Interesting dynamics at play. President Trump has announced via Twitter the U.S. advance team has arrived in North Korea to position for a possible June 12th summit between President Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un.
Yesterday South Korean Prime Minister Moon Jae-in and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un held an impromptu summit/meeting in the DPRK to display their unified smiles.
The influence agent, Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping, has been unusually quiet since President Trump asserted that Chairman Xi was the agent provocateur behind Kim Jong-un’s diplomatic bi-polarism. Apparently, Chairman Xi did not anticipate President Trump being so public with the sunlight; and there’s no way Xi anticipated the economic consequences POTUS Trump outlined in the 232 Auto-Sector review.
It’s a smart strategy for Team USA to engage with Team Rocketman while a Chinese trade visit from U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross looms on the Beijing calendar, June 2nd. Given the tenuously adversarial position Chairman Xi has boxed himself into, the dragon would be unwise to stir the pot until after Secretary Ross delivers his trade terms.
Chairman Xi has only one way out of the current box. However, if Xi were to move Kim into an aggressive proxy position too soon, like now, Secretary Ross would likely unload on the economic consequences come June 2nd. Rut roh,… dragon thrashing amid panda box.
China has recently violated the terms of the August 2017 U.N. economic sanctions against North Korea. Economic Panda is naked to his enemies. The consequences outlined and enhanced by the U.S. in support of those U.N. sanctions was a threat to cut off any violating country from the U.S. banking system and economic engagement therein.
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Ross and POTUS Trump didn’t respond to the recent China/DPRK violations because Rocketman was moving in the right direction. However, the economic consequences now loom like a sword of Damocles if Chairman Xi attempts to move Kim Jong-un again.
In the big picture we can see how President Trump has moved Xi away from having influence. Against this strategic success, with Chairman Xi sidelined, President Trump is now in position to be more assertive in his presentations toward a Korean peace process.
Moon Jae-in and Kim Jong-un can play happy sandwich makers and without knowing it they are quietly protected by the strategy President Trump has constructed.
If Xi attempts to break up the happily dancing Korea brothers, President Trump tells Secretary Ross to cut the horsehair and the sword of Damocles falls on the Chinese economy.