Analysis – President Trump and Vice Premier Liu He Announce “Phase One” Trade Agreement – Video

Lots of dragon-dancing with a very hungry panda.

President Trump, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin gathered with their Chinese counterparts in the Oval Office for a lengthy  announcement of “phase-one” of a U.S-China trade agreement.  Vice-Premier Liu He leads the Chinese delegation.  [No point sheet on USTR website yet]  According to the presser:

Phase One has reached ‘agreement in principle‘, and includes: Intellectual Property issues; Banking and Financial Services to include currency devaluation; and major agricultural purchases ($50 billion +).  There will be several phases, and each phase will have an individually tailored enforcement mechanism. [Note: this approach sounds similar to the ‘six sectors and stages’ USTR Lighthizer discussed in March 2019.]

The Phase One agreement details still have to be put on paper over the next five to six weeks.  The U.S. and China are hopeful to have ‘phase one‘ complete by December. In exchange for current AG purchase commitments, and as an act of good faith while phase-one is finalized, the U.S. will suspend the tariff rate increases scheduled to take effect on October 15th. The tariff increase from 25% to 30% has been ‘suspended‘.

The scheduled U.S. tariff increases for December are still planned; however, they will be assessed as part of the ongoing negotiations.  Meanwhile, touchy issues like tech company Hauwei, 5G, telecom and the Chinese firms on the U.S. blocked “entity list” (ie. trade ‘blacklist’) are not part of the discussions.  Those issues fall under U.S. National Security and will not be part of any ongoing trade negotiations.

[Video Below]

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Overall I wouldn’t read too much more into this than appears on the surface.

China needs to buy food.  There are a limited number of export markets that can generate the scale of agricultural imports that China demands.  A hungry Chinese people only make the issues in/around Hong Kong worse.   Pandas can become very aggressive when hungry….  China needs to buy food.

President Trump wants to sell food to help the U.S. farmers; mostly operating under BIG AG multinational contracts (ie. contract farming).   The scale of Chinese purchases is too significant to overlook….  So Trump trades the suspension of a 5% tariff to gain $50 billion in farm purchases.  That’s most of the visible picture on this deal.

That said…. as USTR Lighthizer has previously stated, the issues of consequence are going to be in the enforcement mechanisms.  An agreement on IP and Banking/Financial Services is great, but the part that matters is the enforcement mechanism.  I wouldn’t put too much faith in Phase-1 being successful until we see some indication that China will acquiesce to U.S. enforcement provisions.

If you say: “China will never comply with U.S. enforcement”… well, I wouldn’t disagree; nor would USTR Lighthizer… he’s admitted as such.  So is a deal really possible?  Too soon to know, and too few details.

Panda gets food. Farmers get sales.  That’s the only known takeaway so far.

All other pro -vs- con analysis (predictions and projections) are for domestic audiences, politics and stock market consumption.  I still think an actual deal is unlikely.

Right now we’ve got happy pandas and happy farmers…. everything else is TBD.

xi jinping letter to president trump(LINK)

This entry was posted in Big Government, China, Communist, Decepticons, Deep State, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2020, Hong Kong, Legislation, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US dept of agriculture, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

128 Responses to Analysis – President Trump and Vice Premier Liu He Announce “Phase One” Trade Agreement – Video

  1. Brian L says:

    Never trust a communist. Ever.

    Liked by 16 people

  2. Mo says:

    Just the facts Danno. Thanks Sundance

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Perot Conservative says:

    Phase 1 = A Bridge to USMCA

    And a Brexit / UK deal closer.

    Timing.

    Liked by 7 people

  4. litlbit2 says:

    It a start, winter ahead, as December 15. A few days before Christmas, the USA has leadership, We’ll see what happens”

    blessings for all! MAGA 2020 KAG

    Liked by 3 people

  5. Bogeyfree says:

    Gives PT a big talking point for tonight’s rally as he secured an order for our farmers that is 250%-300% bigger than ever before coming in at $40-$50 Billion.

    Plus he will Hammer home how in less than 24 hours from yesterday’s rally he has already penned the authority of Turkey sanctions to Mnuchin and Pompeo who have the ability to cripple Turkey’s economy if necessary by them exceeded the key points/limits PT has laid out.

    He also gets to say I have done the above without risking 1,000 of young men and women’s lives so there are other solutions to conflict other than America send troops.

    I also hope refers people to the report by OANN about the Ukraine investigation and the money that have documented flowing to “others”.

    Not bad for a day’s work that he does not get paid a penny for, I might add!

    Liked by 12 people

    • SAM-TruthFreedomLiberty says:

      He totally destroyed the Demonrat talking point that Trump is hurting the farmers.
      That was one, maybe the only, they have that goes beyond their rabid base.

      Liked by 1 person

    • stripmallgrackle says:

      So Pelosi could start bringing real bills to the floor for debate Monday, and start passing legislation, with the hope that democrats could have a record to run on when they open their convention next year. Or not.

      KAG 2020

      Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      This shows how great the Trump Doctrine of Economic Security is National Security is.

      That we can effect conflicts on the other side of the World, involving enemies who have been fighting for 100’s of years, WITHOUT putting a single one of our military in harms way, …AND not making them enemies of us by bombing the crap out of them, or invading for ‘regime change’.

      We just say “ah,ah,ah don’t do that, or we’ll cut off your allowance,…”.

      Much preferable way to deal with the world!

      Liked by 1 person

    • mugzey302 says:

      How does he sell crops that never got planted because of flooding, and a shortened growing season? I am concerned about food prices and availability in America.

      Like

  6. Katherine McCoun says:

    This More than DOUBLES 2016 ag exports to China!!! A HUGE win!!!!
    https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/infographic-us-agricultural-exports-china-2016

    Liked by 14 people

  7. Zephyrbreeze says:

    Sometimes, reality takes a long time for people to accept.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Shyster says:

    The real and only quid pro quo – farm sales for increased tariff forbearance!

    Like

  9. I don’t know the commenter’s name but he has posted several times how USMCA subverts our Constitution. I have not seen SD comment on his long explanation as to why. And I imagine if there were a slow news week, SD may delve into it. At this point it’s probably #12 on a list of 10 developing stories (with the sh@tshow we are seeing in the HOR).
    Is it possible we also don’t want a deal with Canada and Mexico, much as we do not want one with China?

    Like

    • sundance says:

      The premise is false. Fake news.

      Liked by 8 people

      • railer says:

        I recall that guy’s argument, and he asserted that these trade treaties are historically handled via the US Senate’s Constitutional obligation to pass them via a 2/3’s vote, and not just a majority vote in both bodies. That’s the piece of his argument that needs to be addressed, and thus it may not be fake news.

        I don’t trust anybody, and I really don’t trust the Uniparty when it veers away from the Constitution, as it today does as a matter of course. Obama declared war on Libya. Obama declared war on Syria. Obama tried to declare war in Ukraine. The Uniparty supported him in this, absent any Congressional action, which is why he knew he could get away with these unilateral declarations of war.

        These are just a few of the unconstitutional veers the Uniparty has taken in recent years, very consequential veers. How about we stick to the Constitution, and identify the places where we’re veering away from it? I applaud Trump’s move toward free AND fair trade, and the junking of these multilateral trade agreements, which are poisonous to this country and which the Uniparty has illegitimately slid through (and cashed in on, and Biden is just one of the many).

        Now that we’ve identified them as illegitimate and poisonous, and Trump’s working feverishly to mitigate the damage the Uniparty has done to us with them, we have to answer the global question: What IS the proper constitutional process to arrive at trade deals? What process can we put in place, or perhaps constitutionally reestablish, that stymies the globalists? It has to be proper process, because without it, the globalists and Uniparty will just bide their time ’til Trump’s gone and get back to business. Even Trump’s “enforcement” mechanisms can be dispensed with, by either administrative/bureaucratic action or Uniparty fiat. Remember, Trump’s only able to do what he’s doing because the Uniparty screwed up, and gave the presidency the power to do what Trump’s doing now. They’re planning on getting another globalist in the WH as soon as they can, to use those laws the way they originally intended, to poison us. I don’t believe these questions are fake news.

        Like

        • GB Bari says:

          I believe commenter “ristvan” has been quite articulate in comments under multiple articles wherein he (ristvan) debunks that assertion by explaining the few different kinds of agreements the US can enter into with foreign nations. Per my memory, according to ristvan the USMCA is NOT an agreement requiring 2/3 congressional approval, but rather by simple majority.

          I tried but apparently don’t know how to search for comments using keywords as opposed to articles.

          Like

          • railer says:

            Don’t know that any commenter has or can firmly debunk settled history, in which the US has treated trade treaties as treaties, with a 2/3’s Senate vote as a constitutional mandate. This newer Swamp mechanism isn’t in alignment with that settled history, and throws treaties into the administrative and bureaucratic arena, for direct Swamp manipulation after the fact.

            That’s the part of this that needs to be addressed, because The Swamp will manipulate whatever Trump comes up with, especially once they get their guy in the Oval. If it’s a treaty, the terms of the treaty become constitutional mandates. This is the reason Trump was able to throw out Obama’s Iran deal, which Obama executed with a pen and a phone… it wasn’t a treaty. But we won’t always have a Trump in the WH to do that.

            Like

      • Jackbeowulf says:

        No. I hope no ban for disagreement, but language smacks of CFR, council of foreign relations, WTO and IMF. As treaties go, still from the New World Order shelf. Any treaty that gives up nation rights, and stays with the NAU Agenda for the future is BAD.

        For the record, the USMCA is slightly better then NAFTA, but is still a One World Order/Club of Rome treaty. Also, if it doesn’t follow the US Constitution by voting on in Senate for 67 votes. Then is just a Globalist scam..IMO.

        RISTVAN or other lawyer should check language and the constitutional requirements and report back. Congressman McDonald warned about these type of treaties before he was killed in 1983. They are bad for the future generations, sell you bad NAFTA, replace with a new BAD update. Best would be cancel NAFTA, put in place only bilateral. Multi-nation is for the NORTH AMERICAN UNION in a NEW WORLD ORDER.

        Like

        • railer says:

          Agreed, treaties should be very simple affairs, bilateral only, and would be by definition if they were passed with a 2/3’s Senate vote. You’re not going to get sneaky multinational corporatist language into that thing, benefitting only the Big Club, if it has to pass that test, right out in the open.

          Very simple language. You open your trade barriers, China… or else. We’ll be monitoring flow of goods across the dock, both ways. Violate the terms, and the deal is off. A deal and treaty that every farmer and autoworker understands. Flowing from that, you have a political coalition forming that sticks together on the greater whole… what’s passing across those docks. It will be a Main Street coalition.

          It can be that simple, if we make it so, constitutionally mandated to be so.

          Like

  10. hokkoda says:

    The US is in the drivers seat here. The phase I piece sounds very much like a “Let’s see if the Chinese play us for suckers…” initial step to establish the ground rules for a larger agreement. If China can play by the rules, maybe that opens up the door for additional negotiations. The USA gets to put China on a short leash and if they screw up, the tariffs hammer gets dropped on them hard. The US gets $50B in soy bean purchases and gives up really nothing in return. We simply promise not to increase the tariffs…so we’re out really nothing in this deal.

    Trust but verify, as the Gipper once said.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Let them spend all their dollars on food. Follow that up by choking off most exports across the board. Chicoms will appeal, they will win, but 6 months of damage will have been done.
      Wash, rinse, repeat until their people rise up and get run over by tanks.
      Steve Kerr will then compare that to a school shooting and then the public can take aim at the NBA. The pittance of their revenue they are claiming comes from China is a lie. The arenas are half empty unless it’s a big game; ratings are poor; and somehow the salary cap continues to rise. Break China and you break the racist, hypocritical league.
      At least that’s what Don Sterling told me.

      Like

  11. railer says:

    Nice outline.

    We gave up nothing, other than postponing tariffs. They already know that Trump will slam down tariffs again, if they renig on us. He did it last time and he’ll do it again. China knows this. They may feel they need to buy time until the next time they renig, and put Trump to the test again. I suspect he’ll slam down fresh tariffs when they’re exposed again.

    I’m a bit worried that our food prices may rise here, if the exports go up rapidly, but we’ll see what happens.

    I’m still amazed that Trump opens up these important agreements to the world as he does. It’s unprecedented and the unscripted nature of it is fascinating. Trump is such a gracious host throughout.

    Liked by 3 people

    • GB Bari says:

      I’m a bit worried that our food prices may rise here, if the exports go up rapidly,

      Since Big Ag controls supply, it controls prices by exporting any excess that would otherwise, in a truly free market, cause prices to drop.

      Ref. Sundance Econ 101. 😉

      Liked by 1 person

      • railer says:

        Yes, I’ve read that here, but the shysters, hedgefunders and crooks are only dealing with increments. They manipulate bits and pieces. Now we’re talking about $50B, all of a sudden. The boa constrictor takes time to swallow that and digest it. As a chunk, that sum outmasses all of the moneychangers’ transaction chicanery. It’s a concern to me. I’m all for it, of course, but the last thing we need is a spike in inflation (which was absolutely flat in the recent report, “unexpectedly” falling at 0.0% when the expectation was +0.1%).

        Like

        • railer says:

          The good news is, this Winter and next Spring, the farmers may be gearing up to plant every square inch they can, which of itself will trigger significant economic growth heading into Trump’s reelection. If the orders are there from the Chinese, we’re good.

          These Chinese aren’t stupid. I think they know they’re checkmated, and our host is correct that they MUST buy our food in order to survive.

          Like

        • john says:

          Worry more about a blizzard with the harvest still in the fields.

          Like

        • Imagine POTUS regulating Ag Export Prices (aka Pharma) to require that American Citizens never pay more than the LOWEST EXPORT PRICE.

          🤔 Wow … making China use their Buying Power with Big Ag to REDUCE what Americans pay.

          Liked by 4 people

        • Dutchman says:

          Actually, I am not sure its been made clear what the time frame is, but PDJT is saying farmers gonna have to buy more land,…strongly implies the purchase orders aren’t going to be filled tomorrow.

          He said something about over 2 years, although its a longer term deal.

          I doubt it will have much immediate impact.

          Like

        • Dennis Leonard says:

          railer,correct me if I am wrong,but food is not figured in inflation,as well as energy prices.

          Like

          • railer says:

            I’m no expert, DL, and I too am confused about all the numbers thrown around re inflation. I like our host’s treatment of the numbers, publishing them by sector and commodity, while also publishing the topline number, which by itself can be confusing when they manipulate it as you mention. I like diving down into the microdata whenever I can, and analyzing “food” on its own, and energy, and steel, and medical care, etc.

            Like

      • Darklich123 says:

        Only when you don’t have a president who calls them all up and tells the multinational corporations to “knock it off, if you want to make bigger margins then charge other companies more not US citizens”
        I see prices falling honestly. But long term we need to break up the monopolies, duopolies, and trusts.

        Like

        • railer says:

          Amen, brother. If you want to drain the Swamp, you have to cut off their cash flow, and we all know where that’s coming from.

          Like

    • USTerminator says:

      The China goal is stop bleeding of their industrial supply chain at all cost. The Oct 15 tariff is for the $200B on industrial products and not consumer products, China is value industrial manufacture much, much more than consumer because that is where the high value added accommodate the China future. China will pay 1 time $50B for soybean purchase anytime to retain the industrial factory. With tariff goes from 25% to 30%, the supply chain would accelerate 25% to 100% and no currency devaluation can compensate for the loss.

      The second one is the financial services can be owned 100% without partner in China. Why would we want our capital goes investing in China? China needs dollars and now they will have an influx of Wall Street dollars flows into China to sustain China economy. If any money made then WS will enjoy. If they lose money in China then tax payers will need to bail them out again. We are short sight to see $50B purchase and let China regroup and fight another day.

      It is a sad day. I know why President wants to do this for his re-election but I think it will be a bad decision in the long run.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Notice how POTUS scheduled the Financial and Banking opportunities to take effect in the middle of 2020?

        Notice how none of the specific preconditions have been shared yet to authorize this to take place. 😉

        Liked by 2 people

      • railer says:

        We have to follow through post-Trump, that’s for sure. He’s blazing a trail, but the trail will become overgrown and impassable if the globalists have anything to say about it. They’ll have us in a Chinese bailout situation lickety split, as we had in Mexico and South America (and Korea and elsewhere) decades ago. “All profits private, and all losses socialist” is the moneychangers’ motto. We did it in 2008, too. McCain and Obama were in full alignment on that, too.

        Like

  12. “Right now we’ve got happy pandas and happy farmers…. everything else is TBD.”

    The US holds all the cards against China…save for one: disgruntled Midwest farmers in the run-up to 2020. What’s Kyle Bass’ oft-repeated fear despite our near-full hand? Political horse-trading on our side. I trust POTUS’ calculations. Even a non-politician like Trump must tack to irreducible political realities. For example, what has Xi furnished on the Bidens’ bad dealings (other big Uniparty miscreants in this theater just off-hand? Feinstein, McConnell/Chao, the Clintons, plus many more). That stack of dirty dossiers would be enough to deliver the final coup de grace on impeachment. Also, Chinese leverage with Iran.

    Trump’s made his money. He’s not building chits for a second follow-on career. This makes him the most trustworthy leader we’ve ever had in the role of negotiator. He’s not an attorney-grifter who’d jump at a paper accommodation in order to fluff his resume for subsequent monetization, post-public service. Maybe the Chinese are finally coming to terms with this most unconventional adversary. Trump’s resume moves backwards. After this, it’s retirement for him. Globalism is sedition. Trump’s also a genuine patriot who loves America. Who was the last President who loved America more than his own future prospects? Carter? It’s a very rare thing. That’s why the post-Trump era is almost impossible to contemplate, let alone look forward to.

    Yes, I trust Trump. However always trust and verify. TBD.

    Like

  13. Ghost says:

    Observations from a smaller limb.

    China:

    Let’s face trying to decipher what is actually going on economically in China is rather hard. If you read the press releases put out by the CCP and parroted in the world press things of course are always rather rosy.

    The question of when you dig how much is real? And did everybody get the memo? Therefore as you search you are actually looking for those things placed in public that disagree with the CCP party line headlines.

    The thing the CCP forgets is even though the western business propaganda organs fall in line and most are so damn lazy it is incredible that anyone would consider making an investment decision based on the information they put out. There are those among us who have the inclination to seek reality.

    China’s last release of Foreign Direct Investment Press release states a + 6.9% increase. Then add great financial returns. This of course is what was reported. This is what I found on their official website. In Yuan unless noted USD

    Number of Projects for Contracted Foreign Direct Investment, Accumulated growth rate.
    27.70B // -33%

    Number of Projects for Contracted Foreign Direct Investment, Equity joint Venture,Accumulated Growth Rate.
    6.47B // -4.6%

    Number of Projects for Contracted Foreign Direct Investment, Accumulated Growth Rate, Contractual Joint Venture, Accumulated Growth Rate.
    0.042 B // -45.5%

    Number of Projects for Contracted Foreign Direct Investment, Accumulated Growth Rate, Wholly foreign-owned enterprise, Accumulated Growth Rate.
    21.06B // -38.7%

    Number of Projects for Contracted Foreign Direct Investment, Accumulated Growth Rate, FDI shareholding inc., Accumulated Growth Rate.
    0.069B // -18.8%

    Value of Foreign Direct Investments Actually Utilized, Accumulated Growth Rate.
    89.26B // +3.2%

    Value of Foreign Direct Investments Actually Utilized, Accumulated Growth Rate.
    19.57B // -15%

    Value of Foreign Direct Investments Actually Utilized, Accumulated Growth Rate. (USD.)
    276B // -18.2%

    Value of Foreign Direct Investments Actually Utilized,Wholly Foreign -Owned Accumulated Growth Rate.
    67.26B // +6.8%

    Value of Foreign Direct Investments Actually Utilized,FDI Shareholding INC, Accumulated Growth Rate.
    4.84B // +77.8%

    Comments:
    The threat to remove them from U.S. trading markets if done is a kill shot. What little investment they can show is actually growth in those stocks. Want to talk about fleeing China or the restructuring of supply chains. This is IT.

    PDJT is right when he says they are in economic trouble here is the proof they have supplied. The useless media just spouts the party line. I have provided the link if you think it is worth the potential security risk, But I posted it all. I wonder if they monitor this site?

    http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

    😎

    Liked by 6 people

    • Robert Smith says:

      Thanks, great data.

      I’m pretty sure China wouldn’t be here and signing this if their economy wasn’t in dire trouble. All they did was kick the can down the road a few months. They intend to back out of commitments, but it is a losing game for them.

      Like

    • Dutchman says:

      Thank you, ghost!
      I see an awful lot of minus signs, there.

      And, the bigger they are, the harder they fall, so the idea that China’s size, in any way insulates them as SOME suggest, seems ludicrous to me.

      The frustration with all their phoney #’s, is that there is no way to detirmine how close they are, to collapse.

      Will THEY even know, since state owned enterprises have an incentive to,…well lie,…and the people they report to have an incentive to accept and pass the lie up the chain.

      Anyway, good job cutting through the b.s., as usual.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Doppler says:

      Thanks, Ghost. My instinct told me the reports that China’s only suffering was that their growth rate had dropped to the lowest level in years, disguised much more serious problems. Your analysis and facts are much appreciated.

      Like

    • Isman says:

      That is great data. That said, I think the Chinese leadership would have the country eating grass if they could see a Democrat in the White House in November 2020. This Phase One deal is confirmation that the impeachment of PDJT is unlikely and his reelection very likely.

      Liked by 1 person

  14. bullnuke says:

    So how does this panda love fest affect little rocket man?

    Like

    • railer says:

      Rocketman has to cease fire until Christmas or so. If Phase I goes well, maybe he’s out of the nuke and missile business for good.

      Like

  15. Mike in a Truck says:

    If this is the only achievement that PDJT and his team gets in this ongoing battle of wills then its 1000 times more than the sellout Bushs,Clinton,and Burdock Obamaumau got- which is nothing.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. ristvan says:

    Haven’t gone thru the phase one deal language (not yet available). But already have multiple positive chess gambit takeaways.

    1. Xi is in trouble at home. Hong Kong, African Swine Flu, tariff impacts… A2 posts here. PDJT would rather deal with known Xi than anybody else. So now cuts him some slack.
    2. Food for IP is a good trade. win win for both politically right now.
    3. Very publicly invoking bilat 19USC§2902 sticks a big middle finger up to Pelosi and Schiff.
    4. Is a very positive sign for what PDJT has been saying: China wants to do a deal more that I do.

    Bodes well for the rest of the deal negotiated maybe after election. Then PDJT can bring the whole thing to Congress for Pact ratification.

    Like

    • With Phases of the Deal taking effect in the lead-up to the 2020 Election, and finalization set for February 2021, sectors that benefit face a massive dilemma:

      Vote Trump to SEAL the DEAL.

      Vote Demo☭rat for China to VOID it with ZERO repercussions.

      Like

    • Isman says:

      Great points Ristvan. I also believe that this Phase One deal is a confirmation by the Chinese leadership that the prospect of impeachment is dead and the reelection of PDJT is likely.

      Like

  17. JAS says:

    Agree with SD’s the post in principle. That said, I was very impressed with POTUS grasp of the minute details, which he spoke about off the cuff. I watched the whole thing live. Very impressed.

    Complicated business, and he has it all in his mind and he is in his 70’s. I was very good at that but in my 60’s now and not nearly as good as he is by far. Brilliance stamina comes to mind! I cant recall any other president that could do that.

    As for the intellectual property issue, as POTUS said it will probably not get fully resolved until phase three. The banking/currency devaluation issues will get resolved in this phase one round. The food, and here I agree with SD is a RIGHT NOW issue for the Chinese, obviously a “reprieve” for them, and a win for our farmers, which also got a win with Japan just this last week. Starving Chinese is not an option for Xi.

    POTUS is driving this brilliantly. The Chinese, like every other country in the world, became depended on us over the last 20 or so years, at our BIG, and potentially DEADLY as a country, expense. That cushy living while ruining us is now OVER.

    Gotta love POTUS! Brightest guy in any room.

    PS, It took a bank 1.5 years a while back to renegotiate a measly $10 million loan with me representing the borrower. We agreed to a 15 month term and the borrower was able to liquidate the loan in 12 :). These negotiation things take a lot longer than you think. And there, that’s little “background” on me :).

    Liked by 1 person

  18. payday says:

    So the Chinese either pay $50b for US agriculture, or pay $50b in tariffs. I like how this is working…

    Liked by 1 person

    • clulessgrandpa says:

      And China saves face. That is key to this agreement.Trump the businessman knows how important that is in any big negotiation, if possible. For this massive of a deal, which is economic, political, and strategic in scope, it is omnipotent. The Art of the Deal.

      Liked by 1 person

  19. MVW says:

    Biden and Nancy’s impeach failure along with a Grand Solar Minimum (China historical records are thousands of years showing the imminent cyclical agriculture failure) pushed the deal to phase 1. As Trump said, our farmers will be challenged to meet the China market.

    Remaining tariffs are key. I am not surprised food was done first. I too am skeptical on anything else.

    Optimism is good politics.

    Like

    • NO one has yet seized on the fact that the China Ag Buy will ELIMINATE the need for massive Ag Price Subsidies and Payments Not to Plant!
      • Untold $ BILLIONS in avoided Federal Spending
      • Trigger to END Big-Ag Supply Scarcity with farmers multiplying plantings
      • Opening to TERMINATE Big Ag Price Manipulation
      • YUGE inflation-suppression for USA Consumers
      … regulatory ceiling on exports to eliminate domestic price spikes

      Liked by 5 people

  20. scrap1ron says:

    Trust China to renege on any part of this agreement they don’t like. They’re playing for time and pushing their American proxies to ensure Trump loses re-election in 2020, by any means necessary.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Payday says:

      PDT gave nothing and is getting $50 billion in AG purchases in return. Because they need it for food and for face saving. It’s a win win for both them and us. They won’t back out of this one. And I doubt there’s a next one. Who cares?

      Liked by 2 people

    • Nichevo says:

      But if they lose the bet on the election in 2020, PDT will screw them long time. The whole idea is that this may be them cashing in their chips having decided the Ds can’t git r done.

      Liked by 2 people

  21. nuwildcat1977 says:

    Over the past year, many eyes have been opened as to China’s evil ways (mine included). President Trump is weaning our country off of China and this agreement buys us time. In the meantime, our companies will adjust their supply chains (away from China) and the USA will forge strong trading partnerships with countries that can be trusted. Many companies will return manufacturing back to our country, providing jobs for thousands. Thankfully we have a strong leader in Mr. Trump who was willing to take on a tough issue that his predecessors chose to ignore.

    Liked by 4 people

  22. Let’s turn to the LEVERAGE this deal generates:

    “An agreement on IP and Banking/Financial Services is great”
    … For the Wall Street Financiers who are DESPERATE to tap into the China market.
    … BUT this won’t happen until JUNE 2020
    … In the midst of the Election Year. 😎

    🤔 POTUS can simply precondition the effective date:
    … On Congress and Canada’s APPROVAL of USMCA
    … To close China’s back-door exports through Mexico & Canada to avoid POTUS’ Tariffs

    Liked by 4 people

  23. SPECULATION:
    POTUS makes the 2020 Election all about “KEEPING America Great”
    • By Retaining the China Deal benefits for Big Ag and Smaller Farmers
    • By Retaining the China Deal opportunities for Financial and Banking Sectors
    • By Sustaining the benefits of Japan and UK Deals
    … BECAUSE Demo☭rats will TERMINATE them ALL.

    Liked by 3 people

    • Name ONE Demo☭rat who’s capable of forcing China to abide by a deal.

      Name ONE who wouldn’t pick up where JObama left off with Economic Racketeering to re-export our industries and jobs to China, revert to Looting America to fund EU Socialism and reignite the Mideast for Military-Industrial Campaign Funding.

      Liked by 2 people

    • SAM-TruthFreedomLiberty says:

      And until mid next year we are so strong the EU will have to open up their markets too.

      We’re already very strong but imagine once this comes all together.. the synergistic(!) effects will be amazing. Probably hitting a high around November next year 🙂 🙂 😀

      And then it’s all about KAG..

      Liked by 4 people

  24. SAM-TruthFreedomLiberty says:

    “Although China’s agricultural output is the largest in the world, only 12.6% of its total land area can be cultivated. China’s arable land, which represents 10% of the total arable land in the world, supports over 20% of the world’s population.[citation needed] Of this approximately 1.4 million square kilometers of arable land, only about 1.2% (116,580 square kilometers) permanently supports crops and 525,800 square kilometers are irrigated.[citation needed] The land is divided into approximately 200 million households, with an average land allocation of just 0.65 hectares (1.6 acres).

    China’s limited space for farming has been a problem throughout its history, leading to chronic food shortage and famine. While the production efficiency of farmland has grown over time, efforts to expand to the west and the north have met with limited success, as such land is generally colder and drier than traditional farmlands to the east. Since the 1950s, farm space has also been pressured by the increasing land needs of industry and cities. ”

    They need us. Not only to buy their sh*t but also to feed their population. President Trump can’t lose this trade war and his genius will give us the best possible outcome.

    Liked by 2 people

    • omyword says:

      Several years ago, as the ccp began building their concrete over wood cities….. where few want to live, they also began forcing people off their lands, away from farming and into cities to work at megerly wages, forced labor. Thus much of their agribusiness is gone. Instead of being a net exporter they are a net importer. POTUS knows this and is exploting this flaw. Right now here in S.E. Asia we see also the fruits of their business genusis. The chinese pork industry also is devistated due to the African swine flu which has killed tens of millions of swine. They are trying to export these diseased products all through S.E. Asia and it is having a adverse effect. China is grasping at straws ans they dont care who they harm to get their way.

      Liked by 1 person

  25. omyword says:

    Personally, I think Bejings only focus is stalling tarriffs. They are not to concerned with people eatting.

    YET

    Like

  26. While we’re on China, how bout those NBS GENIUSES:

    Forfeit the USA Market as TRAITORS to our Constitutional Rights.

    Build that China Basketball Association league with your 51% CCP Communist Partners.

    Then smile when China absorbs you … for NOTHING but a Visa Cancellation.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. MaineCoon says:

    Wow. PT has economic leverage over China. Now, he has food leverage to be reach is less than 2 years. That’s some leverage.

    Liked by 2 people

  28. TarsTarkas says:

    I think the sudden feint by Dragon Panda has to do with the collapse the latest attempt at impeaching Trump. HRC and her cheating lying team IMO are the only substantive threat to Trump being reelected. If Her Odiousness does jump into the ring, or if the Democrats come up with something more substantive in the way of impeachment, look for Emperor Xi’s minions to suddenly get more difficult and cagy.

    Like

    • JC says:

      TT: “…more difficult and cagey” = higher tariffs. Checkmate. VSGPOTUS Trump and that magical, mystical magic wand of economic leverage. Not a single one of our troops dispatched, to boot.

      “Her Odiousness” (acronym “HO”)… 😂

      Liked by 2 people

    • Dutchman says:

      TT,
      WHAT can they possibly come up “more substantive in the way of impeachment”?
      They have been searching, desperately for 3 plus years, using the IC, asking Ukraine and Russia for dirt, and they got NOTHING.
      Absurd notion, on its face.

      Like

  29. 4EDouglas says:

    Love the analogy of a hungry Panda…
    Trump took away the Noodles amd gave him a bowl of fisheads and rice.

    Like

  30. dufrst says:

    My thoughts on this is Trump bought himself some election insurance, but in actuality this just postpones the real negotiations until after the election. China will not agree to the enforcement mechanisms, but Trump had to take the massive agricultural purchases to secure the Midwest for 2020.

    I still think China and USA will not be able to reach a deal because fundamentally China could never agree to the terms the US has on the table and frankly, the US should never agree to a deal with a nation out to supplant us! Trump and Xi are doing what they need to do at this moment, but in the end, the USA will decouple from China.

    The real trade deals to watch are the USMCA, US-UK, and the US-Japan (and KORUS). Then, look to Brazil, India, and Indonesia (ASEAN) to be the fall back to the US decoupling from China. US-EU will be contentious, but that’s another scenario where a potential global rival will have to bite the dust so that we remain undisputed.

    Trump and Xi will sign something at APEC in Chile mid-November, but afterwards, nothing will happen until after 2020 elections. In the meanwhile, the tariffs remain, which will not make Wall Street happy on Monday, but Trump cleverly is pacifying the panic by announcing “phases” to the deal. Not to mention, the opening up of the financial system in China to Wall Street helps but as Sundance has said, Wall Street has financed the offshoring of American industry to China. China kind of owes Wall Street something in exchange for Wall Street’s determination to get Trump defeated next year by Biden (I am convinced he will be Dem nominee).

    Given the circumstances, Trump secured himself a higher stock market next year, preserved the tariffs, delivered for the farmers (subsidies can now end), and helped himself immensely for next year’s election. China prevented the death blow to its economy from the looming tariffs and escaped having to agree to any enforcement mechanism, and gave themselves time to affect next year’s election against Trump.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Dutchman says:

      durfrst,
      WOW, I find myself in agreement with your comment. I would say the EU is in the same caregory as China, there can be no deal, ultimately.

      If Wall street heavily invests in China, and then China collapses, what happens to Wall street?

      Is this a sneaky way to kill two carrion eating raptors, with one sword?

      Liked by 2 people

      • What if we work the problem backwards:

        What would need to happen for the USA to no longer need Wall Street Globalists?

        Liked by 4 people

        • Lester Smith says:

          Ok

          Like

        • Lester Smith says:

          Ok

          Like

        • Lester Smith says:

          Ok

          Like

        • Risa says:

          Please explains how that would play out for workers who instead of pensions have had to use 401Ks? And for pensions invested in stocks?

          People who suddenly have no retirements ?

          Like

        • Dutchman says:

          Trillion $ question, BKR!
          HOW to make the multinational corporations,…irrelevant?

          Based on how threatened they are, by PDJT, he must be doing something along those lines.

          Perhaps the alternative banking sector he is establishing, is a clue?

          Like

          • Why permit ANY pension investments in a country with a public commitment to destroy us.

            Same for permitting ANY listings on our stock market.

            Same for having ANY voting shares in a USA security.

            Like

            • Dutchman says:

              Yeah, pretty stupid. It all starts with a flawed ASS umption.

              “If we do commerce with Conmunist China, it will be forced to change its ways.”

              Didn’t happen, and once you start having Conmunist China make your stuff, well,…why NOT invest your pension funds, etc?

              Never mind the harvest human organs from political prisoners, have gulags that make Soviet Union look like Disney land, shipping fentanyl, dumping products, etc.

              Never mind their goal is to rule the world, and they corrupt everything they touch, including both political parties,…

              We need to end them, or they will end us.

              Liked by 1 person

              • Zheng Qiaozhi — we will call him George — still has nightmares. He was interning at China’s Shenyang Army General Hospital when he was drafted to be part of an organ-harvesting team.

                The prisoner was brought in, tied hand and foot, but very much alive. The army doctor in charge sliced him open from chest to belly button and exposed his two kidneys. “Cut the veins and arteries,” he told his shocked intern. George did as he was told. Blood spurted everywhere.

                The kidneys were placed in an organ-transplant container.

                Then the doctor ordered George to remove the man’s eyeballs. Hearing that, the dying prisoner gave him a look of sheer terror, and George froze. “I can’t do it,” he told the doctor, who then quickly scooped out the man’s eyeballs himself.

                George was so unnerved by what he had seen that he soon quit his job at the hospital and returned home. Later, afraid that he might be the next victim of China’s forced organ-transplant business, he fled to Canada and assumed a new identity.

                https://nypost.com/2019/06/01/chinese-dissidents-are-being-executed-for-their-organs-former-hospital-worker-says/
                ===
                Then there’s the NBA…

                Like

    • nuwildcat1977 says:

      Excellent points dufrst. Given the scope of China wrongdoing, our “asks” in this negotiation are too many to expect a comprehensive deal now, if ever. But importantly, we have begun the long term process of decoupling from China. Your “election insurance” comment is spot on—this deal is a big win for our farmers. And the introduction of the “phased deal” concept offers some semblance of stability for manufacturers and for Wall Street, which in turn will help our economy to continue on a growth path.

      Liked by 2 people

  31. Sprawlie says:

    “Meanwhile, touchy issues like tech company Hauwei, 5G, telecom and the Chinese firms on the U.S. blocked “entity list” (ie. trade ‘blacklist’) are not part of the discussions. Those issues fall under U.S. National Security and will not be part of any ongoing trade negotiations.”

    The Chinese are buying time for the 2020 election. But need an agrifood deal so they have to give something up. Yet this would theoretically lock them into having a huge part of their economic master plan being under the thumb of the U.S. DoJ even beyond 2020 under future Administrations. So why would they ever agree to this? This should be a deal stopper to them, yet it’s not.

    The Chinese know that a change in administration means a return to dealing with a DOJ-NSD, foreign diplomacy, and intelligence apparatus set up with the purpose of promoting corruption and enriching it’s operators. Like the virulent machinery established by 0 during his administration that the Chinese and other nations expertly exploited. Notice there wasn’t a peep from the Chinese on the President’s request that they lend legal assistance on our former VP’s criminal matters?

    As a reminder: The National Security Division (NSD) was created in March 2006 by the USA PATRIOT Reauthorization and Improvement Act (Pub. L. No. 109-177). The creation of the NSD consolidated the Justice Department’s primary national security operations: the former Office of Intelligence Policy and Review and the Counterterrorism and Counterintelligence and Export Control Sections of the Criminal Division.

    Liked by 2 people

  32. Trump created leverage with the 25% to 30% tariff increase, that didn’t exist before. So US gave up nothing really to get phase 1 deal, besides giving China more time

    Liked by 2 people

  33. DebbieSemms says:

    I hope this doesn’t raise the cost of our food much.

    Like

  34. fred5678 says:

    Fentynal ????

    Like

  35. Bronxite says:

    Hope this ag/crop export deal will reduce the corn-
    Ethanol scam.
    That would be a triple crown win for the average consumer- no subsidies extorted from taxpayer for ethanol; better gas mileage & reduced fuel costs; and cheaper food.
    As you may know; govt phony inflation statistics do NOT include
    Food; which is skyrocketing.

    Like

  36. Bruce_Dern's_Finger says:

    All of the Chinese democrat communists and the U.S.A. communist democrats are still in shock and seeking medical attention since Donald J. Trump’s election to the office of the presidency.

    Like

  37. Trent Telenko says:

    This agreement is about “Pig Ebola” and Hong Kong. Chairman Xi needs cheap food and a financial service replacement for Hong Kong.

    The Chinese Ag sector is 75 years behind in terms of industrial scale farming and particularly with things like concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFO).

    See:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concentrated_animal_feeding_operation

    Despite buying Smithfield Foods in 2013, the Chinese have not been able to do anything in terms of introducing CAFO to their pig husbandry.

    This speaks to a CCP political power issue between the Shuanghui Group which bought Smithfield and rural CCP Ag interests that Xi hasn’t resolved in favor of introducing CAFO.

    As for Hong Kong, they provide financial services for 90% of China’s foreign trade This works out to 25 to 30% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) depending on which GDP numbers you believe.

    Chairman Xi has made the decision to “Boil the Hong Kong Frog” and the frog jumped out of the pot. So now the need for alternate western financial institutions in China has become a time critical need before he has to drop the full-on totalitarian repression hammer in Hong Kong.

    It will take two years to replace all the financial services Hong Kong provides and the disruption of the Chinese economy will amount to a bad recession.

    It will take about 5-years to replace what China is going to lose, plus the reduced efficiency of a non-Chinese financial middle man with the West, which will amount to a long term 1% reduction in efficiency for the that portion of the economy.

    Worse case of 30% of GDP times 90% of financial services times a 1% reduction in efficiency is about 0.027% reduction in annual GDP long term.

    Given that this will remove anyplace inside China where Chairman Xi’s CCP rivals can hide their wealth, it is a “manageable” economic hit from Xi’s point of view in terms of consolidating his powers in the CCP.

    The question is what will Chairman Xi do with the Hong Kong Chinese?

    The two smart moves are either exile them all of turn Hong Kong into a internet-less gulag for 20 years.

    The traditional CCP way here will be to kill some, exile others, and repress the rest.

    This will create 1 million American spies with better anti-big brother electronic surveillance tradecraft that the best trainers in the CIA can provide.

    Like

    • Jedi9 says:

      Currently being in Hong Kong, a recession is already here! In the last two weeks due to protesters attacking places of businesses, small shops are now closing! The streets, the Malls and other places are eerily starting to resemble a ghost town now. A lot of mainlanders are staying away from Hong Kong out of fear. My business which is in the financial sector, has greatly suffered due to a large percentage of our clients being from mainland China! Hong Kongers for the most part see the protestors as an annoyance when disrupting commerce and the average person’s daily commute, but deep down they resent China’s intrusion into its local politics. It’s a double edge sword.

      The bigger businesses and multinational companies are currently eyeing Singapore as a base to retreat to and the transition would be seamless due to Singapore already having similar accommodations as HK but with better incentives should things continue to get worse. The only disadvantage to the latter is that it requires Chinese Nationals to travel further to seek their capital finance as opposed to HK which is much easier to access, not to mention the cost.

      The other strategy that Xi has been apt to develop on a fast track is the city of Shenzhen. His Long term strategy is to develop the city with newer modern infrastructure that will eventually replace Hong Kong as the financial hub for international commerce. Whether this strategy works or not is purely speculative at this point in time.

      The more simpler solution to solving the Hong Kong crisis is for Carrie Lam to step down and hold an election for her replacement. Surely the CCP being masters of illusions can easily pull this off while at the same time appeasing the the thirsty mob demands to a point they go back to business as usual. Win win!

      Like

  38. Jedi9 says:

    One can surmise the logic being applied here by the wolverines is that Agriculture can be separated from all other issues pertaining to US and China trade dispute. China can purchase our food, it’s after all a free market where the buyers (China), are free to participate however China doesn’t have the leverage to use such demand for food to gain another unrelated favour in return. As Sundance says, a Long term deal on addressing everything else is unlikely!

    Like

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