The Canadian dollar is starting to feel the effects of long-term uncertainty. It will get worse.
...”Since the start of June, the currency has weakened 2.9%, which would be its steepest monthly decline since October 2024, as Canadian bond yields fell further below U.S. yields.”… {source}
Now, this is where you really need to pay attention to details. Remember, the U.K and EU have a vested interest in protecting Canada from economic collapse.
President Trump doesn’t want immediate collapse either -because Xi will move in fast- but Trump is not going to provide the same financial and economic lifelines that the other four-eyes will trigger.
Reuters is reporting that tomorrow the U.S. will formally declare a “non-extension” of the USMCA trade agreement {ARTICLE} and that triggers a 10-year period to decoupling. It is very important to understand there is a difference between announcing a “non-extension” and announcing a “withdrawal“. The Canadians are completely confused about what is about to happen.
In a non-extension announcement, the USA is saying they do not want to extend or renew the terms of the agreement beyond the current trade agreement terms. Yes, this is a 10-year exit. However, that’s not the part that matters. Announcing a decision to exit the USMCA (CUSMA), a full withdrawal from the trilateral deal, triggers a six-month countdown to exit.
The deadline to announce the decision to extend is tomorrow, July 1st. There is no deadline on the timeline to announce an exit or withdrawal from the USMCA. That announcement can happen at any time.
Put simply, announcing a non-renewal is a 10-year exit. Announcing a withdrawal is a 6-month exit. The announcement to withdraw can come at any time after the statement of non-renewal.
You can see the confusion in this article:
WASHINGTON, June 30 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration is expected to formally declare on Wednesday that it will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, starting a decade-long clock to wind down the 32-year-old North American free trade zone as the three countries haggle over proposed changes.
That declaration will kick off a six-year review session, part of a “sunset clause” negotiated by President Donald Trump’s first administration. However, it will do little to alter contentious negotiations over the pact’s future, including sweeping demands to boost U.S. and regional content in North American automotive production and trade protections to block Chinese goods from benefiting from USMCA. (read more)
The most likely scenario is Trump/Greer first say the USA is not renewing (not extending). Then, at a later date determined by them (in my opinion it will be after the U.S-Mexico agreement is finished), Trump and Greer will then announce the withdrawal, which will trigger the 6-month countdown to exit.
There is no rush to announce the withdrawal; the only immediate action is to announce a USMCA renewal is not happening.
What this scenario does is put maximum pressure on Canada. As soon as President Trump says the USA will not extend the agreement, all investment into Canada becomes extremely tenuous. The Canadian dollar will weaken further; a slow contraction will begin. However, Canada will still be oblivious to what comes next because their media will tell them they have a decade to work things out. They don’t.
At a time determined by President Trump and USTR Jamieson Greer, they will announce a decision to exit the USMCA which then triggers a 6-month phase before the agreement is terminated.
This is where Canada will be caught off guard and the economic collapse will likely be rapid and catastrophic.
Canada will only just begin to think about the “exit” scenario, once the non-renewal announcement is made. It will take them a while to realize how vulnerable they are – they are currently in full denial mode.
During this period, President Trump carries massive leverage against Canada. He will likely probe their trade position and willingness to comply with reciprocity after the non-renewal announcement. The outcome of those probes will determine the timeline of his exit announcement.
During this non-renewal phase, we may even see President Trump tease the exit, then retract, then tease the exit again. Each time Trump tests the Canadian government with statements, the Canadian economy will pulsate and weaken; it will drive the Canadian government to either extreme anger, or defeated compliance.
Timing the completion of the U.S-Mexico deal within the probes of Canada will be super interesting. At some point as the U.S. closes in on the deal with Mexico, Canada is going to realize they are naked without any agreement.
The worst-case scenario for Canada is President Trump announcing the USMCA exit on the same day he announces a completed bilateral deal with Mexico.
It would be the worst-case scenario for Mark Carney because the ignored voices of those few people in Canada who have been trying to warn about this would suddenly get a lot of attention.
The Canadian dollar is Collapsing…
At last, some good news…
I don’t understand this hostility towards Canada. As far as I can tell Canadians don’t…
A: Flood the US with 40 million 3rd World Immigrants.
B: Smuggle Cocaine into the US.
C: Smuggle Heroin into the US.
D: Smuggle the bulk of Fentanyl into the US.
E: Have millions of Canadians on US welfare.
F: Have thousands of Canadians in US prison.
G: See Canadians carjacking, raping and murdering Americans on a daily basis.
H: See Canadian truckers killing Americans on the highway.
I do see all of the above with Mexicans and 3rd World immigrants transiting Mexico into the United States. 🤔
You’ve been commenting and following here for awhile. You know what Carney is trying to do, with CCP and to his own economy. Don’t muddy the water with alt logic.
You like ticks?
The EU, Canada, Mexico and China are like ticks on a Texas longhorn sucking it dry.
You really don’t get America First do you?
We have a population of 400 million versus Canada’s 40 million yet Canada buys as much “products and services” from us as we buy from them each year according to Greer’s Office of Trade. That means that every Canadian buys and consumes ten times more “things” from Americans then we do from them. How does that make Canadians “ticks”.
It’s not about the Canadian people. It’s about their feckless government, which the people voted into office. But it’s about getting the GOVERNMENT there to treat us fairly on TRADE, DEFENSE, and BORDER ISSUES. There are drugs crossing the northern border even if it’s a fraction of what comes through Mexico.
It’s not about directly “punishing” the Canadian citizens. Their gripe should be with THEIR government, not us. But like most Liberals they will say “Orange Man Bad!”.
Personally I don’t believe in any voting systems integrity anymore. Otherwise carry on!
Canada is not playing fair with trade, military investment, the border, drugs, illegal aliens, and the media. Canada wants to act superior and disparage President Trump and the USA. The leftist politics in Canada and trying to influence politics in the USA. Canada can go pound sand.
On item D: I think that Canada is now a larger source of Fentanyl into the US than Mexico since President Trump has taken kinetic and other action against Fentanyl coming from Mexico.
We have Mexican cartels working with CCP, Indian, First nations and now some Islamic terrorist groups here, mainly in BC and ON so far, to convert huge quantities of precursors from China into Fentanyl that goes to the US via Vancouver to Port of LA, and by truck. The RCMP and many politicians here at all levels are owned by the CCP.
This is a huge part of the WEF/CCP’s campaign to destroy the threat that President Trump’s America represents to their New World Order plan. I expect that kinetic activity will be required by the US in Canada, as it was in Mexico, to address this quite soon.
Spend some time reading Sam Cooper’s articles here to get the gist:
https://www.thebureau.news/
Hey Sunriver chinadian patriot – your pals the Chinadians refuse fair trade re. Energy, commodities, banking… Oh, and give sanctuary to hundreds of mullahs, and thousands of CCP soldiers – get stuffed.
I lived in Canada from 1971 thru 1977. The Cdn dollar was worth about $1.04 US
At that time, about half the grad students in my department were Americans. Today, about 70% are Chinese.
Why do you say that?
This has been their plan, they want to move into a digital currency and they will soon.
There are many people in Canada happy about all this.
I’m a Crypto-Currency trader, and President Trump says that Dogecoin (which you can currently Buy @ .13 cents) is going to make Millionaires, out of the people who buy in when it’s cheap. I thought it was a steal @ .27 cents, but its about 1/2 price right now.
I’m NOT saying to BUY anything, BUT IF it goes to $2.00 or more, then the people who SELL, will be Millioniares!
Don’t worry, Canada has plenty of green energy and 3rd world killers to get them through this.
However, the next admin will just renew, especially if he’s successfully impeached
Read the article. A full exit is a 6-month process. Then, there is no agreement to renew, it’s over! Kaput.
I find it difficult to believe the Canadian decision-makers do not realize what is about to happen. These are ‘smart’ people. Surely, surely, they know… but simply don’t care.
On the other hand…
the Canadian decision-makers are living in a fake reality where they believe they cannot lose. Their responses go beyond simple arrogance; it is a Delusional Culture of Invincible Superiority—the Blind Arrogance of a Self-Deceived Empire fueled by Grandiose Narcissism, Organizational Hubris, Leadership Blindness, and Collective Narcissism.
It represents a level of dysfunction historically unseen.
They can impeach him just like last time, but that doesn’t mean he’s out of office. It would take strong Democrat majorities in BOTH Houses. RINO’s could join in of course, but that would be the end of their careers and possible what triggers a revolution.
Let’s be serious, the only revolution in the US will be a communist one.
OUCH! I regret to say I think you’re right of course, but OUCH!
…and the only shot fired in defense was by Kyle Rittenhouse.
Let’s make a deal. Canada takes the 50M illegals in the US, the Haitians, the Somali’s, the Afghani’s, and 120M crazy democrats but we reserve the right to withdraw later.
Canada is taking in the Haitians anyway.
🤣
They will immediately believe they can outwait President Trump’s term.
RINO’s and democrats in Congress will tell them to just outwait President Trump’s term.
Sundance makes perfect sense….it ain’t gonna go that way.
Dems will find judges who will block the withdrawal.
On what grounds?
On what grounds? A Roberts/Barrett court 🤪
Only partially sarcastic.
TERMINATE FIVE GUYS EYES IMMEDIATELY! 🙂
A weak Canadian dollar affects the border businesses. Less Canadians coming over to shop and/or they spend less.
They are constantly thumbing their quasi-French noses at us bragging about not coming over here. Tough tittie cupcakes
They may have to remain in Canada and use their “free” medical system thus freeing up space in the US system for Americans. They may no longer be able to afford paying out-of-pocket for American medical care.
They also may have to sell their second homes in the USA thus freeing up inventory for American citizens.
As the price of gasoline plummets under PDJT, the border Canadians will enjoy driving to the USA to buy cheap gas.
The gasoline will eventually have to be paid in Canadian dollars.
As for healthcare, neither system is all that great. Even a simple MRI takes months to schedule. Thanks 0bama.
At least it will put more money into the local economy up in Aroostook county, Maine.
Sundance, what is the recourse the uniparty congress, chamber of commerce, etc. has to fight this? Appeal to these institutions seems like Canada’s only play, but I’m confused as to what they can actually do to ruin Trump’s plans.
They could threaten to recall all their actors, comedians, and musicians!!!
Win. Win.
The Canadian dollar is hovering near $0.70 US dollar. It has not been below $0.70 since March of 2025. The Canadian dollar has also dropped against the British pound and the EU dollar. The market is talking. Let’s see if Canada and its fearless leaders are listening. But I agree that the team is going to hammer out a deal with Mexico first and then see how well Canada can dance to the piper’s tune. Are we tired of winning yet???
I suspect a number of bankers from Commonwealth countries as well as the Canadian bankers will beat a path to Carney and their politicians to explain the sword of financial ruin is about to cleave Canada into pieces. Perhaps that might make sense to the “leaders” up that way. Their survival is paramount; their citizens not so much.
I doubt they have the funds collectively to prop them up for very long if at all.. Canada is going to reap the whirlwind.
Amy Coney Barrett says yes.
But, I am also curious … Is anyone up north saying: “Make CANADA Great Again?”
Because, the current status-quo is pretty damned dismal. Even though Canada used to be, and still certainly could be, a powerful and independent country!
When did they sell out to China, roll over, and play dead? When did they decide this was the very best they could do? It NEVER was!! “Fight! Fight! Fight!”
You’re not Mexico. And, you’re not pathetically dependent on the United States. Who ARE you? Who do YOU think you are? (Do you even remember? …)
Not that I hear anywhere in Southern Ontario.
99% of people here are almost exclusively engaged in proving to each other that their TDS is more advanced and esoteric than everybody else’s. 🤯 🤮 😡
But, I am also curious … Is anyone up north saying: “Make CANADA Great Again?”
Try Elizabeth Nickson, Welcome to Absurdistan. E.g.:
https://elizabethnickson.substack.com/p/not-civil-war-not-world-war-3-not
Will Canada hire Iranians as negotiating consultant advisor?
Could someone enlighten me?
Was there a 10 year de-coupling clause built into the agreement?
I just love reading Sundance’s recurring and updated USMCA Palace Intrigue!
C’est toujours intéressant.
Maquis?? That you?
Non, je ne suis pas le grand Maquis. Just an elder with old language studies that enjoy the topic at hand. 🙂
I’d give Canada favorable terms in exchange for the Save Act passage as long as point of origin rules are provided to our benefit.
Gives new meaning to “elbows up”.
Just sayin’…
It will be so sad for the non city dwellers of Canada. They will be the only ones aware that their Manchurian candidate, Central Baker, dirtbag p.m. didnt tell them what was going to happen to their currency when he messed with a bull who has an economy 13X his.
New Brunswick has great natural resources (Irving Gas and Lumber empire), GORGEOUS coastline along the Bay of Fundy, Grand Manan Island and lobsters galore.
Carney can stick his middle finger where the sun don’t shine.
I love NB. The people. The coastline. Sense of freedom there – I often wonder when visiting if Ottawa is a bit more hands off NB because of the resources they bring to the economy.
Epstein Island Carney has dropped from 57% approval (strongest in Cdn history) to 41% currently. He avoids Ottawa like your mother-in- law. He closed Exit 51 and checks in with Xi daily. The fools would rather watch a bad soccer team. Maybe ignorance is bliss. The East Indians are drowning in bargains. In Regina they are building a Mosque that will live broadcast daily prayers. It is directly across the street from an Anglican church whose minister loves the idea. The folks want to know if Canada will win the soccer game.
So should we stock up on maple syrup now or wait for the price drop?
Someone must be making it in the US?
Or, use the standby WW2 alternative, Mapeleine
Vermont makes great Maple Syrup.
Nah, we still have Vermont.
We can get plenty locally sourced between Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and New York.
Chains like Walmart buy a lot of the Canadian maple syrup where it is cheaper, so they will likely press for an even lower price in their supply contract given the opportunity.
Not likely to see much of a difference when it shakes out on the retail grocery side though.
I sure hope the Pres Trump & Secty Greer have consulted with the American Canadian Economy and Security (ACES) Caucus in Congress … 😉
Bye Canada, not sure we ever really knew you…..parasitic relationship that must end.
Grow up because we are already gone.
The Canadian leaders don’t even care. The worse things get, the more control they will exert over their citizens. You have to remember that leftists WANT an economic collapse. Everything they do is working toward that end.
I noticed the term “four-eyes” in the article. There was a kid in the 5th grade who called me “four-eyes” once.
I want a worse case scenario for Mark Carney. Thank you Mr. President for your attention in this matter.
Of course everyone knows the international border on the 49th Parallel should have gone up and over Vancouver Island not down and under, thereby putting British Columbia’s Capitol city (Victoria) in the USA where it belongs. Maybe this is a chance to correct the error. Just make all the Canadians move out first.
There may yet be an opportunity to make a deal to buy it from Canada.
A web search says the island is about 9,493,171 acres.
Just running with some $5,000USD/acre that would make that just shy of $50 billion for the land. Completely doable with US GDP being what it is.
Figuring the value of existing infrastructure would be a different discussion though.
Canadone.
What would you expect from a rabid Socialist government currently in office in Canada? Socialisst bring about chaos in their social and economic policies and it is always for the worst.
Great work Sundance. Love your insights on this topic. No one is informing us on this issue, no one. Keep it coming!
I revel in Carney’s sad potato face.
I feel for the Canadian people, who have been subjected to this buffoon and his minions.
I believe this is the reason Carney is so confident in his obstinance, he thinks he has 10 years. Trump will be gone and the next administration will just renew and all the fuss will be gone. For being a high power central banker he does not seem too bright.
They’re about to learn the meaning of “FAFO”!
When should we expect the bilateral U.S-Mexico deal to be completed? If that is the most likely trigger for withdrawal from the USMCA, it seems it would be best for that to happen very soon, as in perhaps sometimes this summer and no later.
Please trigger the 6-month exit.
Canada needs a reset from net-zero carbon taxes, carbon-credit green energy, and mass 3rd-world immigration.
Canada’s population sits at approximately 41.5 million. It was 34 million in 2010.
Nobody knows how many got away and have not been counted.
This growth has been heavily driven by massive expansions in temporary resident programs
Approximately 4.6 million Canadians work in the public sector, which accounts for about 21.8% of the total Canadian workforce.
Carey was born in Canada, but he is an EU elite and a WEF member.
Canada is just there to be looted.
The boomers, my generation, have to be slapped awake. Only a hard reset will do that.
Who could imagine a country like Canada with massive natural resources that the world needs deciding that the oil and minerals should be kept in the ground because solar panels and windmills from China can do it all.
That sort of insanity rivals Pol Pot’s in its attempt to remake society.