Best “Recession” Ever – U.S. Housing Starts Eclipse 12-year High…

Housing starts (and permits) have been a long-term key performance indicator for the economic stability and strength of Main Street USA for generations. Across all key metrics, the economics of middle-class America is defined by confidence in housing. A strong housing market reflects worker/purchaser confidence in their economic position.

The U.S. Commerce Department reports today that U.S. housing starts and permits has reached a 12-year-high. [data here] This is a key point because it cuts to the heart of the difference between a thriving Main Street economy and the disconnect surrounding issues with Wall Street (multinational) financial markets.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilding surged to more than a 12-year high in August as both single- and multi-family housing construction accelerated, suggesting that lower mortgage rates were finally providing a boost to the struggling housing market.

The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed permits for future home construction rose to levels last seen in 2007. Housing and manufacturing have been the weak spots in the economy, which is now in its 11th year of expansion, the longest in history.

The jump in home-building activity last month added to strong retail sales data in suggesting the economy continues to grow moderately and is probably not flirting with a recession as has been flagged by financial markets. (read more)

Housing lags behind other jumps in retail sales because housing is the biggest financial commitment made by U.S. workers.  A new home purchase, first purchase or upgrade, is the biggest decision for most American workers and families.   Since President Trump took office wages and worker benefits have increased substantially; more than a million people have now moved into the middle-class.

Again, for emphasis, there are two distinct economic metrics that are disconnected and intentionally conflated by Wall Street pundits, financial media and political opportunists therein who speak through the prism of economics.   The Main Street economy is thriving; the Wall Street financial economy -heavily influenced by multinational investment- is not thriving.

The two economic engines (Wall St. -vs- Main St.) were decoupled by corporate political influence, over U.S. economic policy, 30-years ago.  Wall Street is a paper financial market influenced by U.S. multinational interests.  Main Street is a blue-collar market influenced by the internal strength of the U.S. consumer, workers, wages and internal U.S. dynamics.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic policy is structured to the benefit of Main Street.  Real investment by domestic companies providing American jobs taking place inside the U.S.  The results of focusing on America First, generates more domestic jobs, a larger demand for U.S. workers, pressure on higher wages & subsequent increased consumer spending.   Homes and home purchases are an outcome of that internal economic strength.

The global market can, and likely will, retract.  The gains or losses of investment markets are not necessarily attached to Main Street outcomes. Wall Street overseas investments have less value when economic policy directs majority benefit to Main Street.  However, isolated from the external investment issue, the U.S. Main Street economy can simultaneously thrive due to growth internally within the domestic U.S. economy.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Auto Sector, Big Government, Donald Trump, Economy, Election 2020, media bias, President Trump, Trade Deal, Uncategorized, US Treasury, USA. Bookmark the permalink.

57 Responses to Best “Recession” Ever – U.S. Housing Starts Eclipse 12-year High…

  1. tax2much says:

    Furniture, furnishings and appliances to follow.

    Liked by 2 people

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      And Made in America!!!!!!

      “Furniture, furnishings and appliances….”

      Bassett Furniture is still made in America!

      Liked by 5 people

      • tonyE says:

        Yeah… I bought bunk beds for my kids 26 years ago. White ash, made in America. Company no longer makes them but the beds are strong and still in great shape. They did cost about 1000 bucks then, but they can be taken apart, as now, as separate beds and they will last generations.

        Now, the Ikea dressers, those broke in three years, so we bought unfinished dressers that we did in the garage… family project. The dressers are still going strong. Made in America.

        Although, we do have some Made in Denmark furniture that is still going strong after 35 years.

        And our history of couches… also made in America.

        Sure, they cost more, but you only have to buy one ( OK, we’re on our 3rd couch, after 38 years… den couches take a beating…).

        Liked by 5 people

  2. Sanj says:

    I have to admit, I really like the Left/Uniparty recession. It’s waaaay better than the green shoots we had for 8 years of Obama/Biden

    Liked by 7 people

  3. Pedro Morales says:

    At 3:00 pm the MSM could not wait to tout that the market was down (135 points) due to the rate cut for an economy heading toward recession. The rate cut was a sign of weakness. As of now the Dow is up 31 points for the day. Crickets now. And those stock market down articles are being pulled, but the recession ones are staying up. Hmmmmm. It seems like the MSM is doing everything they can to destroy business and consumer confidence

    Liked by 4 people

  4. Garrison Hall says:

    An interesting thing about a dynamic economy is that it gives us a velocity of expansion that allows us to simply power our way through financial situations that in a slower economy might well signal an impending recession. Among other things, the fact that more money is reaching the pockets of middle-class consumers means people are out buying stuff. This handily defeats the doomsayer’s forecast of a looming recession. The Trump economy—much to the disappointment and frustration of the Never Trumpers who would love to see him defeated due to a I-told-you-so recession—is like a full-tilt 18 wheeler blasting through a flimsy barrier. Trump’s loving this. Go Trump!!!

    Liked by 6 people

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      Ah yes. the “Velocity of Money.”

      Think that’s been a taboo subject since Obama’s reign of terror.

      “What Is the Velocity of Money?

      The velocity of money is a measurement of the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. It is the number of times that money moves from one entity to another. It also refers to how much a unit of currency is used in a given period of time. Simply put, it’s the rate at which consumers and businesses in an economy collectively spend money. The velocity of money is usually measured as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to a country’s M1 or M2 money supply.

      The velocity of money is important for measuring the rate at which money in circulation is being used for purchasing goods and services. It is used to help economists and investors gauge the health and vitality of an economy. High money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy. Low money velocity is usually associated with recessions and contractions.”

      https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/velocity.asp

      ********Think it’s time to CELEBRATE by spending a little more with local and small businesses!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!********

      Liked by 2 people

      • Reloader says:

        Art Laffer’s next book:
        “Donald Trump and the Super-Sonic Dollar.”

        Like

      • Henry chance says:

        Velocity of money is when Food Stamp President had millions of shoppers in Walmart at 1 AM with carts packed. The morning their card was replenished,

        Liked by 1 person

        • SwampRatTerrier says:

          Yes, I read all about that when it was happening.

          Some local, small-chain grocery stores started staying open till a bit after midnight to take advantage of that.

          Sad days indeed.

          American Betrayal: The Secret Assault on Our Nation’s Character

          Like

  5. EricStoner says:

    Another one of those “time-delayed” good policies Obama left behind to make his successor look great after his eight years of failure! Can’t seem to recall the exact policy so, perhaps someone can help me?

    Liked by 1 person

  6. MILupper says:

    Lower interest rates, which PDJT has called for since December are doing exactly what the President said they would do. VSG!!!

    Like

  7. MILupper says:

    Manufacturing activity rebounding. Housing starts accelerating. So much for 9 months of recession recession, recession MSM narrative.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Somebody's Gramma says:

    Wow. New housing starts… I haven’t heard that term in over a decade. Yes, it used to be THE indicator that the economy was in great shape. I love this president!!

    Liked by 3 people

  9. fangdog says:

    Can you imagine being a Democrat and having to endure defeat after defeat?

    Every hope has turned to despair if you are a democrat. However, proof of being a “Useful idiot”, you continue to come back for more. A sane person only needs one bloody-nose, whereas a democrat has no limit the number of bloody noses.

    Liked by 4 people

  10. Zippy says:

    Powell Confirms QE4 Is Coming, Just Not Today
    18 Sep 2019

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-confirms-qe4-coming-just-not-today

    For all those who were wondering why Powell would leave the market – which had made its expectation for some sort of POMO announcement today very clear – hanging so badly, sending risk assets and gold tumbling and the dollar surging, Powell finally felt some pity for the world’s liquidity addicts when he hinted that QE is indeed coming, just not today. To wit:

    “It is certainly possible that we’ll need to resume the organic growth of the balance sheet sooner than we thought.”

    And just in case that was confusing, Powell also said that the Fed would revisit the question of returning to “organic growth” in the inter-meeting period.

    It wasn’t clear how the Fed injecting liquidity equates to “organic growth” of the balance sheet, but we’ll leave that for the pedants.

    The moments Powell confirmed that QE4 is indeed on the way, around 2:50pm ET, stocks spiked, and the dollar slumped.

    Like

    • These Fed members are idiots or Anti-American … or both.

      They announced they will continue to support their mission of “Keeping the EXPANSION on track” … then that the consumer economy is fine … and the only threat to sustaining the Expansion is CONTRACTING Exports … which they failed to attribute to Foreign Countries’ MONETARY POLICY that makes their purchase of our Exports unaffordable … then they do NOTHING to correct the problem. 🙄

      Liked by 1 person

      • Zippy says:

        They are using simplistic garbage economic theories in the “Dismal Science” (that isn’t actually a “science,” thus the “dismal”) of economics to create simplistic garbage models fed with data (like CPI) manipulated for political reasons to run the world via the artificial manipulation of the price of money, so what do you expect? Also, consider that “central banks” are “central planners.” How does that always work out?

        Why isn’t it changed? Because the only people in a position to change it benefit from it.

        Asset inflation boom/bust cycles like the last two consecutive bubbles (dot com & housing) ratchet the wealth transfer in a two steps forward, one step back fashion. You can imagine the “fire sale” deals for people with loads of cash during a crash, right? And what a deal it is for the large concerns that can be the first ones out the door during a market crash while small investors are way, WAY in the back of the line (so sorry your day trader site is so slow… what, it crashed?… so sorry).

        We are now in the EVERYTHING bubble… WORLDWIDE… and the MASSIVE China DEBT-based expansion that “saved the world” last time CANNOT happen this time. Also, note that The Fed was finally raising rates after a HISTORICALLY long run of near zero rates for nearly a DECADE, leading anyone other than a FOOL to wonder, “Hey, if this so-called ‘recovery’ is self-sustaining, what’s with continuing the near zero rates which were said to only be an ’emergency measure’?”

        The Fed WAS very slowing raising rates, not yet even close to historic norms, in order to give it rate-lowering headroom after the next crash… but then it recently stopped and started lowering rates again before it even brought rates up enough to be sufficient “ammo” for the next crash:

        And the Fed’s balance sheet of the junk they bought to save concerns that SHOULD NOT have been saved during the last crash? Still not reduced sufficiently in preparation for the NEXT crash:

        Also, the national debt is going up again:

        So, yeah, everything is just great… on the surface.

        Like

        • MostlyRight says:

          Yes, but the economic pie is not static and Trump has grown it. For example, GDP was estimated $21.4 Trillion in 2019. It was up $5.2% in 2018 to $20.5 Trillion. It was up 4.2% in 2017 to $19.7 Trillion. $18.6 Trillion in 2016. $18.12 Trillion 2015. It was about $15 Trillion in 2008, when Obama started, and $3.6 Trillion more 8 years later (some of that final 2016 reasonably attributed to Trump’s election).

          Trump is up $3 Trillion in 2.5 years. I’ll take $9-10 Trillion in growth of the economy over 8 years over $3.6, with deficits $500 billion lower than Obama’s first 2 years, to help lower the overall GDP to new debt load.

          And remember, Trump rebuilt our military with that debt. Obama paid off buddies in the “green energy” sector and “shovel ready jobs”.

          Like

      • SwampRatTerrier says:

        I vote for “BOTH!”

        RE: “…Fed members are idiots or Anti-American … or both…”

        Liked by 1 person

    • The Fed’s failure to neuter the EU’s Currency Devaluation would seem to leave an open door for POTUS to cite its failure and impose RECIPROCAL TARIFFS instead.

      Win-Win for Making our Expansion Great Again:
      • More Exports
      • Higher Production

      Double impact on GDP.

      Liked by 1 person

  11. SPECULATION for INVESTORS:
    The inflection point for a USA Stock-Market Boom will occur when
    • 50% of our Globalist Manufacturers have COMMITTED to EXIT CHINA and
    • 25% of them have COMPLETED DECOUPLING

    At that point, decoupling becomes IRREVERSIBLE:
    • Manufacturers will incur YUGE costs from attempts to shift supply chains to new countries.
    • Most countries will not have all the capabilities and capacities to replicate China supply chains.
    • Every supply chain site will require costly investments in worker training and quality assurance.
    • Supply Chains spanning multiple countries begin to incur unexpected costs-of-complexity.
    • Just-in-time Manufacturing becomes impossible, with frequent delays at each stage.
    • Inventories balloon at each stage to cover periods of delay.
    • By the time Offshore Manufacturers hit the unaffordable pain level,
    … China supply chains have become Swiss Cheese
    … and China’s “Buy Made-in-China” will essentially have foreclosed on market access.

    Then their EPIPHANY: MAKE-in-USA with automation that cancels the labor premium.

    RE: The global market can, and likely will, retract.
    • The gains or losses of investment markets are not necessarily attached to Main Street outcomes.
    • Wall Street overseas investments have less value when economic policy directs majority benefit to Main Street.

    Liked by 1 person

  12. scrap1ron says:

    Wall Street multi-national globalists aren’t doing well? Golly, that’s a crying shame, pardon me a moment while I shed a few crocodile tears . Perhaps you should follow President Trump’s advice and get out of that Chicom entanglement. I realize I’m just a rube from one of those white working class communities you felt should die off, but Donny seems to know what he’s talking about.

    Like

  13. Raptors2020 says:

    Frightening to think we’re now truly in a world where nothing reported in news media can be trusted. No one in North America has experienced this: our fellow citizens who lived under communism, behind the Iron Curtain, will have to teach us the techniques of reading between the lines.

    The social media companies – YouTube, Facebook, Twitter etc. – will soon shut down all dissenting voices. Conservative Treehouse is on borrowed time. We’ll have to learn the techniques of communicating in code. Again, the people of Hong Kong are doing that now, and as they emigrate, we’ll need them to teach us the tricks.

    It’s a myth that the majority of people want to live in a world of free expression. Many people long for the cradle of delusion. Stalin is still a hero in Russia, to many. To a lot of Democrats, the solution to dissent is not to permit it. The one-party state (California) is not tyranny, it’s a comfort.

    I fear things will get much worse, before they get better; just ranting about the 2nd Amendment won’t cut it. We’ll have to outsmart them , not outgun them.

    Like

  14. Tiffthis says:

    I don’t think this is off topic but forgive my ignorance if it is- I heard the Powell cut the rates today(marginally)and PDJT is upset about it. Am I misinformed? Why would VSGPDJT be upset about another rate cut?

    Like

    • Zippy says:

      Because he doesn’t think it’s enough. But Powell made some hints. See my post above.

      Liked by 1 person

    • SwampRatTerrier says:

      The opposite.

      President Trump has been informing him for the last 2 years that rates need to be cut to deal with the EU.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Tiffthis says:

        I agree swamprat that all I have read is that Trump wants the rates lowered- but I heard on the radio this morning that he’s PISSED about the rate cut. I’m wondering if VSGPDJT isn’t setting up Powel to be replaced- by proving that he’s easily swayed one way or the other. Just spit balling ideas- btw. Not making any declarations. 😇

        Like

  15. Zippy says:

    Any time you read about the US dollar being replaced as the world’s reserve currency, think “-BS-“:

    Liked by 1 person

    • SteveT says:

      Euro and USD have 130% of the FX turnover????
      What do these figures represent? Can anyone shed any light on this please.

      SteveT

      Liked by 1 person

      • Much of each of those two numbers would be USD/EUR transactions so count towards both. That is, out of the 88% would include a fair bit of the 32% (being the USD/EUR or EUR/USD trades), and vice-a-versa.

        Like

      • Also, when you cross between two smaller currencies, you first buy USD which you then use to purchase the one you ultimately need. That means there are many FX transactions involving USD which do not involve any underlying USA elements (e.g. Thailand buying products from Argentina).

        Like

      • Arrest Soros says:

        Trade is two way so this is an index of 200 not 100.
        US 88 plus EU 32 = 120 divede by 2 = 60% of reserve currencies.

        By the way, a little trivia. The reason why a medium/smallish country like Australia is so high on that chart is because gold is generally traded in Australian dollars (because much of the Worlds gold comes from Australia) and the Aussie $ is considered highly trustworthy.

        Like

  16. Skidroe says:

    I refuse to purchase anything that is not made in the USA. I always check first. If it is not completely made in America I just do with out. Don’t care if it cost more because it will be made better and last longer. AMERICA FIRST!

    Like

  17. Magabear says:

    Recession BS from the left fell as flat as the Russia hoax, no wonder they went back to the Kavanaugh rape hoax. But that blew up in their faces again too, so I guess they’ll just go back to calling everyone a racist again.

    Liked by 1 person

  18. SwampRatTerrier says:
  19. dufrst says:

    This is more evidence that the US consumer is gathering steam. Low taxes, low interest rates, low inflation, low energy costs, and higher wages are buoying the consumer and the consumer will carry this economy to expansion over the next year and may very well bailout the global economy!

    There has never been a better time arguably for the US consumer and the results will be more cars, more homes, more vacations, and more retail sales. The economy is going to rock and roll as long as the Fed cuts rates appropriately and taxes stay low, this economy will run.

    In the offing, is a middle class tax cut, a major infrastructure program, and the trade deals that will protect American workers and bring back massive investment to the US! Trump will balance trade with or without Congress. He is straightening out everything in order to benefit this country tremendously. I

    In a few years, the budget will start to show how much wealth the nation is truly enjoying.Trump must be reelected next year to truly finish the job! MAGA!

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s