MAGAnomics: Mastercard Releases First Tabulated Holiday Sales Report With Whopping 5.1% Increase

As CTH anticipated the first tabulated holiday sales report via Mastercard® shows the results of a very strong consumer confidence level.  The first report highlights a very strong 5.1% increase in holiday purchases:

“Wall Street is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, while Mr. and Mrs. Main Street are happy with their jobs, enjoying their best wage increases in a decade”…

~ Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners

(Via Wall Street Journal)  Shoppers delivered the strongest holiday sales increase for U.S. retailers in six years, according to early data.

Total U.S. retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose 5.1% between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 from a year earlier, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, which tracks both online and in-store spending with all forms of payment. Overall, U.S. consumers spent over $850 billion this holiday season, according to Mastercard.

[…] Retailers entered the holidays with momentum as online sales jumped 26.4% from a year earlier between the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through Black Friday.

[…] Sales at department stores fell 1.3% in the period tracked by Mastercard, in part due to store closings. Stores that mainly sell apparel, however, experienced robust sales, growing 7.9% during the same period. Overall, sales from bricks-and-mortar stores rose 3.3%.  (read more)

It will be interesting to see how the fourth quarter GDP growth is impacted by strong consumer sales.  Generally consumer sales make up two-thirds of GDP calculations; however, there was a strong front-loading of imported inventory at the end of the 3rd quarter (Sept).

The preliminary data suggests Main Street is indeed benefiting from a strong domestic economy.  Low unemployment, lower taxes and higher wages equals more disposable income.  That foundation likely fueled the increase in consumer spending throughout the holidays.

Wall Street is being impacted by their multinational reliance which is heavily weighted toward global investments.  Main Street is driven by the actual U.S.A. checkbook economic factors.  This is the modern disconnect.  After decades of Wall Street companies investing overseas, and generating investment products that are fundamentally detached from the U.S. economy, they do not benefit from a strong U.S. economy.  However, Main Street directly gains from internal U.S. economic growth.

It is likely retail stocks with a heavy weight on the U.S. consumer market will see a resurgence in stock market value.  Last year’s 2017 holiday sales were approximately $598 billion as measured by Consumer Growth Partners.  This year’s holiday sales look to be around $850 billion, as measured by the same data firm.

There really is a big disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

If you understand the basic elements behind the new dimension in American economics, you already understand how three decades of DC legislative, monetary and regulatory policy was structured to benefit Wall Street and not Main Street. The intentional shift in monetary policy is what created the distance between two entirely divergent economic engines.

REMEMBER […] there had to be a point where the value of the second economy (Wall Street) surpassed the value of the first economy (Main Street).

Investments, and the bets therein, needed to expand outside of the USA. hence, globalist investing.

However, a second more consequential aspect happened simultaneously. The politicians became more valuable to the Wall Street team than the Main Street team; and Wall Street had deeper pockets because their economy was now larger.

As a consequence Wall Street started funding political candidates and asking for legislation that benefited their interests.

When Main Street was purchasing the legislative influence the outcomes were -generally speaking- beneficial to Main Street, and by direct attachment those outcomes also benefited the average American inside the real economy.

When Wall Street began purchasing the legislative influence, the outcomes therein became beneficial to Wall Street. Those benefits are detached from improving the livelihoods of main street Americans because the benefits are “global”. Global financial interests, multinational investment interests -and corporations therein- became the primary filter through which the DC legislative outcomes were considered.

There is a natural disconnect. (more)

As an outcome of national financial policy blending commercial banking with institutional investment banking something happened on Wall Street that few understand. If we take the time to understand what happened we can understand why the Stock Market grew and what risks exist today as the monetary policy is reversed to benefit Main Street.

President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have already begun assembling and delivering a new banking system.

Instead of attempting to put Glass-Stegal regulations back into massive banking systems, the Trump administration is creating a parallel financial system of less-regulated small commercial banks, credit unions and traditional lenders who can operate to the benefit of Main Street without the burdensome regulation of the mega-banks and multinationals. This really is one of the more brilliant solutions to work around a uniquely American economic problem.

♦ When U.S. banks were allowed to merge their investment divisions with their commercial banking operations (the removal of Glass Stegal) something changed on Wall Street.

Companies who are evaluated based on their financial results, profits and losses, remained in their traditional role as traded stocks on the U.S. Stock Market and were evaluated accordingly. However, over time investment instruments -which are secondary to actual company results- created a sub-set within Wall Street that detached from actual bottom line company results.

The resulting secondary financial market system was essentially ‘investment markets’. Both ordinary company stocks and the investment market stocks operate on the same stock exchanges. But the underlying valuation is tied to entirely different metrics.

Financial products were developed (as investment instruments) that are essentially wagers or bets on the outcomes of actual companies traded on Wall Street. Those bets/wagers form the hedge markets and are [essentially] people trading on expectations of performance. The “derivatives market” is the ‘betting system’.

♦Ford Motor Company (only chosen as a commonly known entity) has a stock valuation based on their actual company performance in the market of manufacturing and consumer purchasing of their product. However, there can be thousands of financial instruments wagering on the actual outcome of their performance.

There are two initial bets on these outcomes that form the basis for Hedge-fund activity. Bet ‘A’ that Ford hits a profit number, or bet ‘B’ that they don’t. There are financial instruments created to place each wager. [The wagers form the derivatives] But it doesn’t stop there.

Additionally, more financial products are created that bet on the outcomes of the A/B bets. A secondary financial product might find two sides betting on both A outcome and B outcome.

Party C bets the “A” bet is accurate, and party D bets against the A bet. Party E bets the “B” bet is accurate, and party F bets against the B. If it stopped there we would only have six total participants. But it doesn’t stop there, it goes on and on and on…

The outcome of the bets forms the basis for the tenuous investment markets. The important part to understand is that the investment funds are not necessarily attached to the original company stock, they are now attached to the outcome of bet(s). Hence an inherent disconnect is created.

Subsequently, if the actual stock doesn’t meet it’s expected P-n-L outcome (if the company actually doesn’t do well), and if the financial investment was betting against the outcome, the value of the investment actually goes up. The company performance and the investment bets on the outcome of that performance are two entirely different aspects of the stock market. [Hence two metrics.]

♦Understanding the disconnect between an actual company on the stock market, and the bets for and against that company stock, helps to understand what can happen when fiscal policy is geared toward the underlying company (Main Street MAGAnomics), and not toward the bets therein (Investment Class).

The U.S. stock markets’ overall value can increase with Main Street policy, and yet the investment class can simultaneously decrease in value even though the company(ies) in the stock market is/are doing better. This detachment is critical to understand because the ‘real economy’ is based on the company, the ‘paper economy’ is based on the financial investment instruments betting on the company.

Trillions can be lost in investment instruments, and yet the overall stock market -as valued by company operations/profits- can increase.

Conversely, there are now classes of companies on the U.S. stock exchange that never make a dime in profit, yet the value of the company increases. This dynamic is possible because the financial investment bets are not connected to the bottom line profit. (Examples include Tesla Motors, Amazon and a host of internet stocks like Facebook and Twitter.) It is this investment group of companies that stands to lose the most if/when the underlying system of betting on them stops or slows.

Specifically due to most recent U.S. monetary policy, modern multinational banks, including all of the investment products therein, are more closely attached to this investment system on Wall Street. It stands to reason they are at greater risk of financial losses overall with a shift in monetary/fiscal policy.

That financial and economic risk is the basic reason behind Trump and Mnuchin putting a protective, secondary and parallel, banking system in place for Main Street.

Big multinational banks can suffer big losses from their investments, and yet the Main Street economy can continue growing, and have access to capital, uninterrupted.

Bottom Line: U.S. companies who have actual connection to a growing U.S. economy can succeed; based on the advantages of the new economic environment and MAGA policy, specifically in the areas of manufacturing, trade and the ancillary consumer benefactors.

Meanwhile U.S. investment assets (multinational investment portfolios) that are disconnected from the actual results of those benefiting U.S. companies, and as a consequence also disconnected from the U.S. economic expansion, can simultaneously drop in value even though the U.S. economy is thriving.

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111 Responses to MAGAnomics: Mastercard Releases First Tabulated Holiday Sales Report With Whopping 5.1% Increase

  1. kinthenorthwest says:

    Will have to say that I did notice more people out shopping in my area ..My area has never been like the cities of California, but this year it was like a zoo at times.

    Liked by 6 people

    • michaelh says:

      We have a lot to be grateful for this year!

      Liked by 13 people

    • fleporeblog says:

      It is absolutely amazing to see the disconnect at this point in time between Main Street versus Wall Street. The Economists and talking heads aren’t able to explain it because it is completely foreign to them. The data they are reading suggests we are headed for a major recession when the look solely at the Market. The Global Economy is in far worse shape than ours. I have no doubt that Germany 🇩🇪 and France 🇫🇷 will be in a major recession in about six months. The same can be said for Canada 🇨🇦.

      Never forget the fact that 70% of our real GDP rate comes from Consumer Spending. Sundance is right that China 🇨🇳 front loaded a lot of their trinkets in the third quarter knowing that our 25% tariffs were going to begin on January 1st. Also keep in mind that China 🇨🇳 just recently began to buy our soybeans and pork. That will be felt in the 1st Quarter of 2019.

      The third and final estimate for the 3rd Quarter was released on Friday. The real GDP rate feel by 0.1% to 3.4%. A very solid number.

      You can find the report below:

      https://www.bea.gov/news/2018/gross-domestic-product-3rd-quarter-2018-third-estimate-corporate-profits-3rd-quarter-2018

      From the article linked above:

      The deceleration in real GDP growth in the third quarter primarily reflected a downturn in exports and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in PCE. Imports increased in the third quarter after decreasing in the second. These movements were partly offset by an upturn in private inventory investment.

      PCS IS ANOTHER LOOK AT INFLATION USING A DIFFERENT LENSE THAN CPI

      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.8 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the second quarter (table 4). The PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 1.6 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

      Last year the 4th Quarter was initially released at 2.6%. The 2nd Estimate had it fall to 2.5% while the 3rd and final Estimate was 2.9%.

      The Atlanta Federal Reserve currently is predicting the following for the 4th Quarter:

      Bottom line is that our President in his second year is going to accomplish what BHO couldn’t do in 8 miserable years and that is to have an Annual real GDP rate > 3% for 2018.

      The MSM, Democrats etc. will be out in full force on January 30th when it is released. They realize the optics are terrible when it never happened under BHO and the last time was 2005. They will tell you it was a sugar high from the Tax Reform Bill and that it will not be reached again because the world economy is contracting. They will point to the Markets to try and paint a picture.

      It is ALL a lie because Main Street is WINNING again and they account for 70% of our real GDP rate. As more and more businesses come home, more and more products are made here. Shrinking our imports while our exports will continue to rise because of the trade deals.

      We haven’t seen anything yet! It is a year or two away!

      Liked by 30 people

      • G. Alistar says:

        Still seeing “help wanted”signs all over the place. I think this is the central focus of the Trump Administration rather than all of the issues.

        Liked by 1 person

      • kinthenorthwest says:

        Do believe that through Trump our nation will prosper so much better.
        Most likely this is why the Democrats are so scared and so much more hateful lately.

        Liked by 3 people

      • getfitnow says:

        Thank you, fle.

        Liked by 2 people

      • notfaded1 says:

        I bought my last car from a Credit Union that gave a way better interest rate than a big bank would have. I’m loving every minute of the MAGA economy. I could also see people buying more this holiday season. More kids got more gifts this year under the tree biggly and Santa is a big hero for many children! It’s getting harder and harder to find good employees because everyone that wants a job has a job! I can already see the MSM plan… it’s really disheartening to see people be so un-American.

        America winning again means many of the others will be losing… it’s just a fact of life. It’s nice to have America have more have than have-nots again!

        Liked by 4 people

      • Bob at Wendys says:

        “Bottom line is that our President in his second year is going to accomplish what BHO couldn’t do in 8 miserable years and that is to have an Annual real GDP rate > 3% for 2018. ”
        Might be better to write out “greater than” vice “>”, some of the readers might not understand.

        Liked by 1 person

        • steph_gray says:

          Merry Christmas Bob – I think treepers in general are far more intelligent and educated than the average person, and would understand the greater-than symbol. Well, except for some of the media matters shills we get from time to time 😆!

          Thankfully a thread about winning like this usually does not attract them.

          Merry Christmas!

          Liked by 2 people

      • MM says:

        BHO HealthCare scam was also a massive drain on disposable income………

        Liked by 3 people

      • Trump Train says:

        Powell…………nuff said. get his ass out and reverse or …………..

        Liked by 1 person

      • G. Combs says:

        What they are missing is the ‘Local Multiplier Effect’

        Why the ‘Local Multiplier Effect’ Always Counts

        When money is shipped out of the USA either by illegals/ legals shipping money to relatives in a foreign country or a corporation buying foreign goods to sell in the USA, we in the USA LOSE the economic benefit of the ‘Local Multiplier Effect’

        A Hypothetical Example

        Imagine a hypothetical influx of money, say one million dollars, entering a local economy. Now imagine these dollars are spent on local goods and services. Imagine that each of the local vendors who earned those dollars then re-spends that money on more local goods and services. Envision this cycle happening several times before this money is finally spent on imports – goods or services from outside the region.

        In this case, those one million dollars recirculating eight times would act much like eight million dollars by increasing revenue and income opportunities for local producers….

        History and Impact

        Over the past 50 years, the expansion of national businesses into local domestic markets has diverted this vital monetary stream and redirected it to centralized corporate coffers. There it is spent on large capital expenditures, overseas goods and all too frequently inflated executive salaries. This interception of funds has depleted local towns and cities across our nation of an important source of funds: recirculated income.

        It has been estimated that about a century ago, thriving industrial communities had a LME in the high 20s or low 30s. Today it’s estimated to be in the single digits….

        Liked by 2 people

    • vincentcuomo says:

      Don’t tell the FED this as they may increase rates to 1000 percent.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. angellestaria6674 says:

    An amazing thought is that main street America, via shopping, is showing that it doesn’t care that Wall Street is rattled. Main Street is going about its daily business as if there were no Wall Street.

    Good day to you and yours, Sundance, and may you end your year well and begin your New Year even better!

    Getting to love your Treeper readers. Most comfortable site I’ve ever been on and commented on.

    Peace and good will to all here!

    Liked by 31 people

    • PoCoNoMo says:

      I too, I love it here, and feel very humbled to feel accepted by these people. I’ve learned so much, and believe me, when it comes to attempting to keep up with these guys… let’s just say I’m paddling as fast as I can!

      Liked by 11 people

    • Michael Todaro says:

      I agree entirely with angellestaria6674’s comment. I am new to this site where there are really smart, caring, well meaning people who actually have mind, and heart and soul. MAGA/KAG !

      Liked by 9 people

      • angellestaria6674 says:

        You will absolutely love it.

        Less arguing, trolls, hateful words, stupidity and a heck of a lot more love, care, intelligence and even good spiritual thought.

        I am not new to reading TCTH, but am rather recent to commenting.

        And I really love not having to deal with discus like so many other sites.

        Have a great New Year here, friend!

        Peace

        Liked by 4 people

    • Mark L. says:

      I do agree with your comments. CTH is the place to start the day. Great input from posters with utmost respect.

      Liked by 4 people

  3. Dutchman says:

    So, this report confirms that POTUS is succeding in reversing the exfiltration of wealth out of our country causing the TRILLIONS at sake, to flow INTO America (main street), instead of out of the country.
    After all, the,Trillions at stake that POTUS,IS ‘taking away’ from the multinationals have GOT to go somewhere, and THIS is confirmation of where!

    Liked by 18 people

  4. Elric VIII says:

    Now watch the Fed say that the strong retail sales (minus food and energy costs, naturally) indicate an uptick In inflation and raise the interest rate, thus throwing the stock market into another tizzy. The chicken littles in the media will be out in force. I am optimistic. The stock market will eventually correct itself and retirement portfolios will recover, especially the ones invested in actual investments rather than hedge funds and globalist strategy investments.

    Liked by 11 people

    • angellestaria6674 says:

      We don’t use the term spin doctor for nothing.

      It is an absolute law of MSM:

      Never, NEVER! say anything good about anything having to do with Donald Trump. And if he has done something good or even great, bite your tongue and be convinced in your media mind that there must, MUST! be a downside or something criminal about it. Otherwise, get busy at once to investigate and find a crime somewhere, with someone…anything…then spin the hell out of it. You might even win CNN’s journalist of the year award, even if you fabricate and make up stories…and possibly get a job reporting for Der Spiegel.

      That’s all folks!

      I feel better. Hope I put a little chuckle in your evening.

      Peace!

      Liked by 5 people

      • bertdilbert says:

        MSM will throw water on the sales numbers suggesting that there will be record returns….

        Liked by 1 person

      • Michael Todaro says:

        It has become something of a game to correctly guess, in advance, how the self loathing, scum bucket hacks will fling their uneaten poo as do monkeys in the zoo. Negative snark on WH Christmas decorations, Rudolph, baby Jesus in cage, “Baby It’s Cold Outside”, vanilla ice cream, booming economy, magnificent Melania’s fashion magic…It’s all bad. These are horrible people, scum really ! TV trash ! MAGA/KAG!

        Liked by 5 people

        • angellestaria6674 says:

          Well, had I read your comment first, especially your first sentence, I wouldn’t have needed to comment. You said it better.

          Peace

          Like

      • Cisco says:

        ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ Comment.
        Absolutely!
        Nothing, but nothing good shall be “reported about President Trump, his administration.
        And Melania?
        Harrumph.
        She has no sense of style.
        Certainly not like the ordained fashion icon, Da’ Mooch.

        Like

    • stats_guy says:

      The Dow futures are off about 200 right now…even in light of the good retail numbers.

      I looked at this stuff in some depth yesterday…esp looking at the yield spreads. This whole affair, as PT says, is in the lap of the Fed. Rattling on about increasing short term rates when the spreads are already thin is crazy…and that’s what Powell did. If we even had two rate increase in 2019 we’d basically have a flat, or maybe negative, yield curve.

      I graphed the spreads vs. the Russell all market index and sure enough ( as all good investors should know), negative yield curves lead to recessions. The Fed and the pols have worked themselves into a box. The 10-year doesn’t want to go much above 3 percent. Which means the short end needs to stay around 2..at most. (don’t get me wrong, I like fixed income)

      Powell is a lawyer by training. Pure swamp..if you look at his wikipedia. There are those that say that the Fed will sober up and not increase rates….we’ll see. And this is not to mention the Fed unwinding their Asset Sheet…which adds more supply to the pool of fixed income which forces rates down yet more (given a fixed demand).

      Everyone knew the Fed was going to be in a box. But the Fed needs to not go off half cocked about raising rates too fast.

      Liked by 7 people

      • montanamel says:

        Wall being built/added to in TX = Sploody heads go boom
        Bear Market level “could be seen this week”… -20% close
        Derivatives books go boom in many EU and NY banks…
        Wall street claims the sky is falling, but it’s just more fund mgr’s…
        DOJ-IG report due???…. Maybe time for document dump????
        Add butter to popcorn…put up feet…lean back….watch the show!
        Check-6

        Liked by 3 people

      • DGINGA says:

        I woke up to the politicization of the Fed during the Clinton years. Greenspan hated George H. W. Bush and raised interest rates unnecessarily during his administration, hurting the economy. Then, “miraculously” duuring the Clinton administration he kept interest rates artificially low, fueling the mortgage debacle that happened when another Bush moved into the White House. The artificially low interest rates were hugely inflationary, as evidenced by the double-digit annual increases in home prices. Yet the government and the Fed “massaged” the numbers (just like they did under Obama every quarter) making it appear that what we knew was happening wasn’t happening.

        Like

    • notfaded1 says:

      This is why my investments are all in small/mid/large cap US stocks.

      Like

      • Joshua2415 says:

        I’ve been out of stocks for decades. Couldn’t make sense of it at all once the machines took over trading. Now I buy dirt. Diversification for me is mixing rental income from single family homes in good school districts with investments in commercial / industrial space. It’s not sexy, but when I want to know how my investments are doing I don’t have to rely on what a broker is telling me. I can just drive by and have a look. It gives me more peace of mind than I could ever find on Wall Street.

        Liked by 2 people

    • Dude1394 says:

      I’m trying to figure out where those “actual” investments are.

      Like

  5. Raju says:

    Great time to buy and make some quick money in the market.

    Like

  6. rf121 says:

    I did my part and my wife for sure did hers. 🤑🤑🤑🤑🤑

    Liked by 6 people

  7. 335blues says:

    And the fed is trying, through interest rate hikes, to destroy the economy as a means of harming
    President Trump. Because for the marxist democrat party/ one world mafia
    the end justifies the means.

    Liked by 4 people

    • Snow White says:

      I hope they don’t suceed. They’ve done enough damage since October.

      Like

    • bertdilbert says:

      I am OK with the Fed raising rates and killing the mostly democrat over priced housing markets.

      Like

      • amwick says:

        So, I am the reminder of retired people that are getting hurt in the crossfire, OK??..
        I am not disagreeing with the idea of the housing market. But we don’t have a decade or even half a decade to recover. This is it for us.

        Liked by 2 people

        • amwick- THANK YOU for mentioning that inconvenient truth. I don’t have 5-10 years for my little IRA to make a comeback. As soon as I can I’m going to take out the money and put in CDs. Enough of this roller coaster.

          Liked by 1 person

          • amwick says:

            That may be the answer… a good thing to consider.. I think my husband wants to do something like that.. I still think 2019 may be better than SD and many others are speculating… My IRAs are managed… :/ I am not good at asserting myself.. and I know it.

            Like

        • Joshua2415 says:

          Before it was totally corrupted by the “Financial Crisis”, the FED’s stated objective was to keep inflation as low as possible consistent with full employment. Inflation is hovering somewhere around 2%. Unemployment is < 4%. The FED has managed to bring it's funds rate up from a ridiculous 0.75% when Trump was elected to an historically "normal" rate of 2.5% without (yet) causing a recession. This is not a tribute to the skill of the FED, it is a testament to the current strength of the "main street" economy.
          Since we are apparently stuck with the FED, it was right and smart for them to do what they have done over the last 2 years, but I see no data driven rationale for them to raise rates further now. Outside of Wall Street, we are in the economic sweet spot.
          The bigger problem for the future of stocks is likely the FED unwinding of it's obscenely high $4 TRILLION balance sheet. This process will literally suck out the cash that the fed pumped into the economy during the Obama years to artificially inflate asset prices. As a result, THERE WILL BE LESS CASH chasing stocks and other investments. Price will follow the lack of demand. I would not be surprised to see the FED announce a pause in their balance sheet reduction plan and to begin buying securities again if the market drop becomes politically perilous for them. It's anyone's guess how a big a drop it will take to compel that course change. We are obviously not there yet.

          Liked by 1 person

    • Dee Paul Deje says:

      And sometimes we don’t have to speculate because they just say it out loud:

      Liked by 1 person

    • smiley says:

      and if it doesn’t work this time…just wait til 2020.

      Liked by 1 person

  8. trapper says:

    “Last year’s 2017 holiday sales were approximately $598 billion as measured by Consumer Growth Partners. This year’s holiday sales look to be around $850 billion, as measured by the same data firm.”

    What!? Is that correct? That’s a 42% increase in sales over last year. If true, that is gargantuan!

    Liked by 2 people

    • smiley says:

      the higher interest rates will (negatively) effect the purchase power of big money items…like buying houses and cars ….just to name 2.

      Like

      • Joshua2415 says:

        Housing costs were a problem already before the fed started normalizing rates so it will bo doubt get worse before it gets better. On the flip side, there has probably never been a better time to buy a lightly used 3 year-old car. Dealerships are swamped with vehicles coming off lease. Millions of people took this route after they convinced themselves that they really could afford a $45,000 car. Now these cars are coming back in droves and dealers have to move them just to make space for the 2019’s. If for whatever reason you ever wanted to own a Lexus or BMW sedan, now is your chance.

        Liked by 1 person

  9. Franklin says:

    The problem with this number is what retail sales will be after the holiday shopping season. The consumer probably delayed purchases pending holiday sales and now that they made their purchase they are out of the retail sale market. The consumer may also have made his purchase on credit. They lack actual cash for the purchase and will have repay the debt over the next year.

    Liked by 1 person

    • lemmus1 says:

      …there you go folks …that will be the MSM spin on the huge numbers …we can always count on the Franklins here to give us the preview

      … the problem with this line is that it’s always going to be true no matter what the year or numbers are …and its therefore meaningless in assessing the year-over-year surge …just another Eeyore doing his best to darken an otherwise cloudless blue sky …imnsho of course

      Liked by 5 people

      • Franklin says:

        Sorry but I would like the whole story as to what we are seeing. “Ignore the man behind the curtain just accept the number” I don’t watch MSM because their information is misleading. Remember candidate Trump ran on the economy was in a bubble. Why did he appoint Powell if he knew the economy was in a bubble?

        Liked by 1 person

        • lemmus1 says:

          …President-elect Trump had to make ~4000 appointments to federal offices he would control …as an outsider, he had to depend to a large extent on the existing Republican infrastructure to identify, evaluate, offer, and nominate those people …as in any large enterprise, some didn’t cut the mustard …Powell is one of them …he came highly recommended …Mnuchin was one of those who recommended him …Mnuchin worked wonders but Powell failed …its only evident now just how bad a pick he was …but no one is perfect and that includes POTUS …POTUS has made his position clear …Powell defied him …the results of that are also clear …and despite all the MSM bs, POTUS has the explicit authority to remove any member of the Fed “for cause” …if Powell does not get on board, he will do exactly that …MSM and screams of ‘impeachment’ be damned

          Liked by 9 people

          • Franklin says:

            Excuses Excuses. One of the most important appointments if he truly believed we were in a bubble and disagreed with Fed policy is the appointment of a new Fed Chairman. Almost all executives rely on input for selecting critical staff. This sounds like he never discussed economic policy with Powell. This is not the Assistant to the Office of the Under Secretary. Billions of dollars are wiped out by ignorant decisions.

            Munchin may also be on the chopping block for his calls to the major banks.

            Like

            • lemmus1 says:

              …there you go again …always the Eeyore …never the POTUS has done far more for this economy than the past 4 combined …ok, I confess, the man isn’t quite the 2nd coming, he is after all, human …does that make your pea pickin’ little heart beat faster?

              Liked by 1 person

      • steph_gray says:

        For every person who delayed purchases until the holiday sales season, there will be two who delayed until the post-holiday season when sales will be even better.

        I am no expert on the market, but as a several-year retired person I am becoming quite good at watching for the sales and bargains! My shopping email account is stuffed with dozens of offers every day, and that doesn’t count the majority of those emails that I am currently sending to spam.

        Merry Christmas Franklin!

        Liked by 1 person

        • lemmus1 says:

          …long retired as well, I do minimal pre-Christmas shopping only for the wee ones who expect something under the tree …like you, and I expect a fair number of others here, I wait for the post Christmas sales to do my major shopping …it’s just common sense and grows every year now that we all know when the best prices will finally arrive

          …that said, it’s an annual thing now and it’s the total net sales from black friday to New Year’s aftermath that must be evaluated …not just isolated days and weeks within that period …and the comparison is from year to year, not day to day

          …and this year’s total net, so far, looks to be a staggering middle finger to all the Eeyores here and in the MSM who care only for wall street’s balance sheets and rarely for main street’s

          Like

    • Keep it real says:

      Here is everything that is wrong with your statement is indicated, you are stating nothing but opinion and speculation nothing with an actual fact behind it.
      .
      The consumer ((( probably – Meaning you think with no facts))) delayed purchases pending holiday sales and now that they made their purchase they are out of the retail sale market.
      (((The consumer may))) also have made his purchase on credit. (((They lack actual cash))) for the purchase and will have repay the debt over the next year.
      No damn numbers or statistics (Zero/Nothing) from you just left wing bullshit attacking the economy. Most retail purchases were made on Debit cards that are tied to bank accounts = MONEY in the bank. You leftist are freaking disgusting and are about the dumbest people on the planet you make up number to fit you narrative.

      https://lendedu.com/blog/cost-of-christmas/
      “Good news: The vast majority of Christmas celebrators, 72 percent, have zero intentions of going into any type of debt due to Christmas shopping.” 2018 Christmas …

      Like

  10. David Innes says:

    Looks like the Fed wasn’t able to steal Christmas after all.

    Liked by 6 people

  11. montanamel says:

    I am thinking that these “figures” are going to be a top-item on everyone’s plate in the AM…just before the NY market opens… Amazon must be part of that 26% from Online, but everyone else is part of the overall growth…Just this amount of “jaw-bone’ could be enough to flatten out this waterfall now happening…ie; stop the free fall.
    Wonder what these numbers will mean to the China panda/dragon??? Can they see just how fricked they truly are?…
    Another 100 miles of border wall being started is going to set off the “Sploody Heads” again too.
    Isn’t it about time for the DOJ-IG to be heard from…to see how fubar’ed his report on ‘ol Cackles’ is going to be — setting the stage for those “documents” to hit the table unredacted, eh?…

    AND…of course, we only have 6 days until the wonderful “Military Tribunal” EO hits the floor running and gunning!… Everyone buy stock in “popcorn producers” and “beverage bottler’s” this is going to be one hellof a show … Check-6

    Liked by 2 people

    • David Innes says:

      If there were military tribunals, and Mattis were in charge of them, he would probably put President Trump on trial for putting America and Americans ahead of his muslin friends in Afcrapistan and Syria as well as moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem..

      Like

  12. Deplorable_Infidel says:

    “Bottom Line: U.S. companies who have actual connection to a growing U.S. economy can succeed; based on the advantages of the new economic environment and MAGA policy, specifically in the areas of manufacturing, trade and the ancillary consumer benefactors.”

    I give thanks for our President and his family, along with the supporters and staff of CTH for one-stop “shopping” for political and economic news that I can trust.

    1Thessalonians 5:18 In every thing give thanks: for this is the will of God in Christ Jesus concerning you.

    Liked by 5 people

  13. Matt Transit says:

    I sincerely hope that Main Street will overcome Wall Street, for the better, and for the common good of this Nation.
    I’m just not optimistic enough to believe, that self centered politicians, will read the signs of the times, and get on board, and realize it’s time to answer to the communities they were elected to “represent”.
    But I continue to pray for President Trump, his family and this nation!

    Liked by 5 people

  14. Fools Gold says:

    Are you saying the P&E ratio might really mean something in the MAGANOMICS world these days? Imagion US companies at 40 or higher in the near future.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. Ghost says:

    Observations from a smaller limb.

    A 19th century concept using 20th century tools in a 21st century world.

    Wall street doesn’t adapt as fast as main street. I’ll provide an example using capital street versus main street from the 1970’s early 80’s . Gas lines, waiting different days to be able to get in lines. Double digit; inflation, interest rates and unemployment. Stagflation; welcome to the misery index.

    Capital street. Washington D.C. Main Street, us. Incredibly high tax rates. When you went to your local business man, contractor, retail it didn’t matter what type of business you got 3 prices. On books, semi on books and off books. The IRS chief testified that as much as 20% of the U.S. economy was off book transactions. He also stated it was growing quickly but there wasn’t anything they could do. He recommended that they institute Reagan’s Tax cuts.

    Today. I don’t know how but as main street continues its growth it will find an effective way to deal with the transition to the main street economy, globalist will not be able figure this out. They are locked into their world view as tightly as is they were chained. Every thing the Fed tries will not work until they refocus on benefiting main street. Meanwhile their actions will hurt wall street and the globalist the most. PDJT has thought this through.

    The 21’st century means people and companies from all over the world in small transactions are buying U.S. treasuries. They have an outlook that their economies are sinking and now with computers they can act. Welcome to interest rate inversion version 2.0.

    When the globalist set up their expatriation of U.S. wealth plan the things they used to facilitate it will now work against them. Energy cost not in inflation calculations, now it means an added cash flow bonus to main street. Almost like an additional tax cut. We begin exporting energy welcome to trade balance inflows. Then toss in lower production costs.

    The next question becomes what will the fed do in March when their next hike is supposed to happen. I’ll be looking at international cash flows over the next 5 weeks to figure out what additional harm they did to the globalist if only because they haven’t figured out Sundances divergent economic theory, read fact!

    Relax, yes it is going to turbulent. At times Chaotic and certainly messy. Reading economic history and past correlations won’t work, because we haven’t been here before.
    Pass the popcorn please.

    Liked by 7 people

    • lemmus1 says:

      ^^^^^^THIS!^^^^^^

      Like

    • PgtSndThinker says:

      @Ghost, (I pay attention to your posts) …”we haven’t been here before…” my family doesn’t believe me when I try to explain that conventional wisdom regarding the stock market and economy is useless now. Too bad I don’t have $$ to put my money on the line and show them by example.

      Liked by 1 person

  16. Paula Daly says:

    Hope they pay off their CC when the statements come. Get out of debt folks.

    Liked by 3 people

  17. wodiej says:

    We don’t need more “stuff”. We need more kindness.

    Like

    • Michael Todaro says:

      It will take a massive infusion of kindness to counteract 2,000,000,000 moslems on the planet. They fall into 2 categories: 1) Active, psychopath jihadists and 2) Temporarily inactive, psychopath Manchurian candidates cheer leading for the jihadists. We now have this in the USA congress. MAGA/KAG !

      Liked by 3 people

    • johnny dollar says:

      Tooo much stuff!!

      Liked by 1 person

    • steph_gray says:

      I think in the American population as a whole we have plenty of kindness.

      There is also plenty of it in the silent middle-class majority populations of Europe and many other places.

      Where we don’t have it is in governments.

      Except, today, in our White House.

      Liked by 1 person

  18. Ospreyzone says:

    “That financial and economic risk is the basic reason behind Trump and Mnuchin putting a protective, secondary and parallel, banking system in place for Main Street.”

    If this is true, then it runs directly counter to one of the primary reasons the Federal Reserve was concocted in the first place, – to crush competition and protect the most powerful banking institutions. Now, that might explain why the banking cartel, aka Federal Reserve, is so very anxious to pull away the punchbowl just as PDJT’s economic party is getting started.

    Think about it. If the Fed can virtually wipe out the retirement savings of America’s working class by spiking interest rates for no apparent reason, as they are effectively doing, then how many seniors and how many of the 42-million people currently working to build their 401ks will have the nerve to ask for more in 2020?

    …And, if you think for even one minute that corrupt, low-down, bottom-feeding, eel-like democrats wouldn’t fully support and cheerlead the Fed in its ill-conceived mission, if it facilitates the end of PDJT, well then I have some nice bottom-land near the everglades I’d like to sell you.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. TwoLaine says:

    “Wall Street is running around like a chicken with its head cut off, while Mr. and Mrs. Main Street are happy with their jobs, enjoying their best wage increases in a decade”…

    ~ Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners

    s/b: Wall Street and Washington, D.C. are running around like chickens with their heads cut off,…

    Like

  20. Futures up 113 right now. Of course, J. Powell could start yapping and bring it down in one breath.

    Like

  21. MILupper says:

    Question for those smarter than me.
    Is Powell unloading the 10 year treasuries from the fed balance sheet while holding the 2-5 year treasuries to intentionally invert the yield curve?
    Just saw the 5 yr is 2.577% and the 10yr is 2.726.

    Like

  22. notfaded1 says:

    They can try but it’s really going to be hard stop the MAGA Trump train I believe. For the first time in my lifetime having a real business man in the White House is making mainstreet whole again. Say hello to my little friends is right! VSG has now MAGA and now it’s up to all of us to help him KAG. Let’s hope we can site and watch the dems make the same mistake the GOP did with their investigations… let’s face it… the far left isn’t a huge group. If VSG despite the MSM can keep most of the GOP and keep winning over independents… he’ll sail into 2020. I just don’t think Pelosi with the hammer can help herself. The next few weeks are going to be really telling. I think we need to strap on the seatbelts and hold on because it’s going to be bumpy ride.

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      You are so right that the far left isn’t a huge group.

      Annnndd it’s shrinking – to which the volume of its shrieking increases in proportion!

      Like

  23. Ghost says:

    Ospreyzone says:

    “Think about it. If the Fed can virtually wipe out the retirement savings of America’s working class by spiking interest rates for no apparent reason, as they are effectively doing, then how many seniors and how many of the 42-million people currently working to build their 401ks will have the nerve to ask for more in 2020? ”

    No they can’t !! Welcome to the 21st century. As they push, they can get a short term downturn. However funds from around the world seek a safe haven, this will flood the U.S. with additional capital. No matter how much they hurt the U.S. stock market they will kill the European and oriental markets. After a short term those funds will bolster and rebound the U.S. markets.

    A whole new type of disintermediation is actually occurring. They haven’t recognized it yet. It is 21st century phenomena unseen. Want to know a great investment in the rest of the world. U.S, Treasuries. If their currency falls 8% to10% and most have since the beginning of January someone in Europe or the far east is getting a net return of 12% or better with unparalleled safety.

    Next up will be the U.S. stock market. We are not talking wealthy people, just smart upper middle class and small business men trying to hold on to their hard earn money, no matter what currency it originated in. U.S. tech may take a big hit but stocks associated with main street are going to excel.

    U.S. employment continues to rise more people, particularly the young will invest in 401K’s for the first time. Their outlook will be long term additional inflows to the markets reigniting the bulls. We have a generation of young who never seen anything but the Bush, Obama disastrous economies coming to the party for the first time in there lives.

    The Stock Market will rebound, many will for the first time in more than a decade will enter the housing market. This is going to fun to watch. It doesn’t happen overnight stop worrying about this week and look to next quarter or 6 months. It won’t take long. Fed capitulation is coming soon

    Liked by 2 people

  24. DT2020 says:

    Investment companies would do good to re-orient investments of their clients. I imagine this is what Mnuchin talked to them about.

    Like

  25. Mongoose says:

    I don’t mean to rain on everyone’s parade, BUT … “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.” – Dean Vernon Wormer, “Animal House”

    Yes, things are better on main street, for the moment. But the enemy is massive, everywhere, and unrelenting. They are not sitting back letting this roll over them without a fight. And what is main street doing … heading to the mall!! Yeah, that’s right. Heading to the mall and racking up the debt.

    Instead of battening down the hatches and preparing for the fight to come, and it will come, because Trump and his people are surrounded, what will main street do to support him when the politicians everywhere are intent on taking away more rights, 2A, then 1A and they plan to “go full retard” when they take over Congress next January? What then?

    eh, never mind, let’s go buy more crap at the mall.

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      There is nothing wrong with buying at the mall as long as the buyers do it out of their newly increased income and don’t incur debt. In fact if I understand the experts here, it helps GDP.

      Yes I know plenty of Americans don’t know better about that. But plenty do. I have not incurred credit card debt for about 30 years. Pay in full every month – best economic thing I ever learned to do.

      Like

    • 4EDouglas says:

      Ah the Republican/Trump group has two of the three branches of Governemnt, there are less RINO. Trump gains the senate. RBG is sick. He will make the Fed come to heel. Lyn’ Ryan is gone-replaced by a crazy old bag-lady.
      We are not dead yet..No will we give up.
      The battle of ’18 is done the battle 0f ’20 is about to begin…

      Like

    • Lulu says:

      Yes, we wouldn’t want people to buy Christmas presents or support businesses that employ people.

      Like

  26. DGINGA says:

    Sundance, thank you so much for this article. For the past six weeks I have been left scratching my head about why the companies I have invested in are dropping so dramatically! The fundmentals are there. Sales are increasing, revenues are increasing, profits are increasing, dividends are increasing – yet the stock prices on my portfolio dropped 25% in one month! It makes no sense!

    As an economics major I have always based my investment decisions on the company fundamentals. Makes for a conservative portfolio, but helps me avoid the bubbles bursting. I’ve never understood investing in most tech stocks where the company produces nothing, loses buckets of money every quarter, never pays a dividend, and yet is the darling of Wall Street. Maybe I miss out on massive short term profits that way, but I also miss the bubble bursting.

    Thank you also for the simple explanation of the impact of hedge funds and derivatives on the overall market. My BIL works in investment banking and could not explain that part of the business to me (apparently he doesn’t get it). Now I understand why the Wall Street analysts’ PREDICTIONS about a company’s performance are suddenly so much more important than the ACTUAL performance or the company’s own projections. It’s so people can gamble based on some 25-year-old analyst’s thoughts instead of investing based on history and real data. I’ve always noticed, but never understood, that when a company “underperforms” analyst projections it’s never the analyst who is wrong. The company is always cast as incompetent.

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      I’ve always noticed, but never understood, that when a company “underperforms” analyst projections it’s never the analyst who is wrong. The company is always cast as incompetent.

      Hmm – you mean, successful businesses are treated by the yellowstream media including the so-called financial media and “analysts,” the same way they treat successful non-leftist businesspeople?

      You mean, like the way they routinely treat the best of the best in that regard: VSGPDJT?

      Funny how that works…

      Hatred of success, business, the free market, private enterprise, prosperity, and freedom. All hand in hand.

      Like

  27. JonB3 says:

    Still, I don’t like what Jerome Powell is doing ~ We had virtually ZERO rate hikes under Obozo’s eight years … And now we’ve had what … EIGHT in less than tow years under PT ~ The perception is Not Good

    Like

    • steph_gray says:

      Agree 100% with this, Jon. The Fed is part of the problem.

      Like

    • DGINGA says:

      I just looked at a chart of the Fed’s actions since the 1970’s. It wasn’t until Clinton took office that they lowered rates and kept them very low for eight years, fueling the highly inflationary housing bubble. If the Fed is to be believed and they aren’t political, then the media is completely backward and we must have been in a serious recession from 1992 to 2000. Once Bush is in office they start raising rates over time, and when all of those ARM loans start adjusting the housing market and the economy blow up. In 2008 Obama takes over and the Fed lowers rates, keeping them low for eight years, despite the media happy talk about how wonderful the Obama economy is. 2016, Trump is elected and the Fed immediately starts raising rates. So either the Fed IS political or else Democrat presidents always tank the economy and Republican presidents are always good for the economy. HMMM… maybe both. Either way, George Soros makes money.

      Like

  28. repsort says:

    MOAR DEBT! Woohoooo!
    Rack up them CC’s baby!

    Like

  29. Frank says:

    My spending this season was about 10 times what it was in previous years, due to having a good job and earning good wages for the first time in a very long time. I probably won’t spend like a sailor next year, but this one was a celebration of this new and better life. God bless America and Donald J. Trump.

    Like

  30. Luke of the D says:

    The economy is roaring! Everyone has a job (and this is the first Christmas no one in my family is not un-employed)! Everyone purchased gifts for everyone else! And not a peep about politics at the Christmas dinner! The government shut-down might as well have not happened at all, as far as anyone I know is concerned. I even went to a Lions v. Vikings game (my Lions got creamed) and no anti-American kneelers and everyine was on their feet with their hands on their hearts fir the anthem! Democrat anti-American doom and gloom, racial division, anti-human, bullshite has failed spectacularly! God bless America! And God bless President Trump and his wonderful family!

    Liked by 1 person

  31. ARTHUR says:

    Hurray! Oorah! Hooah! Huzzah! More debt slaves. Celebrating the major anti-free speech usury institutions who’ve been pressuring payment services to cut their services to a certain political spectrum who they’ve ‘branded’ as their enemies. People such as those who support the nationalism of our Constitutional Republic of the United States of America or those not towing the line of the Global Collectivist Death Cult that we now call simply the ‘Deep State’. Excuse me if I don’t buy into your glib narrative fiction of the real world. Most people are aware of that bubble being about to burst. But then if my condition was terminal I’d be using that card more as well.

    Like

    • sundance says:

      You do realize Mastercard is a payment processing system, and not a reflection of consumer debt right?

      Mastercard is a financial processor for electronic payments (debit and credit are only two) from consumers to retailers.

      Like

      • ARTHUR says:

        Why yes sundance I do know exactly what I wrote. But are you saying you have additional statistics that relate to this article? Such as whether those consumers relied more on credit or cash to make their holiday purchases?

        Do you understand the relationship between MasterCard and Patreon and why Patreon is denying their services strictly over ideological “branding” due to MasterCard’s corporate leverage? Do you think any type of payment processing systems should deny their services due to a person’s ideological position? Or based on who they voted for?

        Like

  32. Bendix says:

    Anecdotal evidence, I avoided shopping as much as possible just before Christmas, but when I did visit a big box store, there seemed to be more young adult black men working than I usually see.
    The failed racial division Luke refers to above, that was certainly the case in my area, everything was even more harmonious than usual.
    Nothing like seeing a future for oneself to make an American cheerful.

    Like

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