Former Toys ‘R’ Us Chairman and CEO and Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch, appears on Fox Business to discuss today’s remarkable retail sales data. Storch rightly notes the September year-over-year spending was a whopping 8 percent on durable goods.
This outcome foretells good news for the holiday shopping season… except, as I noted, there is a slight issue. None of the current on-hand inventories are enough to fulfill demand for a big holiday shopping season. Hence, my advice – buy early, buy now.
I know I’ve spent more on guns and ammo this year than in the previous 10 years, so thats my contribution….
You and half the country! 60 cents around for 9mm ball?!?!
I’ve seen $1.20 a round advertised.
I have said before that not being able to eat out and go to bars would mean strong holiday sales. People put off vacations and travel due to covid shutdowns. The democrats have screwed themselves again. All that unspent money will show up in banner spending.
Spot on. My bride and I had planned to be in Italy the first two weeks of April. … well that went out the window. Then we said, let’s go to Vegas at Christmas time. … and nope, not going to potter around in casinos wearing a damn mask so, that’s out. That money was budgeted and rather than have it burn a hole in my pocket, we do have three grandkids to spoil so … 😉
Casino called me. Two nights and $300 free. Told the girl no thanks. I probably screwed up because the offer was good until the end of November. Should have taken something near the end of November because chances are masks come off the day after the election.
Like you, I am not going around wearing a mask. I hate wearing one and prefer freedom.
I’m not sure why, but a few weeks ago my wife got an offer for four free nights at the Wynn and she and her sister were going to go but the masks didn’t come off so … nope! I agree with you about the mask timing. I’m thinking by Thanksgiving, you’ll have seen the last of them.
Umm yea me too. Bought guns for Mom, Dad, me and wife and am looking at a tactical 12 Ga for me from Santa.
All the associated ammo and accessories too.
A few items of tactical gear and survival equipment – Knives, a hook billed machete, flashlights, a chain saw, multi tools, pepper spray.
Stocked up on propane for the grill and gas for the back up to the back up generator in case they go after infrastructure (something Im betting they will do once they lose the election).
Bought a cord of wood plus cut a couplethree in the back 40 laying there seasoning atm for the fireplace and collecting 2X4 scrap for the wood burners.
I got enough TP to supply an aircraft carrier for 6 months. And canned food up the wazoo. Plus 60 days of MRE for four.
These are all things Id spread out over a year or not buy at all, that Ive bought in the last 3 months.
And its hunting season. I got 8 fat Chinooks a couple weekends ago. I froze 6 and smoked 2. Also got 3 Pinks. I got a doe the other day with my bow. I took a quail while out squirrel hunting in September. Unfortunately I didnt get my bear tag this year. My buddy gave me a goose. The wife hates game especially goose. The raw meat is really purple but its white when cooked. I have two refrig/freezers, a stand up freezer and a chest freezer to fill.
Ive spent way more money preparing than I will ever admit to the wife, but Im ready for the zombie apocalypse.
Now its time to let the wife go nuts for a couple weeks on Thanksgiving/Christmas while supplies last and panic hasnt set in. One thing Im buying though is for my youngest grandson. My wife watches him three days a week and every day when I get home from work he asks me if I bought him his Paw Patrol Dinosaur boat thing. I will be like Arnold in that Christmas movie to get it for him. It will be done or he wont be my best friend anymore ;).
This was an enjoyable post by you jinmichigan. I wish you fantastic joy in watching your grandson open his Paw Patrol Dinosaur Boat.
Dear Santa,
J in Michigan wants a Keltec 14 round, twin tube, short length, 12 gauge pump. Myself, I don’t believe in Santa, so when the salesman asked if I wanted the camo stock version or the all black, I said … (swallow) … yes!
One upstairs, one downstairs.
To get another in time, you’ll have to be like Arnold … .
Yes please.
Merry Christmas!
Already started my Christmas shopping—grandkid stuff is easy peasy. Now those millennial adult children are another story?….???
I hear Trump merchandise is on sale.
Also, Rush Limbaugh is donating 100% of all proceeds from his store to first responder families that are nominated for help. Really worthy cause…
I get mine one or two small things I know they want or need to open and then some gift cards to places they frequent. I usually buy small boxes at the dollar store to put cards in and wrap them. My kids actually like that better and it’s way easier on me. A lot less clean up of wrapping paper too! Last year I didn’t even do gift cards. I bought them each a decorative box (like for your dresser or jewelry) and put cash in it? They each had a couple of small items like socks for my son, etc. and their box o cash.
The grandkids? I limited the toys last year, they’re drowning in toys. They got a couple, but their big gift? I completely redecorated their bedrooms, bonus I made my adult children help? We didn’t repaint, just new bedspreads and wall decorations. We changed their rooms in a flash and they were thrilled. I’m thinking a few items and perhaps savings bonds this year or maybe subscriptions to something ?
Last year my wife had a snowman she built from stuff she got at the craft store for each of the grandkids and dressed them with matching snowsuits, hats, boots, gloves and scarves. She then placed their toys around their snowman. Was a big hit especially with the adults in the room.
Pre-Loaded Gift Cards are a great invention. We use them all the time augmented by either floral arrangement or Cheryl’s Cookies or one of the other mail-order goodie vendors.
The my pillow guy… Interestingly to me anyway I didn’t like the pillows. But the sheets and the towels are fantastic. I bought the towels for gifts I really like the towels. Plus I like his story and his shameless proclamation of faith. If you get them wash them first and mind the lint trap it fills up. After that…. so nice.
Gift cards lol. Can never please teens or young adults.
I hear cash is acceptable, even with teens or young adults………Some nice crisp bills that look like they just came off the printing press.
People vote with their pocketbooks … which doesn’t look all that great for the party of rioters.
As that skirt chaser once said … “it’s the economy, stupid.”
On another issue … why the hell am I seeing Biden ads here in one of the bluest states – NY? What’s he hoping for … a blowout so he can claim the popular vote mandate when he loses the electoral college?
Is some part of PA in your TV market? That would be my guess
My guess is that every state is in play for President Trump. Tough road in NY or especially California where cheating is massive in scale but still enough disgust with the tyranny that there could be some doubt in the Biden internals.
Leon B,
Looking at it bass aquwards,; Bidens people are seriously concerned they are losing even “traditionally solid blue” states, and THATS why you are seeing ads for Biden in N.Y. state.
Let’s face it, the State is RED, except for NYC, and the city has largely emptied out.
I do think we will see states go red, that haven’t in many years. The virus, and the aftermath with Dem governors may actually boomerang back on the libtards.
I hope you’re right. I’m going to be a complete nervous wreck on Nov 3rd all day and night, I’d at least like to end it laughing gleefully at all the states he picked up this time around. It will make my being wound up tighter than a spring for 24 hours worth it!
Hopefully it will be 2016 on steroids. Can’t wait to see the liberals cry again.
Dutch – Agree we’ll see some states go red which haven’t in some time. Maybe one or two northeast states, possibly NV and NM. President Trump saying today at his rallies that Minnesota will go red.
Mark Simone, a long-time radio host (they call him Mr. New York), has stated many times he thinks the President will take NY.
That would be sweet!
Could we get rid of Schumer next? Can I dream??
Same! Seeing Biden and PT ads in the Hudson Valley!
I wish just once that President Trump would use that quote from Billy ? We really WOULD see splody heads ?????
Been buying items for both personal and household use all year but have focused on buying U.S. made versus just “stuff”. That has cost notably more than had I simply bought typical Amazon offerings which are largely Chinese or ASEAN made.
Bought a Viking dual-fuel range (5 natural gas burners on top and electric convection oven). Made in Greenwood, Mississippi. Fantastic unit despite being uber-pricey.
Not all American mfg. companies are listed on the various “Buy American” website lists. Shopping for USA-made products *does* require research, because many product websites don’t clearly show the country of origin for each of their products. Several of the items I bought were not listed on “Made in USA” websites nor were their mfg. locations advertised. I had to dig or actually make phone calls to determine their country of origin.
Same here, GB. No Chinese products for me. Yes, it often takes some research to ferret out country of origin and yes, costs more, but well with it. I do not want one cent of my money going to the regime that would gladly see the US destroyed.
We bought a Wolfe 6-burner cook top 5 years ago; it sat in the garage for a year before installing. One of the burners would not adjust correctly and we put up with it until this year. Finally contacted Wolfe last spring, and they knew of the problem and offered to pay for a technician to repair it…but…we live waaaay remote and couldn’t get anyone within 150 miles to come. Finally, a Wolfe ‘avocate’ located one 3-1/2 hours from here; he came and replaced the control valves on all 6 burners (paid 100% by Wolfe). Cannot recommend them more highly!!
Yes I initially tried to buy a Wolfe but they didn’t offer a dual fuel unit in the size I needed.
What will they do about Black Friday shopping. If we can’t have large
Thanksgiving with family then how do they justify hoards of shoppers stampeding
around the stores causing mass fights over $5.00 items?
My sister works at Kohl’s. She says this year they’ll be closed for Thanksgiving but will have a huge Black Friday event that runs through Cyber Monday.
I think a lot of retailers are doing online black Friday deals
I do very little online shopping for some of the same reasons I buy American made only, stopped watching the NFL and refuse to go to the movies.
I dont support people who hate me and use my money to destroy everything I believe in.
The lack of inventory has been obvious for quite some time. The pandemic & subsequent Lockdown exacerbated the issue.
By this time of year, big box stores would be stocking their floor space beyond shelf space with stacks of seasonal gifting items. Local stores are reshuffling items to make the shelves appear well stocked while floor space remains clear.
Certain items we regularly purchase remain scarce/hit-or-miss (isopropyl alcohol, peroxide, Lysol disinfectant spray, name brand paper products etc…). Locally, our mall’s anchor stores like JC Penney’s and Sears are closed. Macy’s is in trouble…limiting options. We’ve decided to avoid Amazon and Walmart for holiday shopping this year. Instead, we will be creative and personalize gifts using family photos and where necessary/available – shop local for Made-in-USA products.
And Etsy! You can see the state they are in right on the item’s listing. A lot of really cool, handcrafted items by Americans on there. Here in WA state we “aren’t allowed” to do traditional Trick or Treating, so I got a really cute wooden stand with a bowl that stands maybe 3 feet off the ground and is decorated in Halloween colors. I’m going to put a “please take two, happy Halloween!” sign next to the bowl and put out my usual decorations. I am more than 2 hours from Seattle and in a kind of rural area, so every farm stand within 10 miles of my home is on the honor system, and people do definitely abide by it, so I think it will work out fine.
Two hours north of NYC, it’s still considered a bedroom community for the Big Apple…but not for long given the current mayor’s destructive policies. Anyway, Dutchess County has a couple of ‘cities’ but is mostly rural – you need a vehicle to get around. Still, the honor system is risky. A couple of years ago we needed to tend to a family emergency that evening in NJ and decided to leave a plastic cauldron of treats on the front porch with a similar sign. Before we left, the cauldron disappeared with a couple candy wrappers floating on the lawn. Greedy goblins – likely teens who drove into the neighborhood. Ruins the spirit of that once fun holiday.
I’ve noticed this too. Had to go to our local IKEA for a crib recently, and they are incredibly picked over.
The only thing I’ve worried about are baby items. Hopefully things like clothes don’t sell out! But even if they do, I know how to make my own…
There are lot’s of really good 2nd hand stores too, at least where I live. Best place to baby/kid shop, since they never stay in them long.
I’ve been wondering how new parents/grandparents are coping with the loss of BabiesRUs/ToysRUs. That chain was a reliable source for us as a growing family with four children and then grandchildren. Relying on Amazon or Walmart online just isn’t the same experience. As mentioned above, Sears and Penney’s have shut their doors in our area this year…further limiting options for that sector. Sure, we still have brick and mortar versions of Target & Walmart (we avoid them) as well as some limited selections at big box stores like BJ’s, Costco, Sams Club. We also have the baby section of Burlington Coat Factory but their items, like those in Marshalls & TJ Maxx are picked over and often appear as rejected styles from past seasons. It’s just not the same experience at all.
I walked into a room today where a TV was on, don’t know which channel or program, but the reporter was standing by some empty store shelves and talking about more shortages of toilet paper, Windex multi cleaner, Lysol, other stuff like that.
I am seeing that in more and more stores – the shelves WERE starting to return to normal in July/August but then it reversed again last month and seems to be getting worse. I am SO very tired of the political games being played with peoples’ lives and livelihoods and I hope and pray that there is a giant red tsunami of others who feel the same way!
just starting to replenish in Western NC….finally…and a couple of products I have been unable to find are supposed to be back on the shelves at the end of October….these are specialty food items, King Arthur 2 lb organic whole wheat flour and Go Veggie cheddar cheese slices…please don’t tell me this will not happen…desperate for the veggie cheddar…lactose intolerant here and this is the best sub for cheese,
Same here, store shelves are empty and I can’t find certain things. I don’t like what I am seeing.
Lanna – went to Costco today and they have started limiting toilet paper purchases again to one per customer….I can’t find Glad Press ‘n Seal anywhere!!! I love that product – way better than regular Saran Wrap…
No one has ever accurately explained why there was a TP shortage in the first place.
How many people’s first reaction to a possible deadly virus outbreak would be to buy up toilet paper??
We’ve had bad flu seasons in the past, H1N1, etc. but we still functioned on a normal basis, went upon our normal lives.
IMO, the only thing that makes sense was this shortage was manufactured to bring a panic and thus create an extreme seriousness to what should have been just a normal bad flu season.
IIRC, our host explained in some of the early supply chain hiccup articles about the fact that toilet paper is extremely bulky in terms of space per shipping truck. When other things are prioritized more, toilet paper May move to the end of the priority list for shippers.
The payroll tax holiday should be looked at as a driver here because people are either saving it or spending it. I believe most people understand that the payroll tac holiday will not be owed back to government no matter who wins.
Even so, it’s a zero interest loan at worse, so I expect a big retail quarter for 4th quarter.
Kudos to Trump for boasting his 3rd GDP figures with the payroll tax holiday that kicked in the final month of quarter. It appears to have paid off!
The Payroll Tax Holiday, is exactly that, a holiday.
Payroll taxes will be suspended for the 4th quarter but, at this point, will be doubled for the first quarter of next year. This administration is working to keep the suspension, but if that doesn’t happen it will merely be a delay in payroll taxes.
My company (and we are several thousand employees) is not reducing the withholding at this time, a good idea IMO, If the holiday becomes a forgiveness people will be able to take a reduction in their taxes come April, but if it remains as is, they won’t be double taxed next year.
Just so my fellow treepers know, I am totally fine with cash for a Christmas gift. ?? ?
lol lol
But there is a shortage of coins///
haven’t gone crazy shopping in never.
My grown kids get a phone call and an invite for a great dinner. My friends and brother the same thing.
We don’t do presents for anyone and no one buys for us. What we do… is throughout the year is if someone needs help (the kids) or just for a surprise we send a gift card.
Not obligated to gift anything because “Christmas” but share the gift of Christ through out the year. We all know each other and pay attention to one another’s little loves and joys in their lives. So if we find something that inspires that then we will purchase that little “thing” and mail it or just save it and give it when we see that person.
It seems that small businesses could benefit from the inventory shortage if they are allowed to open….
There is a huge void of bicycle inventory.
Today the amount of liquidity in the Money supply M1, M2 is just massive. Huge.
5395 USD Billion in August of 2020 M1
5,518.2 Yesterday.
M2 approaches 19 TRILLION
Housing starts very strong and people do not sell a house and put all the money in the next house.
There are millions in Blue states in lockdown who dread Christmas.
yeh i started looking in july at getting a bicycle for outdoor rides….NOPE! store shelves were bare– a lost still are. same for just about every single item you’d use to make a home gym setup. can’t find anything. dumbells, benches, racks, plates…smh.
fwiw, peloton stock was in the mid $30 range back in march. yesterday it closed at $131.33
We are blessed at the H.R. household. The kids are doing very well financially. There is nothing they need that we can afford.
Same for the Mrs. and me. For example, I’ve always had a hankering for a vintage Mercedes Gullwing 300SL and the Mrs. was eyeing that 106 carat D flawless diamond that went for $38 million just recently. We ain’t gettin’ ’em ?
Yup. There’s nothing we need or want that anyone can afford to buy for us.
We already have the most priceless gift of all that we wake up to every day of the year, and not just on Christmas; a close family that loves one another. So about 8 or 10 years ago we just gave up on everyone giving each other ‘stuff’. Everyone had enough ‘stuff’.
Not much help for the retailers, but it’s a nice place to be, and Christmas shopping is always done ?
Masks and hand sanitizer will make a nice gift. Deep discounts and BOGO free in many stores where I live!
Great economic news; as expected. It will also ultimately result in increased tax revenues and all without raising taxes.
Biden promises to raise corporate taxes, which means he intends to raise my taxes and your taxes. Corporations treat taxes as a cost of business, which is added onto the price of goods and services offered for sale.
Tax the rich? Riiiight … except that they have accountants and lawyers to eliminate much of their tax burdens.
The end result? You, my friend, get stuck with the tab … end of the line … no one to pass the costs onto … you’re stuck without accountants or lawyers there to bail you out.
The other side of the coin … cutting taxes, as Trump proposes. For the corporations and the rich the cuts are a minor matter. But for you, dear friend, you realize a much bigger benefit … so much so that you can actually let your wife head on out on an insane shopping trip. And as they say, happy wife, happy life.
Raise taxes, says Biden. And why not … he gets those cuts from all those under the table payouts from Ukraine, China, et al … and no one’s any wiser, since there is no media to question him.
I buy gifts all year long whenever I see something that I know will be welcomed. It’s a leisurely pace and I can get the best prices, there is no hurry. So, by the Holidays I’m done with the “basic” shopping and only engage in discretionary spending.
My wife says we have some money, got the go ahead to start looking for a Honda Civic Type R. Likely one of the very few over 60 with such a biwing’d car. If only it had a Talladega wing….
How is it that a guy that drove Toys R us/Babies R us out of business is a guru??