According to the White House:
President Donald J. Trump spoke by telephone with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom earlier today to discuss a wide range of trade and economic issues. Prime Minister Johnson also provided the President with an update on Brexit. The President expressed great enthusiasm for his upcoming meeting with the Prime Minister at the G7 Summit in Biarritz, France. (link)
The G7 is being held August 24th – 26th. The word of a tentative post-Brexit U.S-U.K trade agreement was first released last week. The potential construct has the assembly of mutual benefit and follows a plan previously recommended by President Trump to Prime Minister Theresa May.
Aides to Trump and Johnson are laying the groundwork for an announcement on the issue when they meet on the sidelines of the G-7 summit in France. Such a statement could outline a road map for negotiations and how the two countries envision their future trade ties, the official said.
The timing of it — during the G-7 and at their first meeting — would be intended to demonstrate a united front between the U.S. and the U.K as Trump and Johnson gather with European leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
CTH could see the outline of what President Trump had in mind back in 2017. If my suspicions are accurate, it’s a stunning maneuver but also difficult to explain. Think of it like a U.K. version of the NAFTA fatal flaw where Britain is positioned like Mexico/Canada, and the U.S. is positioned like China. There would be massive, beyond stunning, economic up-side for Britain.
What Trump and Johnson could construct is a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K that has genuine reciprocity and negligible trade barriers. Like a trade freeway between the U.K and the U.S, but only between the U.K. and U.S.
With the EU no longer able to influence trade agreements involving the U.K. European companies, and countries (Poland, Hungary etc.) could get tariff-free access to the U.S. market by operating out of Britain, or using transnational shipping through Britain.
Simultaneously, the U.S. could ship tariff free into the EU (to a receiving EU corporation, or EU subsidiary of a U.S. corporation) by exporting to Britain. The UK would be the hub for massive economic activity between North America and Europe.
If France (the EU) is charging Canada a high duty for imported Canadian cheese; Canada, through the USMCA pact could ship to a holding company in Britain who would then transfer product (duty free) to the receiving French company who is operating in the U.K, and distributing in France. [A French company in the U.K. would receive in the U.K without the French (EU) duty.]
Eventually all corporations in the EU, who wanted to do business with North America, would start operations in the U.K….. OR, the EU would have to drop it’s one-way tariff policy (ie. the Marshall plan is ended). Think about the leverage this creates.
Of course this process would completely change the trade dynamic in Europe; and completely change the trade dynamic between Europe and North America. So how would Trump and Johnson start? Answer: Establish an interim tripwire to measure success. Hence you get this phrase:
“[…] Such a deal could last for something like six months, the official told reporters.”…
Of course an interim deal… because the EU bloc will respond to it… so a reevaluation at six months, prior to any massive investment outlays, is exactly what a CEO would create.
Donald Trump isn’t a politician, he’s working through a plan for what he views (we agree) is bigger than any ideological aspects. “Economic Security is National Security.”
After the G7, President Trump and First Lady Melania are scheduled to travel to Poland as the special guests of Polish President Andrzej Duda and his wife Agata Kornhauser-Duda.
Lots of supporters in nearby Denmark are trying to get President Trump to visit while he is in the area…