A very interesting and exceptionally in depth poll from Sextant Strategies (two pdf’s below) of California voters shows candidate Donald Trump is in a commanding position within the state.
Interestingly, the poll highlights two overall categories voter: 1. Registered Republicans who have voted frequently in all recent elections; and 2. New voters who are registering in astonishing numbers in order to vote in this year’s primary.
Donald Trump is leading with traditional republican voters (41%), and is crushing the field with those holding new registration (53%).  The internals and crosstabs of the poll are a very interesting read.  Here’s the topline result:

Candidate Donald Trump is winning with all demographics (men, women, age, race, income level, education etc.) within the cross tabs of the poll.
However, Trump’s lead expands significantly when you review the “new voters” who are registering by the thousands.
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Indiana has some of the most ardent laws forbidding unsolicited voter contact which eliminates most polling organizations from conducting organized polling.  As a direct result there have been almost no polls conducted in the state, leaving a great deal of speculation about the state of the race.

Additionally, there’s a transparency of motive within the political media to jump over the April 26th primary states and focus attention on Indiana (May 3rd) to frame a narrative of larger political interest.
Indiana has clearly become the best hope for candidate Ted Cruz sell his position that he can stop Donald Trump from achieving the 1,237 delegates needed for an outright nomination victory.   Ergo Politico delivers an article showing some “private polling” information that helps maintain interest in the storyline: (more…)

Project Veritas, via James O’Keefe, drove through Brooklyn New York investigating voter irregularities during the Tuesday primary.

In this video, undercover videographers expose voter fraud and corruption on New York’s primary day. In the video, an election official most likely commits a felony by advising a journalist on how to vote outside of her district. The video also shows how chaotic polling locations across New York were on election day.

Pat Buchanan was interviewed by Sean Hannity last night and raises some good fundamental points regarding the ridiculous positions espoused by professional punditry and political elites.  Lots of plain common sense:

Buchanan points out:
1. Trump is holding rallies of 20,000 – 30,000+ IN A PRIMARY. This is a historic point that most seemingly overlook.  No-one ever before has gathered such crowd sizes in “primary races“.  Supportive crowds the size of Trump (and yes, Sanders) have only before been witnessed in “general elections”, and only one candidate on the republican side is capable of generating this much enthusiasm.
2. The talking point of a “contested convention” when the clear frontrunner is millions of votes ahead of the field is ridiculous. Prior 19th century “contested”, “open”  or “brokered” conventions never involved the sheer scope of the 2016 primary vote lead (currently 2.4 million ahead with well over 8 million votes).
3. This is not forty years ago. With instantaneous communication, instantaneous individual video recordings, and instantaneous video transmission of convention events to the phones, computers and TV screens of the larger U.S. electorate, the visible damage to the party apparatus attempting to defy the will of the voter will be irreparable if the RNC attempts or allows it.
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There’s an old saying referenced at times when a person refuses to move based on principle:

“At what cost are you willing to win”?

The essential meaning behind the question is: how far are you willing to go -in the elimination of a coalition- in order to prove your own standing is most righteous? …and does the internal sense of victory overcome the desperate isolation at the end of your arguments?
Do the ‘ends‘ justify the ‘means‘?
Eventually the questions require pause, and eventually lead the recipient to ask themselves to reconsider their motives.  Are pride and/or ego the motivators driving the decision?  Most people are capable of such introspection; however, some people are not.
With Senator Ted Cruz now mathematically eliminated from winning victory by votes the essence of the original question now applies to the candidate himself, and also to the supporters who have worked earnestly to affirm the candidates ideological platform.
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I doubt you could find a more apropos example of the current state of the 2016 republican presidential race than to look at the contrast today between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.
Candidate Trump heads to Indiana and Maryland for campaign rallies with voters; while candidate Cruz rushes to Hollywood Florida to meet with RNC officers, party insiders and GOPe officials.   Trump rallies people – Cruz relies on party bosses.

The party officials who met with Team Cruz today are the same party leaders who have presided over the past decade’s exodus from the Republican Party.  The GOPe has dropped 17% of it’s base, now around 30% registration “Republican”, and prior to candidate Donald Trump held less than a third of all registered U.S. voters.
Donald Trump has brought in massive numbers of new voters to the Republican party:  ♦ Over 100,000 people switched or registered ‘republican’ in Pennsylvania; ♦ more than 20,000 Massachusetts democrats changed party to republican prior to the primary; ♦ in California tens of thousands of voters are switching, or registering for the first time, all to support Donald Trump.  (more…)

A curious situation presented itself two weeks ago within the FEC reports and required filings of 2016 election Super-PACS. A direct phone inquiry confirmed a noted decrease in the number of required “24-hour expenditure reports” from some Super-PAC’s currently active and engaged in the 2016 presidential election.
Perhaps the decrease in filing activity was  just coincidental to several recent revelations which were discovered and discussed relating to the payments to media groups and various media-created LLC’s who are beneficiaries of Super-PAC funding.
They could just be spending less, and being less involved in the last 10 days. A key deadline for monthly summary filings is only five days away.
However, it could also be that THIS SUNLIGHT is expanding exponentially.
Super-PACS are required to file a detailed monthly list of donors (contributions) and expenditures (payments) for the preceding month on/before the 20th day of the current reporting period. Meaning contributions and expenditures for “March 2016” are due by April 20th – TODAY.

Cruz super PAC Keep the Promise III collected $770k in March, almost entirely from another Cruz super PAC, Trusted Leadership.

— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) April 20, 2016

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Gravis Marketing conducted one of the few polls of Delaware taken in this election cycle.  The poll released today shows Donald Trump with a commanding lead of 55%, which is 37 points ahead of the second place candidate John Kasich 18%.  Senator Ted Cruz is in last place with only 15% support.

Donald Trump is beating Kasich/Cruz combined !

Gravis Marketing, a nonpartisan research firm, conducted a random survey of 1,038 likely Republican Primary voters and 1,026 likely Democratic Primary voters.  The poll has a margin of error of ± 3.0% for Republicans  (link)

Donald Trump has won the New York Republican primary with 60.5%, and becomes the first Republican Candidate to win his Home State with a majority vote of the state electorate.

[ Ted Cruz won Texas with 44% and John Kasich won Ohio with 47% ]

New York

First, the math – Going into last night Donald Trump carried 758 delegates and Ted Cruz 554.  Last night, Donald Trump won 90 delegates, Cruz won -0- (link).

• Today Donald Trump carries 848 Delegates, and Ted Cruz still has 554.  There are 674 delegates remaining.
• It is now mathematically impossible for voters to nominate Ted Cruz.  Cruz would need 683 delegates and there are only 674 remaining available.
• Donald Trump needs 389 of the remaining 674 delegates to reach 1,237 and clinch the nomination.

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Update 10:35pm: – Victory Party Live Stream in Prior thread – Now the delegate count begins….

Donald Trump Towers To Victory

Prior To Tonight Delegate Count – Trump: 758, Cruz: 543

New York is a modified ‘Winner Take Most’ delegate distribution – By State and By Congressional District – 95 Delegates total:

♦ 81 district delegates are to be allocated to presidential contenders based on the primary results in each of the 27 congressional districts: each congressional district is assigned 3 National Convention delegates and the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in that district -if over 50%- will receive all 3 of that district’s National Convention delegates. If winner falls below 50%: winner gets two, runner up gets one (minimum threshold 20%)

♦ 14 at-large delegates (10 base at-large delegates plus 1 bonus delegates plus 3 RNC delegates) are to be bound to the presidential contender receiving the greatest number of votes in the primary statewide.

Total = 95 Delegates Available – How Many Will Trump Win?.

• CNN Election HQ – Results Available HERE
• Politico Election HQ – Results available HERE
• New York Times Election HQ – Results Available HERE
• The Green Papers – Election Results and Delegate Tracking HERE