A new poll from Oklahoma shows what a disconnect there can be when using samples of “likely voters” (full poll data pdf below).  Donald Trump leads with 27%, Ted Cruz second with 18.3%, Carson in third with 17.5%, Rubio fourth with 16%.

A tightening field with Cruz gaining from Carson’s slips.  While Trump leads with all demographics, genders and age ranges (dominating the youth vote), the internals show Carson and Cruz base is within “very religious” segment of the Oklahoma electorate but only minimally stronger than Donald Trump – which is interesting.  Overall Oklahoma looks like a four person race.

OKLAHOMA CITY –  Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remain the top choices for president among Oklahoma voters, according to an exclusive News 9/News On 6 poll.

If Oklahoma’s March 1 primary elections were held today, 27.1 percent of state Republicans say they would vote for Trump. Clinton controls nearly half of the Democrat primary vote, 46.6 percent, according to the poll. (more…)

A large sample national poll conducted by IPSOS for Reuters (full pdf below) reflects an increasingly obvious reality – Donald Trump is the dominant candidate with a vast and growing support base.

Significantly, the data also shows: five times as many independent voters choose Donald Trump over Marco Rubio and/or Ted Cruz.

Political followers have noticed GOPe strategy modified and they stopped attacking Trump directly.  Instead they shifted their marginalization approach by trying to attach Trump to candidate Ted Cruz.

Every effort by Team Trump should be made to keep Ted Cruz at arms length.  We have previously outlined the reason(s) why Cruz’s electoral strategy is doomed to defeat.  There is no winning electoral map within the campaign strategy of Ted Cruz which is based on a very narrow slice of the electorate.  (more…)

Op-Hummingbird was only modestly successful in attaining the GOPe objective. However, a set of similar media/political metrics we follow outlines a modified approach. More on that later…

Today two independently gathered polls reveal an almost identical result.  WBUR and Fox News each conducted a poll in New Hampshire (both pdf’s below).  Both polls show Donald Trump extending his lead in the state, and both polls show support for Ben Carson collapsing, or at least retracting significantly.

(Via Fox) Donald Trump leads the race for the Republican nomination in New Hampshire, while Bernie Sanders edges Hillary Clinton among Democrats.

That’s according to the latest Fox News poll, released Wednesday, and conducted since Friday’s terrorist attacks in Paris. (more…)

Arguably the battleground state of Florida is where the primary will be won or lost in March of  2016.   The 100 winner-take-all delegates are the key prize toward primary victory on the GOP side of the presidential race.

The latest poll (full pdf below) from Florida shows Donald Trump growing his lead from September over home state competitors Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.  Several of the internal metrics are interesting, including Trump being the only candidate to extend a lead over Clinton since Joe Biden is removed.  Head-to-Head Trump beats Clinton 49 to 40:

Other interesting notes: ♦ Rand Paul shows remarkable support from African American voters in Florida. ♦ Carly Fiorina has completely collapsed. ♦ Chris Christie’s earlier support is also gone.  ♦ Ben Carson remains third. (more…)

Regardless of who you support in the 2016 Presidential primary race, most will admit there’s one strategic advantage held by Donald Trump over all other candidates – Trump’s willingness to “own the downside“.

All policies and proposals have a “downside“, there’s no such thing as a policy proposal with benefit to all and harm to none.   This empirical truth is toxic to professional politicians – therefore they spend an inordinate amount of time using pretzel logic to avoid it.

As a direct consequence of avoidance, the media love to use the downside as a weapon.  For the first time in recent political memory Donald Trump represents a candidacy who is unafraid of their spear; and as a consequence, immune to the damage. (more…)

In a hilariously transparent rush to catch-up to Donald J Trump’s prior position (asserting no Syrian refugees should be granted access to the U.S.A), candidate Marco Rubio joins with another ‘johnny-come-lately‘ Ted Cruz:

In light of the terrorist attacks in Paris, the Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio on Sunday said the US should not take in more Syrian refugees.

The Florida senator had previously signalled openness to relocating some of the millions fleeing the Syrian civil war to American shores.

(more…)

Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Ted Cruz are competing for the ‘moderate amnesty vote’.

Via CNN – Rubio, speaking in Hilton Head, South Carolina, Thursday, noted Cruz’s support for H-1B visas as the two senators spar over broader immigration policy.

“Ted is a supporter of legalizing people that are in this country illegally,” Rubio said. “In fact, when the Senate bill was proposed he proposed legalizing people that were here illegally — he proposed giving them work permits. He’s also supported a massive expansion of the green cards. He’s supported a massive expansion of the H-1B program – a 500% increase.”

He added: “If you look at it, I don’t think our positions are dramatically different.” (link)

Mark Steyn also notices how Fox Business News and the Wall Street Journal were in no hurry to compare or contrast Marco Rubio with Donald Trump on the issue of immigration enforcement, borders, deportation and Rubio’s gang-of-eight affiliations. 

The debate?

Well, I thought the most interesting moment came when Donald Trump brought up Eisenhower:

Let me just tell you that Dwight Eisenhower—a good president, great president, people liked him. ‘I Like Ike’, right? The expression ‘I Like Ike’? – moved a million and a half illegal immigrants out of this country, moved them just beyond the border: They came back. Moved them again, beyond the border: They came back. Then moved them way south. They never came back.

To the establishments of both parties and the media, Trump is beyond the pale. Yet he keeps, confidently, moving beyonder. And, as he does so, he’s moving the pale. NBC News.

(more…)

The currently considered TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) trade deal has the potential to be the fulcrum under every plank in the 2016 presidential election. Many people view immigration as the #1 concern underlying further economic issues – however, few people recognize that immigration is actually part of the TPP construct.

You can learn more about TPP in summary form HERE and HERE

So lets take this conversation back to where it belongs, at the point where massive money intersects with consequential presidential politics.

Globalists, via Wall Street international financiers, are determined to get TPP passed into law.  Only a few of the GOP candidates stand in the way; and off those few only one serious candidate is a risk to their objectives.   Candidate Donald Trump is the primary roadblock to the current globalist goals…. And as such, they support Marco Rubio. (more…)