Trumponomics – Connecticut Caught in The Space Between The New Economic Priority…

One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.  Within obscure data, raw and unfiltered up-stream activity, it is entirely possible to see over the horizon.

But newly engaged people also think I’m nuts; so therefore it is also fun conversation at parties to stand above the esoteric academic fray, smile and outline actual forecasts –very specific forecasts– that most would never consider possible from a linear perspective.

People pay a boat-load of money for proprietary ownership of very accurate forecasts.  However, CTH would rather do it open source and break the historic grip of the financial control class.

If you’ll permit me a little Funday indulgence; the other reason to share predictable consequences is so patriotic readers can take a pro-active and empowering position in their own decision-making.  That motive was one of the reasons for previously sharing:

[…]  Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

• Regional areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on state finances, and the retail and high-end service industry will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas/middle-class areas, with affordable housing and reasonable infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  However, those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it. (link)

Now check out this headline from AP today discussing Connecticut:

HARTFORD, Conn. (AP) — Connecticut’s coffers are feeling the pinch of the state’s super-rich no longer paying what they used to in personal income taxes.

New figures released last week show tax revenue from the state’s top 100 highest-paying taxpayers declined 45 percent from 2015 to 2016. The drop adds up to a $200 million revenue loss for the state.

“When you look at the top 75, top 50 … this is a group of wealthy people who are dramatically less wealthy than they were before,” said Kevin Sullivan, commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Revenue Services. “These folks, for a number of reasons, are either not realizing as much income or don’t have as much income.”  (read more)

Essentially, both Bernie Sanders a Donald Trump understand the disconnect between the financial class and the average American (wealth gap) and the potential for crisis it can bring to a nation.

However, while they both identified the same problem, they each had entirely differing views on how to fix it.  Sanders wanted federal intervention via wealth distribution. Trump wanted to institute economic policies that would reverse the trend and narrow the income and wealth gap naturally.

Sanders wanted to force a gap closure, Trump wanted to create the market conditions for the gap to close naturally.   What we are seeing is Trump’s economic policy actually working as planned.

Those of us who have watched decades of federal economic interventionism by globalists and multinationals to the benefit of Wall Street know what caused the problem.  We also can understand what is possible when the economic priorities are reversed to the benefit of Main Street.

As we have previously shared –SEE HERE– the multinational corporate, business and financial world do not have models for what takes place within this new dimension in American economics brought about by a paradigm shift in economic policy.   They have no basis in modeling to fall back upon; and they have no comprehensive analytical tools to understand it.

CTH will keep repeating and emphasizing this ‘new dimension’ reality because knowing what is happening is important for all of us and our families.

The new dimension in U.S. economics  is de-emphatic consumer spending on low-turn durable goods, and emphatic consumer spending on high-turn consumable goods.

Just Keep Watching!

The two economic engines are now in reverse level of importance.  Trump economics focuses on Main Street’s economic engine.  The Fed is stuck focusing on the economy through the prism of Wall Street’s economic engine.

We are now in the economic space between both engines. The traditional cause and effect (Fed) is now uncoupled.  The administrators of the economy are perplexed; this is unfamiliar terrain.

• Wage rates will be driven up by inflation in ‘non-measured’ high-turn, domestic  consumable goods: food, fuel, energy.  The Fed does not measure this segment for inflation.

• Inflation, from the perspective of the Fed will appear artificially low because prices on the measured segment will be static: non-domestic durable goods, housing etc.  Durable good prices will remain static, and in the short term fall surreptitiously – seemingly unattached to the larger expanding economy.

Until the two economies gain parity – any fed activity, taken as a consequence to their familiar traditional measurements (interest rates etc.), will have minimal to negligible impact on Main Street.

Home values and local economic factors will be driven by “regional” economies. Period.

The exact same areas of the country which have gone through two decades of economic contraction will now see economic expansion and revitalization.  The Fed policy which influences Wall Street was not, and is not, domestic centric.  The fed policy is corporate driven, globalist in influence.

If you are making economic decisions, large purchase decisions, over the next year to year-and-a-half, take this into consideration.   Large durable goods will become cheaper over the next six months bottoming out sometime around Christmas 2017/Spring 2018.

Another example: Auto Sector. – Any auto lease rate in the next 6 months to a year will go up, considerably.  Don’t lease a car mid 2017 through all of 2018.  Actuarials are trying to gauge the forecast incoming glut of auto inventory due to high lease rates in 2016 (30%+) that will be turned in late ’17 and throughout ’18.

Conversely, late 2017 through 2018 the price of a low mileage used car (former lease) will necessarily plummet.  If you are thinking of purchasing a vehicle, wait about six months and then consider a solid used vehicle.

Regional economies will continue to drive home values.

• Areas which benefited from high yield and high rates of return from Wall Street, ie. investment benefactors, will begin economic contraction. The downstream effect on retail and high-end service industries will also be negatively impacted.

• However, industrial areas with affordable housing and infrastructure, which have suffered in the past 20+ years, will see home values increasing as the local economy expands.

National policy (Trump Policy) which benefits Main Street also benefits local economics which are founded in manufacturing, production, and ancillary services.  In essence, the Middle-Class.

Those who benefited from high-yield international investment income will see less income.  Those who live on savings will see a moderate benefit.  Those living day-to-day and week-to-week on their paychecks will see much more income.  Believe it.

 

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208 Responses to Trumponomics – Connecticut Caught in The Space Between The New Economic Priority…

  1. Betty says:

    I love looking into the faces of those young workers, and all I can think is “It’s about time!”

    Liked by 21 people

  2. M33 says:

    Sundance, you go to parties?

    I always imagine you as this highly intelligent reclusive figure in a remote area somewhere.

    Guess I was wrong there!

    Liked by 16 people

  3. EV22 says:

    It took a genius like Gov. Malloy to let GE leave CT. And they wonder where all the income that they tax went? Clueless.

    Liked by 26 people

    • Malloy really is a clueless slug , was surely looking for a position in the Hillary administration as is an exit / escape from the mess he is leaving . Typical blue state idiot – they have only one solution for falling revenues /deficits – higher taxes .and more of them

      Liked by 7 people

      • We can only hope Malloy has been hired to guide Hilly out of the woods.

        Liked by 4 people

      • JBrickley says:

        The local legislature is a bigger problem than Malloy. However, this last election cycle saw a 50/50 split GOP / DEM for the first time in a long time. CT has had a DEM dominated legislature for the longest time despite several GOP governors over the years. Those GOP governors were far from Conservative and Gov Lowell Weicker instituted the “temporary” state income tax that was never repealed. Gov Rowland went to jail for profiting personally as governor and he’s back in prison for campaign finance reform violations trying to help a candidate but not declaring his consulting as such. A few billionaires leaving the state has cost hundreds of millions of lost revenue. The unfunded pension funds for State workers comes from the general fund. Medium to small business has been fleeing the state and now large employers like GE and others. There is talk of small towns being forced to pay to subsidize larger cities. Property taxes going up and now they talk about an increased sales tax, $15/hr minimum wage, and toll booths coming soon!

        There used to be a lot of large blue collar military contractors with lots of work, United Technologies, etc. Still here but much work is outsourced that used to be entirely in house. Yankee Ingenuity is seriously lacking as of late.

        The only saving grace is Malloy is deeply unpopular and likely won’t be re-elected but who knows, this state is much like France and Germany, they will likely put another socialist DEM governor into power. Yet the convention center was packed twice with Trump’s rally while despicable Hillary drew a few hundred to her events. Maybe if we are lucky the people of CT will rise up, elect enough GOP state legislature seats to have the majority and put a strong GOP governor into power. Only then will things change.

        Like

    • TwoLaine says:

      That is immediately where my mind went when the subject state is CT. Actions, or lack thereof, have consequences.

      Like

    • WSB says:

      All I know is that driving through Southport early this spring, you can have your pick of beautiful million dollar classic homes next to the beach. All of the GE executives have left, and theirs’ are on the market.

      Like

    • Marc says:

      I believe the Left is truly too unintelligent to understand basic economic principles. They do not understand that unemployment hurts our economy and that employed people keep the government running via federal income taxes. Their heads would explode trying to explain to the Marxist, globalist types that outsourcing jobs overseas hurts our own government by reducing revenue.

      Like

      • RG says:

        I have written before that economics is truly not for everyone. It is a tough study and science to understand…that would be “business science.”

        Like

        • Is that the “science” we are all supposed to support, according to the Left? Actually, a good econ professor can make all that seem easy. I’ve had two who did such a fantastic job explaining the laws of supply and demand, that I have been able to understand how a free market operates, and what the concept of comparative advantage means.

          I understand them so well I can explain it to others – the acid test for understanding something IMHO. I believe there are videos that do a fairly good job of explaining, too, though I haven’t seen any. Then there is Bastiat’s “Broken-window fallacy?” Here’s a three-minute video on the topic:

          Like

  4. patrickhenrycensored says:

    Morton’s law
    When globalism reigns, it poors on the salt of the earth.

    Liked by 13 people

  5. MJB says:

    The Great Unwind Grips the 12 Hottest US Rental Markets
    But in cheaper cities, rents soar.

    seems the 12 most expensive rental markets in the US have had a date with reality, and that can be tough. But in some “mid-tier” markets (in terms of how expensive rents are), rents are soaring by the double digits.

    http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/01/the-great-unwind-grips-the-12-hottest-us-rental-markets/

    Liked by 4 people

    • Doug says:

      thanks for that link… I work in the real estate industry and I definitely think the bubble has burst but not like 2007-2008… this bubble is more a slow leak of air and a balancing… it seems like a healthy transition is going on. personally i like seeing a rental rate decrease because that means more money in peoples pockets to spend on other segments of the economy. My main hope is a decrease in land prices… thats been the biggest hurtle for us is getting land at a reasonable price.

      Liked by 3 people

      • SteveInCO says:

        personally i like seeing a rental rate decrease because that means more money in peoples pockets to spend on other segments of the economy.

        On the other hand, it means less money in other people’s pockets.

        I know people who rent a house out because they can’t sell it because they’re upside down. Cutting the rent simply causes them to hemorrhage money faster than before.

        Like

    • Doug says:

      this is an interesting deflationary force too… changing consumer habits of bargain shopping mixed with online shopping will surely have a deflationary affect on commercial real estate especially in areas with surplus commercial space. this is a trend that will continue even with the focus on main street. Also malls that cater to the very high end will probably have some declines in revenue as the very wealthy make less.

      Liked by 4 people

      • thesavvyinvester says:

        Look into major re-purposing of these Malls. Ford just took over a major portion of the “Fairlane Mall” in Dearborn MI and it is housing some 2000 employees and it was a G-d send for the restaurants in the Mall, also I was blessed to visit the facility and it is stunning. Other uses are being considered as well for these Malls such as Senior Housing. Lot of Lemonade to be made here…

        http://www.mlive.com/business/index.ssf/2016/05/ford_and_fairlane_mall.html

        Liked by 9 people

        • Doug says:

          Ironically the mall may actually turn into what its creator meant it to be which is a true live work play set up. def think the senior housing aspect makes sense.

          Liked by 6 people

          • Dixie says:

            Sorry I’m late to this thread, but I just have to say, the small town I came from converted the old brick high school building to senior assisted living. I toured it out of curiosity because I attended grades 1-12 there. Amazingly, it was beautiful inside.

            Like

  6. Publius2016 says:

    Middle America will see a Renaissance! Why pay 800k for 3 bed, 2 bath when you can raise a family for 200k for 4 bed, 3 bath and land?

    Liked by 12 people

  7. fedback says:

    CTH customer service.
    Great job

    Liked by 3 people

  8. FLEEVY says:

    Winning is fun.

    Liked by 3 people

  9. IF anyone is still working in the financial services industry by the end-of-year need to have their head examined. I live in a country area of central Florida and home building is still going but is slowing down. I do believe SD is right. Main Stream is coming back, slowly but surely…

    Liked by 2 people

    • El Torito says:

      I’m in Central FL too. Bought at the last peak – like 12 or 13 years ago. Finding a 3/2 home was almost impossible and we finally found a 3/2 listed at $200K, but then there was overbidding. We bid $210K, so did one other couple. We ended up with the house because we had better credit and a bigger down payment. A year later, the same house in the HOA was selling for $79K when the bubble burst. But it burst due to gov’t interference, not due to supply and demand. The Central FL recovery has been slow and steady, and hasn’t seemed to follow the rest of the country that seemed to fully recovery a few years ago. I have realtors now saying it would be no problem to get $210K for our home because they have 80 people looking and can’t find a home. So there is practically no inventory which means demand is strong here. Rents still rising. Still considering selling, but will probably wait another 5 or 6 years until my wife retires, unless it goes even crazy higher….then we’ll unload it and rent. But Central FL seems to be on it’s own course, not following national trend, which is a good thing….

      Liked by 5 people

      • Totally agree…moved here from PBC and people coming into the county were ALWAYS looking for deals. Esp when the houses were all the same…go in one and the second one is just alike. Before we moved we remodel completely and was worth. House sold quickly due to remod.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Remington..... says:

        Living in the Inland Empire of So.Cal., I can tell you that home construction is run amok. The prices are increasing dramatically, and folks are buying everything in site. I know people aren’t moving to this he’ll hole, but where do the buyers come from? ‘Cant all be doppers and tweeters….

        Liked by 1 person

    • Got a wealthy east coast relative in financial sector. Got zero bonus last year. Was desperate for Hillary to win. 😂 Just sold their vacation home in CT.

      Liked by 1 person

  10. Weeper says:

    Thank you Sundance. I’ve felt for years that the main objective of the Globalist/NWO was to destroy the Middle Class worldwide. I think that they are still “hell bent” on doing that, which is the main reason for all the vitriolic hatred of PDJT.

    MAGA is rooted in taking us back to the time before Globalism and Capitalism teamed up to force our “class” into extinction.

    We are blessed to have him in the White House, and you at the Tree House to help all understand!

    MAGA!!! 🦁

    Liked by 11 people

    • boogywstew says:

      Would you replace capitalism?

      Liked by 2 people

    • WVPatriot says:

      Our President Donald John Trump is the ONLY phenomenon that prevented us from the catastrophic fates that befell Holland and France…praise be to Almighty God!

      Liked by 9 people

    • Orygun says:

      It was more of Globalism and Crony Capitalism. You have to be in the “Club”.

      Liked by 3 people

      • Weeper says:

        Thank you Orygun. I left off the word “Crony” and I think some misunderstood what I was getting at. Much appreciate you “helping out”. 😉

        Liked by 3 people

      • wheatietoo says:

        I love you, Orygun…but sorry, there is no such thing as “Crony Capitalism”.

        That phrase was invented by the Left to demonize capitalism.

        It’s just…Cronyism.
        And cronyism exists in all systems of govt.

        Just look at the cronyism that has been going on in Venezuela for years.
        Venezuela is a socialist country.
        The ruling govt class is fat and happy, they get all the food and luxuries…while the middle class struggles and goes hungry.

        I ask people who use the term “crony capitalism” to tell me how it is different from just plain ole ‘cronyism’…and I never get an answer.

        So please, let’s not help the left to demonize capitalism, by using the term that they invented.

        Liked by 7 people

        • TPW says:

          Oh I think the left had a great deal of help from the right to demonize capitalism…..

          Liked by 1 person

        • SteveInCO says:

          What “Crony Capitalism” should mean (if it means anything at all) is cronyism disguised as capitalism.

          Sometimes when talking to a leftist, I’ll try to speak his language (hazardous I know) and tell him that I agree that crony capitalism is bad. However, I’d remove the cronyism not the capitalism, and he’d remove the capitalism, not the cronyism. That usually makes them wonder WTF I am talking about and I get to try to explain what laissez faire is and how it’s certainly NOT what we have–government meddles; it extorts, it gets bribed.

          Sometimes I can get them to think by pointing out they’re calling for putting yet more power in the hands of a government that clearly abuses it…they complain about corruption and want to hand more over to the institution that is shot through with it (I know it *causes* the corruption, but they’re not ready to accept that just yet).

          Liked by 5 people

          • wheatietoo says:

            However, I’d remove the cronyism not the capitalism, and he’d remove the capitalism, not the cronyism.

            Heh. Don’t you mean that the other way around?

            Like

            • SteveInCO says:

              Uh, I don’t think so. (scratches head)

              Let me expand the phrasing. However you describe our current system (and they use “crony capitalism”) I’d like to reform it by removing the cronyistic aspects while retaining the capitalism. The socialist I am addressing (“you”) wants to ditch the capitalism, keeping the government which would necessarily be cronyistic.

              Liked by 3 people

              • wheatietoo says:

                Oh…I read that as you saying you would agree that “crony capitalism is bad”.
                And then you would remove “cronyism” from that term and say that “capitalism is bad”.

                Sorry, I misunderstood.

                Liked by 1 person

                • SteveInCO says:

                  Ah, the terms, rather than the referents.

                  OK, we’re on the same clay tablet now.

                  Liked by 3 people

                  • Dixie says:

                    I’m so glad you worked out your internet problems and have remained here with us. I enjoy your comments and love your intellect AND your mathematician abilities.

                    I believe being born with a math brain also allows more common sense than is normal. (I love the way you always “count”, in more ways than one.)

                    Like

    • wheatietoo says:

      Weeper,
      It wasn’t that “Globalism and Capitalism teamed up to force our ‘class’ into extinction”.

      No no…quite the opposite, really.

      It was the Socialist hobbles that were put on our system of capitalism, that played right into the Globalist’s hands.

      Minimum Wage – that’s a socialist construct.
      Employment Taxes – another socialist construct.
      Regulations = govt controls, again a socialist concept.

      These hobbles are what drove business into the open arms of countries that were free of these restraints.

      So it’s actually been a case of Globalism + Socialism that has been driving the middle class into extinction.

      The media, our schools and the entertainment industry are all controlled by the Socialist Left…and are controlled by Globalists.
      Three decades of their non-stop propaganda against Capitalism, is why so many people think that Capitalism is to blame.

      Socialism = anti-consumer.
      Just look at Venezuela and you will see this.

      Capitalism = pro-consumer.
      It is only under capitalism that the middle class prospers.
      Just look at how the middle class in China has prospered under their limited embrace of Capitalism.

      Sorry for the rant.
      I just hate it when I see people blaming capitalism for what is actually the result of socialism.

      Liked by 6 people

      • Weeper says:

        Thanks Wheatietoo. See Orygun’s reply and my response. I SHOULD have included the word Crony in my post. BIG CLUB was what I was referring to. Wrong choice of words on my part ☹️ Ups and downs of learning to blog I guess. 😉

        Liked by 1 person

        • wheatietoo says:

          But we cannot blame Capitalism for ‘cronyism’.

          Cronyism exists is every system of govt.
          I am sure that it even existed back in caveman days.

          Liked by 3 people

  11. Gil says:

    Increasing home prices. Of course here in CA I see it daily. People are moving from coastal areas inland due to costs, but inland rentals are expensive and so are purchases. Not as out of control like the bay area, but going there.
    Nothing affordable-
    https://www.google.com/amp/sf.curbed.com/platform/amp/2017/3/7/14843964/house-san-francisco-prices-down-affordable
    Areas of return growth-
    http://www.businessinsider.com/most-profitable-housing-markets-2017-2017-4/#19-tie-port-st-lucie-florida-1

    Liked by 2 people

    • Ad rem says:

      Heard that the average house in Orange County, CA now runs $800,000….stunning when you realize this averages in areas like Santa Ana and Anaheim.

      Liked by 2 people

      • Gil says:

        Yep, so theyve been moving to victorville, riverside, san berdoo, and the houses and rents are in these areas are ridiculous, considering most people still commute to the OC and LA. Wanna talk about how much the toll roads cost? I saw one over $20 recently!

        Liked by 2 people

        • Ad rem says:

          Right….we passed through Victorville on our way to Vegas two weeks ago, and the amount of new construction was mind blowing. Thirty years ago Victorville used to be that little city out in the desert where guys with PTSD went to escape the noise of the big city. LOL…even Hisperia is now on the map!

          Liked by 1 person

          • Weeper says:

            Vegas!!! 👍 Just missed ya. Was there at the end of March!!! 😉

            Liked by 1 person

          • Gil says:

            Crime rates are through the roof. Nowhere much off the map anymore. I used to enjoy going either to palm springs or through to vegas. I actually get ill seeing the build out…

            Liked by 1 person

            • Ad rem says:

              At least they do us all a favor by announcing their presence in giant multi-colored graffiti on all freeway walls and exits!!! My bad, our media refers to them as “street artists” doncha know.
              I’d contribute to hiring one of these “artists” to paint Eric Garcetti’s new limo…..just sayin’.

              Liked by 1 person

          • SteveInCO says:

            Right….we passed through Victorville on our way to Vegas two weeks ago,

            Hope you stayed at Trump International. (It’s by far the least expensive of his properties as far as the lowest rate goes.)

            Liked by 1 person

            • Ad rem says:

              Nope….stayed at Mandalay bay. The SIL gets comped when staying at a MGM property. I still prefer the Bellagio.

              Like

              • SteveInCO says:

                Ah, that makes sense then.

                I stayed at Trump one night, even though I didn’t even have to stay in Vegas, “Just Because.” This was late November of last year and I decided to hit Battlefield Vegas as well. Everyone who works there is a veteran and they were so stoked at the rumors Mattis would be SecDef. Two days later was the “Thank You” Rally where Trump decided to spill the secret.

                (Battlefield Vegas is a place you can rent guns, even machine guns, and shoot them. I shot all kinds of machine guns but of course I have quite a few non-machine-guns of my own. The night I was there shooting things like a G3, a full auto 805 BREN pistol, and a mini gun, a couple of women showed up from San Francisco and rented 1) a Glock and 2) a 1911. That was it.

                Sad that even those are such novelties in some places.

                Liked by 2 people

                • Ad rem says:

                  OMG…we would’ve loved Battlefield Vegas!!! Wish the SIL would have told us….he did two tours in Iraq, so this should have been right up his alley. Mebbe he thought the old folks would faint? Next time, I’m insisting on doing this though….that early bird special + the happy hour doesn’t sound bad. 😀

                  Liked by 1 person

                  • Gil says:

                    My husband and i went in there once. For a lot of tourists who have never fired a gun or arent allowed to its a fun thing. Mine is very knowledgeable but didnt want to shoot their guns, at that time. I say try it but go when they arent so crowded.

                    Liked by 1 person

          • navysquid says:

            Nothing wrong with us and PTS…

            We like our peace and quiet after so many years of explosions and screaming…

            Thanks Ad Rem!

            Liked by 5 people

        • Remington..... says:

          Out in Menifee, you can’t go anywhere without seeing hills being shredded for new homes. We are in the middle of nowhere, and a home will cost you at least $450k – no land. The other day my friend said he saw new “townhouse” going up. I told him they were actually single family. Looks like something out of East Germany.

          Liked by 1 person

          • Gil says:

            Its sick remington. Theyre putting in homes all along the 60, 15, 215 wherever you see open space they have to cover it. Like reverse locusts.

            Liked by 1 person

  12. thesavvyinvester says:

    It is not a question of if but when more Conservative Middle Class Boomers ( those left ) finally leave CT especially those who are fans of the 2nd Amendment, they can’t wait to reach retirement and go South. Malloy has mucked it up that bad. The State which just over 20 years ago was a tax free Republican manufacturing giant State, is now a ghost of it’s former self not to mention it’s problem cities / sanctuaries. Ironically what Sundance talks about in terms of a Mid-West style Renaissance would work here if the Gov and the General Assembly in Hartford would get the heck out of the way.

    Liked by 4 people

    • WSB says:

      CT started going into the red when Grasso was governor, if I can remember back. It was a great state to grow up in prior to idiot governance taking over. But you get what you vote for.

      Now, Fairfield County has a lot of housing for sale.

      Like

      • navysquid says:

        CT reminds me from what you all are saying like AZ is to CA. Everyone was fleeing NYC to CT away from the liberal politics only to increase the same taxes and rates now in CT. That is what has happened here in AZ with all the lefties fleeing their own tax policies to AZ, NV, CO, and UT making these states once red rocked states now purplish and sometimes blue.

        Liked by 2 people

  13. Scott says:

    How many of these wealthy are also leaving due to high taxes?

    Liked by 1 person

  14. The Boss says:

    Back of the envelope calculations…CT’s 100 biggest super-rich taxpayers together had around $3 billion less taxable income in 2016 than 2015. I guess they lost a boatload betting on a Hillary win and a Stay victory in the UK.

    Liked by 1 person

  15. missmarple2 says:

    Another thing that has to do with this is the generational change and demographics.

    I had an eBay store until last year, when I moved in with my daughter. One of the big trends in the antiques trade is the collapse in the secondary market for recent collectibles. This means Dept 56 villages, Hummels. Precious Moments, Longaberger baskets etc. are selling at a fraction of the price they would have sold for 10 years ago. The reason for this is that the younger people aren’t fond of these items (associating them with older people), they don’t collect as much ( small homes with little room for collections plus more modern style), and there are fewer people compared to the Boomers.

    This is just a fact of today’s market. It also applies to housing. Who is going to live in all those McMansions? The younger generation wants urban living, smaller homes with smaller mortgages due to student loans, and there are less buyers overall.

    Liked by 8 people

    • singingsoul says:

      Young people do not want to dust the knick nocks as he generation before. I have a lo of stuff from my husbands mother. I enjoyed them and now cannot wait to give them away am tired of cleaning them 🙂

      Liked by 3 people

      • missmarple2 says:

        Correct! If you look at the design magazines like House Beautiful, you will see very few accessories on the shelves or tables. The only thing they might collect is wall art, and then, it is not what we like.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Patriot1783 says:

          Most youngsters have no sense of history or an inkling of their genealogical lineage. Their life is all about the newest fad and latest apple product.
          I descend from ancestors that arrived in the early 1600’s in both Hamestown and Plimoth, had a couple accused as witches, several were killed by Indians, over 40 are known to have taken part in the American Revolution from seven states and both my maternal and paternal sides ended up on opposite sides of the civil war.
          I wouldn’t trade that knowledge for the newest electronic gizmo ever.

          Liked by 6 people

    • SteveInCO says:

      I spent a couple of years in CA right out of college, then transfered back home (same employer). A lot of other people did the same thing, only it wasn’t “home” to them, it was just a place that was cheaper than CA.

      In many cases they ended up buying a HUGE house here, instead of cutting their mortgage payments. Generally the breadwinner wanted to keep the house size the same, but the spouse saw something big and fell in love with it. (I couldn’t even begin to afford a CA house, so moving here let me buy something.)

      We are seeing the phenomenon of big houses on small lots. A lot of people just don’t want to spend their weekends maintaining a yard (and I don’t blame them!) but they want the space of the house (or they don’t want to take a tax hit from downsizing).

      A lot of the quirks of American real estate are due to taxation, not actual economic sense.

      Liked by 2 people

    • Dixie says:

      Wonder if that’s why HGTV is beating us over the head with TINY HOUSES. Lordy, that channel has fallen bigly. Seems to have developed an overtone of immaturity.

      LOL! Since we are trying to stay away from any channels with news, we are reduced to watching HGTV, Discovery and the Animal Channel. Woe is me. So I read and learn at CTH.

      Like

  16. lol here is my contribution to Trumponomics. Someone else’s prediction but I love it!

    https://i1.wp.com/cinderellaspeaks.files.wordpress.com/2017/05/img_1226.png?ssl=1&w=450

    Liked by 1 person

  17. fleporeblog says:

    SD this little nugget from the article hits your point to a tee:

    Malloy’s warnings follow a 2016 report to Connecticut’s Commission for Economic Competitiveness that determined the industries adding the most jobs in the state are paying an average wage of $54,018 a year. Meanwhile, industries with shrinking employment in Connecticut pay an average wage of $75,246. The same report also found Connecticut is losing young and educated people to other states.

    I love the fact that the reversed economic engines will hit predominantly Blue States like, CT, NY, NJ, Mass etc. I live in NYC. These places have benefited by the pro Wall St model for the last 30 years or so. I love the fact these states will never understand what is happening to them. Hellen will raise the interest rate another quarter in June and it will have ZERO effect on the economy. These morons aren’t able to stop the Train as it will run them over!

    Liked by 8 people

    • tomhend2010 says:

      Fleporeblog, I live in NYC also, upper east side, you are right, NYC is about to get hit by the wrecking ball and they can not see it coming. $99M apartments and homeless people sleeping out front? I still do not understand why real estate is off the charts here, money laundering, foreign money whatever, it just seems ripe for a colossal correction downward.

      Liked by 1 person

      • fleporeblog says:

        Tomhend2010, NYC is completely protected because of Wall St location. With the market at 21,000, it means the city will have an abundance of funds. It is everyone outside of NYC that are screwed.

        Liked by 1 person

    • tomhend2010 says:

      Fleporeblog, I live in NYC also, upper east side, you are right, NYC is about to get hit by the wrecking ball and they can not see it coming. $99M apartments and homeless people sleeping out front? I still do not understand why real estate is off the charts here, money laundering, foreign money whatever, it just seems ripe for a colossal correction downward.

      Like

      • Dekester says:

        Interesting reading these comments. Real estate in specific cities is just a financial asset class.

        There is two homes in our block, valued in excess of two million (Can). These homes have been vacant for over two years. Vacant homes in some neighbourhoods comprise of nearly thirty percent of all homes. Overseas buyers are cash purchasers, no mortgage required.
        A neighbour, originally from Australia was telling me this morning, that even Auckland NZ, has been dramatically affected by overseas buyers.
        Our area was working class fifteen years ago. Globalism is working for a minuscule number at the top of the international food chain. Interesting too that cities with the highest real estate values, are overwhelmingly left, or very left leaning.

        Let us all hope that PDJT and his team can change the trajectory. The generation coming behind has to have hope.

        Thank you.

        Liked by 2 people

        • navysquid says:

          Thomas Sowell once wrote and article about rent-controlled areas and that they were doing the exact opposite of what was intended and causing rent to skyrocket in those areas…and, yes, they were always in lefty liberal states or cities. The link above that someone posted about rents shows you that the ten highest rents in the country are all liberal cities…and yet we continue to send our kids to colleges where this type of thinking and math and economics are taught!!

          Thank goodness for PDJT and the old school of economics that many of us here at the CTH were raised on…

          Like

          • Navysquid – you hit a tender spot there! Our son was thinking about dropping out of college after just a few weeks on campus. He had heard both of us, both with college degrees, DH w/Masters, railing against colleges, so he was AMAZED that we enthusiastically encouraged him to drop out!

            After a few very tough years, including a job at McD’s, today he is richer than G-d making a salary + stock bonuses with a huge high-tech company in WA state! He’s a computer genius and that pays big time. Not long ago he was asked to join a curriculum team for a university to teach college students how he did what he was doing.

            Haven’t heard a progress report, but this caused me to think, again, that businesses are doing what ISN’T taught in colleges! They are ahead of academe. They do what hasn’t been done before! This is why the US is ahead of the world – and always have been. Back in the day (1700s) people went to post-secondary institutions to become lawyers, politicians and ministers. Later (1800s), that group expanded to include doctors.

            Trumponomics!!!

            Liked by 1 person

      • WSB says:

        Meanwhile, we are up the Hudson ina little blue collar town that is now experiencing $1.5M condo sales because people are leaving NYC.

        Like

  18. glypenblog says:

    I wish this would bloom in every liberal state, firing government workers sounds like a win to me.

    Liked by 1 person

  19. golfmann says:

    Well, I DO wish they’d tie in more reality for the Social Security cost of living.
    It’s only right to do that.

    Liked by 2 people

    • SteveInCO says:

      Raising SS Colas means borrowing more money, raising taxes to feed the general fund (which owes SS and Medicare about five trillion dollars) or increasing payroll taxes on workers today. Every single one of those options would hurt people younger than yourself (I’m assuming you brought this up because you’re on social security).

      Liked by 1 person

  20. American Me says:

    I for one do not think you are nuts Sundance, nor will I ever. You are far from it. Your intellect and wisdom are above and beyond any and all levels I wish I could posses. You break everything down so awesomely and straight forward that even a novice like me can comprehend. The education and insight I’ve received in my short time “lurking” on this site is second to none. It far surpasses any education I received from any school I’ve ever attended in my life. The “homework” and time you put into teaching us is not lost on this Treeper. Nope…I respect and admire you and all of those here who help to contribute. GOD Bless you Sundance and GOD Bless The Treehouse!

    Liked by 11 people

  21. Laronda says:

    People and yes…rich people are getting out of the NY NJ CT tristate area in droves.

    Liked by 1 person

  22. Martin says:

    Liked by 8 people

  23. Donna in Oregon says:

    I am curious what the effect of the Trump Tax plan will have. Getting rid of loopholes will change spending habits of the rich. Derivatives based on debt and credit derivatives (the casino games in the financial sector) could be effected. I hope so.

    Liked by 2 people

  24. Doug says:

    one has to wonder how HR Block is feeling right about now. simple tax code is going to mean they are out of business overnight

    Liked by 3 people

  25. Southpaw says:

    It will only get worse in Conn land as ESPN slowly fades away

    Like

  26. El Torito says:

    Sundance the value your guidance and insight cannot be overstated. Give us all the crazy sh/t you got.

    Liked by 5 people

  27. Jim in TN says:

    Sundance,
    There is something odd about economics that I wish to ask you. When the industrial age superseded the agricultural age, agriculture didn’t stop or move to poor nations, it became so much more efficient allowing the manpower to shift to industry. For a long time now they have been telling us the industrial age is over, with a never ending roster of what is replacing industry. But I do not see a real shift enabled by true productivity gains of the new jobs.
    Industrial shipping improvements enable shipping our jobs away. Computers reduced middle management. We have been using technological development to try and stay afloat, but China has moved into the space age, and we are dumbing ourselves down via bad schools and low skilled immigration.
    What is left seems to be service jobs. Service jobs are consumption, not production. No economic improvement comes from service jobs. And sure enough, that is one of the things they say is replacing the industrial age.
    Your Main Street vs Wall Street analysis fits the facts much better than any claim that the industrial age is over.
    What is your take on this topic? Is all that talk a smoke screen, or propaganda to get us to accept unwelcome changes? Is there really a replacement for the industrial age?

    Liked by 2 people

    • sickconservative says:

      Just to ask but what caused the shift?
      Bringing back the industrial manufacturing back to our country is bad in your eye’s, why?
      Yes things have changed and some will never come back with technology but giving up on our wasted labor to really to produce something isn’t the answer.

      Like

      • Jim in TN says:

        Explaining myself correctly is difficult when I don’t understand. I apologize if I am implying that bringing jobs back is bad. I think it is good. I also think it is necessary.

        Liked by 1 person

    • sundance says:

      Is there a replacement for the industrial age?

      Depends. Technology is surpassing the hardware so you could say it’s a technological age. However, I equate technology to tools and machinery which are still dependent on people.

      As long as people are involved in the production process it will always be an industrial age. When/if AI ever takes over, it might then be considered a technological age.

      (ps. read all the links – it goes into depth)

      Liked by 3 people

      • kathyca says:

        I was just having this discussion last week. AI is now grading HS level essays. The few humans who participate are used solely to train the computer. If AI can be used to grade writing style, I figure it can be used for nearly anything. And that’s happening right now — so it won’t be long.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Jim in TN says:

        Thanks.

        One of the things that I feel was essential in developing our economy was the growth of a consumer class of workers, as evidenced by Ford paying workers enough money that they could afford the cars they produced. It is sort of a self expanding bubble. More consumers needs more producers. More production drops prices, allowing more to be consumed. Etc.

        As Europe, Japan, South Korea, etc., each started joining in our economy, they grew their consumer class of workers. Each caused us some pain. But we kept on growing. I think China is trying to do the same. It has such a long way to go.

        This more recent form of globalism is undercutting that consuming middle class everywhere by taking production to the most slave like conditions that they can get away with. It is like a replay of Rome, all the slaves displacing the people, turning us into dependents of the state. Relying on bread and circuses given to us by the government.

        This can only lead to collapse. The west, and especially America will no longer be the consumers of the world’s production. Without new consumers to replace us, world production will collapse too.

        It is like trying to get rich by declaring bankruptcy.

        Liked by 1 person

  28. GSR says:

    THe wall needs to begin construction. No more excuses. No more Beltway blather. Begin construction Mr President, otherwise you won’t be reelected.

    Like

    • Bert Darrell says:

      GSR: your comment would be best directed at congress. Trump has been asking for moneys to get the wall going -before Mexico repays one way of another- and the critters are playing stupid (not that it is too difficult for them).

      Liked by 4 people

    • missmarple2 says:

      Are you unaware that bids are being let and prototypes selected? The wall is proceeding, with or without congress.

      Liked by 6 people

      • WSB says:

        Missmarple2, I work in the service industry of hotel design, and most people just think we wave a magic wand for the final result to be built. The reality is a lot of design phases, permitting, mock ups, budgeting, bidding, ordering, staging and building.

        No one seems to realize that these projects take one year or more from start to finish. I just completed an 800 page spec book for spa FFE. It still does get done the old fashioned way.

        I am encouraged though to be finding a few more sources made in the USA…maybe there really is hope.

        Liked by 2 people

  29. Bartsmydog says:

    I work at the Mack engine plant in Maryland, we’re just waiting for all the Macks they’re gonna need to pour that concrete for the wall!

    Liked by 7 people

    • Wayne Robinson says:

      America is on the cusp of a great renewal. Our infrastructure is falling down . Do you read me ? Bridges are falling down , people have been killed by the tragedy of not maintaining our highways and bridges. All across America buildings of every description / where houses , factories , cement plants , power houses nuclear , coke fired and hydro are in need of being upgraded and rebuilt . Damns and water courses , Leveys and sea walls . Airports , manufacturing plants and hangars everything in America is a mess . From reservoirs to flood controls schools hospital and jails and prisons . We will take time to build a head of steam but once this nation gets moving there will be great benefit for all citizens . These things have to be done sooner or later year by year everything approaches its limit of safe use . America manufacturing will come back with added benefit of new technologies and space age materials. If you want to track what is happening watch tool orders and deliveries these items are expendable . You will see a great increase in orders and deliveries , all new machines are made by using other machines that use cutters and bits this is machine tools . Just watch it will start slow and increase like crazy ad orders are filled more orders will be made and everyone’s old equipment will be replaced . The seen in field of dreams where fat guy say America has been erased and rebuilt is right on . We are just at the very beginning it hasn’t even started yet but it will.

      Liked by 4 people

      • navysquid says:

        Wayne…great post. I did read it all but some may be turned off without breaking it up into paragraphs. Just a suggestion, because it was a great post and some may have bypassed it because it is lengthy…

        Liked by 3 people

  30. moe2004 says:

    Have a very good friend who grew up in Conn and recently left. He owns a digital business and one of the best Red Sox message boards, said he was tired of living in a place that took all his money and showed him no love. Pretty moderate guy over all and left for North Carolina with his wife and four kids. He seems pretty happy now.

    Liked by 4 people

  31. Minnie says:

    “Seek first to understand and then to be understood”.

    That is now possible under Sundance’s tutelage 👍

    Thank you, my friend 😊

    Liked by 4 people

  32. TexasDude says:

    What’s ironic is that focusing on Main St should result in more imployment with more income, including disposable. This, in turn, will mean more tax $$ going into government coffers and more spending on things like newer cars, houses, vacations, restaurants, etc.

    Liked by 3 people

  33. EV22 says:

    Just a bit of history. Way back when, CT didn’t have any income tax. And then Gov. Weicker was faced with a deficit – a big no, no back in the day. He promised that the CT income tax would only be implemented long enough to pay off the deficit and then – presto! – it was going to disappear.

    And people believed him! Really!

    Liked by 3 people

  34. SonAm Rev says:

    Sundance is extremely astute, particularly re: the economy. His opening statement about economic prediction based on political policy reveals all. Our country’s founding is based on a central government not participating in the economy (And that was the reason for the Am Revolution). 120 years of progressive attack successfully destroyed that. I received a newsletter about 13+ years ago that said our country lost the republic in 1937,or thereabouts, because of a Supreme Court decision that effectively let the federal government interfere with the economy. Some kind of commerce clause allowance, IIRC. The b***ards have been after us for a long, long time.

    Liked by 2 people

    • Lanna says:

      1942 — Wicard v. Filburn. Had to do with instate wheat production, but SCOTUS declared Congress could regulate economic activity that only indirectly related to interstate commerce via the Commerce Clause. (Congress had imposed limits on production to stabilize price and supply.

      This decision allowed the federal government to greatly expand its regulatory power.

      Liked by 2 people

  35. Howie says:

    The leftists are caught in a garbage compactor. Every day he squeezes them a little more.

    Liked by 1 person

  36. unconqueredone says:

    “When you look at the top 75, top 50 … this is a group of wealthy people who are dramatically less wealthy than they were before,” said Kevin Sullivan, commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Revenue Services.

    He makes the typical assumption that paying less taxes equals less wealthy. Warren Buffett is noted for claiming he pays less income taxes than his accountant, so therefore he’s “less wealthy”? The very wealthy know how to use the complex system they helped create to limit their tax burden.

    Like

  37. mj_inOC says:

    Great article, CTH!
    Simply put, it’s a numbers thing… there is more of us on Main Street than those on Wall Street. And, providentially, we voted last yea!

    Ironically, “One of the reasons CTH writes about economic matters [is] because constructing economic prediction theories based around political policy is a hobby of mine.”

    One of the reasons mj-fromOC [but now Monterey] reads … is English grammar is a hobby of mine.” And Dear CTH, someone forgot the verb in your opening sentence 🙂

    Liked by 1 person

  38. So the ‘drive by’ media (AP) put out a short blurb and a headline making it sound like all the rich people in CT are going bust. I bet the young commie reporters love it.

    However, what is missing is the time frame. Is this a year to year decline, over 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? With corporations pulling out of these high tax States and either relocating, closing, or going offshore over the last 20 or so years I can imagine this was a slow drip. Of course the far southwest corner of CT will remain the exclusive NYC ‘place to be’ for the wannabe’s.

    Liked by 1 person

  39. 6x47 says:

    Don’t overlook how Wall Street financiers have benefited from the artificial low rates the Fed has maintained as a form of Keynesian stimulus to prevent the investor class from going under.

    “Trickle down” was used scornfully to deride Reagan’s “Supply Side” policies but in truth that epithet best describes Keynesian stimulus.

    Their bailout is ending.

    Like

  40. Red Rooster says:

    Re: auto lease rates going up for next six months, based on this data, I don’t think so. There’s more than Mainstream vs Wall St to the economy, especially when it comes to disruptive business models. Hertz dumping 1.8 million cars this year alone in effort to “right size” it’s fleet in response to massive market share loss to Uber. Same has to be occurring w/ other rental car cos. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-07/how-uber-hurts-hertz

    Like

  41. Red Rooster says:

    Re: auto lease rates going up for next six months, based on this data, I don’t think so. There’s more than Mainstream vs Wall St to the economy, especially when it comes to disruptive business models. Hertz dumping 1.8 million cars this year alone in effort to “right size” it’s fleet in response to massive market share loss to Uber. Same has to be occurring w/ other rental car cos. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-07/how-uber-hurts-hertz

    Like

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