My apologies in getting late to this but the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised. So, it takes a little longer to get to cut through the clutter and get to the data that matters.
Overall, the BLS report [DATA Here] shows 431,000 jobs regained in March from the government closures during the pandemic.
Despite the job regain number being less than expected, it’s not bad at all.
As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs [Table B-1] showed the strongest rebound with 112,000 jobs. With 25,000 job gains in hotels and 61,000 in food services (restaurants). A little more than 2 million jobs have been regained in the last year from the COVID-19 lockdowns in this sector.
There are a few troubling indicators like a decrease in residential building jobs (-2,600), and a surprising decrease of 6,000 jobs in trucking and transportation. Retail overall gained 49,000 jobs with most of them in the food and beverage sales sector. However, retail furniture stores lost 1,600, electronics stores lost 1,300 and garden supply stores lost 1,900.
The retail job pattern would seem to indicate consumer spending being squeezed and priorities on spending leading to job losses in non-priority retail shops. Boosting the disposable income concern, is a statistically significant loss of 5,000 jobs in the retail beauty and personal care stores.
On the upside, business and professional service jobs in March had a nice lift with 102,000 jobs added.
Overall, as we would expect, the national employment picture looks much like the economy that overlays it. Jobs in food creation, sales and distribution are holding strong as a consumer priority. However, jobs in convenience stuff, indulgent stuff, and luxury sector items are contracting. Meanwhile the job losses in trucking are a little odd.
Wages have increased 5.6% on a yearly basis, but still significantly lags inflation. The average workweek and overtime declined slightly in March (0.1/hrs), so there’s not any real demand side pressure visible upon the manufacturing workforce.
We don’t believe a damn word they say anymore. Nothing. And especially numbers.
Creative accounting, Gipper….count on it.
But math is racist now so they just pull numbers out of the air now. Kinda like adding letters to the rainbow thing.
Which is why they don’t use it. Balled up and tossed in the trash can. Much better to “reimagine” it. That’s a word, right?
They don’t pull them from the air. These numbers come from the seventh most distant planet from the sun.
As my dear old Dad used to say “they pulled em outa their ass!”
How much of trucking is down, because of the clusterf*ck that is the West Coast ports?
Love it Dutch! I was saying the same thing just with a planetary reference: Uranus.
VERY creative accounting!
“…the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised….”
There! That explains why none of these numbers can be trusted!
“Completely revamped” so that – 5 can equal + 5.
“Do whatever it takes!” – Billy Jeff Clinton
They also revamped their stats re food price increases to include food bank pricing, which is nothing at all, or deeply discounted pricing.
You have to admit that takes a lot of nerve!
I agree, we don’t get the truth about anything.
When women have to give up pedicures in order to put gas in the car, we are all going to feel the effects of inflation.
Beautiful Nail is going under.
Fwiw I know quite a few women who are no longer paying $70 to get their nails done and are instead buying product and doing it themselves
The old fashioned way. Have never wasted my money on it. Old things new again.
Of course we can’t believe their numbers, but let’s, for the moment, assume they are correct. It would make all the sense in the world for there to have been a large-scale surge toward the job market given the alarming inflation increase that we’ve been seeing.
How many of those who thought they may sit at home with the kids a little longer have now decided to high-tail it over to that ‘ help wanted’ place and inquire. Or how many have recently retired and now realize their retirement plans were shot to hell by this inflation?
Also home mortgage rates are going up! That’s enough to put the fear of God in any young couple that has an adjustable mortgage etc. etc. Maybe that extra part-time work won’t be so bad after all. Etc.
In that many of these ‘new arrivals’ to the job market are just those who, during the pandemic, were enjoying home life with a little part time work on the side supplemented by savings, I don’t find it remarkable that these employment numbers were reported in the face of a raging inflationary inferno which gives no sign of abating.
I also would expect that those applying for work will have long waits in crowded spaces before they can fill out their applications.
(cont.)
Also factor in the immigration surge. How many latinos are waiting for their ten cousins to arrive from Latin America and to begin looking for work themselves, or the millions of other immigrants that will be arriving soon?
I’m sure many husbands and wives are fretting over this (whether they’re latinos or not). It will create all the more competition for work!
Allegedly, one of the reasons so many women got into the workplace in the 1970’s was because of the inflation and the man could no longer support a family with his job
Nothing “alleged” about it. All a part of destroying the family. Insidious…and it is working.
Yes, I do remember that!
Good point! Had forgotten it.
Could the job losses in trucking have anything to do with the bankrupting cost of diesel? At least for independent truckers? Just a thought…
In before we hear demands from the big trucking outfits for more work visas to increase their work forces.
Waiting for the flood to come through the soon to be nonexistent border
Yes, illiterate drug users from the Congo and Syria, unable to read street signs should make driving with them on the same road extremely exciting.
There have so many American citizens killed by people such as you describe. I think many more will be lost. Drink almost always seems to be a part of it as well. I fear there will be many more who lose their lives because of the Uni party’s fanatical fixation with inviting the world and his wife into our country…OUR country.
The Democratic failed cities like Baltimore are getting housing ready for the big influx of illegals. Baltimore’s population has fallen so badly, the Dems are trying to replace them with illegals.
Detroit as well.
Winter always has a layoff of truckers that work construction in northern states. I haul
snow and pipeline equipment from time to time when I can’t haul dirt because the ground is frozen
We have a Treehouse resident trucker who comments on the Open Thread. He keeps us apprised with on the ground reports. Today he says a lot of the problem is people just don’t want to work. I can well believe him.
Tagged you in my comment for accuracy.
Thank you.
When prices go up, people have to cut back. This means the same money buys less goods which may be filtering into need for fewer trucks. We can look next month to see if this is playing out.
Ports begin charging diesel-powered polluters to build Clean Truck Fund.
A 40 foot container now cost $20 extra each way in and out of the ports. Welcome to clean energy
Ports begin charging diesel-powered polluters to build Clean Truck Fund – FreightWaves
Forced jab as a requirement for employment perhaps?
Yes, very likely part of it. Funny how that aspect has dropped out of the news.
That’s exactly right. Speaking as a former and now retired truck driver, the outrageous diesel prices put owner-operators right outta the business. The big companies buy fuel by the truckload, Owner/Ops buy it with a credit card. It ain’t worth it. A week of two thousand dollar fuel bills is just too much. Add in govt regs and it’s more profitable to work at Wendy’s. So enjoy your milk , ice cream and veggies while you can. I’ll be drinking my own coffee while sitting on my porch with my Dog. It was a good run while it lasted!
God bless you! On your porch, coffee in hand, and your dog? Life’s sweet pleasures. It doesn’t get better than that, and I hope you enjoy every minute!!
https://freedomfirstnetwork.com/2022/04/who-is-really-running-the-country
Yeah! Jobs!! That’s the ticket!
It’s no different from the Climate Change Hoax, The White Supremacist Hoax and The Coronavirus Deaths Hoax. They just make up any numbers that they want!
The breakdown of employment gains by Red State vs Blue State would be interesting.
There is one State (which one escapes me at the moment) which cut off unemployment benefits. The State refused the Fed extension money.
Bottom line is that unemployment is dropping like a rock as there is no incentive to stay home and every incentive to eat(!) and find a job.
Even just that one State’s surge in jobs will skew the federal numbers in a favorable direction.
I’m sorry I can’t recall the State at the moment, but I’m wondering if this won’t spread to other Red States.
–
–
–
P.S. Who cares if it makes the employment stats look good for the Lesko Brandon Politburo? We need to get people back to work, and that’s a good thing.
People working and paying taxes are more likely to be paying attention. Another plus.
I think that was Idaho.
Dang Oldtimer’s Disease! I saw it in the last 24 hours. But I went fishing instead of searching on the topic. The point was it was at least one State and hopefully more.
If it’s Idaho, then thanks, Born Free.
Remember,
If your are unemployed, BUT, aren’t looking for work, you do not get counted as being UNEMPLOYED!!!
Hence, the real number is probably still over 10%%!!!!
I thought of that when posting, Hawkeye. But people who, out of the blue, take jobs still reduce unemployment.
They don’t all subtract from the unemployment rolls, but I’d say a fair number do.
P.S. Government accounting and statistics = Guess which thimble the pea is under?
There is no pea under any of those thimbles.
Yup. And that’s how the game is played against suckers.
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics……………….. and Gub’mint Statistics.
“There are a few troubling indicators like a decrease in residential building jobs (-2,600), and a surprising decrease of 6,000 jobs in trucking and transportation.”
Betsy Jones is on point, if independent drivers-owner/operators have a 3 to 5 % profit margin, the cost of fuel will remove that. Or else the drivers need to work 3 weeks out of 4, because of the fuel cost, which is linked to maintenance and insurance costs, which is the same result in the end, they can’t afford to work every day. Company drivers have more flexibility, because the large trucking companies have more financial cushion, but not by much. This flows into shipping companies, warehouse storage and transfer, maintenance shops. What will happen when the truck drivers stop working two weeks out of four. Rhetorical thought. Chaos will happen.
add into this the new rules on cdl’s.people that had a cdl were grandfathered in,but people looking to get a cdl now have to go thru a 3 week course and fork out close to 4k.
That’s also relevant, thank you for mentioning it.
Trucking companies will cover the cost if you commit for 1 year.
How many of that number are in this country illegally?
Good question. I wonder how the even greater surge at our southern border expected is going to impact housing and food supply? No politician in CA is asking these questions. All we hear is get ready for shortages, oh and millions of illegals are coming. Once Title 42 is lifted, I read expect 300k to 400k a month.
Special thanks to all those “leaders” and the useless Supreme Court who looked the other way on election fraud. And the laptop, and J-6, and Russiagate, and and and.
All of them? Why?
Truth is treason in an empire of lies.
Crash Positions
https://capitalisteric.wordpress.com/2022/03/31/crash-positions/#comments
Figures never lie but liars sure can figure.
It would be interesting to compare the total number of jobs in the service/restaurant/hotels today to the total number of jobs pre-covid. I suspect they would still be much lower (in total) than they were before. Maybe it is partly because the COVID checks aren’t flowing as freely and I’ve also noticed that salaries seem to have gone up due to the shortage of employees. There are few businesses that don’t have “Hiring” signs out front these days.
That is strange about trucking. In addition to prices of gas requiring efficient planning, less stock, and trains being more cost effective, I wonder if they are hiring bootleg drivers and paying cash, like they do in construction. . Maybe to punish the convoys but as likely to save money becaus eof the cost of gas.
They’ll be revised downward in a month or two.
haha, probably right.
EXACTLY!!!
Remember Ozero’s monthly economics reports were ALWAYS revised to show WORSE numbers than originally announced with much fanfare by the media . And OFTEN a month’s numbers revised downward for two consecutive months. Likewise unemployment reports were always revised upward in the next one or two months.
For a long time, Democrats have used very old and easy-to-spot tricks to fool their gullible supporters.
BLS revised Jan& Feb up by 90k. Another arm of gov’t totally corrupt
They did that by stealing from last summer. They can’t keep up that shell game forever.
I have been trying to book a trip to the beach. Prices are higher now than they were pre-Covid indicating high demand. We have traveled all during the Covid downturn and have had very cheap hotel stays right on the beach. That appears to finally be over. Since we do our beach vacations in Alabama, the Covid restrictions have been minimal. We are mostly beach and golf, and take carry out back to the room, so the restrictions that were in place were a minor inconvenience. The first couple of trips that we took, we practically owned the place in high season.
Also, the inflation in hotel rates has been huge for the hotels I use for business travel.
Airline prices to and from FL are way higher than normal as well
Good article at ZH re looming freight recession. Original source is FreightWaves. May help shed light on constriction in trucking sector. Also, with high inflation, fewer goods are moving even though total cost of goods is same or greater – similar to concept behind GDP rise.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/why-i-believe-a-freight-recession-is-imminent
Initial freight recession likely due to the repeated duplicate orders and escalating order quantities to “never again get caught short” during a supply chain disruption, which lasted many months.
ALWAYS happens with disruptions in JIT Supply Chains with lean inventories!
Many likely ending up with MONTHS of overstocking as the shipping bottlenecks clear
… just in time for Inflation to rob the Discretionary Spending needed to consume the overstocks!
I truly look for Sundance’s analysis to help me on all issues of the day as it is generally stellar. So please do not read this as bashing the above take at all. Frankly, numbers in – numbers out , so one can only analyze what they are given . Sadly , and this is not partisan as I felt the same way under Trump ,that the agencies were not telling the truth to harm his presidency, I just do NOT trust the numbers given.
April Fuels!!!! April Fools!!
I don’t believe!
500,000 “Job Seekers” invading our southern border every month, and the Americans going back to work is nearly 100K fewer.
Watch for O’Biden to claim those 500k as Monthly Jobs Gains, cause they’re not showing up for Unemployment!
ECONOMIC KILLER = Quits Rate
4.2+ Million per Month for past 5 months
=> 5+ Million Annually!
Pay is not keeping up with Inflation
QUITTING for another job is the ONLY SOLUTION (for now)
UNIONIZATION resurgence is coming (Amazon just lost its 1st Union Vote)
When a company’s worker quit rates become more frequent than annually,
• Recruiting & Hiring Bonus costs explode.
• Unfilled Jobs destroy output.
• Inexperienced Job/Industry Hires require costly training cycles.
• Productivity drops.
• Capacity declines.
• Adaptability fades.
• Core Competencies erode.
• IP departs with lost employees.
• Competitive-Advantage “Moats” crumble.
ECONOMIC KILLER!
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t04.htm
=> 50 Million Annually!
[missed the edit window🙄]
Re retail furniture. I have a friend who represents several furniture manufacturers, both in this country and in Asia. He is at the furniture market in High Point, NC, but took time to send me this note: “The rate for a container of furniture from Indonesia was $4300 on October 15, 2020 it is now $27,000. It has doubled the wholesale price of imported furniture. The guy that delivers for us has a big box truck and it takes $350 to fill it up with diesel. It gets about 12 mpg so his delivery charges have gone thru the roof.”
This mirrors what I’ve heard. A supplier for goods my wife uses in her business said shipping container cost alone had gone from $4k to $21k between orders. He refused to reorder.
“More jobs created in any term, ever”— and that’s just for Chinese spies, Ukrainian Nazis, cross-dressing Granny-killers and Hunter!
Can say from 1st hand knowledge that the furniture business is worse than what is being reported. My daughter is a furniture buyer/interior designer for an upper end chain. 1st, the delay in receiving furniture is running up to 6 months if the product is available at all. 2nd, the number of customers is about half of what it was in 2020. She says very few new houses are being filled with new furniture as compared to 2020. She estimates that overall, the mid to upper end furniture business is less than half what it was with little sign of recovery
People are going to flea markets, antique stores and estate sales for furniture now. Who wants to pay inflated prices and wait 6 months for a couch or bedroom set?!
CDC now running BLS numbers?
If the BLS is reggigering how it calculates employment numbers that tells me I can’t trust its numbers. It stands to reason as business opens up from being forced to close it stands to reason people come back to work. We re not creating jobs we are simply reopening the closed ones.
It is good to see! I credit both blue states ending their restrictive covid policies and the people getting back to normal again.
It’s been hard not to notice restaurants and entertainment arenas full again. Looks like pre-covid days in my area.
I work in a medical facility. We’ve been on a massive hiring frenzy. No limits. Hire everyone qualified you can get your hands on. Higher than average pay. Whats the real truth ? We receive federal funding. Essentially these are government jobs. There is ALWAYS a layer of deception in every statement emitting from gummint.
Just curious — do all employees in your medical facility have to be vaxxed? If so, that may be one reason jobs are harder to fill.
Interesting about truckers..
Lots of CDL needed signs all over central texas.
Anyone wanting to work and learn could ha e their pick of truck driving jobs around here
How many steel plants , foundries , shipyards , fabrication companies , opened up , how many middleclass blue collar jobs opened up and are paying $70 to $80 bucks per hour in wages and benefits ???
Answer ZERO !
They were the jobs shitheads like Biden helped flush down the shithole of history .
We produce nothing , we have overwhelmingly high numbers of low skill low pay jobs and you don’t support a nation on $15 bucks an hour plus tips !
I was trained in 1973 by some of the men who machined the heat shields for the Apollo missions at the only place in the country that could do it !
It was the third largest steel production plant on tidal waters in the world ! In my years I worked as a production mechanic on many projects Frozen Food ships , Super Oil Tankers , A series of Offshore Oil Drilling Rigs which required the cantilever beam to be stress relieved in an oven and again the only place in the country this could be done and it’s all gone ALL OF IT
So is the tax base that paid for schools roads police & fire protection oh and the teachers plus all manor of government services !
All now paid by printing fiat money and bankrupting and laying to waste what took over 2 centuries to Build protect and defend by men and women of honor and integrity !
It only took 50 years for a group of pathetic parasites to jockey themselves into positions of power and wealth to destroy all of it !
I dream of a serious rumbling , an earthquake ?
No it’s the men and women rolling over in their graves having sacrificed all for this nation to survive and thrive only to be murdered from within by worthless self serving treasonous parasites
Robert, you have it exactly right. Well said.
“…the BLS has completely revamped the way they calculate employment and all of the familiar data tables are revised.”
Uh, oh. During Covid, I was keeping track of cases and deaths and other data on my state’s website and on the national website for my state. About July, 2020, all the charts and graphs suddenly changed. As the charts changed, the figures were not the same as those I had recorded. Cases were added. Deaths were added. Deaths began to include “suspected” Covid deaths. Numbers for months went up or down from previous numbers and the previous figures were no longer available. Cases and deaths by race were no longer recorded. Data was hidden behind new links that had to be clicked or on other pages. And those numbers and charts were revamped again in late 2020. I get very suspicious when governments begin to revamp and use new ways to calculate.
Independent truckers are feeling the squeeze of higher fuel prices. Those close to retirement, or those whose businesses are only marginally profitable are closing shop. This leads to consolidation and higher prices for everything that moves by truck.
The “transitory inflation” theory is now officially nonsense, but the move towards the planned, centralized control of the economy, by the government, continues unabated.
This isn’t a left/right political phenomenon. It’s a battle waged on the left, between oligarchs and facists, and who controls the reigns of government power.
People are just speed-bumps that temporarily slow their progress, and the Uniparty in D.C. offers little protection from either faction.
I wonder if truckers are retiring rather than deal with all the crap anymore?
…As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs…..
If true, it’s thanks to dropping the mandates and masks!
The government bans un-vaxxed truck drivers and the number of truckers goes down by 6000.
Cause and effect?
For those you who think you have a chance let me say this. Today it was announced (in LA-CA btw) that the city has finally reached an agreement with the federal government on the homeless crisis. The city will gleefully pay 3,000,000,000 dollars to build 16,000 units (errrrrr/ beds) for the homeless. To help with the crisis. And if that’s not enough, well we just might rethink it. Let that sink in. You still think anyone can change this? Anyone???
Just shorten it to the BS report. Go back 30 years and calculate the numbers, they are as twisted as Igor’s back.
Joey might’ve added 431,000 Illegals to the workforce.
A minor observation on costs. Took the grandkids out for ice cream the other night. Five small cones, a chocolate chip cookie sandwich and a Reese’s mud, $41.
No dinner or real food involved, just small ice cream cones and the like,
Yeah, prices have become a bit absurd.
After BLS rigged the numbers, I mean restated the numbers in a different way for January I stopped participating in the monthly BLS survey. I work for a temp staffing firm so they like getting numbers from my industry. They have called me 5 times asking for my numbers just for February. I don’t need to cause a problem for my company so I just told them I chose to stop participating. The robot, I mean human calling was affronted. Like, you can’t say no to the government! I just say this is a voluntary survey and I’m no longer participating.
Sundance, the decrease in trucking jobs is an indicator that we have entered a recession and they are already seeing a drop in demand.
Now if only the millions of jobs and businesses shut down for the whu who flu came back things would humming along. Too bad the country doesn’t have any of it’s own oil and gas, would that that not be great.
What portion of jobs added are solely attributable to Florida?
As long as there is a nice story to go with their pliable numbers that can be hastagged, liked, and shared who cares!?
/s
The only people I trust anymore are tried and true such as here at CTH.
But numbers of all kinds gathered and delivered by the government can’t be trusted they come from untrustworthy source.
That source is the Empire of Liars.
Lol!! People went BACK to their jobs. Is that hard to understand? It’s NOT new jobs!! And the numbers are still WRONG!! DON’T give this administration ANY credit because they DON’T CARE ABOUT US AMERICANS either way!!!
So basically “hamburger flipping” jobs was the big winner?
(I am not degrading anyone that works in that area)
To be adjusted later to reflect the gap in political party preference deficits.
As the recession worsens our rulers will bring out the greatest statistic of them all, from the Obamboozler era, jobs created or saved.
Looks like the Carters, instead of dying in the traditional sense, are just going to Shrink away to nothingness!
Sorry I depend on ADP which does not indicate massive job growth. Further the per centage of the total labor force remains at historic lows. Add to this over two million high skilled, highly desirable third world immigrants who will reduce a 32 trillion deficit and make significant inroads in our wonderful trade balance and I know my kids understand why I have real estate in New Zealand and Thailand. The next depression will make the last one look like a Church social. Which of course is the aim of the globalists. The last one created some unique political movements which our academics and bankers did not anticipate. I doubt the future will play out as they expect either.
Massage the numbers then invent the outcome.
Every single thing is in decline & all Americans & most of the world see it clearly.
Let’s go Brandon………….onto the next disaster.