Huawei Tech Prepares for 40 to 60 Percent Drop in International Smartphone Shipments…

Bloomberg has an interesting article citing an internal discussion within Chinese technology company Huawei as they estimate the financial impact to the U.S. blacklist position.

Do the math… Huawei estimates an international drop of between 40 million to 60 million units at an average retail cost of $500 per unit. That is a stunning financial forecast for a drop in sales.

(Via Bloomberg) Huawei Technologies Co. is preparing for a 40% to 60% drop in international smartphone shipments as the Trump administration’s blacklisting hammers one of the Chinese tech giant’s most important businesses.

China’s largest technology company is crunching internal estimates and exploring options including pulling the latest model of its marquee overseas label, the Honor 20, people familiar with the matter say.

The device begins selling in parts of Europe June 21 including France and the U.K., but executives are monitoring the launch and may cut off shipments if it sells poorly as expected, they said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters. Already, two of France’s largest carriers aren’t bothering with the Honor at all, two people familiar with the matter said.

Huawei sales and marketing managers are internally charting a drop in volumes of anywhere between 40 million to 60 million smartphones this year, the people said. That’s a big chunk of an international business that in 2018 accounted for almost half of the 206 million phones it moved.

The unusually wide range underscores the uncertainty gripping Huawei, a Chinese national champion that Washington accuses of aiding Beijing in espionage — something the company has repeatedly denied.

The U.S. in May blacklisted Huawei, choking off the American components and software it needs to run its businesses. That includes updates for the Google Android system that powers all its smartphones abroad. Without that software, devices like the Honor 20 wouldn’t be able to run critical apps like Google Maps and Gmail.

[…] Priced at 399 pounds ($500), the Honor 20 runs on the most advanced Android 9 software and is the latest in a line that’s won over budget-conscious consumers, including in the U.S.

[…] Huawei aims to grab as much as half of the smartphone market in China in 2019 to offset the decline overseas, the people said, citing internal discussions about year-end goals.

While the domestic market is shrinking, Huawei hopes to boost shipments by investing in marketing and expanding distribution channels, one of the people said. (more)

$20 to $30 BILLION loss on Smartphones alone.

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183 Responses to Huawei Tech Prepares for 40 to 60 Percent Drop in International Smartphone Shipments…

  1. bill says:

    A $25 Billion dollar financial loss… Good thing the Chinese Govt has deep (but dwindling) pockets to save their ‘National Champion’!

    Liked by 12 people

    • sundance says:

      And to think, that’s a singular direct loss of $20 to $30 billion. Imagine the downstream indirect loss amount…. incredible.

      Liked by 32 people

      • SJTP says:

        And the losses in both direct and indirect spying capabilities…

        Thanks for all your great insight, Sundance. You are a real Patriot.

        Liked by 12 people

        • Carrie2 says:

          SJTP, and this is why we love this site for real facts and information and clears up a lot of what the fake news pass to everyone. Whoever Sundance may be, he-she-it is a marvel and honored highly.

          Like

      • VVV VVV says:

        Unfortunately, the average voter understands none of this.

        Liked by 9 people

      • Perot Conservative says:

        Is this the Multiplier Effect – in reverse?

        Liked by 1 person

      • Sunshine says:

        I read your post about Ezra Levant and Manny Ottawa and how Justin from Canada is in deep shit. How to respond to China to repatriate the two Canadians? Huawei is China’s deal card with Canada.

        Manny Canada is a brilliant guy, although a lawyer. He thinks in those terms. He’s not a street fighter. Trump is a street fighter. And that’s how you deal with China.

        How Canada can get their guys back? It’s so easy. Fight like Trump. Threaten massive economic reprisals, threaten to evict all students from China, send out a danger signal to all Canadian companies in China, there is a long list of subliminal reprisals to wield.

        If Justin from Canada is smart and wants to win reelection, he’ll align with Trump and become a street fighter. Wiping out Huawei and extraditing the Chinese gal to the USA is a massive signal, after meeting with Trump.

        Liked by 5 people

        • Sunshine says:

          I forgot to mention that Justin from Canada will have a price to pay as a friend to Trump in the Huawei issue that will result in the release of the two Canadian detainees before the October election. The price will be allowing USA dairy and poultry into Canada, thus betraying the Canadian cartels.

          It’s unimportant because Justin from Canada already has much of their money in the bank for the upcoming election. The rest is simply explaining to Canadians how USA dairy/poultry will be price competition, thus resulting in cheaper prices for the normal household.

          A win-win for Justin from Canada, protected by Trump, as an ally. It’s a street fight.

          Liked by 3 people

          • Maquis says:

            USMCA already addresses those isues. Justin from Cuba couldn’t pull off a tough guy routine if PDJT fed him the lines in real time. Canada can’t “Trump” China without ditching their rainbow economy and unicorn ideology. They need heavy industry and energy and a slashing of taxes and regulations. They have the resources, but the will? The courage? The wisdom? I’d love to see it, but I don’t, not yet.

            Seems to me the best Justin from Cuba could do is get the USMCA approved and disappear.

            Liked by 10 people

            • Nordic Breed says:

              I think being a street fighter is not in Justin’s DNA.

              Liked by 3 people

              • donna kovacevic says:

                Sophie has made sure that Justine be a ballet dancer instead. Please I hope and pray that come October 2019 we will not be seeing his face or hearing his voice again.

                Liked by 1 person

              • Carrie2 says:

                Nordic, because it would mess up his phony eyebrows and dirty his “socks”. His face is super femalish and his love of self is higher than the highest mountain. Why do the Canadians even consider voting him back in would be one of the dumbest things ever in Canada and its future which will be nil.

                Like

          • Dutchman says:

            Sunshine
            Sorry, but a leopard can’t change its spots, and you simply can not turn a namby pamby dilletante p*ssy into a ‘streetfighter’.

            Can’t ‘un-nueter’ him, no way. Fighting isn’t about strength, its about WILL. Any competition is fought and won an one cubic foot of real estate.

            And Justine ain’t got it. IMHO

            Liked by 14 people

            • Yep, Trump’s UPBRINGING formed him from childhood. Self made millionaire father, devout Christian mother, hero worshiped older brother warning him to avoid tobacco, booze and drugs, military academy boot camp schooling and the street savvy that a Queens millionaire gets when he hobnobs with the Manhattan and Long Island elite who treated his money as fantastic, but his pedigree as untenable.

              Justin? NO FORMATION.

              Liked by 1 person

              • Dekester says:

                Jkash,

                Great post.

                J.T. is an imbecile. He truly is. His Liberal handlers, David Axelrod and a bought and paid for media ensured he would be PM. He still has the support of the majority of dopey females in the 30 – 70 age bracket and the majority of the recent immigrant vote he pandered to.

                Maybe just maybe the SNC Lavelin criminal enterprise may be his downfall. Maybe not though, as the opposition are pussies too.

                God bless PDJT

                Like

                • It is just unfathomable how we have come to be governed by these half wits. Of course the parasites used money and intimidation to prowl among the truly smart, indoctrinated them and thus grabbed power. Not due to any real worth or ability on their part, purely grabbed power via serpent strategy.

                  Like

                • and Amen. As I said this weekend, he’s in my rosary prayers every day.

                  Like

              • Dutchman says:

                Anyone here heard the Fred Trump story, about him being robbed? Gun to his head “Open the safe, or we’ll kill ya!”

                “No, cause if you kill me, ya won’t get the $. Once I open the safe, you have no reasin NOT to kill me.
                So, my odds of living are better, if I DON’T open the,safe, than if I DO.”

                Like

            • MaineCoon says:

              He’s a tippy toe dancer not a fighter.

              Liked by 2 people

            • Ron Jaeger says:

              Namby pamby !!!! ROFLMAO

              Like

          • Greg says:

            Justin as a street fighter won’t work, to be a street fighter the No.1 rule is, you have to be in control of your bladder.

            Liked by 2 people

        • Dee Paul Deje says:

          “If Justin from Canada is smart…”. That’s where it all ends for the fake feminist sparkled-socked dictator lover.

          Liked by 2 people

        • USTerminator says:

          Justin should learn from PDJT on dealing with China. Justin should announce that Canada will impose 25% tariff on all China products shipping to Canada and going up 10% each month until China releases Canadians held in China.

          Like

      • Razor1 says:

        And China says they plan to make up sales losses by expanding their domestic sales…yep that should work out just great with those constantly devalued yen the slave workers get paid. Kinda like the “soup nazi” from Seinfeld…no soup for you here’s your phone!

        Liked by 1 person

        • How is the Chinese populous expecting to buy phones when there are NO jobs paying the wages needed? Seems, Our VSG, PDJT put BOTH CANADA AND CHINA over a barrel…Neither one can help the other in the way that is needed to get back the “money” that is being expended…Canada NEEDS the US more than we need the Canuks and the Mambi-Pambi Justin just doesn’t have it in the shorts!!! All I’m saying!!!

          Liked by 1 person

          • Communism is propaganda and intimidation. I could see them forcing people who cannot afford them to fork out their money in order to boost sales. No sense in letting things like basic necessities impede an image of profit and success.

            Liked by 1 person

        • litlbit2 says:

          The coming vivid picture of the China Dream vs the American Dream or Socialism/Communism/liberalism vs Americanism, Conservatism and Freedom or MAGA!

          Godbless President Trump our real American President

          Liked by 2 people

        • Exactly, Razor1.
          THat ridiculous China dream actually DOES ally with Justin’s unicorn thinking.

          Liked by 1 person

        • USTerminator says:

          The omission here is that 60M phone sales is not loss. It is a loss to Huawei but these buyers will get from Apple, Samsung, LG …… It is a win/win for anyone not name China

          Liked by 1 person

      • James Carpenter says:

        …couldn’t happen to a nicer Panda (mask).

        Liked by 1 person

    • chojun says:

      This is, I think, why the consumer largely won’t see increased retail prices as a result of the tariffs. Illegal/unethical government subsidy of particular products in my view has always been for the purpose of either (or both of) 1) Protectionism or 2) To capture market share.

      I have always understood China’s actions as the hostile intent to capture market share and extinguish competition. For that reason, subsidy is required for this goal and therefore tariffs will only increase the amount of subsidy required to maintain the market share.

      in other words, it’s going to become extraordinarily expensive for China to maintain their economic status-quo. They have to be bleeding cash at a truly astounding rate.

      Liked by 6 people

    • richard verney says:

      In a way it is a shame, because they actually make some very good affordable phones. The consumer loses out, and the consumer is still spied on. It is just a question of whether this is spying is done by the American Gvernment and American big tech (think about the Amazon scandal recording everyone’s conversations, including children) or some foreign Government and foreign big tech.

      As a consumer, one has no control over the spying issue.

      Of course, it will be interesting to see what this does for Apple. Having less competetion may help Apple, but I read the other day, that the tariffs will probably add $300 to $400 to the price of an iphone. That sort of increase on what is already an expensive product may dent sales, or Apple may absorb some or most of this extra cost so as not to lose market share, and in which case that will eat into the profitability of Apple.

      Like

      • meow4me2 says:

        The market will bear only so much in price. They can’t keep adding to it beyond a certain point. If I’m a consumer and I want a new iPhone, I will simply decide to wait to make a purchase until the tariff business is done and over. If Apple decides to keep the higher tariff price, then I may be looking at competitors. Or just upgrade less frequently. The consumer has a price point you cannot go beyond.

        Liked by 5 people

        • GB Bari says:

          Apple forces the consumer to upgrade by eliminating support for older models in iOS updates. While a device can work with an obsolete version of iOS for awhile, eventually the apps on the device stop working as they become several versions obsolete. If one only needs the cell phone function it will work despite obsolete iOS, but why use a smartphone for just the cellphone function.

          Like

        • Dutchman says:

          Meow,
          Wait till the tarifs are ‘off’, you might have a very long wait. It is now becoming obvious, this is NOT a trade ‘deal’, it is a trade WAR, and won’t be over till one side is defeated, and one victorious.

          And assuming China, or more specifically CCP, loses, I don’t think China will be producing I phones any time soon.

          Soylent green, perhaps.

          Liked by 2 people

      • budklatsch says:

        Build them in America and Americans will buy them Apple!

        Liked by 5 people

        • Baby El says:

          NEVER! They are everything evil in corporate America.
          Just as bad as Microsoft, just less good at it.

          Like

          • Working in Silicon Valley, and having seen Microsoft’s transformative evil business practices since their start…they are still secondary to Google and Facebook.

            It’s almost incalculable evil that we are contemplating between these big techs.

            Dystopian lunacy.

            Just like China …and the caliphate lovers, actually

            Liked by 1 person

      • magaxena58 says:

        Good point about the spying.

        Like

      • KL says:

        “As a consumer, one has no control over the spying issue.”
        If you don’t use the always-listening voice activated gizmos, and you get off your chair to adjust the thermostat, and you refrain from being a twit and from playing with the fakebook, you have a lot more control.
        Just saying.

        Liked by 2 people

        • Yep….I embrace my luddite side and my very app lite old Blackberry.

          Jim Caviezel gave a fascinating interview to Raymond Arroyo on his program ‘Person of Interest’. They had tech intelligence experts as advisors and it drove him off of the grid and offline. He apparently was thriving quite nicely without connectivity dependency.

          Like

      • ibobland08 says:

        iPhone sales are already hurting. Most iPhone users aren’t upgrading their phones due to the very high cost of the new phones.

        Like

      • bob says:

        Iphones cost around $800 at retail. That’s with Apples 40% markup. So the import cost is around $500. 25% of that is $125. A 15% increase in sales price. My guess is that Apple will eat 7% and China 7%.

        Like

    • Henry chance says:

      $25 Billion drop in gross revenue is not a $25 billion dollar loss.By the time they pay Android and others for bloatware, They pay for chips, Qualcomm. Intel. They pay Foxconn for assembly and of course the $500 phone has retail markup.

      The loss I see is the 2 next to the latest phones they have in inventory they will have to give away. They will end up as throwaway phones sold by Slim under Tracphone at Dollar General for 40 bucks.

      Pronounced Waa Way

      Huawei is making more people mad by installing advertising popups.

      Does Huawei have 100 million units in inventory?

      Like

    • TarsTarkas says:

      That may have been the reason for the sudden attempted passing of the extradition law in Hong Kong. To use to seize the assets of HK tycoons. They are moving their money out of reach as fast as they can.

      Like

  2. $500 or more … for a telephone? Not this little red hen.

    Liked by 7 people

    • cthulhu says:

      Oh, c’mon — it’s more than a telephone! It’s an opportunity for several entities to spy on you 24/7/365. Y’know — to enhance your safety (NSA), and your user experience (Amazon), and keep your phone bills low (your cellphone carrier, who sells your information to ANYBODY). Who wouldn’t want this?

      Liked by 11 people

      • Reloader says:

        So my understanding of the situation (from an old tech worker) is that 5G would have/will enable the Red Chinese Commies to Blackmail everyone on Earth using 5G networks, whether they use a Huawei phone or not. Blackmail because they can see all of the porn, sexting, drug sales, lies and deceits that basically every human engages in. And would use that Blackmail to ensure that Joe Biden is the next American president, with all of the satanic downstream consequences.

        Is that about right?

        Liked by 3 people

        • Dutchman says:

          Not sure how that would work; you get a text message, Nov.6th;
          “We have all your porn watching, sexting and drug deals, and if you don’t vote for Joe Biden, and text us a photo of your ballot showing you vote for Biden, we will expose you!”

          I’m not ‘seeing’it, but I don’t get this whole ‘social score like a credit score’ thing.

          Liked by 2 people

          • John-Y128 says:

            Maybe a China Vacation would be revealing for the Dutchman.

            Like

            • Dutchman says:

              No, cause it would end with PDJT trying to get me released from a ‘re-education camp’, and already been ‘re-educated’ in American version (prison).
              Difference is, in China having a honey badger attitude is what gets you IN.
              In American, its that attitude you develop to survive till you get out.
              Actually, occurs to me China really emphasises/encourages/instills the OPPOSITE.
              Group acceptance, go along to get along all for the collective.

              America may not actually ENCOURAGE honey bear attitude, but with our liberties of speech, etc. we certainly don’t DISCOURAGE it.

              And it may well be a fair amount of honey bear attitude is a key element in American Exceptionalism.

              Liked by 3 people

          • budklatsch says:

            Wait a minute, all those ‘porn watching, sexting, and drug dealers’ are already card carrying democrats anyway.

            Liked by 5 people

        • cthulhu says:

          It’s not quite as you describe….although, in some ways, it’s worse. It’s very similar to having someone compromise your router at your home…..which gets rolling at https://routersecurity.org/whatcangowrong.php .

          With Linux, you can “see” all of this at a very granular level, and respond accordingly. With Windows, you can enable “Windows Defender” and hope they’re doing something right. The bad news is that “Windows Defender” may protect you better than your Linux system if you have configured it with insufficient paranoia.

          Liked by 2 people

          • John-Y128 says:

            It’s hard to imagine senior citizens configuring their American House Basement Linus Servers after the gathering room lessons on using Peanuts 101 Security Server software. /s

            Like

      • Carrie2 says:

        And never forget the danger of the cellphones and tablets as buyers tend not to read the instructions that they are made with RADIUM (you know we use to make nuclear bombs) and to always keep from brain, breast and genitals because of the radium, and USE a stylus instead of fingers. Pods and Blue Tooth should be used and never ever carry the cellphone on the body – pockets in shirts or trousers, but always outside the body in a case or purse. Just to remind you all of this as we are finding in medicine more illnesses and cancer because of the radium. Why put your health and life in danger to a gadget?

        Like

    • desperatelyseekingmelania says:

      Year before last I upgraded from a $30 phone to a $100 phone. Seemed expensive to me.

      Liked by 1 person

      • H.R. says:

        Last year, I replaced my old flip phone for $19… with another flip phone. They are getting harder to find. I should have bought 2-3 of them.
        .
        .
        .
        Re Melania (*Like* your nom de plume): Get in line. My wife already said I can have Melania if I can woo her away from President Trump.

        Liked by 1 person

  3. USTerminator says:

    No one in a right mind outside of China would buy Huawei anything. There are many alternatives why buy yourself a headache?

    Liked by 3 people

    • cthulhu says:

      For some of us, the same arguments against Huawei (which, I grant, may be valid) are applicable to Microsoft’s Windows (almost certainly valid), Google’s Android and Chrome (almost certainly valid), and Apple’s iOS (almost certainly valid)……which leaves you with……FOSS.

      Free and Open-Source Software. Everyone can see the innards and recompile them — if they compile differently, you may have a compromised compiler. If they compile the same, you and a bunch of other folks can see whether the innards are corrupted.

      Linux (which is FOSS) should get prepped to reap a major reward here.

      Liked by 2 people

      • jageorge72 says:

        Definitely Linux (I personally use Linux Mint…… free, open source, and very easy to use), and BSD-based operating systems as well. FreeBSD, GhostBSD (run this on my laptop), True OS, and Project Trident….. all good options.

        Like

        • cthulhu says:

          This system is Mint. Laptops are mostly Ubuntu (LTS). Older systems can be Peppermint. Embedded systems can be Ubuntu MATE — common thread: APT, and the ability to touch-back to Debian without being too religious about it.

          Which is funny, because when I first had my security issue in 2015, I went to CentOS…..which, at the time was on YUM.

          Part of this was that people I admired were using CentOS in an institutional environment. Pixy Misa at mu.nu once replied to me about being covered with 15,000 lines of “yum barf”. Ultimately, however, I believed that the Ubuntu crowd was better at maintaining repos and the Mint group was better at enhancing a desktop. Seriously, the Mint software updater kernel maintenance section is head-and-shoulders above anyone else that I know of.

          But the essential underpinning of all of Linux is FOSS. You can read it and recompile it if you’re suspicious.

          Liked by 4 people

          • 🍺Gunny66 says:

            Wow…..
            That was like a jet going twice the speed of sound just went over my head………Zoom….what….. was that?….

            Thankfully my son would understand…

            Ya lost me at: “This system is Mint…

            Nice post…😎

            Liked by 9 people

          • DON’T HAVE TO RECOMPILE the code if you open the code up and start looking at what is being doing with the ip addressing and the allocation of resources. Using the compiler, one can step through the code and “find” the tid-bits that don’t belong there!!!

            Me, have a router to the internet and one cable out…the IP address is HARD-WIRED…also, if anyone tries to scan my address there are going to setup off alarms and also do a back-tracking to the ip addresses…and behind that ANOTHER ROUTER!!!

            And if ANYONE is interested, have a VPN is a lot better both for the browser and the computer…Me, I run a server…

            Liked by 1 person

          • tonyE says:

            I’ve used all of that. Currently using Ubuntu, Mint and Raspian -laptops, towers and Raspberries at home. But I also use Android for our cell phones and tablets. I don’t use many apps, but I run our own website and mail server so Android makes my life easier.

            You should see the really cool wireless High End system I built in my bedroom with an older Samsung tablet, VLC, a power-OTG-hydra cable and a High End USB DAC, plus ancillary components. You can’t do that with Linux distros yet.

            Also, running Windows 7 pro 64 bit ( and also XP Pro 64 in an audio DAW) in a couple of laptops at home too.

            My son bought a Mac Pro. Can’t help him now, he’s 26.

            Liked by 1 person

      • desperatelyseekingmelania says:

        But you have to be computer geek to understand how to use that stuff.

        Like

        • tonyE says:

          (1) I am not a geek, I’m a logical thinker with a great sense of humor.
          (2) I recall once upon a time deriving the equations for an even horizon at school.
          (3) Everybody should understand the beauty of Calculus. Seriously.

          Like

      • Reloader says:

        Please explain why you group Apple iOS in with the others. Try to avoid arguments based on false propaganda.

        Like

      • TCG says:

        The same arguments are NOT applicable to American firms. Yes, there are issues about privacy and data collection; but these are not issues of outright, literal espionage by a hostile foreign power.

        Liked by 1 person

        • If you truly believe that most big American techs are NOT in favor of one global world government (which effectively IS a hostile to AMerica foreign power), please do some more research.

          I am not the only one here ‘privileged’ to hang around with these goons and here them openly express their desire to eradicate America, its freedoms and its sovereign government of BY the PEOPLE, of the PEOPLE and FOR the PEOPLE.

          Like

    • bluebongo says:

      Exactly, in the corporate financial world every investment has a hurdle rate, everything above that line is profit. When the hurdle rate is unknown money gets parked until it becomes known….just like our economy during the Obama years. China is in the unknown category until trade deals are ironed out. Big money is either exiting or sitting. This is just one small piece of a multi-trillion dollar pie.

      Like

  4. Uncle Al says:

    And this doesn’t even begin to address Huawei’s losses from 5G gear they won’t sell. Any estimates on that yet?

    Liked by 3 people

    • USTerminator says:

      Just wait, the US will impose mandated security protocol in 5G that incompatible to Huawei 5G. Anyone who uses the Huawei gears will be risk of not be able to connect to US network in 5G. Those Telecom companies are not going to take risk of not be able to connect to US network.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Any country that EMBEDS Huawei 5g in their telecom network … and by default their financial networks … will invite USA Sanctions on their Corporate Participants and Financial Users, Participants & Facilitators.

        Like

  5. Cowboy79 says:

    ” Huawei hopes to boost shipments by investing in marketing and expanding distribution channels, one of the people said.”

    Um. The Chinese position is laughable.

    25 Billion at risk and they think Marketing is the answer?

    This is a National Security Issue for the US and allies. Marketing won’t solve that.

    The sound you hear is the hissing air flowing out of the Chinese Flat tire. And Economy.

    Liked by 9 people

  6. Bogeyfree says:

    I really wish PT would tweet out:

    Why are the Dems so against America having fair and balance trade with China, while protecting US companies intellectual property? Why would any American be against this common sense approach to any trading partner?

    Another perfect spot for the PT “question tweet of the day” asking Americans common sense question would do wonders IMO.

    Liked by 10 people

    • Not yet…there are still too many ignoramuses who don’t know of all the sabotage who would just tune out PT…he’s giving them more rope so that they can brazenly expose themselves until even snowflake land gets wise…not saying ALL snowflakes will get wise, because clinical shrinks have already admitted that TDS DOES alter brain patterns…seriously.

      Then again, human beings have already been told that stress is tied to malignancy and unceasing hatred is about the highest level of stress you can put in an animal that is wired to crave love above money and power.

      Like

      • PLUS the massive implications as UNRESOLVED IP THEFT continues unabated …

        PROVOKING POSSIBILITIES:

        • Will Big Tech fund the campaigns of D-rats who will ignore/enable continued theft, or campaigns of President Trump and Trump-Approved Patriots to END it?

        • Will Big Tech continue its Fake News assaults on President Trump and Free Speech Suppression of his supporters, or reverse course to invite him to help end the IP Theft?

        Like

  7. Cowboy79 says:

    The Huawei brand is seriously damaged. At this point in time, I wouldn’t buy Huawei Toilet Paper even if I needed it. They are toxic. Watch the hedge funds and such. Huawei is a pariah.

    Liked by 3 people

  8. chojun says:

    If you really think about the magnitude of what’s happening in China, you really come to the realization that Trump is waging all-out war on Communist Chinese economic zero-sum aggression. There’s no other honest way to describe what’s going on other than to characterize it as Trump throwing haymakers. Imagine if he came out the gate in Jan, 2017 swinging at China like this.

    It’s a good thing that Trump, in my view, duct-taped the Panda mask to the Dragon when he made all those friendly overtures to Xi at the beginning of his presidency. Not only has Trump kept all options open but he has simultaneously limited the possible Chinese responses to this American defense against the exfiltration of its wealth and intellectual treasure.

    Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee.

    Liked by 18 people

  9. EV22 says:

    CNBC reports that in 2018:

    “Huawei said on Thursday its consumer business sales exceeded a record $52 billion in 2018, on strong demand for its premium smartphones.

    “The jump of around 50 percent in Huawei’s consumer business revenue saw that unit replace its carrier business as its largest segment by sales, said Richard Yu, the head of the consumer division.” https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/24/huawei-books-record-sales-in-its-smartphone-business.html

    At 40-60 million units at $500 a pop, that’s potentially losing about half their consumer sales. China will probably find a way to “incentivize” Chinese nationals to buy Huawei to save the company’s skin – as in, “Tell me again Comrade, which phone did you say you wanted to buy?”

    Liked by 1 person

  10. A2 says:

    No new underpants for the PLA.
    I hope they have a warehouse in Xian with old model panties held up with a bit of twine. Maybe Huawei has an App for that.

    🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

    Liked by 1 person

  11. A2 says:

    More trouble in Big China banks and their smaller counterparts.

    “Chinese small bank reserve rate is now I think 8.5% and they still don’t have enough liquidity. Think about all the implications there”

    PBOC Expands Rediscount, SLF Quotas to Shore up Liquidity for Smaller Chinese Banks
    http://www.chinabankingnews.com/2019/06/17/pboc-expands-rediscount-slf-quotas-to-shore-up-liquidity-for-smaller-chinese-banks/

    Liked by 3 people

    • Spectre says:

      An analyst on Bloomberg last week, Charlene Chu who works at firm called Autonomous, said that 20-30% of all the bank debt in China was bad. She said PBOC has let it be know they’re not backstopping these bad loans….

      Liked by 1 person

      • JoAnn Leichliter says:

        This may even be an underestimate. The government has forced bad loans on Chinese banks for probably a couple of decades. The whole system is riddled with non-performing debt.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Kinda like what the mortgage houses were doing with the “too-good-tobe” home loans…Merrill-Lynch blew up when Stan O’Neil was asked to get out of the Sub-prime market and look what happened…BOOM…ML no more and the Wealth Portfolio bought by BofA for pennies on the $…

        Like

    • JoAnn Leichliter says:

      Chinese banks in general are riddled with non-performing debt, forced on them by the government. It isn’t pretty.

      Like

    • Message to Chinese Banks:
      BOHICA

      Like

  12. cthulhu says:

    Remember that Huawei is not primarily a phone player. They’re mainly infrastructure. They don’t want to be 5G handsets, they want to be 5G buildouts on towers.

    Handset sales have a 20-minute leadtime; tower buildouts have a >6-month leadtime. This handset deal signals a massive tidal wave of trouble coming their way within the next few months.

    That “little thing” where they copied a Cisco product, including its typos, is about to bite them in the ass…..about 2/3 up their torso.

    Liked by 9 people

    • A2 says:

      Now they reportedly selling.
      Undersea cables — Huawei’s ace in the hole
      TOKYO — While the U.S. is pressuring allies to help keep Huawei Technologies out of 5G cellular networks, the Chinese giant is quietly advancing in the global market for one of the most critical components of telecom infrastructure: undersea cables.

      Virtually all of the world’s data transmissions go through cables on the bottom of the oceans. Communications satellites are also used, but their share of the data amounts to just 1%. The U.S., Europe and Japan look like they have the cable market locked down, but their dominance may not be as secure as it seems.

      Huawei put the industry on notice late last year, when it completed a cable between South America and Africa.
      p
      https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/Undersea-cables-Huawei-s-ace-in-the-hole

      Liked by 1 person

      • Maquis says:

        Plenty of opportunity for mischief there. No need to tap an undersea cable if you laid it yourself with monitoring tech built in. When will the world wake up to who and what the ChiComs are?

        Liked by 1 person

        • JoAnn Leichliter says:

          When it is too late, of course. Corporate greed supercedes concern with national or personal security every time.

          Like

      • Pyrran says:

        And Elon Musk is about to blow that out of the water with 12,000 satellites in the Starlink system. Bye bye undersea cable traffic, hello laser satellites.

        Liked by 1 person

  13. A2 says:

    Another Huawei event today in Shenzhen

    SJ
    @SijiaJ
    Another day, another
    @Huawei
    event! Today I am going to…………watch Nicholas Negroponte and George Gilder have coffee with Ren Zhengfei.

    Nergroponte is the co-founder of MIT Media Lab and Gilder is a venture capitalist.

    MIT and Harvard have lots of explaining to do about their CCP funded projects.

    #GreatChinaPayroll

    Liked by 4 people

  14. Garrison Hall says:

    The “Big Piggy Bank” is officially closed. Essentially, the Chinese position (and this applies to the Europeans, Mexicans, and Canadians too) is that they should protect their industries and workers with high tariffs on American produced goods while they have unrestricted access to our market. While this has impoverished American workers they’ve pretended this imbalance in economic relations is entirely justified. What our president is doing is insisting that everyone should have fair trade—which he defines as having sharply reduced tariffs—if not actual tariff parity or even no tariffs. His point, which is a good one, is that we should have as much right to protect our industries and workers as anyone one else.

    Raising US tariffs is not only disturbing to these countries, it is also decidedly upsetting to American oligarchs who own offshore factories and who enrich themselves by dipping into the big American piggy bank. China’s fascist economic model is especially attractive to these globalist oligarchs because it guarantees them a profit so long as they are obedient to state controls—like sharing American know-how with their Chinese masters. Two poster children for these offshore oligarchs are the Koch brothers who, for years, pretended to be “libertarian conservatives” but who are now revealed as globalists who are happy to get into bed with fascists. Is it any wonder that these “principled conservatives” have now announced that their formidable political contributions are going to now go to progressives?

    Liked by 4 people

  15. tonyE says:

    So… “Longer term, Huawei is developing more of its own chips and mobile software to reduce its reliance on foreign technology.”

    OK, and where are they going get the parts to make their chips? Where are they going to get the parts to build the ASICs? Are they really going to make their own OS? From who?

    They can’t get ARM technology. If they use the old ones then they might as well give it up exporting anywhere and good luck using expired licenses.

    They are in World of hurt.

    Like

  16. bill says:

    The Chinese National budget is $3.3 Trillion dollars. Assuming Trumps tariffs are raised to 25% on $610 Billion in imports ($152 Billion), where the Chinese paid 80% of the tariff to maintain social stability (equals to $122 Billion in Chinese govt costs), + cost of lost sales due to Trump Blacklisting @ $40 billion. Total cost to the Chinese govt is $162 Billion!

    Chinese 2018 defense spending was $175 Billion dollars.
    President Trump is inflicting tariffs & blacklisting costs that are roughly equal to the Chinese annual defense spending! Rough numbers but let that sink in. Wonder if defense spending on carrier, destroyers and missiles will slow down soon….

    Trump tariffs & lost sales $162 Billion of a $3.3 trillion Chinese govt budget = 4.9%
    A 5% contraction in spending isa HEAVY recession.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_China
    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/chinas-government-spending-rose-8point7-percent-in-2018.html

    Liked by 2 people

    • Dutchman says:

      They spend more on internal security than they do on ‘defence’ and their gonna need every pennys worth, before the end.

      They are going to continually be in a situation of having to choose between “least bad options”, one after another.

      Roughly equivalent to someone going bankrupt. “Do I not pay the house payment, or not by gas for the car, or not eat?”

      Sucks to be them, lieing in the bed they made for themselves. As Sundance has said free market economies can adapt, centralised controlled economies, not so much.

      Liked by 3 people

    • Trent Telenko says:

      IOW, Pres Trump has effectively killed the Chinese economy stone cold dead, with the on-going Chinese Naval build up being the likeliest first casualty.

      It will take a while for the dinosaur to expire, but Pres. Trump has removed China from every western multi-national supply chain simply on supply chain risk management grounds alone.

      The issue here is no longer “How do we manage China’s arrival as a great power.”

      It’s going to be “How do we manage the consequences of a Post-CCP China.”

      Liked by 1 person

      • TarsTarkas says:

        I suspect money for the military is the last thing that will be cut, if at all. Because without more ships and tanks and soldiers to protect Belt and Road, they are at the mercy of the goodwill of Fleet Americana. Also if they try to pare down defense appropriations there may be mutinies. If the armed forces, or a sizable portion of them, turn against the Xi and the Politboro things could get very ugly very fast, especially since many members of the High Command are very xenophobic and think they should attack and conquer Taiwan NOW.

        Liked by 1 person

  17. labrat says:

    So who is best positioned to pick up that business?

    Like

  18. Defanged says:

    So what’s China’s next move? They HAVE to do something eventually

    Like

    • Maquis says:

      G20 coming up!

      Like

    • A2 says:

      We are awaiting the official CCP website Qiushi, to publish their so-called hard hitting articles against the US trade negotiations that they promised.

      Some clues will be there,

      I suspect it will be a hoot going into the G20.
      Maybe Xi Pooh will scarf up all that Russian ice cream they gave him as a birthday present in Tajikistan, fall asleep and hibernate.

      Maybe piglet Lam will run around the World village in tears, as she realises holding hands with the CCP Pooh bear, has left her swinging on a meat hook at the gaisee.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Dutchman says:

      Defanged,
      Thats what the CCP are asking themselves, right now. And they ain’t got any answer, cause sometimes there IS no answer.
      They are in full reaction mode, and thats NOT a good place to be.

      Like

      • Lester Smith says:

        So what hope they all fold. Trump could really p china off suspend or completely cancel repayment of Obama generated debt.

        Like

      • Lester Smith says:

        So what hope they all fold. Trump could really p china off suspend or completely cancel repayment of Obama generated debt.

        Like

  19. Ghost says:

    Observations from a smaller limb.

    China is officially reporting Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index at 49.4. Also reporting new export orders index at 46.5. I would expect things are worse than official reports, the trend doesn’t look good for them right now.
    Note: below 50 contracting above expanding.

    PMI:
    March: 50.5
    April: 50.1
    May: 49.4

    New Orders Index:
    March: 51.6
    April: 51.4
    May: 46.6

    In Hand Orders:
    March: 46.4
    April: 44.0
    May: 44.3

    It is the banking system that needs to watched as they pump more yuan into their economy.

    http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

    😎

    Liked by 4 people

  20. Genie says:

    I instinctively distrust a phone named “Honor.” It screams Chicom subterfuge.

    Liked by 4 people

  21. Pyrthroes says:

    Per Moore’s Law (sic) and other loose extrapolations, within 3 – 5+ years ye ole PRC’s relentless rip-off culture will find itself gutterballed by inherent incapacity to innovate. And what will Hsi & Co. do then, poor things, when flagship consortia like Huawei become terminally obsolete?

    Who knows what missions Hsi’s affectless, bellicose commandatura may then undertake… but we do know what Commissars can’t, and therefore won’t, attempt: A competitive, free-market, innovative transformation from parasitic dirigiste mandates to halfway-decent, capitalist-incentive risk/reward.

    Over some three thousand years, Middle Kingdom mandarinates have uniformly wrapped themselves in splendid isolation to the exclusion of all popular benefit whatever. As Stephen Vincent Benet once put it, in radically different yet analogous contexts: “Nothing is changed, John Brown– nothing is changed.”

    Liked by 1 person

  22. lcpusa says:

    Trump to Wilburine….”leave the gun, take the cannolis”….

    Like

  23. sDee says:

    Has Trump exposed globalism as the globalists’ Achilles heel? China can recreate these phones without US technology, but watch Google………………….

    For mobile phones, the core competitive advantage lies in control of the operating systems and apps. Two “American” companies, Google (Android) and Apple (iOS), have been allowed to create global software monopolies, each with its own control of its own application market.

    Some interesting technology aspects of this are in the Wired article below. But keep in mind that Google may prove to be the bad actor here, not Huawei. Google controls not only Android but also the so-called “open source” versions of Android that Huawei would switch to.

    One observation is that Huawei does decide to strike out on its own to compete in a global markets, it wold be defying the very reasons the Globalists created the company in the first place.

    Minyuan Zhao, a professor at Wharton School…………………….
    “They built on Western technology expecting it would always be there,” she says. “Going it alone was not the plan.”
    “As the largest beneficiary of globalization, there’s no sense in China breaking globalization.”

    https://www.wired.com/story/us-sanctions-huawei-fuel-chinas-plan-tech/

    Like

  24. 335blues says:

    Simply amazing to me is the roughly 50% of estimated sales that apparently might go forward.
    It is a crime for the government of any country to allow this equipment to be used by its citizens knowing that the CCP is attempting to construct a worldwide database of blackmail information
    and stolen technologies.

    Like

    • sDee says:

      “It is a crime for the government of any country to allow this equipment to be used by its citizens”

      It is not a crime, it is the nature of big data monopolies. It’s not just Huawei phones. We use surveillance technology willingly and agree to the Terms of Use that suspend our rights.

      Consider what the FBI is doing to entrap US citizens with the NSA database.
      Consider what GAFTA (GoogleAppleFacebookTwitterApple) have in place.
      Consider what AT&T has in place https://theintercept.com/2018/06/25/att-internet-nsa-spy-hubs/

      Like

  25. I’ve got an idea – why don’t we build these devices IN AMERICA, and make them the very best in the world? “American Style™ …” We’ll just take the world’s electronics industry and bring it back here and dust their pants with how much better “We Can Do It!”

    Liked by 1 person

  26. TreeperInTraining says:

    If a smartphone never gets sold, is it still smart?

    Amazing…what an Alpha Male with gonads can do.

    Liked by 2 people

  27. Kleen says:

    “It may cut off shipment “

    Already produced, not selling merchandise, they will have to give them away.

    Liked by 1 person

  28. Neil M. Dunn says:

    This article contains Huawei’s response to the lost revenue. Note how much cheating the company has done.
    https://www.zdnet.com/article/huawei-will-not-be-beaten-to-death-despite-30b-hit-ren-zhengfei/?ftag=TRE-03-10aaa6b&bhid=27650671308871222201246042454699

    Like

  29. bob says:

    You ain’t seen nothing yet! Just wait until all electronics, computers, tablets, TVs etc. from China are outlawed.

    Like

  30. Like I said earlier – sounds like a great business for the USA to completely dominate. (Especially since we’re also the ones who buy a lot of the product.) I’ll bet that we can build a far superior product for much less money by the application of a bit of “Yankee ingenuity.”

    “Okay, we’re going to offer 75% of the revenue from these tariffs to companies who can commit to building the necessary fabrication plants within two years and who will switch at least 50% of their sourcing to those plants immediately upon completion.”

    Like

  31. Lactantius says:

    Color me cynical. Cyan Cynical. I do not see a lick of difference between the scurrilous motives of Commie China, Huawei, Google, FaceBook, Amazon, the Deep State and any other information aggregator/globalist/monopolistic entity.

    Trust means having confidence in something upon which one becomes dependent. There is no “kind of” trust; trust is fundamental. And if one is being milked and bilked by a “service” of any sort, there should be great concern.

    Everyone knows that Alexa is a spy as are some TVs. It depends on the aggregator as to what the raw data reveals. Faith and trust are being whittled down to very, very narrow relationships.

    The “Trump-Russia Collusion” fluster-cluck has stripped away any semblance of purity and fidelity when it comes to the FISA Court, the national security agencies, the Department of Justice, the F.B.I., the Department of State and the Oval Office. I didn’t include Congress because that aggregation of jackals and vultures exposed themselves long, long, long ago.

    When one must not have faith and trust in the major institutions; the society is in deep, deep shite. Dante reserved the fourth circle of Hell for those who fed on their greed, The eighth circle of Hell was for the fraudsters. The ninth and innermost circle of hell was reserved for those who were treacherous. All this understanding of the human psyche and misuse of power was put to paper by Dante Alighieri 700 years ago and governments have fallen over and over again because of the greed, arrogance, fraud and treachery of powerful rulers, administrators and organizations.

    President Donald J. Trump is battling all of this. He has been the first president in my nearly nine decades who has come in from the complete “outside” of the government and stood up to the institutionalized habits of the Deep State and all that it embraces.

    In that regard, President Donald J. Trump has been refreshingly “unpresidential.” He breaks eggs. He confronts duplicity with naked truth. He dares to cut through nuance, innuendo and newspeak by being bold, forthright and abundantly clear. Roaches worldwide hate having a light shined on them.

    It will take 50 years to turn this society around. Eight years of President Donald J. Trump is a very good beginning. No one could done the first two years better.

    Liked by 3 people

    • 1970novass396 says:

      Your comments are right on point. At 68 years of age it is hard to imagine just how corrupt the US government is today. My fear is that we’ve gone to the point that the direction can’t be reversed. The under 40 crowd doesn’t have a clue. Beside they will not put down their cellphone long enough to get a better understanding of their actual situation.

      Like

  32. Luke of the D says:

    I am curious: What exactly does Huawei produce? What products should I avoid buying? What products that I may already own should I discard?

    Like

  33. gymcy81 says:

    It makes sense that a Chinese company would name a product ‘Honor.

    (honor is kept as long no one is caught.)

    If only the culture had a lot more other virtues, religious principles that were equally respected….Love thy neighbor…the golden rule etc.
    [not that all Americans are virtuous and principled due to sins…yet, some people are…as well as in large part, the traditional laws and the adjudication of those laws.]

    Thanks for the article.

    Imho
    I do not know

    Like

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