Being on the leading edge of history as it unfolds is a great deal of fun. Everything is proceeding according to plan. This is The Trump Doctrine playing out on the geopolitical stage and we all have references to smile about. Swimmingly.
Remember, when President Trump gave truthful, and rightful, ownership of the Muslim Brotherhood’s extremism to the Arab Gulf States? Their first response was to refute the position. Quickly they accepted reality; and now the GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, is confronting MB’s enabler, Qatar.
Remember, when President Trump gave truthful, and rightful, ownership of North Korea’s nuclear ambitions to China? The first response was Beijing refuting the position. Eventually they accepted reality; that process is ongoing.
On Monday President Trump gave truthful ownership of the Taliban to Pakistan. Well:
KARACHI, Pakistan (Reuters) – Pakistan has rejected U.S. criticism of its efforts to fight terrorism, saying it should not be made a scapegoat for the failure of the U.S. military to win the war in Afghanistan.
U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled his policy for Afghanistan on Monday, stepping up the military campaign against Taliban insurgents and singling out Pakistan for harboring them.
U.S. officials later warned that aid to Pakistan might be cut and Washington might downgrade nuclear-armed Pakistan’s status as a major non-NATO ally, in order to pressure it to do more to help bring about an end to America’s longest-running war.
Pakistan’s powerful military chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, met U.S. Ambassador David Hale on Wednesday and told him Pakistan was actively working for peace in Afghanistan.
“We have done a lot … and shall keep on doing our best, not to appease anyone but in line with our national interest and national policy,” Bajwa was quoted in an army press statement as telling Hale. (read more)
Earlier we shared how to spot if The Trump Doctrine was being deployed.
So what can we anticipate as next steps? Well, if the familiar pattern repeats:
- Look for Pakistan to attempt to avoid ownership. √
- Look for President Trump and Secretary Tillerson to keep pulling Pakistan into each discussion point when referencing Afghanistan. √
- Look for President Trump tweets aimed at creating and affirming the U.S. expectations of Pakistan. Each time this happens the ownership gets stronger.
- Look for our diplomatic team to talk about Pakistan helping to solve the problem. √
- Look for any affirming U.S. signals of warmth and friendship toward India.
These will all be indications of the ongoing strategy.
Chemical weapons stopped in Syria. Financing of the Muslim Brotherhood stopped in Qatar. Nuclear threats stopped from North Korea. And now getting the Taliban up to the table of negotiations within Afghanistan…
There’s no downside to Pakistan being directly linked to Afghanistan/Taliban, simply because Pakistan is directly linked to Afghanistan/Taliban. Additionally, inherent in the Trump Doctrine of economics and trade used to secure national security objectives, there are going to be ‘winners’ and ‘losers’; ‘allies’ and ‘adversaries’.
In the BIG geopolitical picture people get nervous because Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Fair enough. However, Pakistan’s #1 economic ally is China. China has massive investments in Pakistan. China is attached to Pakistan. Both China and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. Dealing with China and Pakistan is congruent.
Meanwhile, India has nuclear weapons. Afghanistan’s #1 economic ally is India. India has massive investments in Afghanistan. India is attached to Afghanistan. India has nuclear weapons. President Trump is positioning India as a favored nation to the United States; and Trump is also accepting China and Pakistan are connected.
India, is massive economic leverage. India is nice; Pakistan – notsomuch.
See how these strategic geopolitical economic relationships are lining up?