone who reported it. There was very little detail in the copy.
The decoupling was an inference to dumping the USD as the reserve currency, imo. Could include other trade agreements.
Imagine a flood of USD returning to our shores. The inflation rate would most likely skyrocket.
Imagine, using a cyber attack overseas to destroy America?
That is not true! There are absolutes and math is one of them along with gravity. It’s like having a credit card you could only spend so much and when you can’t pay back you default.
The .gov may not go bankrupt but the American people … that’s another story.
The full faith & credit of the US gubmint lays solidly on the shoulders of the middle class. Destroy that sector (which is their intent) & the whole fiat system implodes.
China’s biggest manufacturing province just went into hard lockdown. ICYMI, wide ranging supply chains are over. The US is reshoring at an incredible pace.
There are currently 11 Steel Mills being built in the US.
Wasn’t the steel mills Trump’s doing?
Could you cite your sources, please?
Honestly, I don’t think you can ever withhold the debt ceiling, certainly not these days. There was a time when you could leverage it but if you default on our current commitments you will have Bedlam. It’s nothing more than a political ploy at this point (either side).
They (whomever they are; but, starting with the politicians) are bankrupting the country on purpose.
As Sundance has often pointed out, this is a feature of their plan, not a flaw.
I pity these poor souls (literally) as they forsake their souls for mere money and temporal power.
Buckle up Treepers, fiscal sanity has gone bye-bye.
a ham radio in an honest society isnt so bad.
keep your private stuff in the bedroom or at the bar.
Word.
I don’t see America making it for 3 more years with a fake president that’s owned by communist China.
His job would be the same as now, destroy the US from within so China can finish the takeover.
I don’t think that our military is up to the task of stopping China. Not with general Milley and company in charge.
me neither- 2022 midterms is the line.
the only time we have a BELIEF in transition of power – TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
its all or none.
dont let 1 single illegal thing happen. at all cost.
no pizza boxes.
no locked doors
no fake ballot drop boxes
no observers booted out
no voting stations shutdown for hours
no mail in ballots PERIOD. PERIOD. stop it all cost. including chaining your college kid self up to it to be a hero protestor like the 60s
And how about more Conservatives counting the votes?
Moderator , get this crap off of here. They want you to click to make money.
Little red flag appears to the right of the post when you hover with the mouse. Click it.
“If this ain’t a mess, it’ll do ’til the mess gets here” Sheriff- ‘No Country For Old Men”.
So many great lines from that movie.
“One analyst”. Krugman?
Krugman is an analcyst.
/s VERY Important.
HA! Missed the creative spelling on the first read.
Robert Hockett, perhaps?
Shiller schilled for “Hock it”. Sums it up.
Retirees on fixed income are hit hardest.
Yes sir.
Yes we are.
Hello. Yes we are. Although I could flip burgers if it got down to that… But I think all those jobs are currently held by non-English speaking “guests”…
“One analyst”. The other 99,999 said it’s the WORST first-year economy in 50 years.
or were deplatformed, or worse – thrown in the potomac.
someone commenter on this site said every amenedment is GONE already except the 2nd, because they arent quite sure how to take that one yet.
They know what’s coming, thus the 5 hour quarantine show.
It’s going to be painful for us but Armageddon for Sodom and Gomorah!
THIS…..Burn it ALL down..
At what point does the skyrocketing national debt implode?
I believe there was a small attempt at QE pull-back a few years ago. The stock market reacted very badly.
There is nowhere left to go but down. They are out of options except running the money printer at full speed.
This was all planned out – but being nice, law abiding citizens, we didn’t believe it would ever happen. They have every intention of having their Great Reset – and will do any GD thing to get it. Including, yes, really, blowing up the US economy and so here we are… Yes, excrement REALLY is going to hit the fan, get ready to deploy the umbrella’s because it’s going to be a shit show.
“Those TRILLIONS of dollars will not cost one thin dime”
“The green new communist amnesty / election fraud deal pays for its self”.
I think they’ll follow the Nixon playbook. They’ll announce price controls and wage freezes sometime around summer of 2022 to try to hold prices still before the election. Just like for Nixon, it won’t work. Eventually, someone is going to have to dramatically raise interest rates and destroy housing and stocks, just like in the 70s. Unfortunately, with all the debt America has now, it will also destroy the entire economic system. Better get Bitcoin and Gold. Now.
Another pipe dream, guns,ammo,food are much better.
It won’t last for long against hundreds of charging starving desperate people.
can totally see the liberal control freaks try this
Pass on the bitcoin. Gold, silver & guns, ammo, medicines, food, land for growing food, etc., stuff to barter (alcohol, batteries, etc.) are where it’s at.
And diversify. Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket.
Watch this video, he predicts just that and breaks down the reasons. It also includes a clip of Thomas Sowell talking about why price controls fail. One reason he believes price controls are coming is Jerome Powell would have to raise interest rates at least 700 basis points to out do inflation, that ain’t gonna happen.
Wow. Yep. He’s right. It’s exactly what I expect as well. I think it’ll be a few months later though. Probably 3rd quarter before Brandon tries to do this. Once the price controls end, it’ll be like trying to hold an inflatable beach ball underwater. Once they let go, then it’s gonna blow. No asset class will be safe. But, I think bitcoin will explode upward first when every millennial transfers their bank accounts into Robinhood all at once. After that, Bitcoin will plummet and gold and silver will be the last bastion to protect and maintain wealth. Though, as others have said in this thread, bullets will hold their value quite well, too.
So …. sell off our holdings? What to do?
Xi demands it, and Xi owns the Biden crime family.
That’s why Main Street is shut down, and Wall Street is doing just fine.
Bitcoin so I put my money and my faith in code?
Well now how could that go bad. I mean its not like an EMP or even just a utility power surge could destroy it or anything. Its not like governments around the world track every transaction and no your little piece of block chain.
Hate to burst the Bitcoin bubble the only reason governments have allowed bitcoin to exist is because they are poised to take it over. Fiat currency is fiat currency, and fiat made crappy cars.
And if anyone thinks sundance’s description is bad, it is much, much worse than that.
Watch Europe. It should be the leading indicator. Why do you think they are using COVID as a weapon? Why do you think they were so, so ready to jump on COVID and use it as a weapon? The elites are terrified of being held accountable.
It’s simply where we are in the cycles. Amazing that this never changes. Like Bette Davis said – “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”
Supply is Supply.
simply look at what is shipped in. what isnt.and start focusing on what PDJT said — Navarro Production Plan. It Exist.
fck computers!
Amen. EU will crash and burn first. Can’t print money like Fed can.
The best Government is a starving one…lets starve this one.
Hope it all falls apart on these bastards…then righous justice will darken their doorsteps.
NO MERCY!
I’d wager we could do with 1/10th of the federal govt we have now
Except for the MARINES, we need every one of em!
we need them home now.
I will say that I THINK the military being booted for no vaccines now, are most likely the people who did not put in a religious exemption in (possibly they wanted out of the military).
but I would be eager to know more details.
My opinion is that what you are saying about servicemen being booted now are exactly the ones who did not file an exemption request.
Never mind the silliness of the DoD doing a bait and switch with Pfizer’s BioNTech and Comirnaty shots.
I have yet to hear of any religious request being granted so they will probably be separated in the coming months after being formally denied. Ditto for medical exemptions.
with hesitation of them knowing they are sending home fully trained angry men to protect us.
No. We need them in the service. I don’t care what anyone says. I believe that most who enlist are not liberals or leftists, they are in large part conservatives, at least 80%. It needs to stay that way, or the Republic will not be restored.
Over 12,000 requests, not one was approved. The ones being booted are the ones most likely to be independent minded and not the yes types just looking for another pay grade.
If/when the time comes, they’ll be with us not against us.
only the ones of captain or less rank
That, I think, is excessive. I favor starting with eliminating 50% of government agencies and reducing staff in the remaining agencies by 50%. I would fire every person hired during the Obama and Biden years.
Government IS the virus infecting all 330 million cells. It uses those cells to reproduce itself and now roughly 50% of the working population works directly for the virus. when the virus load gets that high sooner or later it kills the host.
imagine thinking of creating an IOU system based on labor trade, and skill trade… and vetted for entry.
That system has been in place (informally) for at least a couple thousand years.
thank you for the reminder. us who are unaware, need to spend time finding that pipeline.
My dad talked about how his dad (electrician) always found work.
I was in refrigeration of one shade or another. Many of the old guys 50 yrs ago when I was a ‘prentice where quite well off as they worked throughout hard times and bought a lot of distressed homes to become rentals.
The illegitimate administration, putting on their best smoke and mirrors show. Everything about this administration is fake, from the idiot in the White House, on down to the moronic policies.
This will be known as the Age of Deceit.
The age of da cheat.
Speaking of ‘chickens’ (loved it, btw)- the ‘chicken’ I see is a game being played between two powers in the globe, atm. Which bank can hold up the pressure when the valve bursts, at least longest?
Evergrande is SINKING, just like Bear Stearns, Wells Fargo, GM and the boys did way back when… and their little brother (still in billion$, but not HUNDREDS of billion$) is sinking faster, too. The undertow will pull in more, over there and a PANIC is going to ensue, as a bunch of folk$ over here suddenly $hort out, there and run for for their fiscal lives, back home. Then as the bow breaks on the SS C.C.P., the mast’s crash is gonna HURT.
2022 is shaping to be unlike any year I have seen, yet- and the last 2 alone, when considering that, worries me.
Here we go, friends. Shelves, shells, family and friends. Be safe, I love you all.
Will the Federal Reserve Crash Global Financial Markets As a Means to Implementing Their “Great Reset”?
https://www.globalresearch.ca/will-the-federal-reserve-crash-global-financial-markets-as-a-means-to-implementing-their-great-reset/5764816
It’s looking increasingly likely that the US Federal Reserve and the globalist powers that be will use the dramatic rising of inflation as their excuse to bring down the US financial markets and with it, crash the greatest financial bubble in history.
Sundance thanks for referencing Wolfstreet site for analysis. I am a regular there and enjoy seeing the nice charts with nice objectiuve analysis. And also they have many very intelligent commenters there.
I have been anticipating the coming inflation wave since January of this year. Because of that I did massive needed home improvements – windows, doors, mini-split heat pumps, insulation. Most of these products I all installed myself as it was much less expensive and also I noticed that skilled labor was drying up. So by end of May of this year I completed my installs and have shown now that I am saving about 25-30% on energy usage. My house is a well built 61 year old house. So the improvements were needed and due.
Also All of the home products I bought 8-10 months ago have gone up 15-25% in price since then. There are 3 sets of windows I needed to be made by a contractor that can do custom windows. So I got the bid in September and locked in the prices knowing that they could not install till early spring next year. But by then the prices would be up another 20%. These are already mostly paid.
I have stocked up on other things as some were getting hard to find regularly.
So for 2022 my spending will drop dramatically (30% from 2021) as I have front run many items.
I also maxed out buying I-Bonds in Novemeber paying out 7.12% this 6 month period. I will keep buying more I-Bonds if inflation stays high. You can only buy $10K per year digital online. But you can buy up to $5K in extra refunds from your Fed tax return. Which I will do as I added an extra $4K in Fed Withholding above what I need to pay my taxes.
I did the same. I put $126, 000 into my parents old 100-year-old homestead last year (worth less than $35,000 as was) and added a new garage this year. I replaced everything. I also am maxing out on Series I Bonds. Now I can live rent free and get buy on social security. I’m also canning a lot of meat and bought most everything I will need to buy.
I bought a old beach house, did a full remodel and update and made it into a vacation rental. It has been busy since we opened last April. Booked into June of the coming year.
We carry no debt and have a few other rentals that are steady. I’ve done updating on all this last year so next years expenses will be low. My plan is to bank everything we can in the coming year.
I have some surplus food, ammo, water, could really use a better supply though. I think the key thing for me was to surround ourselves with like minded neighbors. We live in mid tn where most home owners know that the cops are 20 minutes away…..
How was installing the mini-splits?
I installed the MrCool brand as they come with pre-charged lines and make it easier for DIY people. Then the hardest part is drilling a 4 inch hole through your wall if your house is brick like mine. You need to run a new electric circuit from the main panel for each mini-split unit. I was an electrician in the Navy Seabees, so that was easy for me. Others may hire an electrician to do the circuit wiring. You need to install a 60amp AC disconnect switch box outside next to the Mini-split.
I installed one 230 volt and one 120 volt units, both single zone. large one for living room, kitchen end of house and smaller one for bedroom end of house. And they work well for my use with a fan to help move the cool air around more. If you are going to use the heating pump feature, they are very efficient at heating down to about 34 degrees. Then below 20 they still work but the efficiency is not as good. And mine will still produce some heat at -15 deg but at a significant energy increase.
I use mine just for cooling.
My house is Milwaukee area and has a natgas radiant heat boiler with copper lines running through the ceiling in ranch house. Lines are also in the basement floor for basement heating which I turn off.
However I installed a switch to turn on my boiler circ pumps during summer with the basement circuit open. Then water flows through the cool basement floor and cools the ceiling upstairs. So I have a very cheap geo-thermal setup for summer use. Only using 75-150 watts to run the pumps cycling water through the cool basement floor and then upstairs ceiling keeping the house pretty cool. Mini-splits are then used to cool and dehumidy more on the really hot days but do not have to do the majority of the cooling.
Condensate drains down a tube from inside fan unit to outside ground.
Thanks
mini-splits are perfect as the sole heat/cooling source for a hunting/fishing/recreation cabin in Wisconsin. Providing heat/cooling for the entire cabin from late March through Thanksgiving. Winter you would need a wood burning or propane (tank) heater. Just another example of their possible uses.
Perfect for garages used as work places.
If you live in warmer area seldom below 20 degrees, a mini-split can provide year round heating and cooling very nicely.
“Two-thirds of the U.S. GDP is created by consumer spending. ” per article
so what happens then? firings? downsizing? adding more people to the gov handouts. This is that show of making us all fight for food.
Economics are not the ‘tell’ for markets. The peak of markets and economic activity occurs when T-Bill rates rise to exceed 10 yr Treas rates. It is a sign of investors believing once-in-a-lifetime gains are easy to come by and caution is thrown to the wind. Once this pattern occurs, it represents a market in frenzy and any event can panic markets which leads to economic correction as people lose 30% assets, stop buying goods and people fired. Same pattern since 1953. Not economics but market psychology. We still have 3yr-5yrs left in the current cycle at a best guess.
Interesting way to analyze it.
I need to relearn how to shop for groceries, and where. There are some unique ingredients in Venezuelan soup.
The trick is to shop from the center of the dumpster. Stay away from the creamy stuff along the edges.
Thanks for this – I almost choked on my drink!
Aldi’s.
Stone soup w/zoo animals or housepets for meat?
I’ve paid every bill I need to pay.
I’ve bought everything I need to buy.
I have a strong sense that Sundance’s predictions are a bit optimistic. – The only question is when as the markets can remain irrational for a very long time.
Our oil and military will keep the US dollar relevant.
Uncle Joe doesn’t want us drilling our own oil.
“It’s dirty”. Was his quote about oil.
And the radical moves being made in the military, on several fronts, are going to cripple it. These are planned moves by the liberals.
The Army I once served in is no more.
Perhaps, but still many Trumpers in the military, and oil drilling will come back after Biden is out.
The military has traditionally been conservative. Extraordinary efforts are being made to weed out, or flat out indoctrinate those currently serving. Obama’s purge of conservatives in leadership may have been more effective than anyone realized. Similar efforts are ongoing today.
The liberals are very aware of the conservative nature of the military, hence the effort to weaken it.
If I recall correctly, some of the things in the “Build Back Better” legislation are actually aimed at destroying the ability to drill oil in this country.
The liberals, well, let’s call them what they really are, communists, are going all out in their efforts now. They see right now as their best opportunity, and they are giving it all they have. They hate this country. Hence the “fundamental change” they have been working on for so long.
I pray God had mercy on this country and exposes and overturns the evil doers. Without God there is nothing. Liberals usually hate God. They will regret that, eventually. We *ALL* must answer to God one day.
“Biden” isn’t even sentient, and they have no plan of relinquishing power. Who will make them? The “GOP”? That bunch of traitors like the current set up.
Neither is the Corps I so loved.
What oil?………….JoBama cancelled our energy independence by EO on his first day.
On a lighter note, I hear that the EU is upset that Russia isn’t supplying enough natural gas.
Oil is there. Just hope Biden doesn’t sell the rights to the Chinese.
There is always “one” in the crowd…
There are known knowns, things we know that we know; and there are known unknowns, things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns, things we do not know we don’t know.– Donald Rumsfeld
that Bush period was horrible but i always enjoyed Rumsfeld making mincemeat of the presstitutes
RIP Rummy. 🙁 July 09, 1932 – June 29, 2021.
He was one of and perhaps the only member of the Bush Admin.
who did not bad-mouth Donald Trump.
Very good point. We basically know our current government is working to crash the economy by the blatant actions they’ve taken. What we don’t know is what are the big multinational corporations who have signed on to the Great Reset planning. Of greatest concern is the food processors JBS, Tyson and Cargill are largest meat/poultry companies (can’t remember the fourth) and China controls Smithfield pork. Add to that Kraft, Unilever, and others and things could get bleak quickly if they cut off supply. All the major banks, communications, manufacturing and shipping companies are onboard as well, and of course almost all of our medicine comes from China – not that I trust any drug company now but they control antibiotics and most critical care meds.
With the way this economy looks to be heading, sans a miracle of some sort, doesn’t history say that governments generally will start a huge war when they have no economic solutions?
I believe that you are correct and that efforts in that regard are currently underway.
We have never shut down the world economy before. Therefore we have never restarted the world economy before. Nobody knows what comes next. And the US has all but collapsed the institutions of government to the point where the Government now depends on corporations issuing threats and canceling speech to enforce its will.
Hokkoda: Good points about FedGov relying on corporations to do FedGov’s dirty work.
Meanwhile ……………….. more and more H1-B visas continue to invade from India. IT rates (salaries) are down 33% year over year during the plandemic. Who cares anymore? I am just going to let Joe take care of me until he doesn’t. And they wonder why they can’t find employees. FUSA!
Oh King Joey, won’t you at least buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
The uptown folks drive Porsches, they must make amends.
Worked hard watching Oprah most of my lifetime, no help from my friends,
So King Joey, won’t you at least buy me a Mercedes Benz ?
Oh King Joey, won’t you buy me a health care plan?
Working to pay for it myself is too hard on me.
I want to get prescription drugs and a doctor for free,
So King Joey, won’t you buy me a health care plan ?
Oh King Joey, won’t you buy me a retirement on the town ?
Prove that you’ll take care of me and buy my next round.
Oh King Joey won’t you buy me that big house down the block that I found?
I’m counting on you, King Joey, please don’t let me down.
I like having Foreign currency as a back-up plan
I think silver is an easier hedge than foreign exchange – and it is usable as local currency. (Few farmers in my region accept Yen). Don’t need a lot, just enough to get by in the event fiat melts.
The shadow government behind Biden is discussing and rumored to be writing a new “Covid relief package” for the Omicron variant. I don’t doubt that they will put into any such bill some of the Green New Deal that didn’t pass. And that will only drive further inflation and government money-printing.
Yes, it will take a long time for wages to catch up to inflation, but what “catches up” the loss in value of savings for retired or going to be retiring people? What about all those people who are no longer looking for work and aren’t considered in the unemployment figures?
At times, I feel sick and scared and powerless.
They need to spend BBB dollars desperately. The FED will accommodate the spending by adding to their current $ 9 trillion Balance Sheet. This is called monetizing the debt. Individuals, countries, institutions didn’t buy the debt. The FED created the dollars ‘out of thin air’ and bought the country’s debt.
Stock up on non-perishables and get all your medical care/procedures done now, car and home repairs.
Stock up on household Items such as light bulbs specially the hard to find types, air filters etc. normal things you will have to replace sooner or later.
I have an 11 year-old Prius I’ll be selling, with 28,000 original miles. I looked up Kelly Blue Book value on it, and it’s close to what I paid for it originally.
Not only are used cars going thru the roof, but energy-efficient ones even more so.
Blew my mind.
I know that our discretionary spending has dropped considerably and since I am now not allowed in many establishments due to being “unclean” it is going to drop even more in 2022! And as our food and energy costs increase by double digits AND our state and local taxes do the same, there will be even less desire or opportunity to go out and spend money!
I lived through the Carter years once and that was more than enough for me! I still miss my dad every day, even though he has been gone for almost 15 years, but am honestly glad that he isn’t here to see what has become of the country that he loved, and proudly fought to defend…
I feel that way about both my father and mother; first generation Americans. Mom grew up in a communist country. She must be crying in her grave…glad she is not here to witness the decline of the United States of America.
My husband is first generation American – his mother was a teenager when Hitler took Norway and his father was a Merchant Marine, unable to go home for seven years because of the war…to the day that he died, at age 94, my father-in-law would tear up when talking about the opportunities this country had given to him!
Vikingmom, same here about dads. Mine passed in 2005 and was WWII.
I often think that at least he isn’t here to see what’s happened to our great country that he (and my uncles) fought to defend.
So sad.
It is heartbreaking and infuriating!!
Honest words and I have the same feelings and thought, V-mom. The latter ’70s sucked. Thank God for Reagan.
My parents – both life long, old school, mostly conservative Democrats – would be heartbroken if they saw this crap.
My brother and I were discussing essential versus non-essential goods and services.
Within that frame of reference, it might be a good idea to keep an eye on the lines at fast food places, coffee outlets, and convenience type stores.
Those are huge non-essentials that I think will be the first to show signs of contraction.
Also, increases in gambling.
Gambling, prostitution, drugs, boot legging, and the barter/non taxable black market on services.
There are other factors that spell disaster too. Who really knows how much money and other benefits all the illegals are getting. Food, housing, medical for many millions that are not contributing tax revenue will eventually break our back.
I want my President back.
They get supported.
while we are getting supported.
as SD pointed out – China is their future, and we are in the way! their ponzi scheme here has run its course.. and we have to many guns to piss off without decimating first.
It costs hundreds of billions annually to pay for the democrats illegal human / child trafficking operations.
OAN Used to have a meter on their front page that showed “The cost of illegal immigration”.
By the end of December 2019 it was more than 200 billion dollars, and that’s probably a low ball estimate IMO.
After 2020 the meter went away. I think there’s probably at least twice as many illegals than their estimate.
https://i.insider.com/5daf20984af909163a6a3f82?width=750&format=jpeg&auto=webp
If you have a used car or anything else you want to sell – now’s the time for a yard sale, consignment shop etc. while people are still spending.
Take a look at Thomas Hoenig material. He is the guy who consistently voted against Bernanke’s quantitative easing policies, and low interest rate policies, when he was on the FOMC. Christopher Leonard new book “The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke The American Economy” Coming out January 11,2022 will probably rely heavily on input from Hoenig .
“Let’s keep the progress going”
Now that’s rich.
MoPar2020: In JoeBama’s world, “progress” means:
Yeah, we all know where this is going.
The one analyst that described the strongest first-year economic track record of any president in the last 50 years, was in fact little jimmy, a 9 yo entrepreneur, who has a lemonade stand.
Heart right with the Lord. Hard assets. No debt. Simple living. Lots of ammo.
Good to go.
Biden’s plan on all administration policy is: “Declare victory, take no questions and run back to Delaware.”
To quote Charles M. Schulz (Peanuts), “No problem is so big or so complicated that it can’t be run away from.”
Of course, the analyst was Hunter and he has clearly had a great year under this “President”! But no one in the MSM is going to bother asking for clarification as to exactly WHO the analyst is, so that they could then interview them and get the numbers upon which they made their claim! Because, why would they? They are all onboard, because they are too dumb to realize that the journalists were the “useful idiots” that were the first to go once the dust of the revolution settled!
Ultimately, the middle class needs to move off the dollar and onto something like sound crypto. I don’t know how this would be done but it needs to happen. There is no fixing this. Freedom cells dot org.
When the electricity goes, so does the crypto
No thanks on the crypto.
Buy toilet paper, tissues, paper towels, feminine hygiene products, aspirin, tylenol, etc.
Also don’t forget air filters for your furnace, and car oil, filters, fluids, brake pads, wiper blades.
Maybe get a spare mower and extra vacuum bags, dish soap, laundry detergent, bleach, tooth brushes and floss.
Socks, underwear, an extra pair of comfortable shoes, and the next sizes up in everything for any kids.
The fake president continues his reign of hell.
God help us.
O my you are so right. I pray constantly to God to deliver us from this illegally installed non-president
Inflation of prices for goods and services can only go to the point of removing them from the reach of the masses. At that point prices will fall…. or the poor will start to eat the rich…..How much of our spending is on really necessary goods and services? Total your monthly expenses, you will be shocked at the difference between the money you need to live and the total that you spend. The majority of consumers have been deceived into thinking they need all the crap that is so necessary to support our GDP. Another huge segment has been lulled into complacency by ever rising property values and market investments. Those can disappear in a heartbeat. The end is near…… Could your family survive in an 18th century economy? Bear in mind that there are 330 million people in the U.S., a land mass that can naturally support about 5% of that total without technology. We are living an unsustainable dream. Think food, water and shelter in a primitive sense and make ready to defend your turf.
The time for Truindenashendubbabapresser is now, I’m afraid.
https://i.postimg.cc/JnZxc
g9m/4b29236155e4c203.jpg
😬
Who on God’s green earth would believe this is the strongest 1st yr economic track record in over 50yrs except dementia Joe ?
Well, there are his 81mil voters 🤣
The Biden Bunch is going to take a page out of the old Bill/Hillary Clinton book.
“That’s an old problem. We solved it.”
I remember there was no homeless problem during the Clinton presidency because nobody talked about it in the media.
There is no Covid problem if it has been solved.
There is no Afghanistan problem if we were victorious.
There is no economic problem in America as long as we have currency printing presses.
There is no food shortage as long as we have increased EBT payments.
And here I am, trying to figure out how to fix my well worn shirt. It’s developed holes around the cuffs but the rest of it is perfectly fine. I figure I can fold it over and use an overlock stitch to seal the breach between the cuff and the sleeve. The only problem is it’s a knitted fleece material – I shouldn’t have waited this long to mend it but I never thought I would need to put that effort into it. The thing is 20 years old as it is, but being as we’re becoming Venezuela, I should probably try getting another 20 years out of it. FJB, left right and center!
And also – inflation is a pernicious thing… If I wanted to replace this shirt and buy it local, the ONLY place I have to go is Walmart. If you have looked at the clothes in Walmart lately, you would notice they are getting thinner and thinner every year. You know, like portion sizes are shrinking, Walmart clothes are thinning. If they keep this pace, they’ll be see through by summer! And then where will the “People of Walmart” be???