Third Quarter GDP +1.9%, Main Street Consumer Spending Way Up, Goods: +$64B, Services +$36B, Disposable Income +4.5%…

Wait,… what? Who cancelled the recession?

Remember when the financial media and democrats were assuring everyone the U.S. economy was g.u.a.r.a.n.t.e.e.d to enter a recessionary phase? Well, apparently MAGA Trump cancelled it… with the help of millions of U.S. middle-class workers who are spending their wage increases, bigly.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the third quarter (Q3) GDP growth estimate today, and the overall Q3 GDP growth is +1.9 percent. However, behind the economic growth stats the scale of U.S. Main Street strength is the real story.

[BEA pdf link – table 3]

Main Street consumer spending was up $64 billion on goods and $36 billion on services. As those who follow MAGAnomics closely will remember, the Main Street economy is founded upon middle-class spending. Strong jobs, wage growth, low taxes, low inflation, and low energy costs, means more disposable income.  Disposable income grew 4.5% in the third quarter.

The U.S. economy is strong because approximately 80% of everything produced inside our economy is consumed inside our economy. As long as the underlying jobs market stays strong, consumer spending leads to self-fulfilling economic expansion. Main Street is doing very well.

The weakness is Wall Street investment into expanded production of goods in the U.S.

For 30+ years Wall Street has been investing overseas for production of goods; and with that process U.S. jobs were lost. President Trump has positioned the best return on production investment as the U.S.  Tariffs on China and the EU bolster that approach.

The key to reignite domestic investment is to pass the USMCA trade agreement which will provide certainty and allow corporate CFO’s to calculate Total Cost of Production (TCP). Once TCP can be calculated within the 5-year and 10-year rolling business plans, manufacturers will be able to determine specifics of U.S. investment; and/or retraction from Asian investment.

Unfortunately, Nancy Pelosi knows the USMCA ratification is the key corporate investors are looking toward. As a result, and with the intent to keep the Trump economy as favorable as possible for her 2020 ambitions, Pelosi is stalling the passage of USMCA.

China and the EU continue to struggle as the U.S. economy remains strong.   China and the EU devaluing their currency is driving up the value of the dollar, and dropping the import cost of goods.  As a result, despite the tariffs, the U.S. continues to import deflation (lower prices of imports).  Domestic production is healthy and inventories are turning.

The negative ‘spin’ from Reuters:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected in the third quarter as a further contraction in business investment was offset by resilient consumer spending, further allaying financial market fears of a recession.

The Commerce Department’s report on Wednesday was, however, unlikely to discourage the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again amid lingering threats to the longest expansion on record from uncertainty over trade policy, slowing global growth and Britain’s imminent departure from the European Union.

The Trump administration’s trade war with China has eroded business confidence, contributing to the second straight quarterly contraction in business investment. The fading stimulus from last year’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package is also sapping momentum from the expansion, now in its 11th year. (read more)

Monetary policy from the FED cannot yet impact inflation.  Exactly as CTH predicted in 2016:

2016 […]  Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.

Think about these engines doing a turn about and beginning a rapid reverse.  GDP can, and in my opinion, will, expand quickly.  However, any interest rate hikes (monetary policy) intended to cool down that expansion -fearful of inflation- will take a long time to traverse the divide.

Additionally, inflation on durable goods will be insignificant – even as international trade agreements are renegotiated.  Why?  Simply because the originating nations of those products are going to go through the same type of economic detachment described above.

Those global manufacturing economies will first respond to any increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by driving their own productivity higher as an initial offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past two decades.  The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector remain focused on the pricing.

♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, will ultimately be minimal during this initial period; and expand more significantly as time progresses and off-shored manufacturing finds less and less ways to be productive.   Over time, durable good prices will increase – but it will come much later.

♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘may‘ indeed rise at a faster pace. However, it can be expected that U.S. wage rates will respond faster, naturally faster, than any monetary policy because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods becomes re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them.

The monetary policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal action and the domestic Main Street economy, will now work in our favor.  That is, in favor of the middle-class.

Within the aforementioned distance between “X” and “Y”, a result of three decades traveled by two divergent economic engines, is our new economic dimension….  (more)

 

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This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Big Government, Celebrations, Donald Trump, Economy, media bias, President Trump, propaganda, Taxes, Trade Deal, Transportation, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

134 Responses to Third Quarter GDP +1.9%, Main Street Consumer Spending Way Up, Goods: +$64B, Services +$36B, Disposable Income +4.5%…

  1. Deborah Fehr says:

    I love it when this happens. Wish it would be reported though. You wont see any of this good news out there…only the new phase of impeachment.

    Liked by 12 people

    • VoteAllIncumbantsOut says:

      Here’s some more great news,
      Because of the global economic slowdown the S&P will be making more highs because globally, the Dow has lost the lead position. Remember, Dow is international and S&P is domestic.

      But beware, we still have the left and never trumpers to deal with so we might see a low in November. Long term looks really nice.

      Liked by 8 people

      • FrankieZee says:

        And the Fed is going to reduce the rate by 1/4 of a point I think I heard today.

        Liked by 4 people

        • VoteAllIncumbantsOut says:

          Already done, did very well today in the markets.
          During the fed release, the S&P dropped to 3025 then climbed from there to 3049
          Normally I don’t trade until after fed release but today I could see divergence telling me it’s gonna be an up day.

          Like

      • wendy forward says:

        Cancel my subscription to the reeeecession.
        Send their credentials to the House of Detention.

        Liked by 4 people

    • suejeanne1 says:

      “those jobs aren’t coming back” – Barack Obama (I like to mention that quote whenever and wherever it might be germane to the conversation)

      Liked by 12 people

      • Hoop says:

        ” . . . Well how exactly are you going to do that? What are you going to do? There’s uh-uh no answer to it.” — B. Obama.

        Trump Adds 298,000 Jobs in First Month….. 🙂

        Liked by 1 person

    • stripmallgrackle says:

      Give Reuters some credit. At least they got ” further allaying financial market fears of a recession” into the first paragraph. Not worthy of a gold star, or even a red star, as the case may be, but still something.

      Liked by 1 person

    • docnova66 says:

      Deborah says “You wont see any of this good news out there…only the new phase of impeachment.”
      Sadly true. The only insights our water carrying media are capable of involves using bigger buckets.

      Like

  2. Bigly says:

    I pray the republicans find someone to sell USMCA to the public. Trump can’t do it all and it’s all the republicans should be selling

    While they impeach, we implore – tell Nancy to stop making up boogie man stories and pass 180000 jobs and + 1.5%GDP

    Liked by 13 people

    • 17CatsInTN says:

      You know what? I do not get why anyone would possibly think (or hope) Nancy and team would do ANYTHING to promote America or Americans. She is NEVER going to do that. Not ever, ever, ever, ever. She HATES us. She is COMPLETELY sold out to our enemies. There is NO hope with these traitors. None whatsoever.

      Our hope lies with our President and whoever aligns with his policies. That’s it. THOSE are the people we need to get behind. Though they are few in number–indeed, our President mostly seems to stand alone–they are mighty and they are single handedly changing the course of human events. Thank God Almighty.

      Ok, off my soapbox now.

      Liked by 19 people

      • Cisco says:

        Absolutely, positively spot on 17Catsin!
        👍🌟🌟🌟🌟👍
        🇺🇸MMXX🇺🇸

        Liked by 2 people

      • Someone in another thread (BKR or Dutch perhaps) stated SFNan and the Uniparty don’t necessarily hate us as much as they love the power and will do anything to keep it.

        Is it possible we are getting into another outrage trap as SD describes by thinking this way 17cats? I think it is more productive to speak about making them powerless, imps crying in the corner of their bedrooms whilst hugging their suicide method of choice.

        Liked by 2 people

        • 17CatsInTN says:

          I am tired of saying nice nice about these evil, evil people. They HATE us. There are no other words to describe their deliberate intent to screw you and me over to gain that POWER and financial lucre they are so fond of. Maybe 40 years ago they still had some scintilla of decency in their warped souls, but that is long, long, long gone. They have truly sold their souls to the devil and there is nothing but evil intent there.

          Make no mistake, they hate us. All of us. Mainly because it us mere mortals who stand in their way because we got past all of their fraud, schemes, manipulations and lies to put the one man capable of stopping them in their tracks in the White House.

          Liked by 11 people

          • zorrorides says:

            Seen the black/white meme picture of tough-guy Trump?

            “They’re not out to get me.
            They want to get you.
            I’m just in the way.”

            They will do anything to ruin Trump before he can topple their corrupt global system.
            The point of the corrupt global system is that it hates you. Once you average Americans are brought down never to rise, then nothing they know will challenge them, ever.

            (Of course, they don’t know Jesus, or the ending of this time in the book.)

            Liked by 3 people

        • john says:

          I think Hillary calling us deplorables and Stroczks comments about WalMart shoppers pretty much debunks your theory that this is simply about money and power without a deep hatred for Americans, FF33.

          Liked by 3 people

      • This woman sold her soul to the Chinks…NO TWO WAY ABOUT IT!!! They are paying for the Lawfare nonsense like it was going to make a difference. It doesn’t!@@@@

        Liked by 7 people

        • TheLastDemocrat says:

          Wow, ED – are you still upset we brought them over to build the railroad?

          Like

        • As I was reading your comment, ED50, I was thinking how nice it was to be able to feel this comfortable in the Tree House, that we didn’t have to self-censure every word that we write.

          There are Chinks, Nips, Gooks, and Ornamentals– and it doesn’t mean that I dislike people who originated in Eastern Asia. It’s just a way to keep them straight… And assuredly, Asians have descriptive names for people like us, whose eyes don’t slant. None of the descriptions have anything to do with hate.

          More importantly, though, I agree with your comment. Xi can buy SanFranNan and Lawfare, but it’s pointless– it won’t achieve what they hoped.

          KAG2020.

          Liked by 2 people

        • sturmudgeon says:

          eagle: I believe you could have used a name/names other than “Chinks” in your post. I am personally involved with several Chinese-born individuals who would not care to be included in your rather ‘general’, derogatory, description.

          Like

          • WEEEELLLL NOW…BLESS YOUR PEA-PICKIN’ HEART!!!!!!!

            Better yet, why don’t you go and see LD and see if you two can sniff each other!!!!!

            There is some god-awful smell coming from you two!!!

            Like

      • Dutchman says:

        17cats,
        Jumping on the soapbox you just vacated, long enough to say “You could replace Nancy and team, with Mitch and team, and your sentence would be just as accurate.

        To suggest, as Bigly did above, that Republicons are going to ‘find someone to sell USMCA’ is DREAMING. Republicons are loathe to give PDJT a win, just as much as Democrats. Uniparty. They are the SAME, only difference is, oddly enough, the Democrats are honest and open in their hatred, disdain and contempt of PDJT and us Deplorables.

        The Republicons LIE, and pretend to be ‘on our side’ while picking our pockets. The Dems at least are honest enough to come at us with a brick upside the head, and try to KILL us, so they can steal our money.

        Distinction without a difference?
        Dunno, again irony the,Dem approach at least has more honor.

        Liked by 6 people

    • Perot Conservative says:

      It would help if POTUS pushed it more.

      He seems more obsessed with the Witch hunt and the drama of the day. Unless he wants this as a club for 2020.

      Like

      • Dekester says:

        Really..24/7 attacks on his character, integrity, and honesty. I am surprised he is this restrained. Maybe if your courageous 😏 Republican Senate asses would support him, he could ease off a little.

        Folks get the economy. “I was in the States” last night, and again early this morning.

        The old GMC truck and the Honda Fit now have full tanks. The combined savings was approx $40.00 U.S. over our cost here in British Columbia.

        The small border town is buzzing.

        Folks are always suggesting what PDJT should do or not do.

        I enjoy the lessons he gives in patience, strength, love and loyalty, and when required decisiveness and courage.

        God bless PDJT

        Liked by 24 people

        • MaineCoon says:

          Thanks for boosting our economy Dekester! I too enjoy POTUS’ lessons and don’t presume to be his teacher.

          Liked by 3 people

          • Dekester says:

            Cheers MC,

            Our entire family are PDJT supporters.

            Truth be told though, our family saves nearly $2000.00 U.S on gasoline purchases alone.

            That is with a weak $Can.

            Drinkers and smokers save even more, as customs no longer care if a Canadian brings over a six pack, bottle of wine,smokes, milk or cheese.

            The gas stations, and local dairies retail outlet are always super busy.

            God bless PDJT

            Liked by 1 person

        • Kate says:

          Wow Dexter, you are more American than many Washintonians in the area, thank you for your support for our great President Trump, I applaud you.

          Liked by 1 person

      • He addresses the attacks ie LIES, as he should.

        He is up against a massive machine of fraud, corruption and slander.

        I hardly consider that ‘obsessed’

        He has every right to fight back, don’t know anyone else that could do his job!

        Do you?

        Liked by 12 people

        • shevee says:

          Absolutely right! Trump takes in-coming every hour of every day from numerous fronts — media, academia, dimms, Rinos/never-Trumpers, etc., with very few advocates sticking up for him publicly. He must be super-human for no normal man/woman/whatever could withstand all of these vicious attacks–and want four more years of it!

          Liked by 1 person

      • Thinker says:

        I live in the Deep South. All Republican candidates down here are campaigning on supporting Donald Trump and his vision– economy, immigration, 2nd amendment rights. But I don’t see many Republicans in Congress supporting the same values. It would be great if all Republicans in Congress would do some commercials in support of USMCA, how good it would be for American jobs, and just who is holding up the vote and why. Republicans need to enlighten Americans.

        Liked by 4 people

    • LBB says:

      Two weeks ago , AMLO wrote Pelosi a letter (hand delivered to Richard Neal) urging her to pass USMCA asap. I was hoping having another party prod her would help. D’s will hold up as long as they can get away with it whether our citizens are for it or not.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Deborah Fehr says:

        I’m sure our ass hole PM is working with her. We still havent decided how the Govt will run now that it is minority. I’m sure anything even remotely conservative will be held up, to make the popular vote majority pay for daring to vote conservative.

        Liked by 3 people

    • Bert Darrell says:

      Bigly: the USMCA does not need to be sold or promoted to anyone anymore. Executives, union bosses, union members, and blue- as well as white-collar workers are all behind it. It is the do-nothing D-Rats that are sabotaging the country to serve their own despicable craving for power and ill-gained money. Pay-to-play is the only money-making process that members of the Pelosi-Schumer criminal gang understand. They’ve become filthy rich by it and won’t relent until they are replaced by the voters or sent to prison.

      Liked by 4 people

      • Dutchman says:

        Bert;
        I notice how, in comparison the McConnell/McCarthy gang are all paupers, from missing out on the pay/play. /S

        The Republicons are EVERY BIT as corrupt, and filthy rich as Pelosi/Schumer ‘side’, in cahoots actually, charging bribes to vote to support foriegn aid, meddling in and controlling foriegn policy and IC, and generally making a mess of everything.

        What my Dear old Dad called
        “Reverse Midas touch”; EVERYTHING they touch, turns to sh*t!”

        Gang of 8, SSIC are the heart of the ongoing coup, and the heart of whats gone wrong with our country, andRepublicons are the heart of THAT.

        Liked by 1 person

    • stripmallgrackle says:

      Someone with knowledge of Canadian federal politics, please. Does minority/coalition status for Sparkle Socks’ government make it more difficult for him to delay ratification of USMCA?

      Like

      • Dekester says:

        Don’t know, my guess is more difficult. However as Treepers know. Like Obama, sparkle socks is indebted to Soros and the Obama machine.

        He takes his orders from them..

        Liked by 2 people

    • Robert Smith says:

      Mike Rowe?

      Liked by 1 person

    • Moe Grimm says:

      Ain’t gonna’ happen. “Re-publikans” can’t sell matches in Siberia. Do you believe McCarthy is anything more than a clone of the useless feckless Ryan who presided over the loss of the “house” after a step x step lesson in something other than losing after PDT showed them something they’d never done before – WIN. Which he demonstrated step x step to every one of them Michelle McConnelle included. Do any of YOU believe McCarthy had any (ANY) plan to find, facilitate, and support winning field campaigns of worthy candidates to replace the many again resigning as they did for the last and most critical midterm in American history. It went exactly as “planned” by Ryan et al – THEY LOST. That spectacle yielded great results, no? Of course with the assist of a general morbidly ignorant and often profoundly misinformed electorate. Do you think any who resigned in 2018 gave a fiddlin’ fck what creeps would take their chairs, and did? Then as now they could care LESS just like McCarthy who’s Zero more than clone of the sweaty hand weak coward Ryan. RYAN who stood by and did NOTHING as this Citizen Statesman President my wife and I waited all our lives for fights the battle of his very life – for us. Every Day.

      And finally, do you believe even IF the re-cucks somehow manage to stumble bum back the “house” they’d do any-thing other than again nothing at all…. exactly as they have since PDT’s nomination in the spring of 2016? They did however do a fine job watching their “colleagues across the aisle” ready to run a shiv into and up this President’s spine 24x7x365. A President who has effected more for the strength and long term viability of this Country than EVERY SINGLE ONE OF ONE OF THE PREVIOUS 44 OF THEM ALONE OR ADDED TOGETHER > > > IN. LESS. THAN. THREE (3). YEARS. Every Day a new abomination, who knows but God how many MORE abortions, more blasphemies, more Lies, more deceit, more revelations of past and current Treason. And rampant corruption. Too many here need to wake UP and realize the Party of Dead Elephants is precisely that. Dead. There is a reckoning coming which will catch many by absolute surprise in a quickly unfolding heretofore unprecedented schit storm the likes of which they ever dreamed — let alone prepared for. There is no voting our way out of this. We’ve sat for too long the co-opting of our Country, media, K – “higher ed”, academia, our Founders exquisitely sorted institutions as first presented in The New York aka Federalist Papers. There is a reckoning coming if in fact the will exists at all. As I survey the current landscape I ask myself “THIS is what I have to fight with”? Either way, there’s no voting our way out of what the sodomite has wrought. Not this time. There’s many in my region who want to show them what a real riot looks like.

      Like

  3. lurker2 says:

    Forbes has a new article listing the countries “on the bring of recession going into 2020”. Noticeably absent: U.S. Thank you President Trump!

    Liked by 12 people

  4. Ausonius says:

    VOTE DEMOCRAT AND BRING BACK THE GOOD OLD DAYS!!!

    Remember our president kowtowing before foreign potentates? Remember managing the long, slow decline of America into irrelevance, a decline we deserved because of our racism, our slavery, our pollution, our arrogance? Remember jobs never coming back to America, so get used to it and become a computer scientist? Remember how we led the world from behind, like in 17th place and on our way to 39th position?

    DON’T YOU WANT ALL OF THAT BACK? 🙂

    Liked by 13 people

  5. Kerry Gimbel says:

    This is what happens when you have a strong middle class. Socialist countries dont have a middle class. And of course, commie countries just have the poor, except at the very top

    Liked by 5 people

    • WVPatriot says:

      Kerry Gimbel…

      Exactly:

      Socialism:

      ARISTOCRACY

      serfdom

      Two tiers of social structure.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      Exactly, K.G.
      In order to destroy America, and American exceptionalism, A) undermine the Constitution and Rule of Law B) destroy the large, vibrant middle class.

      Gee, coincidence how all the policies ENACTED (deeds, not words) by both Republicon and Democrat admins and Congress, seem to be designed to do just that?

      Liked by 3 people

    • stripmallgrackle says:

      Another reason to hate on American Capitalism. It was never supposed to create a strong middle class. St. Karl said so. Maybe this is the true definition of existential despair.

      Liked by 1 person

  6. Akindole says:

    Also, Housing…up.
    4% YOY ain’t nuthin’ to laugh at.

    Who would buy a house when that nasty recession is upon us, and they are likely to lose their jobs? ANS: The people that aren’t Grubber’d.

    “A Trump Chicken(TM) in every pot”
    We win.

    Liked by 3 people

  7. Perot Conservative says:

    GM and Boeing also a drag on GDP.

    The White House estimates the Boeing drag on GDP was .4%, other economists say the drag was .25%.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. trapper says:

    The democrats keep trying to throw a recession, but no one shows up.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Deborah Fehr says:

      until I understood what PDT was saying, I didnt understand that there is a difference between Wall street and Main Street. Then a light came on, and I understood what he was saying.
      Most people listening to the news only hear about Wall street. They think the sky is falling, but don’t worry little person…the Wall street only applies to the really big guys, and yes they are all hurting, because they sold USA to China. What you should be looking at is Main street, where the little people hang out in their jobs, working and making a living…that’s where you need to look.
      Let the likes of Biden, Obama, Clinton worry about wall street.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Dutchman says:

      Suppose they gave a recession, and nobody came? Lovin it.

      Like

  9. Ma McGriz says:

    Pelosi’s stalling of the USMCA trade agreement is as treacherous as it gets.

    The woman’s evil deeds seem to grow by the hour.

    When will we be rid of this crone?

    Liked by 9 people

  10. :-) says:

    From one of my favorite stock market analysts:

    Longtime readers here know that I am an early supporter and big fan of the President. This guy stepped away from the ultimate billionaire lifestyle to take a thankless and extremely difficult job for NO PAY! …and never in the history of this Republic has anyone been more abused and mistreated than him. Yet, each day he gets up and continues to try to make this a better country by making pro-American policy decisions and striking deals that truly improve the lives of average Americans.

    It should be clear to most by now that the our government, the dinosaur media, and the entertainment industry have all been thoroughly compromised by anti-American entities. One doesn’t have to venture far to connect the dots and end up staring straight at the Communist Chinese as the likely top-level protagonists.

    In a quote often attributed to Joseph Stalin “When it comes time to hang the capitalists, they will vie with each other for the rope contract.” So true! …and that is the path we have been on for several decades! However, along comes an amazing man who has bravely confronted the massive scheme to sell out the country–and he threatens to not only cut off the cash flow for bribes (largely by initiating a brilliant tariff strategy that the woefully corrupt US Congress cannot touch) but also threatens to expose the very network of traitors who have been selling out America.

    The Globalist Socialists, who are all motivated by money at their sinister greedy cores, have been parasitically feeding off of the United States for decades. Their plan was to drain the host of life completely and then swoop in with their glorious (for them and certainly NOT for us) ‘New World Order’ that Bush the Elder started to usher in during his installment after the last ‘accidental President’ and outsider, Ronald Reagan. They successfully installed an uninterrupted succession of stooges and all was going exactly to plan until Donald Trump stepped in and beat the most hatable candidate the NWO could possibly put forward. It was her hubris, arrogance, and incessant bullying that enabled Trump to be miraculously elected against a completely stacked deck.

    The election of 2016 has sent shock waves through the evil empire and they have spared no effort in activating (and ultimately exposing) their bought and paid for agents and assets. So many ‘conservative’ pundits and politicians have had the mask ripped right off of them as their masters demand that they stop Trump. NONE of it is working. President Trump continues to out maneuver and out-smart them. The most recent example is the middle-east strategy that has extracted US troops, killed the top ISIS threats, taken the oil, and left the Russians holding the bag standing between ancient and never-ending Sunni/Shia warfare stupidity. For example, how ridiculous do those concerned and outraged ‘Republican’ critics from last week look now after President Trump pulled off his latest brilliant maneuver?

    The globalists have a real conundrum when it comes to dealing with President Trump. They have assumed control of many if not most multi-national corporations often via lax mergers and acquisitions accommodated by corrupt public officials. The wildly successful tariff implementations by President Trump have totally reversed their plan of siphoning wealth away from the US into a global rush to invest back into the US. These corporations are in essence trapped into repatriating capital investment back into the US and away from China predominantly. The more China bleeds jobs and precious hard capital, the less able they are to buy influence around the world…and also, the more hostile average Chinese citizens will become toward the current communist regime as living conditions deteriorate and prospects diminish.

    As China and other hostile economies contract they are forced to weaken their currency in an attempt to offset the tariff cost to stay competitive in trade volume. In essence, Trump has brilliantly exported inflation to the enemy economies and America is adeptly side-stepping what ‘leading economists’ said would be rampant price inflation as those import tariffs are enacted. To the chagrin of his enemies, his tariff policies are proving to be wildly successful, and to put it bluntly, America’s primary nemesis, China, is totally screwed.

    Ironically, the global socialists would love nothing more than to crash the American economy to weaken Trump’s support, which is his number one triumph–but they can’t! There is currently no other place for capital to flow to seek a better return, so try as they might–they just can’t make this incredible economy sink without simultaneously hurting themselves.

    It is my opinion that the sideways action we have seen for the past many months has been a mass paralysis by major market participants as everyone waits to see if any of the various ridiculous charades employed by an increasingly desperate opposition will stick. This could be a race by them to try to remove president Trump (by any means possible) before the good guys regain control of the DOJ, FBI and CIA and the heinous acts of selling out America are exposed. The ones screaming the loudest against Trump are likely the ones with the most to lose when the facts eventually come out about the massive plot to take down America.

    As I said in a post here long ago when I predicted Trump would be elected President shortly after he declared his candidacy… this administration was never going to be dull, and the immense drama has certainly not disappointed thus far!

    One last thought here… I was talking to a friend yesterday who was disturbed about the ridiculous tenor and hysteria of the ‘news and noise’ and I remembered something that a historian told me at Colonial Williamsburg many years ago… He said that over time things really haven’t changed all that much and never really do. At the time of the American Revolution, for example, the public opinion was about 40% loyalists and 40% rebels (or patriots depending on your perspective). That left 20% undecided.

    Today, I think things are about the same. There are 40% on one side and 40% on the other whose opinions and positions are fixed and absolutely unchangeable. What is left are the incredibly insipid dolts ‘in the middle‘. The battle we see playing out now in the media is not intended for the 80% who have already decided their loyalties–but rather, this is an all-out attempt to sway the 20% and if possible, to discourage turnout from the ‘wrong (in their opinion)’ 40%. So relax, sit back and enjoy the show. It’s all pretty darned entertaining when viewed from the proper perspective. Just be sure to show up and vote when the time comes!

    It is going to absolutely kill the Trump haters to see the new all-time highs in the market today on the news. The globalists hate it too because it further strengthens the power of their nemesis, but ultimately they love money more than ideology and President Trump is in the process of bringing them back around to the right side with the proper carrot. As a businessman and self-made billionaire, he truly understands how this works. Donald Trump has always given prior enemies every opportunity to switch sides, but if they still persist–>then more often than not they will end up a bit like the ISIS dude in the tunnel in Syria last weekend… ripped to shreds and self-immolated by his own hand! It’s really a thing of brilliance to behold, and the world has never seen anything quite like it.

    Liked by 21 people

    • FL_GUY says:

      Great essay! Thanks for posting it.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Patrick Healy says:

      Great article just about says it all. Are you related to Sundance?

      Liked by 2 people

    • Bill says:

      Just remember – when all the chicken little sky is falling screams start dying down, what does our VSG do? he stirs them up, it only takes a tweet or two.
      From a military perspective, you know when you are over a high value target, because the flack gets very intense.
      So lets all trust our VSGPOTUS Donald J Trump as he lures the enemy into a weakness he has projected, that is really his well defended strength, to destroy them.

      This circus that thinks they have POTUS surrounded, and are moving in for the kill.
      Our Donald must be thinking like General Patton when surrounded by enemy forces, “Poor Bastards”. As he laughs off their opening volley (their kill shots) like a little rain off the back of a duck.

      This clown show is going to be funnier than the 3 Stooges…. on steroids…

      Get your popcorn and draw up the recliners to watch this show. It is just getting started.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Dutchman says:

        When your surrounded by your enemies, you hardly need to aim!
        Like shooting fish in a barrel.

        Poor bastards indeed. They have him surrounded, so he has them right where he wants them!

        EXCELLENT comment by ;-), above, great summary of events, and my view of ‘sit back and enjoy the ride, as PDJT and God will prevail in the end.

        I have missed ;-)’s posts in the past, but I’ll be keeping an eye out for that Icon from now on!

        Liked by 2 people

    • RE: These corporations are in essence trapped into repatriating capital investment back into the US and away from China predominantly.

      • As China bleeds jobs and wages, globalists’ local prices must DROP
      …. along with resulting profitability.

      • As Trump Tariffs take root, China’s exports to the USA DROP
      … triggering price cuts to keep factories running
      … along with resulting profitability,

      • Then Chairman Xi goes Dragon by MANDATING Buy-Chinese-Brand, not Globalist
      … Imploding that Billion-person Chinese Market Potential that drew Globalists in
      … Forcing their factories to close
      … Triggering Bankruptcy Sales … to the Chinese-Brand competitors they created!

      Liked by 2 people

  11. dogsmaw says:

    Whoops, here comes another one from Louisiana…

    Liked by 10 people

    • MaineCoon says:

      FTA: Also participating in the event with several hundred attendees were Japanese Ambassador Shinsuke Sugiyama and Masafumi Nakada, president of Nippon Export and Investment Insurance, the export credit agency of Japan also known as NEXI.

      Liked by 1 person

  12. MAGADJT says:

    Need a strong media push by surrogates on media outlets to detail what NOT passing the USMCA is costing the country in terms of jobs, GDP, and wages. Also push that the votes are there to pass it if it is just brought for a vote. Put it in people’s minds that they are losing something because of the failure by Nancy to act.

    Liked by 2 people

  13. Carrie says:

    Wait, Cavuto knows if the economy improves, Democrats are done? He finally figured it out.. (it’s ok, I know we all know he’s still a globalist tool).

    Liked by 6 people

  14. Ken Maritch says:

    PDJT has so many accomplishments that positively affect the entire country. I would love to see TV and radio blanketed with this news.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. ristvan says:

    I just researched the Canadian ratification. USMCA was introduced to 42nd Parliament but not passed before this past Monday’s election. It has to be reintroduced into the new 43rd Parliament after it convenes. Although Trudeau has said he will appoint his Cabinet on Nov. 20, no date has been set to convene Parliament, although it will be fun AFTER Nov 20. Even if USMCA is a top order of business, it might be weeks or months after Parliament goes into session. So early next year most likely.

    in my opinion USMCA happens (or not, in which case plan B 19USC§2092 happens) next year. That PDJT has not yet initiated NAFTA§22.5 6 month termination means he has not yet put the gun to Pelosi’s head. My guess is he does that the day Canada ratifies. And as further evidence, there has been no pressure for the Senate to bring it up to vote yet either.

    Meanwhile, USMCA is exhibit 1 for branding the House as do nothing. Useful counter to peach foty fi and to help take back the House in 2020. Strategic USMCA patience is justified.

    Liked by 10 people

    • Dutchman says:

      Granted, any push by PDJT (to pass USMCA) strengthens the ‘resistance’, but I am not absolutely convinced PDJT really WANTS USMCA passed.

      Doesn’t like bi-lateral agreements, and can get a better deal by making seperate agreements with Mexico and Canada.

      For one thing, isn’t it possible to include in a deal with Mexico, provisions to have Mexico prevent transhipment of drugs and human smuggling, or automatic tariffs, in a seperate deal with Mexico?

      Also, Mexico having 30% of ‘our’ auto sector seems to stick in his craw.
      Also, he could punish Canada, and use them as an object lesson, for any other countries aligning with, and taking instructions from Obama/Pelosi.

      So, while getting USMCA passed WOULD ‘help’ our economy, having it NOT pass IS a tangible, easy way to point out how the ‘do nothing dems’ are hurting US, for their selfish ends.

      Seems like yet another ‘win/win’ for PDJT and us Deplorables. I am pretty sure Pelosi won’t budge on this, and NOTHING will move her.

      Liked by 2 people

      • zorrorides says:

        Hi Dutchman, I’ve been thinking on why VSGPT promoted this USMCA. Indeed, wouldn’t two bilateral deals be better for the USA?

        First, NAFTA is a three-way. Don’t make people enlarge their concepts all at once.
        Second, the USA has two next-door neighbors, Mexico and Canada. The US will be generous to our neighbors because we are good and we can afford it, not because those two countries deserve special treatment.

        That’s it, fellows. You’re not our neighbor and you can make a fair America-first deal with us, one to one. You don’t want a fair bilateral deal where America looks to our own needs, and you look to yours? That’s OK, we’ll go our separate ways. Good luck.

        Liked by 1 person

        • You’re spot on, Zorrorides. I think Dutchman just made a typing mistake when he wrote, “Doesn’t like bi-lateral agreements, and can get a better deal by making seperate(sic) agreements with Mexico and Canada.”

          I’m pretty sure he meant, “Doesn’t like TRI-lateral agreements…”

          Liked by 2 people

  16. Schmitty says:

    Still put me down for an Oct 20 2021 bottom in markets.. waiting to buy my home 3 months prior

    1 John 4:10

    Like

  17. A2 says:

    “Who cancelled the recession”?

    It took a holiday to Hong Kong

    And to_____ and to______……

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/28/hong-kong-in-recession-after-protests-deal-comprehensive-blow

    Liked by 2 people

  18. petey says:

    it was that pesky magic wand……again

    Liked by 4 people

  19. Rip Tide says:

    Cavuto’s a grade A dumbass!

    Liked by 5 people

  20. lurker2 says:

    I’m enjoy watching fake news media ignore the good news. They hate good news.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Ghost says:

    Observations From a Smaller Limb.

    Using current dollars:
    3rd quarter GDP: + 185.6B // +3.5%
    2nd Quarter GDP: +241.4B //+ 4.7%

    Constant dollar: Inflation adjusted formal 1947 to 2018:

    Annualized GDP: 21.53 Trillion.
    2016: 18.71 Trillion

    Adding 3 trillion GDP since 2016 is larger than the total GDP in 2018 for the U.K. Currently the 5th largest economy with a GDP of 2.8T

    Personal Savings:
    3rd Q : 1.34B // 8% rate
    2nd Q : 1.32B // 8.1% rate

    😎

    Liked by 4 people

  22. gnadfly says:

    CNBC still is prediction recession for over a year now. They’ve stopped painted scenarios other than “trade war. and tariffs.”

    Like

  23. surakvulcan says:

    The number I follow is real disposable personal income (per capita). Real means adjusted for inflation. According to the BEA report, that increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the 3rd quarter.

    This variable is an even better predictor of the election outcome than (real) GDP. Right now Trump’s re-election is looking very strong to me.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. A2 says:

    Sometimes the Universe says ,” nothing happens until something moves”

    US-China trade deal that’s not a trade deal.
    🤣🤣🤣
    “China does not want to buy a lot of products that people here don’t need or to buy something at a time when it is not in demand,” an official from a Chinese state-owned company explained.

    “ If U.S. agricultural products “enter China in a concentrated way, it might be hard for the domestic market to digest,” the Chinese official added.

    Oversupply of agricultural products in China would hit local prices really hard, he said, “and break the supply-demand balance”.

    Someone has a key to the pork locker.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agbuys/in-u-s-china-talks-beijings-refusal-to-spell-out-farm-buys-is-big-sticking-point-idUSKBN1X90BW

    CHILE CANCELS APEC SUMMIT IN SANTIAGO NEXT MONTH: PINERA

    ( I would post China’s economic data but they might cry, or call me a big bad meanie unreliable entity)

    Liked by 3 people

  25. Vegas Guy says:

    Wait a minute….wait a minute…We are in a recession. How do I know? Because I have been forced to stop spending…..That’s right. No more willy nilly spending for me.

    Oh wait…Duh…..After careful evaluation I noticed that I stopped spending because I actually have been able to buy EVERYTHING I needed or wanted since Trump became POTUS. There is really not so much that I desire to or need to spend on.

    ….AND I still have $$$$ in my pockets….I can still go out to dinner….I can still splurge on spur of the moment impluses…Go figure…..I am certain Dems will look at that & call it an “economic downturn” or “an economic adjustment”….They might say it is chump change in my wallet….I like to think of it more as “Trump Change”…..LOL

    Liked by 7 people

    • “Trump Change” HAA!
      I have SELDOM carried cash of any amount for more than a day or 2 for 20 years. Although it isn’t much, I have started moving it from my wallet to a sock drawer. I actually have CASH ON HAND.
      What a weird, wonderful world.
      My Never-Trumper son-in-law is making $14 per hour more than 3 years ago.
      I guess it really does rain on the fields of the good and Never-Trumpers

      Liked by 4 people

    • ADDgolfer says:

      Shhhh.
      Your excess may need to be retabulated, no one should have more $$ than they need, think of the children in those cages
      Said no one on these pages

      Liked by 4 people

  26. Doug Amos says:

    Canada lost 450 auto jobs yesterday. A provincial premier (Ontario) swears by USMCA. Trudeau publicly claims to be on board but knows the weatherbies hate anything that does not turn off the lights and shut down the heat. Interesting dilemma for the carbon freak. Meanwhile, impeachment continues to distract attention from all the criminal activity American politicians and their families have been engaged in around the world; nevertheless, every day more revelations pop up. Tick, tick, tick.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. MfM says:

    This is great news.

    Of course the first thing I saw was what about the Deficit? From some Never Trumpers.

    Like

  28. hokkoda says:

    “But, but, but, the YIELD CURVE!!! Aaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrggghhhhhh!”

    Most likely the United States of America will have a recession at some point in the future. Never, never, never cede the ground that recessions are bad and to be avoided at all costs. Recessions are a NECESSARY part of the business cycle. They remove waste and inefficiencies in the marketplace by phasing out old technologies in favor of new ones, requiring people to constantly upgrade their skills and stay sharp, and they eliminate all the “extras” that we clog up industry with during the good times. Yes, recessions can be painful at the individual level. But in the long run, recessions are good.

    To use a wild fire analogy. We have terrible fires in CA today because of the insane levels of forest “protection” which says that any tree cut down is a sin. What did CA get for their fear of harming even a single tree? Massive destruction.

    The same is true in the economy. Periodic recessions are important to prevent much more massive downturns later on. I’m glad GDP is up, I’m glad it is up more than expected, and I’m glad that but for a couple of companies really struggling, it would have been up another 0.3% or more. But in no way should we fear a “recession”. Never fall for the Progressives’ Book of Rules.

    Like

    • map says:

      No…this analogy is wrong. Recessions are largely caused by the Fed. The Fed follows the Phillips curve and measures inflation by “irrational exuberance” which it has to temper by increasing unemployment.
      Every recession that we have had since 1987 has been caused by the Fed. There is no natural process operating here.

      Like

      • hokkoda says:

        Economic recessions and depressions far predate the existence of the Federal Reserve. They are a natural part of the business cycle. Get an MBA man, I did.

        The Fed has *distorted* regular business cycles by mucking with interest rates to try and prevent them. What have we earned for our troubles since 1987? Progressively more destructive recessions with slower post-recession growth and recovery times. There have been about 50 recessions dating back to the end of the Revolutionary War and the Articles of Confederation.

        Like

        • Dutchman says:

          hokkada,
          I’m with you on this one. The Fed is like the forestry service, started in around 1915 (coincidence) IIRC, after a wildfire killed some campers, and Getties yellow journalism sensationalised how terrible it was.
          So, a ‘crises’ was created, that of coarse DEMANDED Federal intervention, and the policy to put out every forest fire, and smokey the bear.

          The Fed, by putting of recessions, makes them more severe, when they DO occur, much like putting off natural forest fires, creates the conditions for Superfires.

          Sometimes, you just gotta let it burn.

          Liked by 2 people

          • hokkoda says:

            Our country has been damaged more in the modern era by the phrase, “If it saves just one _______, it’s worth it,” than just about any war or natural disaster.

            Like

            • Dutchman says:

              Yeah, frankly almost as stupid as “We must make sure this NEVER happens, again.”
              Its like what we learned about test taking, before the age of ‘participation prizes’; “Absolutes” are almost always false.

              Liked by 1 person

              • hokkoda says:

                It’s utopian nonsense, and is designed to emotionally blackmail people into supporting policies they know are wrong. Like those “child separation” sob stories. Those crying children had a huge propaganda value…until we all started getting our acts in gear and calling it what is was: blackmail. Those children wouldn’t be there if not for their stupid parents breaking the law. Took awhile to overcome that and get people to think.

                I go right at “emotional blackmail” now. I don’t even try to understand the other point of view. I just tell friends and family on social media that it is okay if they want to feel that way, but I will not be blackmailed into a horrible vote just because the media is good at making them cry.

                Like

              • sturmudgeon says:

                Dutch.. EXCEPT!! In the instance of this ‘Coup’ attempt of our President. It MUST NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN.

                Like

                • Dutchman says:

                  Given the perfidy of human nature, and the passage of time, I would say “Never say never”.
                  However, my thinking is if the perpetrators lose (and so aren’t able to write history) not only THEY, but their IDEOLOGY will be so thoroughly discredited that no one will try it, again.

                  We need a TOTAL victory, in order for that to happen. A recognition this is so far beyond ‘politics’, and that this is an EXISTENTIAL conflict.

                  Two combatants enter the field of battle, only ONE leaves (alive).

                  There can be no ‘Deal’, no going along to get along, no compromise. PDJT recognises this, most of US treepers do. Not sure many in D.C. do, though. Even ‘white hats’ like Meadows and Jordan,…and, unsure how many Deplorables, who WILL vote for PDJT truly ‘get it’, but we will find out, before the end.

                  Like

    • Perot Conservative says:

      Please, just after 2020, or better even 2024.

      Liked by 1 person

      • hokkoda says:

        lol, good point, which is why the Lefties went insane in August hoping they could trigger a stock market panic and crash equity markets by screaming about the “yield curve inverting!”

        The tandem of that failing to take root plus the emergence of the Durham criminal probe in September is why we have impeachment today. The Democrats/Media is like a defeated boxer throwing haymakers at smoke.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Dutchman says:

          Impeachment today, was planned and initiated long before the factors you list.

          Nancy’s taking the gavel from Ryan was PLANNED, starting right after PDJT’S victory. And they began planning this new effort, with rule changes then.

          Liked by 1 person

          • hokkoda says:

            I’ve said since before the 2018 midterms that Ryan and the 40 RINOs threw the election to allow impeachment to proceed. In fact, back in 2015 and 2016 I predicted that Trump would get as much or more resistance from Republicans than from Democrats, and the GOP would fight his key initiatives (Healthcare, Immigration, Foreign Policy).

            They all expected Mueller to deliver the goods, but that was a train wreck. So, they had to come up with something else. When it became widely known that Durham’s probe was a criminal probe, they decided to latch onto the whistleblower report as their pretext to re-engage on the impeachment. I think they planned to do this after Jan 1st to to better time it with the election tho’. Durham forced their hand.

            These D.C. circus acts follow a certain weird internal logic where they have to “peg” it to something. They could put a bag of potato chips behind the microphone and leak “stunning” and “shocking” revelations which the media would dutifully report. But they needed a pretext to re-engage.

            Like

            • Dutchman says:

              I’m not sure Durhams alleged actions, along with his openly declaring it is a criminal investigation had any effect on timing.
              Certainly, its become very obvious that a fundamental part of the D.C. mindset, is prioritising spin over reality.
              It doesn’t matter what IS, only what we SAY it is; very Alice in Wonderland, and Pelosi plays the Red Queen, better than anyone.
              But yes, it is the Republicons who are most threatened by PDJT; How DARE he actually DO all the things THEY have been falsely promising to do, even had as planks in the Republican party platform, for YEARS, and thereby showing them up as being like the Blacksocks, like a boxer paid to take a dive, intentionall losing on EVERY key policy fight, while whitewashing all the scandals during Obamas admin., cause they were all in on ALL of them.

              Liked by 1 person

              • hokkoda says:

                It is what it is, right? I just happen to think the formal announcement of the criminal probe was about 6 weeks behind the actual, administrative, change. Once the IG released his report , and that report contained criminal referrals, and all those people named by the IG had a chance to read it, the “impeachment” crap when into overdrive. That’s why, for example, Trump disrupted it so easily with the transcript and why Schiff couldn’t get away with lying to Congress about what Trump said. They flipped the switch so fast that they didn’t have time to think it through and cover their tracks.

                Trump put to lie every GOP lie for the last decade. I have friends who think Trump is a disappointment, and I’m like, “How can you say that? We no longer live in a world where people have to just sit and ‘take it’ from the media. We no longer live in a world where we have to accept the GOP’s promises are true. We no longer live in a world where the institutions of government can be trusted by conservatives.”

                It’s scary stuff, but at least we know who our enemies are, and they are right out in front where we can see them. The media too…active participants in the coup not just useful idiots. That Lee Smith book just crucifies the key media players.

                I save the Red Queen name for Hillary. Pelosi is the Wicked Witch. hahaha

                Like

    • ADDgolfer says:

      I’m not fearing one, actually before retiring 2 yrs ago, never felt the effect of the downturns the past 30 yrs (HVAC business in Fla.)
      but…
      Because of the recession stigma, just hope it happens after Nov 2020, and when it does happen, I like who’s piloting the ship
      Optimistic the house purse will be in slightly more capable R hands

      Liked by 1 person

  29. dayallaxeded says:

    Wield that magic wand, VSGPDJT! Gonna need most winnamins!

    Liked by 1 person

  30. map says:

    USMCA is not the only problem. The Fed has been raising the federal funds rate since a month after Trump was elected. The Fed Funds rate and the prime rate have a 3%-point spread. We’ve seen upwards of a 1000% increase in the fed funds rate and the prime rate has doubled, which will affect investment.

    Like

  31. For Eyes says:

    The Fed is clueless. That’s a technical term. One Fed governor recently admitted they do not understand the strength in US money supply.

    The US spent 8 miserable years under Obama where no one had any confidence in anything. But a raging bull market began the very night of Trump’s election, and has rolled ahead since then.

    The Velocity of money has turned up following a very long downward slide.

    At the moment the single biggest impediment to even better days is the Fed. Rates are too low. This is the one thing I disagree with Trump about. Savers are getting crushed. Retirees crushed. That is a major drag on the economy.

    Liked by 1 person

  32. ADDgolfer says:

    “Q3 GDP growth is +1.9 percent”
    Is that all?
    How did Reagan get those 3%-4+% GDP months and numerous 3% quarters? I lived and worked in those good times. By all accounts these times should be better?

    I know obama got his few 3% month spikes because they immediately followed an <1% month or two, he never recorded a 3% quarter in his 8 yrs (the only president ever not to get one, I hear)
    Try and find a GDP graph on google that shows a vast difference between obama's and Trump's numbers

    I know economy voodoo has been noted in Sundance's past article articles, including GDP tabulations (I'd have been a sucky accountant)
    I can refresh my memory searching how the GDP is tabulated, I'd likely a difficult time finding what it takes to get back to 3%+ quarters (we haven't had one yet)

    Like

    • Perot Conservative says:

      One part is reducing imports, which was also a drag on GDP. Here is my guess.

      – gain .2 -.4 reducing imports
      – gain .3 when Boeing gets back on track
      – gain .1 – .2 from Fed lowering their rate
      ___________________

      Gain .6 -. 9 for a start.

      Liked by 1 person

  33. Perot Conservative says:

    Don’t forget, the last 2 years for a President are typically Lame Duck … and since USMCA is such a key component of America First … GET ER DONE!!

    200,000+ American jobs!
    75,000 auto jobs! (Hello, Michigan!)
    .5% or more GDP growth!
    Manufacturing jobs have a HUGE MULTIPLIER!
    Big boost to Mexico building a Middle Class!
    Drop the figure $16 an hour to a Mexican immigrant in America … they’ll tell you about $1.50 to $2.00 an hour for tough work, in the sun, is normal.

    Liked by 1 person

  34. littleanniefannie says:

    Nazi’s trying as hard as she can to tank the economy. Unfortunately for her, the economy is steady and her hands are shaky!

    Liked by 3 people

  35. Rynn69 says:

    We MUST WIN THE HOUSE BACK as well as retain PDJT and the Senate. We must get USMCA passed and stop the wasted time with this impeachment hustle.

    Excellent MAGAnomics update from SD once again. CTH cannot be beaten on this subject.

    Like

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