U.S. Housing Starts Increase 13.7% In October – September Figures Adjusted Higher…

There is a notable intent to talk down the economy amid almost all financial news providers.  However, despite their negative tone the economic reality continues to surpass their Eeyore disposition.

October’s U.S. housing starts jumped +13.7% to 1.29 million units and now begins to catch up with the underlying economic data.

You’ll note CTH discussed how housing would be regionally specific as the larger Main Street MAGAnomic policies were implemented.

Capital expenditures by home builders and home purchasers are the biggest financial decisions for most American workers.

Due to the deliberate factors involved, home purchasing is the largest railroad car in the economic train; it is also positioned in the rear of the economic sequencing.  However, when home building takes off the entire economic train gains momentum.

(Via Reuters) […] The sharp rebound in home construction reported by the Commerce Department on Friday was also driven by robust gains in the Northeast and Midwest regions.

The broad recovery could ease concerns about the housing market, which has been a drag on economic growth since the second quarter. The report added to labor market, manufacturing and retail sales data that have pointed to strong economic momentum as the year winds down.

“Homebuilders are building and that signals greater confidence in the economy ahead,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “Housing construction has been the missing link in the puzzle over why investment spending has lagged in this recovery.”

Housing starts surged 13.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.29 million units. That was the highest level since October 2016 and also the second-best reading in 10 years. September’s sales pace was revised up to 1.135 million units from the previously reported 1.127 million units.

[…]  Housing starts in the South soared 17.2 percent in October to 621,000 units, with single-family construction vaulting 16.6 percent to its highest level since 2007. There were also increases in homebuilding in the Midwest and Northeast.

“The pace of building came back stronger than before the storms hit, which suggests the increase from recovery may have already started in fourth quarter,” said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities in Charlotte, North Carolina.

October’s increase in starts ended three straight months of declines, leading economists to expect that housing would contribute to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. (read more)

Remember what we said about where the single-family home increases would surface.  Again, it’s all related to the larger focus within economic policy:

Home values and local economic factors will be driven by “regional” economies. Period.

The exact same areas of the country which have gone through two decades of economic contraction will now see economic expansion and revitalization. The Fed policy which influences Wall Street was not, and is not, domestic centric. The fed policy is corporate driven, globalist in influence.

Industrial areas with affordable housing and infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

…Well:

Housing starts in the South soared 17.2 percent in October to 621,000 units, with single-family construction vaulting 16.6 percent to its highest level since 2007.

[…] Single-family home building, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, increased 5.3 percent to a rate of 877,000 units in October, the highest level in eight months.

Single-family starts fell 22.4 percent in the Northeast and slipped 7.7 percent in the West. They rose 7.8 percent in the Midwest.

[…] October’s increase in starts ended three straight months of declines, leading economists to expect that housing would contribute to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. (link)

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43 Responses to U.S. Housing Starts Increase 13.7% In October – September Figures Adjusted Higher…

  1. I would celebrate more if I knew all those construction jobs were going to people legally eligible to work.

    Liked by 12 people

    • woodstuff says:

      Those contractors in residential building trades for framing, tile, roofing, concrete, etc. have been displaced by Mexican contractors who low-balled bids. White and black contractors “left the building” a decade ago. Asian and and ME contractors never worked much in building. (it’s a different ball game with large commercial buildings-bonds, insurance, unions, etc.)

      Learning a building trade is a steeper learning curve than many realize. It ain’t that simple and it takes years of experience to learn many procedures.

      A new generation of workers is needed in the building field, but I haven’t seen them coming along. I haven’t seen any come to me to seek apprenticeship, and I haven’t seen many employees at other shops who had an attitude to learn or work with diligence.

      I have a hard time finding a worker who will actually show up.

      It may some time until the next generation comes around. I eagerly await someone coming into my shop who will “work as unto the Lord”

      Liked by 13 people

      • Your Tour Guide says:

        Woodstuff: Amen.
        You are describing why a long time family friend took early retirement.
        General contractor. Built commercial structures, generally less then about
        10,000 square feet. In Ohio.

        Guy’s own words: “Loved the first 25 years of work. Hated the last 5.
        No one under 30 is worth a shit. Don’t show up to work. If they do, they’re
        often drunk. Won’t even show up for crunch time in the fall. When you have
        to put in the footers and pour the foundations before the ground freezes.
        I’m over it.” Guy sold out a newly constructed headquarters building ( 6
        years old). Seventeen trucks, various heavy equipment. A 6000 square
        foot warehouse worth of tools. Never looked back. This was in the mid
        80s. The workers he was complaining about were white. There were
        basically little or no Mexican workers in Dayton, Ohio at the time.

        It’s up to us to pick up the ball and re-establish the American work ethic.
        Trump is making the jobs. We need to work on having people having
        the right attitude to work them.

        Liked by 12 people

        • LBB says:

          Sounds a lot like the conversation of Contractor who poured my concrete patio a few years back. His other beef, freshly educated who come in , with no time under their belt, and tell everyone the correct way to do it.

          I knew a few in the construction field who were forced to find another profession. Once the 6-8 years went by, they were already disillusioned to return to the physically demanding trade.

          Liked by 3 people

        • Michael says:

          I’m from east Dayton. When I go back feels like just another 3rd world country.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Your tour guide says:

            That’s due to the crazy lady mayor “requesting” an allotment
            of Syrian refugees. East Dayton was the lucky pick for the
            allotment. My younger brother keeps me updated on all things
            Dayton.

            MIchael: say hi to the Trolley Stop when you go back. A big
            part of me had ties to that place back in the early 80s. Spent
            many a great evening watching Dow and Astrid there back
            in the day.

            Like

      • trialbytruth says:

        My son gives me the same or port the union concrete steel and carpenters are all in their 40s and 50s.No new blood. Schools are pushing college nobody talks to the kids about skilled trades. My son has a couple communication s classes in college other then that he was on his tools then strawbossing now project manager 35 yes old 225k this year . you have to want it you have to work for it (he works 65 hours a week) a couple more moves up the ladder and the money gets real good for playing golf LOL

        Liked by 7 people

        • woodstuff says:

          “Schools are pushing college nobody talks to the kids about skilled trades”

          I went to work as a cabinetmaker/carpenter in ’96, in a school district. I traveled to all the schools and watched as the building trades classes were scrapped. This was done nationally, as evidenced by the auctions of school machinery took place. It was sad to see.

          Perhaps the children and/or grandchildren of trades people learned, but most kids didn’t know which end of a hammer to grab.

          Liked by 5 people

      • annieoakley says:

        I tried so hard to find a roofer who would not send a completely illegal crew to put on a new roof. No luck. Just had it repaired instead. It isn’t leaking and shakes stand up to hail well.

        Liked by 4 people

      • Shark24 says:

        My older brother at 74 years old doing his part by mentoring his 20 something grandson in the plumbing trade. He could hang it up but is staying in the game to bring along this next generation. The good news is that grandson is one of the sharpest and hardest workers he’s ever had.

        Like

  2. Stringy theory says:

    I live south of Richmond Virginia and new houses are going up around me like there’s no tomorrow. The housing boom is on for sure.

    Liked by 6 people

  3. Publius2016 says:

    Yes, there’s is definitely restructuring going on…the Fools in Congress better get it together…Dems make a deal and enjoy the benefits…otherwise state and local taxes exemptions are going the way of the dodo bird!

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Minnie says:

    Well done, Mr. President, well done!

    🇺🇸🦁🇺🇸🦁🇺🇸🦁🇺🇸❤️

    Liked by 5 people

  5. Minnie says:

    Also seeing more rip-outs and build-outs around my parts than in recent past.

    Americans are hopeful, again!!

    Liked by 3 people

  6. booger71 says:

    Add one more..breaking ground by the 1st of the year on a new house. Contractor is a young local guy and he he hires no illegals or hires any subs that employ illegals.

    Liked by 11 people

  7. paulraven1 says:

    Here’s the thing about the psychology of a booming economy we often fail to understand or forget: it has less effect on voters than a bad economy. Complacency should in fact be a concern. People quickly forget why or how the good times arrived, or who brought them about, and sooner rather than later assume that such conditions are a given. Indeed, it often gives a lot of people a dispensation — psychological permission — to exercise the luxury of the urge toward more social liberalism.

    Liked by 9 people

    • No truer words have ever been spoken Paul….we humans are a self-absorbed lot and oh so easily distracted….that’s why history keeps repeating itself.

      Liked by 5 people

    • Cuppa Covfefe says:

      Look at the Old Testament (and even the New, for that matter). The Israelites would follow the same pattern, over and over. They’d get “fat and happy”, lazy, fall into idolatry and forget GOD who gave them everything (incuding repeated forgiveness), and end up being enslaved or otherwise punished for their misdeeds. Then, they’d pray and repent, in sackcloth and ashes, GOD would forgive and restore them, and, sad to say, the cycle would repeat.

      You’d think we’d learn, somehow or other…

      Liked by 4 people

    • WSB says:

      That is the good news about PT. He gets the word out!

      Like

  8. Every time that President Trump sets a milestone or surpasses expectations he becomes more dangerous to the uni-party.
    They will do ANYTHING to derail the Trump-Train; as sundance often reminds us “There are trillions of dollars at stake”

    They are more likely to sabotage America’s advancements than to see president Trump succeed….if he succeeds they lose money and power.

    Oh, how good they had it and how close they came until that darned elevator ride kicked them in the ass!

    Liked by 3 people

  9. n1ghtcr4wler says:

    the people who have the money fleeing the hellholes where the government drops the 1 million muslims a year have to live someplace

    Liked by 2 people

    • Your Tour Guide says:

      “The money to flee the hellholes”. By design. Targeted areas are almost alway
      low end of upper middle class. Because they have the money to move. And the
      usual suspects have the land ( bought up on the cheap) and homes waiting and
      ready for them. Their buddies get to finance the schools, churches, parks,
      shopping centers, municipal buildings, sewers, and roads to greet them once they
      make the move.

      In Atlanta: Dekalb created Rockdale and Suwanee area of Gwinnett in the 70s.
      East Point, College Park created Clayton County around the same time.
      In the 80s Six Flags area created Douglas County,, South Dekalb County
      created Redan area. In the 90s, Stone Mountain area of Dekalb created
      Snellville, Lawrenceville, Lilburn in Gwinnett County. Closer in Clarkston
      and Tucker created Cherokee County. ( Informal observation from literally
      hundreds of persons I’ve spoken to over the years.)

      When I meet a long time Atlantan, I often ask where they live, and how
      long they’ve been in the metro area. If it’s a “move to” area, I generally
      will make a guess on where they moved from. I’m right about 80% of
      the time.

      Liked by 3 people

  10. fleporeblog says:

    This paragraph from the article SD linked above really got me excited:

    October’s increase in starts ended three straight months of declines, leading economists to expect that housing would contribute to gross domestic product in the fourth quarter.

    We are a full month and a half into the 4th Quarter which ends on December 31. The Atlanta Federal Reserve has just updated their 4th Quarter GDP Forecast today. They currently are predicting 3.4%.

    However, with the information released today about Housing you can expect that prediction to skyrocket.

    The Economic Train left the station on January 20, 2017! It had been sitting idle for the previous 8 years. Now that it is rolling across our country, it will not be stopped. There is absolutely nothing that the Democrats, Rhinos, MSM, CoC, Big Club, Barry from Kenya, Globalists etc. can do to slow it down.

    Our President predicted that by the end of his first year in office, he would have our annual GDP at 3%. People absolutely laughed about his prediction. They aren’t laughing anymore! I am seeing more and more evidence that the annual GDP WILL hit 3%. Here’s why:

    1st Quarter (Jan 1 – March 31) – Our final GDP was a miserable 1.2% since Barry was still in office for 20 days and our President began to implement his Energy Dominance and kill regulations.

    2nd Quarter (April 1 – May 31) – Our final GDP was 3.1%.

    3rd Quarter (June 1 – September 30) – Initial release had GDP at 3.0%. Please keep in mind that the initial 1st Quarter was 0.8% before going up to 1.2% and the initial 2nd Quarter started at 2.8% before going up to 3.1%. I anticipate the final GDP for the 3rd Quarter to be 3.3% (We will see the revised number on November 29th).

    That would mean the following:

    1.2 + 3.1 + 3.3 + 4.4 = 3% GDP FOR 2017!

    Keep in mind that the Hurricanes that hit Texas and Florida cost the 3rd Quarter 0.8%. As construction begins in those areas (as we are now seeing), we could see the 4th Quarter propelled. Just the fact that I am writing this means our President has done an AMAZING job in his first year!

    He is ABSOLUTELY MAGA!

    By the way, for all those that want to give credit to their messiah, here is the garbage that he produced over his 8 MISERABLE years! You can run but you can’t hide!

    Liked by 10 people

  11. Just a tidbit from the frozen tundra of liberal Minnesota(only in the TwinCities and Iron Range). I have worked in construction most of my life after the Navy. The last eight years have been awful, seriously affecting my retirement plans(I’m 64 next month) The last eight months have been borderline chaotic just trying to keep all the jobs I committed to, in play. All contractors are looking for experienced subs, two to three month backlogs are common in certain professions. Pay is increasing slowly but unquestionably. Optimism at work is palpable. Homeowners are spending money on their homes again after sitting on their wallets for 10 years. So many have been doing just bare maintenance and now realize updates are long overdue.

    I have changed my plans to retire. 70 doesn’t look that impossible and I definitely don’t want to miss out on the MAGA boom. Thank you Mr. President. May God protect you from our enemies, especially the domestic ones.

    Liked by 22 people

    • Sylvia Avery says:

      So glad to hear this. Good for you! Blessings.

      Liked by 4 people

    • woodstuff says:

      I plan to go on past 75 if my body holds out. Maybe longer if I feel good. I work at what I do because it is a passion for me; it’s not the only thing that I know how to do. So I’m 69 now and I admit that when I get older, I will probably pick and choose my customers and jobs more, as well as work in a more leisurely manner.

      Liked by 5 people

    • bsdetector4u says:

      My husband, who just turned 60, is a dirt contractor in the liberal Pacific Northwest. His business has boomed in the last few years (we are experiencing a housing shortage due to the tech industry). This year was better than the year before and with President Trump in office, we look forward to more of the same in the coming years. He even invested in a new excavator right after President Trump was elected thinking the economy could support the sizeable investment – and the economy in our area isn’t slowing down! He is also planning on working till he’s 70 if his body holds up.

      We are so thankful to have a president that is business-minded and a regulation slasher. With President Trump in office, our future looks exceptionally bright!

      Liked by 3 people

    • Shar says:

      Homeowners spending money is right. After 14 years in a builder/developer quality kitchen that is now 25 years old we are starting to do a half remodel. All new appliances Monday. (Loved the Black Friday specials.) Floors, countertops and sink in the spring. I had intended to do that within a few years of purchasing but put it on indefinite hold with the crash.

      Liked by 5 people

  12. JC says:

    Love it that our President wears a hard hat. We have needed a builder for decades, and we are already reaping the concrete benefits (‘s’cuse the play on words) of his vast experience and excellent leadership. Mr. President, millions of us continue to pray for you for strength, safety, wisdom and joy as God holds you in the palm of His Hand.

    Liked by 6 people

  13. An American says:

    Note to all……All this surge in the economy has been accomplished by President Trump, he himself with the Lord’s assist and, without the do nothing Congress! Just think where this country would be today if everyone was pulling together.

    Liked by 5 people

  14. Ditch Mitch says:

    This is great news! Home building is a lagging indicator. Gotta have a job to buy a house. And gotta have investment/expansion to get jobs going.

    SD, thanks for the “regionally specific” link as a reminder of the Fed fighting itself. Yellen was replaced because printing money and keeping interest rates down artificially are not what MAGANOMICS needs. From the Washington Times:

    “Mr. Powell will take over from Ms. Yellen the delicate task of unwinding the Fed’s bloated balance sheet and pushing up interest rates to historically “normal” levels, while not choking off a humming U.S. economy”

    Liked by 2 people

  15. PgtSndThinker says:

    I quite enjoyed constructing our Single Family residence. Couldn’t make a career out of it since I’m a tiny bit over the hill and the wrong gender (literally not strong enough to do the heavy lifting). I do hope employers in all industries finally feel brave enough to hire middle aged workers and train new people in this happy economy.

    Liked by 4 people

  16. William Friday Buckley's Ghost says:

    The Mexican construction crews use fraudulent workers compensation certifications covering a few workers but employing dozens. Worker’s compensation insurance premiums run 30% of payroll and more. Often times corrupt insurance agents facilitate the scam. Meanwhile, the “off the books” payroll eliminates another 15% for FICA and any income tax withholding. The general contractor cuts an oversized check to the subcontractor who then cashes the check at a sleazy check cashing store paying the Mexicans in cash, a big cash kickback to the general contractor and 5% to the owner of the check cashing store. The general contractor gets to deduct the oversized payment. Everybody else walks away tax free and the American workers is screwed again. It happens everyday! The IRS under Obama couldn’t care less and the state workers compensation investigators are incompetent plus they have no authority to do anything. That’s the lay of the land, folks. 😎

    Like

  17. datagooroo says:

    75 miles east of Las Angeles houses are being built en masse. I also noticed, in the last 6 months, traffic is much heavier. They widened the freeway last year and right now traffic is worse then it was during construction two years ago.

    Like

  18. Carrie2 says:

    Good and more housing is good, but many in CA are vacant very expensive housing, even the dumps are over charging. However, never forget it is the taxes paid by businesses that are really needed to support a city’s income for police, fire, and lesser items. Housing pays back very little taxation and in CA cities are forced to build houses whether need or not, accept aliens and give them public housing (Aargh!) and businesses allow more employment as well. This blew my mind when I found this out.

    Like

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